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At least 127 records · Page 7

DroughtCast: A Machine Learning Forecast of the United States Drought Monitor

Drought is one of the most ecologically and economically devastating natural phenomena affecting the United States, causing the U.S. economy billions of dollars in damage, and driving widespread degradation of ecosystem health. Many drought indices are implemented to monitor the current extent and status of drought so stakeholders such as farmers and local governments can appropriately respond. Methods toforecast drought conditions weeks to months in advance are less common but would provide a more effective early warning system to enhance drought response, mitigation, and adaptation planning. To resolve this issue, we introduce DroughtCast, a machine learning framework for forecasting the United States Drought Monitor (USDM). DroughtCast operates on the knowledge that recent anomalies in hydrology and meteorology drive future changes in drought conditions. We use simulated meteorology and satellite observed soil moisture as inputs into a recurrent neural network to accurately forecast the USDM between 1 and 12 weeks into the future. Our analysis shows that precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature are the most important input variables when forecasting future drought conditions. Additionally, a case study of the 2017 Northern Plains Flash Drought shows that DroughtCast was able to forecast a very extreme drought event up to 12 weeks before its onset. Given the favorable forecasting skill of the model, DroughtCast may provide a promising tool for land managers and local governments in preparing for and mitigating the effects of drought.

Machine Learning↗

Toward a New Generation of Agricultural System Data, Models, and Knowledge Products: State of Agricultural Systems Science

We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales. Although current agricultural systems models have features that are needed for the Use Cases, we found that all of them have limitations and need to be improved. We identified common limitations across all Use Cases, namely 1) a scarcity of data for developing, evaluating, and applying agricultural system models and 2) inadequate knowledge systems that effectively communicate model results to society. We argue that these limitations are greater obstacles to progress than gaps in conceptual theory or available methods for using system models. New initiatives on open data show promise for addressing the data problem, but there also needs to be a cultural change among agricultural researchers to ensure that data for addressing the range of Use Cases are available for future model improvements and applications. We conclude that multiple platforms and multiple models are needed for model applications for different purposes. The Use Cases provide a useful framework for considering capabilities and limitations of existing models and data.

Livestock models↗

Commonality analysis as a knowledge acquisition problem

Commonality analysis is a systematic attempt to reduce costs in a large scale engineering project by discontinuing development of certain components during the design phase. Each discontinued component is replaced by another component that has sufficient functionality to be considered an appropriate substitute. The replacement strategy is driven by economic considerations. The System Commonality Analysis Tool (SCAT) is based on an oversimplified model of the problem and incorporates no knowledge acquisition component. In fact, the process of arriving at a compromise between functionality and economy is quite complex, with many opportunities for the application of expert knowledge. Such knowledge is of two types: general knowledge expressible as heuristics or mathematical laws potentially applicable to any set of components, and specific knowledge about the way in which elements of a given set of components interrelate. Examples of both types of knowledge are presented, and a framework is proposed for integrating the knowledge into a more general and useable tool.

Yeager, Dorian P.↗

Scaling of Liquefaction Systems and the Effects of Gravity

Recent exploration initiatives both by NASA and others have produced interest in the liquefaction of fluids produced through in-situ processes on the surfaces of the Moon and Mars. Liquefaction of fluids in cryogenic temperatures is routinely done at large scale for terrestrial uses, but these processes do not necessarily scale down in an economical or technologically feasible manner for the anticipated rates of initial Lunar or Martian production plants. To understand appropriate processes and scaling parameters, various options should be considered. A multi-center team at NASA considered multiple different refrigeration cycles and refrigeration integration methodologies as well as how these might fit into early liquefaction plants. These studies resulted in the conclusion that integrating the tubing on the storage tank wall (for both structural and heat spreading reasons), preferably the tank which will actually use the fluid, is the nearest path forward. Given that assumption on the general framework of the liquefaction system, there are several different heat transfer mechanisms to consider from a scaling perspective. These include forced convection heat removal to the refrigeration system (or cryocooler), conduction through the tank wall heat exchanger, and condensation (with some natural convection) on the inner tank wall. Analysis of these mechanisms shows that while there is some sensitivity to gravitational level, that within the bounds of current interest (Lunar and Martian applications), this sensitivity does not dominate the liquefaction application. While there will be some effect, perhaps in a limiting manner as the tanks approach some high fill level, system level testing on the Earth should suffice for the performance prediction and demonstration of liquefaction operations as applicable to Lunar and Martian applications. However, as one approaches orbital conditions, this general approach to liquefaction will not be appropriate as the scaling of the heat transfer mechanisms is not appropriate. At this point, other approaches will need to be developed and demonstrated in the micro-gravity environment.

Cryogenics↗

Advanced Metal Separation (AMS) via Marangoni Effect-driven Separation

For practical, economical, and sustainable human missions to the Moon, processing of lunar regolith and metal oxides is necessary for localized production of oxygen (O2) and metals that can be repurposed as rocket propellant, life support O2, and in-space manufactured parts. The primary candidates for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) regolith processing are carbothermic reductions and molten regolith electrolysis (MRE) which both produce oxygen and a reduced, deoxygenated metallic slag. A metal separation technique is still required to capture and purify metals from the deoxygenated slag for reuse in areas such as metallic part fabrication, structural or design frameworks, and metal catalyst production. The Marangoni Effect is best explained as mass transfer along an interface driven by surface tension gradients induced by temperature and concentration differences. Due to the temperature gradients, molten metal can be transported in this fashion to create thin films. This method can transport molten metal in the absence of gravity or mechanical motion and greatly increases the available surface area for a vacuum fractional separation process. In this study, a novel vacuum furnace induces the Marangoni Effect to fractionally decompose and separate valuable metals (e.g., aluminum) from thin films of molten metal via vacuum distillation. The proposed work will examine lunar regolith, metal-based recycling feedstocks, and metallic slags produced from the carbothermal reduction of regolith. Data and observations from this study could produce a simple yet effective method of refining lunar derived metals by taking advantage of the high vacuum environment present on the lunar surface.

ISRU↗

Knowledge Management

The emergence of rapidly expanding technologies for distribution and dissemination of information and knowledge has brought to focus the opportunities for development of knowledge-based networks, knowledge dissemination and knowledge management technologies and their potential applications for enhancing productivity of knowledge work. The challenging and complex problems of the future can be best addressed by developing the knowledge management as a new discipline based on an integrative synthesis of hard and soft sciences. A knowledge management professional society can provide a framework for catalyzing the development of proposed synthesis as well as serve as a focal point for coordination of professional activities in the strategic areas of education, research and technology development. Preliminary concepts for the development of the knowledge management discipline and the professional society are explored. Within this context of knowledge management discipline and the professional society, potential opportunities for application of information technologies for more effectively delivering or transferring information and knowledge (i.e., resulting from the NASA's Mission to Planet Earth) for the development of policy options in critical areas of national and global importance (i.e., policy decisions in economic and environmental areas) can be explored, particularly for those policy areas where a global collaborative knowledge network is likely to be critical to the acceptance of the policies.

Shariq, Syed Z.↗

Hurricane Sandy and Adaptation Pathways in New York: Lessons from a First-Responder City

Two central issues of climate change have become increasingly evident: Climate change will significantly affect cities; and rapid global urbanization will increase dramatically the number of individuals, amount of critical infrastructure, and means of economic production that are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic climate risks. Simultaneously, cities in many settings have begun to emerge as early adopters of climate change action strategies including greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation. The objective of this paper is to examine and analyze how officials of one city - the City of New York - have integrated a flexible adaptation pathways approach into the municipality's climate action strategy. This approach has been connected with the City's ongoing response to Hurricane Sandy, which struck in the October 2012 and resulted in damages worth more than US$19 billion. A case study narrative methodology utilizing the Wise et al. conceptual framework (see this volume) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the flexible adaptation pathways approach in New York City. The paper finds that Hurricane Sandy serves as a ''tipping point'' leading to transformative adaptation due to the explicit inclusion of increasing climate change risks in the rebuilding effort. The potential for transferability of the approach to cities varying in size and development stage is discussed, with elements useful across cities including the overall concept of flexible adaptation pathways, the inclusion of the full metropolitan region in the planning process, and the co-generation of climate-risk information by stakeholders and scientists.

adaptation pathways↗

Hawai‘i Island Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Assess Coastal Flood Risk with Measures of Land Cover Change, Flood Extent, and Vulnerability for Adaptation and Mitigation Planning on Hawai‘i Island

As the County of Hawai‘i faces an increased risk of extreme flooding events, sea-level rise, and other hazards associated with climate change, the need for building geospatial capacity to make better-informed decisions is critical. The County of Hawai‘i and Arizona State University partnered with NASA DEVELOP to complete a macro-scale risk analysis for the island of Hawai‘i analyzing flooding, land cover, vulnerability, and exposure factors using Earth observations and socio-economic data. The team assessed the variation in urban coastal vulnerability around the entire island of Hawai‘i, using satellite imagery of coastal land cover typology from satellite products such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The team made a sharable geodatabase containing datasets modeling vulnerability to coastal flooding as well as the Hawai‘i Flood Risk Toolbox (HiFloRT) which contains multiple tools for the County to map land cover, extreme rainfall and flood extent across the Island. The end products will allow the County of Hawai‘i to establish a protocol and standard framework for the utilization of Earth observations in future planning.

Garren Kalter↗

New developments in NASA quality assurance

The purpose of this talk is to examine and discuss NASA's basic quality concept, the policy and procedures which define and implement this concept and subsequently explore the NASA-Industry quality relationships which are essential to the success of NASA's quality assurance concept. It is important to emphasize that NASA's Quality Assurance program is predicated on the concept of an individually tailored quality program for each significant NASA procurement - particularly, large space systems. As a result, NASA's Quality Assurance program - to be effective - must be responsive to various technologies, hardware systems, and space missions. In addition, the program must be responsive to changing policies and practices in research, engineering and procurement. Key issues in the NASA-Contractor quality relationships in the framework of an over all NASA-Industry partnership include: (1) the necessity for NASA to effectively discharge its responsibility for providing clear and complete definition of quality requirements at all phases of the procurement cycle; (2) the right of the contractor to expect an explicit definition of NASA quality requirements in each RFP and contract and to request same if it is not provided; (3) the necessity for the contractor to have a dynamic and responsive quality program which is directed towards assuring that the hardware meets all technical requirements and to accomplish this in an effective and efficient manner; and (4) the critical need for investigation and study of the economic aspects of quality and an evaluation of our policies and practices based upon the results of such a study.

Condon, John E.↗

A Satellite Data-Driven, Client-Server Decision Support Application for Agricultural Water Resources Management

Water cycle extremes such as droughts and floods present a challenge for water managers and for policy makers responsible for the administration of water supplies in agricultural regions. In addition to the inherent uncertainties associated with forecasting extreme weather events, water planners need to anticipate water demands and water user behavior in a typical circumstances. This requires the use decision support systems capable of simulating agricultural water demand with the latest available data. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. In previous work we have demonstrated novel methodologies to use satellite-based observational technologies, in conjunction with hydro-economic models and state of the art data assimilation methods, to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and land allocation. These methods create an opportunity for new, cost-effective analysis tools to support policy and decision-making over large spatial extents. The methods can be driven with information from existing satellite-derived operational products, such as the Satellite Irrigation Management Support system (SIMS) operational over California, the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and using a modified light-use efficiency algorithm to retrieve crop yield from the synergistic use of MODIS and Landsat imagery. Here we present an integration of this modeling framework in a client-server architecture based on the Hydra platform. Assimilation and processing of resource intensive remote sensing data, as well as hydrologic and other ancillary information occur on the server side. This information is processed and summarized as attributes in water demand nodes that are part of a vector description of the water distribution network. With this architecture, our decision support system becomes a light weight 'app' that connects to the server to retrieve the latest information regarding water demands, land use, yields and hydrologic information required to run different management scenarios. Furthermore, this architecture ensures all agencies and teams involved in water management use the same, up-to-date information in their simulations.

Agricultural↗

Human exploration mission studies

The Office of Exploration has established a process whereby all NASA field centers and other NASA Headquarters offices participate in the formulation and analysis of a wide range of mission strategies. These strategies were manifested into specific scenarios or candidate case studies. The case studies provided a systematic approach into analyzing each mission element. First, each case study must address several major themes and rationale including: national pride and international prestige, advancement of scientific knowledge, a catalyst for technology, economic benefits, space enterprise, international cooperation, and education and excellence. Second, the set of candidate case studies are formulated to encompass the technology requirement limits in the life sciences, launch capabilities, space transfer, automation, and robotics in space operations, power, and propulsion. The first set of reference case studies identify three major strategies: human expeditions, science outposts, and evolutionary expansion. During the past year, four case studies were examined to explore these strategies. The expeditionary missions include the Human Expedition to Phobos and Human Expedition to Mars case studies. The Lunar Observatory and Lunar Outpost to Early Mars Evolution case studies examined the later two strategies. This set of case studies established the framework to perform detailed mission analysis and system engineering to define a host of concepts and requirements for various space systems and advanced technologies. The details of each mission are described and, specifically, the results affecting the advanced technologies required to accomplish each mission scenario are presented.

Cataldo, Robert L.↗

Monitoring Matang's Mangroves in Peninsular Malaysia through Earth observations: A globally relevant approach

Expansion of rotational timber harvesting of mangroves is set to increase, particularly given greater recognition of the economic, societal and environmental benefits. Generic and standardized procedures for monitoring mangroves are, therefore, needed to ensure their long-term sustainable utilisation. Focusing on the Matang Mangrove Forest Reserve (MMFR), Perak State, Peninsular Malaysia, thematic and continuous environmental descriptors with defined codes or units, including life form, forest age (years), canopy cover (%), above-ground biomass (Mg/ha) and relative amounts of woody debris (%), were retrieved from time-series data from spaceborne optical and single/dual polarimetric and interferometric RADAR. These were then combined for multiple points in time to generate land cover and evidence-based change maps according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) and using the framework of the Earth Observation Data for Ecosystem Monitoring (EODESM). Change maps were based on a pre-defined taxonomy, with focus on clear cutting and regrowth. Uncertainties surrounding the land cover and change maps were based on those determined for the environmental descriptors used for their generation and through comparison with independent retrieval from other EO data sources. For the MMFR and also for other mangroves worldwide where harvesting is occurring or being considered, a new approach and opportunity for supporting management of mangroves is presented, which has application for future planning of mangrove resources.

Richard Lucas↗

Transformations in Air Transportation Systems For the 21st Century

Globally, our transportation systems face increasingly discomforting realities: certain of the legacy air and ground infrastructures of the 20th century will not satisfy our 21st century mobility needs. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity for those nations unable to transform from the 20th to 21st century systems. Clearly, new thinking is required regarding business models that cater to consumers value of time, airspace architectures that enable those new business models, and technology strategies for innovating at the system-of-networks level. This lecture proposes a structured way of thinking about transformation from the legacy systems of the 20th century toward new systems for the 21st century. The comparison and contrast between the legacy systems of the 20th century and the transformed systems of the 21st century provides insights into the structure of transformation of air transportation. Where the legacy systems tend to be analog (versus digital), centralized (versus distributed), and scheduled (versus on-demand) for example, transformed 21st century systems become capable of scalability through technological, business, and policy innovations. Where air mobility in our legacy systems of the 20th century brought economic opportunity and quality of life to large service markets, transformed air mobility of the 21st century becomes more equitable available to ever-thinner and widely distributed populations. Several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems create new foundations for 21st thinking about air transportation. One of the technological developments of importance arises from complexity science and modern network theory. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of robustness, resilience, and other metrics. The lecture offers an air transportation system topology and a scale-free network linkage graphic as framework for transportation system innovation. Successful outcomes of innovation in air transportation could lay the foundations for new paradigms for aircraft and their operating capabilities, air transportation system topologies, and airspace architectures and procedural concepts. These new paradigms could support scalable alternatives for the expansion of future air mobility to more consumers in more parts of the world.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗

Exploring Ridesharing in Passenger Urban Air Mobility: A Comparative Analysis

There is growing interest in urban air mobility (UAM) as an alternative for passenger and cargo transport around metropolitan areas in a multimodal transportation system that leverages small, electric aircraft. Ridesharing has been proposed as a means of making UAM passenger trips more affordable and environmentally friendly. We present a UAM ridesharing model integrated into an existing computational framework for analyzing daily work commute trips within a metropolitan area. We leverage this model to estimate the potential demand for ridesharing-enabled UAM trips within six metropolitan areas across the United States: Chicago, IL; Cleveland, OH; Dallas, TX; Denver, CO; New York City, NY; and Orlando, FL. We compare results for each metropolitan area with and without ridesharing. Results indicate that ridesharing enables at least an order of magnitude more UAM-preferring passengers than without ridesharing, though specifics vary across metropolitan areas and network sizes. Enabling ridesharing in UAM also considerably lowers the mean and mode value of time for passengers that select the UAM mode, indicating that ridesharing can help make UAM more economically accessible to a larger set of the population. An important caveat is that the UAM ridesharing model does not account for operational constraints, such as aerodrome capacity and aircraft availability, and relies on a perfect knowledge of passenger movements and mode preferences. This leads to high UAM ridesharing volumes that are unlikely to reflect real-world UAM operations and thus serves as an upper bound estimate.

advanced air mobility↗

Exploring Ridesharing in Passenger Urban Air Mobility: A Comparative Analysis

There is growing interest in urban air mobility (UAM) as an alternative for passenger and cargo transport around metropolitan areas in a multimodal transportation system that leverages small, electric aircraft. Ridesharing has been proposed as a means of making UAM passenger trips more affordable and environmentally friendly. We present a UAM ridesharing model integrated into an existing computational framework for analyzing daily work commute trips within a metropolitan area. We leverage this model to estimate the potential demand for ridesharing-enabled UAM trips within six metropolitan areas across the United States: Chicago, IL; Cleveland, OH; Dallas, TX; Denver, CO; New York City, NY; and Orlando, FL. We compare results for each metropolitan area with and without ridesharing. Results indicate that ridesharing enables at least an order of magnitude more UAM-preferring passengers than without ridesharing, though specifics vary across metropolitan areas and network sizes. Enabling ridesharing in UAM also considerably lowers the mean and mode value of time for passengers that select the UAM mode, indicating that ridesharing can help make UAM more economically accessible to a larger set of the population. An important caveat is that the UAM ridesharing model does not account for operational constraints, such as aerodrome capacity and aircraft availability, and relies on a perfect knowledge of passenger movements and mode preferences. This leads to high UAM ridesharing volumes that are unlikely to reflect real-world UAM operations and thus serves as an upper bound estimate.

advanced air mobility↗

Carbon Monitoring and Above Ground Biomass Trends: Anchor Forest Opportunities for Tribal, Private and Federal Relationships

There are more than 300 million hectares of forested land whithin the conterminious United States essential to sustaining the myriad social/cultural, economic, and ecologic benefits society enjoys from these lands. Nationwide, millions of forested hectares, both private and public, are disappearing functionally and physically throguh serve wildfire fire and land coversion. On many of these lands, management, centered on fire supression, has led to reductions in forest resilience to wildfire. Lands, overstocked with accumulated fuel and faced with a changing climate, are expected to continue this legacy of fire and deteriorating health. A paradigm shift is needed to face the challenges confronting forests and enhance collaborative efforts across multiple foret ownerships. Our ability to leverage emerging technologies and pair them with the knowledge of indigenous peoples presents new opportunities for success. The objectives of this study were to 1) assess the Anchor Forest concept as a framework to leverage collaborative motivations and leadership by indigenous peoples (Tribes) in eastern Washington State to improve forest ecosystem health across legal and political boundaries, 'cross-boundary' management, and 2) demonstrate how the NASA carbon monitoring system (CMS) mapping of products of regional forestland above ground biomass (AGB) density and temporal trends can provide information that supports decisionmakers in their efforts to collaboratively approach improving forest health conditions through management activities.

Tribes; Anchor Forests; Forest Resilience; Collabo↗

Human Missions to Europa and Titan - Why Not?

This report describes a long-term development plan to enable human exploration of the outer solar system, with a focus on Europa and Titan. These are two of the most interesting moons of Jupiter and Saturn, respectively, because they are the places in the solar system with the greatest potential for harboring extraterrestrial life. Since human expeditions to these worlds are considered impossible with current capabilities, the proposal of a well-organized sequence of steps towards making this a reality was formulated. The proposed Development Plan, entitled Theseus, is the outcome of a recent multinational study by a group of students in the framework of the Master of Space Studies (MSS) 2004 course at the International Space University (ISU). The Theseus Program includes the necessary development strategies in key scientific and technological areas that are essential for identifying the requirements for the exploration of the outer planetary moons. Some of the topics that are analysed throughout the plan include: scientific observations at Europa and Titan, advanced propulsion and nuclear power systems, in-situ resource utilization, radiation mitigation techniques, closed life support systems, habitation for long-term spaceflight, and artificial gravity. In addition to the scientific and technological aspects of the Theseus Program, it was recognized that before any research and development work may begin, some level of program management must be established. Within this chapter, legal issues, national and international policy, motivation, organization and management, economic considerations, outreach, education, ethics, and social implications are all considered with respect to four possible future scenarios which enable human missions to the outer solar system. The final chapter of the report builds upon the foundations set by Theseus through a case study. This study illustrates how such accomplishments could influence a mission to Europa to search for evidence of life in its subsurface oceans. The future remains unpredictable, as does the realization of any of these possibilities. However, projects such as this remind us that the final frontier for humans is truly outer space, and only our imagination will determine where the frontier stops. We can dream of visiting other planetary systems and perhaps even galaxies, but we must begin closer, and considering the scope of our known universe, Europa and Titan are very close indeed.

FROM↗

Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided inputs through in-depth discussion in breakout sessions, plenary sessions on break-out results, and several panels that provided key insights about indicators, lessons learned through experience with developing and implementing indicators, and thoughts on how the NCA could proceed to develop indicators for the NCA.

Kenney, Melissa A.↗