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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Scaling the Microbial Ecology of Soil Carbon (Final Report)

This work developed new techniques and discoveries in quantitative microbial ecology, focusing on soil carbon. The work advanced a new approach to stable isotope probing (SIP), adding a quantitative way to infer taxon-specific rates of growth, mortality, and associated carbon (C) fluxes in soil microbial communities, a framework that the work demonstrated can scale from individual microbial taxa to the integrated soil system. Among the “-omics” techniques in microbial ecology, those based on stable isotope probing (SIP) hold particular promise for addressing the challenge of scaling from molecules to the major biogeochemical element cycles. Because SIP measures directly the fluxes of elements into nucleic acids, it physically connects element flux to genetic information. The work explored new ways to quantify taxon-specific C-use and growth efficiency and tested hypotheses about responses of the soil microbial community to experimental warming and to latitudinal variation in temperature. This work pushed the frontier of –omics enabled techniques by demonstrating their applicability at the ecosystem scale, and by relating taxon-specific isotope assimilation to dissimilatory processes in the C cycle, thereby enabling the identification of organisms especially responsible for soil C loss, in other words, attributing ecosystem-scale element fluxes to individual microbial taxa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flux Seasonality Metrics Database: A companion dataset for FLUXNET annual product

This dataset include standardized phenological transition dates, and derived season lengths of active, dormant and transition seasons of ecosystem carbon and energy fluxes, as reported in FLUXNET. Such metrics are unique in that they characterize the seasonal dynamics of these fluxes in their own terms rather than in reference to traditional phenology indicators that mostly relate to vegetation structural characteristics. The Flux Seasonality Metrics Database (FSMD) generated 17 standardized seasonality metrics for 4 different fluxes including gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), latent heat (LE) and sensible heat (H) reported in FLUXNET2015 Dataset for about 200 sites and 1500 site-years of data globally. Each metric is reported as an estimate and a confidence interval, which is a function of data coverage and flux variability. We anticipate that the FSMD will facilitate new model validation exercises, and stimulate new research in global change and Earth science disciplines where land-atmosphere exchange dynamics play a central role.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Informing Nature-based Climate Solutions for the United States with the best-available science

Nature-based Climate Solutions (NbCS) are managed alterations to ecosystems designed to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While they have growing public and private support, the realizable benefits and unintended consequences of NbCS are not well understood. At regional scales where policy decisions are often made, NbCS benefits are estimated from soil and tree survey data that can miss important carbon sources and sinks within an ecosystem, and do not reveal the biophysical impacts of NbCS for local water and energy cycles. The only direct observations of ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes, for example, by eddy covariance flux towers, have not yet been systematically assessed for what they can tell us about NbCS potentials, and state-of-the-art remote sensing products and land-surface models are not yet being widely used to inform NbCS policymaking or implementation. As a result, there is a critical mismatch between the point- and tree-scale data most often used to assess NbCS benefits and impacts, the ecosystem and landscape scales where NbCS projects are implemented, and the regional to continental scales most relevant to policymaking. Here, we propose a research agenda to confront these gaps using data and tools that have long been used to understand the mechanisms driving ecosystem carbon and energy cycling, but have not yet been widely applied to NbCS. Furthermore, we outline steps for creating robust NbCS assessments at both local to regional scales that are informed by ecosystem-scale observations, and which consider concurrent biophysical impacts, future climate feedbacks, and the need for equitable and inclusive NbCS implementation strategies. We contend that these research goals can largely be accomplished by shifting the scales at which pre-existing tools are applied and blended together, although we also highlight some opportunities for more radical shifts in approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prior biosphere model impact on global terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated from OCO-2 retrievals

This study assesses the impact of different state of the art global biospheric CO2 flux models, when applied as prior information, on inverse model “top-down” estimates of terrestrial CO2 fluxes obtained when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations. This is done with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using synthetic CO2 column-average dry air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals sampled at the OCO-2 satellite spatiotemporal frequency. The OSSEs utilized a 4-D variational (4D-Var) assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) to estimate CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes using synthetic OCO-2 observations. The impact of biosphere models in inverse model estimates of NEE is quantified by conducting OSSEs using the NASA-CASA, CASA-GFED, SiB-4, and LPJ models as prior estimates and using NEE from the multi-model ensemble mean of the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project as the “truth”. Results show that the assimilation of simulated XCO2 retrievals at OCO-2 observing modes over land results in posterior NEE estimates which generally reproduce “true” NEE globally and over terrestrial TransCom-3 regions that are well-sampled. However, we find larger spread among posterior NEE estimates, when using different prior NEE fluxes, in regions and seasons that have limited OCO-2 observational coverage and a large range in “bottom-up” NEE fluxes. Seasonally averaged posterior NEE estimates had standard deviations (SD) of ∼10 % to ∼50 % of the multi-model-mean NEE for different TransCom-3 land regions with significant NEE fluxes (regions/seasons with a NEE flux ≥0.5 PgC/yr). On a global average, the seasonally averaged residual impact of the prior model NEE assumption on the posterior NEE spread is ∼10 %–20 % of the posterior NEE mean. Additional OCO-2 OSSE simulations demonstrate that posterior NEE estimates are also sensitive to the assumed prior NEE flux uncertainty statistics, with spread in posterior NEE estimates similar to those when using variable prior model NEE fluxes. In fact, the sensitivity of posterior NEE estimates to prior error statistics was larger than prior flux values in some regions/times in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere where sufficient OCO-2 data were available and large differences between the prior and truth were evident. Overall, even with the availability of spatiotemporally dense OCO-2 data, noticeable residual differences (up to ∼20 %–30 % globally and 50 % regionally) in posterior NEE flux estimates remain that were caused by the choice of prior model flux values and the specification of prior flux uncertainties.

Sajeev Philip↗
DOE OSTI2022

Movement with meaning: integrating information into meta-ecology

Fluxes of matter, energy and information over space and time contribute to ecosystems' functioning and stability. The meta-ecosystem framework addresses the dynamics of ecosystems linked by these fluxes but, to date, has focused solely on energy and matter. Here, we synthesize existing knowledge of information's effects on local and connected ecosystems and demonstrate how new hypotheses emerge from the integration of ecological information into meta-ecosystem theory. First, we begin by defining information and reviewing how it flows among ecosystems to affect connectivity, local ecosystem function and meta-ecosystem dynamics. We focus on the role of semiotic information: that which can reduce an individual's – or a group's – uncertainty about the state of the world. Semiotic information elicits behavioral, developmental and life history responses from organisms, potentially leading to fitness consequences. Organisms' responses to information can ripple through trophic interactions to influence ecosystem processes, their local and regional dynamics, and the spatiotemporal flows of energy and matter, therefore information should affect meta-ecosystem dynamics such as stability and productivity. While specific subdisciplines of ecology currently consider different types of information (e.g. social and cultural information, natural and artificial light or sound, body condition, genotype and phenotype), many ecological models currently account for neither the spatio–temporal distribution of information nor its perception by organisms. We identify the empirical, theoretical and philosophical challenges in developing a robust information meta-ecology and offer ways to overcome them. Finally, we present new hypotheses for how accounting for realistic information perception and responses by organisms could impact processes such as home range formation and spatial insurance, and thus our understanding of ecological dynamics across spatial and temporal scales. Accounting for information will be essential to understanding how dynamics such as fitness, organismal movement and trophic interactions influence meta-ecosystem functioning, and predicting how ecosystem processes are affected by anthropogenic pressures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Carbon cycling in high-latitude ecosystems

The carbon-rich soils and peatlands of high-latitude ecosystems could substantially influence atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in a changing climate. Currently, cold, often waterlogged conditions retard decomposition, and release of carbon back to the atmosphere may be further slowed by physical protection of organic matter in permafrost. As a result, many northern ecosystems accumulate carbon over time (Billings et al., 1982; Poole and Miller, 1982), and although such rates of accumulation are low, thousands of years of development have left Arctic ecosystems with an extremely high soil carbon content; Schlesinger's (1984) average value of 20.4 kg C/m(sup 2) leads to a global estimate of 163 x 10(exp 15) g C. All GCM simulations of a doubled CO2 climate predict the greatest warming to occur in the polar regions (Dickinson, 1986; Mitchell, 1989). Given the extensive northern carbon pools and the strong sensitivity of decomposition processes to temperature, even a slight warming of the soil could dramatically alter the carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems. If warming accelerates rates of decomposition more than rates of primary production, a sizeable additional accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere could occur. Furthermore, CH4 produced in anaerobic soils and peatlands of the Arctic already composes a good percentage of the global efflux (Cicerone and Oremlund, 1988); if northern soils become warmer and wetter as a whole, CH4 emissions could dramatically rise. A robust understanding of the primary controls of carbon fluxes in Arctic ecosystems is critical. As a framework for a systematic examination of these controls, we discussed a conceptual model of regional-scale Arctic carbon turnover, including CH4 production, and based upon the Century soil organic matter model.

Townsend, Alan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaporation and Transpiration From Multiple Proximal Forests and Wetlands

Abstract Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and altering ecosystem function, including water flux to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration (ET). ET is made up of evaporation (E) via non‐stomatal surfaces, and transpiration (T) through plant stomata which are impacted by global changes in different ways. E and T are difficult to measure independently at the ecosystem scale, especially across multiple sites that represent different land use and land management strategies. To address this gap in understanding, we applied flux variance similarity (FVS) to quantify how E and T differ across 13 different ecosystems measured using eddy covariance in a 10 × 10 km area from the CHEESEHEAD19 experiment in northern Wisconsin, USA. The study sites included eight forests with a large deciduous broadleaf component, three evergreen needleleaf forests, and two wetlands. Average T/ET for the study period averaged nearly 52% in forested sites and 45% in wetlands, with larger values after excluding periods following rain events when evaporation from canopy interception may be expected. A dominance analysis revealed that environmental variables explained on average 69% of the variance of half‐hourly T, which decreased from summer to autumn. Deciduous and evergreen forests showed similar E trajectories over time despite differences in vegetation phenology, and vapor pressure deficit explained some 13% of the variance E in wetlands but only 5% or less in forests. Retrieval of E and T within a dense network of flux towers lends confidence that FVS is a promising approach for comparing ecosystem hydrology across multiple sites to improve our process‐based understanding of ecosystem water fluxes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying carbon budget, crop yields and their responses to environmental variability using the ecosys model for U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems

As one of the major agricultural production areas in the world, the United States (U.S.) Midwest plays a vital role in the global food supply and agricultural ecosystem services. Although significant efforts have been made in modeling the carbon cycle dynamics over this area, large uncertainty still exists in the previous simulations in terms of reproducing individual components of the carbon cycle and their responses to environmental variability. Here we evaluated the performance of an advanced agroecosystem model, ecosys, in simulating carbon budgets over the U.S. Midwest, considering both the magnitude of carbon flux/yield and its response to environmental (climate and soil) variability. We conducted model simulations and evaluations at 7 cropland eddy-covariance sites as well as over 293 counties of Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa in the U.S. Midwest. The site-level simulations showed that ecosys captured both the magnitude and seasonal patterns of carbon fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Reco)), leaf area index (LAI), and dynamic plant carbon allocation processes, with R2 equal to 0.92, 0.87, 0.87, and 0.78 for GPP, NEE, Reco, and LAI, respectively across all the sites compared with the observations. For regional scale simulations, ecosys reproduced the spatial distribution and interannual variability of corn and soybean yields with the constraints of observed yields and a new remotely sensed GPP product, with R2 of multi-year averaged simulated and observed yield equal 0.83 and 0.80 for corn and soybean, respectively. The simulated responses of carbon cycle dynamics to environmental variability were consistent with that from the empirical observations at both site and regional scales. Furthermore, our results demonstrated the applicability of ecosys in simulating the carbon cycle and soil carbon dynamics of the U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems under different climate and soil conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an open-source regional data assimilation system in PEcAn v. 1.7.2: application to carbon cycle reanalysis across the contiguous US using SIPNET

Abstract. The ability to monitor, understand, and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle requires the capacity to robustly and coherently synthesize multiple streams of information that each provide partial information about different pools and fluxes. In this study, we introduce a new terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system, built on the PEcAn model–data eco-informatics system, and its application for the development of a proof-of-concept carbon “reanalysis” product that harmonizes carbon pools (leaf, wood, soil) and fluxes (GPP, Ra, Rh, NEE) across the contiguous United States from 1986–2019. We first calibrated this system against plant trait and flux tower net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using a novel emulated hierarchical Bayesian approach. Next, we extended the Tobit–Wishart ensemble filter (TWEnF) state data assimilation (SDA) framework, a generalization of the common ensemble Kalman filter which accounts for censored data and provides a fully Bayesian estimate of model process error, to a regional-scale system with a calibrated localization. Combined with additional workflows for propagating parameter, initial condition, and driver uncertainty, this represents the most complete and robust uncertainty accounting available for terrestrial carbon models. Our initial reanalysis was run on an irregular grid of ∼ 500 points selected using a stratified sampling method to efficiently capture environmental heterogeneity. Remotely sensed observations of aboveground biomass (Landsat LandTrendr) and leaf area index (LAI) (MODIS MOD15) were sequentially assimilated into the SIPNET model. Reanalysis soil carbon, which was indirectly constrained based on modeled covariances, showed general agreement with SoilGrids, an independent soil carbon data product. Reanalysis NEE, which was constrained based on posterior ensemble weights, also showed good agreement with eddy flux tower NEE and reduced root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the calibrated forecast. Ultimately, PEcAn's new open-source regional data assimilation framework provides a scalable workflow for harmonizing multiple data constraints and providing a uniform synthetic platform for carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) as well as accelerating terrestrial carbon cycle research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recalibrating Best Practices, Challenges, and Limitations of Estimating Tree Transpiration Via Sap Flow

Purpose: Transpiration dominates hydrologic fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Sap flow is the most widely used method to quantify transpiration, and calibrations can improve the accuracy of these estimates. Despite numerous suggestions to perform and apply sap flow calibrations, seemingly few reports apply these recommendations. Here, we sought to determine the prevalence of calibration across sap flow methodology. Recent Findings: In this work, we reviewed tree sap flow literature over the past nine years and determined that only 5.3% of these publications documented the performance of calibrations, the application of coefficients from previous calibrations, or the application of correction factors using calibration data to ensure or improve accuracy of transpiration estimates. These data indicate that calibration has not been adopted as a best practice. However, these data may also reflect challenges to the performance and application of calibration indicating fundamental limitations of sap flow methods. Summary: We highlight the need for testing critical assumptions regarding calibration; specifically, that coefficients derived from calibrations on small stems are suitable for application to large stems and that different calibration approaches yield similar transpiration estimates. We encourage researchers to adopt calibration as a best practice for sap flow data and to explain how calibration was performed, how calibration data were applied, and to acknowledge and justify circumstances that preclude or do not necessitate calibration. Without the adoption of calibration and an improved understanding of its limitations, our understanding of transpiration and ability to quantify it using this technology will remain inadequate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recent increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme methane fluxes driven by changes in climate and vegetation in boreal and temperate wetland ecosystems

Climate warming is expected to increase global methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems. Although in situ eddy covariance (EC) measurements at ecosystem scales can potentially detect CH 4 flux changes, most EC systems have only a few years of data collected, so temporal trends in CH 4 remain uncertain. Here, we use established drivers to hindcast changes in CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) since the early 1980s. We trained a machine learning (ML) model on CH 4 flux measurements from 22 [methane-producing sites] in wetland, upland, and lake sites of the FLUXNET-CH 4 database with at least two full years of measurements across temperate and boreal biomes. The gradient boosting decision tree ML model then hindcasted daily FCH 4 over 1981-2018 using meteorological reanalysis data. We found that, mainly driven by rising temperature, half of the sites (n = 11) showed significant increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme FCH 4 , with increases in FCH 4 of ca. 10% or higher found in the fall from 1981–1989 to 2010–2018. The annual trends were driven by increases during summer and fall, particularly at high-CH 4 -emitting fen sites dominated by aerenchymatous plants. We also found that the distribution of days of extremely high FCH 4 (defined according to the 95th percentile of the daily FCH 4 values over a reference period) have become more frequent during the last four decades and currently account for 10–40% of the total seasonal fluxes. The share of extreme FCH 4 days in the total seasonal fluxes was greatest in winter for boreal/taiga sites and in spring for temperate sites, which highlights the increasing importance of the non-growing seasons in annual budgets. Our results shed light on the effects of climate warming on wetlands, which appears to be extending the CH 4 emission seasons and boosting extreme emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Importance of Viral Contributions to Soil Carbon Dynamics

ABSTRACT Biogeochemical models for predicting carbon dynamics increasingly include microbial processes, reflecting the importance of microorganisms in regulating the movement of carbon between soils and the atmosphere. Soil viruses can redirect carbon among various chemical pools, indicating a need for quantification and development soil carbon models that explicitly represent viral dynamics. In this opinion, we derive a global estimate of carbon potentially released from microbial biomass by viral infections in soils and synthesize a quantitative soil carbon budget from existing literature that explicitly includes viral impacts. We then adapt known mechanisms by which viruses influence carbon cycles in marine ecosystems into a soil‐explicit framework. Finally, we explore the diversity of virus–host interactions during infection and conceptualize how infection mode may impact soil carbon fate. Our synthesis highlights key knowledge gaps hindering the incorporation of viruses into soil carbon cycling research and generates specific hypotheses to test in the pursuit of better quantifying microbial dynamics that explain ecosystem‐scale carbon fluxes. The importance of identifying critical drivers behind soil carbon dynamics, including these elusive but likely pervasive viral mechanisms of carbon redistribution, becomes more pressing with climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using a Large Language Model as a Building Block to Generate Usable Validation and Verification Suite for OpenMP

In the HPC area, both hardware and software move quickly. Often new hardware is developed and deployed, the corresponding software stack, including compilers and other tools, are under active development while leading edge software developers are working to port and tune their applications, all at the same time. While the software ecosystem is in flux, one of the key challenges for users is obtaining insight into the state of implementation of key features in the programming languages and models their applications are using – whether they have been implemented, and whether the implementation conforms to the specification, especially for newly implemented features (less tested by widespread use). OpenMP is one of the most prominent shared memory programming models used for on-node programming in HPC. With the shift towards accelerators (such as GPUs and FPGAs) and heterogeneous programming OpenMP features are getting more complex. It is natural to ask whether generative AI approaches, and large language models (LLMs) in particular, can help in producing validation and verification test suites to allow users better and faster insights into the availability and correctness of OpenMP features of interest. In this work, we explore the use of ChatGPT-4 to generate a suite of tests for OpenMP features. We have chosen a set of directives and clauses, a total of 78 combinations, which first appeared in OpenMP 3.0 (released in May 2008) but are also relevant for accelerators. We prompted ChatGPT to generate tests in the C and Fortran languages, for both host (CPU) and device (accelerator). On the Summit super-computer using the GNU implementation, we found that, of the 78 generated tests 67 C tests and 43 Fortran tests compiled successfully and fewer than those executed to completion. On further analysis we show that not all generated tests are valid. We document the process, results, and provide detailed analysis regarding the quality of tests generated. With the aim of providing input to a production quality validation and verification suite, we manually implement the corrections required to make the tests valid according to the current OpenMP specification. We quantify this effort as small, medium, or large, and record the lines of code changed to correct the invalid tests. With the corrected tests we validate recent implementations from HPE, AMD, and GNU on the Frontier supercomputer. Our experiment and subsequent analysis show that although LLMs are capable of producing HPC specific codes, they are limited by their understanding of the deeper semantics and restrictions of programming models such as OpenMP. Unsurprisingly more commonly used features have better support, while some OpenMP 3.0 directives such as sections and tasking are not universally supported on accelerators. We demonstrate that successful compilation and execution to completion are inadequate metrics for evaluating generated code and that, at this time, commodity LLMs require expert intervention for code verification. This points to gaps in the training data that is currently available for HPC. We demonstrate that with "small" effort 37% of generated invalid C tests and 63% of generated invalid Fortran tests could be corrected. This improves productivity of test generation as we circumvent writing from scratch and the common programming errors associated with it.

Pophale, Swaroop [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000185446367)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Agricultural impacts on nitrogen cycling: climate and air pollution

Ratios of key soil nitrogen fluxes from two terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) are compared to observational values in the literature. The fluxes included nitrification, denitrification, mineralization, immobilization and plant uptake, with the latter two fluxes partitioned into NH 4 + and NO 3 -. The two TEMs, ELMv1-ECA and CLM5.0, originated from a common model but have diverged in their handling of plant/microbe competition for soil mineral N. Both models predict unrealistically low assimilation (i.e, immobilization) of NO 3 - by soil bacteria compared to literature values and unrealistic dominance of plant uptake by a single form of mineral nitrogen (NO 3 - for ELM, NH 4 + for CLM5.0). Global ratios of net mineralization (i.e., gross mineralization – gross immobilization) appear unrealistically high in both models compared to literature values while rates of nitrification/gross mineralization appear unrealistically high (ELM) and low (CLM5.0). The ratio of denitrification/nitrification is likely high in both models (3:1 ELM; 2:1 CLM5.0), but few experimental data exist to evaluate these ratios, in part because nitrification and denitrification are quantified with different techniques and generally are not measured simultaneously. The same is true of plant N uptake and microbial N assimilation. Single grid point experiments with CLM5.0 at the Hubbard Brook long-term ecological research site in New Hampshire indicate that the parameterization of nitrification is a potentially important focus area that can bring soil nitrogen flux ratios into better agreement with observations. The current flux ratios raise questions about the credibility of present and future simulations of mineral N limitation on the carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane dynamics described through vegetation-soil interactions in bald cypress and other bottomland hardwood forests

Past estimates of CH4 fluxes from forested swamps ranged from 10 to 106 mg C m-2 d-1 in temperate regions and 44 to144 mg C m-2 d-1 in subtropical and tropical regions. However, climate change could alter these rates in wetlands where efflux is predominantly controlled by water level, temperature, and plant composition. While the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley has experienced the largest loss of forested wetlands in the U.S, supporting 21 to 25 million acres of bottomland hardwoods before European settlement, an estimated 5 million acres remain. This landscapes remain under-studied from a CH4 flux perspective, particularly in determining woody vegetation contributions to landscape CH4 emissions. Our overarching objective are to (1) improve our understanding of the controls on CH4 fluxes in forested mineral soil wetlands, and (2) to better understand the effects of landscape position and forest composition on the CH4 fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. Our main goal is to elucidate the

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating CO 2 fluxes through integrating spatial and temporal input layers via deep learning algorithms

Background Accurate estimation of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 fluxes (Fc) is essential for understanding carbon cycle processes and assessing ecosystem carbon budgets. However, conventional modeling approaches often emphasize temporal dynamics while overlooking the pronounced spatial heterogeneity within the footprint of eddy covariance (EC) towers, potentially limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability of Fc estimates. To address this challenge, we developed a spatiotemporal model that integrates high-resolution footprint-weighted spatial information with sequential environmental drivers. Results The integrated model combines a deeper graph convolutional network to characterize fine-scale spatial variability within EC footprints and a gated recurrent unit network to capture temporal dependencies in biophysical conditions. Using multi-year flux tower observations, remote sensing vegetation indices and footprint modeling, we evaluate the proposed method across three land cover types. This spatiotemporal model consistently outperforms temporal-only and spatial-only baselines, achieving the highest overall accuracy (R 2 = 0.9569) and the lowest RMSE (1.8128 μmol m −2 s −1 ) and MAE (1.1939 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Performance gains are particularly evident in ecosystems with strong vegetation heterogeneity, where spatial structure substantially modulates Fc variability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of joint modeling spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics for improving Fc estimation and provides a robust method for advancing footprint-based Fc estimates across diverse ecosystems, supporting refined assessments of terrestrial carbon fluxes, and enhancing scientific foundations for carbon studies.

CO2 flux estimate↗