Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Estimate at completion”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

Incorporating TRMM and Other High-Quality Estimates into the One-Degree Daily (1DD) Global Precipitation Product

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) precipitation dataset was recently developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The IDD provides a globally-complete, observation-only estimate of precipitation on a daily 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). In the latitude band 40 N - 40 S the IDD uses the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI), a GPI-like IR product with the T(sub b) threshold and (single) conditional rain rate determined locally for each month by the frequency of precipitation in the GPROF SSNU product and by the precipitation amount in the GPCP satellite-gauge (SG) combination. Outside 40 N - 40 S the 1DD uses a scaled TOVS precipitation estimate that has adjustments based on the TMPI and the SG. This first-generation 1DD has been in beta test preparatory to release as an official GPCP product. In this paper we discuss further development of the 1DD framework to allow the direct incorporation of TRMM and other high-quality precipitation estimates. First, these data are generally sparse (typically from low-orbit satellites), so a fair amount of work was devoted to data boundaries. Second, these data are not the same as the original 1DD estimates, so we had to give careful consideration to the best scheme for forcing the 1DD to sum to the SG for the month. Finally, the non-sun-synchronous, low-inclination orbit occupied by TRMM creates interesting variations against the sun-synchronous, high-inclination orbits occupied by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellites that carry the SSM/I. Examples will be given of each of the development issues, then comparisons will be made to daily raingauge analyses.

Huffman, George J.

COSTMODL: An automated software development cost estimation tool

The cost of developing computer software continues to consume an increasing portion of many organizations' total budgets, both in the public and private sector. As this trend develops, the capability to produce reliable estimates of the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product takes on increasing importance. The COSTMODL program was developed to provide an in-house capability to perform development cost estimates for NASA software projects. COSTMODL is an automated software development cost estimation tool which incorporates five cost estimation algorithms including the latest models for the Ada language and incrementally developed products. The principal characteristic which sets COSTMODL apart from other software cost estimation programs is its capacity to be completely customized to a particular environment. The estimation equations can be recalibrated to reflect the programmer productivity characteristics demonstrated by the user's organization, and the set of significant factors which effect software development costs can be customized to reflect any unique properties of the user's development environment. Careful use of a capability such as COSTMODL can significantly reduce the risk of cost overruns and failed projects.

Roush, George B.

Weight and cost forecasting for advanced manned space vehicles

A mass and cost estimating computerized methology for predicting advanced manned space vehicle weights and costs was developed. The user friendly methology designated MERCER (Mass Estimating Relationship/Cost Estimating Relationship) organizes the predictive process according to major vehicle subsystem levels. Design, development, test, evaluation, and flight hardware cost forecasting is treated by the study. This methodology consists of a complete set of mass estimating relationships (MERs) which serve as the control components for the model and cost estimating relationships (CERs) which use MER output as input. To develop this model, numerous MER and CER studies were surveyed and modified where required. Additionally, relationships were regressed from raw data to accommodate the methology. The models and formulations which estimated the cost of historical vehicles to within 20 percent of the actual cost were selected. The result of the research, along with components of the MERCER Program, are reported. On the basis of the analysis, the following conclusions were established: (1) The cost of a spacecraft is best estimated by summing the cost of individual subsystems; (2) No one cost equation can be used for forecasting the cost of all spacecraft; (3) Spacecraft cost is highly correlated with its mass; (4) No study surveyed contained sufficient formulations to autonomously forecast the cost and weight of the entire advanced manned vehicle spacecraft program; (5) No user friendly program was found that linked MERs with CERs to produce spacecraft cost; and (6) The group accumulation weight estimation method (summing the estimated weights of the various subsystems) proved to be a useful method for finding total weight and cost of a spacecraft.

Williams, Raymond

Verification of the accuracy of GEM-L2 in response to criticism by Lambeck and Coleman

The objective was to evaluate the accuracy of the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-L2 and its improvement in estimating Lageos orbits in order to provide better baselines for plate tectonics, improved polar motion and Earth rotation. Analyses and comparisons with other models are made to verify accuracy in contrast to the Lambeck and Coleman result which denied the authors' accuracy estimates. The analysis presented completely verifies the accuracy of the GEM-L2 model and disproves the statistical methods of Lambeck and Coleman rejecting the accuracy of GEM-L2 as published in their report. The baselines derived from Lageos with GEM-L2 were estimated to have a 2 cm uncertainty due to the errors in the GEM-L2 gravity model which is supported by the results given. The calibration tests indicate that the errors in GEM-L2 should be reduced by about 30 percent which is in the opposite direction to the result obtained by Lambeck and Coleman.

Lerch, F. J.

Thermal Cycling for Development of Hybrid Fuel for a Notional Mars Ascent Vehicle

A Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) would be a critical part of a potential Mars sample return campaign. As currently envisioned, the MAV would launch samples from Mars into Mars orbit. Challenging requirements would be placed on a MAV as it would need to be able to survive in the harsh Martian environment which can get as cold as -120°C in the winter. At these cold temperatures, survival heating could be necessary to keep the MAV within the allowable flight temperature range. Estimates for survival heating power show that a fuel capable of operating at low temperature would significantly reduce the total required energy of the MAV. This has led to consideration of a hybrid propulsion system due to its anticipated low temperature capability. A new wax-based fuel, SP7, has been developed for a notional MAV mission. Thermal modeling of the fuel in the Mars environment was completed in order to estimate the temperature response of the fuel during Mars diurnal temperature cycling. Preliminary thermal testing was conducted to determine the max temperature range, radial gradient, and ramp rate the fuel could tolerate without cracking. The modeling and preliminary testing was used to develop a comprehensive, 100-day thermal cycling campaign. A total of 200 cycles are planned that are representative of 200 Martian diurnal cycles, roughly one-third of a Martian year. After 150 cycles, the fuel samples show no signs of cracking that would jeopardize the rocket’s performance. Though not yet complete, this testing is showing that SP7 has the potential to successfully be used on a MAV mission.

Farias, Edgardo

Refining Lucy Mission Delta-V During Spacecraft Design Using Trajectory Optimization Within High-Fidelity Monte Carlo Maneuver Analysis

Recent advances linking medium-fidelity trajectory optimization and high-fidelity trajectory propagation/maneuver design software with Monte Carlo maneuver analysis and parallel processing enabled realistic statistical delta-V estimation well before launch. Completing this high-confidence, refined statistical maneuver analysis early enabled release of excess delta-V margin for increased dry mass margin for the Lucy Jupiter Trojan flyby mission. By 3.3 years before launch, 16 of 34 TCMs had 1000 re-optimized trajectory design samples, yielding tens of m/s lower 99%-probability delta-V versus targeting maneuvers to one optimal trajectory. One year later, 1000 re-optimized samples of all deterministic maneuvers and subsequent flybys further lowered estimated delta-V.

Trojan

Parametric study of potential early commercial power plants Task 3-A MHD cost analysis

The development of costs for an MHD Power Plant and the comparison of these costs to a conventional coal fired power plant are reported. The program is divided into three activities: (1) code of accounts review; (2) MHD pulverized coal power plant cost comparison; (3) operating and maintenance cost estimates. The scope of each NASA code of account item was defined to assure that the recently completed Task 3 capital cost estimates are consistent with the code of account scope. Improvement confidence in MHD plant capital cost estimates by identifying comparability with conventional pulverized coal fired (PCF) power plant systems is undertaken. The basis for estimating the MHD plant operating and maintenance costs of electricity is verified.

Source record

Morphology of buried craters: Lava thickness estimates by simulated flooding

Partially and completely buried craters on planetary surfaces are used as probes to determine the thickness and extent of the overlying material as well as the composition of underlying terrain units. Rims of craters protruding through mare basalts on the Moon have been used extensively by DeHon (1977, 1979) to develop isopach maps of both the circular and irregular maria. Such estimates are possible because of Apollo topographic data and the extensive coverage by Lunar Orbiter photographs at various sun angles. On planetary surfaces without such data, however, shadow measurements can only be made by pixel listings with appropriate assumptions concerning support data. In addition, high resolution geochemical data is not available to determine whether the exposed crater rim is composed of material dissimilar from the lavas. Because of the need for lava thickness data, flooding of lunar mare and highland craters was simulated in order to determine empirical relationships between dimensions observed in orbital images and the thickness of the lava.

Maxwell, T. A.

RSMASS: A simple model for estimating reactor/shield masses

A comparison was completed of the reactor/shield masses obtained from detailed calculations by the proposers of space power reactors. This comparison included a variety of liquid metal cooled, gas cooled and thermionic reactors. An initial goal for agreement between RSMASS (reactor/shield mass model) calculated masses and the masses obtained from detailed calculations was chosen to be a factor of 2. The preliminary comparison demonstrated that the reactor/shield masses estimated by RSMASS agree with the masses obtained from detailed calculations within 50 percent. It can be concluded that RSMASS can provide good estimates of reactor/shield masses for a broad variety of reactor concepts proposed for MMW space power applications. RSMASS is being used to compare the masses of various reactor types and is providing some insights into the mass advantages and disadvantages for the various concepts as a function of operating conditions and reactor or shield parameters. Some mass estimates obtained with RSMASS are presented.

Marshall, Albert C.

Fine tuning GPS clock estimation in the MCS

With the completion of a 24 operational satellite constellation, GPS is fast approaching the critical milestone, Full Operational Capability (FOC). Although GPS is well capable of providing the timing accuracy and stability figures required by system specifications, the GPS community will continue to strive for further improvements in performance. The GPS Master Control Station (MCS) recently demonstrated that timing improvements are always composite Clock, and hence, Kalman Filter state estimation, providing a small improvement to user accuracy.

Hutsell, Steven T.

Determination of the structure and bond energies of NiO2 and CuO2

On the basis of extensive ab initio calculations, we estimate the metal-O2 binding energies of NiO2 and CuO2 to be 48 +/- 7 and 18 +/- 4 kcal/mol, respectively. We feel that the experimental estimate of 57 +/- 10 kcal/mol for the binding energy of NiO2 is slightly too large, while we are in complete agreement with the experimental estimate of 15 +10/-5 kcal/mol for CuO2. While the 1A1 ground state of NiO2 definitely has a side-on C(2v) structure, matrix isolation studies suggest that CuO2 has an end-on C(s) structure. Calculations at the coupled-cluster singles plus doubles level with a perturbational estimate of triple excitations, CCSD(T), produce a 2A2 state with C(2v) as a global minimum. However, the entire 2A-double prime ground-state surface is exceedingly flat, precluding a reliable determination of the gas-phase equilibrium structure.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.

Time-resolved spray characterization via unified optical flow and binarization technique

This work leverages an unsupervised machine learning and advanced image processing techniques to characterize the breakup of fuel sprays in a small-scale combustor under reacting conditions, providing valuable insights into near-nozzle flow phenomenology. The proposed methodology integrates an improved optical flow model on a convolutional neural network to extract flow vectors with a binarization technique to assess droplets’ size and shape across the region of interest. The velocimetry approach demonstrates superior performance compared to a state-of-the-art optical flow model when applied to high-speed X-ray phase contrast spray images, achieving more accurate and reliable flow predictions. Moreover, breakup processes are quantified by breakup length and sphericity in accordance with velocity estimations, allowing a more complete characterization of the flow. This study establishes a robust methodology for analyzing spray morphology and primary breakup in compact combustors, contributing valuable means of understanding and optimizing fuel spray behavior in advanced combustion systems.

42 ENGINEERING

Using a 1D Radially Symmetric Coda Envelope Model for Robust Moment Magnitude ( M w ) Estimation in Iraq’s Tectonically Diverse Zones

Robust estimation of moment magnitude (M w ) can be challenging for Iraq due to the strong lateral heterogeneity across diverse tectonic zones. We aim to improve moment magnitude estimation by investigating the reliability of using a 1D coda envelope model in diverse tectonic zones of different lateral effects and offer a way forward for reliable estimates of M w for small events that are difficult to waveform model. Iraq comprises two main tectonic zones: (1) the Outer platform, consisting of the northwestern Zagros fold-thrust belt and the Mesopotamian foredeep, and (2) the Inner Arabian platform which is overlain by the Iraqi desert. A simple 1D coda envelope model was used because coda waves have a low sensitivity to the source and path heterogeneity. Three separate coda calibrations were conducted to investigate the robustness of a single 1D calibration to fit the country: Whole-region calibration, Zagros calibration, and Mesopotamia calibration. In the whole-region calibration, we used stations from both the Zagros and Mesopotamia zones. In the two other calibration models, we used only stations that were in those particular zones. Ground-truth reference spectra derived from the coda spectral ratio method were used to constrain high-frequency site terms. There was no drastic difference when comparing the moment magnitudes calculated from the waveform modeling and the three calibration models. The results show that the 1D coda envelope model is a reliable method even for a region with diverse tectonic zones. Therefore, we recommend using the whole-region calibration model for moment magnitude estimation that provides more complete path coverage and avoids biases introduced by path correction failures. The proposed calibration is a fundamental step in updating the comprehensive earthquake catalog and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES

The Compilation and Validation of the Spectroscopic Redshift Catalogs for the DESI-COSMOS and DESI-XMM-LSS Fields

Over several dedicated programs that include targets beyond the main cosmological samples, the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument collected spectra for 304,970 unique objects in two fields centered on the COSMOS and XMM-LSS fields. In this work, we develop spectroscopic redshift robustness criteria for those spectra, validate these criteria using visual inspection, and provide two custom value-added catalogs with our redshift characterizations. With these criteria, we reliably classify 212,935 galaxies below z < 1.6, 9713 quasars, and 35,222 stars. The resulting catalogs achieve a redshift purity exceeding 99.4% across all galaxy samples. As a critical element in characterizing the selection function, we provide the description of 70 different algorithms that were used to select these targets from imaging data. To facilitate joint imaging/spectroscopic analyses, we provide row-matched photometry from the Dark Energy Camera, Hyper-Suprime Cam, and public COSMOS2020 photometric catalogs. Finally, we demonstrate example applications of these large catalogs to photometric redshift estimation, cluster finding, and completeness studies.

Ratajczak, J. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (

Neotectonics of the San Andreas Fault system: Basin and range province juncture

A thorough evaluation of all LANDSAT coverage of the study area (considering atmospheric clarity, seasonal aspects, specific swath location, and digital quality) resulted in the selection of two consecutive (continuously recorded) scenes for detailed analyses. The acquisition of HCMM and SEASAT imagery as well as high altitude U-2 uniform coverage is being considered. A bibliography of previous geological studies and methodological examples is estimated to be 70% complete.

Estes, J. E.

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

Maine, R. E.

The effects of pressure sensor acoustics on airdata derived from a High-angle-of-attack Flush Airdata Sensing (HI-FADS) system

The accuracy of a nonintrusive high angle-of-attack flush airdata sensing (HI-FADS) system was verified for quasi-steady flight conditions up to 55 deg angle of attack during the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV) Program. The system is a matrix of nine pressure ports arranged in annular rings on the aircraft nose. The complete airdata set is estimated using nonlinear regression. Satisfactory frequency response was verified to the system Nyquist frequency (12.5 Hz). The effects of acoustical distortions within the individual pressure sensors of the nonintrusive pressure matrix on overall system performance are addressed. To quantify these effects, a frequency-response model describing the dynamics of acoustical distortion is developed and simple design criteria are derived. The model adjusts measured HI-FADS pressure data for the acoustical distortion and quantifies the effects of internal sensor geometries on system performance. Analysis results indicate that sensor frequency response characteristics very greatly with altitude, thus it is difficult to select satisfactory sensor geometry for all altitudes. The solution used presample filtering to eliminate resonance effects, and short pneumatic tubing sections to reduce lag effects. Without presample signal conditioning the system designer must use the pneumatic transmission line to attenuate the resonances and accept the resulting altitude variability.

Whitmore, Stephen A.

Estimating Delays In ASIC's

Verification is important aspect of process of designing application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC). Design must not only be functionally accurate, but must also maintain correct timing. IFA, Intelligent Front Annotation program, assists in verifying timing of ASIC early in design process. This program speeds design-and-verification cycle by estimating delays before layouts completed. Written in C language.

Burke, Gary