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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Highly Resolved Spatial-Temporal Vehicle Energy Consumption Estimation Using Machine Learning and Probe Data

Real-time highly resolved spatial-temporal vehicle energy consumption is a key missing dimension in transportation data. Most roadway link-level vehicle energy consumption data are estimated using average annual daily traffic measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System; however, this method does not reflect day-to-day energy consumption fluctuations. As transportation planners and operators are becoming more environmentally attentive, they need accurate real-time link-level vehicle energy consumption data to assess energy and emissions; to incentivize energy-efficient routing; and to estimate energy impact caused by congestion, major events, and severe weather. This paper presents a computational workflow to automate the estimation of time-resolved vehicle energy consumption for each link in a road network of interest using vehicle probe speed and count data in conjunction with machine learning methods in real time. The real-time pipeline can deliver energy estimates within a couple seconds on query to its interface. The proposed method was evaluated on the transportation network of the metropolitan area of Chattanooga, Tennessee. The volume estimation results were validated with ground truth traffic volume data collected in the field. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the energy consumption pipeline was applied to real-world data to quantify road transportation-related energy reduction because of mitigation policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 and to measure energy loss resulting from congestion.

Severino, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-Learning-Assisted State and Event Tracking for Solar-Penetrated Power Grids with Heterogeneous Data Sources

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems do not typically contain sufficient metering to enable real-time state estimation. The lack of sufficient real-time measurements prohibits accurate and timely monitoring of the state of distribution systems. As a result, control and optimal operation of distribution systems, especially those containing large numbers of renewable generation units are not possible without proper data and information about the current state of the system. The main motivation of this project is to address this shortcoming by developing an approach which provides “predicted” real-time measurements so that they can be used to execute a distribution system state estimator. Thus, the objective of the project is to make the distribution systems fully observable, such that the hosting capacity for solar generation can be accurately estimated, and unnecessary solar curtailments can be avoided. In order to accomplish this goal, the project investigated the use of a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams obtained from AMI meters, SCADA as well as PMU measurements and created synchronous measurement snapshots for the state estimator (SE); and developed a hybrid robust SE which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for the ML model refinement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon footprint of global natural gas supplies to China

As natural gas demand surges in China, driven by the coal-to-gas switching policy, widespread attention is focused on its impacts on global gas supply-demand rebalance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here, for the first time, we estimate well-to-city-gate GHG emissions of gas supplies for China, based on analyses of field-specific characteristics of 104 fields in 15 countries. Results show GHG intensities of supplies from 104 fields vary from 6.2 to 43.3 g CO 2 eq MJ -1 . Due to the increase of GHG-intensive gas supplies from Russia, Central Asia, and domestic shale gas fields, the supply-energy-weighted average GHG intensity is projected to increase from 21.7 in 2016 to 23.3 CO 2 eq MJ -1 in 2030, and total well-to-city-gate emissions of gas supplies are estimated to grow by ~3 times. While securing gas supply is a top priority for the Chinese government, decreasing GHG intensity should be considered in meeting its commitment to emission reductions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Feasibility of Incorporating a 3D Velocity Model Into Earthquake Location Around Salt Lake City, UT Using a Physics Informed Neural Network

Earthquake location algorithms typically require travel time calculation. Doing this calculation in 3D, despite advances in algorithm efficiency and computational power, can still be prohibitively expensive in terms of resources and storage. Implementation of high-resolution 3D models in routine earthquake location would be a significant step forward in most of the world. Machine learning algorithms have potential to act as substitutes for travel time calculation algorithms or stored travel time tables. We investigate EikoNet - a physics informed neural network machine learning model that estimates travel times very quickly and comes with negligible memory-overhead. Specifically, we apply EikoNet to the Wasatch Fault Community Velocity Model (WFCVM), a highly detailed and complex 3D velocity model of the Salt Lake City, UT region. While routine locations in the area and studies of the 2020 Magna, UT earthquake sequence used a 1D velocity model, a 3D model may help better our understanding the structure of the major fault in the region. Our primary goal was to test the speed, memory requirements, and accuracy of EikoNet compared to a reference eikonal solver. We find that while the EikoNet is exceedingly fast and requires little memory overhead, achieving acceptable accuracy in estimated travel times is difficult and requires extensive computational resources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scintillation and cherenkov photon counting detectors with analog silicon photomultipliers for TOF-PET

Objective. Standard signal processing approaches for scintillation detectors in positron emission tomography (PET) derive accurate estimates for 511 keV photon time of interaction and energy imparted to the detection media from aggregate characteristics of electronic pulse shapes. The ultimate realization of a scintillation detector for PET is one that provides a unique timestamp and position for each detected scintillation photon. Detectors with these capabilities enable advanced concepts for three-dimensional (3D) position and time of interaction estimation with methods that exploit the spatiotemporal arrival time kinetics of individual scintillation photons. Approach. In this work, we show that taking into consideration the temporal photon emission density of a scintillator, the channel density of an analog silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) array, and employing fast electronic readout with digital signal processing, a detector that counts and timestamps scintillation photons can be realized. To demonstrate this approach, a prototype detector was constructed, comprising multichannel electronic readout for a bismuth germanate (BGO) scintillator coupled to an SiPM array. Main Results. In proof-of-concept measurements with this detector, we were able to count and provide unique timestamps for 66% of all optical photons, where the remaining 34% (two-or-more-photon pulses) are also independently counted, but each photon bunch shares a common timestamp. We show this detector concept can implement 3D positioning of 511 keV photon interactions and thereby enable corrections for time of interaction estimators. The detector achieved 17.6% energy resolution at 511 keV and 237 ± 10 ps full-width-at-half-maximum coincidence time resolution (CTR) (fast spectral component) versus a reference detector. We outline the methodology, readout, and approach for achieving this detector capability in first-ever, proof-of-concept measurements for scintillation photon counting detector with analog silicon photomultipliers. Significance. The presented detector concept is a promising design for large area, high sensitivity TOF-PET detector modules that can implement advanced event positioning and time of interaction estimators, which could push state-of-the-art performance.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

3D Crustal Tomography Model of Utah

The ability to accurately locate seismic events is necessary for treaty monitoring. When using techniques that rely on the comparison of observed and predicted travel times to obtain these locations, it is important that the estimated travel times and their estimated uncertainties are also accurate. The methodology of Ballard et al. (2016a) has been used in the past to generate an accurate 3D tomographic global model of compressional wave slowness (the SAndia LoS Alamos 3D tomography model, i.e. SALSA3D). To re-establish functionality and to broaden the capabilities of the method to local distances, we have applied the methodology of Ballard et al. (2016a) to local data in Utah. This report details the results of the initial model generated, including relocations performed using analyst picked mining events at West Ridge Mine and three ground-truth events at Bingham Mine. We were successfully able to generate a feasible tomography model that resulted in reasonable relocations of the mining events.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning with Quantized Neural Networks for Gravitational-wave Forecasting of Eccentric Compact Binary Coalescence

We present the first application of deep learning forecasting for binary neutron stars, neutron star–black hole systems, and binary black hole mergers that span an eccentricity range e ≤ 0.9. In this work, we train neural networks that describe these astrophysical populations, and then test their performance by injecting simulated eccentric signals in advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) noise available at the Gravitational Wave Open Science Center to (1) quantify how fast neural networks identify these signals before the binary components merge; (2) quantify how accurately neural networks estimate the time to merger once gravitational waves are identified; and (3) estimate the time-dependent sky localization of these events from early detection to merger. Our findings show that deep learning can identify eccentric signals from a few seconds (for binary black holes) up to tens of seconds (for binary neutron stars) prior to merger. A quantized version of our neural networks achieves 4× reduction in model size, and up to 2.5× inference speedup. These novel algorithms may be used to facilitate time-sensitive multimessenger astrophysics observations of compact binaries in dense stellar environments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Distribution System State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

We report state estimation is a fundamental task in power systems. Although distribution systems are increasingly equipped with sensing devices and smart meters, measurements are typically reported at different rates and asynchronously; these aspects pose severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms, which are designed to process batches of data collected in a synchronous manner from all the measurement units. In this paper, we develop a novel state estimation algorithm to continuously update the estimate of the state based on measurements received in an asynchronous manner from measurement units. The synthesis of the algorithm hinges on a proximal-point type method, implemented in an online fashion, and capable of processing measurements received sequentially from sensors. A performance analysis is presented by providing bounds on the estimation error in terms of the mean and variance that hold at each iteration and asymptotically. The scheme is also compared with a more traditional Weighted Least Squares estimator that compensates for the lack of measurement data by using, as pseudo measurements, the measurement retrieved during a certain time window. Numerical simulations on the IEEE 37-bus feeder corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the inference of viscoelastic constants from stress relaxation experiments

Several constitutive theories have been proposed in the literature to model the viscoelastic response of materials, including widely used rheological constitutive models. These models are characterized by certain parameters ("time constants") that define the time scales over which the material relaxes. These parameters are primarily obtained from stress relaxation experiments using curve-fitting techniques. However, the question of how best to estimate these time constants remains open. As a step towards answering this question, we propose an optimal experimental design approach based on ideas from information geometry, namely Fisher information and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The material is modeled as a spring element in parallel with multiple Maxwell elements and described using a one- or two-term Prony series. Treating the time constants as unknowns, we develop expressions for the Fisher information and Kullback-Leibler divergence that allow us to maximize information gain from experimental data. Based on the results of this study, we propose that the largest time constant estimated from a stress relaxation experiment for a linear viscoelastic material should be at most one-fifth of the total time of the experiment in order to maximize information gain. Our results also provide confirmation that the equilibrium modulus of the material cannot be reliably determined from curve-fitting to data from a stress relaxation experiment.

Fisher information↗
DOE OSTI2023

Downhole Sensing and Event-Driven Sensor Fusion for Depth-of-Cut Based Autonomous Fault Response and Drilling Optimization

Achieving robust and efficient drilling is a critical part of reducing the cost of geothermal energy exploration and extraction. Drilling performance is often evaluated using one or more of three key metrics: depth of cut (DOC), rate of penetration (ROP), and mechanical specific energy (MSE). All three of these quantities are related to each other. DOC refers to the depth a bit penetrates into rock during drilling. This is an important quantity for estimating bit behavior. ROP is the simply the DOC multiplied by the rotational rate, and represents how quickly the drill bit is advancing through the ground. ROP is often the parameter used for drilling control and optimization. Finally, MSE provides insight into drilling efficiency and rock type. MSE calculations rely on ROP, drilling force, and drilling torque. Surface-based sensors at the top of the drill are often used to measure all these quantities. However, top-hole measurements can deviate substantially from the behavior at the bit due to lag, vibrations, and friction. Therefore, relying only on top-hole information can lead to suboptimal drilling control. In this work, we describe recent progress towards estimating ROP, DOC, and MSE using down-hole sensing. We assume down-hole measurements of torque, weight-on-bit (WOB). Our hypothesis is that these measurements can provide more rapid and accurate measures of drilling performance. We show how a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) machine learning algorithm can provide rapid and accurate performance when evaluated on experimental data taken from Sandia’s Hard Rock Drilling Facility. In addition, we implement our algorithms on an embedded system intended to emulate a bottom-hole-assembly for sensing and estimation. Our experimental results show that DOC can be estimated accurately and in real-time. These estimates when combined with measurements for rotary speed, torque, and force can provide improved estimates for ROP and MSE. These results have the potential to enable better drilling assessment, improved control, and extended component lifetimes.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regional Real-Time PV Spinning Reserve Estimator

Curtailed photovoltaic (PV) generation is a zero-marginal-cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. Unlike traditional spinning reserve providers, however, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, which have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate knowledge of the PV PHL is essential. It ensures that enough headroom is reserved by the PV plants to deliver the award services in real time and informs feasible dispatch decisions made by the market operator. To tackle this challenge, a novel reference-control grouping-based PV plant reserve estimation method has been proposed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under past projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. The estimation method separates inverters within a plant into two groups: a control group and a reference group. While the reference group is reserved to operate at its PHL, the control group can be curtailed to provide the grid services. Real-time outputs from the reference inverters are used to estimate the PHL for the whole plant based on the ratio between capacities of the reference group and of the plant. This work further enhances the methodology by (1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; (2) automating the reference inverter selection through correlation analysis; (3) considering estimation look-ahead windows; and (4) applying to regional spinning reserve estimation. Significant performance improvement has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO, Southern Company, and Terabase Energy. Compared with the original scaling method, the newly proposed machine learning-based approach reduces the estimation errors by 30% and 13% at the plant level and region level, respectively. Results obtained from this project are intended to be used by grid operators, market operators, balancing authorities, and PV plant owners and operators to facilitate PV participation in ancillary service markets. Regulators, policymakers, and system planners can also consider the results of this work in their decision-making processes. In addition to the performance improvement on the existing reference-control based grouping method, we also investigated how the variability of PV generation from a single PV inverter can be used to represent the variability of PV generation at the plant level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A digital twin based on OpenFAST linearizations for real-time load and fatigue estimation of land-based turbines

Monitoring a wind turbine requires intensive instrumentation, which would be too cost-prohibitive to deploy to an entire wind plant. This work presents a technique that uses readily available measurements to estimate signals that would otherwise require additional instrumentation. This study presents a digital twin concept with a focus on estimating wind speed, thrust, torque, tower-top position, and loads in the tower using supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements. The model combines a linear state-space model obtained using OpenFAST linearizations, a wind speed estimator, and a Kalman filter algorithm that integrates measurements with the state model to perform state estimations. The measurements are: top acceleration, generator torque, pitch, and rotational speed. The article extends previous work that derived the linear state-space model using a different method. The new implementation, based on OpenFAST linearization capability, allows for a systematic extension of the method to more states, inputs, outputs, and to the offshore environment. Results from the two methods are compared, and the validation is made with additional measurements using the GE 1.5-MW turbine located at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory test site. Real-time damage equivalent loads of the tower bottom moment are estimated with an average accuracy of approximately 10%. Overall, the results from this proof of concept are encouraging, and further application of the model will be considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Radiological Source Term Estimation for Multiple Sources in Cluttered Environments

A particle filter algorithm is presented to estimate the position, strength, and cardinality of an unknown number of radioactive point sources in an obstacle-rich environment using count measurements. The algorithm addresses gaps in the prior literature by incorporating two novel elements. The first is a precomputation step in which local terrain and obstacle data is processed to compute attenuation kernels throughout the search area. This enables rapid estimation performance in obstacle-rich environments as measurements are gathered. The second novel feature is a dynamic particle allocation technique in which the number of particles is adjusted in real time to meet convergence goals. This feature allows the algorithm to scale more efficiently to scenarios with a larger number of sources. Furthermore, a series of computational experiments using simulated data demonstrates the algorithm’s performance in a cluttered environment with up to eight sources.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Radiological Source Term Estimation for Multiple Sources in Cluttered Environments

A particle filter algorithm is presented to estimate the position, strength, and cardinality of an unknown number of radioactive point sources in an obstacle-rich environment using count measurements. The algorithm addresses gaps in the prior literature by incorporating two novel elements. The first is a precomputation step in which local terrain and obstacle data is processed to compute attenuation kernels throughout the search area. This enables rapid estimation performance in obstacle-rich environments as measurements are gathered. The second novel feature is a dynamic particle allocation technique in which the number of particles is adjusted in real time to meet convergence goals. This feature allows the algorithm to scale more efficiently to scenarios with a larger number of sources. A series of computational experiments using simulated data demonstrates the algorithm’s performance in a cluttered environment with up to eight sources.

Kemp, Samuel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sequentially calibrating a Bayesian microsimulation model to incorporate new information and assumptions

Background: Microsimulation models are mathematical models that simulate event histories for individual members of a population. They are useful for policy decisions because they simulate a large number of individuals from an idealized population, with features that change over time, and the resulting event histories can be summarized to describe key population-level outcomes. Model calibration is the process of incorporating evidence into the model. Calibrated models can be used to make predictions about population trends in disease outcomes and effectiveness of interventions, but calibration can be challenging and computationally expensive. Methods: This paper develops a technique for sequentially updating models to take full advantage of earlier calibration results, to ultimately speed up the calibration process. A Bayesian approach to calibration is used because it combines different sources of evidence and enables uncertainty quantification which is appealing for decision-making. We develop this method in order to re-calibrate a microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer to include new targets that better inform the time from initiation of preclinical cancer to presentation with clinical cancer (sojourn time), because model exploration and validation revealed that more information was needed on sojourn time, and that the predicted percentage of patients with cancers detected via colonoscopy screening was too low. Results: The sequential approach to calibration was more efficient than recalibrating the model from scratch. Incorporating new information on the percentage of patients with cancers detected upon screening changed the estimated sojourn time parameters significantly, increasing the estimated mean sojourn time for cancers in the colon and rectum, providing results with more validity. Conclusions: A sequential approach to recalibration can be used to efficiently recalibrate a microsimulation model when new information becomes available that requires the original targets to be supplemented with additional targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 99% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗