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NASA NTRS2023

Delayed Development of Cool Plasmas in X-Ray Flares from the Young Sun-like Star κ1 Ceti

The Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) X-ray observatory observed two powerful X-ray flares equivalent to superflares from the nearby young solar-like star κ 1 Ceti in 2019. NICER follows each flare from the onset through the early decay, collecting over 30 counts s −1 near the peak, enabling a detailed spectral variation study of the flare rise. The flare in September varies quickly in ∼800 s, while the flare in December has a few times longer timescale. In both flares, the hard-band (2–4 keV) light curves show typical stellar X-ray flare variations with a rapid rise and slow decay, while the soft X-ray light curves, especially of the September flare, have prolonged flat peaks. The time-resolved spectra require two temperature plasma components at kT ∼0.3–1 and ∼2–4 keV. Both components vary similarly, but the cool component lags by ∼200 s with a four to six times smaller emission measure (EM) compared to the hot component. A comparison with hydrodynamic flare loop simulations indicates that the cool component originates from X-ray plasma near the magnetic loop footpoints that mainly cools via thermal conduction. The time lag represents the travel time of the evaporated gas through the entire flare loop. The cool component has a several times smaller EM than its simulated counterpart, suggesting a suppression of conductive cooling, possibly by the expansion of the loop cross-sectional area or turbulent fluctuations. The cool component's time lag and EM ratio provide important constraints on the flare loop geometry.

main sequence stars↗
NASA NTRS1966

Orbital tube flare for tubing connectors

Marshall engineering personnel have developed and are now refining a new and unique method of mechanically flaring tubing. The system eliminates the use of the conventional split backing die which is used with most tube-flaring equipment. The Marshall-developed tool is adapted for use on standard Leonard 3-CP-HD flaring machines. The stationary split backing die is replaced in function with a die ring, whose i.d.-surface rolls or orbits around the o.d. of the tube flare zone. An i.d.-flaring cone moves axially and forces the metal against the rolling die to form the flare. Major advantages of this system are the elimination of flash, or split die marks, on the back angle of the flare, and improved flare-surface finishes, permitting more uniform sealing characteristics and improvements of the total geometric configuration of the flare as required by the MSFC specification MC-146. The Orbital Adapter system of tooling is currently being used to manufacture flared tube hardware for the Saturn V S-IO space launch vehicle at MSFC, for the Agena space launch vehicle (used for the Gemini project) at Lockheed, Sunnyvale, for LEM checkout equipment for Grumman, and for the Saturn S-IV-B space launch vehicle by Douglas Aircraft Company. Several other aerospace firms are evaluating the system for possible incorporation on their tube flaring requirements. Marshall engineers are now concentrating their efforts on refining and reducing the total cost of the overall system.

Tubing↗
NASA NTRS2013

Wavelength Dependence of Solar Irradiance Enhancement During X-class Flares and Its Influence on the Upper Atmosphere

The wavelength dependence of solar irradiance enhancement during flare events is one of the important factors in determining how the Thermosphere-Ionosphere (TI) system responds to flares. To investigate the wavelength dependence of flare enhancement, the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) was run for 61X-class flares. The absolute and the percentage increases of solar irradiance at flare peaks, compared to pre-flare conditions, have clear wavelength dependences. The 0-4 nm irradiance increases much more ((is) approximately 680 on average) than that in the 14-25 nm waveband ((is) approximately 65 on average), except at 24 nm ( (is) approximately 220). The average percentage increases for the 25-105 nm and 122-190 nm wave bands are approximately 120 and approximately 35, respectively. The influence of 6 different wavebands (0-14 nm, 14-25 nm, 25-105 nm, 105-120 nm, 121.56 nm,and122-175 nm) on the thermosphere was examined for the October 28th, 2003 flare (X17-class) event by coupling FISM with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model(TIE-GCM) under geomagnetically quiet conditions (Kp=1). While the enhancement in the0-14nm waveband caused the largest enhancement of the globally integrated solar heating, the impact of solar irradiance enhancement on the thermosphere at 400 km is largest for the 25-105 nm waveband (EUV), which accounts for about 33 K of the total 45 K temperature enhancement, and approximately 7.4% of the total approximately 11.5% neutral density enhancement. The effect of 122-175 nm flare radiation on the thermosphere is rather small. The study also illustrates that the high-altitude thermospheric response to the flare radiation at 0-175 nm is almost a linear combination of the responses to the individual wavebands. The upper thermospheric temperature and density enhancements peaked 3-5 h after the maximum flare radiation.

FISM↗
NASA NTRS2013

Wavelength Dependence of Solar Irradiance Enhancement During X-Class Flares and Its Influence on the Upper Atmosphere

The wavelength dependence of solar irradiance enhancement during flare events is one of the important factors in determining how the Thermosphere-Ionosphere (T-I) system responds to flares. To investigate the wavelength dependence of flare enhancement, the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) was run for 61 X-class flares. The absolute and the percentage increases of solar irradiance at flare peaks, compared to pre-flare conditions, have clear wavelength dependences. The 0-14 nm irradiance increases much more (approx. 680% on average) than that in the 14-25 nm waveband (approx. 65% on average), except at 24 nm (approx. 220%). The average percentage increases for the 25-105 nm and 122-190 nm wavebands are approx. 120% and approx. 35%, respectively. The influence of 6 different wavebands (0-14 nm, 14-25 nm, 25-105 nm, 105- 120 nm, 121.56 nm, and 122-175 nm) on the thermosphere was examined for the October 28th, 2003 flare (X17-class) event by coupling FISM with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) under geomagnetically quiet conditions (Kp=1). While the enhancement in the 0-14 nm waveband caused the largest enhancement of the globally integrated solar heating, the impact of solar irradiance enhancement on the thermosphere at 400 km is largest for the 25-105 nm waveband (EUV), which accounts for about 33 K of the total 45 K temperature enhancement, and approx. 7.4% of the total approx. 11.5% neutral density enhancement. The effect of 122-175 nm flare radiation on the thermosphere is rather small. The study also illustrates that the high-altitude thermospheric response to the flare radiation at 0-175 nm is almost a linear combination of the responses to the individual wavebands. The upper thermospheric temperature and density enhancements peaked 3-5 h after the maximum flare radiation.

TIE-GCM↗
NASA NTRS2022

Radiative Losses in the Chromosphere During A C-Class Flare

Context. Solar flares release an enormous amount of energy (~10(exp 32) erg) into the corona. A substantial fraction of this energy is transported to the lower atmosphere, which results in chromospheric heating. The mechanisms that transport energy to the lower solar atmosphere during a flare are still not fully understood. Aims. We aim to estimate the temporal evolution of the radiative losses in the chromosphere at the footpoints of a C-class flare, in order to set observational constraints on the electron beam parameters of a RADYN flare simulation. Methods. We estimated the radiative losses from hydrogen, and singly ionized Ca and Mg using semiempirical model atmospheres, which were inferred from a multiline inversion of observed Stokes profiles obtained with the CRISP and CHROMIS instruments on the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. The radiative losses were computed taking into account the effect of partial redistribution and non-local thermodynamic equilibrium. To estimate the integrated radiative losses in the chromosphere, the net cooling rates were integrated between the temperature minimum and the height where the temperature reaches 10 kK. We also compared our time series of radiative losses with those from the RADYN flare simulations. Results. We obtained a high spatial-resolution map of integrated radiative losses around the flare peak time. The stratification of the net cooling rate suggests that the Ca IR triplet lines are responsible for most of the radiative losses in the flaring atmosphere. During the flare peak time, the contribution from Ca II H and K and Mgii h and k lines are strong and comparable to the Ca IR triplet (~32kW m(exp -2)). Since our flare is a relatively weak event, the chromosphere is not heated above 11 kK, which in turn yields a subdued Lyα contribution (~7kW m(exp -2)) in the selected limits of the chromosphere. The temporal evolution of total integrated radiative losses exhibits sharply rising losses (0.4kW m(exp -2) (s(exp -1)) and a relatively slow decay (0.23kW m(exp -2) s(exp -1)). The maximum value of total radiative losses is reached around the flare peak time and can go up to 175kWm􀀀2 for a single pixel located at footpoint. After a small parameter study, we find the best model-data consistency in terms of the amplitude of radiative losses and the overall atmospheric structure with a RADYN flare simulation in the injected energy flux of 5 × 10(exp 10) erg s(exp -1) cm(exp -2).

Chromosphere↗
NASA NTRS1989

Coronal mass ejections and associated X-ray flare durations

It is found that 22 percent of a sample of M1 or greater impulsive soft X-ray flares were associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in the Solwind coronagraph. These flares were more energetic than similar impulsive flares without CMEs, and the associated CMEs were narrow (5-40 deg) in angular width. A survey of all CMEs associated with M1 or greater X-ray flares reveals a good correlation between flare duration CME angular width. The H-alpha characteristics of impulsive, CME-associated flares suggest that they are not the dynamic or eruptive flares presumed to be associated with CMEs, but rather, are confined flares. The H-alpha flare locations are neither centered under the CME legs. The disparity in size scales between the CMEs and their associated flares leaves the basis of the correlation between CME width and X-ray flare duration unresolved.

Kahler, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Nonpotential magnetic fields at sites of gamma ray flares

The relation between the degree of nonpotentiality of photospheric magnetic fields and the occurrence of gamma ray flares is examined. The parameter delta phi (magnetic shear) and the strength of the magnetic field intensity are used as measures of the degree of nonpotentiality, where delta phi is defined as the angular difference between the observed direction of the transverse component of the photospheric field and the direction of the potential field prescribed by the distribution of measured photospheric flux. An analysis of the great flare of April 24 to 25, 1984 is presented as an example of this technique to quantify the nonpotential characteristics of the pre-flare magnetic field. For this flare, which produced a large gamma ray event, strong shear and high field strengths prevailed over an extended length of the magnetic neutral line where the flare occurred. Moreover, the flare began near the area of strongest measured shear (89 to 90 deg). Four other flaring regions were analyzed; one of these produced a moderate gamma ray event while the other three did not produce detectable gamma rays. For all four regions the flares were located in the area where the field was not nonpotential, regardless of the class of flare. The fields of the gamma ray flares were compared with those associated with the flares without gamma rays, and little distinction was found in the degree of magnetic shear. The major difference is seen in the extent of the sheared field: for gamma ray events, the field is sheared over a longer length of the neutral line.

Hagyard, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Coronal mass ejections and major solar flares: The great active center of March 1989

The solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) events associated with the large and complex March 1989 active region are discussed. This active region gave us a chance to study the relation of CME with truly major solar flares. The work concentrates on questions of the relation of CMEs and flares to one another and to other types of activity on the Sun. As expected, some major (X-3B class) flares had associated CMEs. However, an unexpected finding is that others did not. In fact, there is strong evidence that the X4-4B flare of March 9th had no CME. This lack of a CME for such an outstanding flare event has important implications to theories of CME causation.Apparently, not all major flares cause CMEs or are caused by CMEs. The relations between CMEs and other types of solar activity are also discussed. No filament disappearances are reported for major CMEs studied here. Comparing these results with other studies, CMEs occur in association with flares and with erupting prominences, but neither are required for a CME. The relation between solar structures showing flaring without filament eruptions and structures showing filament eruptions without flares becomes important. The evolutionary relation between an active flaring sunspot region and extensive filaments without sunspots is reviewed, and the concept of an 'evolving magnetic structure' (EMS) is introduced. It is suggested that all CMEs arise in EMSs and that CMEs provide a major path through which azimuthal magnetic fields escape form the Sun during the solar cycle.

Feynman, Joan↗
NASA NTRS2008

Multi-wavelength Observations and Modelling of a Solar Flare

Aims: The aim of this work is to investigate the dynamic behavior of a C-class solar flare through the evolution of temperature, emission measure, energy loss and velocity. In particular, the variation of these properties with time are studied using multi-wavelength observations in combination with a recently developed 0-D hydrodynamic model. Methods: The temperature and emission measure evolution were studied using several instruments covering a wide range of temperatures - the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI, >5 MK), GOES-12 (5- 30 MK), the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE 171 A, 1 MK) and the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS, 0.03-8 MK). The temperature and emission measure were analysed through the systematic cooling of flare plasma through the response functions of these instruments. These parameters were then investigated using the Enthalpy Based Thermal Evolution of Loops model (EBTEL). The Doppler shifts at both flare footpoints were analysed using five emission lines seen by CDS. Results: The flare began with clear evidence for pre-flare heating. Upflows of approx.90 km/s and low level emission, both observed in Fe XIX before the main impulsive phase were explained by pre-flare gentle chromospheric evaporation. During the main impulsive phase, the flare plasma was heated to a temperature of >13 MK in approximately 10 minutes. Explosive chromospheric evaporation was observed, driving upflows of approx.80 km/s in Fe XIX and simultaneous downflows of approx.20 km/s in He I and O v. At the peak of the Rare, conduction modelled by EBTEL was found to be the dominant loss mechanism, working efficiently to both lower the temperatures and drive gentle chromospheric evaporation. As the temperature fell below approx.8 MK, radiation became the dominant loss mechanism. During the final stages of the decay phase, downflowing plasma was observed at the footpoints in He I, O v and Mg x at velocities of up to approx.40 km/s, suggesting loop draining occurred. Conclusions. This is the first extensive study of the evolution of flare plasma using both spectroscopic and broad-band instruments in conjunction with a comprehensive hydrodynamic model. The flare began with pre-flare heating and then evolved following the predictions of the standard flare model. Detailed analysis of the plasma heating mechanisms was carried out and the heating function most consistent with observations was found to be Gaussian in shape. The simulations suggested that both direct heating and heating by a non-thermal beam played significant roles in this event.

Raftery, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Thermal Structure of Supra-Arcade Plasma in Two Solar Flares

In this work, we use Hinode/XRT and SDO/AIA data to determine the thermal structure of supra-arcade plasma in two solar flares. The first flare is a Ml.2 flare that occurred on November 5, 2010 on the east limb. This flare was one of a series of flares from AR 11121, published in Reeves & Golub (2011). The second flare is an XI.7 flare that occurred on January 27, 2012 on the west limb. This flare exhibits visible supra-arcade downflows (SADs), where the November 2010 flare does not. For these two flares we combine XRT and AlA data to calculate DEMs of each pixel in the supra-arcade plasma, giving insight into the temperature and density structures in the fan of plasma above the post-flare arcade. We find in each case that the supra-arcade plasma is around 10 MK, and there is a marked decrease in the emission measure in the SADs. We also compare the DEMs calculated with the combined AIA/XRT dataset to those calculated using AIA alone.

Reeves, Katharine K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Flare Catalog for SPICE Instrument on the Solar Orbiter

Studying the solar corona, the outermost layer of solar atmosphere, is a pivotal part of understanding the dynamic relations between solar activity and the solar wind, which can disrupt the near-Earth environment. Solar flares emit electromagnetic radiation in the solar corona, capable of releasing large amounts of energy in a matter of minutes. Flares can also be associated with Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and affect Earth’s ionosphere. One instrument that can be used to study flares is the Spectral Imaging of the Coronal Environment (SPICE) instrumentaboard the Solar Orbiter (SolO). SPICE is a high-resolution extreme ultraviolet stigmatic slit spectrometer that covers emission lines formed from the solar chromosphere to corona. Since SPICE is a stigmatic slit spectrometer, the instrument can only take in data from a small spatial area on the Sun at a time. Due to the fast and unpredictable nature of flare events, it can be difficult to determine if and when SPICE has observed a flare. For this reason, we have created a catalog of flares observed by SPICE. This catalog of observational data was assembledby cross referencing data between different solar missions, including data from SolO’s E xtreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) and Spectrometer Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX), Solar Dynamics Observatory’s Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) instrument, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R). Supplemental analysis of the SPICE solar flare data includes Gaussian line fitting for flares of particular interest. The catalog can be utilized to locate and study coronal loop structures and flare ribbons. This SPICE solar flare catalog and additional supplemental analysis allows for the ease of identification of useful SPICE spectral data and multi-instrument analysis in order to study solar flare activity. It will be open for use by the Solar Orbiter and broader Heliophysics communities.

Anneliese L. Schmidt↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interrogating Solar Flare Loop Models with IRIS Observations 2: Plasma Properties, Energy Transport, and Future Directions

During solar flares a tremendous amount of magnetic energy is released and transported through the Sun’s atmosphere and out into the heliosphere. Despite over a century of study, many unresolved questions surrounding solar flares are still present. Among those are how does the solar plasma respond to flare energy deposition, and what are the important physical processes that transport that energy from the release site in the corona through the transition region and chromosphere? Attacking these questions requires the concert of advanced numerical simulations and high spatial-, temporal-, and spectral-resolution observations. While flares are 3D phenomenon, simulating the NLTE flaring chromosphere in 3D and performing parameter studies of 3D models is largely outwith our current computational capabilities. We instead rely on state-of-the-art 1D field-aligned simulations to study the physical processes that govern flares. Over the last decade, data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) have provided the crucial observations with which we can critically interrogate the predictions of those flare loop models. Here in Paper 2 of a two-part review of IRIS and flare loop models, I discuss how forward modelling flares can help us understand the observations from IRIS, and how IRIS can reveal where our models do well and where we are likely missing important processes, focussing in particular on the plasma properties, energy transport mechanisms, and future directions of flare modelling.

solar flares↗
NASA NTRS1986

Two classes of gamma-ray/proton flares - Impulsive and gradual

Various observational properties of gamma-ray/proton (GR/P) flares are investigated. The question whether gamma ray line (GRL) flares are different from other flares is reevaluated, and flares with gradual hard X-ray time profiles are searched for and shown to share many common characteristics. Among the gradual flares, the only difference between those with observable nuclear gamma rays and those without is that hard X-ray burst spectrometer peak rates are greater than 4500 counts/s for the former, and less for the latter. It is proposed that GR/P flares be classified into impulsive and gradual flares. The differences between the two classes ofo GR/P flares are studied in phenomena occurring in the high corona and interplanetary medium. By examining the ratio of the number of interplanetary protons to the number of gamma-ray producing protons, it is found that it is small for impulsive GR/P flares but relatively large for gradual GR/P flares.

Bai, T.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Classification of solar flares and the relationship between the first and second phases

A large data base on solar flares obtained during the last solar maximum years makes it necessary to revise the views on the relationship between the impulsive phase and the second phase of flares. Contrary to the view most popular before the launch of the Solar Maximum Mission, it is now known that relativistic electrons and gamma-ray-producing protons and ions are accelerated during the impulsive phase. Because flares producing nuclear gamma-rays are different from ordinary flares, it is concluded that additional processes take place in gamma-ray-line flares. Recent studies have shown that flares with gradual hard X-ray time profiles not only produce nuclear gamma-rays during the impulsive phase but also develop full-fledged second-phase phenomena. It is proposed that filament eruption plays a key role in gamma-ray-line flares. When an erupting filament interacts with an overlaying flare loop, relativistic electrons and energetic protons are produced during the impulsive phase. When the erupting filament fully distends the overlying flare loop, full-fledged second-phase phenomena, such as shocks, interplanetary energetic particles, mass ejections and etc. are observed. When the overlying flare loop is compact and strong enough to suppress the activated filament, gamma-rays are emitted during the first phase but no second-phase phenomena occur.

Bai, T.↗
NASA NTRS2008

X-Ray Source Motions and Their Implications for Flare Models

RHESSI observations have revealed a downward contraction of solar flare loops followed by upward expansion. In some flares a pair of above-the-looptop sources is observed, one just above the top of the cooler flare loops and the other a discrete source well above the looptops characterized by an effective temperature gradient increasing toward lower altitudes. In one flare the higher, temperature-inverted coronal source sped outward at a speed consistent with that of a coronal mass ejection associated with the flare. In some flares with minimal preheating (early impulsive flares), nonthermal X-ray sources have been observed to propagate downward and then upward along the legs of the flare loop. I will discuss the implications of all of these X-ray source motions for flare models, and their use as diagnostics of the evolution of the physical conditions in flares.

Holman, Gordon D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Nonthermal X-ray Spectral Flattening toward Low Energies in Early Impulsive Flares

The determination of the low-energy cutoff to nonthermal electron distributions is critical to the calculation of the nonthermal energy in solar flares. The most direct evidence for low-energy cutoffs is flattening of the power-law, nontherma1 X-ray spectra at low energies. However, because of the plasma preheating often seen in flares, the thermal emissions at low energies may hide such spectral flattening of the nonthermal component. We select a category of flares, which we call "early impulsive flares", in which the > 25 keV hard X-ray (HXR) flux increase is delayed by less than 30 s after the flux increase at lower energies. Thus, the plasma preheating in these flares is minimal, so the nonthermal spectrum can be determined to lower energies than in flares with significant preheating. Out of a sample of 33 early impulsive flares observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopy Imager (RHESSI), 9 showed spectral flattening toward low energies. In these events, the break energy of the double power-law fit to the HXR spectra lies in the range of 10-50 keV, significantly lower than the value we have seen for other flares that do not show such early impulsive emissions. In particular, it correlates with the HXR flux. After correcting the spatially-integrated spectra for albedo from isotropically emitted X-rays and using RHESSI imaging spectroscopy to exclude the extended albedo halo, we find that albedo associated with isotropic or nearly isotropic electrons can only account for the spectral flattening in 3 flares near Sun center. The spectral flattening in the remaining 6 flares is found to be consistent with the existence of a low-energy cutoff in the electron spectrum, falling in the range of 15-50 keV, which also correlates with the HXR flux.

Holman, Gordon D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Connection Between Small Gamma-Ray Flares and SEPs with COMPTEL/CGRO

While it is clear that particle acceleration is occurring during flares, what is less clear is the connection between the neutral radiation observed concommitant with the flare and the in-situ observations of SEPs. For the largest SEP events, where current instruments possess the sensitivity to observe nuclear-related gamma-ray emission, the origin of SEPs is generally divided between an escaping accelerated flare population and a population of coronal particles (or some admixture) accelerated through CME-driven shocks. Small flares, as defined by their X-ray emission, have been found to correlate with the presence of small "impulsive" (enriched in electrons and heavy nuclei) SEP events, suggesting that small SEP events are originally flare particles. The difficulty with this interpretation is that small flares lack detectable nuclear-related gamma-ray emission. Whether this emission is there or not is unclear because current instruments capable of high-energy gamma-ray observations operate above the sensitivity threshold for observing gammaray emission from small flares (< C-class). The COMPton TELescope (COMPTEL) aboard the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) provided unprecedented, and as yet unsurpassed, sensitivity to y rays in the 0.7 to 30 MeV energy range and neutrons in the 20 to 150 MeV energy range. This, combined with its nine years of operation, has produced a unique data set of observations for almost a complete solar cycle. The COMPTEL archival data offers the best possibility to investigate a connection between SEP observations in space and small-flare gamma-ray emission. We present preliminary results of a small-flare search within the COMPTEL archival data and discuss the correlation between already well-established compilations of SEP events and small impulsive or 3He-rich SEP events. Establishing a connection and determining the characterization of this connection, would signify an important development in our understanding of how and where flare particles are accelerated and how these very same particles escape into the interplanetary medium. Equally important would be demonstrating the inconsistencies or poor correlation between gamma-ray emission and small impulsive SEP events.

deNolfo, Georgia↗
NASA NTRS2011

Real-Time CME Forecasting Using HMI Active-Region Magnetograms and Flare History

We have recently developed a method of predicting an active region s probability of producing a CME, an X-class Flare, an M-class Flare, or a Solar Energetic Particle Event from a free-energy proxy measured from SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. This year we have added three major improvements to our forecast tool: 1) Transition from MDI magnetogram to SDO/HMI magnetogram allowing us near-real-time forecasts, 2) Automation of acquisition and measurement of HMI magnetograms giving us near-real-time forecasts (no older than 2 hours), and 3) Determination of how to improve forecast by using the active region s previous flare history in combination with its free-energy proxy. HMI was turned on in May 2010 and MDI was turned off in April 2011. Using the overlap period, we have calibrated HMI to yield what MDI would measure. This is important since the value of the free-energy proxy used for our forecast is resolution dependent, and the forecasts are made from results of a 1996-2004 database of MDI observations. With near-real-time magnetograms from HMI, near-real-time forecasts are now possible. We have augmented the code so that it continually acquires and measures new magnetograms as they become available online, and updates the whole-sun forecast from the coming day. The next planned improvement is to use an active region s previous flare history, in conjunction with its free-energy proxy, to forecast the active region s event rate. It has long been known that active regions that have produced flares in the past are likely to produce flares in the future, and that active regions that are nonpotential (have large free-energy) are more likely to produce flares in the future. This year we have determined that persistence of flaring is not just a reflection of an active region s free energy. In other words, after controlling for free energy, we have found that active regions that have flared recently are more likely to flare in the future.

Falconer, David↗