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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Synthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight Data

New launch vehicles have historically had significantly higher failure probabilities in early flights than what has been predicted using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Work on a new methodology originally started with ARES I-X and the Common Standards Working Group (CSWG) for range safety applications. CSWG consists of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Air Force, and NASA. Historical launch vehicle data was viewed as the best predictor of success/failure for launches of new vehicles. A launch vehicle database was developed that includes all launches from 1980-2017 (both US and foreign). Entries to the database include: Vehicle by model type; Launch dates; Failure description; Failure Result (Loss Of Vehicle (LOV)/Loss Of Mission (LOM); Failure cause (when available); Vehicle designs (stages/engines/etc.)

Early flight risk↗
NASA NTRS2015

Identifying Cross-Disciplinary Interactions to Assess and Promote Functional Resilience in Flight Crews During Exploration Missions

NASA supports research to mitigate risks to health and performance on extended missions. Typically these risks are investigated independently. In reality, physiological systems are tightly coupled, and related to psychological and inter-individual factors (team cohesion, conflict). We draw on ideas from network theory to assess these interactions and better design a research framework to address them.

Shelhamer, M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

Beaty, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Hyper-X Hot Structures Comparison of Thermal Analysis and Flight Data

The Hyper-X (X-43A) program is a flight experiment to demonstrate scramjet performance and operability under controlled powered free-flight conditions at Mach 7 and 10. The Mach 7 flight was successfully completed on March 27, 2004. Thermocouple instrumentation in the hot structures (nose, horizontal tail, and vertical tail) recorded the flight thermal response of these components. Preflight thermal analysis was performed for design and risk assessment purposes. This paper will present a comparison of the preflight thermal analysis and the recorded flight data.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating the Relationships Between Supine Propriorception Assessments With Upright Functional Mobility and Balance Tests

- Sensorimotor adaptations during spaceflight can result in impaired posture and locomotion upon return to Earth. - In-flight sensorimotor countermeasures and assessment tools are needed to mitigate risks associated with mission-critical task performance upon return to Earth or arrival to Mars. - The tilt board (Fig. 1) is proposed as an inflight proprioceptive countermeasure and will be tested in an upcoming bed rest study. - Proprioceptive assessments on the tilt board may also help predict post-flight and post-bedrest functional task performance.

Rachel F. Bellisle↗
NASA NTRS2017

Personalized Risk Assesment for Adverse Drug Reactions and Treatment Failures

As NASA and other space agencies prepare for future long-term space missions beyond the LEO, the cumulative impact of risk factors encountered in space increases substantially rising concerns about astronauts health. Application of on-board medications to mitigate clinical symptoms associated with certain medical conditions and illnesses is the first line of response to ensure sustainable health and performance of crew. Unfortunately, very limited research has been conducted to determine efficacy of the earth-based pharmaceuticals in a microgravity environment. In some instances, orally administered medications taken during flight were reported to be less effective than expected. Evaluation of series of experiments involving astronauts from shuttle flights shows notable individual variability to several pharmaceuticals during flight. These data provide reasonable assumption of perturbation in CYP450 enzymes during spaceflight, which contribute to the hepatic metabolism of the majority of drugs and therefore may have significant effects on therapeutic efficacy and increase treatment-related toxicity. The genes encoding the CYP450 enzymes are highly variable in humans. Inheritable variations of CYP450 hepatic metabolizer enzymes and transport proteins play a crucial role in the inter-individual variability of drug efficiency and risks of adverse drug reactions. Additionally, there are some reports that document changes in the levels of production of drug-metabolizing enzymes in microgravity. Therefore, in order to provide a safe and effective pharmaceutical treatment in space, medications selection should be based not only on the specific efficacy of medications but also on the individual drug sensitivity and flight-induced changes in metabolism of astronauts chosen for a particular mission. To our knowledge, there was no pre-flight drug sensitivity testing on a genetic level for any of the previous manned NASA space missions. Therefore, technologies capable of predicting and managing medication efficacy, side effects, and toxicity of drugs based on individual genetic variability of crew members are increasingly needed. In this report, we present results of testing the market available Personalized Prescribing System (PPS), a comprehensive, non-invasive solution for safer, targeted medication management for every crew member. Statistical accuracy and simplicity of non-invasive sample analysis demonstrate the feasibility of drug sensitivity assessment and record-keeping tool for flight surgeons and astronauts in applying the recommended medications for situations arising in flight. The information on individual drug sensitivity will translate into personalized risk assessment for adverse drug reactions and treatment failures for each drug from the medication kit as well as predefined outcome. This will address the HHC’s raised “Concern of Clinically Relevant Unpredicted Effects of Medication” as recently updated.

medications↗
NASA NTRS2002

Managing Risk for Cassini During Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MOandDA)

A Risk Management Process has been tailored for Cassini that not only satisfies the requirements of NASA and JPL, but also allows the Program to proactively identify and assess risks that threaten mission objectives. Cassini Risk Management is a team effort that involves both management and engineering staff. The process is managed and facilitated by the Mission Assurance Manager (MAM), but requires regular interactions with Program Staff and team members to instill the risk management philosophy into the day to day mission operations. While Risk Management is well defined for projects in the development phase, it is a relatively new concept for Mission Operations. The Cassini team has embraced this process and has begun using it in an effective, proactive manner, to ensure mission success. It is hoped that the Cassini Risk Management Process will form the basis by which risk management is conducted during MO&DA on future projects. proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working put into place will become visible and will be illusmted in future papers.

risk management↗
NASA NTRS2006

Comprehensive Astronaut Immune Assessment Following a Short-Duration Space Flight

Immune system dysregulation has been demonstrated to occur during spaceflight and has the potential to cause serious health risks to crewmembers participating in exploration class missions. As a part of an ongoing NASA flight experiment assessing viral immunity (DSO-500), a generalized immune assessment was performed on 3 crewmembers who participated in the recent STS-114 Space Shuttle mission. The following assays were performed: (1) comprehensive immunophenotype analysis; (2) T cell function/intracellular cytokine profiles; (4) secreted Th1/Th2 cytokine profiles via cytometric bead array. Immunophenotype analysis included a leukocyte differential, lymphocyte subsets, T cell subsets, cytotoxic/effector CD8+ T cells, memory/naive T cell subsets and constitutively activated T cells. Study timepoints were L-180, L-65, L-10, R+0, R+3 and R+14. Detailed data are presented in the poster text. As expected from a limited number of human subjects, data tended to vary with respect to most parameters. Specific post-flight alterations were as follows (subject number in parentheses): Granulocytosis (2/3), reduced NK cells (3/3), elevated CD4/CD8 ratio (3/3), general CD8+ phenotype shift to a less differentiated phenotype (3/3), elevated levels of memory CD4+ T cells (3/3), loss of L-selectin on T cell subsets (3/3), increased levels of activated T cells (2/3), reduced IL-2 producing T cell subsets (3/3), levels of IFNg producing T cells were unchanged. CD8+ T cell expression of the CD69 activation markers following whole blood stimulation with SEA+SEB were dramatically reduced postflight (3/3), whereas other T cell function assessments were largely unchanged. Cytometric bead array assessment of secreted T cell cytokines was performed, following whole blood stimulation with either CD3/CD28 antibodies or PMA+ionomycin for 48 hours. Specific cytokines assessed were IFNg, TNFa, IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-10. Following CD3/CD28 stimulation, all three crewmembers had a mission-associated reduction in the levels of secreted IFNg. One crewmember had a post-flight inversion in the IFNg/IL-10 ratio postflight, which trended back to baseline by R+14. Detailed cytokine data are presented in the poster text. This testing regimen was designed to correlate immunophenotype changes (thought to correspond to specific in-vivo immune responses or pathogenesis), against altered leukocyte function and cytokine profiles. In-flight studies are required to determine if post-flight alterations are reflective of the in-flight condition, or are a response to landing and readaptation.

Crucian, Brian↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating The Relationships Between Supine Propriorception Assessments with Upright Functional Mobility and Balance Tests

INTRODUCTION Upon return to Earth, spaceflight sensorimotor adaptations can result in impaired posture and locomotion [1], [2], and current exercise countermeasures in the International Space Station are not sufficient to maintain sensorimotor function. In-flight countermeasures and assessment tools for sensorimotor function are needed to mitigate risks associated with mission-critical task performance upon return to Earth or arrival to 0.38 G on Mars. One proposed countermeasure for proprioceptive deconditioning includes training on a tilt board device [3], which will be tested in an upcoming bed rest study. In preparation for the said study, the objective of this pilot study is to compare performance in supine proprioceptive assessments to performance in functional upright activities. The results are intended to guide the selection of supine assessment tools for the upcoming bedrest study and the development of future inflight proprioceptive training and assessment tools for exploration missions. METHODS Seventeen healthy participants (8 males and 9 females, 27.9 ± 8.5 years) provided informed consent as approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at NASA. A horizontal air-bearing sled was used to provide a proprioceptive challenge in a supine body orientation, allowing for mediolateral motion with minimal friction during supine stance [4]. Participants were loaded axially (30 to 60% body weight) with their feet on a vertically oriented tilt board and instructed to perform supine assessment activities using custom software that displays a cursor controlled by tilting the tilt board. In a single-leg static activity on the tilt board (TB-St), performance was measured as the percent time spent on a center target during a 30-second trial. During a two-feet dynamic activity on the tilt board (TB-Dy), performance was measured as the number of targets captured in 30 seconds. These supine tasks were compared to performance during two upright activities used to represent upright performance: completion time for a functional mobility task (FMT) [2],[5] and a performance score from force plate sway data during 30-second single-leg upright standing (USL). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A Spearman's rank-order correlation was run to assess the relationship between upright and supine assessments. There were statistically significant, strong correlations between scores for the FMT and each TB activity, including TB-St, rs(17) = 0.50, p<0.05, TB-Dy3, rs(17) = 0.73, p<0.001, and TB-Dy9, rs(15) = 0.53, p<0.05. There were no statistically significant correlations between USL and each TB activity. Despite a lack of correlation with upright single-leg balance, the ability of the TB to indicate upright performance in the FMT is promising, as this task is a standard post-flight measure designed to characterize locomotor dysfunction [2], [5]. CONCLUSION These efforts will inform the selection of an appropriate sensorimotor assessment method for the upcoming bed rest study and similar future studies. While current work uses a bed rest analog to develop these technologies, future work aims to prepare capabilities for future in-flight sensorimotor training and assessment to mitigate the risks of proprioception impairment after spaceflight. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by the University Space Research Association Internship Program. REFERENCES [1] Mulavara A.P. et al (2018) Med Sci Sports Exerc, 50(9), 1961-1980. [2] Mulavara A.P. et al (2010) Exp Brain Res, 202(3), 649-659. [3] Macaulay T.R. et al (2021) Front. Syst. Neurosci., 15, 658-985. [4] Goel R. et al (2017) Front. Syst. Neurosci, 11. [5] Koppelmans V. et al (2013) BMC Neurology, 12.

R Bellisle↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition↗
NASA NTRS2001

Comparison of chromosome aberration frequencies in pre- and post-flight astronaut lymphocytes irradiated in vitro with gamma rays

If radiosensitivity is altered in a microgravity environment, it will affect the accuracy of assessing astronauts' risk from exposure to space radiation. To investigate the effects of space flight on radiosensitivity, we exposed a crewmember's blood to gamma rays at doses ranging from 0 to 3 Gy and analyzed chromosome aberrations in mitotic lymphocytes. The blood samples were collected 10 days prior to an 8-day Shuttle mission, the day the flight returned, and 14 days after the flight. After exposure, lymphocytes were stimulated to grow in media containing phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) and mitotic cells were harvested for chromosome analysis using a fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with whole chromosome specific probes. The dose response of total exchanges showed no changes in the radiosensitivity after the mission.

manned↗
NASA NTRS2010

GN and C Design Overview and Flight Test Results from NASA's Max Launch Abort System (MLAS)

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) designed, developed and flew the alternative Max Launch Abort System (MLAS) as risk mitigation for the baseline Orion spacecraft launch abort system (LAS) already in development. The NESC was tasked with both formulating a conceptual objective system (OS) design of this alternative MLAS as well as demonstrating this concept with a simulated pad abort flight test. The goal was to obtain sufficient flight test data to assess performance, validate models/tools, and to reduce the design and development risks for a MLAS OS. Less than 2 years after Project start the MLAS simulated pad abort flight test was successfully conducted from Wallops Island on July 8, 2009. The entire flight test duration was 88 seconds during which time multiple staging events were performed and nine separate critically timed parachute deployments occurred as scheduled. Overall, the as-flown flight performance was as predicted prior to launch. This paper provides an overview of the guidance navigation and control (GN&C) technical approaches employed on this rapid prototyping activity. This paper describes the methodology used to design the MLAS flight test vehicle (FTV). Lessons that were learned during this rapid prototyping project are also summarized.

Dennehy, Cornelius J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Artemis 2 and Artemis 5 Model Outcomes Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. This presentation will seek to compare IMPACT’s computational results upon potential complex space medical conditions (e.g., sprain/strain back or sleep disturbance) using IMPACT’s risk metrics and the associated optimized medical sets/kits between two Artemis missions: single segment Artemis 2 and multi-segmented Artemis 5. OVERVIEW By identifying potential medical conditions in space using input criteria such as crew quantity and composition, certain crew physical characteristics, mission duration and mission activities, IMPACT can produce analyses on the type of medical resources and capabilities needed to produce an optimized medical set/kit to address those medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. IMPACT’s risk metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL) – a measure of crew mortality due to medical conditions in space, return to definitive care (RTDC) – the need to perform crew evacuation, and task time lost (TTL) – a measure of the inability to perform activities due to crew disability. These risk metrics are applied to every medical condition identified by IMPACT’s computation analyses for every segment of the mission. Medical sets/kits are optimized to address these medical conditions but must fit within the stated Artemis Design Reference Mission (DRM) request for mass and volume physical size constraints. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION Using two Artemis missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 5, IMPACT will provide the analyses for comparison of medical set/kit contents based upon mass and/or volume requirements and identify the at-risk medical conditions within both missions. This paper serves as an initial exploration of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk calculations between two crewed Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

probabilistic risk assessment↗
NASA NTRS2011

Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

Butler, Doug↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Flexible Method for Producing F.E.M. Analysis of Bone Using Open-Source Software

Individuals who experience decreases in load-bearing bone densities can be subject to a higher risk of bone fracture during daily activity. Astronauts may lose up to nine percent of their load-bearing bone density for every month they spend in space [1]. Because of this, specialized countermeasures reduce percent loss in bone density and reduce fracture risk upon returning to Earth. Astronauts will typically not be at risk for fracture during spaceflight, because of the lesser loads experienced in microgravity conditions. However, once back on Earth, astronauts have an increased risk for bone fracture as a result of weakened bone and return to 1G conditions [2]. It is therefore important to understand the significance of any bone density loss in addition to developing exercises in an attempt to limit losses in bone strength. NASA seeks to develop a deeper understanding of fracture risk through the development of a computational bone strength model to assess the bone fracture risk of astronauts pre-flight and post-flight. This study addresses the several key processes needed to develop such strength analyses using medical image processing and finite element modeling.

biomechanics↗
NASA NTRS2006

Current Characteristics and Trends of the Tracked Satellite Population in the Human Space Flight Regime

Since the end of the Apollo program in 1972, human space flight has been restricted to altitudes below 600 km above the Earth s surface with most missions restricted to a ceiling below 400 km. An investigation of the tracked satellite population transiting and influencing the human space flight regime during the past 11 years (equivalent to a full solar cycle) has recently been completed. The overall effects of satellite breakups and solar activity are typically less pronounced in the human space flight regime than other regions of low Earth orbit. As of January 2006 nearly 1500 tracked objects resided in or traversed the human space flight regime, although two-thirds of these objects were in orbits of moderate to high eccentricity, significantly reducing their effect on human space flight safety. During the period investigated, the spatial density of tracked objects in the 350-400 km altitude regime of the International Space Station demonstrated a steady decline, actually decreasing by 50% by the end of the period. On the other hand, the region immediately above 600 km experienced a significant increase in its population density. This regime is important for future risk assessments, since this region represents the reservoir of debris which will influence human space flight safety in the future. The paper seeks to put into sharper perspective the risks posed to human space flight by the tracked satellite population, as well as the influences of solar activity and the effects of compliance with orbital debris mitigation guidelines on human space flight missions. Finally, the methods and successes of characterizing the population of smaller debris at human space flight regimes are addressed.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assessing and Promoting Functional Resilience in Flight Crews During Exploration Missions

The NASA Human Research Program works to mitigate risks to health and performance on extended missions. However, research should be directed not only to mitigating known risks, but also to providing crews with tools to assess and enhance resilience, as a group and individually. We can draw on ideas from complexity theory to assess resilience. The entire crew or the individual crewmember can be viewed as a complex system composed of subsystems; the interactions between subsystems are of crucial importance. Understanding the interactions can provide important information even in the absence of complete information on the component subsystems. Enabled by advances in noninvasive measurement of physiological and behavioral parameters, subsystem monitoring can be implemented within a mission and during training to establish baselines. Coupled with mathematical modeling, this can provide assessment of health and function. Since the web of physiological systems (and crewmembers) can be interpreted as a network in mathematical terms, we can draw on recent work that relates the structure of such networks to their resilience (ability to self-organize in the face of perturbation). Some of the many parameters and interactions to choose from include: sleep cycles, coordination of work and meal times, cardiorespiratory rhythms, circadian rhythms and body temperature, stress markers and cognition, sleep and performance, immune function and nutritional status. Tools for resilience are then the means to measure and analyze these parameters, incorporate them into models of normal variability and interconnectedness, and recognize when parameters or their couplings are outside of normal limits.

Shelhamer, M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ares I-X First Flight Loss of Vehicle Probability Analysis

As part of the Constellation (Cx) Program development effort, several test flights were planned to prove concepts and operational capabilities of the new vehicles being developed. The first test, involving the Eastern Test Range, is the Ares I-X launched in 2009. As part of this test, the risk to the general public was addressed to ensure it is within Air Force requirements. This paper describes the methodology used to develop first flight estimates of overall loss of vehicle (LOV) failure probability, specifically for the Ares I-X. The method described in this report starts with the Air Force s generic failure probability estimate for first flight and adjusts the value based on the complexity of the vehicle as compared to the complexity of a generic vehicle. The results estimate a 1 in 9 probability of failure. The paper also describes traditional PRA methods used in this assessment, which were then combined with the updated first flight risk methodology to generate inputs required by the malfunction turn analysis to support estimate of casualty (Ec) calculations as part of the Final Flight Data Package (FFDP) delivered to the Eastern Range for Final Flight Plan Approval.

Bigler, Mark A.↗