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DOE OSTI2026

Short‐Term Hourly Weather Forecasting Using PredRNN With Image Preprocessing

Global weather forecast models are vital tools with numerous applications, including public safety, agriculture, and transportation. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) have shown the potential to enhance weather forecasting accuracy and speed. In this study, we developed a short-term hourly weather forecast framework with a wavelet transform function for data preprocessing and a spatiotemporal DL model, PredRNN, for predicting five surface atmospheric variables, including wind speed and direction, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature, and precipitation. The framework demonstrated promising results. It produces global forecasts at 0.25° (∼25 km) with a 1-day lead time RMSE of 1.8 m/s for wind components, 180 Pa for MSLP, and 1.8 K for temperature. Although our model does not surpass state-of-the-art AI weather forecast models across all metrics, it outperforms these models in precipitation forecasting and wind prediction at short lead times and achieves comparable accuracy for MSLP. Its native hourly forecasting capability, together with training on widely accessible GPU hardware, contributes meaningfully to the advancement of accessible DL weather forecasting methods. Our work highlights the importance of integrating temporal components and data transformation techniques to improve the predictability and accuracy of weather forecasts.

Tran, Hoang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗

NASA NTRS1984

Case studies of NOAA 6/TIROS N data impact on numerical weather forecasts

The impact of satellite temperatures from systems which predate the launching of the third generation of vertical sounding instruments aboard TIROS N (13 Oct 1978) and NOAA 6 (27 June 1979) is reported. The first evaluation of soundings from TIROS N found that oceanic, cloudy retrievals over NH mid latitudes show a cold bias in winter. It is confirmed for both satellite systems using a larger data base. It is shown that RMS differences between retrievals and colocated radiosonde observations within the swath 30-60N during the 1979-80 winter were generally 2-3K in clear air and higher for cloudy columns. A positive impact of TIROS N temperatures on the analysis of synoptic weather systems is shown. Analyses prepared from only satellite temperatures seemed to give a better definition to weather systems' thermal structure than that provided by corresponding NMC analyses without satellite data. The results of a set of 14 numerical forecast experiments performed with the PE model of the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) are summarized; these were designed to test the impact of TIROS N and NOAA 6 temperatures within the IMS analysis and forecast cycle. The satellite data coverage over the NH, the mean area/period S1 and RMS verification scores and the spatial distribution of SAT versus NO SAT forecast differences are discussed and it is concluded that positive forecast impact occurs over ocean areas where the extra data improve the specification which is otherwise available from conventional observations. The forecast impact for three cases from the same set of experiments was examined and it is found that satellite temperatures, observed over the Atlantic Ocean contribute to better forecasts over Iceland and central Europe although a worse result was verified over Spain. It is also shown that the better scores of a forecast based also on satellite data and verified over North America actually represent a mixed impact on the forecast synoptic patterns. A superior 48 hr 500 mb forecast over the western US due to the better initial specification afforded by satellite observed temperatures over the North Pacific Ocean is shown.

Druyan, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Error Growth in Operational 10-day Forecasts

The rate of growth of forecast errors has been estimated previously, using as data base 100 consecutive 10-day operational forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF). The growth of the difference between two model forecasts verifying the same day was parameterized. This parameterization of error growth was extended by including the effect of model deficiencies as well as their scale dependence. In this way the forecaster are able to fit real forecast error growth and determine the scale dependence of the derived parameters (rate of error growth, external error source due to model errors, and saturation levels). This work is a necessary step in the application of the Lagged Average Forecasting (LAF) technique to the ECMWF 10-day forecasts. It is found that for both the analyses and the forecasts, there is an approximate equipartition of energy between all the zonal wavenumbers m corresponding to the same total wavenumber n.

Kalnay, E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Accuracy analysis of TDRSS demand forecasts

This paper reviews Space Network (SN) demand forecasting experience over the past 16 years and describes methods used in the forecasts. The paper focuses on the Single Access (SA) service, the most sought-after resource in the Space Network. Of the ten years of actual demand data available, only the last five years (1989 to 1993) were considered predictive due to the extensive impact of the Challenger accident of 1986. NASA's Space Network provides tracking and communications services to user spacecraft such as the Shuttle and the Hubble Space Telescope. Forecasting the customer requirements is essential to planning network resources and to establishing service commitments to future customers. The lead time to procure Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS's) requires demand forecasts ten years in the future a planning horizon beyond the funding commitments for missions to be supported. The long range forecasts are shown to have had a bias toward underestimation in the 1991 -1992 period. The trend of underestimation can be expected to be replaced by overestimation for a number of years starting with 1998. At that time demand from new missions slated for launch will be larger than the demand from ongoing missions, making the potential for delay the dominant factor. If the new missions appear as scheduled, the forecasts are likely to be moderately underestimated. The SN commitment to meet the negotiated customer's requirements calls for conservatism in the forecasting. Modification of the forecasting procedure to account for a delay bias is, therefore, not advised. Fine tuning the mission model to more accurately reflect the current actual demand is recommended as it may marginally improve the first year forecasting.

Stern, Daniel C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Global Aerosol Model Forecast for the ACE-Asia Field Experiment

We present the results of aerosol forecast during the Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) field experiment in spring 2001, using the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and the meteorological forecast fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The aerosol model forecast provides direct information on aerosol optical thickness and concentrations, enabling effective flight planning, while feedbacks from measurements constantly evaluate the model, making successful model improvements. We verify the model forecast skill by comparing model predicted total aerosol extinction, dust, sulfate, and SO2 concentrations with those quantities measured by the C-130 aircraft during the ACE-Asia intensive operation period. The GEOS DAS meteorological forecast system shows excellent skills in predicting winds, relative humidity, and temperature for the ACE-Asia experiment area as well as for each individual flight, with skill scores usually above 0.7. The model is also skillful in forecast of pollution aerosols, with most scores above 0.5. The model correctly predicted the dust outbreak events and their trans-Pacific transport, but it constantly missed the high dust concentrations observed in the boundary layer. We attribute this missing dust source to the desertification regions in the Inner Mongolia Province in China, which have developed in recent years but were not included in the model during forecasting. After incorporating the desertification sources, the model is able to reproduce the observed high dust concentrations at low altitudes over the Yellow Sea. Two key elements for a successful aerosol model forecast are correct source locations that determine where the emissions take place, and realistic forecast winds and convection that determine where the aerosols are transported. We demonstrate that our global model can not only account for the large-scale intercontinental transport, but also produce the small-scale spatial and temporal variations that are adequate for aircraft measurements planning.

Chin, Mian↗

NASA NTRS2011

Real-Time CME Forecasting Using HMI Active-Region Magnetograms and Flare History

We have recently developed a method of predicting an active region s probability of producing a CME, an X-class Flare, an M-class Flare, or a Solar Energetic Particle Event from a free-energy proxy measured from SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. This year we have added three major improvements to our forecast tool: 1) Transition from MDI magnetogram to SDO/HMI magnetogram allowing us near-real-time forecasts, 2) Automation of acquisition and measurement of HMI magnetograms giving us near-real-time forecasts (no older than 2 hours), and 3) Determination of how to improve forecast by using the active region s previous flare history in combination with its free-energy proxy. HMI was turned on in May 2010 and MDI was turned off in April 2011. Using the overlap period, we have calibrated HMI to yield what MDI would measure. This is important since the value of the free-energy proxy used for our forecast is resolution dependent, and the forecasts are made from results of a 1996-2004 database of MDI observations. With near-real-time magnetograms from HMI, near-real-time forecasts are now possible. We have augmented the code so that it continually acquires and measures new magnetograms as they become available online, and updates the whole-sun forecast from the coming day. The next planned improvement is to use an active region s previous flare history, in conjunction with its free-energy proxy, to forecast the active region s event rate. It has long been known that active regions that have produced flares in the past are likely to produce flares in the future, and that active regions that are nonpotential (have large free-energy) are more likely to produce flares in the future. This year we have determined that persistence of flaring is not just a reflection of an active region s free energy. In other words, after controlling for free energy, we have found that active regions that have flared recently are more likely to flare in the future.

Falconer, David↗

NASA NTRS2008

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Barrett, Joe, III↗

NASA NTRS2005

Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourn, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May-September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC (0700 AM EST) each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to increase consistency between forecasters while enabling them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) for which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data. The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at the two organizations provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU. The densities were first stratified by flow regime, then by time in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for each stratification and grid box by counting the number of days with lightning and dividing by the total number of days in the data set. New CG strike densities were calculated for each stratification and grid box by summing the strike number values over all warm seasons, then normalized by dividing the summed values by the number of lightning days. This makes the densities conditional on whether lightning occurred. The frequency climatology values will be used by forecasters as proxy inputs for lightning prObability, while the density climatology values will be used for CG amount. In addition to the benefits outlined above, these climatologies will provide improved temporal and spatial resolution, expansion of the lightning threat area to include adjacent coastal waters, and potential to extend the forecast to include the day-2 period. This presentation will describe the lightning threat index map, discuss the work done to create the maps initialized with climatological guidance, and show examples of the climatological CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurren based on flow regime.

Lambert, Winnie↗

NASA NTRS2005

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral

Using meteorology data, focusing on precipitable water (PW), obtained during the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons in Central Florida, this paper will, one, assess the skill and accuracy measurements of the current Mazany forecasting tool and, two, provide additional forecasting tools that can be used in predicting lightning. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are located in east Central Florida. KSC and CCAFS process and launch manned (NASA Space Shuttle) and unmanned (NASA and Air Force Expendable Launch Vehicles) space vehicles. One of the biggest cost impacts is unplanned launch scrubs due to inclement weather conditions such as thunderstorms. Each launch delay/scrub costs over a quarter million dollars, and the need to land the Shuttle at another landing site and return to KSC costs approximately $ 1M. Given the amount of time lost and costs incurred, the ability to accurately forecast (predict) when lightning will occur can result in significant cost and time savings. All lightning prediction models were developed using binary logistic regression. Lightning is the dependent variable and is binary. The independent variables are the Precipitable Water (PW) value for a given time of the day, the change in PW up to 12 hours, the electric field mill value, and the K-index value. In comparing the Mazany model results for the 1999 period B against actual observations for the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons, differences were found in the False Alarm Rate (FAR), Probability of Detection (POD) and Hit Rate (H). On average, the False Alarm Rate (FAR) increased by 58%, the Probability of Detection (POD) decreased by 31% and the Hit Rate decreased by 20%. In comparing the performance of the 6 hour forecast period to the performance of the 1.5 hour forecast period for the Mazany model, the FAR was lower by 15% and the Hit Rate was higher by 7%. However, the POD for the 6 hour forecast period was lower by 16% as compared to the POD of the 1.5 hour forecast period. Neither forecast period performed at the accuracy measures expected. A 2-Hr Forecasting Tool was developed to support a Phase I Lightning Advisory, which requires a 30-minute lead time for predicting lightning.

Kehrer, Kristen↗

NASA NTRS2004

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗

NASA NTRS2013

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasts for East-Central Florida Airports

The forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL, (NWS MLB) identified a need to make more accurate lightning forecasts to help alleviate delays due to thunderstorms in the vicinity of several commercial airports in central Florida at which they are responsible for issuing terminal aerodrome forecasts. Such forecasts would also provide safer ground operations around terminals, and would be of value to Center Weather Service Units serving air traffic controllers in Florida. To improve the forecast, the AMU was tasked to develop an objective lightning probability forecast tool for the airports using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The resulting forecast tool is similar to that developed by the AMU to support space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for use by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in previous tasks (Lambert and Wheeler 2005, Lambert 2007). The lightning probability forecasts are valid for the time periods and areas needed by the NWS MLB forecasters in the warm season months, defined in this task as May-September.

Crawford, Winfred C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly.

GMAO↗

NASA NTRS2020

Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations Impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation Predictions: Case Studies from the NASA GEOS Seasonal Forecast System

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would have great societal benefit. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean salinity. Satellite sea surface salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to improve the estimates of ocean density changes and associated near-surface mixing. For the first time, we assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean reanalyses and how these initializations impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using NASA’s coupled forecast system (GEOS-S2S-2). For all initialization experiments, all available sea level and in situ temperature and salinity observations are assimilated. Separate observing system experiments (OSE) additionally assimilate Aquarius, and SMAP, SMOS, and these datasets combined. We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing experiments with and without the application of SSS assimilation. Next, we compare case studies of coupled forecasts for the big 2015 El Niño, the 2017 La Niña, and the weak El Niño in 2018 that are initialized from GEOS-S2S-2 spring reanalyses that assimilate and withhold along-track SSS. For each of these ENSO-event case studies, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation with respect to observed NINO3.4 anomalies (or at least reduces the forecast uncertainty). Satellite SSS assimilation improved characterization of the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better forecasts. These results further underline the value of satellite SSS assimilation into operational forecast systems.

Eric Hackert↗

NASA NTRS2020

Evaluating Flood Forecasting System Performance in Cambodia

Every year, Cambodia experiences flooding as a result of monsoon rains and typhoons. Flood forecasting systems are designed to enable people to mitigate economic and social impacts from these events. However, in order for forecasts to be used effectively, an assessment of their accuracy is needed. This study demonstrates the performance of regional and global flood forecasting systems over the 2019 flood season. To do this, we assess the flood forecast accuracy at different forecast lead times and gauge locations in Cambodia. We then compare the flood forecast performance to satellite-based flood maps produced by the Hydrological Remote Sensing Analysis of Floods (HYDRAFloods) tool currently being co-developed by SERVIR-Mekong in collaboration with the Myanmar Department of Disaster Management. This assessment of the flood forecasting systems’ performance and comparison to flood extents helps (1) provide valuable information to forecasters and disaster managers as they make improvements to their models, and (2) provides support to forecast users as they evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different systems for taking action.

Nauman, Claire↗

NASA NTRS2020

Using a Simple Water Balance Framework to Quantify the Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Subseasonal Evapotranspiration and Air Temperature Forecasts

Past studies have shown that accurate soil moisture initialization can contribute significant skill to near-surface air temperature (T2M) forecasts at subseasonal leads. The mechanisms by which soil moisture contributes such skill are examined here with a simple water balance-based model that captures the essence of soil moisture behavior in a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The simple model successfully transforms initial soil moisture contents into average “forecasted” ET values at 16-30 day lead that agree well, during summer, with the values forecasted by the full NASA GEOS S2S system, indicating that soil moisture initialization dominates over forecasted meteorology in determining ET fluxes at subseasonal leads. When the simple model’s ET anomalies are interpreted in terms of T2M anomalies, a similar conclusion is reached for T2M: soil moisture initialization explains much (about 50% in the eastern half of the continental US) of the T2M anomalies produced by the full GEOS S2S system at 16-30 day lead, and the T2M forecasts produced by the simple model capture about half of the skill attained by the full system. The simple model’s framework is particularly conducive to an analysis of uncertainty in forecasts. Drier soils are generally found to induce larger uncertainty in ET (and thus T2M) forecasts, a result linked to the functional form relating ET to soil moisture in the simple model and verified by an analysis of the ensemble spreads within the forecasts produced by the full GEOS S2S system

Randal D Koster↗

NASA NTRS2021

Developing a Hydrological Monitoring and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting System for South and Southeast Asian River Basins

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Yifan Zhou↗

NASA NTRS2020

Forecasting Global Fire Emissions on Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Time Scales

Fire emissions of gases and aerosols alter atmospheric composition and have substantial impacts on climate, ecosystem function, and human health. Warming climate and human expansion in fire‐prone landscapes exacerbate fire impacts and call for more effective management tools. Here we developed a global fire forecasting system that predicts monthly emissions using past fire data and climate variables for lead times of 1 to 6 months. Using monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) as the prediction target, we fit a statistical time series model, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX), in over 1,300 different fire regions. Optimized parameters were then used to forecast future emissions. The forecast system took into account information about region‐specific seasonality, long‐term trends, recent fire observations, and climate drivers representing both large‐scale climate variability and local fire weather. We cross‐validated the forecast skill of the system with different combinations of predictors and forecast lead times. The reference model, which combined endogenous and exogenous predictors with a 1 month forecast lead time, explained 52% of the variability in the global fire emissions anomaly, considerably exceeding the performance of a reference model that assumed persistent emissions during the forecast period. The system also successfully resolved detailed spatial patterns of fire emissions anomalies in regions with significant fire activity. This study bridges the gap between the efforts of near‐real‐time fire forecasts and seasonal fire outlooks and represents a step toward establishing an operational global fire, smoke, and carbon cycle forecasting system.

vapor pressure↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗