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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

HPC Analytics of Fused Thermal Plants Data to Optimize Operating Envelope

In this project, ORNL extensively reviewed the ORAP RAM data, and it guided us to develop machine learning models that can predict time to next failures and forecast failure trends, which will be useful for optimizing power plant operation strategies. More specifically, we trained multiple random forest models and evaluated the model accuracy to validate with 10+ years of historical data. In addition, we implemented a web-based graphical user interface system for the models to show how our models can be used in more intuitive ways. This proof of concept allowed exploration of model use with power plant operators in mind. Developed machine learning models will be helpful for managing risks, planning maintenance and operation, ultimately reducing the down time and increasing the service hours. For future work, there are several interesting research topics including but not limited to model enhancement, creating synergy with traditional failure modeling approaches, and data-driven actionable recommendation and suggestions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using electronic health record metadata to predict housing instability amongst veterans

Housing instability is considered a significant life stressor and preemptive screening should be applied to identify those at risk for homelessness as early as possible so that they can be targeted for specialized care. We developed models to classify patient outcomes for an established VA Homelessness Screening Clinical Reminder (HSCR), which identifies housing instability, in the two months prior to its administration. Logistic Regression and Random Forest models were fit to classify responses using the last 18 months of document activity. We measure concentration of risk across stratifications of predicted probability and observe an enriched likelihood of finding confirmed false negative responses from veterans with diagnosed housing instability. Positive responses were 34 times more likely to be detected within the top 1 % of patients predicted at risk than from those randomly selected. There is a 1 in 4 chance of detecting false negatives within the top 1 % of predicted risk. Machine learning methods can classify between episodes of housing instability using a data-driven approach that does not rely on variables curated from domain experts. This method has the potential to improve clinicians’ ability to identify veterans who are experiencing housing instability but are not captured by HSCR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

Accurately measuring water use by the economy is essential for developing reliable models of water resource availability. Indeed, these models rely on retrospective analyses that provide insights into shifting human population demands and adaptions to water shortages. However, accurate, methodologically consistent, empirically authentic, and spatiotemporally comprehensive historical datasets for water withdrawals are scarce. Herein, we present a reanalysis of annual resolution (1950–2016) historical data set on irrigation, electric power, and public supply water withdrawal within the conterminous United States (US) at the county-level, and, for power plants, at the site-level. To estimate electric power water use, we synthesized a historically comprehensive list of generators and historic patterns in generation across fuels, prime movers, and cooling technologies. Irrigation water use estimation required building a crop-demand model that utilized historical information on irrigated acreage for crops and golf courses, stage-specific crop water demand, and climate information. To estimate public water supply use, we developed a random forest model constructed from information on population, infrastructure, climate, and land cover. These estimates generally agree with total county and state water use information provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) water use circular and estimates generated from independent studies for specific years. However, we also observed discrepancies between our estimates and USGS data that appear to be caused by inconsistencies in the methods used by the USGS's primary data sources at the state level over decades of data collection, highlighting the importance of reanalysis to yield spatiotemporally consistent and intercomparable estimates of water use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1984

Spectral response curve models applied to forest cover-type discrimination

The potential of remote sensing systems to provide a cost-effective inventory tool in the case of forest resources is currently of interest to a variety of natural resources management agencies. A number of studies have been performed regarding the use of Landsat data for mapping forest resources in Michigan. The present paper is concerned with current research, which has been directed toward the development and evaluation of computer-implemented classifications for the identification and characterization of coniferous forest types in Michigan's northern Lower Peninsula. Attention is given to the characteristic response curves from Landsat MSS data, spectral response curve models, and forest cover-type discrimination. It is found that spectral response curve models can be used to evaluate and explain the characteristic spectral responses of coniferous forest types on a snow-covered, winter Landsat scene.

Hudson, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Design of Materials with Alchemite

Machine learning models that establish the relationships between materials processing and properties can enable inverse design of materials through active learning. Alchemite is a commercial software that can perform inverse materials design on sparse data. Here we evaluate Alchemite’s performance on a dataset of shape memory alloys and a dataset of heat exchangers compared to baseline random forest models. Alchemite had higher accuracy when making predictions on sparse data and was more accurate or nearly as accurate as random forests on complete datasets while also quantifying uncertainty. The software was also used to suggest processing steps and design parameters to optimize properties and performance; however, physical validation of the suggested design parameters was beyond the scope of this work. Several useful design insights were gained about the impact of the design parameters on properties and performance including the importance of dopant choice and amount for shape memory alloys and the importance of height and weight on the thermal resistance of heat exchangers.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global variation in the fraction of leaf nitrogen allocated to photosynthesis

Plants invest a considerable amount of leaf nitrogen in the photosynthetic enzyme ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase (RuBisCO), forming a strong coupling of nitrogen and photosynthetic capacity. Variability in the nitrogen-photosynthesis relationship indicates different nitrogen use strategies of plants (i.e., the fraction nitrogen allocated to RuBisCO; fLNR), however, the reason for this remains unclear as widely different nitrogen use strategies are adopted in photosynthesis models. Here, we use a comprehensive database of in situ observations, a remote sensing product of leaf chlorophyll and ancillary climate and soil data, to examine the global distribution in fLNR using a random forest model. We find global fLNR is 18.2 ± 6.2%, with its variation largely driven by negative dependence on leaf mass per area and positive dependence on leaf phosphorus. Some climate and soil factors (i.e., light, atmospheric dryness, soil pH, and sand) have considerable positive influences on fLNR regionally. This study provides insight into the nitrogen-photosynthesis relationship of plants globally and an improved understanding of the global distribution of photosynthetic potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Individualized Survival Predictions From Random Survival Forests and Multistate Models in the Presence of Missing Data: A Case Study of Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer

Background: In recent years, interest in prognostic calculators for predicting patient health outcomes has grown with the popularity of personalized medicine. These calculators, which can inform treatment decisions, employ many different methods, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. Methods: We present a comparison of a multistate model (MSM) and a random survival forest (RSF) through a case study of prognostic predictions for patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. The MSM is highly structured and takes into account some aspects of the clinical context and knowledge about oropharyngeal cancer, while the RSF can be thought of as a black-box non-parametric approach. Key in this comparison are the high rate of missing values within these data and the different approaches used by the MSM and RSF to handle missingness. Results: We compare the accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of survival probabilities predicted by both approaches and use simulation studies to better understand how predictive accuracy is influenced by the approach to (1) handling missing data and (2) modeling structural/disease progression information present in the data. We conclude that both approaches have similar predictive accuracy, with a slight advantage going to the MSM. Conclusions: Although the MSM shows slightly better predictive ability than the RSF, consideration of other differences are key when selecting the best approach for addressing a specific research question. These key differences include the methods’ ability to incorporate domain knowledge, and their ability to handle missing data as well as their interpretability, and ease of implementation. Ultimately, selecting the statistical method that has the most potential to aid in clinical decisions requires thoughtful consideration of the specific goals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Meteorological Dust Events and Machine-Learning Based Dust Identification in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

NASA scientists in the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) developed a physically-based machine learning approach to identify dust in satellite imagery with a focus on night-time dust detection (Berndt et al. 201; DustTracker-AI). NASA/NOAA Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite-16 (GOES-16) imagery was used for training and model inputs. The training, testing and validation data set consists of 28 events in the Southwest United States, capturing dust and null events in the region from 2018-2020.With 83 distinct images and millions of pixels a random forest model was trained and validated, correctly labeling 85% of dust pixels.For the first time, the model was run in near-real time production during the spring of 2022 and dust probability visualizations were made available to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to assess its utility for dust forecasting. Results indicated the model helped increase the confidence in the presence of dust and enabled dust tracking for a longer period of time into the night-time hours. Forecaster assessment and running the model in near real-time allowed for the team to determine the types of events missed, captured, and false alarms. To gain additional context on model performance,the SPoRT team sought to gather more detailed information on the training database(e.g., meteorological characteristics and drivers). The goal of this project was to identify the meteorological drivers for the dust events and create a database which synthesized information from observations, forecaster discussions, and analyses pertaining to the dust events to understand the types of events currently used to train the model. A more detailed meteorological synopsis was created for each dust event in the training, testing, and validation datasets. Following the completion of the database and documentation, the classification details revealed that 88% of the dust events were synoptically driven while mesoscale events were less prevalent in model datasets. Meteorological conditions found such as mixing layer depth and wind velocity had mean values of 645mb and 21kt respectively.With conditions of deep mixed layers and moderate to strong surface winds a mesoscale thunderstorm outflow event was considered and subsequently added to the model training data set to test the impact of additional mesoscale training data. The model was retrained and then qualitatively tested on a sample thunderstorm outflow case that the original model was unable to identify. Preliminary results showed potential that the addition of more mesoscale events included in the training data could help to better identify indistinct and localized dust events.

Connor Welch↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil Origin and Plant Genotype Modulate Switchgrass Aboveground Productivity and Root Microbiome Assembly

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is a model perennial grass for bioenergy production that can be productive in agricultural lands that are not suitable for food production. There is growing interest in whether its associated microbiome may be adaptive in low- or no-input cultivation systems. However, the relative impact of plant genotype and soil factors on plant microbiome and biomass are a challenge to decouple. To address this, a common garden greenhouse experiment was carried out using six common switchgrass genotypes, which were each grown in four different marginal soils collected from long-term bioenergy research sites in Michigan and Wisconsin. We characterized the fungal and bacterial root communities with high-throughput amplicon sequencing of the ITS and 16S rDNA markers, and collected phenological plant traits during plant growth, as well as soil chemical traits. At harvest, we measured the total plant aerial dry biomass. Significant differences in richness and Shannon diversity across soils but not between plant genotypes were found. Generalized linear models showed an interaction between soil and genotype for fungal richness but not for bacterial richness. Community structure was also strongly shaped by soil origin and soil origin × plant genotype interactions. Overall, plant genotype effects were significant but low. Random Forest models indicate that important factors impacting switchgrass biomass included NO 3 – , Ca 2+ , PO 4 3– , and microbial biodiversity. We identified 54 fungal and 52 bacterial predictors of plant aerial biomass, which included several operational taxonomic units belonging to Glomeraceae and Rhizobiaceae, fungal and bacterial lineages that are involved in provisioning nutrients to plants.

plant biomass↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh↗
NASA NTRS1999

Northern Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Using Coupled Models and Remote Sensing

Forest ecosystem dynamics modeling, remote sensing data analysis, and a geographical information system (GIS) were used together to determine the possible growth and development of a northern forest in Maine, USA. Field measurements and airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data were used to produce maps of forest cover type and above ground biomass. These forest attribute maps, along with a conventional soils map, were used to identify the initial conditions for forest ecosystem model simulations. Using this information along with ecosystem model results enabled the development of predictive maps of forest development. The results obtained were consistent with observed forest conditions and expected successional trajectories. The study demonstrated that ecosystem models might be used in a spatial context when parameterized and used with georeferenced data sets.

Ranson, K. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Power System Feature-Based Event Classification by Means of Multiple PMU Data

Abstract—Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) provide time synchronized measurements across the power grid, enabling data driven event detection and classification for enhanced system monitoring and situational awareness. However, variations in event duration, spatial extent, and severity, along with coincident events, pose challenges for conventional classification models that require fixed-size inputs. This paper presents a feature-based framework that aggregates diverse attributes from all available PMUs for each event into a fixed-length vector, facilitating the application of standard machine learning classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and Multilayer Perceptron. A probabilistic post-processing scheme is further introduced to enable multi-label classification in the presence of overlapping events. Experiments using real-world PMU data demonstrate that the Random Forest model achieves 95% accuracy, while the proposed post-processing method yields an additional 3% improvement.

Nematirad, Reza↗
DOE OSTI2026

Protection System Validation with Machine Learning Anomaly Classification

A poster for the Early Career Poster Session. Power system protection devices have transitioned over the past few decades from mechanical to analog devices, then to solid state and finally digital. Relays and their associated critical network of equipment have significantly increased in complexity. Even internally, relays have gained significant intricacy, with relatively simple overcurrent or differential functions now being assisted by a myriad of other functions. This is necessary as the grid becomes more complex, but it brings increased difficulty in monitoring and upkeep. Misoperation caused by improper relay settings or malicious actions is a constant challenge faced by all utilities. These improper settings can be difficult to identify and may require exhaustive post-mortem analysis, typically after a major outage event has already occurred. A mechanism is needed for monitoring the behavior of protection systems to validate that they act and perform as expected. This work presents a concept for a machine learning (ML) system capable of validating the performance of protection systems by classifying anomalous events and characterizing protection system responses based solely on available current and voltage measurements. As a first step in its development, an experimental dataset is generated, and a random forest model is implemented with high accuracy in distinguishing four power system scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning of 27Al NMR electric field gradient tensors for crystalline structures from DFT

NMR crystallography has emerged as a promising technique for the determination and refinement of atomic coordinates in crystal structures. The crystal structure of compounds containing quadrupolar nuclei, such as 27Al, can be improved by directly comparing solid-state NMR measurements to DFT computations of the electric field gradient (EFG) tensor. The non-negligible computational cost of these first-principles calculations limits the applicability of this method to all but the most well-defined structures. We developed a fast, low-cost machine learning model to predict EFG parameters based on local structural motifs and elemental parameters. We computed 8081 EFG tensors from 1681 27Al crystalline solids using DFT and benchmarked them against 105 experimentally measured 27Al sites. Surprisingly, simple local geometric features dominate the predictive performance of the resulting random-forest model, yielding an R2 value of 0.98 and an RMSE of 0.61 MHz for CQ, the quadrupolar coupling constant. This model accuracy should enable pre-refining future structural assignments before finally validating with first-principles calculations. Such a catalogue of 27Al NMR tensors can serve as a tool for researchers assigning complex NMR spectra influenced by the nuclear electric quadrupole interaction.

Sun, He↗
DOE OSTI2024

A new data-driven map predicts substantial undocumented peatland areas in Amazonia

Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense terrestrial ecosystems yet recorded. Collectively, they comprise a large but highly uncertain reservoir of the global carbon cycle, with wide-ranging estimates of their global area (441 025–1700 000 km 2 ) and below-ground carbon storage (105–288 Pg C). Substantial gaps remain in our understanding of peatland distribution in some key regions, including most of tropical South America. Here we compile 2413 ground reference points in and around Amazonian peatlands and use them alongside a stack of remote sensing products in a random forest model to generate the first field-data-driven model of peatland distribution across the Amazon basin. Our model predicts a total Amazonian peatland extent of 251 015 km 2 (95th percentile confidence interval: 128 671–373 359), greater than that of the Congo basin, but around 30% smaller than a recent model-derived estimate of peatland area across Amazonia. The model performs relatively well against point observations but spatial gaps in the ground reference dataset mean that model uncertainty remains high, particularly in parts of Brazil and Bolivia. For example, we predict significant peatland areas in northern Peru with relatively high confidence, while peatland areas in the Rio Negro basin and adjacent south-western Orinoco basin which have previously been predicted to hold Campinarana or white sand forests, are predicted with greater uncertainty. Similarly, we predict large areas of peatlands in Bolivia, surprisingly given the strong climatic seasonality found over most of the country. Very little field data exists with which to quantitatively assess the accuracy of our map in these regions. Data gaps such as these should be a high priority for new field sampling. This new map can facilitate future research into the vulnerability of peatlands to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, which is likely to vary spatially across the Amazon basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automation-Accelerated Electrolyte Design Mitigates Solubility Competition between Redox-Active Molecules and Supporting Salts

In nonaqueous redox-flow batteries (NRFBs), redox-active organic molecules (ROMs) and supporting salts compete for solvation sites, limiting achievable energy density. We combine automated high-throughput experimentation (HTE) with camera-based saturation monitoring and quantitative NMR to measure paired (ROM, salt) solubilities across single and mixed organic solvents. Using 2,1,3-benzothiadiazole (BTZ) with lithium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (LiTFSI) as a model system, we find that a binary m-xylene/acetonitrile mixture dissolves ≈3 M of both BTZ and LiTFSI─surpassing the previously reported 2 M ceiling for neat acetonitrile─by leveraging complementary solvation (MX is BTZ-philic and salt-phobic; ACN stabilizes LiTFSI). A random-forest model (RMSE ≈ 0.24) trained on solvent descriptors highlights log P and salt concentration as dominant predictors and predicts MX/ACN ≈0.3/0.7 (v/v) to be near-optimal. These formulations retain practical viscosity and ∼5 mS·cm –1 conductivity at high loading. In conclusion, the workflow provides a reproducible, data-centric route to NRFB electrolyte design and motivates an open, standardized dual-solute solubility resource for accelerated electrolyte discovery.

Electrolytes↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fire, insect and disease‐caused tree mortalities increased in forests of greater structural diversity during drought

Abstract Structural diversity is an emerging dimension of biodiversity that accounts for size variations in organs among individuals in a community. Previous studies show significant effects of structural diversity on forest growth, but its effects on forest mortality are not known, particularly at a large scale. To address this knowledge gap, we quantified structural diversity using stem structural diversity (SSD) based on both tree diameter and height. We obtained U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from over 2400 plots across southcentral U.S. forests that have suffered a recent drought. Using data from multiple sampling times, we calculated SSD and compared the relative importance of SSD, species diversity, functional diversity and other stand attributes in determining tree mortalities caused by fire, insects and diseases. We also used FIRETEC, a physics‐based fire model, to test the effect of SSD on canopy consumption by fire. Our results showed that (1) SSD was positively associated with tree mortalities caused by all three disturbances; (2) species richness was negatively associated with insect‐ and disease‐caused mortalities; (3) functional diversity was negatively associated with fire‐ and disease‐caused mortalities and (4) more phylogenetically related species had more similar mortality rates by insect and disease but not fire. Moreover, the FIRETEC model showed increasing canopy consumption by fire in stands with greater SSD. Together, the different tree mortalities during drought associated with SSD more consistently than the other biodiversity metrics were evaluated. Synthesis . Our results suggest that SSD could be considered in modelling forest dynamics and planning management to sustain forest health under disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Grand Canyon Ecological Forecasting: Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor and Model Juniper Woodland Mortality in Grand Canyon National Park

Significant die-offs of the drought tolerant species Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma) and one-seeded juniper (Juniperus monosperma) have been observed throughout central and northern Arizona, including Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP). As climate models project rising temperatures and continuous drought, land managers are concerned for the future of juniper in and around GCNP. This project incorporated data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and ocular samples of the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) in a random forest model to identify patterns between characteristics of the landscape and locations of juniper woodland mortality and to model areas subject to vulnerability. This study found no significant correlation between ocularly sampled juniper tree mortality and remotely sensed environmental variables used thus, accurately modeling mortality vulnerability in the future was not feasible. The ocular sampling, however, allows the partners at the GCNP’s Science & Resource Management Division to better understand areas of juniper tree woodland mortality and the relative amount of mortality in the park. Additionally, the areas of juniper tree mortality found in this project provide the partners with guidance for future field sampling.

Scarlet Jackson↗