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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Disentangling the drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth

Tree-ring chronologies are an invaluable data source that provides insight into the ecology and physiology of forests across broad spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, these data have a foundation in paleoclimatic research and have been used for decades to reconstruct climate, fire and other disturbances for several centuries to millennia into the past. Contemporary ecological studies have also used growth data to examine the responses of trees to environmental variability or biotic and abiotic stressors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric methane removal: a research agenda

Atmospheric methane removal (e.g. in situ methane oxidation to carbon dioxide) may be needed to offset continued methane release and limit the global warming contribution of this potent greenhouse gas. Because mitigating most anthropogenic emissions of methane is uncertain this century, and sudden methane releases from the Arctic or elsewhere cannot be excluded, technologies for methane removal or oxidation may be required. Carbon dioxide removal has an increasingly well-established research agenda and technological foundation. No similar framework exists for methane removal. We believe that a research agenda for negative methane emissions—‘removal' or atmospheric methane oxidation—is needed. We outline some considerations for such an agenda here, including a proposed Methane Removal Model Intercomparison Project (MR-MIP). This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interplay of quantum information, thermodynamics, and gravity in the early Universe

Our interdisciplinary proposal brought together a unique team of researchers to tackle foundational questions on the quantum origins of the Universe and out-of-equilibrium quantum systems in general. The specific goals of our proposal were as follows. First, to develop a self-consistent quantum mechanical framework for the early Universe using an open system approach, with focus on non-Markovian vs. Markovian evolution of system modes and signatures in late-time observables. Second, to explore the use of quantum resource theory and thermodynamics techniques to understand the initial conditions of the Universe. Third, to in vestigate open quantum system dynamics in strongly-coupled qubit and oscillator systems, with focus on non-Markovian evolution, entanglement dynamics, and quantum backaction, including experimental real izations and implications for gravity. And fourth, to establish thermodynamics for chaotic quantum systems, with emphasis on dynamics of information scrambling and implications for black hole solutions in AdS/CFT and quantum gravity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Feasibility of Using Fourier Neural Operators for 3D Elastic Seismic Simulations

Seismic simulations in three-dimensional (3D) Earth models are important in many of the seismological applications related to our lab’s mission, however, accurate high-fidelity simulations are computationally costly. We investigated the capabilities of the newly developed Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) to solve the 3D elastic wave equations for seismic simulations. We generated simulation data for training the FNO model, and analyzed its performance on various test cases, such as the performance with different number of training data, different resolutions, and on more canonical structures. We found the FNO model can reproduce 3D seismic simulations with high accuracy and ~169 times faster on a small spatial grid size of 16 x 16 x16. When applied on higher resolution data, we found that transfer learning with fine-tuning on a small amount of data achieves reasonable results. This feasibility study showed promising results for using FNO’s for 3D seismic simulations and represents the foundation of further research to develop this into a more mature approach for different seismological applications. The potential impact of this project will provide techniques for large-scale or real-time applications of solving PEDs in support of national lab’s programs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

A Safe Response to Renewable Energy Hazards

The International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) and Underwriters Laboratories, LLC (UL) in conjunction with UL Solutions initiated a joint project in 2022 under an agreement with the United States Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (DOE-EERE). This project focused on two separate and important initiatives related to energy efficiency in residential buildings. Initiative 1: Fire Performance on Energy Efficient Exterior Walls. Initiative 2: Firefighting Tactics in Residential Properties with Building Energy Storage Systems (BESS). The project’s first initiative addresses concerns surrounding new technologies with enhanced, energy-efficient exterior walls installed on residential properties. The concerns of fire rapidly traveling vertically up the exterior of these walls were examined. This addressed a growing concern from the first responder community that many times, the fires on the exterior of residential buildings have already evolved into an attic fire by the time of arrival – making it problematic to address the fire scenario. The test plan for Initiative 1 incorporated a modified version of an American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) test method, ASTM E2707, Standard Test Method for Determining Fire Penetration of Exterior Wall Assemblies Using a Direct Flame Impingement Exposure, as the foundation of the research. The test method involved a wall structure intended to represent retrofit construction to evaluate how fire would spread vertically or laterally. The second aspect of the UL-IAFF Project focuses on the fire service response to Residential Battery Energy Storage System (RBESS) incidents. These simulation tests were constructed in the large-scale fire test facility at UL Solutions’ Northbrook, IL campus. A baseline test was conducted that involved a test structure with no batteries—shelving units populated with standardized commodities, representing a typical garage with cellulosic and plastic contents. Three additional tests have been conducted to generate data with the contribution of energy storage system (ESS) batteries to compare fire and explosion hazards against the baseline test. Through this work, fire service tactical considerations can be explored. From the data, the team can determine 1) the visual indicators of a residential fire that has involved an RBESS (or, potentially, other large batteries) and 2) the impact of fire service-initiated ventilation of the structure on the fire conditions and explosion risks.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Rapid Flux Phenotyping to Accelerate Metabolic Engineering of Cyanobacteria

This project established a rapid flux phenotyping platform to accelerate metabolic engineering of cyanobacterial hosts. As proof of principle, we applied this platform to optimize cyanobacterial production of isobutyraldehyde and ethylene in Synechococcus PCC 7942, as well as lysine and fatty acids in the fast-growing strain S ynechococcus PCC 7002. By matching the throughput of strain characterization to the rate of strain generation, this research provided the foundation for a rational “design-build-test-learn” cycle for metabolic engineering of cyanobacteria and other bioenergy-relevant microbes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Large-scale offshore wind farm effects on weather and climate in Puerto Rico (Final Technical Report)

Puerto Rico’s current electricity generation heavily relies on imported fossil fuels. This results in an average cost of electricity higher than the U.S. mainland average in all sectors (residential, commercial, and industrial), despite abundant local offshore wind resources, which have the potential to provide secure, low-cost energy generation and consequent economic prosperity. However, effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation resulting from large-scale deployments of offshore wind farms have not been previously studied at tropical latitude. This project addressed this knowledge gap through a computational modeling effort designed to capture the coupled dynamics of the atmosphere and the ocean in presence of offshore wind farms. Results indicate that wind farm wakes can alter wind stress, generate Ekman-driven vertical transport, and potentially affect nutrient distribution. While full model coupling remains challenging, progress in parameterization and large-eddy simulations provides a foundation for future research. The project contributes to DOE’s Earth System modeling efforts and supports STEM workforce development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparative transcriptomic and phenotypic analysis of monoclonal and polyclonal Populus deltoides genotypes

Populus species are highly valued for bioenergy and bioproducts due to their rapid growth and productivity. Polyclonal plantings, or mixtures of Populus clones, have shown the potential to enhance resource utilization and productivity, likely due to phenotypic differences arising from niche differentiation. In this study, we investigated gene expression and productivity in monoclonal and polyclonal stands of P. deltoides . Phenotypic results showed that polyclonal plots exhibited higher leaf area index (LAI; p < 0.01, 2.96 ± 0.057 m 2 ) and total biomass (p < 0.01, 2.74 ± 0.06) compared to monoclonal plots, indicating superior productivity. RNA sequencing revealed upregulation of key genes such as exocyst subunit exo70 family protein H7 (EXO70H7), NDH-dependent cyclic electron flow 5 (NDF5) , and expansin-like A3 (EXLA3) . We also observed enrichment in phenylalanine metabolism and other secondary metabolic pathways in clone S7C8. Phenotypic results, upregulated genes and enriched biological pathways identified in this study may explain the enhanced productivity, increased nitrate content, and expanded canopy in polyclonal plantings. Overall, this study provides a foundation for future research to enhance forest productivity by linking molecular mechanisms to practical applications in field plantings.

differential gene expression↗

The 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled land data assimilation system for E3SM version 2

Abstract. A new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system based on the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method is developed and applied to the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) method is employed to implement 4DVar using the ensemble technique instead of the adjoint technique. With an interest in providing initial conditions for decadal climate predictions, monthly mean anomalies of soil moisture and temperature from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) reanalysis from 1980 to 2016 are assimilated into the land component of E3SMv2 within the coupled modeling framework with a 1-month assimilation window. The coupled assimilation experiment is evaluated using multiple metrics, including the cost function, assimilation efficiency index, correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and bias, and compared with a control simulation without land data assimilation. The WCLDA system yields improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature compared with the control simulation, with improvements found throughout the soil layers and in many regions of the global land. In terms of both soil moisture and temperature, the assimilation experiment outperforms the control simulation with reduced RMSE and higher temporal correlation in many regions, especially in South America, central Africa, Australia, and large parts of Eurasia. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought, highlighting the crucial role of land surface in drought lifecycle. The WCLDA system is intended to be a foundational resource for research to investigate land-derived climate predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sample Identifiers and Metadata to Support Data Management and Reuse in Multidisciplinary Ecosystem Sciences

Physical samples are foundational entities for research across biological, Earth, and environmental sciences. Data generated from sample-based analyses are not only the basis of individual studies, but can also be integrated with other data to answer new and broader-scale questions. Ecosystem studies increasingly rely on multidisciplinary team-science to study climate and environmental changes. While there are widely adopted conventions within certain domains to describe sample data, these have gaps when applied in a multidisciplinary context. In this study, we reviewed existing practices for identifying, characterizing, and linking related environmental samples. We then tested practicalities of assigning persistent identifiers to samples, with standardized metadata, in a pilot field test involving eight United States Department of Energy projects. Participants collected a variety of sample types, with analyses conducted across multiple facilities. We address terminology gaps for multidisciplinary research and make recommendations for assigning identifiers and metadata that supports sample tracking, integration, and reuse. Furthermore, our goal is to provide a practical approach to sample management, geared towards ecosystem scientists who contribute and reuse sample data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Edge at the Pier: EPCAPE Software-Defined Sensing Field Campaign Report

The Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) was aimed to enhance the understanding of cloud and aerosol properties in the region surrounding La Jolla, California. To address challenges in data collection and processing from various instruments, an edge computing device known as Waggle Sage Node (WSN) was deployed at the Ellen Browning Scripps Memorial Pier. WSN is a distributed-sensing platform designed to collect and analyze environmental data at the edge. Sage is a multi-agency-supported project that designs and builds a new kind of national-scale reusable cyberinfrastructure to enable artificial intelligence (AI) at the edge based on the Waggle platform. Sponsors include the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR), DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE Biological and Environmental Research (BER) through DOE Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP), Argonne Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD). Sage (https://sagecontinuum.org/) is funded as a National Science Foundation Mid-Scale Research Infrastructure (MSRI) project (https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1935984). This robust, multi-architecture edge computing platform facilitated environmental monitoring during the campaign. This report details the scientific objectives, deployment process, and key results of integrating Waggle into the EPCAPE field campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Capturing high‐resolution digital images for use in forensic document examination

Abstract In the past, pattern disciplines within forensic science have periodically faced criticism due to their subjective and qualitative nature and the perceived absence of research evaluating and supporting the foundations of their practices. Recently, however, forensic scientists and researchers in the field of pattern evidence analysis have developed and published approaches that are more quantitative, objective, and data driven. This effort includes automation, algorithms, and measurement sciences, with the end goal of enabling conclusions to be informed by quantitative models. Before employing these tools, forensic evidence must be digitized in a way that adequately balances high‐quality detail and content capture with minimal background noise imparted by the selected technique. While the current work describes the process of optimizing a method to digitize physical documentary evidence for use in semi‐automated trash mark examinations, it could be applied to assist other disciplines where the digitization of physical items of evidence is prevalent. For trash mark examinations specifically, it was found that high‐resolution photography provided optimal digital versions of evidentiary items when compared to high‐resolution scanning.

Riley, Paige↗

Tunable Laser-Plasma Amplifier (Final Report)

Exploration at the laser intensity frontier has always offered new avenues for physics and reaching beyond this frontier is a grand challenge. Present-day petawatt-class lasers provide focused intensities on target of 10 22 W/cm 2 , corresponding to electric fields of 200 TV/m, while laser-plasma amplification opens a route for focused intensities well above 10 23 W/cm 2 . Intensities in this range provide the ability to test quantum electrodynamics in the unexplored low-energy, strong-field regime where signatures for new physics may arise. The behavior of matter under such extraordinary conditions is a rich and fascinating subject, not only in its own right in fundamental plasma physics, but for the many potential applications that promise to enrich the natural sciences in the future, including compact electron-beam, ion-beam particle accelerators, and ultra-bright X-ray sources. Although laser systems are now under construction internationally to access intensities of 10 23 W/cm 2 , the current technologies used appear to be fundamentally limited to these intensities. The realization of intensities beyond 10 23 W/cm 2 using parametric amplification in plasmas promises a breakthrough in high-energy density physics. Parametric amplification using Raman scattering in a plasma could provide the enabling technology for the generation of ultra-high-power laser pulses, but a more complete understanding of the nonlinear optics of plasmas is required. There is a significant gap in well-diagnosed laser-plasma instability studies of nonlinear plasma-wave phenomena, which are critical to understand for future laser-plasma devices. To achieve an efficient laser-plasma amplifier, plasma waves must be driven to large amplitude where significant energy can be rapidly transferred from the pump to the seed over the pulse duration of the seed. Simulations suggest that this nonlinear pump depletion regime can be achieved in the “pi-pulse” amplification regime. While simulations show this optimal regime with efficient amplification, it has remained elusive in experiments and there is a growing consensus within the community that thermal effects and pump beam limitations prevent laser-plasma amplifiers from progressing through the linear regime into the nonlinear pump depletion regime. Previous experiments have been significantly limited by the laser power available at the necessary wavelengths for the seed laser; therefore, the amplification is required to start in the linear regime where it is sensitive to many deleterious effects. The enabling technology (currently unique to plasma-wave amplification in the world) at the University of Rochester is the ability to provide a seed pulse with sufficient power (4 mJ/100 fs seed) to immediately drive nonlinear plasma waves into the pi-pulse regime and to tune its wavelength to optimize the efficiency of energy transfer. This in combination with the state-of-the-art OMEGA heater beams providing multiple kilojoules in a nanosecond to sufficiently heat the plasma make this system distinct from previous studies. These heater beams will provide, for the first time in Raman amplification studies, a homogeneous electron temperature high enough to prevent pump beam propagation issues that have plagued previous experiments. These systems will provide a platform for driving electron-plasma waves into the nonlinear regime where pump depletion and pulse shortening are predicted to lead to high amplification efficiencies (>30%). The Team has made significant progress through prior support from DOE Fusion Energy Sciences [DOE Office of Science Award Number DE-SC0016253 (2016-2022)]. This includes twenty-two peer-reviewed manuscripts, one patent, ten contributed talks presented at international conferences, and research that was highlighted as invited talks at fifteen international conferences. The broader impacts of this research are evident in the support of early career scientists, two Ph.D. theses, four current graduate students, a Masters Project, two undergraduate researchers, and an underrepresented minority student hired through the California Alliance for Minority Participation who now works as a Research Engineer in the group. This research met all of the funded research objectives and the highlights from primary Raman amplification thrust of this work are discussed below and form the foundation for the proposed research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Foundation model framework for all tasks involving jet physics

Foundation models use large datasets to build an effective representation of data that can be deployed on diverse downstream tasks. Previous research developed the omnilearn foundation model for jet physics, using unique properties of particle physics, and showed that it could significantly advance discovery potential across collider experiments. This paper introduces a major upgrade, resulting in the omnilearned framework. This framework has three new elements: (1) updates to the model architecture and training, (2) using over 1 × 10 9 jets used for training, and (3) providing well-documented software for accessing all datasets and models. We demonstrate omnilearned with three representative tasks: top-quark jet tagging with the community delphes-based benchmark dataset, b tagging with ATLAS full simulation, and anomaly detection with CMS experimental data. In each case, omnilearned is the state of the art, further expanding the discovery potential of past, current, and future collider experiments.

Bhimji, Wahid [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

A Review of Coccidioides Research, Outstanding Questions in the Field, and Contributions by Women Scientists

Abstract Purpose of Review Coccidioidomycosis is an infectious disease that gained clinical significance in the early 20th century. Many of the foundational contributions to coccidioidomycosis research, including the discovery of the fungal disease agent, Coccidioides spp., were made by women. We review recent progress in Coccidioides research and big questions remaining in the field, while highlighting some of the contributions from women. Recent Findings New molecular-based techniques provide a promising method for detecting Coccidioides, which can help determine the dominate reservoir host and ideal environmental conditions for growth. Genetic and genomic analyses have allowed an understanding of population structure, species level diversity, and evolutionary histories. We present a current, comprehensive genome list, where women contributed many of these entries. Several efforts to develop a coccidioidomycosis vaccine are underway. Summary Women continue to pioneer research on Coccidioides, including the relationships between the fungi and the environment, genetics, and clinical observations. Significant questions remain in the field of Coccidioides, including the main host reservoir, the relationships between genotypic and phenotypic variation, and the underlying cause for chronic clinical coccidioidomycosis cases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

State changes: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

Understanding the complex and unpredictable ways ecosystems are changing and predicting the state of ecosystems and the services they will provide in the future requires coordinated, long-term research. This paper is a product of a U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long Term Ecological Research (LTER)network synthesis effort that addressed anticipated changes in future populations and communities. Each LTER site described what their site would look like in50 or 100 yr based on long-term patterns and responses to global change drivers in each ecosystem. Common themes emerged and predictions were grouped into state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. Here, we report on the “state change” theme, which includes examples from the Georgia Coastal (coastal marsh), Konza Prairie (mesic grassland), Luquillo(tropical forest), Sevilleta (arid grassland), and Virginia Coastal (coastal grassland) sites. Ecological thresholds(the point at which small changes in an environmental driver can produce an abrupt and persistent state change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon) were most commonly predicted. For example, in coastal ecosystems, sea-level rise and climate change could convert salt marsh to mangroves and coastal barrier dunes to shrub thicket. Reduced fire frequency has converted grassland to shrubland in mesic prairie, whereas overgrazing combined with drought drive shrub encroachment in arid grasslands. Lastly, tropical cloud forests are susceptible to climate-induced changes in cloud base altitude leading to shifts in species distributions. Overall, these examples reveal that state change is a likely outcome of global environmental change across adverse range of ecosystems and highlight the need for long-term studies to sort out the causes and consequences of state change. The diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about state changes as an important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗