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NASA NTRS2004

Analytical Protocols for Analysis of Organic Molecules in Mars Analog Materials

A range of analytical techniques and protocols that might be applied b in situ investigations of martian fines, ices, and rock samples are evaluated by analysis of organic molecules m Mars analogues. These simulants 6om terrestrial (i.e. tephra from Hawaii) or extraterrestrial (meteoritic) samples are examined by pyrolysis gas chromatograph mass spectrometry (GCMS), organic extraction followed by chemical derivatization GCMS, and laser desorption mass spectrometry (LDMS). The combination of techniques imparts analysis breadth since each technique provides a unique analysis capability for Certain classes of organic molecules.

Mahaffy, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Entrainment, Drizzle, and Stratocumulus Cloud Albedo

Globally averaged cloud changes from GCMs on average show a doubling of the Twomey effect, which is the change in cloud albedo with respect to changes in droplet concentrations for fixed cloud water and droplet dispersion. In contrast, ship-track measurements show a much more modest amplification of the Twomey effect, suggesting that the GCMs are exaggerating the indirect aerosol effect. We have run large-eddy simulations with bin microphysics of marine stratocumulus from multiple field campaigns, and find that the large-eddy simulations are in much better agreement with the ship-track measurements. The inversion strength over N. Pacific stratocumulus (as measured during DYCOMS-II) is generally much stronger than over N. Atlantic stratocumulus (as measured during ASTEX), and we have found that the response of cloud water to increasing droplet concentration changes sign as the inversion strengthens. For the different environmental conditions, we will show the overall response of cloud albedo to droplet concentrations, and decompose the response into its contributing factors of changes in cloud water, droplet dispersion, and horizontal inhomogeneity.

Ackerman, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Dry Acid Deposition and Accumulation on the Surface of Mars and in the Atacama Desert, Chile

It has been discovered recently that soils from certain regions of the Chilean Atacama Desert have some characteristics that are similar to the surface materials tested by the Viking Landers. Navarro-Gonzalez et al. demonstrated that the quantity and diversity of heterotrophic bacteria increase as a function of local water availability in the Atacama, and that for some soil samples collected in the driest regions, no culturable bacteria could be isolated. Additionally, Navarro-Gonzalez et al. reported that pyrolysis-GCMS analysis of soils collected from these regions revealed extremely low levels of organic matter. Although the mechanism resulting in the low level of organics in these regions was not established by Navarro-Gonzalez, the condition of organic-depleted, near-sterile soil offers an interesting Earth analog of the martian surface material, as the Viking Gas Exchange (GEx) experiment and Labeled Release (LR) experiment were unable to demonstrate the presence of culturable bacteria, and the Viking pyrolysis- GCMS was unable to detect organic compounds.

Quinn, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Applications and Improvement of a Coupled, Global and Cloud-Resolving Modeling System

Recently Grabowski (2001) and Khairoutdinov and Randall (2001) have proposed the use of 2D CFWs as a "super parameterization" [or multi-scale modeling framework (MMF)] to represent cloud processes within atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). In the MMF, a fine-resolution 2D CRM takes the place of the single-column parameterization used in conventional GCMs. A prototype Goddard MMF based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) is now being developed. The prototype includes the fvGCM run at 2.50 x 20 horizontal resolution with 32 vertical layers from the surface to 1 mb and the 2D (x-z) GCE using 64 horizontal and 32 vertical grid points with 4 km horizontal resolution and a cyclic lateral boundary. The time step for the 2D GCE would be 15 seconds, and the fvGCM-GCE coupling frequency would be 30 minutes (i.e. the fvGCM physical time step). We have successfully developed an fvGCM-GCE coupler for this prototype. Because the vertical coordinate of the fvGCM (a terrain-following floating Lagrangian coordinate) is different from that of the GCE (a z coordinate), vertical interpolations between the two coordinates are needed in the coupler. In interpolating fields from the GCE to fvGCM, we use an existing fvGCM finite- volume piecewise parabolic mapping (PPM) algorithm, which conserves the mass, momentum, and total energy. A new finite-volume PPM algorithm, which conserves the mass, momentum and moist static energy in the z coordinate, is being developed for interpolating fields from the fvGCM to the GCE. In the meeting, we will discuss the major differences between the two MMFs (i.e., the CSU MMF and the Goddard MMF). We will also present performance and critical issues related to the MMFs. In addition, we will present multi-dimensional cloud datasets (i.e., a cloud data library) generated by the Goddard MMF that will be provided to the global modeling community to help improve the representation and performance of moist processes in climate models and to improve our understanding of cloud processes globally (the software tools needed to produce cloud statistics and to identify various types of clouds and cloud systems from both high-resolution satellite and model data will be also presented).

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA Satellite and field campaign cloud related data sets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. Also we have implemented a Land Information System (LIS that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models into the MMF. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) This modeling system has been applied and tested its performance for two different climate scenarios, El Nino (1998) and La Nina (1999). The coupled new modeling system produced more realistic propagation and intensity of tropical rainfall systems and intraseasonal oscillations, and diurnal variation of precipitation that are very difficult to forecast using even the state-of-the-art GCMs. In this talk I will present: (1) a brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (both Microphysical and land processes) and (2) The Goddard MMF and the Major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF) and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2008

Exploration of the Habitability of Mars with the SAM Suite Investigation on the 2009 Mars Science Laboratory

The 2009 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) with a substantially larger payload capability that any other Mars rover, to date, is designed to quantitatively assess a local region on Mars as a potential habitat for present or past life. Its goals are (1) to assess past or present biological potential of a target environment, (2) to characterize geology and geochemistry at the MSL landing site, and (3) to investigate planetary processes that influence habitability. The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) Suite, in its final stages of integration and test, enables a sensitive search for organic molecules and chemical and isotopic analysis of martian volatiles. MSL contact and remote surface and subsurface survey Instruments establish context for these measurements and facilitate sample identification and selection. The SAM instruments are a gas chromatograph (GC), a mass spectrometer (MS), and a tunable laser spectrometer (TLS). These together with supporting sample manipulation and gas processing devices are designed to analyze either the atmospheric composition or gases extracted from solid phase samples such as rocks and fines. For example, one of the core SAM experiment sequences heats a small powdered sample of a Mars rock or soil from ambient to -1300 K in a controlled manner while continuously monitoring evolved gases. This is followed by GCMS analysis of released organics. The general chemical survey is complemented by a specific search for molecular classes that may be relevant to life including atmospheric methane and its carbon isotope with the TLS and biomarkers with the GCMS.

Mahaffy, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

Mainly due to their global nature, satellite observations can provide a very useful basis for GCM validations. In particular, satellite sounders such as AIRS provide 3-D spatial information (most useful for GCMs), so the question arises: can we use AIRS datasets for climate variability assessments? We show that the recent (September 2002 February 2010) CERES-observed negative trend in OLR of approx.-0.1 W/sq m/yr averaged over the globe is found in the AIRS OLR data as well. Most importantly, even minute details (down to 1 x 1 degree GCM-scale resolution) of spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS-retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over this time period are essentially the same. The correspondence can be seen even in the very large spatial variations of these trends with local values ranging from -2.6 W/sq m/yr to +3.0 W/sq m/yr in the tropics, for example. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate, and indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of other AIRS derived products as well. These products show that global and regional anomalies and trends of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over the last 7+ years are strongly influenced by EI-Nino-La Nina cycles . We have created climate parameter anomaly datasets using AIRS retrievals which can be compared directly with coupled GCM climate variability assessments. Moreover, interrelationships of these anomalies and trends should also be similar between the observed and GCM-generated datasets, and, in cases of discrepancies, GCM parameterizations could be improved based on the relationships observed in the data. First, we assess spatial "trends" of variability of climatic parameter anomalies [since anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle are good proxies of climate variability] at the common 1x1 degree GCM grid-scale by creating spatial anomaly "trends" based on the first 7+ years of AIRS Version 5 Leve13 data. We suggest that modelers should compare these with their (coupled) GCM's performance covering the same period. We evaluate temporal variability and interrelations of climatic anomalies on global to regional e.g., deep Tropical Hovmoller diagrams, El-Nino-related variability scales, and show the effects of El-Nino-La Nina activity on tropical anomalies and trends of water vapor cloud cover and OLR. For GCMs to be trusted highly for long-term climate change predictions, they should be able to reproduce findings similar to these. In summary, the AIRS-based climate variability analyses provide high quality, informative and physically plausible interrelationships among OLR, temperature, humidity and cloud cover both on the spatial and temporal scales. GCM validations can use these results even directly, e. g., by creating 1x1 degree trendmaps for the same period in coupled climate simulations.

Molnar, Gyula I.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Multiscale Modeling System: Developments, Applications, and Critical Issues

The foremost challenge in parameterizing convective clouds and cloud systems in large-scale models are the many coupled dynamical and physical processes that interact over a wide range of scales, from microphysical scales to the synoptic and planetary scales. This makes the comprehension and representation of convective clouds and cloud systems one of the most complex scientific problems in Earth science. During the past decade, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud System Study (GCSS) has pioneered the use of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) for the evaluation of the cloud and radiation parameterizations in general circulation models (GCMs; e.g., GEWEX Cloud System Science Team 1993). These activities have uncovered many systematic biases in the radiation, cloud and convection parameterizations of GCMs and have led to the development of new schemes (e.g., Zhang 2002; Pincus et al, 2003; Zhang and Wu 2003; Wu et al. 2003; Liang and Wu 2005; Wu and Liang 2005, and others). Comparisons between SCMs and CRMs using the same large-scale forcing derived from field campaigns have demonstrated that CRMs are superior to SCMs in the prediction of temperature and moisture tendencies (e.g., Das et al. 1999; Randall et al 2003b; Xie et al. 2005).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Composition of Titan's Lower Atmosphere and Simple Surface Volatiles as Measured by the Cassini-Huygens Probe Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer Experiment

The Cassini-Huygens Probe Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer (GCMS) determined the composition of the Titan atmosphere from ~140km altitude to the surface. After landing, it returned composition data of gases evaporated from the surface. Height profiles of molecular nitrogen (N2), methane (CH4) and molecular hydrogen (H2) were determined. Traces were detected on the surface of evaporating methane, ethane (C2H6), acetylene (C2H2), cyanogen (C2N2) and carbon dioxide (CO2). The methane data showed evidence that methane precipitation occurred recently. The methane mole fraction was (1.48+/-0.09) x 10(exp -2) in the lower stratosphere (139.8 km to 75.5 km) and (5.65+/-0.18) x 10(exp -2) near the surface (6.7 km to the surface). The molecular hydrogen mole fraction was (1.01+/-0.16) x 10(exp -3) in the atmosphere and (9.90+/-0.17) x 10(exp -4) on the surface. Isotope ratios were 167.7+/-0.6 for N-14/N-15 in molecular nitrogen, 91.1+/-1.4 for C-12/C-13 in methane and (1.35+/-0.30) x 10(exp -4) for D/H in molecular hydrogen. The mole fractions of Ar-36 and radiogenic Ar-40 are (2.1+/-0.8) x 10(exp -7) and (3.39 +/-0.12) x 10(exp -5) respectively. Ne-22 has been tentatively identified at a mole fraction of (2.8+/-2.1) x 10(exp -7) Krypton and xenon were below the detection threshold of 1 x 10(exp -8) mole fraction. Science data were not retrieved from the gas chromatograph subsystem as the abundance of the organic trace gases in the atmosphere and on the ground did not reach the detection threshold. Results previously published from the GCMS experiment are superseded by this publication.

Niemann, H. B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Search for Chemical Biomarkers on Mars Using the Sample Analysis at Mars Instrument Suite on the Mars Science Laboratory

One key goal for the future exploration of Mars is the search for chemical biomarkers including complex organic compounds important in life on Earth. The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) will provide the most sensitive measurements of the organic composition of rocks and regolith samples ever carried out in situ on Mars. SAM consists of a gas chromatograph (GC), quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS), and tunable laser spectrometer to measure volatiles in the atmosphere and released from rock powders heated up to 1000 C. The measurement of organics in solid samples will be accomplished by three experiments: (1) pyrolysis QMS to identify alkane fragments and simple aromatic compounds; pyrolysis GCMS to separate and identify complex mixtures of larger hydrocarbons; and (3) chemical derivatization and GCMS extract less volatile compounds including amino and carboxylic acids that are not detectable by the other two experiments.

Glavin, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

FROM↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Continual Intercomparison of Radiation Codes: Results from Phase I

The computer codes that calculate the energy budget of solar and thermal radiation in Global Climate Models (GCMs), our most advanced tools for predicting climate change, have to be computationally efficient in order to not impose undue computational burden to climate simulations. By using approximations to gain execution speed, these codes sacrifice accuracy compared to more accurate, but also much slower, alternatives. International efforts to evaluate the approximate schemes have taken place in the past, but they have suffered from the drawback that the accurate standards were not validated themselves for performance. The manuscript summarizes the main results of the first phase of an effort called "Continual Intercomparison of Radiation Codes" (CIRC) where the cases chosen to evaluate the approximate models are based on observations and where we have ensured that the accurate models perform well when compared to solar and thermal radiation measurements. The effort is endorsed by international organizations such as the GEWEX Radiation Panel and the International Radiation Commission and has a dedicated website (i.e., http://circ.gsfc.nasa.gov) where interested scientists can freely download data and obtain more information about the effort's modus operandi and objectives. In a paper published in the March 2010 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society only a brief overview of CIRC was provided with some sample results. In this paper the analysis of submissions of 11 solar and 13 thermal infrared codes relative to accurate reference calculations obtained by so-called "line-by-line" radiation codes is much more detailed. We demonstrate that, while performance of the approximate codes continues to improve, significant issues still remain to be addressed for satisfactory performance within GCMs. We hope that by identifying and quantifying shortcomings, the paper will help establish performance standards to objectively assess radiation code quality, and will guide the development of future phases of CIRC

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗
NASA NTRS2012

Observational Analysis of Cloud and Precipitation in Midlatitude Cyclones: Northern Versus Southern Hemisphere Warm Fronts

Extratropical cyclones are responsible for most of the precipitation and wind damage in the midlatitudes during the cold season, but there are still uncertainties on how they will change in a warming climate. An ubiquitous problem amongst General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a lack of cloudiness over the southern oceans that may be in part caused by a lack of clouds in cyclones. We analyze CloudSat, CALIPSO and AMSR-E observations for 3 austral and boreal cold seasons and composite cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation at the warm fronts for northern and southern hemisphere oceanic cyclones. We find that cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation rate are similar in the early stage of the cyclone life cycle in both northern and southern hemispheres. As cyclones evolve and reach their mature stage, cloudiness and precipitation at the warm front increase in the northern hemisphere but decrease in the southern hemisphere. This is partly caused by lower amounts of precipitable water being available to southern hemisphere cyclones, and smaller increases in wind speed as the cyclones evolve. Southern hemisphere cloud occurrence at the warm front is found to be more sensitive to the amount of moisture in the warm sector than to wind speeds. This suggests that cloudiness in southern hemisphere storms may be more susceptible to changes in atmospheric water vapor content, and thus to changes in surface temperature than their northern hemisphere counterparts. These differences between northern and southern hemisphere cyclones are statistically robust, indicating A-Train-based analyses as useful tools for evaluation of GCMs in the next IPCC report.

Naud, Catherine M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Longwave Band-by-band Cloud Radiative Effect and its Application in GCM Evaluation

The cloud radiative effect (CRE) of each longwave (LW) absorption band of a GCM fs radiation code is uniquely valuable for GCM evaluation because (1) comparing band-by-band CRE avoids the compensating biases in the broadband CRE comparison and (2) the fractional contribution of each band to the LW broadband CRE (f(sub CRE)) is sensitive to cloud top height but largely insensitive to cloud fraction, presenting thus a diagnostic metric to separate the two macroscopic properties of clouds. Recent studies led by the first author have established methods to derive such band ]by ]band quantities from collocated AIRS and CERES observations. We present here a study that compares the observed band-by-band CRE over the tropical oceans with those simulated by three different atmospheric GCMs (GFDL AM2, NASA GEOS-5, and CCCma CanAM4) forced by observed SST. The models agree with observation on the annual ]mean LW broadband CRE over the tropical oceans within +/-1W/sq m. However, the differences among these three GCMs in some bands can be as large as or even larger than +/-1W/sq m. Observed seasonal cycles of f(sub CRE) in major bands are shown to be consistent with the seasonal cycle of cloud top pressure for both the amplitude and the phase. However, while the three simulated seasonal cycles of f(sub CRE) agree with observations on the phase, the amplitudes are underestimated. Simulated interannual anomalies from GFDL AM2 and CCCma CanAM4 are in phase with observed anomalies. The spatial distribution of f(sub CRE) highlights the discrepancies between models and observation over the low-cloud regions and the compensating biases from different bands.

Huang, Xianglei↗
NASA NTRS2012

Calibration and Sequence Development Status for the Sample Analysis at Mars Investigation on the Mars Science Laboratory

The measurement goals of the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite on the "Curiosity" Rover of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) include chemical and isotopic analysis of organic and inorganic volatiles for both atmospheric and solid samples [1,2]. SAM directly supports the ambitious goals of the MSL mission to provide a quantitative assessment of habitability and preservation in Gale crater by means of a range of chemical and geological measurements [3]. The SAM FM combined calibration and environmental testing took place primarily in 2010 with a limited set of tests implemented after integration into the rover in January 2011. The scope of SAM FM testing was limited both to preserve SAM consumables such as life time of its electromechanical elements and to minimize the level of terrestrial contamination in the SAM instrument. A more comprehensive calibration of a SAM-like suite of instruments will be implemented in 2012 with calibration runs planned for the SAM testbed. The SAM Testbed is nearly identical to the SAM FM and operates in a ambient pressure chamber. The SAM Instrument Suite: SAM's instruments are a Quadrupole Mass Spectrometer (QMS), a 6-column Gas Chromatograph (GC), and a 2-channel Tunable Laser Spectrometer (TLS). Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry is designed for identification of even trace organic compounds. The TLS [5] secures the C, H, and O isotopic composition in carbon dioxide, water, and methane. Sieved materials are delivered from the MSL sample acquisition and processing system to one of68 cups of the Sample Manipulation System (SMS). 59 of these cups are fabricated from inert quartz. After sample delivery, a cup is inserted into one of 2 ovens for evolved gas analysis (EGA ambient to >9500C) by the QMS and TLS. A portion of the gas released can be trapped and subsequently analyzed by GCMS. Nine sealed cups contain liquid solvents and chemical derivatization or thermochemolysis agents to extract and transform polar molecules such as amino acids, nucleobases, and carboxylic acids into compounds that are sufficiently volatile to transmit through the GC columns. The remaining 6 cups contain calibrants. SAM FM Calibration Overview: The SAM FM calibration in the Mars chamber employed a variety of pure gases, gas mixtures, and solid materials. Isotope calibration runs for the TLS utilized 13C enriched C02 standards and 0 enriched CH4. A variety of fluorocarbon compounds that spanned the entire mass range of the QMS as well as C3-C6 hydrocarbons were utilized for calibration of the GCMS. Solid samples consisting of a mixture of calcite, melanterite, and inert silica glass either doped or not with fluorocarbons were introduced into the SAM FM cups through the SAM inlet funnel/tube system.

Mahaffy, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of Organic Molecules Extracted from Mars Analogues and Influence of Their Mineralogy Using N-Methyl-N-(tert-butyldimethylsilyl)Trifluoroacetamide Derivatization Coupled with Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry in Preparation for the Sample Analysis at Mars Derivatization Experiment on the Mars Science Laboratory Mission

The search for complex organic molecules on Mars, including important biomolecules such as amino acids and carboxylic acids will require a chemical extraction and derivatization step to transform these organic compounds into species that are sufficiently volatile to be detected by gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS). We have developed, a one-pot extraction and chemical derivatization protocol using N-methyl-N-(tert-butyldimethylsilyl)trifluoroacetamide (MTBSTFA) and dimethylformamide (DMF) for the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) experiment on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The temperature and duration the derivatization reaction, pre-concentration of chemical derivatives, and gas chromatographic separation parameters have been optimized under SAM instrument design constraints. MTBSTFA/DMF extraction and derivatization at 300 C for several minutes of a variety of terrestrial Mars analogue materials facilitated the detection of amino acids and carboxylic acids in a surface soil sample collected from the Atacama Desert and a carbonate-rich stromatolite sample from Svalbard. However, the rapid reaction of MTBSTFA with water in several analogue materials that contained high abundances of hydrated minerals and the possible deactivation of derivatized compounds by iron oxides, as detected by XRD/XRF using the CheMin field unit Terra, proved to be highly problematic for the direct extraction of organics using MTBSTFA, The combination of pyrolysis and two different chemical derivatization methods employed by SAM should enable a wide range of organic compounds to be detected by GCMS if present on Mars,

Stalport, F.↗
NASA NTRS2013

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Crosson, William L↗
NASA NTRS2013

Characteristics of Mesoscale Organization in WRF Simulations of Convection during TWP-ICE

Compared to satellite-derived heating profiles, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) convective heating is too deep and its stratiform upper-level heating is too weak. This deficiency highlights the need for GCMs to parameterize the mesoscale organization of convection. Cloud-resolving model simulations of convection near Darwin, Australia, in weak wind shear environments of different humidities are used to characterize mesoscale organization processes and to provide parameterization guidance. Downdraft cold pools appear to stimulate further deep convection both through their effect on eddy size and vertical velocity. Anomalously humid air surrounds updrafts, reducing the efficacy of entrainment. Recovery of cold pool properties to ambient conditions over 5-6 h proceeds differently over land and ocean. Over ocean increased surface fluxes restore the cold pool to prestorm conditions. Over land surface fluxes are suppressed in the cold pool region; temperature decreases and humidity increases, and both then remain nearly constant, while the undisturbed environment cools diurnally. The upper-troposphere stratiform rain region area lags convection by 5-6 h under humid active monsoon conditions but by only 1-2 h during drier break periods, suggesting that mesoscale organization is more readily sustained in a humid environment. Stratiform region hydrometeor mixing ratio lags convection by 0-2 h, suggesting that it is strongly influenced by detrainment from convective updrafts. Small stratiform region temperature anomalies suggest that a mesoscale updraft parameterization initialized with properties of buoyant detrained air and evolving to a balance between diabatic heating and adiabatic cooling might be a plausible approach for GCMs.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗