Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “GLOBAL ASPECTS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

{sup 99}Mo Production at KIPT Neutron Source Facility

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology (KIPT) have cooperated on the construction of the Neutron Source Facility (NSF) at KIPT, Kharkov (Ukraine). The NSF facility consists of an electron accelerator driven system (ADS) generating 300 kW of thermal power for multiple applications, including medical isotope production. ANL performed extensive analyses including medical isotopes production, reactivity monitoring, operations and control, refueling, cold neutron source design, target design,and radiation shielding. The present study focuses on the use of the KIPT NSF for medical isotope production. Medical isotopes are radioactive isotopes with short half-lives used in diagnostic and therapeutic medical procedures. For example, brain cancer is difficult to treat by ordinary surgery and only brachytherapy with {sup 131}Cs, which has 9.7 days half-life, has shown effective results on the patients. {sup 99m}Tc is the most common medical isotope used in medical diagnoses because the wavelength of its gamma radiation (8.8 pm) is about the same as the conventional X-ray diagnostic devices. {sup 99m}Tc has 6 hours half-life, therefore it cannot be stored because it decays into {sup 99}Tc. The parent of {sup 99m}Tc is {sup 99}Mo, which has 66 hours half-life. Consequently, the delivery of {sup 99m}Tc occurs through shipping {sup 99}Mo samples to the medical facilities. The Neutron Source Facility of KIPT is the first ADS in the world operating at non-zero power and allows producing several isotopes for medical applications. The total power of the facility is about 300 kW, including ∼200 kW from fission reactions. The construction of the NSF has been already completed and operations will start during year 2016. After 20 irradiation days, {sup 82}Br, {sup 64}Cu, {sup 165}Dy, {sup 166}Ho, {sup 192}Ir, {sup 194}Ir, {sup 186}Re, {sup 188}Re and {sup 153}Sm have specific activities, larger than 100 MBq/mg without taking into account the self-shielding effect and therefore they are good candidates for production. The self-shielding effect plays an important role for all nuclide parents that have a large microscopic capture cross section. This effect reduces the reaction rate and therefore the specific activity. For instance, the analyses of molybdenum trioxide (MoO{sub 3}) irradiation samples have shown that the self-shielding effect may reduce the specific activity by a factor 1.4. The metallic form of natural molybdenum produces a higher specific activity, relative to the trioxide form. Analyses on the 6-day Ci {sup 99}Mo activity have shown that is possible to perform between 40 to 310 {sup 99m}Tc medical procedures per MoO{sub 3} irradiation week. The number of medical procedures depends on the diagnosed organ and the weight of the patient. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Feasibility Studies on a Hexagonal-Lattice Core for a World-Class Cold Neutron Source

Cold neutrons have kinetic energies less than 5 meV and wavelengths greater than 4 Α. They can be transported over tens of meters through super-reflecting neutron guides with minimal losses. Cold neutrons are used to investigate the structure of larger molecular systems such as biological materials, polymers and aggregates, due to their preferential interaction with light elements and general ignorance towards heavy ones. Intense beams of cold neutrons are obtained from slowing down a source of thermal energy neutrons - which may be from either a research reactor or spallation neutron source - through some cryogenic moderator such as liquid hydrogen or deuterium. The present reactor at the NIST Center for Neutron Research (NCNR) - NBSR - is such a cold neutron source (CNS) facility which provides cold neutron beams for over 2,000 scientists performing various experiments annually. Feasibility studies on a replacement reactor for the NBSR are underway at NCNR with the primary purpose of optimized cold neutron production. Low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel is required for the new reactor to conform to nuclear non-proliferation agreements. The low thermal power rate of 20 MW is taken as a priority with a fuel cycle length designated as 30 days. A horizontal split compact core with a large D{sub 2}O reflector tank is currently proposed and studied, with the expectation of achieving much better cold neutron performance than the present NIST reactor (NBSR). A preliminary core design has been completed using MCNP6 modeling and simulation. The physics performance characteristics of the proposed new core indicate that the new design is competitive with the most notable existing advanced cold neutron sources. In previous studies, only rectangular shaped fuel elements were considered because they have similar external dimensions as the NBSR fuel elements. However, from a compact core standpoint, a square lattice is not the most effective geometry for a tight configuration. Moreover, the previous studies also showed that the square lattice of the fuel elements left little room to accommodate vertical insertion blade-type control elements. As a result, all control blades had to reside in the D{sub 2}O reflector, which made the design cumbersome (in that case the control blades must penetrate the reflector tank) and neutronically uneconomical. In this summary, a preliminary feasibility study on a hexagonal core lattice is performed to render an alternative geometry for the new reactor (HEX core) to provide sufficient space for the control elements. The identical LEU fuel (U{sub 3}Si{sub 2}/Al) with U-235 enrichment 19.75% is used in the new design. The maximum thermal power and fuel management scheme remain the same as the previous investigations (three 30-day cycled batches for each batch of three fuel elements). The horizontal split compact core concept is also applied in the hexagonal lattice core design, with the objective of creating maximum thermal flux traps between the split core halves. A detailed description of the model for the hexagonal lattice core is presented in the following section. The HEX core design achieves a number of successes over the previous split-core design. Given that much of the motivation of this work was based on implementation of control blades into a concept which lacked them, it is notable that neutron economy was well-preserved in the process of achieving conservatively effective reactivity control; start-up k{sub eff} was in fact increased by 0.23% and peak thermal flux increased by ∼25%. A useful metric in determining the efficacy of resources towards creating an environment for the production of cold neutrons - dubbed the 'quality factor' (QF) - is the ratio of peak thermal neutron flux in a system to the total thermal power produced. Because HEX core's objectives are very focused in comparison to existing research reactors, it is fitting to pursue a design which out-performs all others in terms of some specific performance metric, namely this QF term. While HFIR remains the greatest cold neutron source in the world, it does so through use of HEU fuel (which will be replaced with LEU in the near future), and suffers a greater level of fast neutron contamination that is expected from the HEX design. The new core design achieves these successes due to the hexagonal lattice fuel arrangement, a 13.5% reduction in cladding mass, and a 13.1% reduction in fuel element volume. In spite of a 5.5% reduction in fuel mass, no compromises in reactor performance were noted. Provided the favorable characteristics shown of the control blade design, refueling intervals longer than the prescribed 30 days may be considered. It can be speculated that with these quantitative benefits, the overall capital and continuous costs of the HEX core design will be less than the previously proposed split-core concept.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Photo-Transmutation of {sup 100}Mo to {sup 99m}Tc with Laser-Compton Scattering Gamma-Ray

Technetium-99m ({sup 99m}Tc) is an important medical radioisotope which is largely used in hospitals for diagnosis of cancer. It is produced in the form of {sup 99}Mo which decays to {sup 99m}Tc with a half-life of 66 hours. More than 90% of the world's demand of {sup 99}Mo are sourced from five nuclear reactors. Two of these reactors have already been closed and the rest are more than 45 years old. Relatively short half-life of the parent {sup 99}Mo requires continuous re-supply to meet the medical industry's requirement. Therefore there is an urgent need to produce the {sup 99}Mo and {sup 99m}Tc isotopes by alternative ways. This paper presents one such alternative via the use of laser-Compton scattering (LCS) gamma beam. In this paper, production rate (reaction rate) of {sup 99}Mo using the photonuclear (γ, n) reaction is evaluated. It is expected that the LCS technique can be used to generate the gamma ray required for the aforementioned photonuclear reaction. Rigorous optimization of the LCS spectrum is also performed to maximize production of the {sup 99}Mo. The optimal maximum energy of the LCS photon is about 17 MeV for the production of {sup 99}Mo. The analysis shows that production of {sup 99}Mo using LCS gamma beam offers a promising alternative for the production of {sup 99m}Tc. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Design of a Commercial Scale Accelerator Driven Subcritical Aqueous Assembly

SHINE Medical Technologies is working towards producing a reliable, domestic supply of medical isotopes, including molybdenum-99 (Mo-99), xenon-133, and iodine 131, without using highly enriched uranium. Approximately 88% of Mo-99 decays to technetium-99m, which is the most widely used medical isotope in the world, accounting for approximately 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures. A novel aqueous, subcritical nuclear assembly has been designed by SHINE Medical Technologies. The assembly can produce medical radioisotopes in significant quantities for U.S. and foreign needs. The assembly produces isotopes without using a reactor, instead using a fusion-based neutron source coupled to a fission-based aqueous assembly. The subcritical nature of the aqueous assembly has safety and licensing benefits, including the elimination of the reactor control system and elimination of high level waste. SHINE plans to construct eight subcritical assemblies with a plant capacity of greater than 3000 6-day Curies, which is more than one-quarter of the world's Mo-99 requirements. From a nuclear design standpoint, the aqueous subcritical assembly needs to be able to generate sufficient fission power to meet the production capacity requirements while remaining subcritical at all times with an acceptable margin. To address these conflicting design goals, a simple nuclear design and reactivity control philosophy has been developed that allows for high power operation with a high degree of safety. A fusion-driven subcritical fission assembly has been designed by SHINE Medical Technologies to provide a reliable, domestic supply of medical isotopes. Nuclear models have been created and show that the assembly can be started up, operated, and shutdown in a safe manner without active reactivity control systems. A unique reactivity control strategy allows SHINE to operate the aqueous subcritical assembly at much higher power levels than would otherwise be practical, while still retaining the benefits of subcritical operation and avoiding the need for complex subcritical measurement techniques. Based on the current design, the subcritical target is capable of generating significant fission power (on the order of 100 kW) when being driven by a simple, low-cost deuterium-tritium accelerator, enabling the SHINE facility to supply over one-fourth of the worldwide demand of Mo- 99. SHINE has recently been issued a construction permit by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build the commercial facility in Janesville, WI, with eight subcritical assemblies and the associated production equipment. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Panel Session 36: Panel: Young Professionals in Nuclear Science and Engineering an International Perspective

This panel focuses on the young professional views from around the world on radioactive waste management. An informal panel will enable these future leaders of our industry to share ideas and experiences and develop contacts within peer groups on a genuine international level. The informal and interactive panel format will stimulate valuable discussion among the participants and the audience. The panel will be led by young professionals who will actively encourage participation from all those attending. Mentoring will be discussed. This panel aims to encourage fresh thinking and provide an opportunity for an open and frank discussion of issues. Presentations proposed include: 1 - International Youth Nuclear Congress (Alexander Borovskis, AusYGN (Australia)); 2 - AECOM Early Career Professionals Technology Exchange (Natalie Young, Washington River Protection Solutions (USA)); 3 - Young Professionals in Nuclear Science and Engineering - An International Perspective (Shona Thompson, Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (Canada))

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Panel Session 62: Progress on Deep Repository Programs Around the World

This panel session focused on the progress of deep repository programs, worldwide. While efforts on a deep geological repository for SNF/UNF and HLW in the USA were terminated in 2010, several other repository programs continue to make considerable progress and deserve to be recognized. Panelists were invited from national, multi-national, and international repository programs and organizations to report upon the status and future as well as the perceived reasons underlying the success and the failure of components of their respective repository program. This panel provided a forum for interested parties to present, exchange, and take advantage of, as appropriate, repository progress, challenges, concepts/designs and other lessons learned around the world, including site characterization, site selection, research and development, licensing, construction, operation, and public acceptance and participation. Presentations proposed include: 1 - Cigeo (French Deep Geological Repository Project) update 2018 (Daniel Delort, Andra (France)); 2 - Progress on Deep Geological Repository Programs Around the World (Bruce McKirdy, Radioactive Waste Management (United Kingdom)); 3 - Geological disposal facility in Belgium (Didier Leonard, ONDRAF/NIRAS (Belgium))

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Panel Session 89: Progress on Deep Repository Around the World

This panel focused on the progress of deep repository programs, worldwide. While efforts on a deep geological repository for SNF/UNF and HLW in the USA were terminated in 2010, several other repository programs continue to make considerable progress 10 and deserve to be recognized. Panelists from national, multi-national, and international repository programs and organizations reported on the status and future plans as well as the perceived reasons underlying the success and the failure of components of their respective repository program. This session provided a forum for interested parties to present, exchange, and take advantage of, as appropriate, repository progress, challenges, concepts/designs and other lessons learned around the world, including site characterization, site selection, research and development, licensing, construction, operation, and public acceptance and participation. Panelists with presentations: Switzerland's Geological Repository Program for Radioactive Waste (Tim Vietor); Update on NWMO's Progress in Implementing Canada's Plan (Sarah Hirschorn); Cigeo Project Progress and Next Milestones (Corinne Bauer)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Navigation and the Mars global surveyor mission

Navigation and trajectory planning aspects for the Mars global surveyor (MGS) mission, are discussed. In the first 205 days of the mission since launch on 7 November July 1996, two trajectory maneuvers were successfully completed. The third maneuver was cancelled due to the accuracy of the targeting of the previous maneuvers. The final trajectory correction maneuver will occur on arrival in order to adjust the arrival conditions for the Mars orbit insertion maneuver. The planned capture orbit is highly elliptical with a 45 hour orbital period, a 300 km periapsis altitude and a descending node. Two-way coherent Doppler and time delay measurements are acquired in the X-band by the Deep Space network and used to navigate the spacecraft. After capture, the orbit will be circularized by aerobraking and propulsive maneuvers. The three-phase aerobraking maneuver is described. During the 687 earth-day observation period, navigation will maintain a 2:00 pm descending node, sun-synchronous low altitude, short periodic orbit. Ground track coverage will remain almost uniform in order to maximize data acquisition.

Esposito, P.↗

Some aspects of understanding changes in the global carbon cycle

The collective character of carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and other pools is partially revealed by comparing the record of CO2 concentration beginning in 1958 with estimates of the releases from fossil fuels during this period. In analyzing the secular increase in CO2 concentration induced by fossil fuel use, the atmosphere is generally treated as a single well-mixed reservoir; however, to study finer structure in the CO2 records, the influence of atmospheric circulation must be more carefully considered. The rate of carbon uptake by the oceans, the primary sink for fossil fuel CO2, is assessed more reliably than influences on the atmosphere due to interactions with other pools. Models of the global carbon cycle are being substantially refined while data that reflect the response of the cycle to fossil fuel use and other perturbations are being extended.

Emanuel, W. R.↗

The global sulfur cycle

The results of the planetary biology microbial ecology's 1984 Summer Research Program, which examined various aspects of the global sulfur cycle are summarized. Ways in which sulfur flows through the many living and chemical species that inhabit the surface of the Earth were investigated. Major topics studied include: (1) sulfur cycling and metabolism of phototropic and filamentous sulfur bacteria; (2) sulfur reduction in sediments of marine and evaporite environments; (3) recent cyanobacterial mats; (4) microanalysis of community metabolism in proximity to the photic zone in potential stromatolites; and (5) formation and activity of microbial biofilms on metal sulfides and other mineral surfaces. Relationships between the global sulfur cycle and the understanding of the early evolution of the Earth and biosphere and current processes that affect global habitability are stressed.

Sagan, D.↗

Global gyrokinetic study of shaping effects on electromagnetic modes at NSTX aspect ratio with ad hoc parallel magnetic perturbation effects

Plasma shaping may have a stronger effect on global turbulence in tight-aspect-ratio tokamaks than in conventional-aspect-ratio tokamaks due to the higher toroidicity and more acute poloidal asymmetry in the magnetic field. In addition, previous local gyrokinetic studies have shown that it is necessary to include parallel magnetic field perturbations in order to accurately compute growth rates of electromagnetic modes in tight-aspect-ratio tokamaks. In this work, the effects of elongation and triangularity on global, ion-scale, linear electromagnetic modes are studied at National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) aspect ratio and high plasma β using the global gyrokinetic particle-in-cell code XGC. The effects of compressional magnetic perturbations are approximated via a well-known modification to the particle drifts that was developed for flux-tube simulations [Joiner et al., Phys. Plasmas 17, 072104 (2010)], without proof of its validity in a global simulation, with the gyrokinetic codes GENE and GEM being used for local verification and global cross-verification. Magnetic equilibria are re-constructed for each distinct plasma profile that is used. Coulomb collision effects are not considered. Within the limitations imposed by the present study, it is found that linear growth rates of electromagnetic modes (collisionless microtearing modes and kinetic ballooning modes) are significantly reduced in a high-elongation and high-triangularity NSTX-like geometry compared to a circular NSTX-like geometry. For example, growth rates of kinetic ballooning modes at high- β are reduced to the level of that of collisionless trapped electron modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Global reverse supply chain design for solid waste recycling under uncertainties and carbon emission constraint

Highlights: • We propose a robust model for global reverse supply chain design. • The uncertain waste collection rate, currency exchange rate, and the maritime cost are incorporated. • The total emission and cost are affected by both the uncertainties and the global carbon cap. • The waste products flows between countries vary with the levels of uncertainties and the global carbon cap. • There is an opportunity to reduce the maritime emission. - Abstract: The emergence of concerns over environmental protection, resource conservation as well as the development of logistics operations and manufacturing technology has led several countries to implement formal collection and recycling systems of solid waste. Such recycling system has the benefits of reducing environmental pollution, boosting the economy by creating new jobs, and generating income from trading the recyclable materials. This leads to the formation of a global reverse supply chain (GRSC) of solid waste. In this paper, we investigate the design of such a GRSC with a special emphasis on three aspects; (1) uncertainty of waste collection levels, (2) associated carbon emissions, and (3) challenges posed by the supply chain’s global aspect, particularly the maritime transportation costs and currency exchange rates. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to integrate the three above-mentioned important aspects in the design of a GRSC. We have used mixed integer-linear programming method along with robust optimization to develop the model which is validated using a sample case study of e-waste management. Our results show that using a robust model by taking the complex interactions characterizing global reverse supply chain networks into account, we can create a better GRSC. The effect of uncertainties and carbon constraints on decisions to reduce costs and emissions are also shown.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Interaction of Global Biochemical Cycles

The global biosphere in an exceedingly complex system. To gain an understanding of its structure and dynamic features, it is necessary not only to increase the knowledge about the detailed processes but also to develop models of how global interactions take place. Attempts to analyze the detailed physical, chemical and biological processes in this context need to be guided by an advancement of understanding of the latter. It is necessary to develop a strategy of data gathering that severs both these purposes simultaneously. The following papers deal with critical aspects in the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur in details as well as the cycle of water and the flow of energy in the Earth's environment. The objective is to set partly the foundation for the development of mathematical models that allow exploration of the coupled dynamics of the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, as well as energy and water flux.

Moore, B., III↗

Lake Bacterial Assemblage Composition Is Sensitive to Biological Disturbance Caused by an Invasive Filter Feeder

One approach to improve forecasts of how global change will affect ecosystem processes is to better understand how anthropogenic disturbances alter bacterial assemblages that drive biogeochemical cycles. Species invasions are important contributors to global change, but their impacts on bacterial community ecology are rarely investigated. Here, we studied direct impacts of invasive dreissenid mussels (IDMs), one of many invasive filter feeders, on freshwater lake bacterioplankton. We demonstrated that direct effects of IDMs reduced bacterial abundance and altered assemblage composition by preferentially removing larger and particle-associated bacteria. While this increased the relative abundances of many free-living bacterial taxa, some were susceptible to filter feeding, in line with efficient removal of phytoplankton cells of <2 μm. This selective removal of particle-associated and larger bacteria by IDMs altered inferred bacterial functional group representation, defined by carbon and energy source utilization. Specifically, we inferred an increased relative abundance of chemoorganoheterotrophs predicted to be capable of rhodopsin-dependent energy generation. In contrast to the few previous studies that have focused on the longer-term combined direct and indirect effects of IDMs on bacterioplankton, our study showed that IDMs act directly as a biological disturbance to which freshwater bacterial assemblages are sensitive. The negative impacts on particle-associated bacteria, which have been shown to be more active than free-living bacteria, and the inferred shifts in functional group representation raise the possibility that IDMs may directly alter bacterially mediated ecosystem functions.Freshwater bacteria play fundamental roles in global elemental cycling and are an intrinsic part of local food webs. Human activities are altering freshwater environments, and much has been learned regarding the sensitivity of bacterial assemblages to a variety of these disturbances. Yet, relatively few studies have focused on how species invasion, which is one of the most important aspects of anthropogenic global change, affects freshwater bacterial assemblages. This study focuses on the impact of invasive dreissenid mussels (IDMs), a globally distributed group of invasive species with large impacts on freshwater phyto- and zooplankton assemblages. Here, we show that IDMs have direct effects on lake bacterioplankton abundance, taxonomic composition, and inferred bacterial functional group representation.

16S rRNA gene↗

Impact of Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors In the GMAO GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation System

The WMO and THORPEX co-sponsored fifth Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on Numerical Weather Prediction will be organized by the Expert Team on the Evolution of the Global Observing System in Sedona, Arizona, United States, from 22 to 25 May 2012. Participants are expected to come from all the major NWP centres which are active in the area of impact studies. The workshop will be conducted in English. As for the first four workshops it is planned to produce a workshop report to be published as a WMO Technical Report that will include the papers submitted by the participants. The previous four workshops in this series took place in Geneva {April 1997), Toulouse (March 2000), Alpbach (March 2004) and Geneva (May 2008). Results from Observing System Experiments (OSEs), both with global and regional aspects were presented and conclusions were drawn concerning the contributions of the various components of the observing system to the large scale forecast skill at short and medium range (Workshop Proceedings were published as WMO World Weather Watch Technical Reports TD No. 868, 1034, 1228 and 1450). Since then, some significant changes and developments have affected the global observing system and more efforts have been devoted to meso-scale observing and assimilation systems. There has also been a trend toward using techniques other than OSEs to document data impact, such as adjoint-based sensitivity to observations or ensemble-based sensitivity. Field experiments have been carried out, in particular through the THORPEX project, and the use of targeted data has been assessed.

Gelaro, Ronald↗

Thorium Enrichment within the Procellarum KREEP Terrane: The Record in Surface Deposits and Significance for Thermal Evolution

The nearside-farside structural and compositional asymmetry of the Moon was recognized during the early days of Apollo and the suggestion was made that the migration of mantle melts to the nearside would have been favored by early Earth-Moon orbital dynamics and nonuniform planetesimal bombardment. Recent global geochemical mapping by Lunar Prospector has provided additional data, particularly in the Th distribution, that strongly supports the notion of global, preferential melt migration, which led in part to the development of the Procellarum KREEP Terrane (PKT) [2-5]. The surface distribution of Th was then reshaped by basin-forming impacts into the PKT, especially the Imbrium impact, which was the last and largest to strike in that region. The Imbrium event probably excavated material from a partially molten zone deep in the crust and delivered Th-rich ejecta Moon-wide. A fundamentally important but poorly understood aspect of the global Th distribution is the concentration of Th in the subsurface rocks of the PKT crustal section. For example, depending on what assumptions are made, the PKT crustal section, which is about 12% of the crust and only about 1.2% of the whole Moon, may contain as much as 40% of the Moon's entire Th budget. Such a distribution of Th and related heat-producing elements would have had a profound effect on melting, mixing, and the thermal evolution of the PKT and the underlying mantle. In this abstract, we examine the compositions of terra formations within the PKT and relate them to some of the Th-bearing rock types known from the Apollo samples. It appears that the existence of the PKT may be a unifying concept for a number of petrologic and geochemical observations. From the initial Lunar Prospector gamma-ray spectrometer data(-about 5 deg. resolution) and from the preliminary low-orbit data, there appears to be a number of relatively hotter "spots" within the PKT in terms of Th concentration. Some of the hotter spots correspond to intermediate-sized craters that penetrated volcanic flows and excavated Th-rich, submare material, such as Aristarchus, Aristillus, and Kepler. Other spots, however, correspond to surficial formations that constitute mainly rough topography associated with Imbrium ejecta or circum-Imbrium ring mountains and do not necessarily imply the presence of exposed KREEP basalts. The Fra Mauro Formation south of Copernicus toward the Apollo 14 site and regions of the Alpes Formation southwest of Copernicus in the vicinity of Reinhold lie within the most prominent hotspot; here them concentration is consistent with that found in the Apollo 14 soils (about 12-13 ppm) when the proportions of Fra Mauro Formation and mare basalt are considered. The area between Copernicus and Kepler and northwest of Copernicus in terra extending to the Carpathians is similarly enriched in Th. The Apennines from Eratosthenes toward the Apollo 15 site contain elevated Th concentrations, as does the northwestern quadrant of circum-Imbrium terra, especially between (but not including) La Condamine and Plato, and in the region northwest of the Jura mountains extending southward past Mairan to the Gruithuisen-Domes region. Within the main topographic rim of Imbrium, the Apennine Bench formation south of Archimedes appears to have relatively elevated Th concentration. Comparing the map of Th distribution to a digital-elevation map derived from Clementine altimetry, it appears that most of the areas richest in Th occur where the surface is elevated relative to the majority of PKT volcanic plains. Not all rough topography within the PKT has such elevated Th, however. Based on an analysis of the 5 deg. data, and using the calibration of, the mean Th concentrations for mainly volcanic-resurfaced terrain and rugged terrain are similar (about 5.5 ppm). This occurs in part because craters that penetrated mare basalt excavated Th-rich material. Even so, there appear to be extensive areas of volcanic resurfacing that have no obvious extrinsic source of Th-rich material, suggesting that the basalts, themselves, may contain as much as 5-6 ppm Th. High-FeO concentrations (18 to >20 wt%) indicate that these are not KREEP basalts but mare basalts. If so, this is surprising because most of the Apollo-sampled mare basalts have very low-Th (typically <2 ppm). A variety of Th-rich materials occur in the sample collection, particularly in the samples from the Apollo 12,14, and 15 sites. The most abundant Th-rich rock types are the mafic impact-melt breccias, which although found at all sites, are most abundant at Apollo 14, where they dominate the rock samples and make up some 40% of the rock particles in the soil. These have Th concentrations ranging up to about 30 ppm and averaging about 18 ppm. The Apollo 14 soils contain about 13 ppm Th, reflecting the high abundance of this melt-breccia component. At the nearby Apollo 12 site, the rocks consist mainly of mare basalts, and these have low-Th concentrations, mostly <1 ppm. Among the nonmare rocks, however, a few such as complex breccia 12013 contain a variety of evolved lithologies and represent potential sources of Th-rich components ranging from 17 to 50 ppm. A single fragment of KREEP basalt from the Apollo 12 soil contains about 50 ppm Th. Despite the identification of highly Th-enriched lithologic components at the Apollo 12 site, the soils there vary linearly in composition so as to extrapolate to a moderate Th KREEP-basalt component or a composition like that of the Fra Mauro formation as reflected by Apollo 14 soil (14 ppm Th at 10 wt% FeO). The nearby Lansberg Crater (39-km diameter) is a likely candidate to have delivered submare material such as buried Fra Mauro or Alpes material to the Apollo 12 site. Additional information contained in the original.

Jolliff, B. L.↗

Granger causal inference for climate change attribution

Abstract Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) is concerned with determining the extent to which anthropogenic activities have influenced specific aspects of the global climate system. D&A fits within the broader field of causal inference, the collection of statistical methods that identify cause and effect relationships. There are a wide variety of methods for making attribution statements, each of which require different types of input data and focus on different types of weather and climate events and each of which are conditional to varying extents. Some methods are based on Pearl causality (direct experimental interference) while others leverage Granger (predictive) causality, and the causal framing provides important context for how the resulting attribution conclusion should be interpreted. However, while Granger-causal attribution analyses have become more common, there is no clear statement of their strengths and weaknesses relative to Pearl-causal attribution and no clear consensus on where and when Granger-causal perspectives are appropriate. In this prospective paper, we provide a formal definition for Granger-based approaches to trend and event attribution and a clear comparison with more traditional methods for assessing the human influence on extreme weather and climate events. Broadly speaking, Granger-causal attribution statements can be constructed quickly from observations and do not require computationally-intesive dynamical experiments. These analyses also enable rapid attribution, which is useful in the aftermath of a severe weather event, and provide multiple lines of evidence for anthropogenic climate change when paired with Pearl-causal attribution. Confidence in attribution statements is increased when different methodologies arrive at similar conclusions. Moving forward, we encourage the D&A community to embrace hybrid approaches to climate change attribution that leverage the strengths of both Granger and Pearl causality.

Risser, Mark D. (ORCID:0000000319561783)↗

MHD modelling of the earth's magnetosphere

Attention is given to the shock capturing technique, nonuniform grid system, and multiple time scale problem aspects of a global MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere that uses numerical methods. Because of the fast Alfven waves near the earth, the model is more difficult to solve than problems of hydrodynamic flow past bodies. The Rusanov (1962) scheme, which is a variant of the Lax (1954) method that maintains viscosity at a minimum value except where a large one is required, is used. The magnetosphere shape obtained by these means is noted.

Wu, C. C.↗