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DOE OSTI2026

Generative AI in Supply Chain Management: Applications, Challenges, and Future Directions

Supply chain management (SCM) is undergoing rapid transformation due to increasing global complexity, demand volatility, and operational disruptions. Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) has emerged as a powerful paradigm capable of synthesizing data, simulating operational scenarios, and enabling adaptive decision-making across supply chain networks. This paper presents a survey of GenAI’s role in SCM, focusing on its applications in predictive analytics, autonomous logistics, and fraud detection. Unlike traditional AI systems that rely primarily on predictive analytics, GenAI models, including large language models, generative adversarial networks, and diffusion-based architectures, enable the creation of synthetic supply chain scenarios and autonomous optimization strategies. This survey provides (1) a taxonomy of GenAI techniques for supply chain applications, (2) a comparative analysis of generative AI approaches with traditional machine learning, reinforcement learning, and blockchain-based methods, and (3) a discussion of key challenges such as data privacy, interpretability, and integration with legacy enterprise systems. Furthermore, we outline open research problems and propose directions for future research toward autonomous, resilient, and sustainable AI-driven supply chains.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning framework for predicting uranium enrichments from M400 CZT gamma spectra

A machine learning framework was developed for predicting uranium enrichments from M400 CZT gamma spectra. This framework leverages the availability of a large amount of measured M400 gamma spectra and uses a recently updated version of Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) for gamma spectrum analysis and generation. It also leverages the existing machine learning modules in Python for gamma spectrum data processing, curation, model training, benchmarking, and optimization of the deep machine learning models. The framework is used to develop a deep learning model to analyze gamma spectra from a set of U 3 O 8 samples with enrichments ranging from 0.31 to 93.17% and UF 6 cylinders with enrichments ranging from 0.2 to 4.95%, and the model performance is tested using a set of measured spectra and the respective declared enrichment values. Results show that the model can correctly classify 99.35% of the U 3 O 8 sample enrichments, and can predict the samples’ enrichments within an average absolute error of 0.099% (in percentage points of enrichment). For the UF 6 cylinders, the average absolute error was approximately 0.03%, with an accuracy of 98% in classifying discrete enrichment values of UF 6 samples. Finally, the results also show that the model has performed significantly better in terms of predicting enrichments in UF 6 cylinders based on measured gamma spectra than the GEM code, with a standard deviation (of the relative errors) of 2.23% (compared with the 11.51% value for the GEM code) based on results from a set of test data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning in the Context of Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

The integration of machine learning (ML) with Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) has revolutionized the analytical capabilities of LIBS. The combi-nation of both methods enables more accurate and efficient data analysis. While LIBS itself is a powerful technique for elemental analysis, the vast amount of spectral data it generates can be hard to interpret. Machine learning addresses these challenges by leveraging algorithms that can learn from data, identify patterns, and make predictions without explicit programming for the interpretation of each specific task. In LIBS application, ML techniques are used to enhance various analytical processes. For example, ML algorithms can classify materials based on their spectral fingerprints, predict the concentration of elements in a sample, and identify underlying patterns within complex datasets. Here, this application improves the precision of LIBS analyses while significantly reducing the time required for data processing and interpretation. In this chapter, the fundamental concepts of ML will be discussed first. Following this, the process of data splitting and the importance of feature selection will be examined. Several machine learning methods will then be closely examined, exploring how each can benefit LIBS analysis and highlighting their respective advantages and shortcomings. This structured approach will provide a comprehensive understanding of the integration of ML in the context of LIBS analysis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of Detailed Polyethylene Pyrolysis Kinetics into CFD Simulations using Machine Learning

Municipal solid waste (MSW) and waste plastics have received significant attention due to the issues of waste generation and storage, as well as their potential as an energy resource. High-density polyethylene (HDPE) makes up a large portion of plastic waste and has been the subject of several conversion studies. However, the mechanisms associated with converting HDPE through pyrolysis and gasification are extensive and complex making them difficult to implement into high-fidelity computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations. For this project, a primary pyrolysis mechanism containing 42 unique species and 737 heterogeneous reactions was used to generate kinetic data over a range of operating conditions. A machine learning (ML) model was developed to replicate the results of the detailed pyrolysis mechanism while significantly increasing the computational efficiency. A deep operator network (DeepONet) architecture was adopted to train the model using time steps relevant to CFD simulations. The ML used physics-based loss functions to ensure mass conservation. The ML model has been deployed in simple MFiX CFD simulations, single particle, and an experimental drop tube reactor, and has shown promising performance compared to the original scheme.

Houston, Ross↗

DOE OSTI2025

Atomate2: modular workflows for materials science

High-throughput density functional theory (DFT) calculations have become a vital element of computational materials science, enabling materials screening, property database generation, and training of “universal” machine learning models. While several software frameworks have emerged to support these computational efforts, new developments such as machine learned force fields have increased demands for more flexible and programmable workflow solutions. This manuscript introduces atomate2, a comprehensive evolution of our original atomate framework, designed to address existing limitations in computational materials research infrastructure. Key features include the support for multiple electronic structure packages and interoperability between them, along with generalizable workflows that can be written in an abstract form irrespective of the DFT package or machine learning force field used within them. Our hope is that atomate2's improved usability and extensibility can reduce technical barriers for high-throughput research workflows and facilitate the rapid adoption of emerging methods in computational material science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detecting Important Drivers of Gridded Population Modeling With Machine Learning

High-resolution population datasets have been lever-aged across a broad swath of domains, such as climate change, public policy, humanitarian aid, and rescue operations, among others. Machine learning methods were adopted to generate high-resolution or gridded population estimates by using various geospatial input features such as buildings, roads, and nighttime lights. In this study, we evaluate the importance of population features using Random Forest models across three levels of analysis, utilizing permutation measures. Our research aims to address key questions to enhance our understanding of high-resolution population modeling, such as: Are certain features globally (10 countries collectively) more important than others? Do optimal features vary by country? Within each country, do feature importance differ across administrative units? What similarities exist in feature importance at the global, country, and administrative unit levels? To answer these questions, we leverage the Kneedle algorithm to automate the selection of optimum features. We find that there are patterns displayed by features across spatial boundaries, evidenced by the same feature being the most important indicator of population across 7 of the 10 countries modeled. Our findings indicate that while important features may vary across geographies, certain features consistently hold greater importance than others agnostic of geography.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗

DOE OSTI2025

NNL.Fe.qSNAP-ZBL.2024.1: A Fe Spectral Neighbor Analysis Potential for Radiation Damage Simulations

The NNL.Fe.qSNAP-ZBL.2024.1 machine-learned potential (MLP) has been generated to support the development of an elemental body-centered cubic (BCC) Fe athermal recombination corrected neutron damage model and simulations of primary recoil atom (PRA) cascades in BCC Fe. This MLP is a quadratic spectral neighbor analysis potential (qSNAP) hybridized with the universal Ziegler-Beirsack-Littmark (ZBL) potential at short-range and is named according to Naval Nuclear Laboratory MLP naming conventions (NNL.material-system.MLP-type.year.version). Training set calculations for Fe are presented along with the subsequent MLP fitting procedure. A key criterion of the fitting procedure is that ZBL describes the short-range interaction with minimal impact on the MLP. The MLP is compared to density functional theory (DFT) predicted properties relevant to radiation damage simulation, including threshold displacement energies, for validation. The NNL.Fe.qSNAP-ZBL.2024.1 potential is considered suitable for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of radiation defects up to 800 K and PRA cascades in BCC Fe up to around 10 keV. The potential can additionally be used on a limited basis for recoils of 10–20 keV, within which range the emergence of structures outside the training set in cascade simulations may cause system instabilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Advancing MSD Research with Artificial Intelligence

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) are quickly changing the landscape of tools available to conceptualize, execute, and disseminate research. We posit that research efforts in Multi-Sector Dynamics can benefit from these advances; the new AI in MSD Working Group thus aims to identify and quantify opportunities and risks associated with their implementation. In this webinar, we will first introduce the new AI Working Group, which was initially conceived during the first MSD workshop in October 2023. Next, our panelists will explore how generative AI, explainable AI, and machine learning can help us improve modeling efforts in multiple domains, including climate science, hydrology, and energy systems. Finally, we will discuss the aims of the working group, gather inputs from the community, and suggest directions for the next steps. Presenters : Andrea Castelletti (Politecnico di Milano; Invited Speaker), Chaopeng Shen (Pennsylvania State University; Invited Speaker), Nicole Jackson (Sandia National Laboratory; Invited Speaker), Stefano Galelli (Cornell University; Co-Chair), David Gold (Utrecht University; Co-Chair), Jillian Sturtevant (Baylor University; Communications Officer) Moderator: Pat M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: June 14th, 2024 from 12-1:30 PM EST

Artificial Intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2024

Steam Generator Model Design Parameter Sensitivity Study Using Advanced Optimization Tools

This study focuses on design parameter sensitivity studies pertaining to a steam generator (SG) model, using both Python and machine-learning tools. The SG model is a mathematical representation (including fluid flow and heat transfer equations/models/correlations) of a steam-generating unit in a pressurized water reactor (PWR)-type small modular reactor (SMR) system. Design studies involve changing the model’s input design parameters (e.g., temperature, pressure, mass flow rate) to observe the resulting effects on the output of the system (e.g., heat transfer coefficient [HTC], Nusselt number, heat transfer performance). Sensitivity studies analyze the degree to which system output and/or desired parameters (e.g., HTC or heat transfer performance) are sensitive to changes in input parameters. By using machine-learning tools such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), detailed design parametric sensitivity studies and model optimization were performed. Six input parameters—namely, the pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate for the inlet of the primary-side (hot fluid) and secondary-side (cold fluid) of the SG—were randomly perturbed via RAVEN’s Monte Carlo Sampler module, using uniform distributions (±1% relative changes). The analysis results give valuable insights into SG system performance and optimization, and provide justification for researching optimized sensor placement to effectively monitor and obtain experimental data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Steam Generator Model Design Parameter Sensitivity Study Using Advanced Optimization Tools

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the energy landscape of RBMs: reciprocal space insights into bosons, hierarchical learning and symmetry breaking

Deep generative models have become ubiquitous due to their ability to learn and sample from complex distributions. Despite the proliferation of various frameworks, the relationships among these models remain largely unexplored, a gap that hinders the development of a unified theory of AI learning. In this work, we address two central challenges: clarifying the connections between different deep generative models and deepening our understanding of their learning mechanisms. We focus on Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs), a class of generative models known for their universal approximation capabilities for discrete distributions. By introducing a reciprocal space formulation for RBMs, we reveal a connection between these models, diffusion processes, and systems of coupled bosons. Our analysis shows that at initialization, the RBM operates at a saddle point, where the local curvature is determined by the singular values of the weight matrix, whose distribution follows the Marc̆enko-Pastur law and exhibits rotational symmetry. During training, this rotational symmetry is broken due to hierarchical learning, where different degrees of freedom progressively capture features at multiple levels of abstraction. This leads to a symmetry breaking in the energy landscape, reminiscent of Landau’s theory. This symmetry breaking in the energy landscape is characterized by the singular values and the weight matrix eigenvector matrix. We derive the corresponding free energy in a mean-field approximation. We show that in the limit of infinite size RBM, the reciprocal variables are Gaussian distributed. Our findings indicate that in this regime, there will be some modes for which the diffusion process will not converge to the Boltzmann distribution. To illustrate our results, we trained replicas of RBMs with different hidden layer sizes using the MNIST dataset. Our findings not only bridge the gap between disparate generative frameworks but also shed light on the fundamental processes underpinning learning in deep generative models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning for DUNE Supernova Trigger

One of the major scientific goals of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is to detect and measure the neutrino flux originating from galactic core-collapse supernovae. These neutrinos provide an opportunity to study the end of life evolution of massive stars, and reveal information about the structure of core-collapse that is not visible in observations of the electromagnetic spectrum. Because of the rarity of these events, it is crucial that DUNE is able to detect supernova neutrino interactions when they occur. However, this will require sifting through a large quantity of data, motivating the development of a trigger algorithm to identify significant events and discard irrelevant data. Machine learning provides a potential approach to building this trigger. This project generates ADC and ground truth images of simulated neutrino interactions in a LArTPC detector to be used for machine learning, and uses them to train a sparse Convolutional Neural Network (C NN). The performance of this model when applied to the task of pixel classification based on interaction type is examined. This project found that the sparse CNN approach has the potential to have high accuracy in pixel classification, meaning it may be highly relevant to the development of a supernova neutrino trigger for the DUNE far detector.

Damish, S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving microstructures segmentation via pretraining with synthetic data

Image analysis of material microstructures through microscopy is an integral capability in the field of materials science. The topological and chemical information obtained through microscopy allow us to draw vital connections between material microstructures, properties, and processing. While scanning electron microscopy (SEM) is able to yield a considerable wealth of information interpretable by the intuition of experts, there has been considerable interest in using machine learning, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in particular, for such image analysis task. Training CNNs for an image analysis task requires a large annotated dataset. However, in many materials science applications, obtaining a large annotated dataset is cost and labor intensive. In this work, we study the use of synthetic data to enlarge the available annotated experimental data of uranium oxide. We utilize a modified Potts model to simulate uranium oxide particles with morphologies similar to those observed experimentally. We then leverage an image-to-image translation model to synthesize the simulated particles as if they are acquired with SEM. Through this process, we obtain pairs of particle images and their corresponding SEM representations, which corresponds to pairs of annotations and images. Unlike previous works, we leverage synthetic data for pretraining a CNN model prior, and finetune that model further with experimental data. We experimentally demonstrate that using synthetic data as incremental learning process benefits the overall performance compared to training a model on combined synthetic and experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing the Prediction of MS/MS Spectra Using Machine Learning

Tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) is an important tool for the identification of small molecules and metabolites where resultant spectra are most commonly identified by matching them with spectra in MS/MS reference libraries. While popular, this strategy is limited by the contents of existing reference libraries. In response to this limitation, various methods are being developed for the in silico generation of spectra to augment existing libraries. Recently, machine learning and deep learning techniques have been applied to predict spectra with greater speed and accuracy. Here, in this work, we investigate the challenges these algorithms face in achieving fast and accurate predictions on a wide range of small molecules. The challenges are often amplified by the use of generic machine learning benchmarking tactics, which lead to misleading accuracy scores. Curating data sets, only predicting spectra for sufficiently high collision energies, and working more closely with experimental mass spectrometrists are recommended strategies to improve overall prediction accuracy in this nuanced field.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combining Machine Learning and Comparative Effectiveness Methodology to Study Primary Care Pharmacotherapy Pathways for Veterans With Depression

Our objective is to demonstrate an innovative method combining machine learning with comparative effectiveness research techniques and to investigate a hitherto unstudied question about the effectiveness of common prescribing patterns. For Operation Enduring Freedom/Operation Iraqi Freedom veterans with major depressive disorder, we generate pharmacotherapy pathways (of antidepressants) using process mining and machine learning. We select the medication episodes that were started at subtherapeutic doses by the first assigned primary care physician and observe the paths that those medication episodes follow. Using 2-stage least squares, we test the effectiveness of starting at a low dose and staying low for longer versus ramping up fast while balancing observable and unobservable characteristics of patients and providers through instrumental variables. We leverage predetermined provider practice patterns as instruments. We collected outpatient pharmacy data for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, patient and provider characteristics (as control variables), and the instruments for our cohort. All data were extracted for the period between 2006 and 2020. There is a statistically significant positive effect (0.68, 95% CI 0.11–1.25) of “ramping up fast” on engagement in care. When we examine the effect of “ramping up slow”, we see an insignificant negative impact on engagement in care (−0.82, 95% CI −1.89 to 0.25). As expected, the probability of drop-out also seems to have a negative effect on engagement in care (−0.39, 95% CI −0.94 to 0.17). We further validate these results by testing with medication possession ratios calculated periodically as an alternative engagement in care metric. Our findings contradict the “Start low, go slow” adage, indicating that ramping up the dose of an antidepressant faster has a significantly positive effect on engagement in care for our population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗