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This subcontract was used to evaluate the convection-permitting version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), generally referred to as the simple Cloud-resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM). Three projects were addressed and briefly summarized..
Systematically characterizing slip behaviours on active faults is key to unraveling the physics of tectonic faulting and the interplay between slow and fast earthquakes. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), by enabling measurement of ground deformation at a global scale every few days, may hold the key to those interactions. However, atmospheric propagation delays often exceed ground deformation of interest despite state-of-the art processing, and thus InSAR analysis requires expert interpretation and a priori knowledge of fault systems, precluding global investigations of deformation dynamics. Here, we show that a deep auto-encoder architecture tailored to untangle ground deformation from noise in InSAR time series autonomously extracts deformation signals, without prior knowledge of a fault’s location or slip behaviour. Applied to InSAR data over the North Anatolian Fault, our method reaches 2 mm detection, revealing a slow earthquake twice as extensive as previously recognized. We further explore the generalization of our approach to inflation/deflation-induced deformation, applying the same methodology to the geothermal field of Coso, California.
The change in global mean surface temperature is a crucial and broadly used indicator of the evolution of climate change. Any decadal scale changes in warming rate are however obfuscated by internal variability. Here we show that the surface temperature increase through the recent La Nina influenced years (2022) is consistent with the 50-year trend of 0.18 °C/decade. We use an Earth System Model based tool to filter out modulations to the warming rate by sea-surface temperature patterns and find consistent warming rates in four major global temperature data series. However, we also find clear indications, in all observational series, of a step-up in warming rate since around 1990. CMIP6 models generally do not capture this observed combination of long-term warming rate and recent increase.
Modelling geophysical processes as low-dimensional dynamical systems and regressing their vector field from data is a promising approach for learning emulators of such systems. We show that when the kernel of these emulators is also learned from data (using kernel flows, a variant of cross-validation), then the resulting data-driven models are not only faster than equation-based models but are easier to train than neural networks such as the long short-term memory neural network. In addition, they are also more accurate and predictive than the latter. When trained on geophysical observational data, for example the weekly averaged global sea-surface temperature, considerable gains are also observed by the proposed technique in comparison with classical partial differential equation-based models in terms of forecast computational cost and accuracy. When trained on publicly available re-analysis data for the daily temperature of the North American continent, we observe significant improvements over classical baselines such as climatology and persistence-based forecast techniques. Although our experiments concern specific examples, the proposed approach is general, and our results support the viability of kernel methods (with learned kernels) for interpretable and computationally efficient geophysical forecasting for a large diversity of processes.
Illicit tunneling along the U.S. Mexican border is a persistent national security problem. Several types of sensors could be to used to detect tunnels, but the hydrogeology of the subsurface makes some technologies ineffective. This effort used available borehole and surface geology data to develop 3D hydrogeologic models, which could then provide the input for optimizing subsurface sensor technologies to detect tunnels. Depending on the specific type of sensor, the following physical properties of the subsurface are important: longitudinal speed (velocity-p), shear speed (velocity-s), acoustic attenuation, electrical permittivity, electrical conductivity, density and elastic properties. LLNL developed a procedure which uses hydrogeological datasets to determine 3D hydrogeology cross sections. The physical properties of the rocks are generally not known precisely, thus ranges of properties would need to be considered. This cross-section data can then be utilized to enhance modeling studies to optimize sensor types/systems.
One-dimensional site response analysis (1D SRA) remains the standard practice in considering the effect of local soil deposits and predicting site-specific ground motions, although its range of applicability to realistic seismic wavefields is still in question. In this 1D approach, horizontal and vertical ground shaking are assumed to be induced by vertically propagating shear and compressional waves, respectively. A recent study based on analytical two-dimensional (2D) plane waves and simple point source earthquake simulations has shown two mechanistic limitations in this 1D modelling technique for general inclined seismic waves, that is, systematic over-prediction of the vertical motion and wave trapping in the 1D soil column. In this article, we evaluate in detail the applicability of this 1D modelling approach to realistic three-dimensional (3D) simulated seismic wavefields in shallow sedimentary basins. Linear-viscoelastic 1D SRA predictions using two types of input motions that are commonly used in practice—rock outcrop and in-column motions, are compared with the reference true site response results from 3D earthquake simulations in terms of various measures in the frequency and time domain. It is shown that the horizontal motion in the 3D seismic wavefield exhibits dominant shear wave propagation phenomenon, while the vertical motion is a combined effect of compressional and shear waves and can be over-predicted by the 1D approach when the incident seismic waves are inclined. Direct evidence of the wave refraction process that leads to the vertical motion over-prediction is provided. 1D SRA with in-column inputs can yield motions that have significantly longer duration compared to the true 3D site response solution due to trapped waves, casting in doubt the frequent need for increased soil damping in existing site studies to compensate for wave attenuation due to scattering alone. Sensitivity investigation on the increase of soil profile damping by a multiplier D mul shows D mul values compatible with those found in the literature for both horizontal and vertical motions. It is shown that the level of D mul optimized for a best match of the spectral acceleration is dependent on the characteristic of the input motion and a larger D mul is typically required for the vertical component. In contrast, 1D SRA with outcrop motions predicts motions with shorter significant duration due to its inability to capture the basin-edge generated surface waves. A suite of ground motion simulations was performed to assess the sensitivity of the observations to the basin geologic structure including the velocity gradient, rock-basin impedance contrast and basin depth. The analysis results show that the accuracy of the simplified 1D procedure is dependent on the wavefield composition of both the input motions and the true 3D site response solution. While the horizontal motions in shallow sedimentary basins can, to the first order, be reasonably captured by the simplified 1D approach, 1D SRA for the vertical component is in general not reliable and contributions from inclined shear waves should be accounted for in site-specific evaluation of the vertical design ground motion.
In climatological research, the evaluation of climate models is one of the central research subjects. As an expression of large-scale dynamical processes, global teleconnections play a major role in interannual to decadal climate variability. Their realistic representation is an indispensable requirement for the simulation of climate change, both natural and anthropogenic. Therefore, the evaluation of global teleconnections is of utmost importance when assessing the physical plausibility of climate projections. We present an application of the graph-theoretical analysis tool δ-MAPS, which constructs complex networks on the basis of spatio-temporal gridded data sets, here sea surface temperature and geopotential height at 500 hPa. Complex networks complement more traditional methods in the analysis of climate variability, like the classification of circulation regimes or empirical orthogonal functions, assuming a new non-linear perspective. While doing so, a number of technical tools and metrics, borrowed from different fields of data science, are implemented into the δ-MAPS framework in order to overcome specific challenges posed by our target problem. Those are trend empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), distance correlation and distance multicorrelation, and the structural similarity index. δ-MAPS is a two-stage algorithm. In the first place, it assembles grid cells with highly coherent temporal evolution into so-called domains. In a second step, the teleconnections between the domains are inferred by means of the non-linear distance correlation. We construct 2 unipartite and 1 bipartite network for 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections and 2 century-long coupled reanalyses (CERA-20C and 20CRv3). Potential non-stationarity is taken into account by the use of moving time windows. The networks derived from projection data are compared to those from reanalyses. Our results indicate that no single climate projection outperforms all others in every aspect of the evaluation. But there are indeed models which tend to perform better/worse in many aspects. Differences in model performance are generally low within the geopotential height unipartite networks but higher in sea surface temperature and most pronounced in the bipartite network representing the interaction between ocean and atmosphere.
Here, we have calculated the reduced partition function ratios for carbon isotopes (β-factor) of 67 hydrocarbons (alkanes, alkenes, alkynes, cycloalkanes, and aromatics), including their 267 single-substituted isotopomers. The calculations were performed using the harmonic oscillator – rigid rotator model and the Urey / Bigeleisen-Mayer approach. Normal frequencies of molecular vibrations of the isotopologues were calculated from the molecular structures data and valence field force constants stored in the Light-handled Elucidation of Vibrations (LEV) database elaborated by Dr. Gribov and his colleagues in Russia. The LEV database is constructed from experimental spectroscopic and structural data by solving inverse problems of molecular vibrations. The LEV is internally consistent and the most comprehensive database available to date. The β-factor were calculated in the temperature range of 200–800 K with a 10 K step. Our calculations predict that the β-factors increase with an increasing number of C atoms within the same groups of hydrocarbons (e.g., alkanes). Our calculations also show a general descending order of 13 C enrichments among the different groups of hydrocarbons: cycloalkanes, aromatics, alkenes (double bonds) and isoalkanes, alkanes, alkynes (triple bonds). Position-specific, intramolecular isotope effects within hydrocarbons are determined by the β-factors of C in the different functional groups in the order: quaternary (C), tertiary (methine, CH), secondary (methylene, CH 2 ), primary (methyl, CH 3 ) and double bond (C=C), saturated bond (C - C), triple bond (HC≡). Our calculations on bulk and position-specific carbon isotope β-factors of the hydrocarbons, which are generally consistent with very limited ab initio calculations in the literature, are internally consistent and the most comprehensive to date for future applications to position-specific isotope geochemistry of hydrocarbons.
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The naturally occurring rare isotopes are versions of common elements, such as hydrogen, carbon and oxygen, that contain a larger than usual number of neutrons in their atomic nuclei and therefore are higher in mass than the common atoms of that element. Isotopes exist for most elements and are found in most natural and synthetic materials, but are uneven in their distribution because chemical and physical processes are isotope-selective (e.g., a chemical reaction may proceed more rapidly for one isotope than for another). For this reason, abundances of isotopes in a material of interest can provide a record, or ‘signature’ of various features of that material’s origin and history. These signatures have been used in the geo, life, chemical and physical sciences in a wide variety of ways over close to 8 decades. However, many such applications struggle to reach unique interpretations of isotopic data because multiple factors combine to control a given sample’s overall isotopic content. That is, the factors controlling isotopic content are too numerous and complex to fully constrain from a simple measurement of a material’s isotope abundances. However, the distribution of isotopes within materials, at molecular scales potentially provides a vastly larger number and diversity of constraints on the chemical and physical processes that comprise a material’s history. The rare isotopes may be concentrated into one atomic position in a molecule relative to another, some proportion of molecules in a sample may contain two or more rare isotopes, and those multiply-isotope-substituted forms of molecules may also have uneven distributions of those isotopes across individual atomic sites. For these reasons, even small, seemingly simple molecules, such as sugars, amino acids or drug compounds, actually exist in a vast number of isotopically unique forms (often millions or more), and each one of those forms is in some sense an independent ‘vote’ on that sample’s history. This project has focused on opening this rich archive of information by enabling the creation of routinely and widely applicable ways of measuring and interpreting isotopic structures of molecules. This work has included the development of core technologies and analytical methods, advancing fundamental understanding of the physical and chemical properties of isotopic versions of molecules, and conducting proof of concept studies of illustrative geochemical, cosmochemical and forensic problems in order to show how these technologies, methods and principles come together to solve problems in new ways. A key to the success of this project was the adaptation of ‘Fourier transform mass spectrometry’ (FTMS) to the task of precisely measuring proportions of the rare, naturally occurring isotopic forms of molecules. FTMS is a highly specialized form of mass spectrometry that traps ions within magnetic or electrostatic cavities and, effectively, ‘listens’ (through registering of subtle electrical signals) to the harmonic signals they make while rapidly orbiting within those cavities. These signals have periods that are a function of their mass and strength (or ‘loudness’) that is proportional to their abundances. Thus, these signals constrain relative amounts of molecules that differ in their mass due to various isotopic substitutions. This technology has been essential to the identification of organic molecules in the life, chemical and environmental sciences for over 4 decades, but generally has lacked the control, stability and precision to meaningfully measure rare isotope forms of molecules. This project’s most fundamental contribution has been to modify FTMS, both in terms of hardware and methods, to enable such measurements. The raw data of molecular isotopic structure is tremendously voluminous and complex, so another important activity of this project has been developing the theoretical and data-science tools needed to interpret the data generated by this new form of isotopic measurement. A particularly challenging part of this task has been predicting molecular isotopic structure, as only through the comparison of measurements with predictions can we make progress on hypothesis driven research questions. We have attacked this this prediction task through a combination of first-principles chemical-physics models of the effects of isotope substitution on molecule properties and data-science models that permit us to generalize that chemical physics to cases that have not yet been studied by detailed chemical physics theory. The proof of concept applications we have pursued over the course of this study include biological reactions of amino acids and other biomolecules, non-biological synthesis of organic molecules in extra-terrestrial settings such as meteorites, petroleum geoscience questions concerning the origin and evolution of natural gas, oil and kerogen compounds, and forensic questions such as the sourcing of chemical weapons. The successes of these applications have laid the groundwork for the next phase of this field’s development, which will include larger scale and more ambitious studies of molecular isotopic structure as a means of diagnosing human diseases, such as cancer, and reconstructing detailed interpretations of the origin and evolution of organic molecules in modern and geological environments.
This work presents the results and analyses of uniaxial compression experiments performed on three silica sands. The sands have comparable particle-size distributions, but their particles differ in morphology and strength. Cylindrical samples of the three sands were compressed in a loading device placed inside an X-ray microscope (XRM) and scanned at multiple stress levels during uniaxial compression. 3D tomography data of the samples obtained from the XRM at different stress levels were then analyzed to obtain the distributions of particle size, particle morphology, and interparticle contact normals within the sample. Results indicate that: (1) the compressibility of the sands loaded under uniaxial compression is closely tied to particle morphology and strength and (2) the anisotropy in the orientations of interparticle contact normals generally increases with axial stress; however, this increase is limited by the occurrence of particle crushing in the sample.
Abstract In this paper, we introduce a testbed for evaluating and comparing climate modeling systems at cloud resolving scales using hindcasts of the June 2012 North American derecho. To demonstrate its utility for model intercomparison, the testbed is applied to two models: the regionally‐refined Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) at 6.5, 3.25 and 1.625 km grid spacing and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 3.2 and 1.6 km grid spacing. We find the simulation results to be highly sensitive to the initial conditions (ICs), initialization time, and model configurations, with ICs from the Rapid Refresh producing the best simulation. Significant improvement is identified in both models as horizontal grid spacing is refined. While a propagation delay of approximately 2 hr is found in both models, SCREAM at 1.625 km simulates the observed bow echo structure of the derecho well and predicts strong surface gusts that exceed 30 m/s. In comparison, WRF has difficulty producing surface wind over 25 m/s, with wind gusts in WRF 42%–46% lower than in SCREAM. However, WRF has a lower bias in simulating cloud top temperature and extent, but overestimates precipitation intensity. Both models reproduce the observed outgoing longwave radiation spatial patterns well (Pearson correlation >0.88), but, compared with NEXRAD observations, simulate generally larger areas of composite radar reflectivity >40 dBZ and underestimate the precipitating area by ∼47%.
The continental flood inundation mapping (CFIM) framework is a high-performance computing (HPC)-based computational framework for the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND)-based inundation mapping methodology. Using the 10m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data produced by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 3DEP (the 3-D Elevation Program) and the NHDPlus hydrography dataset produced by USGS and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a hydrological terrain raster called HAND is computed for HUC6 units in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The value of each raster cell in HAND is an approximation of the relative elevation between the cell and its nearest water stream. Derived from HAND, a hydraulic property table is established to calculate river geometry properties for each of the 2.7 million river reaches covered by NHDPlus (5.5 million kilometers in total length). This table is a lookup table for water depth given an input stream flow value. Such lookup is available between water depth 0m and 25m at 1-foot interval. The flood inundation map is then computed by using HAND and this lookup table based on the near real-time water forecast from the National Water Model (NWM) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). HAND and the Hydraulic Property Table version 0.2. is created to correspond to data updates in the USGS 1/3 arcsec DEM, the USGS National Hydrography Dataset, including its Water Boundary Dataset, and the NHDPlus medium resolution dataset. This dataset comprises 331 HUC6 units for CONUS (excluding the five great lakes units), each is a downloadable zip file. Version 0.1 was computed at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) at the University of Illinois at Urban-Champaign in 2016 and is currently hosted at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC). Please cite this data DOI and the following publications and data DOIs when you use HAND and the hydraulic property table: Liu, Yan Y., David R. Maidment, David G. Tarboton, Xing Zheng, and Shaowen Wang. 'A CyberGIS integration and computation framework for high-resolution continental-scale flood inundation mapping.' JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 54, no. 4 (2018): 770-784. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12660 Zheng, Xing, David G. Tarboton, David R. Maidment, Yan Y. Liu, and Paola Passalacqua. 'River channel geometry and rating curve estimation using height above the nearest drainage.' JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 54, no. 4 (2018): 785-806. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12661 Liu, Y. (2018). Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) for CONUS - v0.1, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.69f7d237675c4c73938481904358c789 LICENSE FOR USE -- MAPS AND DATA DISCLAIMER This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ MAPS AND DATA DISCLAIMER The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described or information contained on this map or associated series of maps. The data and related map graphics are not legal, land survey or engineering documents and are not intended to be used as such. ORNL gives no warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, utility or completeness of this information. The user of these maps and data assumes all responsibility and risk for the use of the maps and data. ORNL disclaims all warranties, representations or endorsements either express or implied, with regard to the information contained in this map product, including, but not limited to, all implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. This preliminary map product is for research and review purposes only. It is not intended to be used for emergency management operational or life safety decisions at the local or regional governmental level or by the general public. Users requiring information regarding hazardous conditions or meteorological conditions for specific geographic areas should consult directly with their city or county emergency management office.
The continental flood inundation mapping (CFIM) framework is a high-performance computing (HPC)-based computational framework for the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND)-based inundation mapping methodology. Using the 10m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data produced by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 3DEP (the 3-D Elevation Program) and the NHDPlus hydrography dataset produced by USGS and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a hydrological terrain raster called HAND is computed for HUC6 units in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The value of each raster cell in HAND is an approximation of the relative elevation between the cell and its nearest water stream. Derived from HAND, a hydraulic property table is established to calculate river geometry properties for each of the 2.7 million river reaches covered by NHDPlus (5.5 million kilometers in total length). This table is a lookup table for water depth given an input stream flow value. Such lookup is available between water depth 0m and 25m at 1-foot interval. The flood inundation map is then computed by using HAND and this lookup table based on the near real-time water forecast from the National Water Model (NWM) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). HAND and the Hydraulic Property Table version v0.21 is an upgrade to v0.2. Version 0.21 applies NHD HR etching to DEMs for all HUC6 units before running the HAND workflow. This new version also fixed the issue of void areas along HUC boundary. This dataset comprises 331 HUC6 units for CONUS (excluding the five great lakes units), each is a downloadable zip file. Version 0.1 was computed at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) at the University of Illinois at Urban-Champaign in 2016 and is currently hosted at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC). Please cite this data DOI and the following publications and data DOIs when you use HAND and the hydraulic property table: Liu, Yan Y. Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) and Hydraulic Property Table for CONUS - Version 0.2. (20200301). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. (2020). DOI: 10.13139/ORNLNCCS/1608331 Liu, Yan Y., David R. Maidment, David G. Tarboton, Xing Zheng, and Shaowen Wang. 'A CyberGIS integration and computation framework for high-resolution continental-scale flood inundation mapping.' JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 54, no. 4 (2018): 770-784. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12660 Zheng, Xing, David G. Tarboton, David R. Maidment, Yan Y. Liu, and Paola Passalacqua. 'River channel geometry and rating curve estimation using height above the nearest drainage.' JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 54, no. 4 (2018): 785-806. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12661 Liu, Y. (2018). Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) for CONUS, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.69f7d237675c4c73938481904358c789 LICENSE FOR USE -- MAPS AND DATA DISCLAIMER This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ MAPS AND DATA DISCLAIMER The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described or information contained on this map or associated series of maps. The data and related map graphics are not legal, land survey or engineering documents and are not intended to be used as such. ORNL gives no warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, utility or completeness of this information. The user of these maps and data assumes all responsibility and risk for the use of the maps and data. ORNL disclaims all warranties, representations or endorsements either express or implied, with regard to the information contained in this map product, including, but not limited to, all implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. This preliminary map product is for research and review purposes only. It is not intended to be used for emergency management operational or life safety decisions at the local or regional governmental level or by the general public. Users requiring information regarding hazardous conditions or meteorological conditions for specific geographic areas should consult directly with their city or county emergency management office.
Aftershock sequences are a burden to real-time seismic monitoring. Cross-correlation can be used because aftershocks exhibit similar waveforms, but the method is computationally expensive. Deep learning may be an alternative, as it is computationally efficient, but great attention to training and testing is required in order to trust that the model can generalize to new aftershock sequences. This is problematic for aftershock sequences, because large-magnitude earthquakes are unpredictable and are globally widespread. Here, we test several paired neural network (PNN) models trained on a augmented (noise-added) earthquake dataset, to determine whether they can be generalized to process real aftershock sequences. Two aftershock datasets that were originally detected by cross-correlation and subsequently validated by an expert analyst were used. We found that current PNN models struggle to generalize to aftershock sequences. However, we identify approaches to improve training future PNN models and believe that improvements may be achieved by transfer learning.
Abstract Moisture loss in rock is known to generate acoustic emissions (AE). Phenomena that result in AE during drying are related to the movement of fluids through the pores and induced‐cracks that arise from differential mineral shrinkage, especially in clay‐bearing rock. AE from the movement of fluids occurs from the reconfiguration of fluid interfaces during drying, while AE from mineral shrinkage involves the debonding within or between minerals. Here, analogue rock samples were used to examine the differences in the AE signatures when one or both AE source‐types are present. An unsupervised sparse regression model, Dynamic Mode Decomposition with control, that extends Dynamic Mode Decomposition is used to characterize the AE signals recorded during the drying of porous analogue rock samples fabricated with ordinary Portland cement, with and without clay. This method can effectively and accurately reconstruct acoustic signals emitted from samples that only experience moisture loss without cracking. However, the method struggles to reconstruct signals from samples with intricate crack networks that formed during drying because AE generating mechanisms can emit contemporaneously, and the resulting waves propagate through drying‐induced cracks that can lead to multiple internal reflections. Thus, the differential reconstruction accuracy of time series generated by different underlying physical processes provides a robust filter for reducing large data catalogs. In general, both dynamics and sparse initiating events are learned directly from data and this method exposes a data hierarchy based on the complexity of the intrinsic dynamics.
Uranium is a very important resource when using nuclear power. Only a small fraction of the uranium we use in the US is domestically sourced. Our goal is to effectively find and mine uranium in a way that is generally accurate and not difficult. Using computer science and machine learning, we want to automate a reasoning system that geologists use to analyze where the uranium ore bodies are. Presenting a general explanation of the goals and impacts of this project for the High School Intern showcase.
A technique originating in quantum dynamics is used to derive a trajectory-based, semi-analytical solution for two-phase flow. The partial differential equation governing the evolution of the aqueous phase is equivalent to a family of ordinary differential equations defined along a path through the porous medium. The trajectories may be found by solving the differential equations directly or by post-processing the output of a numerical solution to the full set of governing equations. The trajectories, which differ from conventional streamlines, are found to bend downward in response to gravitational forces. The curvature is more pronounced as the dip of the porous layer containing the flow increases. Subtle changes in the relative permeability curve can lead to significant variations in the trajectories. The ordinary differential equation for the trajectory provides an expression for the travel time along the path. The expression produces a semi-analytical approximation to the model parameter sensitivities, the partial derivatives of the travel times with respect to changes in the permeability model. The semi-analytical trajectory-based sensitivities generally agree with those computed using a numerical reservoir simulator and a perturbation approach. The sensitivities are useful in tomographic imaging algorithms designed to estimate the spatial variation in permeability within a porous medium using multiphase observations.