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New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗

Aviation Safety Concerns for the Future

The Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) is a multidisciplinary international group of aviation professionals that was established to identify possible future aviation safety hazards. The principle was adopted that future hazards are undesirable consequences of changes, and a primary activity of FAST became identification and prioritization of possible future changes affecting aviation. Since 2004, FAST has been maintaining a catalogue of "Areas of Change" (AoC) that could potentially influence aviation safety. The horizon for such changes is between 5 to 20 years. In this context, changes must be understood as broadly as possible. An AoC is a description of the change, not an identification of the hazards that result from the change. An ex-post analysis of the AoCs identified in 2004 demonstrates that changes catalogued many years previous were directly implicated in the majority of fatal aviation accidents over the past ten years. This paper presents an overview of the current content of the AoC catalogue and a subsequent discussion of aviation safety concerns related to these possible changes. Interactions among these future changes may weaken critical functions that must be maintained to ensure safe operations. Safety assessments that do not appreciate or reflect the consequences of significant interaction complexity will not be fully informative and can lead to inappropriate trade-offs and increases in other risks. The FAST strongly encourages a system-wide approach to safety risk assessment across the global aviation system, not just within the domain for which future technologies or operational concepts are being considered. The FAST advocates the use of the "Areas of Change" concept, considering that several possible future phenomena may interact with a technology or operational concept under study producing unanticipated hazards.

emerging risks↗

A review of the US Global Change Research Program and NASA's Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing System

This report reflects the results of a ten-day workshop convened at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography July 19-28, 1995. The workshop was convened as the first phase of a two part review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The workshop was organized to provide a review of the scientific foundations and progress to date in the USGCRP and an assessment of the implications of new scientific insights for future USGCRP and Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing System (MTPE/EOS) activities; a review of the role of NASA's MTPE/EOS program in the USGCRP observational strategy; a review of the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) as a component of USGCRP data management activities; and an assessment of whether recent developments in the following areas lead to a need to readjust MTPE/EOS plans. Specific consideration was given to: proposed convergence of U.S. environmental satellite systems and programs, evolving international plans for Earth observation systems, advances in technology, and potential expansion of the role of the private sector. The present report summarizes the findings and recommendations developed by the Committee on Global Change Research on the basis of the presentations, background materials, working group deliberations, and plenary discussions of the workshop. In addition, the appendices include summaries prepared by the six working groups convened in the course of the workshop.

Moore, Berrien, III↗

The design of a petabyte archive and distribution system for the NASA ECS project

The NASA EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Core System (ECS) will contain one of the largest data management systems ever built - the ECS Science and Data Processing System (SDPS). SDPS is designed to support long term Global Change Research by acquiring, producing, and storing earth science data, and by providing efficient means for accessing and manipulating that data. The first two releases of SDPS, Release A and Release B, will be operational in 1997 and 1998, respectively. Release B will be deployed at eight Distributed Active Archiving Centers (DAAC's). Individual DAAC's will archive different collections of earth science data, and will vary in archive capacity. The storage and management of these data collections is the responsibility of the SDPS Data Server subsystem. It is anticipated that by the year 2001, the Data Server subsystem at the Goddard DAAC must support a near-line data storage capacity of one petabyte. The development of SDPS is a system integration effort in which COTS products will be used in favor of custom components in very possible way. Some software and hardware capabilities required to meet ECS data volume and storage management requirements beyond 1999 are not yet supported by available COTS products. The ECS project will not undertake major custom development efforts to provide these capabilities. Instead, SDPS and its Data Server subsystem are designed to support initial implementations with current products, and provide an evolutionary framework that facilitates the introduction of advanced COTS products as they become available. This paper provides a high-level description of the Data Server subsystem design from a COTS integration standpoint, and discussed some of the major issues driving the design. The paper focuses on features of the design that will make the system scalable and adaptable to changing technologies.

Caulk, Parris M.↗

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

farm crops↗

Research and Educational Opportunities with NASA GSFC

The research carried out in the Earth sciences at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center will be the focus of the presentation. These research interests span the full breath of disciplines in Earth System Science. Branches and research groups focus on areas as diverse as planetary geomagnetics and atmospheric chemistry. There are 4 major laboratories in the directorate and 2 organizations that focus on scientific information technology. These laboratories focus on atmospheric sciences (atmospheric chemistry, climate and radiation, regional processes, atmospheric modeling), hydrological sciences (snow, ice, oceans, and seasonal-to-interannual prediction), terrestrial physics (geology, terrestrial biology, land-atmosphere interactions, geophysics), climate modeling (global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change). Two of the labs also have branches that focus on sensor development especially using lidar and microwave technologies. In the information technologies, areas of scientific and technical research, and expertise include massively parallel computers, technologies for high speed electronic networks, scientific visualization, information systems, archive and distribution systems, and information processing. Examples will be presented from each of these research disciplines.

Meeson, Blanche W.↗

Enhancing the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource Web Data Delivery System with Geographic Information System (GIS) Capabilities

Renewable energy technologies are changing the face of the world's energy market. Currently, these technologies are being incorporated within existing structures to increase energy efficiency. Crucial to the success of the emerging renewable market is the availability of accurate, global solar radiation, and meteorology data. This poster traces the history of the development of an effort to distribute data parameters from NASA's research for use in the energy sector applications spanning from renewable energy to energy efficiency. These data may be useful to several renewable energy sectors: solar and wind power generation, agricultural crop modeling, and sustainable buildings.

Chandler, William S.↗

Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Annual Report 2009

2009 was truly the year of astronomy at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. While the world at large was celebrating the International Year of Astronomy, we were sending more telescopes into space than in any other year, ever. As these missions unfold, the astronomers are sure to change the way we see the universe. One of the newly lofted observatories is on a quest to find planets like our own Earth orbiting other stars. Another is a telescope that gathers infrared light to help discover objects ranging from near-Earth asteroids to galaxies in the deepest universe. We also contributed critical enabling technologies to yet two other telescopes sent into space by our partners in Europe. And astronauts returned to Earth with a JPL-built camera that had captured the Hubble Space Telescope's most memorable pictures over many years. And while it was an epic time for these missions, we were no less busy in our other research specialties. Earth's moon drew much attention from our scientists and engineers, with two JPL instruments riding on lunar orbiters; previously unseen views of shadowed craters were provided by radar imaging conducted with the giant dish antennas of the Deep Space Network, our worldwide communication portal to spacecraft around the solar system. At Mars, our rovers and orbiters were highly productive, as were missions targeting Saturn, comets and the asteroid belt. Here at our home planet, satellites and instruments continued to serve up important information on global climate change. But our main business is, of course, exploring. Many initiatives will keep us busy for years. In 2009, NASA gave approval to start planning a major flagship mission to Jupiter's moon Europa in search of conditions that could host life, working with our partners in Europe. In addition to our prospective Earth science projects, we have full slates of missions in Mars exploration, planetary exploration and space-based astronomy. This year's annual report continues our recent direction of recounting the Laboratory's accomplishments throughout the year month by month.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)↗

Future Opportunities and Challenges in Remote Sensing of Drought

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and global efforts such as the Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS), National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and Group on Earth Observations (GEO), as well as the establishment of regional drought centers (e.g., European Drought Observatory) and geospatial visualization and monitoring systems (e.g, NASA SERVIR) have been undertaken to improve drought monitoring and early warning systems throughout the world. The suite of innovative remote sensing tools that have recently emerged will be looked upon to fill important data and knowledge gaps (NIDIS, 2007; NRC, 2007) to address a wide range of drought-related issues including food security, water scarcity, and human health.

Wardlow, Brian D.↗

NASA's Earth Observing Data and Information System - Near-Term Challenges

NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) has been a central component of the NASA Earth observation program since the 1990's. EOSDIS manages data covering a wide range of Earth science disciplines including cryosphere, land cover change, polar processes, field campaigns, ocean surface, digital elevation, atmosphere dynamics and composition, and inter-disciplinary research, and many others. One of the key components of EOSDIS is a set of twelve discipline-based Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) distributed across the United States. Managed by NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project at Goddard Space Flight Center, these DAACs serve over 3 million users globally. The ESDIS Project provides the infrastructure support for EOSDIS, which includes other components such as the Science Investigator-led Processing systems (SIPS), common metadata and metrics management systems, specialized network systems, standards management, and centralized support for use of commercial cloud capabilities. Given the long-term requirements, and the rapid pace of information technology and changing expectations of the user community, EOSDIS has evolved continually over the past three decades. However, many challenges remain. Challenges addressed in this paper include: growing volume and variety, achieving consistency across a diverse set of data producers, managing information about a large number of datasets, migration to a cloud computing environment, optimizing data discovery and access, incorporating user feedback from a diverse community, keeping metadata updated as data collections grow and age, and ensuring that all the content needed for understanding datasets by future users is identified and preserved.

Remote Sensing↗

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

models↗

Earth Science Enterprise Technology Strategy

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) is dedicated to understanding the total Earth system and the effects of natural and human-induced changes on the global environment. The goals of ESE are: (1) Expand scientific knowledge of the Earth system using NASA's unique vantage points of space, aircraft, and in situ platforms; (2) Disseminate information about the Earth system; and (3) Enable the productive use of ESE science and technology in the public and private sectors. ESE has embraced the NASA Administrator's better, faster, cheaper paradigm for Earth observing missions. We are committed to launch the next generation of Earth Observing System (EOS) missions at a substantially lower cost than the EOS first series. Strategic investment in advanced instrument, spacecraft, and information system technologies is essential to accomplishing ESE's research goals in the coming decades. Advanced technology will play a major role in shaping the ESE fundamental and applied research program of the future. ESE has established an Earth science technology development program with the following objectives: (1) To accomplish ESE space-based and land-based program elements effectively and efficiently; and (2) To enable ESE's fundamental and applied research programs goals as stated in the NASA Strategic Plan.

Source record↗

State of the SOOS GCMD Portal

A brief status update on NASA’s latest Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) keyword update, description of the differences between DIF-9 and DIF-10 formats in advance of the deprecation of DIF-9 support in Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) with specifics on the DIF-10.3 schema, transition schedule, and some usage metrics for the GCMD Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) Portal.

SOOS Portal↗

Improving Simulation of Irrigation in a Global Land Surface Model

Studies have shown that irrigated agriculture has substantial effects on local to regional hydrologic and atmospheric processes. These effects include increased evapotranspiration and near surface humidity, decreased air and ground temperature, augmented downwind precipitation, enhanced recharge, depletion of source water stocks, and overall changes to the regional water budget. However, developers of global offline and coupled modeling systems have been slow to incorporate irrigation. This presentation will describe progress towards simulating irrigation worldwide in the Land Information System (LIS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). We have developed and refined the ability to simulate sprinkler irrigation, furrow irrigation, paddy irrigation, and drip irrigation. We have reconciled multiple global and national irrigation, land cover, and crop type databases in an effort to (1) distinguish irrigated and rainfed agriculture, (2) simulate the proper distribution of crops (as sub-grid tiles) in each model grid pixel, and (3) apply the most likely irrigation method in each tile based on the crop type and country or state level information on the relative usage of sprinkler, flood, and drip irrigation. Using agricultural water withdrawal data, as available, for calibration and evaluation, we show that the implemented approach is promising but that much fine tuning remains to be done. In particular, irrigation model parameters that produce good results in one location often produce less satisfying results in others.

Matthew Rodell↗

Evolution of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS)

One of the strategic goals of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to "Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of the human spaceflight program to focus on exploration". An important sub-goal of this goal is to "Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs." NASA meets this subgoal in partnership with other U.S. agencies and international organizations through its Earth science program. A major component of NASA s Earth science program is the Earth Observing System (EOS). The EOS program was started in 1990 with the primary purpose of modeling global climate change. This program consists of a set of space-borne instruments, science teams, and a data system. The instruments are designed to obtain highly accurate, frequent and global measurements of geophysical properties of land, oceans and atmosphere. The science teams are responsible for designing the instruments as well as scientific algorithms to derive information from the instrument measurements. The data system, called the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS), produces data products using those algorithms as well as archives and distributes such products. The first of the EOS instruments were launched in November 1997 on the Japanese satellite called the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the last, on the U.S. satellite Aura, were launched in July 2004. The instrument science teams have been active since the inception of the program in 1990 and have participation from Brazil, Canada, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and U.S. The development of EOSDIS was initiated in 1990, and this data system has been serving the user community since 1994. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the history and evolution of EOSDIS since its beginnings to the present and indicate how it continues to evolve into the future. this chapter is organized as follows. Sect. 7.2 provides a discussion of EOSDIS, its elements and their functions. Sect. 7.3 provides details regarding the move towards more distributed systems for supporting both the core and community needs to be served by NASA Earth science data systems. Sect. 7.4 discusses the use of standards and interfaces and their importance in EOSDIS. Sect. 7.5 provides details about the EOSDIS Evolution Study. Sect. 7.6 presents the implementation of the EOSDIS Evolution plan. Sect. 7.7 briefly outlines the progress that the implementation has made towards the 2015 Vision, followed by a summary in Sect. 7.8.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram K.↗

Joint Interdisciplinary Earth Science Information Center

The report spans the three year period beginning in June of 2001 and ending June of 2004. Joint Interdisciplinary Earth Science Information Center's (JIESIC) primary purpose has been to carry out research in support of the Global Change Data Center and other Earth science laboratories at Goddard involved in Earth science, remote sensing and applications data and information services. The purpose is to extend the usage of NASA Earth Observing System data, microwave data and other Earth observing data. JIESIC projects fall within the following categories: research and development; STW and WW prototyping; science data, information products and services; and science algorithm support. JIESIC facilitates extending the utility of NASA's Earth System Enterprise (ESE) data, information products and services to better meet the science data and information needs of a number of science and applications user communities, including domain users such as discipline Earth scientists, interdisciplinary Earth scientists, Earth science applications users and educators.

Kafatos, Menas↗

Satellites as Sentinels for Climate and Health

Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing climate and environment-related human health problems through increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, and surveillance of parameters useful to such problems as vector- borne and infectious diseases, air and water quality,. harmful algal blooms, W radiation, contaminant and pathogen transport in air and water, and thermal stress. Remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIs), global positioning systems (GPS), improved computation capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities, together with local knowledge, are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global climate and health issues. These collaborative efforts are enabling increased understanding of the relationships among changes in temperature, rainfall, wind, soil moisture, solar radiation, vegetation, and the patterns of extreme weather events and health issues. This increased understanding and improved information and data sharing, in turn, empowers local health and environmental decision-makers to better predict climate-related health problems, decrease vulnerability, take preventive measures, and improve response actions. This paper provides a number of recent examples of how satellites - from their unique vantage point in space - can serve as sentinels for climate and health.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

NASA’s Earth System Observatory Formulation Overview

NASA’s Earth System Observatory (ESO) is an array of Earth-focused, interconnected satellite missions focused on five core study areas: Surface Biology and Geology, Mass Change, Aerosols, Surface Deformation and Change, and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation. Observatory development follows recommendations from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine’s 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey. Data gathered by ESO missions will provide actionable science to inform decisions related to climate change, disaster mitigation, and wildfires, improve real-time agricultural processes, and many other applications. Targeting launch dates in the late 2020s and early 2030s, each ESO satellite will deliver valuable information, but by working together as a single observatory system, their combined data and imagery will provide the global community with a 4D, holistic view of Earth, from bedrock to atmosphere. The ESO is also building on the legacy of international collaboration in Earth science, with initial participation and collaboration on these missions across space agency partners, including the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Centre National D'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), Canadian Space Agency (CSA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), and Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI). This paper provides an overview of ESO, as well as an update on ESO missions currently in formulation – the Atmosphere Observing System, Mass Change, and Surface Biology and Geology elements – including current mission architectures, international partner collaboration, science community engagement, and applications efforts, as well as how NASA and its partners will make ESO data accessible to users all over the world.

NASA Earth Science↗