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At least 127 records · Page 7

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount

Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. Here this study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected 21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s) to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more complex multi-latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below 1.5°C above the pre-industrial. All these multi-latitude cases will slow Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid-to-late 21st century SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the pre-industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at low southern hemisphere latitudes (~15°S - 30°S). These results highlight the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of ocean coupling in the weakening of the extratropical storm tracks from Arctic sea ice loss

Abstract Within the changing climate, the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks have been projected to shift poleward and expand eastward. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks arise from a variety of sometimes competing effects on the region's baroclinicity. Arctic amplification weakens the meridional temperature gradient, hence weakening the storm track, while low-latitude warming has the opposite effect, and surface-amplified warming at high latitudes reduces static stability. To determine the mechanisms driving these competing changes, we use a hierarchy of models with different levels of ocean-atmosphere coupling, using forcings from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) to assess the role of Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. We find that ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances and sharpens the weakening of both the North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks in response to Arctic sea ice loss, that surface turbulent heat flux modulates the intensity of the weakening, and that local ocean dynamics controls the meridional location of the response. A moist isentropic diagnostic of the atmospheric overturning circulation shows that most of the weakening of the storm tracks and its associated changes in atmospheric heat transport (AHT) arise from a weakening of the transient eddy mass flux. Poleward of the storm tracks, the AHT also decreases, but through weakened effective stratification rather than weakening mass fluxes, an effect which occurs even in the absence of ocean dynamical coupling.

Audette, Alexandre (ORCID:0000000163321088)↗

Whole-genome sequencing distinguishes the two most common giant kelp ecomorphs

Abstract Giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, exists as distinct morphological variants—or “ecomorphs”—in different populations, yet the mechanism for this variation is uncertain, and environmental drivers for either adaptive or plastic phenotypes have not been identified. The ecomorphs Macrocystis “pyrifera” and M. “integrifolia” are distributed throughout temperate waters of North and South America with almost no geographic overlap and exhibit an incongruous, non-mirrored, distribution across the equator. This study evaluates the degree of genetic divergence between M. “pyrifera” and M. “integrifolia” across 18 populations in Chile and California using whole-genome sequencing and single-nucleotide polymorphism markers. Our results based on a principal component analysis, admixture clustering by genetic similarity, and phylogenetic inference demonstrate that M. “pyrifera” and M. “integrifolia” are genetically distinguishable. Analyses reveal separation by Northern and Southern Hemispheres and between morphs within hemispheres, suggesting that the convergent “integrifolia” morphology arose separately in each hemisphere. This is the first study to use whole-genome sequencing to understand genetic divergence in giant kelp ecomorphs, identifying 83 potential genes under selection and providing novel insights about Macrocystis evolution that were not evident with previous genetic techniques. Future studies are needed to uncover the environmental forces driving local adaptation and presumed convergent evolution of these morphs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Characterizing Canopy Openness in Open Forests: Spherical Densiometer and Canopy Photography Are Equivalent but Less Sensitive than Direct Measurements of Solar Radiation

In forest ecosystems, canopy openness affects understory light availability, plant growth, and tree species recruitment, thus shaping future forest composition, structure, and functional diversity. Foresters must correctly and quickly measure canopy openness to meet their management objectives. To help guide the selection of an appropriate method for measuring canopy openness, we compared three common techniques that vary in cost, complexity, and time required for measurements and data processing: smartphone-based hemispherical photography, spherical densiometer measurements, and direct measurements of solar radiation (using AccuPAR ceptometer). We measured canopy openness using these three methods on 28 permanent forest health monitoring plots in pine-oak forests of the Central Pine Barrens of Long Island in New York State. By analysis of variance and regression analyses, we found the three methods (particularly densiometer and hemispherical photographs) yielded broadly equivalent and strongly positively correlated descriptions of canopy openness. The direct measurements of solar radiation seemed to have a greater potential to detect subtle variation in forest understory light. Forest managers may sufficiently characterize canopy openness using quick and cheap methods (e.g., spherical densiometers) and avoid larger costs of devices for direct light measurements (e.g., ceptometers) and the larger data processing times of hemispherical photography.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ring patterns generated by an expanding colloidal meniscus

The drop-and-dry is a common technique allowing for creation of periodic nanoparticle (NP) structures for sensing, photonics, catalysis, etc. However, the reproducibility and scalability of this approach for fabrication of NP-based structures faces serious challenges due to the complexity of the simple, at first glance, evaporation process. In this work we study the effect of the spatial confinement on the NP self-assembly under slow solvent evaporation, when the air-liquid-substrate contact line (CL) expands from the center towards the walls of a cylindrical cell, forming a toroid. Using in situ video monitoring of the stick-slip CL motion, we find regular hydrodynamic perturbations in the meniscus, and reveal fine details of the formation of quasiperiodic rings of close packed NP layers. We report that drying of the toroidal NP droplet has a number of important differences from drying of the classical hemispherical colloidal drops. In toroidal drops we observe linear-in-time average meniscus motion, in contrast to the hemispherical drops where the meniscus moves as a square root of time. While both droplet geometries produce NP ring patterns, the ring width for the toroidal drop decreases with increasing ring radius, while it decreases with decreasing the radius of the hemispherical drop. We suggest that free ligands are the main cause of the Marangoni instabilities driving the periodic vorticity in the meniscus. Finally, we show that the usually ignored contact line tension may yield a considerable contribution to the CL pinning causing the CL slip-stick motion and the ring formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Relative Importance of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss within the Response to Greenhouse Warming

Abstract The response to Antarctic sea ice loss within a coupled modeling framework is examined in comparison to the response to Arctic sea ice loss and within the context of general greenhouse warming. Sea ice loss responses are found to be linear (particularly in response to Antarctic or global sea ice loss) with respect to the degree of imposed perturbation and additive when perturbations are applied in hemispheres separately and concurrently. Globally, and in the tropical Pacific in particular, Antarctic sea ice loss plays a relatively larger role than Arctic sea ice loss in both the atmosphere and the ocean, within the parameters of our experiments. The pattern of response to Antarctic sea ice loss is also found to more closely resemble that of greenhouse warming, again particularly in the tropics. An extension to multiparameter pattern scaling is developed to include a scaling factor for Antarctic change in addition to those for tropical warming and Arctic sea ice loss. The decomposition is applied to the modeled response to Antarctic sea ice loss to break it down into component partial responses that scale with Antarctic, tropical, and Arctic changes. This reveals the aspects of the response that are directly related to Antarctic change, such as an equatorward intensification of tropical precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, and those that are modified via the induced changes in the tropics and Arctic, such as Northern Hemisphere temperature change. With this, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the role of each of these changes for the development of physical mechanisms of the response.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Huge heat anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean in recent years are not yet explained. Strong characteristic patterns in temperatures for upper layers of the ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 in the presence of global warming from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we show that the deep tropics are warming, although sharply modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating in the extratropics near 40°N and 40°–45°S but little heating near 20°N and 25°–30°S. The heating is most clearly manifested in zonal-mean ocean heat content and is evident in sea surface temperatures. The strongest heating is in the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects are small. Estimates are made of the contributions to heating of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric energy transports, surface fluxes of energy, and redistribution of energy by surface winds and ocean currents. The patterns of change are not directly related to TOA radiation but are evident in net surface energy fluxes and inferred ocean heat transports, underscoring their coupled origin. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in ocean jet streams and storm tracks are reflected in surface wind-driven ocean Ekman transports. As well as human-induced climate change, internal natural variability is likely in play. Hence, the atmosphere and ocean currents are systematically redistributing heat from global warming, profoundly affecting local climates. Significance Statement As the climate changes, it has been difficult to discern meaningful patterns. Distinctive patterns of change have occurred in the ocean when examined as zonal averages around latitude bands. Most excess heat from global warming resides in the ocean and, since 2005, has become focused into bands near 40°N and 40°S, with little net warming in the subtropics. The strongest warming is in the Southern Hemisphere, although sea surface temperatures have increased more in the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in the jet stream and storm tracks are primarily responsible along with corresponding changes in ocean currents. These changes are linked through surface exchanges of energy via heat, moisture, and wind stress.

Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospher↗

CORRIGENDUM to Figures S3-S4 of "Quasi-stationary Planetary Scale Waves in Modern Climate Models"

In addition to fixing the color-coding legend, the new figures plot Fourier phase in a more easily recognizable format: polar coordinates rather than Cartesian coordinates. The same phase data is displayed—indicating the position of the first ridge to the east of the prime meridian—but the new plots avoid unphysical jumps, e.g. from +180° to -180° as longitude increases across the International Dateline. A slight disadvantage of the new format is that each hemisphere requires a separate plot. The wavenumber-1 Northern Hemisphere phase plots give, in effect, a view from above the North Pole, with Eurasia at the top and North America at the bottom. Wavenumber-1 Southern Hemisphere plots give an analogous view from the South Pole. Plots for higher wavenumbers, however, wrap around at fractions of 360° (180°, 120°, ...) and cannot be interpreted as a geographical view.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Light Outcoupling from OLEDs Fabricated on Novel Low-Cost Patterned Plastic Substrates of Varying Periodicity

OLEDs continue to make strides in display applications, but their commercial utilization in solid-state lighting (SSL) is lagging. An ongoing challenge, in particular for manufacturing, is the need for enhanced efficiency and hence the necessity to increase in an inexpensive approach the extraction of the light generated inside the OLED into the forward (viewing) hemisphere. In conventional OLEDs fabricated on a transparent flat anode coated on glass, the external quantum efficiency (EQE) is only ~20%. About 50% of the light is lost to internal waveguiding in the high refractive index (RI) organic + ITO anode layers and to surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) at the organic/metal cathode interface. Another ~30% of the light is externally waveguided in the substrate to its edges. While extraction of the externally waveguided light is commonly addressed by adding a microlens array (MLA) or a scattering layer at the substrate’s air-side, light outcoupling increases by only ~1.6-1.7x (vs up to 2.5x in improving from ~20% to ~50%). The use of a hemispherical lens or an index matching fluid (IMF) at the substrate/photodetector (PD) interface increases the outcoupling by at least 2x; these approaches however, are not viable industrially, and even a MLA is sometimes undesirable due to its non-planar, scattering structure. In multi-stack tandem OLEDs, where the metal cathode is far from the emitting zone(s), the impact of photons loss to SPPs decreases. Our project addressed the ~50% loss to the internally waveguided light and SPPs. We evaluated OLEDs fabricated on patterned or planarized plastic substrates manufactured in a cost-effective approach compatible with a roll-to-roll (R2R) process. The OLEDs were either (i) patterned to various degrees depending on the pitch a and height or depth h of the pattern features or (ii) planar, with a pattern buried under a flat high RI planarization layer. We demonstrated that the outcoupling from green patterned OLEDs reaches ~50% by mitigating plasmon–related loss and internal waveguiding, even without the addition of a MLA, a hemispherical lens, or IMF. Simulations conducted in parallel with the experimental effort demonstrated how diffraction by conformally corrugated OLEDs increases the outcoupling to >60%. Structures with varying pitch values were also simulated indicating that combining domains of varying pitch could increase outcoupling to 55-60%. Experimentally, we additionally assessed the role a and h in determining not only the OLED efficiencies, but also their structural properties, i.e., the uniformity and conformality throughout the OLED stack. As planar OLEDs are preferred over corrugated devices, we studied different patterns in plastic substrates that were planarized by a high RI formulation. Planar green OLEDs on such structures showed enhanced efficiencies with EQEs larger than 60% with the addition of an IMF (to extract the substrate mode) at the substrate/Si PD interface. White OLEDs showed EQEs of 45.5%. Plastic substrates are currently less attractive than glass substrates due to drawbacks such as permeability to water vapor and oxygen, and in some cases thermal instability. Plastic substrates however, are flexible and easy to handle unlike thin flexible glass, and once transparent thin barrier films are available, they will become more attractive; they are already of interest in medical applications. Importantly, as it is easy to generate various patterns in different plastic materials, they provide excellent means for assessing and optimizing enhancing extracting structures. Such structures can also be transferred to glass substrates with some process modifications. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the project lie in the patterning of the extracting plastic substrates in an approach that is scalable to R2R manufacturing. R2R processes are of drastically lower-cost than batch or single-unit fabrication. The patterned plastic can be a part of an integrated substrate either plastic or glass, which includes also a MLA or a planar layer with embedded scattering particles, as well as a conductive metal mesh/electrode design. SSL is environmentally-friendly and as OLED SSL becomes more efficient it will reduce electricity consumption, and hence lighting cost, as well as produce less expensive attractive lighting fixtures. Our university-industry collaboration is hence of major benefit to the public as it demonstrates the feasibility of manufacturing optimized extracting substrates for highly efficient OLEDs for SSL in a future R2R process, which would drastically reduce the manufacturing cost and increase production in the USA. Moreover, newly developed methods by our team allow low-cost roll manufactured substrates to be transferred to flexible or rigid glass substrates, which solves the plastic substrate barrier issues, and when combined with device encapsulation will increase the OLEDs’ environmental stability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Final Targeting Strategy for the SDSS-IV APOGEE-2S Survey

APOGEE is a high-resolution (R ~ 22,000), near-infrared, multi-epoch, spectroscopic survey of the Milky Way. The second generation of the APOGEE project, APOGEE-2, includes an expansion of the survey to the Southern Hemisphere called APOGEE-2S. This expansion enabled APOGEE to perform a fully panoramic mapping of all of the main regions of the Milky Way; in particular, by operating in the H band, APOGEE is uniquely able to probe the dust-hidden inner regions of the Milky Way that are best accessed from the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we present the targeting strategy of APOGEE-2S, with special attention to documenting modifications to the original, previously published plan. The motivation for these changes is explained as well as an assessment of their effectiveness in achieving their intended scientific objective. In anticipation of this being the last paper detailing APOGEE targeting, we present an accounting of all such information complete through the end of the APOGEE-2S project; this includes several main survey programs dedicated to exploration of major stellar populations and regions of the Milky Way, as well as a full list of programs contributing to the APOGEE database through allocations of observing time by the Chilean National Time Allocation Committee and the Carnegie Institution for Science. This work was presented along with a companion article, Beaton et al. (2021), presenting the final target selection strategy adopted for APOGEE-2 in the Northern Hemisphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reprocessing Models for the Optical Light Curves of Hypervariable Quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project

We explore reprocessing models for a sample of 17 hypervariable quasars, taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping project, which all show coordinated optical luminosity hypervariability with amplitudes of factors ≳2 between 2014 and 2020. We develop and apply reprocessing models for quasar light curves in simple geometries that are likely to be representative of quasar inner environments. In addition to the commonly investigated thin-disk model, we include the thick-disk and hemisphere geometries. The thick-disk geometry could, for instance, represent a magnetically elevated disk, whereas the hemisphere model can be interpreted as a first-order approximation for any optically thick out-of-plane material caused by outflows/winds, warped/tilted disks, and so on. Of the 17 quasars in our sample, 11 are best-fitted by a hemisphere geometry, five are classified as thick disks, and both models fail for just one object. We highlight the successes and shortcomings of our thermal reprocessing models in case studies of four quasars that are representative of the sample. While reprocessing is unlikely to explain all of the variability that we observe in quasars, we present our classification scheme as a starting point for revealing the likely geometries of reprocessing for quasars in our sample and hypervariable quasars in general.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Understanding processes that control dust spatial distributions with global climate models and satellite observations

Dust aerosol is important in modulating the climate system at local and global scales, yet its spatiotemporal distributions simulated by global climate models (GCMs) are highly uncertain. In this study, we evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of dust extinction profiles and dust optical depth (DOD) simulated by the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and version 2 (CESM2), the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) against satellite retrievals from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). We find that CESM1, CESM2, and E3SMv1 underestimate dust transport to remote regions. E3SMv1 performs better than CESM1 and CESM2 in simulating dust transport and the northern hemispheric DOD due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust. CESM2 performs the worst in the Northern Hemisphere due to its lower dust emission than in the other two models but has a better dust simulation over the Southern Ocean due to the overestimation of dust emission in the Southern Hemisphere. DOD from MERRA-2 agrees well with CALIOP DOD in remote regions due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust and the assimilation of aerosol optical depth. The large disagreements in the dust extinction profiles and DOD among CALIOP, MODIS, and MISR retrievals make the model evaluation of dust spatial distributions challenging. Our study indicates the importance of representing dust emission, dry/wet deposition, and size distribution in GCMs in correctly simulating dust spatiotemporal distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Important role of stratospheric injection height for the distribution and radiative forcing of smoke aerosol from the 2019–2020 Australian wildfires

More than 1 Tg smoke aerosol was emitted into the atmosphere by the exceptional 2019–2020 southeastern Australian wildfires. Triggered by the extreme fire heat, several deep pyroconvective events carried the smoke directly into the stratosphere. Once there, smoke aerosol remained airborne considerably longer than in lower atmospheric layers. The thick plumes traveled eastward, thereby being distributed across the high and mid-latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, enhancing the atmospheric opacity. Due to the increased atmospheric lifetime of the smoke plume, its radiative effect increased compared to smoke that remains in lower altitudes. Global models describing aerosol-climate impacts lack adequate descriptions of the emission height of aerosols from intense wildfires. Here, we demonstrate, by a combination of aerosol-climate modeling and lidar observations, the importance of the representation of those high-altitude fire smoke layers for estimating the atmospheric energy budget. Through observation-based input into the simulations, the Australian wildfire emissions by pyroconvection are explicitly prescribed to the lower stratosphere in different scenarios. Based on our simulations, the 2019–2020 Australian fires caused a significant top-of-atmosphere (TOA) hemispheric instantaneous direct radiative forcing signal that reached a magnitude comparable to the radiative forcing induced by anthropogenic absorbing aerosol. Up to +0.50 W m -2 instantaneous direct radiative forcing was modeled at TOA, averaged for the Southern Hemisphere (+0.25 W m -2 globally) from January to March 2020 under all-sky conditions. At the surface, on the other hand, an instantaneous solar radiative forcing of up to -0.81 W m -2 was found for clear-sky conditions, with the respective estimates depending on the model configuration and subject to the model uncertainties in the smoke optical properties. Since extreme wildfires are expected to occur more frequently in the rapidly changing climate, our findings suggest that high-altitude wildfire plumes must be adequately considered in climate projections in order to obtain reasonable estimates of atmospheric energy budget changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Indirect climate impacts of the Hunga eruption

Injection of sulfur and water vapour by the Hunga volcanic eruption significantly altered chemical composition and radiative budget of the stratosphere. Yet, whether the eruption could also affect surface climate, especially via indirect pathways, remains poorly understood. Here we investigate these effects using large ensembles of simulations with the CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system model, incorporating interactive chemistry and aerosols in both coupled ocean and atmosphere-only configurations. We find some statistically significant extratropical regional climate responses to the eruption driven by circulation changes; these are partially linked to the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its associated teleconnections, and to perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex in both hemispheres. The stratospheric anomalies affect surface climate through modulating the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere (up to three boreal winters following the eruption) and the Southern Annular Mode in the Southern Hemisphere in late 2023. The latter is partly related to a concurrent reduction in Antarctic ozone, as increased stratospheric aerosols and water vapor reach the polar vortex. Our study suggests that the eruption could have had a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and discusses the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur. However, the results also highlight that this forcing is relatively weak compared to interannual variability, and is subject to model uncertainties in the representation of key processes. More research is thus needed before definitive statements on the role of the eruption in contributing to surface climate and weather events in the following years are made.

Geosciences↗

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗

A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems

Abstract. Two-way coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere is recognized as an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and can open windows of opportunity for improved forecasts. Model biases can, however, lead to a poor representation of such coupling processes; drifts in a model's circulation related to model biases, resolution, and parameterizations have the potential to feed back on the circulation and affect stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We introduce a set of diagnostics using readily available data that can be used to reveal these biases and then apply these diagnostics to 22 S2S forecast systems. In the Northern Hemisphere, nearly all S2S forecast systems underestimate the strength of the observed upward coupling from the troposphere to the stratosphere, downward coupling within the stratosphere, and the persistence of lower-stratospheric temperature anomalies. While downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is well represented in the multi-model ensemble mean, there is substantial intermodel spread likely related to how well each model represents tropospheric stationary waves. In the Southern Hemisphere, the stratospheric vortex is oversensitive to upward-propagating wave flux in the forecast systems. Forecast systems generally overestimate the strength of downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere, even as most underestimate the radiative persistence in the lower stratosphere. In both hemispheres, models with higher lids and a better representation of tropospheric quasi-stationary waves generally perform better at simulating these coupling processes.

Garfinkel, Chaim I. (ORCID:000000017258666X)↗

Flattop-HEU Benchmark Reevaluation Summary

The Flattop critical assembly was first constructed in the 1950’s at Los Alamos National Laboratory as a follow-on to the Topsy experiment. Flattop is composed of a sphere of special nuclear material (SNM) surrounded by a thick spherical reflector made of natural uranium (NU). Two SNM cores currently exist: a highly-enriched-uranium (HEU) core and a plutonium core. The reflector is composed of three parts: a stationary hemisphere and two movable quarter spheres. For fine reactivity control, there are three control rods of NU that are inserted into the stationary hemisphere from underneath the assembly. The final components that allow for reactivity adjustment are the glory hole pieces, mass adjustment buttons, and hemispherical caps. These pieces can be loaded in various configurations to change the available reactivity loaded in the system.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to in-creased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. Furthermore, the models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific sector subtropical jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗