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At least 127 records · Page 7

LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update: Jamaica After Hurricane Melissa (V1)

During a natural disaster such as Hurricane Melissa, understanding where people are located is critical for situational awareness, operational planning and humanitarian support and consequence assessment. Traditional population datasets focus on mapping populations based on residential, or "business-as-usual" scenarios. However, natural disasters can create disruptions in daily routines of population in addition to the magnitude of the population displacement, depending on the type, duration, context, and location of the event. The Geospatial Science and Human Security Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) produced this latest LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update for Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa, a category 5 hurricane that made landfall on Jamaica on October 28 2025. This Rapid Population Update captures the immediate population displacement following the hurricane using a combination of open-source building damage assessment data from Microsoft, flood exposure data from the Global Flood Monitoring service, reported population displacement information, and humanitarian shelter locations from the Jamaican Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management and the underlying LandScan Mosaic Jamaica as a base population.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NOAA/National Hurricane and Experimental Meteorological Laboratory

National Hurricane and Experimental Meteorological Laboratory (NHEML) research programs concentrate on two atmospheric phenomena of the tropical troposphere: hurricanes and cumulus convection, together with the atmospheric environments in which they occur and with which they interact. These programs include basic research in the description of these phenomena and applied research in their prediction and potential beneficial modification. NHEML is partitioned into four working groups. Two important and logical parts of the research programs are the experimental program in hurricane modification (STORMFURY) and the program in cumulus modification (FACE). The ultimate goal of STORMFURY is the reduction of the maximum winds associated with the eyewall of hurricanes; the goal of FACE is to acquire a thorough understanding of cumulus cloud behavior that will enable NHEML to increase precipitation from cumulus clouds. The operational structure of NHEML and related agencies are presented.

Source record↗

The use of satellite estimates of rainfall in the initialization of a mesoscale hurricane model

The use of rainfall rate data obtained from satellites to improve the initial specification of the hurricane circulation is discussed with particular reference to the techniques for incorporating rainfall data into high-resolution hurricane models. The variation of latent heating in a numerical model of a steady state tropical cyclone is considered to ascertain what features of the storm motion can be deduced from a given field of latent heat release. A real-data example involving a mesoscale model for hurricane Eloise (1975) has demonstrated that satellite measurements of rainfall may be beneficial to numerical hurricane prediction.

Fiorino, M.↗

On the global circulation and the hurricane system of the Jovian atmosphere

An argument is made to support the proposal that Jupiter's red spot and the white and brown ovals are hurricanes or cyclones. Against the background of a convectively unstable troposphere, the general condition exists for the formation of hurricanes. The energy Jupiter emits must be transported upwards through the troposphere. If that transport is accelerated by the prevailing upward motions in the solar driven multicellular meridional circulation, eastward jets develop such as observed in the l region. But if that vertical transport is impeded by the prevailing downward motions in the meridional circulation, the atmosphere reacts and tends to maintain the process through the development of hurricanes. Dynamically induced by solar differential heating, an ordered latitudinal structure with alternating stability and instability is impressed on the troposphere to form alternating zonal strata where hurricanes are forbidden and permitted, respectively.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Mesoscale damage patterns of Hurricane Frederic in relation to enhanced SMS imagery

An F-scale analysis of Hurricane Frederic (September 12 and 13, 1979) was performed in order to determine the structural damage patterns attributed to the storm. Enhanced SMS imagery revealed patterns of mesoscale features as well as features related to the shielding effects of trees and the grouping effect of structures. The scatter in estimating the damage scale was + or - 1 F-scale. It is shown that discrepancies in recorded wind speed and the estimated wind-speed from the F-scale are the result of different damage mechanisms of hurricane and tornado winds. Radar echoes revealed that the structure of Hurricane Frederic changed from an axisymmetric center to an instantaneous center of rotation. Finally, it is suggested that major hurricane wind and water damage be investigated in greater detail by aerial photography, damage vector mapping, and ground surveys.

Fujita, T. T.↗

Prediction of dominant wave properties ahead of hurricanes

A method is proposed for predicting properties of dominant waves in the forward region of hurricanes where the waves are found to propagate predominantly in the direction of hurricane forward travel. An extended fetch concept is used in which each wave component is exposed to the action of wind over a fetch length that is determined by wave group speed, hurricane forward speed, and location with respect to eye. Maximum extended fetches are found to the right of the eye (with respect to direction of hurricane travel) in the northern hemisphere. The method correctly predicts dominant wave frequencies and significant wave heights. The prediction method utilizes recently developed concepts in wave generation and energy transfer among wave spectral components; the predicted values are compared favorably with observations.

Shemdin, O. H.↗

Stereoscopic observations of hurricanes and tornadic thunderstorms from geosynchronous satellites

Results are presented which show the application of GOES stereoscopy to the investigation of hurricanes and tornadic thunderstorms. Stereo cloud top height contour maps were constructed to observe the structural evolution of two hurricanes, Frederic on September 12, 1979 and Allen on August 8, 1980, and a tornadic thunderstorm complex over Oklahoma on May 2-3, 1979. Stereo height contours of Hurricane Allen reveal a very intense and symmetric storm with a circular shaped central dense overcast with an average height of 16.5 km. Contours of Hurricane Frederic reveal a preferred region for convection with an explosive exhaust tower attaining a maximum height of 17.8 km. Also presented is a technique for estimating tropical cyclone intensity using GOES stereo height and IR temperature information. Results indicate vertical motions ranging from 4.4 m/s for a moderate storm to 7.7 m/s for an intense storm.

Mack, R.↗

Conjecture about a hurricane system in the Jovian atmosphere

Arguments are presented in support of the hypothesis that the Great Red Spot (GRS) of Jupiter is a giant hurricane, and that the same decription might apply to the smaller vortices such as the white and brown ovals (barges) on the surface of Jupiter. Estimates of the spin-down times constants for the white and brown oval vortices, indicate that the motions must be sustained by the continued release of internal energy. In analogy with the CISK mechanism for terrestrial hurricanes, transport of water vapor is identified as a possible latent energy source. On the basis of the large size and long life time of the GRS, (indicating extreme depth), it is suggested that the hurricane GRS hurricane may have been induced by meteor impact. Voyager 1 images of the GRS are provided.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Hurricane structure and wind fields from stereoscopic and infrared satellite observations and radar data

Hurricane cloud and precipitation structure have been studied by means of IR and stereoscopic visual satellite data from synchronized scanning GOES-East and -West, in combination with ground-based radar data for Hurricane Frederico and time-composited airborne radar data for Hurricane Allen. It is noted that stereoscopically measured cloudtop height in these hurricanes is not as closely correlated to radar reflectivity at lower levels as it is in intense thunderstorms over land. This and other results obtained imply that satellite precipitation estimation techniques for tropical cyclones that are based on cloudtop measurements will not be accurate with respect to time and place scales that are less than several hours and a few hundred km, respectively.

Hasler, A. F.↗

On the Long-Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960s than thereafter, and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature are statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of the 4- and 10-yr moving averages, the two are found to be strongly associated (when temperature leads by 6 yr). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now upward, beginning about the mid 1980s, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, beginning near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Hurricane Directional Wave Spectrum Spatial Variation in the Open Ocean

The sea surface directional wave spectrum was measured for the first time in all quadrants of a hurricane in open water using the NASA airborne scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the NOAA WP-3D hurricane hunter aircraft at 1.5 km height. The SRA measures the energetic portion of the directional wave spectrum by generating a topographic map of the sea surface. At 8 Hz, the SRA sweeps a radar beam of 1 deg half-power width (two-way) across the aircraft ground track over a swath equal to 0. 8 of the aircraft height, simultaneously measuring the backscattered power at its 36 GHz (8.3 mm) operating frequency and the range to the sea surface at 64 positions. These slant ranges are multiplied by the cosine of the incidence angles to determine the vertical distances from the aircraft to the sea surface. Subtracting these distances from the aircraft height produces the sea surface elevation map. The sea surface topography is interpolated to a uniform grid, transformed by a two-dimensional FFT, and Doppler corrected. The data presented were acquired on 24 August 1998 when hurricane Bonnie was east of the Bahamas and moving slowly to the north. Wave heights up to 18 m were observed and the spatial variation of the wave field was dramatic. The dominant waves generally propagated at significant angles to the downwind direction and at times there were wave fields traveling at right angles to each other. The NOAA aircraft spent over five hours within 180 km of the hurricane Bonnie eye, and made five eye penetrations. A 2-minute animation of the directional wave spectrum spatial variation over this period will be shown.

Wright, C. W.↗

Hurricane Bonnie Landfalling Observed from ER-2 Doppler Radar on 26 August 1998 During CAMEX-3

The NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft collected remote sensing and in situ data sets from Hurricane Bonnie (23, 24, and 26 August 1998) during the Convection And Moisture Experimental-3 (CAMEX-3). Bonnie was an exceptional case where NASA and NOAA had five aircraft sampling both upper levels and lower altitudes. The ER-2 was instrumented with the ER-2 Doppler XBand radar (EDOP) and several radiometers ranging from visible to lower frequency microwaves. EDOP is a fixed dual-beam radar (nadir and forward-looking beams) which allows computation of both vertical and alongtrack horizontal winds. The hurricane secondary circulation is typically difficult to measure at upper levels due to aircraft altitude limitations and sensitivity of the lower altitude airborne radars. EDOP is in principle, well suited to measure these components of the wind. When ER-2 flies across the approximate center of the hurricane circulation, the along-track winds derived from EDOP, are approximately equal to the hurricane radial flow comprising the secondary circulation. Assuming that the hydrometeor fallspeeds can be approximated, the radial and vertical wind components of the secondary circulation can be measured. Since the hydrometeor motions can be estimated with more confidence in the higher altitude ice regions (i.e., graupel and mixed phase are complicated at lower altitudes), the derived radial and vertical winds have higher accuracy at upper levels. On the other hand, the reflectivities are extremely low at higher altitudes, resulting in fewer Doppler velocity estimates.

Heymsfield, G. M.↗

Open Ocean and Landfalling Hurricane Directional Wave Spectra from a Scanning Radar Altimeter

The sea surface directional wave spectrum was measured for the first time in all quadrants of a hurricane in open water using the NASA airborne scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WP-3D hurricane research aircraft at 1.5 km height. The open-ocean data were acquired on 24 August 1998 when Bonnie, a large category 3 hurricane, was east of the Bahamas and moving about 5 meters per second toward 330. The NOAA aircraft spent over five hours within 180 km of the hurricane Bonnie eye and made five eye penetrations. Individual waves with heights up to 18 m were observed and the spatial variation of the wave field was dramatic. The dominant waves generally propagated at significant angles to the downwind direction. At some positions there were three different wave fields of comparable energy crossing each other. On 26 August 1998, the SRA documented the wave spectrum spatial variation while Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC.

Wright, C. Wayne↗

Hurricane Directional Wave Spectrum Spatial Variation in the Open Ocean and at Landfall

The sea surface directional wave spectrum was measured for the first time in all quadrants of a hurricane in open water using the NASA airborne scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the NOAA WP-3D hurricane hunter aircraft at 1.5 km height. The SRA measures the energetic portion of the directional wave spectrum by generating a topographic map of the sea surface. At 8 Hz, the SRA sweeps a radar beam of 1' half-power width (two-way) across the aircraft ground track over a swath equal to 0.8 of the aircraft height, simultaneously measuring the backscattered power at its 36 GHz (8.3 mm) operating frequency and the range to the sea surface at 64 positions. These slant ranges are multiplied by the cosine of the off-nadir angles to determine the vertical distances from the aircraft to the sea surface. Subtracting these distances from the aircraft height produces the sea surface elevation map. The sea surface topography is interpolated to a uniform grid, transformed by a two dimensional FFT, and Doppler corrected. The open-ocean data were acquired on 24 August 1998 when hurricane Bonnie was east of the Bahamas and moving toward 330 deg at about 5 m/s. Individual waves up to 18 m height were observed and the spatial variation of the wave field was dramatic. The dominant waves generally propagated at significant angles to the downwind direction. At some positions there were three different wave fields of comparable energy crossing each other. The NOAA aircraft spent over five hours within 180 km of the eye, and made five eye penetrations. On 26 August 1998, the NOAA aircraft flew at 2.2 km height when hurricane Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC, documenting the directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The aircraft flight lines included segments near and along the shoreline as well as far offshore. Animations of the directional wave spectrum spatial variation along the aircraft tracks on the two flights will be presented using a 100: 1 time compression.

Walsh, Edward J.↗

Improved Use of Satellite Imagery to Forecast Hurricanes

This project tested a novel method that uses satellite imagery to correct phase errors in the initial state for numerical weather prediction, applied to hurricane forecasts. The system was tested on hurricanes Guillermo (1997), Felicia (1997) and Iniki (1992). We compared the performance of the system with and without phase correction to a procedure that uses bogus data in the initial state, similar to current operational procedures. The phase correction keeps the hurricane on track in the analysis and is far superior to a system without phase correction. Compared to operational procedure, phase correction generates somewhat worse 3-day forecast of the hurricane track, but better forecast of intensity. It is believed that the phase correction module would work best in the context of 4-dimensional variational data assimilation. Very little modification to 4DVar would be required.

Louis, Jean-Francois↗

Effects of Convective Asymmetries on Hurricane Intensity: A Numerical Study

The influence of the uniform large-scale flow, beta effect, and vertical shear of the environmental flow on hurricane intensity is investigated in the context of the induced convective or potential vorticity asymmetries with a hydrostatic primitive equation hurricane model. In agreement with the previous studies, imposing of one of these environmental effects can substantially weaken the simulated tropical cyclones. In response t o the environmental influence, significant asymmetries develop with a structure similar to the spiral bands in real hurricanes, which are dominated by wavenumber-one components. The tendencies of the mean radial, azimuthal winds and temperature associated with the environment-induced convective asymmetries are evaluated respectively. The resulting asymmetries can effectively reduce hurricane intensity by directly producing the negative tendency of the mean tangential wind in the vicinity of the radius of maximum wind, and by weakening the mean radial circulation. The reduction effects are closely associated with the spiral structure of the induced asymmetries. The time lag observed between the imposition of the environmental influence and the resulting rise in the minimum central pressure is the time required for developing the spiral structure. This study also confirms the axisymmetrization process associated with the induced wavenumber-one components of potential vorticity asymmetries, but it exists only within the radius of maximum wind.

Wu, Liguang↗

Design Study of a Synthetic Thinned Aperture Radiometer for Hurricane Impact Prediction

The principle accomplishments involve a conceptual design of an airborne Hurricane Imaging (microwave) Radiometer (HiRad) instrument for use in operational hurricane surveillance. The basis of the HiRad design is the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) that has successfully measured surface wind speed and rain rate in hurricanes from the NOAA Hurricane Research Division s P-3 aircraft. Unlike the SFMR that views only at nadir, the HiRad provides wide-swath measurements between +/- 45 deg. in incidence angle with a spot-beam spatial resolution of approximately 1-3 km. The system operates at four equally spaced frequency channels that cover a range between 4 GHz and 6 GHz. The final report consists of two parts. Part 1 is a reprint of a conference proceeding presented at the 2002 International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium and authored by the principle members of the HiRad design team. Part 2 is a summary of the MMIC receiver design developed to support the HiRad sensor.

Ruf, Christopher S.↗

Microphysical Characterization of Ice in Hurricane Erin for Wideband Passive Microwave Comparisons

In order to better understand the characteristics of frozen hydrometeors in hurricane systems, computed brightness temperatures were compared with observations of Hurricane Erin from CAMEX-4 radiometers on the ER-2 aircraft. These wideband observations ranged from 10.7 to 183 plus or minus 10 GHz. In order to initialize the cloud profiles used in the radiative transfer calculations, radar reflectivities from an ER-2 instrument were converted to mass contents at specified height levels. Dropsonde data from the ER-2 and modeled Hurricane Andrew data were used to generate profiles of temperature, pressure, and relative humidity and to provide surface wind speed and ocean temperature. Four different ice (size and density) parameterizations were used to compute brightness temperature values. The comparisons between the calculated and observed brightness temperatures show that in general the Grenfell and Warren particle size distribution does the best job of matching the observations for most of the high frequencies. These high frequencies (greater than or equal to 85 GHz) are particularly sensitive to frozen particles. The Sehkon and Srivastava particle size distribution produced brightness temperatures that were too cold in most cases. On the other hand, the fluffy snow particle parameterizations with and without a melting layer produced brightness temperatures that were much warmer than the observations at these high frequencies. All low frequency calculations track the observations well except in the eye of Hurricane Erin where the surface wind speed and/or near surface temperatures were not properly adjusted to warm the brightness temperature calculations to values closer to the observations. Overall, this work shows that selecting a proper ice particle parameterization can be difficult and additional in situ measurements are needed to define appropriate parameterizations.

Skofronick-Jackson, G.↗