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At least 127 records · Page 7

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Creating a high energy alert system for the HAWC gamma ray observatory

One of the greatest mysteries in astrophysics is exactly how Cosmic Rays (CRs) are accelerated up to extremely high energies within our galaxy. The highest-energy galactic CRs are associated with gamma rays at ~100 TeV. Hadronic models of possible CR accelerators, including supernova remnants and pulsars, require the production of both gamma rays and neutrinos at these sources. Searching for coincidences between neutrino and the highest energy gamma ray observations can help confirm these theories. The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory is a ground based gamma ray observatory located in Puebla, Mexico. HAWC is able to detect gamma rays with energies greater than 100 TeV. It has a wide field of view and a 95% duty cycle, making it ideal for these types of coincidence searches. This work aims to create a high energy alert system for HAWC, sending out an alert to other experiments for high-energy gamma ray events it sees.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Creating a High Energy Alert System for the HAWC Gamma Ray Observatory [Slides]

One of the greatest mysteries in astrophysics is exactly how Cosmic Rays (CRs) are accelerated up to extremely high energies within our galaxy. Hadronic models of possible CR accelerators, including supernova remnants and pulsars, require the production of both gamma rays and neutrinos at these sources. Searching for coincidences between neutrino and the highest energy gamma ray observations can help confirm these theories. The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory is a ground based gamma ray observatory located at 4100m in Puebla, Mexico. HAWC is able to detect gamma rays with energies greater than 100 TeV, has a wide field of view, and a 95% duty cycle, making it ideal for these types of coincidence searches. This work aims to create a high energy alert system for HAWC, sending out an alert to other experiments for gamma ray events it sees above 56 TeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗

Investigation of Causal Relationships of the Cross‐Scale Wave Coupling Through Information Theoretical Approach

On 2015 October 2, MMS spacecraft observed an electron micro-injection event near the southern hemispheric high-altitude cusp, coinciding with intense wave activity across several frequency bands. Here, we investigated the MMS magnetic field and plasma during this event to explore cross-scale coupling among the wave modes. Employing the Hilbert-Huang transform, we perform an empirical mode decomposition to extract frequencies and amplitudes of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). In this analysis, we establish both linear and nonlinear relationships and examine the information transfer between the IMFs. Notably, the transfer entropy suggests that high frequency ion cyclotron waves may be driven by the mirror mode structures. Our case study effectively demonstrates the utility of the information theory based tools for studying cross-scale wave coupling phenomena.

Rivera, Elmer C. [Andrews University, Berrien Spri↗

A Phenomenological Thermal Spray Wall Interaction Modeling Framework Applied to a High Temperature Ignition Assistant Device

Airborne compression ignition engines must operate with reliable ignition systems to achieve proper ignition at every cycle, particularly at high altitudes. Glow-plug-based ignition-assistant (IA) devices can provide the necessary energy to preheat the fuel and ensure ignitability of the fuel-air mixture. Ignitability of liquid sprays can be facilitated via direct impingement onto the hot IA surface, however this comes with adverse effects on the IA durability. Therefore, optimizing an IA’s design requires detailed understanding of the physics of fuel spray impingement of superheated surfaces. While spray impingement on relatively low wall temperatures has been extensively studied and appropriate numerical models have been proposed through the years, fundamental understanding of high-speed liquid spray impingement on superheated walls is still elusive. This work aims to formulate a phenomenological thermal spray-wall interaction framework for modeling the film-boiling-induced heat transfer, atomization, and dispersion of fuel spray droplets impinging onto a superheated IA device. A qualitative comparison of the new phenomenological model is performed against optical experiments from the literature of an F-24 fuel spray injected onto an IA device located 12 mm away from the injector tip. The temperature of the IA was set at 1400 K. The fuel injection pressure was 400 bar, while the ambient gas pressure and temperature were 30 bar and 800 K, respectively. The performance of the phenomenological model is evaluated in comparison with two other state-of-art models from the literature. A qualitative analysis of the different spray and fuel-air mixture characteristics is performed to outline the differences in the predictions offered by the new phenomenological model and the two state-of-art spray-wall interaction models.

droplet dispersion↗

On the Radiation Effects of Strontium Ions on Satellite Solar Cells in Low Earth Orbits

This study focuses on the radiation effects 19 of Sr + ions—generated from high-altitude nuclear explosions (HANE)—on satellite solar cells in low-Earth orbits (LEO). Along four selected satellite orbits, ion fluences are sampled inside the evolving Sr + distributions for days, determined from our newly developed HANE environment model. These fluences, along with the help of radiation transport codes including the MULASSIS and SRIM models, enable us to quantify the radiation damages by determining the values of total ionizing doses and the equivalent 1 MeV electron fluences for displacement damages. Comparing the dose values to existing experimental data, we conclude that HANE-generated Sr + ions have limited darkening effects to quartz solar cell coverglasses in LEO with apogees of 100s to 1000 km. In addition, with the extremely high equivalent fluences, we also conclude that these Sr+ ions may cause severe or even fatal displacement damage to exposed solar photovoltaic (PV) cells on satellites in LEO. The radiation effects of Sr + ions are much less significant for the orbits with high apogees beyond ten thousand km. We also conducted model parameter sensitivity studies on the charge exchange cross-sections, neutral atmosphere density profiles and explosion local time positions, and the above conclusions stay unchanged. The methodology developed in this study can be extended to other HANE-generated heavy ion species in the future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Climatology of the Vertical Profiles of Polarimetric Radar Variables and Retrieved Microphysical Parameters in Continental/Tropical MCSs and Landfalling Hurricanes

Most existing cloud models tend to overestimate the size of cloud ice particles and underestimate their concentration. This emphasizes the need to provide a reliable observational reference to optimize cloud model performance, particularly in areas of high concentration of ice at high altitudes. The dual-polarization radars give the community a unique opportunity to quantify cloud ice with a good accuracy using polarimetric radar retrievals. Here, in this study, we utilize the network of operational WSR-88D radars to build a climatology of the vertical profiles of radar variables, such as radar reflectivity Z, differential reflectivity Z DR , and specific differential phase K DP as well as the radar-retrieved vertical profiles of ice water content (IWC) above the melting layer and liquid water content below it, mean volume diameter D m , and total number concentration N t of ice and liquid particles. Such climatology was created for continental/marine mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and tropical cyclones including hurricanes. The dataset includes 13 continental MCSs, 10 marine MCSs, and 11 tropical cyclones. Separate statistics of the “background” vertical profiles and the ones associated with high IWC aloft have been obtained in the course of this study. It is shown that continental MCSs exhibit larger size of ice in lower concentration aloft compared to the marine MCSs and especially tropical cyclones/hurricanes. A combination of high KDP and low Z aloft signifies lower D m , higher N t , and often substantial IWC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Method for Coupled Electromagnetic and Circuit Simulations to Evaluate Surge Arrester Performance in Protecting Equipment Against E1 HEMP

Surge arrester behavioral modeling for realistic systems embedded in an E1 high-altitude electromagnetic pulse environment inherently encompasses three interconnected complications: (1) the need to account for signal propagation across two domains, electromagnetics and electrical; (2) the need to include both linear and nonlinear circuit components in the analysis; and (3) the need to understand that the over-current and over-voltage mitigation performance is dependent not only on the properties of the surge arrester and protected load but also on the topology of the overall electrical network. This study presents a framework to address these challenges in a systematic manner to consider the effectiveness of protective measures for a common class of equipment in power generation facilities. Full-wave simulations were carried out to derive circuit-domain (i.e., lumped element–based) equivalent models for the excitation waveform and the physical components of the system. Then, these equivalent models were imported to a circuit solver and combined with a high-frequency surge arrester model to evaluate mitigation performance. The methodology outlined is general enough such that it can be applied for other electromagnetic interference problems that involve E2/E3 HEMP or microwave emissions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Solid State Transformer Architecture and Control Compensation for Common Mode Currents

A high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) or similar geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) has the potential to impact the operation of large-scale electric power grids. By introducing low-frequency common-mode (CM) currents, these events can degrade the performance of critical system components, such as large power transformers by introducing CM currents which can lead to magnetic saturation of the transformer core. In this work, a solid-state transformer (SST) is developed to replace susceptible equipment and improve grid resiliency by safely absorbing these CM disturbances. This device will be referred to as a common-mode solid-state transformer (CM-SST). An SST architecture based on a four-legged AC/DC converter is developed. This architecture enables active control of CM signals without disturbing the AC voltages or the real and reactive power delivery capabilities. A system-level model of this architecture is created, and time-domain simulations are performed to evaluate the SST’s performance in response to simulated CM disturbances. A control strategy for mitigating CM current is also investigated. Hamiltonian surface shaping and power flow control (HSSPFC) is used to design a nonlinear controller for the SST’s output inverter. The objectives of the controller are to suppress CM-induced AC current offsets and regulate AC currents to desired setpoints. Nonlinear system analysis is applied to design and validate the controller. Two cases are tested: (a) the proposed four-leg inverter and (b) a standard three-leg inverter. The results show that the proposed controller rapidly mitigates CM disturbances while maintaining high-quality AC current waveforms in the four-leg configuration. Finally, the hardware performance of an SST prototype is evaluated. In particular, the ability of the SST to safely redirect and absorb CM currents is demonstrated, showing how it can protect neighboring conventional transformers in the system. The study confirms that appropriate control laws allow the SST to protect both itself and adjacent transformers during a HEMP or GMD event.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Space and Time Dynamics of Transpiration in the East River Watershed: Biotic and Abiotic Controls

Alpine forests have important impacts on water resources by affecting how much of the precipitation that falls on a watershed is routed to streamflow or returned to the atmosphere as transpiration – so-called “green water”. In many of the high-altitude watersheds that supply critical water resources to the western US, it remains a challenge to predict how much water forests will utilize limiting the ability to predict both short and long term information on downstream water resources. The uncertainty emerges because transpiration varies between tree species, across landscapes and over time in ways that cannot readily be predicted from physically-based models for evaporation. In this project, we utilized a technique called sap flux to measure the rate of water use for three common species of fir, spruce and aspen distributed across a hillslope in the East River Watershed from 2019-2021. We also made ~weekly measurements of the concentration of stable isotopic tracers in transpiration to understand not only how much water was being used but whether it originated from summer rain or snowmelt. Firstly, our results show that the species tend to use similar amounts of total water but they achieve this similar cumulative water flux both by using water at different times of the year and by using different water sources. This shows the importance of including species-level information into models used to make seasonal streamflow predictions. Secondly, our results show that trees lower on the hillslope use older waters all through the summer whereas trees higher on the hillslope rely more heavily on recent summer rain. This means trees lower on the hillslope are less sensitive to year-to-year changes in summer climate. Lastly, we found that sites with dense forest stands displayed the largest amounts of year-to-year changes in transpiration and thus these high localized spots in the watershed are the primary drivers of changes in “green water” use. The results provide an unprecedented spatial and temporal picture of forest water use that confirms a number of fundamental hypotheses on hillslope ecohydrology that had not previously been tested against observations. Predictions of streamflow that will benefit from this work are highly valuable for agriculture management, flood control and ecological restoration efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low-Level Liquid-Bearing Clouds Contribute to Seasonal Lower Atmosphere Stability and Surface Energy Forcing over a High-Mountain Watershed Environment

Measurements of atmospheric structure and surface energy budgets distributed along a high-altitude moun tain watershed environment near Crested Butte, Colorado, from two separate, but coordinated, field campaigns, Surface Atmosphere Integrated field Laboratory (SAIL) and Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH), are analyzed. This study identifies similarities and differences in how clouds influence the radiative budget over one snow-free summer season (2022) and two snow-covered seasons (2021/22; 2022/23) for this alpine location. A relationship between lower-tropospheric stability stratification and longwave radiative flux from the presence or absence of clouds is identified. When low clouds persisted, often with signatures of supercooled liquid in win ter, the lower troposphere experienced weaker stability, while radiatively clear skies that are less likely to be influenced by liquid droplets were associated with appreciably stronger lower-tropospheric stratification. Corresponding surface turbu lent heat fluxes partitioned differently based upon the cloud–stability stratification regime derived from early morning radiosounding profiles. Combined with the differences in the radiative budget largely resulting from dramatic seasonal dif ferences in surface albedo, the lower atmosphere stratification, surface energy budget, and near-surface thermodynamics are shown to be modified by the effective longwave radiative forcing of clouds. The diurnal evolution of thermodynamics and surface energy components varied depending on the early morning stratification state. Thus, the importance of quies cent versus synoptically active large-scale meteorology is hypothesized as a critical forcing for cloud properties and associ ated surface energy budget variations. The physical relationships between clouds, radiation, and stratification can provide a useful suite of metrics for process understanding and to evaluate numerical models in such an undersampled, highly com plex terrain environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Eel Pulsar Wind Nebula: A PeVatron-candidate Origin for HAWC J1826-128 and HESS J182-130

HAWC J1826–128 is one of the brightest Galactic TeV γ-ray sources detected by the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory, with photon energies extending up to nearly ~100 TeV. This HAWC source spatially coincides with the H.E.S.S. TeV source HESS J1826–130 and the "Eel" pulsar wind nebula (PWN), which is associated with the GeV pulsar PSR J1826–1256. In the X-ray band, Chandra and XMM-Newton revealed that the Eel PWN is composed of both a compact nebula (~15'') and diffuse X-ray emission (~6' × 2') extending away from the pulsar. Our NuSTAR observation detected hard X-ray emission from the compact PWN up to ~20 keV and evidence of the synchrotron burn-off effect. In addition to the spatial coincidence between HESS J1826–130 and the diffuse X-ray PWN, our multiwavelength spectral energy distribution (SED) analysis using X-ray and γ-ray data establishes a leptonic origin of the TeV emission associated with the Eel PWN. Furthermore, our evolutionary PWN SED model suggests (1) a low PWN B-field of ~1 μG, (2) a significantly younger pulsar age (t ~ 5.7 kyr) than the characteristic age (τ = 14.4 kyr), and (3) a maximum electron energy of ${E}_{\max }=2$ PeV. The low B-field, as well as the putative supersonic motion of the pulsar, may account for the asymmetric morphology of the diffuse X-ray emission. Our results suggest that the Eel PWN may be a leptonic PeVatron particle accelerator powered by the ~6 kyr old pulsar PSR J1826–1256 with a spin-down power of 3.6 × 10 36 erg s –1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for Gamma-Ray and Neutrino Coincidences Using HAWC and ANTARES Data

In the quest for high-energy neutrino sources, the Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network has implemented a new search by combining data from the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory and the Astronomy with a Neutrino Telescope and Abyss environmental RESearch (ANTARES) neutrino telescope. Using the same analysis strategy as in a previous detector combination of HAWC and IceCube data, we perform a search for coincidences in HAWC and ANTARES events that are below the threshold for sending public alerts in each individual detector. Data were collected between 2015 July and 2020 February with a live time of 4.39 yr. Over this time period, three coincident events with an estimated false-alarm rate of <1 coincidence per year were found. This number is consistent with background expectations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

HAWC Detection of a TeV Halo Candidate Surrounding a Radio-quiet Pulsar

Extended very-high-energy (VHE; 0.1–100 TeV) γ-ray emission has been observed around several middle-aged pulsars and referred to as "TeV halos." Their formation mechanism remains under debate. It is also unknown whether they are ubiquitous or related to a certain subgroup of pulsars. With 2321 days of observation, the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Gamma-Ray Observatory detected VHE γ-ray emission at the location of the radio-quiet pulsar PSR J0359+5414 with >6σ significance. By performing likelihood tests with different spectral and spatial models and comparing the TeV spectrum with multiwavelength observations of nearby sources, we show that this excess is consistent with a TeV halo associated with PSR J0359+5414, though future observation of HAWC and multiwavelength follow-ups are needed to confirm this nature. This new halo candidate is located in a noncrowded region in the outer galaxy. It shares similar properties to the other halos but its pulsar is younger and radio-quiet. Our observation implies that TeV halos could commonly exist around pulsars and their formation does not depend on the configuration of the pulsar magnetosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Testing Capable of Simulating “Ultralow” Lunar Temperatures

The first-ever lithium-ion battery cycler capable of testing the coin and pouch cells under ultralow (≤40 °C) temperatures down to -175 °C to simulate extreme climates found in the lunar and space missions, high-altitude air vehicles, polar regions of Earth, and military expeditionary missions is enthusiastically reported. The extremely cold temperatures are achieved through a tailored extreme low-temperature system (ELTS) with liquid nitrogen flow and the ability to reach temperatures between -175 and 25 °C, using 1 kΩ and 1 MΩ resistors at varying currents of 1–4 mA and 1–4 μA, respectively, is validated. Employing the ELTS, Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 (LTO)||Li cells with 1 m lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide in cyclopentyl methyl ether as an electrolyte developed in this research group are charged and discharged at room temperature (cycling rate C/5), -20 (C/10), -40 (C/40), and -60 °C (C/50), which exhibited discharge capacities of 159.04, 119.12, 101.79, and 33.06 mAh g -1 , respectively. Moreover, the LTO||Li cell produced a reversible capacity of 7.12 mAh g -1 tested at -100 °C for the first time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COCOA: A compact Compton camera for astrophysical observation of MeV-scale gamma rays

COCOA (COmpact COmpton cAmera) is a next-generation gamma-ray telescope designed for astrophysical observations in the MeV energy range. The detector comprises a scatterer volume employing the LiquidO detection technology and an array of scintillating crystals acting as absorber. Surrounding plastic scintillator panels serve as a veto system for charged particles. The detector's compact, scalable design enables flexible deployment on microsatellites or high-altitude balloons. Gamma rays at MeV energies have not been well explored historically (the so-called "MeV gap") and COCOA has the potential to improve the sensitivity in this energy band.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗