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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

A near-infrared transmission spectrum for the warm Saturn HAT-P-12b

We present a Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera-3 (WFC3) transmission spectrum for the transiting exoplanet HAT-P-12b. This warm (1000 K) sub-Saturn-mass planet has a smaller mass and a lower temperature than the hot Jupiters that have been studied so far. We find that the planet's measured transmission spectrum lacks the expected water absorption feature for a hydrogen-dominated atmosphere and is instead best described by a model with high-altitude clouds. Using a frequentist hypothesis testing procedure, we can rule out a hydrogen-dominated cloud-free atmosphere to 4.9σ. When combined with other recent WFC3 studies, our observations suggest that clouds may be common in exoplanetary atmospheres.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quickest Detection for Changes in Maximal kNN Coherence of Random Matrices

This paper addresses the problem of quickest detection of a change in the maximal coherence between columns of a n p random matrix based on a sequence of matrix observations having a single unknown change point. The random matrix is assumed to have identically distributed rows and the maximal coherence is defined as the largest of the ( 2 p) correlation coefficients associated with any row. Likewise the κ nearest neighbor (kNN) coherence is defined as the κ-th largest of these correlation coefficients. The forms of the preand postchange distributions of the observed matrices are assumed to belong to the family of elliptically contoured densities with sparse dispersion matrices but are otherwise unknown. A nonparametric stopping rule is proposed that is based on the maximal kNN sample coherence between columns of each observed random matrix. This is a summary statistic that is related to a test of existence of a hub vertex in a sample correlation graph having degree at least κ. Performance bounds on the delay and false alarm performance of the proposed stopping rule are obtained in the purely high-dimensional regime where p → ∞ and n is fixed. When the prechange dispersion matrix is diagonal it is shown that, among all functions of the proposed summary statistic, the proposed stopping rule is asymptotically optimal under a minimax quickest change detection model as the stopping threshold approaches infinity. Furthermore, the theory developed also applies to sequential hypothesis testing and fixed sample size tests.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

EGS Stimulation Design with Uncertainty Quantification at the EGS Collab Site

Engineering a robust hydraulic connection between wells is one of the most difficult aspects of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Designing and constructing such hydraulic connections requires and understanding of the in situ state of stress and the heterogeneities and discontinuities that naturally exist and may control the stimulation. Even with comprehensive stress and formation characterization programs substantial uncertainty remains in these key parameters. This is especially the case in high-temperature EGS environments where drilling conditions are often difficult and a far fewer logging and testing options are available. This paper presents a new approach for explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the state of stress using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This approach produces a probability distribution for the stress tensor, including a general 3D orientation, that reflects the uncertainties in all the observations or indicators used to constrain the stress state. This method is demonstrated on the characterization data for the EGS Collab Experiment 2 site. The output of the analysis is used to guide the design of the planned stimulations. In the case of research projects like EGS Collab, explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the stress state allow for more rigorous hypothesis testing by allowing conclusions drawn from the experiments to be interpreted in the context of the uncertain knowledge about conditions in the test bed.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

On the detection of molecules in the atmosphere of HD 189733b using HST NICMOS transmission spectroscopy

The Hubble Space Telescope/NICMOS transmission spectrum measurements of HD 189733b that suggest the detection of methane (CH{sub 4}) in an exoplanet atmosphere have been a source of significant controversy. With what is probably the best analyzed exoplanet spectroscopy data set to date, different teams, using different methods, have claimed evidence both contradicting and supporting the original findings. Here, we report results from a uniform spectral retrieval analysis of the three independent published spectra together with null hypothesis testing. Based on Bayesian model comparison, we find that two of the three spectra show strong evidence (≥3.6σ) for the detection of molecular features mainly due to water and methane while the third is consistent with a weak molecular detection at the 2.2σ level. We interpret the agreement in the spectral modulation established by previous authors and the atmospheric retrieval results presented here, as a confirmation of the original detection of molecular absorbers in the atmosphere of HD 189733b.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Is the galactic bulge devoid of planets?

We consider a sample of 31 exoplanetary systems detected by gravitational microlensing and investigate whether or not the estimated distances to these systems conform to the Galactic distribution of planets expected from models. We derive the expected distribution of distances and relative proper motions from a simulated microlensing survey, correcting for the dominant selection effects that affect the sensitivity of planet detection as a function of distance, and compare it to the observed distribution using Anderson–Darling (AD) hypothesis testing. Taking the relative abundance of planets in the bulge to that in the disk, f{sub bulge}, as a model parameter, we find that our model is consistent with the observed distribution only for f{sub bulge}<0.54 (for a p-value threshold of 0.01) implying that the bulge may be devoid of planets relative to the disk. Allowing for a dependence of planet abundance on metallicity and host mass, or an additional dependence of planet sensitivity on event timescale, does not restore consistency for f{sub bulge}=1. We examine the distance estimates of some events in detail, and conclude that some parallax-based estimates could be significantly in error. Only by combining the removal of one problematic event from our sample and the inclusion of strong dependences of planet abundance or detection sensitivity on host mass, metallicity, and event timescale are we able to find consistency with the hypothesis that the bulge and disk have equal planet abundance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DETECTING BARYON ACOUSTIC OSCILLATIONS

Baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) are a feature imprinted in the galaxy distribution by acoustic waves traveling in the plasma of the early universe. Their detection at the expected scale in large-scale structures strongly supports current cosmological models with a nearly linear evolution from redshift z Almost-Equal-To 1000 and the existence of dark energy. In addition, BAOs provide a standard ruler for studying cosmic expansion. In this paper, we focus on methods for BAO detection using the correlation function measurement {xi}-hat. For each method, we want to understand the tested hypothesis (the hypothesis H{sub 0} to be rejected) and the underlying assumptions. We first present wavelet methods which are mildly model-dependent and mostly sensitive to the BAO feature. Then we turn to fully model-dependent methods. We present the method used most often based on the {chi}{sup 2} statistic, but we find that it has limitations. In general the assumptions of the {chi}{sup 2} method are not verified, and it only gives a rough estimate of the significance. The estimate can become very wrong when considering more realistic hypotheses, where the covariance matrix of {xi}-hat depends on cosmological parameters. Instead, we propose to use the {Delta}l method based on two modifications: we modify the procedure for computing the significance and make it rigorous, and we modify the statistic to obtain better results in the case of varying covariance matrix. We verify with simulations that correct significances are different from the ones obtained using the classical {chi}{sup 2} procedure. We also test a simple example of varying covariance matrix. In this case we find that our modified statistic outperforms the classical {chi}{sup 2} statistic when both significances are correctly computed. Finally, we find that taking into account variations of the covariance matrix can change both BAO detection levels and cosmological parameter constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Structural characterization of particle systems using spherical harmonics

Many important properties of particulate materials are heavily influenced by the size and shape of the constituent particles. Thus, in order to control and improve product quality, it is important to develop a good understanding of the shape and size of the particles that make up a given particulate material. In this paper, we show how the spherical harmonics expansion can be used to approximate particles obtained from tomographic 3D images. This yields an analytic representation of the particles which can be used to calculate structural characteristics. We present an estimation method for the optimal length of expansion depending on individual particle shapes, based on statistical hypothesis testing. A suitable choice of this parameter leads to a smooth approximation that preserves the main shape features of the original particle. To show the wide applicability of this procedure, we use it to approximate particles obtained from two different tomographic 3D datasets of particulate materials. The first one describes an anode material from lithium-ion cells that consists of sphere-like particles with different sizes. The second dataset describes a powder of highly non-spherical titanium dioxide particles. - Highlights: • Complex particle shapes are described analytically by spherical harmonics expansion. • The optimal length of the expansion is estimated for each particle individually. • Characteristics like, e.g., particle surface areas can be calculated efficiently. • The method is applied to two tomographic datasets of particulate materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Perioperative Gemcitabine + Erlotinib Plus Pancreaticoduodenectomy for Resectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma: ACOSOG Z5041 (Alliance) Phase II Trial

Background: There is considerable interest in a neoadjuvant approach for resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study evaluated perioperative gemcitabine + erlotinib (G+E) for resectable PDAC. Methods: A multicenter, cooperative group, single-arm, phase II trial was conducted between April 2009 and November 2013 (ACOSOG Z5041). Patients with biopsy-confirmed PDAC in the pancreatic head without evidence of involvement of major mesenteric vessels (resectable) were eligible. Patients (n = 123) received an 8-week cycle of G+E before and after surgery. The primary endpoint was 2-year overall survival (OS), and secondary endpoints included toxicity, response, resection rate, and time to progression. Resectability was assessed retrospectively by central review. The study closed early due to slow accrual, and no formal hypothesis testing was performed. Results: Overall, 114 patients were eligible, consented, and initiated protocol treatment. By central radiologic review, 97 (85%) of the 114 patients met the protocol-defined resectability criteria. Grade 3+ toxicity was reported in 60% and 79% of patients during the neoadjuvant phase and overall, respectively. Twenty-two of 114 (19%) patients did not proceed to surgery; 83 patients (73%) were successfully resected. R0 and R1 margins were obtained in 67 (81%) and 16 (19%) resected patients, respectively, and 54 patients completed postoperative G+E (65%). The 2-year OS rate for the entire cohort (n = 114) was 40% (95% confidence interval [CI] 31–50), with a median OS of 21.3 months (95% CI 17.2–25.9). The 2-year OS rate for resected patients (n = 83) was 52% (95% CI 41–63), with a median OS of 25.4 months (95% CI 21.8–29.6). Conclusions: For resectable PDAC, perioperative G+E is feasible. Further evaluation of neoadjuvant strategies in resectable PDAC is warranted with more active systemic regimens.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Multileaf Collimator Tracking Improves Dose Delivery for Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy: Results of the First Clinical Trial

Purpose: To test the hypothesis that multileaf collimator (MLC) tracking improves the consistency between the planned and delivered dose compared with the dose without MLC tracking, in the setting of a prostate cancer volumetric modulated arc therapy trial. Methods and Materials: Multileaf collimator tracking was implemented for 15 patients in a prostate cancer radiation therapy trial; in total, 513 treatment fractions were delivered. During each treatment fraction, the prostate trajectory and treatment MLC positions were collected. These data were used as input for dose reconstruction (multiple isocenter shift method) to calculate the treated dose (with MLC tracking) and the dose that would have been delivered had MLC tracking not been applied (without MLC tracking). The percentage difference from planned for target and normal tissue dose-volume points were calculated. The hypothesis was tested for each dose-volume value via analysis of variance using the F test. Results: Of the 513 fractions delivered, 475 (93%) were suitable for analysis. The mean difference and standard deviation between the planned and treated MLC tracking doses and the planned and without-MLC tracking doses for all 475 fractions were, respectively, PTV D{sub 99%} −0.8% ± 1.1% versus −2.1% ± 2.7%; CTV D{sub 99%} −0.6% ± 0.8% versus −0.6% ± 1.1%; rectum V{sub 65%} 1.6% ± 7.9% versus −1.2% ± 18%; and bladder V{sub 65%} 0.5% ± 4.4% versus −0.0% ± 9.2% (P<.001 for all dose-volume results). Conclusion: This study shows that MLC tracking improves the consistency between the planned and delivered doses compared with the modeled doses without MLC tracking. The implications of this finding are potentially improved patient outcomes, as well as more reliable dose-volume data for radiobiological parameter determination.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Demonstrating Hierarchical System Development With the Common Community Physics Package Single‐Column Model: A Case Study Over the Southern Great Plains

This study demonstrates a specific application of the hierarchical system development (HSD) approach to investigate, analyze, and attribute model issues within the Unified Forecast System (UFS), with a focus on process isolation. By evaluating a non‐precipitating, shallow cumulus case at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site in the UFS global forecast against the observation, the investigation identifies a warmer and deeper daytime convective planetary boundary layer (PBL) and misrepresented nocturnal PBL transition. Hypothesis testing, which employs the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) single‐column model (SCM) and uses the same physics as the UFS global model, confirms that these issues are attributed to the model physics and initialization. Specifically, misrepresented PBL processes are linked to problematic surface condition and a lack of cloud formation, which may stem from deficiencies in PBL and cloud microphysics parameterizations and their interactions. The UFS initial condition contributes to an earlier, excessively collapsed daytime convective boundary layer and a lack of decoupling between the stable boundary layer and residual layer late in the afternoon. This work introduces an avenue for the community to engage with the application of HSD, along with the CCPP and CCPP SCM, to understand the interplay of model physics, disentangle the roles of model components, as well as facilitate model and forecast improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A statistical approach to combining multisource information in one-class classifiers

A new method is introduced in this paper for combining information from multiple sources to support one-class classification. The contributing sources may represent measurements taken by different sensors of the same physical entity, repeated measurements by a single sensor, or numerous features computed from a single measured image or signal. The approach utilizes the theory of statistical hypothesis testing, and applies Fisher's technique for combining p-values, modified to handle nonindependent sources. Classifier outputs take the form of fused p-values, which may be used to gauge the consistency of unknown entities with one or more class hypotheses. The approach enables rigorous assessment of classification uncertainties, and allows for traceability of classifier decisions back to the constituent sources, both of which are important for high-consequence decision support. Application of the technique is illustrated in two challenge problems, one for skin segmentation and the other for terrain labeling. Finally, the method is seen to be particularly effective for relatively small training samples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stochastic Fault Detection

This entry describes the state-of-the-art and future perspectives on stochastic fault detection, namely, stochastic fault detection and diagnosis (FDD). Both model-based and data-driven FDD methods for stochastic signals and systems have been included, where the use of hypothesis testing, Kalman filtering, system estimation, principal component analysis (PCA), and stochastic distribution control has been discussed for the construction of effective FDD algorithms. Indeed, stochastic FDD constitute an important and integrated part in developing fault-tolerant controls (FTC) for guaranteed safe operation of control systems, of which increased penetration of random factors is inevitable nowadays.

Wang, Aiping↗

Learning likelihood ratios with neural network classifiers

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however, make use of data- or simulation-driven models for which computing the likelihood ratio can be very difficult or even impossible. By applying the so-called “likelihood ratio trick,” approximations of the likelihood ratio may be computed using clever parametrizations of neural network-based classifiers. A number of different neural network setups can be defined to satisfy this procedure, each with varying performance in approximating the likelihood ratio when using finite training data. We present a series of empirical studies detailing the performance of several common loss functionals and parametrizations of the classifier output in approximating the likelihood ratio of two univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributions as well as simulated high-energy particle physics datasets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Space-time generalization of mutual information

The mutual information characterizes correlations between spatially separated regions of a system. Yet, in experiments we often measure dynamical correlations, which involve probing operators that are also separated in time. Here, we introduce a space-time generalization of mutual information which, by construction, satisfies several natural properties of the mutual information and at the same time characterizes correlations across subsystems that are separated in time. In particular, this quantity, that we call the space-time mutual information, bounds all dynamical correlations. We construct this quantity based on the idea of the quantum hypothesis testing. As a by-product, our definition provides a transparent interpretation in terms of an experimentally accessible setup. We draw connections with other notions in quantum information theory, such as quantum channel discrimination. Finally, we study the behavior of the space-time mutual information in several settings and contrast its long-time behavior in many-body localizing and thermalizing systems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Replication Concepts for Bioenergy Research Experiments

While there are some large and fundamental differences among disciplines related to the conversion of biomass to bioenergy, all scientific endeavors involve the use of bio- logical feedstocks. As such, nearly every scientific experiment conducted in this area, regardless of the specific discipline, is subject to random variation, some of which is unpredictable and unidentifiable (i.e., pure random variation such as variation among plots in an experiment, individuals within a plot, or laboratory samples within an experimental unit) while some is predictable and identifiable (repeatable variation, such as spatial or temporal patterns within an experimental field, a glasshouse or growth chamber, or among laboratory containers). Identifying the scale and sources of this variation relative to the specific hypotheses of interest is a critical component of designing good experiments that generate meaningful and believable hypothesis tests and inference statements. Many bioenergy feedstock experiments are replicated at an incorrect scale, typically by sampling feedstocks to estimate laboratory error or by completely ignoring the errors associated with growing feedstocks in an agricultural area at a field or farmland (micro- or macro-region) scale. As such, actual random errors inherent in experimental materials are frequently underestimated, with unrealistically low standard errors of statistical parameters (e.g., means), leading to improper inferences. The examples and guidelines set forth in this paper and many of the references cited are intended to form the general policy and guidelines for replication of bioenergy feedstock experiments to be published in BioEnergy Research .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High-dimensional isotomics, part 2: Observations of over 100 constraints on methionine's isotome

The abundances of different isotopic forms of a compound, or isotopologues, will vary based on its physical and chemical history. The number of isotopologues increases combinatorically with the size of a molecule, and even small molecules such as amino acids have thousands of potentially observable isotopic variants. However, due to the analytical challenges of separating and observing isotopologues, only a few dimensions of isotopic diversity are routinely measured. Overcoming these challenges requires both an experimental method to observe many isotopic properties and a theoretical framework for interpreting these experiments. In Part 1, we presented such a theoretical framework; here, we demonstrate an experimental method, which we apply to methionine. Our approach uses a Q Exactive HF Orbitrap to perform several “M + N experiments”, where a sample is ionized, a subset of its isotopologues with cardinal mass N daltons greater than the unsubstituted isotopologue is selected and fragmented, and the proportions of all detectable isotopic forms of those fragment ions are quantified. We perform M + 1, M + 2, M + 3, and M + 4 experiments of a methionine sample and standard where the sample has a 100 ‰ enrichment of 13C at the methyl carbon relative to the natural 13C abundance at that position in the standard, and is otherwise identical to the standard. We observe isotopic forms of 8 fragment ion species for each version of the M + N experiment. With the assistance of a forward model of expected mass spectra, we identify isotopic peaks for each fragment ion based on observed mass and abundance, screen these for data quality, and quantify abundances for 146 unique isotopic peaks at precisions of ≈ 0.3–3 ‰. We present our direct observations and use them to reconstruct the concentrations of 19 individual singly, doubly, and triply-substituted isotopologues; doing so gives fewer constraints and broader error bars than working with the direct observations, but may be more interpretable for some applications. We also examine possibilities for measuring additional peaks, which are primarily limited by the detection limit of the Orbitrap-IRMS method. We then suggest some possible uses of our direct measurements for chemical forensics and hypothesis testing. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the diversity of isotopic constraints currently observable and interpretable for organic molecules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Indirect morphological analysis of particles in polymer particle composites via non-destructive permittivity measurements

We report polymers with specific properties (e.g. electrical, optical or mechanical) are commonly obtained via the addition of additives. The composites final properties rely on the preservation of these additives during embedding, which is, in particular, challenging for high aspect ratio particles, like shear-sensitive flaky particles (ssFP). Thus, in cases of ssFP off- or in-line monitoring is required. This study addresses the lack of suitable non-destructive monitoring methods appropriate for ssFP possessing a thickness below 1um and an area equivalent diameter of several 10 um. An elegant method was developed to validate the integrity of ssFP within composites, which is based on the measurement of the composite's permittivity and applying precise micro-structure property correlations to indirectly determine their morphological features. The main hypothesis tested was that a reduction of the particle’s aspect ratio by a factor of larger than 5 can be detected by the measurement of the composite's permittivity. In this study,the matrix polymer polyethylene or an epoxy resin together with mica-based ssFP with a mean area equivalent diameter of 42 um were used. The micro-structure property correlation presented by G. Ondracek [Z. f. Werkstofftechnik, 8:280-287, 1977] provided the necessary theoretical backbone to indirectly infer geometrical changes to the ssFP from permittivity measurements. An excellent match was obtained between the indirectly and the directly determined particle aspect ratios. This preliminary study established the presented technique as a promising non-destructive test method to monitor the integrity of ssFPs embedded in a polymer. In principle this technique is adaptable for in-line process monitoring.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗