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An experimental methodology for a fuzzy set preference model

A flexible fuzzy set preference model first requires approximate methodologies for implementation. Fuzzy sets must be defined for each individual consumer using computer software, requiring a minimum of time and expertise on the part of the consumer. The amount of information needed in defining sets must also be established. The model itself must adapt fully to the subject's choice of attributes (vague or precise), attribute levels, and importance weights. The resulting individual-level model should be fully adapted to each consumer. The methodologies needed to develop this model will be equally useful in a new generation of intelligent systems which interact with ordinary consumers, controlling electronic devices through fuzzy expert systems or making recommendations based on a variety of inputs. The power of personal computers and their acceptance by consumers has yet to be fully utilized to create interactive knowledge systems that fully adapt their function to the user. Understanding individual consumer preferences is critical to the design of new products and the estimation of demand (market share) for existing products, which in turn is an input to management systems concerned with production and distribution. The question of what to make, for whom to make it and how much to make requires an understanding of the customer's preferences and the trade-offs that exist between alternatives. Conjoint analysis is a widely used methodology which de-composes an overall preference for an object into a combination of preferences for its constituent parts (attributes such as taste and price), which are combined using an appropriate combination function. Preferences are often expressed using linguistic terms which cannot be represented in conjoint models. Current models are also not implemented an individual level, making it difficult to reach meaningful conclusions about the cause of an individual's behavior from an aggregate model. The combination of complex aggregate models and vague linguistic preferences has greatly limited the usefulness and predictive validity of existing preference models. A fuzzy set preference model that uses linguistic variables and a fully interactive implementation should be able to simultaneously address these issues and substantially improve the accuracy of demand estimates. The parallel implementation of crisp and fuzzy conjoint models using identical data not only validates the fuzzy set model but also provides an opportunity to assess the impact of fuzzy set definitions and individual attribute choices implemented in the interactive methodology developed in this research. The generalized experimental tools needed for conjoint models can also be applied to many other types of intelligent systems.

Turksen, I. B.

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgment, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs a 300 million bit-per-second (Mbps) return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming eighteen months, it will step up to 600 Mbps. Already there is talk of a 1.2 billion bit-per-second (Gbps) upgrade for the ISS and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgement, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs its high-data-rate return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming months, it will double that data rate and is forecast to fully utilize that capability. Already there is talk of an upgrade that quadruples the current data rate allocated to ISS payload science before the end of its mission and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan

Proceedings of the Astrobiology Science Conference 2010. Evolution and Life: Surviving Catastrophes and Extremes on Earth and Beyond

The Program of the 2010 Astrobiology Science Conference: Evolution and Life: Surviving Catastrophes and Extremes on Earth and Beyond, included sessions on: 50 Years of Exobiology and Astrobiology: Greatest Hits; Extraterrestrial Molecular Evolution and Pre-Biological Chemistry: From the Interstellar Medium to the Solar System I; Human Exploration, Astronaut Health; Diversity in Astrobiology Research and Education; Titan: Past, Present, and Future; Energy Flow in Microbial Ecosystems; Extraterrestrial Molecular Evolution and Prebiological Chemistry: From the Interstellar Medium to the Solar System II; Astrobiology in Orbit; Astrobiology and Interdisciplinary Communication; Science from Rio Tinto: An Acidic Environment; Can We Rule Out Spontaneous Generation of RNA as the Key Step in the Origin of Life?; How Hellish Was the Hadean Earth?; Results from ASTEP and Other Astrobiology Field Campaigns I; Prebiotic Evolution: From Chemistry to Life I; Adaptation of Life in Hostile Space Environments; Extrasolar Terrestrial Planets I: Formation and Composition; Collaborative Tools and Technology for Astrobiology; Results from ASTEP and Other Astrobiology Field Campaigns II; Prebiotic Evolution: From Chemistry to Life II; Survival, Growth, and Evolution of Microrganisms in Model Extraterrestrial Environments; Extrasolar Terrestrial Planets II: Habitability and Life; Planetary Science Decadal Survey Update; Astrobiology Research Funding; Bioessential Elements Through Space and Time I; State of the Art in Life Detection; Terrestrial Evolution: Implications for the Past, Present, and Future of Life on Earth; Psychrophiles and Polar Environments; Life in Volcanic Environments: On Earth and Beyond; Geochronology and Astrobiology On and Off the Earth; Bioessential Elements Through Space and Time II; Origins and Evolution of Genetic Systems; Evolution of Advanced Life; Water-rich Asteroids and Moons: Composition and Astrobiological Potential; Impact Events and Evolution; A Warm, Wet Mars?; Titan Versus Europa - Potential for Astrobiology; Habitability Potential of Mars; Biosignatures: Tools and Development I; Origins of Molecular Asymmetry, Homochirality, and Life Detection; Deserts and Evaporite Basins and Associated Microbialite Systems; Ancient Life and Synthetic Biology: Crossroad of the Past and Future; Biosignatures: Tools and Development II; Free Oxygen: Proxies, Causes, and Consequences; Life in Modern Microbialite Systems - Function and Adaptation; Hydrothermal Systems and Organosynthesis Processes: Origin and Evolution of Life; Where Should We Go on Mars to Seek Signs of Life?; Search for Intelligent Life I. Innovative SETI Observing Programs and Future Directions; Integrating Astrobiology Research Across and Beyond the Community; Education in Astrobiology in K-12; Search for Intelligent Life II. Global Engagement and Interstellar Message Construction; Poster sessions included: Extraterrestrial Molecular Evolution and Pre-Biological Chemistry; Prebiotic Evolution: From Chemistry to Life; RNA World; Terrestrial Evolution: Implications for the Past, Present, and Future of Life on Earth; Hydrothermal Systems and Organosynthesis Processes: Origin and Evolution of Life; Virology and Astrobiology; Horizontal Genetic Transfer and Properties of Ancestral Organisms; Life in Volcanic Environments: On Earth and Beyond; Impact Events and Evolution; Evolution of Advanced Life; Evolution of Intelligent Life; Education in Astrobiology in K-12; Origins of Molecular Asymmetry, Homochirality, and Life Detection; Astrobiology and Interdisciplinary Communication; Diversity in Astrobiology Research and Education; Integrating Astrobiology Research Across and Beyond the Community; Policy and Societal Issues: Dealing with Potential Bumps in the Astrobiology Road Ahead; Results from ASTEP and Other Astrobiology Field Campaigns; Energy Flow in Microbial Ecosystems; Psychrophiles and Polar Environments; Deserts and Evaporite Basins and Associated Microbialite stems; Life in Modern Microbialite Systems - Function and Adaptation; Free Oxygen: Proxies, Causes, and Consequences; Bioessential Elements Through Space and Time; Water-rich Asteroids and Moons: Composition and Astrobiological Potential; Biosignatures: Tools and Developments; Robotics and Instrumentation for Astrobiology; State of the Art in Life Detection; Astrobiology in Orbit; Survival, Growth, and Evolution of Microrganisms in Model Extraterrestrial Evolution; Search for Intelligent Life; Habitability Potential of Mars; How and Where Should We Seek Signs of Life on Mars?; Titan: Past, Present, and Future; Extrasolar Terrestrial Planets: Formation, Composition, Diversity, Habitability and Life; Human Exploration, Astronaut Health; Science from Rio Tinto: An Acidic Environment and Adaptation of Life in Hostile Space Environments;

Source record

From pilot's associate to satellite controller's associate

Associate technology is an emerging engineering discipline wherein intelligent automation can significantly augment the performance of man-machine systems. An associate system is one that monitors operator activity and adapts its operational behavior accordingly. Associate technology is most effectively applied when mapped into management of the human-machine interface and display-control loop in typical manned systems. This paper addresses the potential for application of associate technology into the arena of intelligent command and control of satellite systems, from diagnosis of onboard and onground of satellite systems fault conditions, to execution of nominal satellite control functions. Rather than specifying a specific solution, this paper draws parallels between the Pilot's Associate concept and the domain of satellite control.

Neyland, David L.

Intelligent failure-tolerant control

An overview of failure-tolerant control is presented, beginning with robust control, progressing through parallel and analytical redundancy, and ending with rule-based systems and artificial neural networks. By design or implementation, failure-tolerant control systems are 'intelligent' systems. All failure-tolerant systems require some degrees of robustness to protect against catastrophic failure; failure tolerance often can be improved by adaptivity in decision-making and control, as well as by redundancy in measurement and actuation. Reliability, maintainability, and survivability can be enhanced by failure tolerance, although each objective poses different goals for control system design. Artificial intelligence concepts are helpful for integrating and codifying failure-tolerant control systems, not as alternatives but as adjuncts to conventional design methods.

Stengel, Robert F.

Controls and Health Management Technologies for Intelligent Aerospace Propulsion Systems

With the increased emphasis on aircraft safety, enhanced performance and affordability, and the need to reduce the environmental impact of aircraft, there are many new challenges being faced by the designers of aircraft propulsion systems. The Controls and Dynamics Technology Branch at NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Glenn Research Center (GRC) in Cleveland, Ohio, is leading and participating in various projects in partnership with other organizations within GRC and across NASA, the U.S. aerospace industry, and academia to develop advanced controls and health management technologies that will help meet these challenges through the concept of an Intelligent Engine. The key enabling technologies for an Intelligent Engine are the increased efficiencies of components through active control, advanced diagnostics and prognostics integrated with intelligent engine control to enhance component life, and distributed control with smart sensors and actuators in an adaptive fault tolerant architecture. This paper describes the current activities of the Controls and Dynamics Technology Branch in the areas of active component control and propulsion system intelligent control, and presents some recent analytical and experimental results in these areas.

Garg, Sanjay

Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction

The emergence of exascale computing and artificial intelligence offer tremendous potential to significantly advance Earth system prediction capabilities. However, enormous challenges must be overcome to adapt models and prediction systems to use these new technologies effectively. A 2022 WMO report on exascale computing recommends “urgency in dedicating efforts and attention to disruptions associated with evolving computing technologies that will be increasingly difficult to overcome, threatening continued advancements in weather and climate prediction capabilities.” Further, the explosive growth in data from observations, model and ensemble output, and postprocessing threatens to overwhelm the ability to deliver timely, accurate, and precise information needed for decision-making. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers untapped opportunities to alter how models are developed, observations are processed, and predictions are analyzed and extracted for decision-making. Given the extraordinarily high cost of computing, growing complexity of prediction systems, and increasingly unmanageable amount of data being produced and consumed, these challenges are rapidly becoming too large for any single institution or country to handle. This paper describes key technical and budgetary challenges, identifies gaps and ways to address them, and makes a number of recommendations.

Atmosphere

Fighter aircraft flight control technology design requirements

The evolution of fighter aircraft flight control technology is briefly surveyed. Systems engineering, battle damage considerations for adaptive flutter suppression, in-flight simulation, and artificial intelligence are briefly discussed.

Nelson, W. E., Jr.

Real-time artificial intelligence issues in the development of the adaptive tactical navigator

Adaptive Tactical Navigation (ATN) is a laboratory prototype of a knowledge based system to provide navigation system management and decision aiding in the next generation of tactical aircraft. ATN's purpose is to manage a set of multimode navigation equipment, dynamically selecting the best equipment to use in accordance with mission goals and phase, threat environment, equipment malfunction status, and battle damage. ATN encompasses functions as diverse as sensor data interpretation, diagnosis, and planning. Real time issues that were identified in ATN and the approaches used to address them are addressed. Functional requirements and a global architecture for the ATN system are described. Decision making with time constraints are discussed. Two subproblems are identified; making decisions with incomplete information and with limited resources. Approaches used in ATN to address real time performance are described and simulation results are discussed.

Green, Peter E.

Application of intelligent robotic welding systems for fabrication of aerospace hardware

The application of robots to complex on-orbit tasks will require a high degree of adaptability. This paper describes a project which is developing very adaptive robotic systems for welding of the Space Shuttle main engine. A number of the developments which will arise from this program will serve as useful starting points for more advanced systems to be used on-orbit.

Jones, C. S.

RIACS Workshop on the Verification and Validation of Autonomous and Adaptive Systems

The long-term future of space exploration at NASA is dependent on the full exploitation of autonomous and adaptive systems: careful monitoring of missions from earth, as is the norm now, will be infeasible due to the sheer number of proposed missions and the communication lag for deep-space missions. Mission managers are however worried about the reliability of these more intelligent systems. The main focus of the workshop was to address these worries and hence we invited NASA engineers working on autonomous and adaptive systems and researchers interested in the verification and validation (V&V) of software systems. The dual purpose of the meeting was to: (1) make NASA engineers aware of the V&V techniques they could be using; and (2) make the V&V community aware of the complexity of the systems NASA is developing.

Pecheur, Charles

Potential application of artificial concepts to aerodynamic simulation

The concept of artificial intelligence as it applies to computational fluid dynamics simulation is investigated. How expert systems can be adapted to speed the numerical aerodynamic simulation process is also examined. A proposed expert grid generation system is briefly described which, given flow parameters, configuration geometry, and simulation constraints, uses knowledge about the discretization process to determine grid point coordinates, computational surface information, and zonal interface parameters.

Kutler, P.

Flight Control Research at NASA Ames

An overview of the flight control work in the Intelligent Systems Division at NASA Ames is presented. The highlight focuses on efforts surrounding performance-adaptive aeroelastic wing shaping for aircraft with flexible wings. Topics covered include aeroservoelastic modeling capabilities, online drag-optimizing control designs, gust and maneuver load alleviation techniques, and related wind tunnel demonstrations.

Hashemi, Kelley

Knowledge-based load leveling and task allocation in human-machine systems

Conventional human-machine systems use task allocation policies which are based on the premise of a flexible human operator. This individual is most often required to compensate for and augment the capabilities of the machine. The development of artificial intelligence and improved technologies have allowed for a wider range of task allocation strategies. In response to these issues a Knowledge Based Adaptive Mechanism (KBAM) is proposed for assigning tasks to human and machine in real time, using a load leveling policy. This mechanism employs an online workload assessment and compensation system which is responsive to variations in load through an intelligent interface. This interface consists of a loading strategy reasoner which has access to information about the current status of the human-machine system as well as a database of admissible human/machine loading strategies. Difficulties standing in the way of successful implementation of the load leveling strategy are examined.

Chignell, M. H.

Emulation of Synaptic Plasticity in WO 3 ‐Based Ion‐Gated Transistors

Neuromorphic systems, inspired by the human brain, promise significant advancements in computational efficiency and power consumption by integrating processing and memory functions, thereby addressing the von Neumann bottleneck. This paper explores the synaptic plasticity of a WO3-based ion-gated transistor (IGT) in [EMIM][TFSI] and a 0.1 mol L −1 LiTFSI in [EMIM][TFSI] for neuromorphic computing applications. Cyclic voltammetry (CV), transistor characteristics, and atomic force microscopy (AFM) force–distance (FD) profiling analyses reveal that Li + brings about ion intercalation, together with higher mobility and conductance, and slower response time (τ). WO 3 IGTs exhibit spike amplitude-dependent plasticity (SADP), spike number-dependent plasticity (SNDP), spike duration-dependent plasticity (SDDP), frequency-dependent plasticity (FDP), and paired-pulse facilitation (PPF), which are all crucial for mimicking biological synaptic functions and understanding how to achieve different types of plasticity in the same IGT. The findings underscore the importance of selecting the appropriate ionic medium to optimize the performance of synaptic transistors, enabling the development of neuromorphic systems capable of adaptive learning and real-time processing, which are essential for applications in artificial intelligence (AI).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

A digital audio/video interleaving system

A method of interleaving an audio signal with its associated video signal for simultaneous transmission or recording, and the subsequent separation of the two signals, is described. Comparisons are made between the new audio signal interleaving system and the Skylab Pam audio/video interleaving system, pointing out improvements gained by using the digital audio/video interleaving system. It was found that the digital technique is the simplest, most effective and most reliable method for interleaving audio and/or other types of data into the video signal for the Shuttle Orbiter application. Details of the design of a multiplexer capable of accommodating two basic data channels, each consisting of a single 31.5-kb/s digital bit stream are given. An adaptive slope delta modulation system is introduced to digitize audio signals, producing a high immunity of work intelligibility to channel errors, primarily due to the robust nature of the delta-modulation algorithm.

Richards, R. W.