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Deriving a Suite of Climate Data Records from 21-years of Sounder Observations

Two retrieval algorithms, a Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP) Level 2 algorithm and a Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) Level 3 algorithm, have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center. In this presentation, we will demonstrate the radiance closure build into these two algorithms. This is possible due to the use of a principal-component-based radiative transfer model (PCRTM). The PCRTM enables the inclusion of all available spectral information from hyperspectral IR sounders. It also has fast and accurate capability of modeling observed cloudy radiance spectra directly. The SiFSAP, which fits sounder radiance spectra using PCRTM as forward model and an optimal estimation as inverse model, has 3-times higher spatial resolution and 9-times denser data products comparing to current NASA and NOAA operational IR sounder products. With great support from NASA sounder SIPS, the SiFSAP algorithm has been delivered to NASA GES DISC for L2 and L3 data generation and releasing. The ClimFiSP uses a spectral fingerprinting method to directly generate L3 data products from spatiotemporally averaged L1 data. The goal of ClimFiSP is to generate high-quality climate data records (CDRs) from multiple IR sounders (e.g. Aqua AIRS, SNPP CrIS, NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 CrIS) using a consistent retrieval methodology. Using CHIRP L1 data, we have generated 20-years of CDRs for atmospheric temperature, water vapor, and trace gas profiles, as well as cloud and surface properties. The algorithm will be transitioned to Sounder SIPS soon and eventually to NASA GES DISC.

Xu Liu↗

NASA NTRS2006

M(sub W) = 7.2-7.4 Estimated for A.D. 900 Seattle Fault Earthquake by Modeling the Uplift of a Lidar-Mapped Marine Terrace

Inverse modeling of slip on the Seattle fault system, constrained by elevations of uplifted marine terraces, provides a well-constrained estimate of the magnitude of the largest known upper-crust earthquake in the Puget Sound region within the past 2500 years. The terrace elevations that constrain the slip inversion are extracted from elevation and slope images generated from LIDAR surveys of the Puget Sound collected in 1996-2002. The images reveal a single uplifted terrace, dated to 1000 cal yr B.P. near Restoration Point, which is morphologically continuous along the southern shoreline of Bainbridge Island and is visible at comparable elevations within a 25 km by 12 km region encompassing coastlines of West Seattle, Bremerton, East Bremerton, Port Orchard, and Waterman Point. Considering sea level changes since A.D. 900, the maximum uplift magnitudes of shoreline inner edges approach 9 m and are located at the southernmost coastline of Bainbridge Island and the northern tip of Waterman Point, while tilt magnitudes are modest - approaching 0.1 degrees. For each of several different Seattle fault geometry interpretations, we use a linear inversion code to solve for distributed slip on the fault surfaces. Moment magnitudes of 7.2 to 7.4 are calculated directly from the different slip solutions. In general, the greatest slip of the A.D. 900 event was confined to the frontal thrust of the Seattle fault system and was centered beneath Puget Sound between Restoration Point and Alki Point.

Jordan R. Muller↗

NASA NTRS1996

Surface and Atmospheric Parameter Retrieval From AVIRIS Data: The Importance of Non-Linear Effects

AVIRIS data represent a new and important approach for the retrieval of atmospheric and surface parameters from optical remote sensing data. Not only as a test for future space systems, but also as an operational airborne remote sensing system, the development of algorithms to retrieve information from AVIRIS data is an important step to these new approaches and capabilities. Many things have been learned since AVIRIS became operational, and the successive technical improvements in the hardware and the more sophisticated calibration techniques employed have increased the quality of the data to the point of almost meeting optimum user requirements. However, the potential capabilities of imaging spectrometry over the standard multispectral techniques have still not been fully demonstrated. Reasons for this are the technical difficulties in handling the data, the critical aspect of calibration for advanced retrieval methods, and the lack of proper models with which to invert the measured AVIRIS radiances in all the spectral channels. To achieve the potential of imaging spectrometry, these issues must be addressed. In this paper, an algorithm to retrieve information about both atmospheric and surface parameters from AVIRIS data, by using model inversion techniques, is described. Emphasis is put on the derivation of the model itself as well as proper inversion techniques, robust to noise in the data and an inadequate ability of the model to describe natural variability in the data. The problem of non-linear effects is addressed, as it has been demonstrated to be a major source of error in the numerical values retrieved by more simple, linear-based approaches. Non-linear effects are especially critical for the retrieval of surface parameters where both scattering and absorption effects are coupled, as well as in the cases of significant multiple-scattering contributions. However, sophisticated modeling approaches can handle such non-linear effects, which are especially important over vegetated surfaces. All the data used in this study were acquired during the 1991 Multisensor Airborne Campaign (MAC-Europe), as part of the European Field Experiment on a Desertification-threatened Area (EFEDA), carried out in Spain in June-July 1991.

Green Robert O.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Evaluation of a Neural Adaptive Flight Controller

The objective of this paper is to present results from the evaluation of a direct adaptive tracking controller. The control architecture employs both pre-trained and an on-line neural networks to represent the non-linear aircraft dynamics in the model inversion portion of the controller. The aircraft model used for this evaluation is representative of the F-15 Advanced Control Technology for Integrated Vehicles (ACTIVE) aircraft. The controller was evaluated for three cases: (1) nominal conditions; (2) loss of control power; and (3) loss of control power in the presence of atmospheric turbulence. The results were compared with the existing F-15 ACTIVE conventional mode controller in all cases. The results indicate extremely desirable airframe stabilization characteristics for case (1) that do not degrade significantly for case (2) or (3) as does the conventional mode controller. It was concluded that this controller exhibits both stable and robust adaptive characteristics when subjected to mild and extreme loss of control power conditions. Integration of this neural adaptive flight controller into the full non-linear six degree-of-freedom F-15 ACTIVE simulation is recommended for evaluation in a real-time high fidelity piloted simulation environment.

Totah, Joseph J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Deduction of emissions of source gases using an objective inversion algorithm and a chemical transport model

An inversion algorithm, constructed to deduce the emissions of a source gas required to produce a specified surface concentration, is applied to the observed surface concentrations of CFC 11, methylchloroform, and methane, using a two-dimensional chemical transport model. The information utilized for this deduction process is limited to the measured atmospheric concentration of the source gas, including the associated standard deviations of these measurements. In this way the amount of objective information available in these measurements is assessed. The algorithm is shown to be capable of producing a latitudinal emissions distribution as well as the error bounds on the deduced emission distribution. The 'ill posed' nature of this inverse problem is discussed as well as the implications this has on the spatial and temporal resolution at which emissions can be resolved. Finally, a methane emission distribution is deduced which has the expected seasonal variations and consistent with results from other, more subjective, deduction studies.

Brown, Margaret↗

NASA NTRS1998

Magnetospheric Image Unfolding

The Grant was a three year grant funded under the Space Physics Supporting Research and Technology and Suborbital Program. Our objective was to develop automated techniques needed to unfold or "invert" global images of the magnetospheric ion populations obtained by the new magnetospheric imaging techniques (ENA, EUV) in anticipation of future missions such as the Magnetospheric Imager and, now, IMAGE. Our focus on the present three year grant is to determine the degree to which such images can quantitatively constrain the global electromagnetic properties of the magnetosphere. In a previous three year grant period we successfully automated a forward modeling inversion algorithm, demonstrated that these inversions are robust in the face of realistic instrumental considerations such as counting statistics and backgrounds, applied error analysis techniques to the extracted parameters using variational procedures, implemented very realistic magnetospheric test images to test the inversion algorithms using the Rice University Magnetospheric Specification Model, and began the process of generating parametric models with the flexibility to handle the realistic magnetospheric images (e.g. Roelof et al, 1992; 1993). Our plan for the present 3 year grant period was to complete the development of the inversion tools needed to handle realistic magnetospheric images, assess the degree to which global electrodynamics is quantitatively constrained by ENA images of the magnetosphere, and bring the inversion of EUV images up to the maturity that we will have achieved for the ENA imaging. Below the accomplishments of our three year effort are present followed by a list of our presentations and publications. The accomplishments of all three years are presented here, and thus some of these items appeared on interim progress reports.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the feasibility of using downwind methods to quantify point source oil and gas emissions using continuously monitoring fence-line sensors

The dependable reporting of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from point sources, such as fugitive leaks from oil and gas infrastructure, is important for profit maximization (retaining more hydrocarbons), evaluating climate impacts, assessing CH 4 fees for regulatory programs, and validating CH 4 intensity in differentiated gas programs. Currently, there are disagreements between emissions reported by different quantification techniques for the same sources. It has been suggested that downwind CH 4 quantification methods using CH 4 measurements on the fence line of production facilities could be used to generate emission estimates from oil and gas operations at the site level, but it is currently unclear how accurate the quantified emissions are. To investigate the accuracy of downwind methods, this study uses fence-line simulated data collected during controlled-release experiments as input for a non-standard closed-path eddy covariance (EC), the Gaussian plume inverse model (GPIM), and the backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLs) model in a range of atmospheric conditions. This study's EC attempt was unsuccessful due to data collection and instrumentation issues, resulting in invalid results characterized by underestimated emissions, large negative fluxes, and cospectra/ogives that deviated from their ideal shapes. Consequently, the EC results could not be compared with the GPIM and bLS model. The bLs model demonstrated the highest accuracy for single-release single-point emissions, though it exhibited greater uncertainty than GPIM under multi-release conditions. Across the GPIM and bLs model, the most reliable quantification was achieved with 15 min averaging and a narrow 5° wind sector range. Although EC was limited in this context, future studies should consider employing a standard EC system and further optimizing GPIM and bLs approaches – particularly for complex multi-source scenarios – to enhance quantification accuracy and reduce uncertainty.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Impact of Prior Biosphere Models in the Inversion of Global Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes by Assimilating OCO-2 Retrievals

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric fluxes. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in terrestrial biospheric models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Atmospheric transport models assimilating measured (in situ or space-borne) CO2 concentrations to estimate "top-down" fluxes, generally use these biospheric CO2 fluxes as a priori information. Most of the flux inversion estimates result in substantially different spatio-temporal posteriori estimates of regional and global biospheric CO2 fluxes. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission dedicated to accurately measure column CO2 (XCO2) allows for an improved understanding of global biospheric CO2 fluxes. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions facilitating better global and regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes through inversion model simulations. The specific objectives of our research are to: 1) conduct GEOS-Chem 4D-Var assimilation of OCO-2 observations, using several state-of-the-science biospheric CO2 flux models as a priori information, to better constrain terrestrial CO2 fluxes, and 2) quantify the impact of different biospheric model prior fluxes on OCO-2-assimilated a posteriori CO2 flux estimates. Here we present our assessment of the importance of these a priori fluxes by conducting Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using simulated OCO-2 observations with known "true" fluxes.

Biosphere↗

NASA NTRS2006

Using CO2:CO Correlations to Improve Inverse Analyses of Carbon Fluxes

Observed correlations between atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CO represent potentially powerful information for improving CO2 surface flux estimates through coupled CO2-CO inverse analyses. We explore the value of these correlations in improving estimates of regional CO2 fluxes in east Asia by using aircraft observations of CO2 and CO from the TRACE-P campaign over the NW Pacific in March 2001. Our inverse model uses regional CO2 and CO surface fluxes as the state vector, separating biospheric and combustion contributions to CO2. CO2-CO error correlation coefficients are included in the inversion as off-diagonal entries in the a priori and observation error covariance matrices. We derive error correlations in a priori combustion source estimates of CO2 and CO by propagating error estimates of fuel consumption rates and emission factors. However, we find that these correlations are weak because CO source uncertainties are mostly determined by emission factors. Observed correlations between atmospheric CO2 and CO concentrations imply corresponding error correlations in the chemical transport model used as the forward model for the inversion. These error correlations in excess of 0.7, as derived from the TRACE-P data, enable a coupled CO2-CO inversion to achieve significant improvement over a CO2-only inversion for quantifying regional fluxes of CO2.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Recent Improvements in the Dart Model for Atmosphere, Topography, Large Landscape, Chlorophyll Fluorescence, Satellite Image Inversion

Physical models simulating the radiative budget (RB) and remote sensing (RS) observation of three-dimensional (3D) landscapes are critical to better understand human and natural components of the Earth system and further develop RS technology. DART is one of the most comprehensive 3D models of Earth-atmosphere optical radiative transfer (RT), from ultraviolet (UV) to thermal infrared (TIR). It simulates the optical signal of proximal, aerial and satellite imaging spectrometers and laser scanners, the 3D RB and solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) signal, for any urban or natural landscape and any experimental or instrument configuration. It is freely available for research and teaching activities (https://dart.omp.eu). Here, five recent advances are presented. 1) Atmosphere RT. 2) RT in non repetitive topography. 3) Monte Carlo modelling for fast RS image simulation of large landscapes. 4) SIF modelling for vegetation simulated as facets and turbid cells. 5) RS image inversion for mapping the optical properties of urban material and the urban radiative budget.

DART↗

NASA NTRS1980

Gravity and magnetic anomaly modeling and correlation using the SPHERE program and Magsat data

The spherical Earth inversion, modeling, and contouring software were tested and modified for processing data in the Southern Hemisphere. Preliminary geologic/tectonic maps and selected cross sections for South and Central America and the Caribbean region are being compiled and as well as gravity and magnetic models for the major geological features of the area. A preliminary gravity model of the Andeas Beniff Zone was constructed so that the density columns east and west of the subducted plates are in approximate isostatic equilibrium. The magnetic anomaly for the corresponding magnetic model of the zone is being computed with the SPHERE program. A test tape containing global magnetic measurements was converted to a tape compatible with Purdue's CDC system. NOO data were screened for periods of high diurnal activity and reduced to anomaly form using the IGS-75 model. Magnetic intensity anomaly profiles were plotted on the conterminous U.S. map using the track lines as the anomaly base level. The transcontinental magnetic high seen in POGO and MAGSAT data is also represented in the NOO data.

Braile, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Saunois, Marielle↗

DOE OSTI2026

How Well Can CMIP6 Models Represent the Observed Influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall?

This study evaluates the ability of CMIP6 climate models to simulate the observed effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability. Using observational data and the large ensemble historical simulations of seven CMIP6 models from 1950 to 2014, we applied a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to isolate the impacts of tropical Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs and their interaction on the interannual variability of ISMR. Overall, CMIP6 models well reproduced the observed enhanced (reduced) ISMR variability from Pacific SSTAs (Indian Ocean SSTAs and the Indo-Pacific interaction), but with varying spatial patterns and magnitudes. While CESM2 and E3SM-2-0 showed the best agreement with observations for the effects of Pacific SSTAs and the Indo-Pacific interaction, respectively, CMIP6 models showed mixed results for the impacts from Indian Ocean SSTAs. Composite analysis of ISMR anomalies during the developing phases of pure and co-occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events revealed that the impacts from Pacific SSTAs were captured reasonably well by E3SM-2-0, CESM2, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, while E3SM-2-0 also showed the best agreement with observations for the effects from the Indo-Pacific interaction. However, all models showed substantial biases in simulating the Indian Ocean SSTA impacts on ISMR, especially for pure El Niño events. Overall, this study provides new insights into how individual CMIP6 models simulate the isolated impacts from the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, which has important applications for improving ISMR predictions and interpreting ISMR future projections.

monsoon↗

NASA NTRS2013

Soil Moisture Estimate Under Forest Using a Semi-Empirical Model at P-Band

Here we present the result of a semi-empirical inversion model for soil moisture retrieval using the three backscattering coefficients: sigma(sub HH), sigma(sub VV) and sigma(sub HV). In this paper we focus on the soil moisture estimate and use the biomass as an ancillary parameter estimated automatically from the algorithm and used as a validation parameter, We will first remind the model analytical formulation. Then we will sow some results obtained with real SAR data and compare them to ground estimates.

soil moisture↗

NASA NTRS1993

Extended ecosystem signatures with application to Eos synergism requirements

The primary objective is to define the advantages of synergistically combining optical and microwave remote sensing measurements for the determination of biophysical properties important in ecosystem modeling. This objective was approached in a stepwise fashion starting with ground-based observations of controlled agricultural and orchard canopies and progressing to airborne observations of more natural forest ecosystems. This observational program is complemented by a parallel effort to model the visible reflectance and microwave scattering properties of composite vegetation canopies. The goals of the modeling studies are to verify our basic understanding of the sensor-scene interaction physics and to provide the basis for development of inverse models optimized for retrieval of key biophysical properties. These retrieval algorithms can then be used to simulate the expected performance of various aspects of Eos including the need for simultaneous SAR and HIRIS observations or justification for other (non-synchronous) relative timing constraints and the frequency, polarization, and angle of incidence requirements for accurate biophysical parameter extractions. This program completed a very successful series of truck-mounted experiments, made remarkable progress in development and validation of optical reflectance and microwave scattering models for vegetation, extended the scattering models to accommodate discontinuous and periodic canopies, developed inversion approaches for surface and canopy properties, and disseminated these results widely through symposia and journal publications. In addition, the third generation of the computer code for the microwave scattering models was provided to a number of other US, Canadian, Australian, and European investigators who are currently presenting and publishing results using the MIMICS research code.

Ulaby, Fawwaz T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Methane Budget 2000–2020

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH4 emissions compared to those of CO2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH4 yr−1). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH4 yr−1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH4 yr−1) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH4 yr−1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH4 yr−1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty (∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH4 yr−1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH4 yr−1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GKQ9-2RHT (Martinez et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Applications of the BIOPHYS Algorithm for Physically-Based Retrieval of Biophysical, Structural and Forest Disturbance Information

Canopy reflectance model inversion using look-up table approaches provides powerful and flexible options for deriving improved forest biophysical structural information (BSI) compared with traditional statistical empirical methods. The BIOPHYS algorithm is an improved, physically-based inversion approach for deriving BSI for independent use and validation and for monitoring, inventory and quantifying forest disturbance as well as input to ecosystem, climate and carbon models. Based on the multiple-forward mode (MFM) inversion approach, BIOPHYS results were summarized from different studies (Minnesota/NASA COVER; Virginia/LEDAPS; Saskatchewan/BOREAS), sensors (airborne MMR; Landsat; MODIS) and models (GeoSail; GOMS). Applications output included forest density, height, crown dimension, branch and green leaf area, canopy cover, disturbance estimates based on multi-temporal chronosequences, and structural change following recovery from forest fires over the last century. Good correspondences with validation field data were obtained. Integrated analyses of multiple solar and view angle imagery further improved retrievals compared with single pass data. Quantifying ecosystem dynamics such as the area and percent of forest disturbance, early regrowth and succession provide essential inputs to process-driven models of carbon flux. BIOPHYS is well suited for large-area, multi-temporal applications involving multiple image sets and mosaics for assessing vegetation disturbance and quantifying biophysical structural dynamics and change. It is also suitable for integration with forest inventory, monitoring, updating, and other programs.

Peddle, Derek R.↗