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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

CRAGE-RB-PI-seq reveals transcriptional dynamics of plant-associated bacteria during root colonization

Plant roots release a wide array of metabolites into the rhizosphere, shaping microbial communities and their functions. While metagenomics has expanded our understanding of these communities, little is known about the physiology of their members in host environments. Transcriptome analysis via RNA sequencing is a common approach to learning more, but its use has been challenging because of low bacterial biomass and interference from plant RNA. To overcome this, we developed a randomly-barcoded promoter-library insertion sequencing (RB-PI-seq) combined with chassis-independent recombinase-assisted genome engineering (CRAGE). Using Pseudomonas simiae WCS417 as a model rhizobacterium, this method enabled targeted amplification of barcoded transcripts, bypassing plant RNA interference and allowing measurement of thousands of promoter activities during Arabidopsis root colonization. Our analysis revealed temporally resolved transcriptional regulation, including those associated with cell growth, chemotaxis, plant immune suppression, biofilm formation, and stress responses, reflecting the coordinated physiological adaptation to the root environment. Additionally, we discovered that transcriptional activation of xanthine dehydrogenase and a lysozyme inhibitor is crucial for evading plant immune systems. This framework is scalable to other bacterial species and provides new opportunities for understanding rhizobacterial gene regulation in native environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strong Lensing Cosmology with Population-level Calibrated Neural Ratio Estimation

Strong gravitational lensing contains key information about cosmic acceleration. Modern and next-generation galaxy imaging surveys are expected to provide high-quality data on $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ galaxy-galaxy lensing systems. The plethora and complexity of the data are likely to present computational challenges for parameter inference methods for fitting high-dimensional likelihoods, which are often analytically intractable. Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE) efficiently computes individual likelihood ratios that can be combined into population-level posteriors. We use simulations to study the capacity of NRE to jointly predict the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$ and the total matter density $Ω_{m}$ from lensing images and companion spectroscopic information. We also introduce a post hoc posterior coverage calibration procedure that mitigates the model overconfidence that is typically found in neural density estimation applications. Our experiments show that the errors on both parameters decrease with increasing inference population sizes. In particular, for 100 lenses in a standard $Λ$CDM Universe, our calibrated NRE model achieves median fractional uncertainty of $22.8\%$ in $w$ and $2.9\%$ in $Ω_{m}$. This proof of concept demonstrates a potentially scalable approach for efficient cosmological parameter inference with large populations of galaxy-scale lenses observed in future surveys.

Jarugula, Sreevani [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000253867↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual-Baseline Search for Active-to-Sterile Neutrino Oscillations in NOvA

We report a search for neutrino oscillations to sterile neutrinos under a model with three active and one sterile neutrinos (3+1 model). This analysis uses the NOvA detectors exposed to the NuMI beam, running in neutrino mode. The data exposure, 13.6 × 10 20 protons on target, doubles that previously analyzed by NOvA, and the analysis is the first to use 𝜈 𝜇 charged-current interactions in conjunction with neutral-current interactions. Neutrino samples in the near and far detectors are fitted simultaneously, enabling the search to be carried out over a Δ⁢𝑚$^{2}_{41}$ range extending 2 (3) orders of magnitude above (below) 1 eV 2 . NOvA finds no evidence for active-to-sterile neutrino oscillations under the 3+1 model at 90% confidence level. New limits are reported in multiple regions of parameter space, excluding some regions currently allowed by IceCube at 90% confidence level. We additionally set the most stringent limits for anomalous 𝜈 𝜏 appearance for Δ⁢𝑚$^{2}_{41}$ ≤ 3 eV 2 .

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint analysis of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data and CMB lensing from SPT and Planck . III. Combined cosmological constraints

Here we present cosmological constraints from the analysis of two-point correlation functions between galaxy positions and galaxy lensing measured in Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data and measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck. When jointly analyzing the DES-only two-point functions and the DES cross-correlations with SPT+Planck CMB lensing, we find Ω m = 0.344 ± 0.030 and S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.773 ± 0.016, assuming ΛCDM. When additionally combining with measurements of the CMB lensing autospectrum, we find Ω m = 0.306$^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$ and S 8 = 0.792 ± 0.012. The high signal-to-noise of the CMB lensing cross-correlations enables several powerful consistency tests of these results, including comparisons with constraints derived from cross-correlations only, and comparisons designed to test the robustness of the galaxy lensing and clustering measurements from DES. Applying these tests to our measurements, we find no evidence of significant biases in the baseline cosmological constraints from the DES-only analyses or from the joint analyses with CMB lensing cross-correlations. However, the CMB lensing cross-correlations suggest possible problems with the correlation function measurements using alternative lens galaxy samples, in particular the redMaGiC galaxies and high-redshift MagLim galaxies, consistent with the findings of previous studies. We use the CMB lensing cross-correlations to identify directions for further investigating these problems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Incidence, scaling relations and physical conditions of ionized gas outflows in MaNGA

ABSTRACT In this work, we investigate the strength and impact of ionized gas outflows within z ∼ 0.04 MaNGA galaxies. We find evidence for outflows in 322 galaxies ($12{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the analysed line-emitting sample), 185 of which show evidence for hosting an active galactic nucleus (AGN). Most outflows are centrally concentrated with a spatial extent that scales sublinearly with Re. The incidence of outflows is enhanced at higher masses, central surface densities, and deeper gravitational potentials, as well as at higher star formation rate (SFR) and AGN luminosity. We quantify strong correlations between mass outflow rates and the mechanical drivers of the outflow of the form $\dot{M}_{\rm out} \propto \rm SFR^{0.97}$ and $\dot{M}_{\rm out} \propto L_{\rm AGN}^{0.55}$. We derive a master scaling relation describing the mass outflow rate of ionized gas as a function of M⋆, SFR, Re, and LAGN. Most of the observed winds are anticipated to act as galactic fountains, with the fraction of galaxies with escaping winds increasing with decreasing potential well depth. We further investigate the physical properties of the outflowing gas finding evidence for enhanced attenuation in the outflow, possibly due to metal-enriched winds, and higher excitation compared to the gas in the galactic disc. Given that the majority of previous studies have focused on more extreme systems with higher SFRs and/or more luminous AGN, our study provides a unique view of the non-gravitational gaseous motions within ‘typical’ galaxies in the low-redshift Universe, where low-luminosity AGN and star formation contribute jointly to the observed outflow phenomenology.

Avery, Charlotte R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of 𝜋 0 production in $\bar{v}_μ$ charged-current interactions in the NOvA near detector

We present a high-statistics measurement of muon antineutrino-induced charged-current neutral pion production on a hydrocarbon target using the NOvA near detector. The differential cross sections as functions of the momenta and angles of the outgoing pion and muon, the squared four-momentum transfer, and the invariant mass of the hadronic system at an average neutrino energy of 2 GeV are measured and compared with predictions from various neutrino interaction models. The results agree with the GENIE prediction but suggest that other models underestimate the cross section in the Δ⁡(1232) resonance region. These results represent the most precise measurement of antineutrino-induced neutral pion production to date.

neutrino detection↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ionization-based search for magnetic monopoles using the NOvA Far Detector

We report a search for highly ionizing magnetic monopoles in the cosmic-ray flux using a 2713-day dataset collected during 2015–2025 with the NOvA Far Detector, a 14-kt segmented detector located on Earth’s surface in Minnesota, United States. The search is sensitive to monopoles across a wide range of speeds, 7 × 10 −4 < 𝛽 < 0.995, and is sensitive to masses as low as 2 × 10 5 GeV for the fastest monopoles. No signal was observed. With the detector’s large surface area and minimal overburden, we achieve the strongest flux limits reported to date in several regions of speed and mass. For heavy monopoles with masses above 10 13 GeV that are able to reach the detector from above or—crossing Earth—from below, we find a flux limit 𝜙 90% < 2 × 10 −16 cm −2 s −1 sr −1 (90% confidence level) for monopoles with 0.005 < 𝛽 < 0.8. Across the same range of speeds, we report a limit 𝜙 90% < 8 × 10 −16 cm −2 s −1 sr −1 for light monopoles with masses above 10 8 GeV that can reach the detector from above.

magnetic monopoles↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explanation of the seasonal variation of cosmic multiple muon events observed with the NOvA Near Detector

The flux of cosmic ray muons at the Earth’s surface exhibits seasonal variations due to changes in the temperature of the atmosphere affecting the production and decay of mesons in the upper atmosphere. Using 1473 live days of data collected by the NuMI Off-axis 𝜈 𝑒 Appearance (NOvA) Near Detector during 2018–2022, we studied the seasonal pattern in the multiple-muon event rate. The data confirm an anticorrelation between the multiple-muon event rate and effective atmospheric temperature, consistent across all the years of data. Previous analyses from MINOS and NOvA saw a similar anticorrelation but did not include an explanation. We find that this anticorrelation is driven by altitude–geometry effects as the average muon production height changes with the season. This has been studied with a CORSIKA cosmic ray simulation package by varying atmospheric parameters, and provides an explanation to a longstanding discrepancy between the seasonal phases of single and multiple-muon events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing specialized biofoundries via automated adaptive laboratory evolution

Adaptive laboratory evolution (ALE) is a powerful strategy for improving microbial phenotypes by harnessing natural selection under defined environmental conditions. Through applying selection regimes, beneficial mutations accumulate, enabling the generation of strains with enhanced properties. However, conventional ALE is labor-intensive and difficult to scale, limiting reproducibility and broader discovery of evolutionary principles. Recent advances in robotics, automation, and computational infrastructure are transforming ALE into a scalable, data-rich experimental paradigm. Automated platforms enable standardized and complex protocols, real-time monitoring, and highly parallel evolution campaigns, improving consistency while generating longitudinal datasets that reveal convergent adaptive mechanisms. Here, we discuss the role of specialized biofoundries in advancing automated ALE and enabling large-scale evolutionary engineering. We review major automated ALE formats and outline key design principles for effective ALE biofoundries, highlighting how automated ALE can support autonomous experimentation and AI-guided strain engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

New directions for joint neutrino oscillation measurements with T2K and NOvA

The first joint analysis of data from the NOvA and T2K neutrino oscillations experiments was published in 2025, offering the most precise measurements of the larger mass splitting $\Delta m_{32}^{2}$, the largest mixing angle $\theta_{23}$, and the CP-violating phase $\delta_{CP}$ available at the time. In addition to working towards a reanalysis with additional data collected since that analysis, the collaborations are now exploring possible constraints on BSM physics scenarios. This poster will discuss the potential of a joint measurement of parameters in a framework treating effective non-standard neutral-current neutrino-matter interactions, NC-NSI. Uniquely, the differing baselines and energies of T2K and NOvA allow strong constraints to be set on the electron-muon and electron-tau parameters of NSI contributions to the Hamiltonian, while at the same time maintaining good sensitivity to the standard 3-flavor neutrino oscillations parameters, including the CP phase.

Mikola, Veera [Glasgow U.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

The S-PLUS Fifth Data Release: Over 4500 Square Degrees of the Southern Sky and a Multicolor View of the Hydra and Antlia Galaxy Clusters

Abstract We present the fifth data release (DR5) of the Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey (S-PLUS), covering 4592 deg 2 across 2491 fields. Observations were conducted with the T80-South, a Brazilian robotic telescope equipped with the Javalambre 12-filter system, containing five broadband and seven narrowband filters. Data products feature FITS images and extensive catalogs containing fluxes, magnitudes, and shape parameters for over 113 million detections. In addition, several value-added catalogs are provided, offering photometric redshifts (photo- zs ), object classifications, masks, and extinction coefficients. For the first time, this release includes coverage of 110 deg 2 along the Galactic disk, facilitating new research into Galactic structure and stellar populations. The release also provides full coverage of the Hydra Supercluster and numerous other nearby clusters with improved data reduction and calibration, enhancing photo- z accuracy, which is vital for large-scale structure studies. A preliminary analysis of the Hydra and Antlia galaxy clusters up to 5 × R 200 yields an updated catalog of 1706 cluster members based on both spectroscopic and high-quality photo- zs . Our photometric data shows that both clusters have a similar proportion of galaxies with an H α excess relative to their clustercentric distance, though Hydra has a higher fraction near its center. Additionally, the spatial distribution of all objects in our sample highlights a bridge connecting both clusters. We verify that S-PLUS DR5 provides a solid foundation for future scientific investigations, ranging from solar system studies to cosmology.

Vinicius Rodrigues de Lima, Erik [Universidade de ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on Nonthermal Pressure at Galaxy Cluster Outskirts from a Joint SPT and XMM-Newton Analysis

We present joint South Pole Telescope and XMM-Newton observations of eight massive galaxy clusters (0.8–2 × 10$^{15}$ M$_{⊙}$) spanning a redshift range of 0.16–0.35. Employing a novel Sunyaev–Zel’dovich + X-ray fitting technique, we effectively constrain the thermodynamic properties of these clusters out to the virial radius. The resulting best-fit electron density, deprojected temperature, and deprojected pressure profiles are in good agreement with previous observations of massive clusters. For the majority of the cluster sample (five out of eight clusters), the entropy profiles exhibit a self-similar behavior near the virial radius. We further derive hydrostatic mass, gas mass, and gas fraction profiles for all clusters up to the virial radius. Comparing the enclosed gas fraction profiles with the universal gas fraction profile, we obtain nonthermal pressure fraction profiles for our cluster sample at >0.5R$_{500}$, demonstrating a steeper increase between R$_{500}$ and R$_{200}$ that is consistent with the hydrodynamical simulations. Our analysis yields nonthermal pressure fraction ranges of 8%–28% (median: 15% ± 11%) at R$_{500}$ and 21%–35% (median: 27% ± 12%) at R$_{200}$. Notably, weak-lensing mass measurements are available for only four clusters in our sample, and our recovered total cluster masses, after accounting for nonthermal pressure, are consistent with these measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Abstract Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface‐level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface‐ and shallow‐foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator–prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface‐level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species‐ and community‐level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub‐mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bioconversion of self-neutralized chemically depolymerized lignin streams into polyhydroxyalkanoates

Lignin is a chemically complex, diverse, and abundant plant polymer mainly composed of aromatic monomers. These aromatic monomers make lignin a potential source of aromatics and a viable substitute for petrochemically-derived aromatics. However, the structural recalcitrance of lignin requires harsh reagents from the chemical process and expensive catalysts for effective depolymerization. This chemical process often results in poor yields of chemical intermediate mixtures of varying bioavailability and/or toxicity. Furthermore, the cost of additional reagents required to separate or detoxify these intermediates makes processing lignin impractical. We report progress towards the use of such chemically depolymerized lignin streams by employing bacterial strains to produce polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA). PHAs are a group of biodegradable microbial polyesters that have potential as a replacement for petroleum-based plastics. In this study we utilized two distinct lignin streams obtained after chemical depolymerization of lignin under alkaline and acidic pH in the presence of catalysts. We mixed the alkali-treated depolymerized stream with the acid-treated depolymerized stream to create a solution of neutral-pH chemically depolymerized lignin (CDL). We found moderate to substantial growth of both native and non-native PHA producers on the mixture of CDL as well as its aliphatic and aromatic components. PHA was detected by Sudan Black B staining in C. necator H16, P. putida KT2440, and E. coli LSBJ STQKAB grown on mixed CDL as the sole carbon source. For C. necator H16 and E. coli LSBJ STQKAB we found that PHA content was greater when grown on mixed CDL when compared to their preferred carbon source by GC-FID quantification. Our study provided progress towards a cost-competitive, sustainable, and industrially relevant use for lignin.

Winkler, Gordon L. W. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating the architecture and internal structure of the TOI-561 system planets with CHEOPS, HARPS-N, and TESS

ABSTRACT We present a precise characterization of the TOI-561 planetary system obtained by combining previously published data with TESS and CHEOPS photometry, and a new set of 62 HARPS-N radial velocities (RVs). Our joint analysis confirms the presence of four transiting planets, namely TOI-561 b (P = 0.45 d, R = 1.42 R⊕, M = 2.0 M⊕), c (P = 10.78 d, R = 2.91 R⊕, M = 5.4 M⊕), d (P = 25.7 d, R = 2.82 R⊕, M = 13.2 M⊕), and e (P = 77 d, R = 2.55 R⊕, M = 12.6 R⊕). Moreover, we identify an additional, long-period signal (>450 d) in the RVs, which could be due to either an external planetary companion or to stellar magnetic activity. The precise masses and radii obtained for the four planets allowed us to conduct interior structure and atmospheric escape modelling. TOI-561 b is confirmed to be the lowest density (ρb = 3.8 ± 0.5 g cm−3) ultra-short period (USP) planet known to date, and the low metallicity of the host star makes it consistent with the general bulk density-stellar metallicity trend. According to our interior structure modelling, planet b has basically no gas envelope, and it could host a certain amount of water. In contrast, TOI-561 c, d, and e likely retained an H/He envelope, in addition to a possibly large water layer. The inferred planetary compositions suggest different atmospheric evolutionary paths, with planets b and c having experienced significant gas loss, and planets d and e showing an atmospheric content consistent with the original one. The uniqueness of the USP planet, the presence of the long-period planet TOI-561 e, and the complex architecture make this system an appealing target for follow-up studies.

Lacedelli, G. (ORCID:0000000241977374)↗
DOE OSTI2022

The False Dilemma: Rethinking AF Science and Technology Officer Talent Management

In 2019, Secretary of the Air Force (SECAF) Heather Wilson launched the 2030 Science and Technology (S&T) Strategy by stating, “The advantage will go to those who create the best technologies and who integrate and field them in creative operational ways that provide military advantages.” In 2021, 15% of Air Force general officers responsible for creating and integrating this technological edge had a science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) graduate degree, and less than 1% of generals had a STEM doctorate. As one point of comparison, at least 32% and 13% of founding CEOs of Fortune 500 technology companies had a master’s and doctoral STEM degree, respectively. The gulf is larger when you consider that these CEOs used their technical degrees throughout their careers whereas most general officers do not. In large organizations, if the leader does not possess technical knowledge, it is difficult to drive innovation systems and connect ideas to reality. The evidence for this disconnect is abundant in acquisition challenges for high-tech systems, significant pushback to the “revolution in military affairs”, and failure of the “Third Offset” to take hold and deliver capabilities to offset Chinese and Russian capabilities. Indeed, when the former Air Force and Space Force Chief Software Officer, Nicolas M. Chaillan, offered his resignation, one of the main reasons for leaving was “the failure of OSD and the Joint Staff to deliver on their own alleged top ‘priority’, JADC2 – they couldn’t ‘walk the walk.’” Senior leaders have recognized this disconnect, and several inquiries and studies regarding STEM competency have been conducted. Many have posed a false dilemma: a large, STEM-cognizant or small, STEM-expert force. However, current and future STEM human capital needs are managed at the unit and functional area level. This leads to “silos” and the tactical “needs of the present” dominating the strategic “needs of the future”, highlighted by only two functional areas systematically tracking future STEM needs. Therefore, the decision on force structure appears to have been historically made by default through these and other perceived structural realities, and a vast majority of recommendations have focused on the small STEM community – an exercise in diminishing returns. In essence, the solution often boils down to finding unicorns – officers that have chartered the unforgiving pathway through the traditional “gates” to general officer while obtaining sufficient STEM proficiency along the way. Fortunately for the Air Force, these officers exist, albeit at a rate below what the evidence would suggest is necessary. However, this approach fundamentally limits the ability to develop a deep pool of officers with the ability to create and integrate technologies and ensures the Dunning-Kruger effect is prevalent. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where those with limited knowledge in an area lack the expertise necessary to recognize their lack of expertise and consequently are prone to overestimate their knowledge and performance. In short, we need less leaders overestimating their STEM knowledge and more with hard-earned STEM competency required to “walk the walk” to create and integrate technologies for military advantage. This will not be accomplished by restricting the emphasis to the traditional scientists and engineering (S&E) career fields – the pool, only 10% of line officers, and general officer progression is just too small. Fortunately, the recent SECAF’s Management Initiatives and Chief of Staff’s (CSAF) Action Orders, both containing emphasis on organic expertise to “accrue advantage in military-technological competition,” present an opportunity to truly develop a framework for the force of the future.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Extended Baryonic Tully–Fisher Relation for SDSS MaNGA Galaxies

The baryonic Tully–Fisher relation (BTFR), a relationship between the rotational velocity and baryonic mass in spiral galaxies, probes the relative content of baryonic and total mass in galaxies and thus provides a good test of dark matter content in galaxies. Using Hα kinematics, we model the rotation curves of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey MaNGA DR17 spiral galaxies. To extend the BTFR to higher masses with elliptical galaxies, we estimate their total masses from their stellar velocity dispersions using the virial theorem and define the effective rotational velocity as the velocity a rotation-supported galaxy would exhibit given this mass. The baryonic mass of spiral galaxies is composed of stellar, H I , H 2 , and He mass, while only the stellar mass is used for the baryonic content of ellipticals. We construct joint BTFRs for 5743 MaNGA spiral and elliptical galaxies, TNG100 simulated galaxies with baryonic masses greater than 10 9 M ⊙ , and a cross-matched subsample between these two datasets (3149 spiral and 1423 elliptical galaxies). For the cross-matched subsample, we find agreement in the slopes between observed and simulated galaxies. We find a slope of $3.8{6}_{-0.62}^{+0.92}$ for the full MaNGA sample, which agrees well with the slope of 4.0 predicted by MOND and the fitted slope of $3.5{8}_{-0.38}^{+0.48}$ for the TNG100 galaxies. We find that a sample of lower-mass galaxies is necessary to differentiate between the two models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are a leading source of uncertainty in estimates of the historical effective radiative forcing (ERF). One reason for this uncertainty is the difficulty in estimating the ERF from aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) in climate models, which typically requires multiple calls to the radiation code. Most commonly used methods also cannot disentangle the contributions from different processes to ERFaci. Here, we develop a new, computationally efficient method for estimating the shortwave (SW) ERFaci from liquid clouds using histograms of monthly averaged cloud fraction partitioned by cloud droplet effective radius (r e ) and liquid water path (LWP). Multiplying the histograms with SW cloud radiative kernels gives the total SW ERFaci from liquid clouds, which can be decomposed into contributions from the Twomey effect, LWP adjustments, and cloud fraction (CF) adjustments. We test the method with data from five CMIP6-era models, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument simulator to generate the histograms. Our method gives similar total SW ERFaci estimates to other established methods in regions of prevalent liquid cloud and indicates that the Twomey effect, LWP adjustments, and CF adjustments have contributed -0.34 ± 0.23, -0.22 ± 0.13, and -0.09 ± 0.11 W m -2 , respectively, to the effective radiative forcing of the climate since 1850 in the ensemble mean (95 % confidence). These results demonstrate that widespread adoption of a MODIS r e –LWP joint histogram diagnostic would allow the SW ERFaci and its components to be quickly and accurately diagnosed from climate model outputs, a crucial step for reducing uncertainty in the historical ERF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗