Joint Estimation of Operational Topology and Outages for Unbalanced Power Distribution Systems
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Engineering↗
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Sensitivity of a Subject-specific Ankle Sprain Simulation to Extrinsic Versus Intrinsic Biomechanical Factors
Ankle sprains are the most common musculoskeletal injury in sport and military activity, despite existing prophylactic strategies. The purpose of this report was to develop a probabilistic simulation of lateral ankle sprains during single-limb drop landing, towards accelerating innovation in ankle sprain prevention. A deterministic, subject-specific musculoskeletal model was extended with automation and probabilistic distributions on sprain-related biomechanical factors. Probabilistic simulations were generated using traditional Monte Carlo techniques and the advanced mean value method, a more computationally-efficient approach. Predicted distributions of peak ankle joint rotations, velocities, and moments borne by supporting passive structures agreed favorably with the deterministic model and with reports of real sprain biomechanics. Parameter sensitivities identified that predictions were most strongly influenced by drop height, subtalar joint posture at contact, invertor/evertor co-activation, and passive ankle stiffness. The advanced mean value method predicted confidence bounds comparable to a 1000-trial Monte Carlo simulation, and required only 14 model evaluations and 4-min processing time. The extended probabilistic simulation may be useful to virtually test new prophylactic strategies for ankle sprains, and is made available for open-source use (https://simtk.org/projects/sprain-sim).
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Bayesian Spatially Varying Multi-Regularization Image Deblurring
Many scientific experiments such as those found in astronomy, geology, microbiology, and X-ray radiography require the use of high-energy instruments to capture images. Since blur and noise are inevitably present in any imaging system, the images must be \deblurred" to extract the full information content. Mathematically, image deblurring is an ill-posed inverse problem that requires regularization. The regularization, in turn, has a large effect on the deblurred image: different regularization strengths, and types, lead to drastically different reconstructions. Moreover, many images contain a mixture of smooth and sharp features which suggests the use of multi-regularization, i.e., varying the type of regularization (e.g. Tikhonov or total variation) across the image. We address these issues by formulating the image deblurring problem within a hierarchical Bayesian framework in which we spatially adapt the strength of the regularization and also vary the regularization type across the image. In this way, the image itself, along with corresponding regularization strength at each pixel, are described jointly by a posterior distribution which we can sample by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We illustrate our techniques on simplified test problems and apply them to high-energy X-ray images taken at the Nevada National Security Site. Numerical tests show that our new method is robustly applicable and increases the quality of the image reconstruction when compared to other (Bayesian) methods.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Data-driven prediction of scaling and ignition of inertial confinement fusion experiments
Recent advances in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), including ignition and energy gain, are enabled by a close coupling between experiments and high-fidelity simulations. Neither simulations nor experiments can fully constrain the behavior of ICF implosions on their own, meaning pre- and postshot simulation studies must incorporate experimental data to be reliable. Linking past data with simulations to make predictions for upcoming designs and quantifying the uncertainty in those predictions has been an ongoing challenge in ICF research. We have developed a data-driven approach to prediction and uncertainty quantification that combines large ensembles of simulations with Bayesian inference and deep learning. The approach builds a predictive model for the statistical distribution of key performance parameters, which is jointly informed by past experiments and physics simulations. The prediction distribution captures the impact of experimental uncertainty, expert priors, design changes, and shot-to-shot variations. We have used this new capability to predict a 10× increase in ignition probability between Hybrid-E shots driven with 2.05 MJ compared to 1.9 MJ, and validated our predictions against subsequent experiments. We describe our new Bayesian postshot and prediction capabilities, discuss their application to NIF ignition and validate the results, and finally investigate the impact of data sparsity on our prediction results.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Impact of Backing Plate and Thermal Boundary Conditions for High-Speed Friction Stir Welding of 25-mm Thick Aluminum Alloy 7175-T79
Here this study demonstrates high-speed (150 mm/min) single pass friction stir butt joining of 25 mm thick aluminum alloy 7175-T79. To understand the impact of quenching and cooling rate on process responses, joint strength, and grain size distributions across the weld thickness, we performed a series of friction stir welding (FSW) trials in air and with a trailing water spray using steel and composite backing plates (BP). Welds made in air and trailing water spray exhibit significantly different hardness distributions across the nugget, heat affected zone (HAZ), and HAZ minimum hardness as evidenced by detailed microhardness mapping. The effect of trailing water spray (TWS) on joint efficiency overshadows the influence of BP composition due to the vastly different contribution to quenching. TWS also resulted in a multifaceted effect on FSW such as lowering processing temperature, increasing X and Z forces while lowering Y force, and narrow heat affecting zone. Finally, digital image correlation (DIC)-based fracture mode analysis and grain size measurements correlate with the hardness distribution.
42 ENGINEERING↗
RadVolViz: An Information Display-Inspired Transfer Function Editor for Multivariate Volume Visualization
In volume visualization transfer functions are widely used for mapping voxel properties to color and opacity. Typically, volume density data are scalars which require simple 1D transfer functions to achieve this mapping. If the volume densities are vectors of three channels, one can straightforwardly map each channel to either red, green or blue, which requires a trivial extension of the 1D transfer function editor. Here, we devise a new method that applies to volume data with more than three channels. These types of data often arise in scientific scanning applications, where the data are separated into spectral bands or chemical elements. Our method expands on prior work in which a multivariate information display, RadViz, was fused with a radial color map, in order to visualize multi-band 2D images. In this work, we extend this joint interface to blended volume rendering. The information display allows users to recognize the presence and value distribution of the multivariate voxels and the joint volume rendering display visualizes their spatial distribution. We design a set of operators and lenses that allow users to interactively control the mapping of the multivariate voxels to opacity and color. This enables users to isolate or emphasize volumetric structures with desired multivariate properties. Furthermore, it turns out that our method also enables more insightful displays even for RGB data. We demonstrate our method with three datasets obtained from spectral electron microscopy, high energy X-ray scanning, and atmospheric science.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Proactive demand-side participation: Centralized versus transactive demand-Supply coordination
The active participation of demand-side flexible resources in the wholesale market price formation and load dispatch process is crucial to encouraging demand-side participation. This calls for a joint supply-demand coordination mechanism to fully take advantage of the flexible resources in distribution systems, including distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive loads (RLs). Here this paper aims at comparing and evaluating the centralized and transactive distribution-level market coordination mechanisms. We introduce the centralized and transactive demand-supply coordination mechanisms for the distribution-level market and elaborate on the structural difference between the two frameworks. Relevant metrics and test scenarios are proposed for a meaningful comparison. The key observations of the comparative study are generalized from the perspective of different entities in the market: fixed loads, flexible loads, DERs, and conventional generators. It is observed that while the centralized approach leads to socially optimum solutions, the transactive approach by allowing for competitive bidding at the distribution-level, results in clearing higher flexible demand, and thus higher electricity cost at the transmission-level. As a result, DERs and fixed loads receive a higher surplus in the centralized approach, while conventional generators and flexible loads are more profitable in the transactive approach.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Using quasar X-ray and UV flux measurements to constrain cosmological model parameters
ABSTRACT Risaliti and Lusso have compiled X-ray and UV flux measurements of 1598 quasars (QSOs) in the redshift range 0.036 ≤ z ≤ 5.1003, part of which, z ∼ 2.4 − 5.1, is largely cosmologically unprobed. In this paper we use these QSO measurements, alone and in conjunction with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) and Hubble parameter [H(z)] measurements, to constrain cosmological parameters in six different cosmological models, each with two different Hubble constant priors. In most of these models, given the larger uncertainties, the QSO cosmological parameter constraints are mostly consistent with those from the BAO + H(z) data. A somewhat significant exception is the non-relativistic matter density parameter Ωm0 where QSO data favour Ωm0 ∼ 0.5 − 0.6 in most models. As a result, in joint analyses of QSO data with H(z) + BAO data the 1D Ωm0 distributions shift slightly towards larger values. A joint analysis of the QSO + BAO + H(z) data is consistent with the current standard model, spatially-flat ΛCDM, but mildly favours closed spatial hypersurfaces and dynamical dark energy. Since the higher Ωm0 values favoured by QSO data appear to be associated with the z ∼ 2 − 5 part of these data, and conflict somewhat with strong indications for Ωm0 ∼ 0.3 from most z < 2.5 data as well as from the cosmic microwave background anisotropy data at z ∼ 1100, in most models, the larger QSO data Ωm0 is possibly more indicative of an issue with the z ∼ 2 − 5 QSO data than of an inadequacy of the standard flat ΛCDM model.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
A warm super-Neptune around the G-dwarf star TOI-1710 revealed with TESS, SOPHIE, and HARPS-N
We report the discovery and characterization of the transiting extrasolar planet TOI-1710 b. It was first identified as a promising candidate by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. Its planetary nature was then established with SOPHIE and HARPS-N spectroscopic observations via the radial-velocity method. The stellar parameters for the host star are derived from the spectra and a joint Markov chain Monte-Carlo adjustment of the spectral energy distribution and evolutionary tracks of TOI-1710. A joint MCMC analysis of the TESS light curve and the radial-velocity evolution allows us to determine the planetary system properties. From our analysis, TOI 1710 b is found to be a massive warm super-Neptune (M p = 28.3 ± 4.7 M ⊕ and R p = 5.34 ± 0.11 R ⊕ ) orbiting a G5V dwarf star (T eff = 5665 ± 55 K) on a nearly circular 24.3-day orbit (e = 0.16 ± 0.08). The orbital period of this planet is close to the estimated rotation period of its host star P rot = 22.5 ± 2.0 days and it has a low Keplerian semi-amplitude K = 6.4 ± 1.0 m s -1 ; we thus performed additional analyses to show the robustness of the retrieved planetary parameters. With a low bulk density of 1.03 ± 0.23 g cm -3 and orbiting a bright host star (J = 8.3, V = 9.6), TOI-1710 b is one of the best targets in this mass-radius range (near the Neptunian desert) for atmospheric characterization via transmission spectroscopy, a key measurement in constraining planet formation and evolutionary models of sub-Jovian planets.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Cybersecurity Certification Standard for Distributed Energy and Inverter Based Resources
NREL and UL co-presented on their joint effort to develop a cybersecurity certification standard for distributed energy resources (DERs) at a meeting of the Cybersecurity Advisory Team for State Solar (CATSS). The advisory team is hosted by NASEO & NARUC. The presentation outlined the benefits of a cybersecurity certification standard, the outcomes of previous initiatives, how this effort reflects the evolving electric grid, and the role of state energy offices. UL explained their role as a trusted third party with expertise to lead this effort and the process from Outline of Investigation (OOI) to a certification standard.
BPS↗
Guaranteed Phase & Topology Identification in Three Phase Distribution Grids
We present a method for joint phase identification and topology recovery in unbalanced three phase radial networks using only voltage measurements. By recovering phases and topology jointly, we utilize all three phase voltage measurements and can handle networks where some buses have a subset of three phases. Our method is theoretically justified by a novel linearized formulation of unbalanced three phase power flow and makes precisely defined and reasonable assumptions on line impedances and load statistics. We validate our method on three IEEE test networks simulated under realistic conditions in OpenDSS, comparing our performance to the state of the art. In addition to providing a new method for phase and topology recovery, our intuitively structured linearized model will provide a foundation for future work in this and other applications.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Joint modelling of astrophysical systematics for cosmology with LSST cosmic shear
ABSTRACT We present a novel framework for jointly modelling the weak lensing source galaxy redshift distribution and the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies through a shared luminosity function (LF). In the context of a Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Year 1 and Year 10 cosmic shear analysis, we show that our novel approach produces cosmological parameter constraints which are comparable to standard methods, while offering more physical insight into IA and selection effects. We clarify the relationship between individual parameters of a Schechter LF and the redshift distribution of a magnitude-limited sample, showing the consequences of marginalizing over these parameters when modelling IAs in standard cosmic shear analyses. We explore the impact of the shape of the LF on the cosmic shear data vector, and we outline the potential of this method to naturally model selection functions in redshift distribution estimation. Although this work focuses on LSST cosmic shear, the proposed joint modelling framework is broadly applicable to weak lensing surveys.
Šarčević, Nikolina (ORCID:0000000173016415)↗
Spatio-Temporal Deep Graph Network for Event Detection, Localization, and Classification in Cyber-Physical Electric Distribution System
This work proposes a deep graph learning framework to identify, locate, and classify power, cyber, and cyber power events at the distribution system level. The proposed algorithm jointly exploits spatial, temporal, and node-level cyber and physical data features. The developed graph neural network, together with a deep autoencoder, utilizes physical measurements from distribution level phasor measurement units and cyber data from communication network logs. The spatial structure of the synchrophasor measurements and network is incorporated through a weighted adjacency matrix. The temporal structure is incorporated by defining a spatial operation in the gated recurrent unit. This spatio-temporal learning element resides inside a power event detection, localization, and classification module that provides the degree of confidence for an event label. To accurately pinpoint the location of an event to the nearest bus equipped with a measurement unit, a combination of squared error and proximity score is utilized. Also included is a cyber event detection module that employs heteroskedasticity to analyze the significance of various cyber features during different types of attacks. Finally, a dual-bit cyber-power decision table determines the nature of the event. The proposed method is validated on two distribution systems modeled in OPAL-RT/Hypersim with limited phasor measurement units for different possible physical and cyber events. Further analyses include comparison with other state-of-the-art methods and validation in the presence of measurement noise. As a result, our method outperforms existing approaches and achieves an average detection accuracy of 97.97%, F1-score of 96.88%, precision of 96.53%, and recall of 98.57%.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
From Hydrometeor Size Distribution Measurements to Projections of Wind Turbine Blade Leading-Edge Erosion
Wind turbine blade leading-edge erosion (LEE) is a cause of increased operation and maintenance costs and decreased annual energy production. Thus, detailed, site-specific quantification of likely erosion conditions are critically needed to inform wind plant owner/operator decisions regarding mitigation strategies. Estimating the damage potential at a wind plant site requires accurate measurement of precipitation intensity, phase, droplet size distributions, wind speeds and their joint statistics. The current work quantifies the effect of disdrometer type on the characterization of LEE potential at a site in the US Southern Great Plains. using observations from three co-located disdrometers (an optical, an impact and a video disdrometer), along with hub-height wind-speed observations from a Doppler lidar and two LEE models: a kinetic energy model and the Springer model. Estimates of total kinetic energy of hydrometeor impacts over the four-year study period vary by as much as 38%, and coating lifetime derived from accumulated distance-to-failure estimates from the Springer model differ by an even greater amount, depending on disdrometer type. Damage potential at this site is concentrated in time, with 50% of impact kinetic energy occurring in 6–12 h per year, depending on which set of disdrometer observations is used. Rotor-speed curtailment during the most erosive 0.1–0.2% of 10 min periods is found to increase blade lifetimes and lead to the lowest levelized cost of energy.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Detecting hidden layers from spreading dynamics on complex networks
When dealing with spreading processes on networks it can be of the utmost importance to test the reliability of data and identify potential unobserved spreading paths. In this paper we address these problems and propose methods for hidden layer identification and reconstruction. We also explore the interplay between difficulty of the task and the structure of the multilayer network describing the whole system where the spreading process occurs. Our methods stem from an exact expression for the likelihood of a cascade in the susceptible-infected model on an arbitrary graph. We then show that by imploring statistical properties of unimodal distributions and simple heuristics describing joint likelihood of a series of cascades one can obtain an estimate of both existence of a hidden layer and its content with success rates far exceeding those of a null model. Furthermore, we conduct our analyses on both synthetic and real-world networks providing evidence for the viability of the approach presented.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
D$e^+e^-$ffusion: Capturing the Beam-Beam Physics of $e^+e^-$ Collisions with Diffusion Models
Beam-induced backgrounds at high-luminosity $e^+e^-$ colliders, such as the FCC-ee, are dominated by incoherent pair creation (IPC), and require computationally expensive simulations with dedicated Monte Carlo (MC) event generators. Reliable detector and machine-detector interface studies necessitate event samples that are several orders of magnitude larger than what is practically attainable with existing MC. To alleviate this bottleneck, we present D$e^+e^-$ffusion, a denoising diffusion probabilistic model that operates as a permutation-equivariant, set-valued surrogate for fast IPC simulation. Trained on a small GuineaPig++ sample, D$e^+e^-$ffusion faithfully reproduces the marginal and joint kinematic, angular, and positional distributions of all three IPC production processes. In addition, we assess the fidelity at the detector level by propagating both Geant4 and D$e^+e^-$ffusion events through a Geant4 simulation of the CLD vertex detector and by training a transformer-based two-sample classifier; the classifier achieves an area under the ROC curve of $0.553 \pm 0.016$. The trained model generates events nearly four orders of magnitude faster than Geant4, paving the way for a fast-simulation surrogate for FCC-ee design studies.
Chahine, Antonio [Imperial Coll., London]↗
Joint Matrix Completion and Compressed Sensing for State Estimation in Low-observable Distribution System
Limited measurement availability at the distribution grid presents challenges for state estimation and situational awareness. This paper combines the advantages of two sparsity-based state estimation approaches (matrix completion and compressive sensing) that have been proposed recently to address the challenge of unobservability. The proposed approach exploits both the low rank structure and a suitable transform domain representation to leverage the correlation structure of the spatio-temporal data matrix while incorporating the powerflow constraints of the distribution grid. Simulations are carried out on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 test system to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The performance results reveal - (1) the superiority over traditional matrix completion and (2) very low state estimation errors for high compression ratios representing very low observability.
Dahale, Shweta↗
Economic Dispatch With Distributed Energy Resources: Co-Optimization of Transmission and Distribution Systems
The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in the distribution networks has turned the conventionally passive load buses into active buses that can provide grid services for the transmission system. To take advantage of the DERs in the distribution networks, this letter formulates a transmission-and-distribution (T&D) systems co-optimization problem that achieves economic dispatch at the transmission level and optimal voltage regulation at the distribution level by leveraging large generators and DERs. A primal-dual gradient algorithm is proposed to solve this optimization problem jointly for T&D systems, and a distributed market-based equivalent of the gradient algorithm is used for practical implementation. Finally, the results are corroborated by numerical examples with the IEEE 39-Bus system connected with 7 different distribution networks.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗