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Based on an empirical analysis of conceptual space mission design at the JPL and NASA sites, the following are a set of factors that have been determined to lead to potential risk.
The purpose of the longitudinal research of the market penetration of cockpit weather information systems (CWIS) is to contribute to the body of knowledge on modeling advanced technology feasibility in aviation by tracking and analyzing the market adoption of CWIS over a three year period. This research takes advantage of a previous study, conducted by Dr. Paul Kauffmann in 2000, which demonstrated an integrated and cost effective approach to evaluate advanced technology feasibility, examining the feasibility of CWIS in five market segments: transport, commuter, general aviation, business, and rotorcraft. The longitudinal research consists of two consecutive studies and produced two reports. The first report was submitted in August 2003 and included general market analysis about the CWIS products in the market at the time, identified their characteristics and examined developing market dynamics.
The Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative (GoMRC) is a NASA-funded project that has as its goal to develop an integrated, working, prototype IT infrastructure for Earth science data, knowledge and models for the five Gulf U.S. states and Mexico, and to demonstrate its ability to help decision-makers better understand critical Gulf-scale issues. Within this preview, the mission of this project is to provide cross cutting solution network and rapid prototyping capability for the Gulf of Mexico region, in order to demonstrate substantial, collaborative, multi-agency research and transitional capabilities using unique NASA data sets and models to address regional problems. SERVIR Mesoamerica is seen as an excellent existing framework that can be used to integrate observational and GIs data bases, provide a sensor web interface, visualization and interactive analysis tools, archival functions, data dissemination and product generation within a Rapid Prototyping concept to assist decision-makers in better understanding Gulf-scale environmental issues.
This paper reports our experience on the development of a design-for-safety (DFS) workbench called Risk Assessment and Management Environment (RAME) for microelectronic avionics systems. Our objective is to transform DFS practice from an ad-hoc, inefficient, error-prone approach to a stringent engineering process such that DFS can keep up with the rapidly growing complexity of avionics systems. In particular, RAME is built upon an information infrastructure that comprises a fault model, a knowledge base, and a failure reporting/tracking system. This infrastructure permits systematic learning from prior projects and enables the automation of failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA). Among other unique features, the most important advantage of RAME is its capability of directly accepting design source code in hardware description languages (HDLs) for automated failure mode analysis, which enables RAME to be compatible and to evolve with most electronic-computer-aided-design systems. Through an initial experimental evaluation of the RAME prototype, we show that our approach to FMECA automation improves failure mode analysis turn-around-time, completeness, and accuracy.
Automatic Sequence Generator (Autogen) Version 3.0 software automatically generates command sequences for the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and several other JPL spacecraft operated by the multi-mission support team. Autogen uses standard JPL sequencing tools like APGEN, ASP, SEQGEN, and the DOM database to automate the generation of uplink command products, Spacecraft Command Message Format (SCMF) files, and the corresponding ground command products, DSN Keywords Files (DKF). Autogen supports all the major multi-mission mission phases including the cruise, aerobraking, mapping/science, and relay mission phases. Autogen is a Perl script, which functions within the mission operations UNIX environment. It consists of two parts: a set of model files and the autogen Perl script. Autogen encodes the behaviors of the system into a model and encodes algorithms for context sensitive customizations of the modeled behaviors. The model includes knowledge of different mission phases and how the resultant command products must differ for these phases. The executable software portion of Autogen, automates the setup and use of APGEN for constructing a spacecraft activity sequence file (SASF). The setup includes file retrieval through the DOM (Distributed Object Manager), an object database used to store project files. This step retrieves all the needed input files for generating the command products. Depending on the mission phase, Autogen also uses the ASP (Automated Sequence Processor) and SEQGEN to generate the command product sent to the spacecraft. Autogen also provides the means for customizing sequences through the use of configuration files. By automating the majority of the sequencing generation process, Autogen eliminates many sequence generation errors commonly introduced by manually constructing spacecraft command sequences. Through the layering of commands into the sequence by a series of scheduling algorithms, users are able to rapidly and reliably construct the desired uplink command products. With the aid of Autogen, sequences may be produced in a matter of hours instead of weeks, with a significant reduction in the number of people on the sequence team. As a result, the uplink product generation process is significantly streamlined and mission risk is significantly reduced. Autogen is used for operations of MRO, Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Exploration Rover (MER), Mars Odyssey, and will be used for operations of Phoenix. Autogen Version 3.0 is the operational version of Autogen including the MRO adaptation for the cruise mission phase, and was also used for development of the aerobraking and mapping mission phases for MRO.
Crew exercise is important during long-duration space flight not only for maintaining health and fitness but also for preventing adverse health problems, such as losses in muscle strength and bone density. Monitoring crew exercise via motion capture and kinematic analysis aids understanding of the effects of microgravity on exercise and helps ensure that exercise prescriptions are effective. Intelligent Automation, Inc., has developed ESPRIT to monitor exercise activities, detect body markers, extract image features, and recover three-dimensional (3D) kinematic body poses. The system relies on prior knowledge and modeling of the human body and on advanced statistical inference techniques to achieve robust and accurate motion capture. In Phase I, the company demonstrated motion capture of several exercises, including walking, curling, and dead lifting. Phase II efforts focused on enhancing algorithms and delivering an ESPRIT prototype for testing and demonstration.
The DoD M&S Steering Committee has noted that the current DoD and Service's modeling and simulation resource repository (MSRR) services are not up-to-date limiting their value to the using communities. However, M&S leaders and managers also determined that the Department needs a functional M&S registry card catalog to facilitate M&S tool and data visibility to support M&S activities across the DoD. The M&S Catalog will discover and access M&S metadata maintained at nodes distributed across DoD networks in a centrally managed, decentralized process that employs metadata collection and management. The intent is to link information stores, precluding redundant location updating. The M&S Catalog uses a standard metadata schemas based on the DoD's Net-Centric Data Strategy Community of Interest metadata specification. The Air Force, Navy and OSD (CAPE) have provided initial information to participating DoD nodes, but plans on the horizon are being made to bring in hundreds of source providers.
Knowledge of the gravitational field, in combination with surface topography, provides one of the principal means of inferring the internal structure of a planetary body. The highest resolution gravitational field for Mars published thus far was derived from Doppler tracking data from the Mariner 9 and Viking 1 and 2 spacecraft and is complete to degree and order 18 corresponding to a half wavelength resolution of approximately 600 km. This field, which is characterized by a spatial resolution that is slightly better than that of the highest resolution (16x16) topographic model, has been utilized extensively in analyses of the state of stress and isostatic compensation of the Martian lithosphere. However, the resolution and quality of current gravity and topographic fields are such that the origin and evolution of even the major physiographic features on Mars, such as the hemispheric dichotomy and Tharsis rise, are not well understood. We have re-analyzed the Viking and Mariner data sets and have derived a new gravitational field, which we designated GMM-1 (Goddard Mars Model-1). This model is complete to spherical harmonic degree and order 50 with a corresponding (half wavelength) spatial resolution of 200-300 km where the data permit. In contrast to previous models, GMM-1 was solved to as high degree and order as necessary to nearly exhaust the attenuated gravitational signal contained in the tracking data.
This paper shares the findings of NASA's Integrated Learning and Development Program (ILDP) in its effort to reinvigorate the HANDS-ON practice of space systems engineering and project/program management through focused coursework, training opportunities, on-the job learning and special assignments. Prior to March 2005, NASA responsibility for technical workforce development (the program/project manager, systems engineering, discipline engineering, discipline engineering and associated communities) was executed by two parallel organizations. In March 2005 these organizations merged. The resulting program-ILDP-was chartered to implement an integrated competency-based development model capable of enhancing NASA's technical workforce performance as they face the complex challenges of Earth science, space science, aeronautics and human spaceflight missions. Results developed in collaboration with NASA Field Centers are reported on. This work led to definition of the agency's first integrated technical workforce development model known as the Requisite Occupation Competence and Knowledge (the ROCK). Critical processes and products are presented including: 'validation' techniques to guide model development, the Design-A-CUrriculuM (DACUM) process, and creation of the agency's first systems engineering body-of-knowledge. Findings were validated via nine focus groups from industry and government, validated with over 17 space-related organizations, at an estimated cost exceeding $300,000 (US). Masters-level programs and training programs have evolved to address the needs of these practitioner communities based upon these results. The ROCK reintroduced rigor and depth to the practitioner's development in these critical disciplines enabling their ability to take mission concepts from imagination to reality.
A function space approach to smoothing is used to obtain a set of model error estimates inherent in a reduced-order model. By establishing knowledge of inevitable deficiencies in the truncated model, the error estimates provide a foundation for updating the model and thereby improving system performance. The function space smoothing solution leads to a specification of a method for computation of the model error estimates and development of model error analysis techniques for comparison between actual and estimated errors. The paper summarizes the model error estimation approach as well as an application arising in the area of modeling for spacecraft attitude control.
Some current research in the development and application of distributed, cooperating knowledge-based systems technology is addressed. The focus of the current research is the spacecraft ground operations environment. The underlying hypothesis is that, because of the increasing size, complexity, and cost of planned systems, conventional procedural approaches to the architecture of automated systems will give way to a more comprehensive knowledge-based approach. A hallmark of these future systems will be the integration of multiple knowledge-based agents which understand the operational goals of the system and cooperate with each other and the humans in the loop to attain the goals. The current work includes the development of a reference model for knowledge-base management, the development of a formal model of cooperating knowledge-based agents, the use of testbed for prototyping and evaluating various knowledge-based concepts, and beginning work on the establishment of an object-oriented model of an intelligent end-to-end (spacecraft to user) system. An introductory discussion of these activities is presented, the major concepts and principles being investigated are highlighted, and their potential use in other application domains is indicated.
A virtual vehicle is a digital model of the knowledge surrounding a potentially real vehicle. Knowledge consists not only of the tangible information, such as CAD, but also what is known about the knowledge - its metadata. This paper is an overview of technologies relevant to building a virtual vehicle, and an assessment of how to bring those technologies together.
Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the next generation models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.
A computerized intelligent cockpit aid can increase flight-crew awareness of wind shear, improving avoidance decisions. The FAA Windshear Training Aid (WTA) provides guidelines for assessing the risk of wind shear encounter from meteorological evidence. Use of these guidelines in the cockpit is complicated by uncertainty surrounding meteorological knowledge of wind shear. Bayesian network representation is discussed as a means of modeling this uncertain knowledge in a computer. A probabilistic model of the WTA guidelines using Bayesian network representation is presented. This model combines evidence from sources of varying reliability and incorporates results from meteorological studies of wind shear. The probabilistic model can provide flight crews with meaningful estimates of risk to aid their decisions, using evidence from a variety of sources and a base of meteorological knowledge.
A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation of the dynamical models in a parameterized form reduces the task of common-sense-based decision making to a solution of the following hetero-associated-memory problem: store a set of m predetermined stochastic processes given by their probability distributions in such a way that when presented with an unexpected change in the form of an input out of the set of M inputs, the coupled motormental dynamics converges to the corresponding one of the m pre-assigned stochastic process, and a sample of this process represents the decision.
This paper first describes a hierarchical model for very large area networks (VLAN). Space communication problems whose solution could profit by the model are discussed and then an enhanced version of this model incorporating the knowledge needed for the missile detection-destruction problem is presented. A satellite network or VLAN is a network which includes at least one satellite. Due to the complexity, a compromise between fully centralized and fully distributed network management has been adopted. Network nodes are assigned to a physically localized group, called a partition. Partitions consist of groups of cell nodes with one cell node acting as the organizer or master, called the Group Master (GM). Coordinating the group masters is a Partition Master (PM). Knowledge is also distributed hierarchically existing in at least two nodes. Each satellite node has a back-up earth node. Knowledge must be distributed in such a way so as to minimize information loss when a node fails. Thus the model is hierarchical both physically and informationally.
Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modelling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain-specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850-1900, using an observationally-based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850-1900 and 1995-2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial in the long-term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.
The AMU conducted an objective analysis of the MesoNAM forecasts compared to observed values from sensors at specified KSC/CCAFS wind towers by calculating the following statistics to verify the performance of the model: 1) Bias (mean difference), 2) Standard deviation of Bias, 3) Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and 4) Hypothesis test for Bias = O. The 45 WS LWOs use the MesoNAM to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at KSC and CCAFS had not been measured objectively. The analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point to the observed values from the sensors on wind towers. The data were stratified by tower sensor, month and onshore/offshore wind direction based on the orientation of the coastline to each tower's location. The model's performance statistics were then calculated for each wind tower based on sensor height and model initialization time. The period of record for the data used in this task was based on the operational start of the current MesoNAM in mid-August 2006 and so the task began with the first full month of data, September 2006, through May 2010. The analysis of model performance indicated: a) The accuracy decreased as the forecast valid time from the model initialization increased, b) There was a diurnal signal in T with a cool bias during the late night and a warm bias during the afternoon, c) There was a diurnal signal in Td with a low bias during the afternoon and a high bias during the late night, and d) The model parameters at each vertical level most closely matched the observed parameters at heights closest to those vertical levels. The AMU developed a GUI that consists of a multi-level drop-down menu written in JavaScript embedded within the HTML code. This tool allows the LWO to easily and efficiently navigate among the charts and spreadsheet files containing the model performance statistics. The objective statistics give the LWOs knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses and the GUI allows quick access to the data which will result in improved forecasts for operations.