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The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has been developing new approaches to software and system development to shorten life cycle time and reduce total life-cycle cost, while maintaining product quality. One such approach has been taken by the Just-In-Time (JIT) Materiel Acquisition System Development Project.
An overview of the photovoltaic array reliability problem is presented, and a high reliability/minimum cost approach to this problem is presented. Design areas covered are cell failure, interconnect fatigue, and electrical insulation breakdown, and three solution strategies are discussed. The first involves controlling component failures in the solar cell (cell cracking, cell interconnects) and at the module level (must be statistically treated). Second, a fault tolerant circuit is designed which reduces array degradation, improves module yield losses, and controls hot-spot heating. Third, cost optimum module replacement strategies are also effective in reducing array degradation. This can be achieved by minimizing the life-cycle energy cost of the photovoltaic system. The integration of these solutions is aimed at reducing the 0.01% failure rate.
The value analysis technique used is straightforward. Maximum allowable life-cycle system cost for the cogeneration system is determined as the sum of the present value of fuels displaced plus the present value of revenues from exported power. Each conventional fuel displaced is described by a unit cost in the first year, a uniform annual consumption rate, and a uniform annual escalation rate for unit cost. Exported energy flows are treated the same as displaced energy.
An analysis is presented which integrates the results of specific studies in the areas of photovoltaic structural design optimization, optimization of array series/parallel circuit design, thermal design optimization, and optimization of environmental protection features. The analysis is based on minimizing the total photovoltaic system life-cycle energy cost including repair and replacement of failed cells and modules. This approach is shown to be a useful technique for array optimization, particularly when time-dependent parameters such as array degradation and maintenance are involved.
A description of the CELCAP cogeneration analysis program is presented. A detailed description of the methodology used by the Naval Civil Engineering Laboratory in developing the CELCAP code and the procedures for analyzing cogeneration systems for a given user are given. The four engines modeled in CELCAP are: gas turbine with exhaust heat boiler, diesel engine with waste heat boiler, single automatic-extraction steam turbine, and back-pressure steam turbine. Both the design point and part-load performances are taken into account in the engine models. The load model describes how the hourly electric and steam demand of the user is represented by 24 hourly profiles. The economic model describes how the annual and life-cycle operating costs that include the costs of fuel, purchased electricity, and operation and maintenance of engines and boilers are calculated. The CELCAP code structure and principal functions of the code are described to how the various components of the code are related to each other. Three examples of the application of the CELCAP code are given to illustrate the versatility of the code. The examples shown represent cases of system selection, system modification, and system optimization.
A Second Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Ground Terminal (STGT) is envisioned as the next step in providing expanded support service for data transmission between spaceborne NASA and related missions, including Space Station and the earth-based user community. This need for expanded support service is projected to exist during the early to late 1990's time frame. This concept description reflects the current NASA requirements for a life-cycle cost-effective acquisition of the STGT. The significant features of this STGT configuration include autonomous subsystems, decentralized control processes and modular functional implementation. These features are expected to reduce acquisition risk and provide efficient manpower utilization during the operational years.
In response to NASA's goal of working faster, better and cheaper, JPL has developed extensive plans to minimize cost, maximize customer and employee satisfaction, and implement small- and moderate-size missions. These plans include improved management structures and processes, enhanced technical design processes, the incorporation of new technology, and the development of more economical space- and ground-system designs. The Laboratory's new Flight Projects Implementation Office has been chartered to oversee these innovations and the reengineering of JPL's project design process, including establishment of the Project Design Center and the Flight System Testbed. Reengineering at JPL implies a cultural change whereby the character of its design process will change from sequential to concurrent and from hierarchical to parallel. The Project Design Center will support missions offering high science return, design to cost, demonstrations of new technology, and rapid development. Its computer-supported environment will foster high-fidelity project life-cycle development and cost estimating.
It is well known that propellants produced at the points of destination such as the Moon or Mars will help the economy of space transportation, particularly if round trips with a crew are involved. The construction and operation of a lunar base shortly after the turn of the century is one of the space programs under serious consideration at the present time. Space transportation is one of the major cost drivers. With present technology, if expendable launchers were employed, the specific transportation costs of one-way cargo flights would be approximately 10,000 dollars/kg (1985) at life-cycle cumulative 100,000 ton payload to the lunar surface. A fully reusable space transportation system using lunar oxygen and Earth-produced liquid hydrogen (LH2) would reduce the specific transportation costs by one order of magnitude to less than 1000 dollars/kg at the same payload volume. Another case of primary interest is the delivery of construction material and consumables from the lunar surface to the assembly site of space solar power plants in geostationary orbit (GEO). If such a system were technically and economically feasible, a cumulative payload of about 1 million tons or more would be required. At this level a space freighter system could deliver this material from Earth for about 300 dollars/kg (1985) to GEO. A lunar space transportation system using lunar oxygen and a fuel mixture of 50 percent Al and 50 percent LH2 (that has to come from Earth) could reduce the specific transportation costs to less than half, approximately 150 dollars/kg. If only lunar oxygen were available, these costs would come down to 200 dollars/kg. This analysis indicates a sizable reduction of the transportation burden on this type of mission. It should not be overlooked, however, that there are several uncertainties in such calculations. It is quite difficult at this point to calculate the cost of lunar-produced O and/or Al. This will be a function of production rate and life-cycle length. In quoting any cost of this nature, it is very important to state the cumulative transportation volume, since this is a very sensitive parameter. Nevertheless, cost models must be developed now to understand fully the interdependencies of a large number of parameters and to provide the best possible data for planning purposes. Without such data, mission modes and vehicle designs or sizes cannot be selected intelligently.
The issues of how to avoid future surprise growth in Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO&DA) costs and how to minimize total MO&DA costs for planetary missions are discussed within the context of JPL mission operations support. It is argued that there is no simple, single solution: the entire Project life-cycle must be addressed. It is concluded that cost models that can predict both MO&DA cost as well as Ground System development costs are needed. The first year MO&DA budget plotted against the total of ground and flight systems developments is shown. In order to better recognize changes and control costs in general, a modified funding line item breakdown is recommended to distinguish between development costs (prelaunch and postlaunch) and MO&DA costs.
Our satellite systems are mega-buck items. In today's cost conscious world, we need to reduce the overall costs of satellites if our space program is to survive. One way to accomplish this would be through on-orbit maintenance of parts on the orbiting craft. In order to accomplish maintenance at a low cost I advance the hypothesis of having parts and pieces (spares) waiting. Waiting in the sense of having something when you need it, or just-in-time. The JIT concept can actually be applied to space processes. Its definition has to be changed just enough to encompass the needs of space. Our space engineers tell us which parts and pieces the satellite systems might be needing once in orbit. These items are stored in space for the time of need and can be ready when they are needed -- or Space Based JIT. When a system has a problem, the repair facility is near by and through human or robotics intervention, it can be brought back into service. Through a JIT process, overall system costs could be reduced as standardization of parts is built into satellite systems to facilitate reduced numbers of parts being stored. Launch costs will be contained as fewer spare pieces need to be included in the launch vehicle and the space program will continue to thrive even in this era of reduced budgets. The concept of using an orbiting parts servicer and human or robotics maintenance/repair capabilities would extend satellite life-cycle and reduce system replacement launches. Reductions of this nature throughout the satellite program result in cost savings.
Using electric propulsion to deliver materials to lunar orbit for the development and construction of a lunar base was investigated. Because the mass of the base and its life-cycle resupply mass are large, high specific impulse propulsion systems may significantly reduce the transportation system mass and cost. Three electric propulsion technologies (arcjet, ion, and magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) propulsion) were compared with oxygen/hydrogen propulsion for a lunar base development scenario. Detailed estimates of the orbital transfer vehicles' (OTV's) masses and their propellant masses are presented. The fleet sizes for the chemical and electric propulsion systems are estimated. Ion and MPD propulsion systems enable significant launch mass savings over O2/H2 propulsion. Because of the longer trip time required for the low-thrust OTV's, more of them are required to perform the mission model. By offloading the lunar cargo from the manned O2/H2 OTV missions onto the electric propulsion OTV's, a significant reduction of the low Earth orbit (LEO) launch mass is possible over the 19-year base development period.
Plant elements evaluated included designs for module, panel and array structures, as well as balance-of-plant systems. Installation and maintenance procedures and the impact of site environment were also evaluated. In terms of the cost of energy produced, the horizontal array configuration was found to be less expensive than the tandem array at latitudes less than 40 deg. Both of these configurations are less expensive than the rack design. However, the costs of energy for all three configurations are within approximately ?10 percent of each other. For flat plate panels, the seasonally adjusted and tracking array configurations are not economically attractive when compared to the three other designs. Balance-of-plant costs are approximately equal to (goal) module costs. The array structures and foundations are the most expensive items in the balance-of-plant costs.
The basic questions addressed in this paper are how to avoid future surprise growth in Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO&DA) costs, and how to minimize total MO&DA costs for planetary missions. The context of this paper and its conclusions is in the arena of JPL mission operations support. The fundamental conclusion is that there is no simple, single solution: the entire Project life-cycle must be addressed.
COSTMODL is automated software development-estimation tool. Yields significant reduction in risk of cost overruns and failed projects. Accepts description of software product developed and computes estimates of effort required to produce it, calendar schedule required, and distribution of effort and staffing as function of defined set of development life-cycle phases. Written for IBM PC(R)-compatible computers.
This paper presents the development and results of a generalized shading analysis for a field of point-focus parabolic dish concentrators. Shading of one concentrator by another with attendant loss of energy is a function of the position of the sun and the relative locations of the concentrators within the field. A method is presented for determining the annualized energy loss which includes a trade-off of system life-cycle energy as a function of concentrator spacing and field geometric layout. System energy output is computed on an annualized basis, employing 15 minute-increment environmental data tapes for the year 1976 at Barstow, California. For a land cost of $5000 per acre, lowest system energy cost occurs at about a 25 percent packing fraction (concentrator area/land area) for a typical 1-MWe dish-Stirling solar thermal power plant. Basic equations are given for computing the shading and concomitant energy loss as a function of concentrator center-to-center spacing, field layout site location.
Rapid advances in computer science and information system technology have made possible the creation of synthetic design environments (SDE) which use virtual prototypes to increase the efficiency and agility of the design process. This next generation of computer-based design tools will rely heavily on simulation and advanced visualization techniques to enable integrated product and process teams to concurrently conceptualize, design, and test a product and its fabrication processes. This paper summarizes a successful demonstration of the feasibility of using a simulation based design environment in the shipbuilding industry. As computer science and information science technologies have evolved, there have been many attempts to apply and integrate the new capabilities into systems for the improvement of the process of design. We see the benefits of those efforts in the abundance of highly reliable, technologically complex products and services in the modern marketplace. Furthermore, the computer-based technologies have been so cost effective that the improvements embodied in modern products have been accompanied by lowered costs. Today the state-of-the-art in computerized design has advanced so dramatically that the focus is no longer on merely improving design methodology; rather the goal is to revolutionize the entire process by which complex products are conceived, designed, fabricated, tested, deployed, operated, maintained, refurbished and eventually decommissioned. By concurrently addressing all life-cycle issues, the basic decision making process within an enterprise will be improved dramatically, leading to new levels of quality, innovation, efficiency, and customer responsiveness. By integrating functions and people with an enterprise, such systems will change the fundamental way American industries are organized, creating companies that are more competitive, creative, and productive.
A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for Jet PRopulsion Laboratory (JPL) Deep Space Network (DSN) Data System implementation tasks is described. The resource estimation mdel modifies and combines a number of existing models. The model calibrates the task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit JPL software life-cycle statistics.
This report describes the analysis performed and the findings of a study of the software development cost and schedule estimation models used by the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD), Goddard Space Flight Center. The study analyzes typical FDD projects, focusing primarily on those developed since 1982. The study reconfirms the standard SEL effort estimation model that is based on size adjusted for reuse; however, guidelines for the productivity and growth parameters in the baseline effort model have been updated. The study also produced a schedule prediction model based on empirical data that varies depending on application type. Models for the distribution of effort and schedule by life-cycle phase are also presented. Finally, this report explains how to use these models to plan SEL projects.