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NASA NTRS2002

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM rainfall products from December 1997 to November 2001

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2001. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DE 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs. west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in strtaiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

ENSO Variations in Tropical Precipitation

TRMM was launched during the height of the 1997-98 El Nino and offered new insights into the evolution of precipitation during this event. The rapid decline of the El Nino in May 1998 was followed by a long lasting La Nina. Extreme wet and dry regions in the tropics during this El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle will be compared with the previous 23 years using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) products. In particular, patterns of precipitation anomalies preceding El Nino will be examined. It has been shown that 30-60 day oscillations in convection appear in the western Pacific before the onset of El Nino. Also, a fast traveling equatorial wave of rainfall circled the globe during the demise of 1997-98 El Nino. Recent work has revealed an interesting relationship between a gradient of anomalous precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean and the initiation of El Nino. This link will be explored as well as other anomaly patterns in 2002, which may signal an upcoming El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2003

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and detail their impact on estimates of how ENSO events perturb the tropical rainfall. We will place these results in perspective by considering requirements for precipitation accuracy for global climate variability and change studies involving ENSO, monsoon dynamics and variations, and climate model improvement and validation. The discussion will conclude with an assessment of the implications of these findings for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) requirements.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics Using TRMM Rainfall Products from December 1997 to November 2002

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in straitform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMXX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM- LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM Rainfall Products from December 1997 to November 2002

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America ) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model. Review of other latent heating algorithms will be discussed in the workshop.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Transport Pathways for Asian Pollution Outflow Over the Pacific: Interannual and Seasonal Variations

The meteorological pathways contributing to Asian pollution outflow over the Pacific are examined with a global three-dimensional model analysis of CO observations from the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission (February-April 2001). The model is used also to place the TRACE-P observations in an interannual (1994-2001) and seasonal context. The major process driving Asian pollution outflow in spring is frontal lifting ahead of southeastward-moving cold fronts (the leading edge of cold surges) and transport in the boundary layer behind the cold fronts. Orographic lifting over central and eastern China combines with the cold fronts to promote the transport of Chinese pollution to the free troposphere. Outflow of seasonal biomass burning in Southeast Asia during spring takes place mostly by deep convection but also by northeastward transport and frontal lifting, mixing with the anthropogenic outflow. Boundary layer outflow over the western Pacific is largely devoid of biomass burning influence. European and African (biomass burning) plumes in Asian outflow during TRACE-P were weak (less than 60 ppbv and 20 ppbv CO, respectively) and were not detectable in the observations because of superposition of the much larger Asian pollution signal. Spring 2001 (La Nina) was characterized by unusually frequent cold surge events in the Asian Pacific rim and strong convection in Southeast Asia, leading to unusually strong boundary layer outflow of anthropogenic emissions and convective outflow of biomass burning emissions in the upper troposphere. The Asian outflow flux of CO to the Pacific is found to vary seasonally by a factor of 3-4 (maximum in March and minimum in summer). The March maximum results from frequent cold surge events and seasonal biomass burning emissions.

Liu, Hong-Yu↗
NASA NTRS2003

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Our analysis of discrepancies between the PR rainfall and attenuation suggests that uncertainty in the assumed drop size distribution and associated attenuation/reflectivity/rainfall relationships inherent in single-frequency radar methods is a serious issue for studies of interannual variability.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Relationship between Precipitating Convection and Easterly Wave Dynamics in the Western Central Pacific

The main proposed goal of this research was a synthesis of radiosonde and radar time series from the TRMM validation experiment KWAJEX (Jul. 23 - Sep. 14 1999) with satellite datasets and forecast model based analyses, in order to characterize synoptic-scale disturbances passing through the Kwajalein (9 deg N 168 deg W) region on the north edge of the central Pacific ITCZ. The Sobel et al. paper summarizes our methodology and findings. A classic paper of Reed and Recker had documented the steady pulse of easterly waves modulating meridional wind, clouds and precipitation in and west of this region in a set of observations in boreal fall. Our study found easterly waves were much less organized and intense during KWAJEX, and only weakly correlated with daily area-averaged radar-derived precipitation and IR brightness temperature. Instead, we focused on three disturbances associated with the highest daily-averaged rainfall amounts during the period. We found by looking at NCEP reanalyses that only one was an easterly wave, while the other two corresponded to an equatorial Kelvin wave and a mixed Rossby-gravity wave, respectively. The contrast with Reed and Recker may be sampling variability, but the timing of KWAJEX, earlier in the year, and during suppressed (weak La Nina) conditions may also contribute to our different conclusions.

Bretherton, Christopher S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variability of Tropical Ocean Evaporation: A Comparison of Microwave Satellite and Assimilation Results

Remote sensing methodologies for turbulent heat fluxes over oceans depend on driving bulk formulations of fluxes with measured surface winds and estimated near surface thermodynamics from microwave sensors of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) heritage. We will review recent work with a number of SSM/I-based algorithms and investigate the ability of current data sets to document global, tropical ocean-averaged evaporation changes in association with El Nino and La Nina SST changes. We show that in addition to interannual signals, latent heat flux increases over the period since late 1987 range from approx. .1 to .6 mm/ day are present; these represent trends 2 to 3 times larger than the NCEP Reanalysis. Since atmospheric storage cannot account for the difference, and since compensating evapotranspiration changes over land are highly unlikely to be this large, these evaporation estimates cannot be reconciled with ocean precipitation records such as those produced by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP. The reasons for the disagreement include less than adequate intercalibration between SSM/I sensors providing winds and water vapor for driving the algorithms, biases due to the assumption that column integrated water vapor mirrors near surface water vapor variations, and other factors as well. The reanalyses have their own problems with spin-up during assimilation, lack of constraining input data at the ocean surface, and amplitude of synoptic transients.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variability of Tropical Rainfall as Seen From TRMM

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Version 5 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and examine changes in new TRMM Version 6 retrievals. To place these results in a tropical water balance perspective we also examine interannual variations in evaporation over the tropical oceans made from TRMM and SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) measurements of surface winds and humidity. Evaporation estimates from reanalysis and several global model experiments will also be compared to the TRMM findings and evaluated for consistency. The ability to detect regional shifts in freshwater flux over the oceans (equivalently, integrated moisture convergence) and moisture transport will be discussed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Status and Plans for the WCRP/GEWEX Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

Status and plans for GPCP are presented along with scientific findings from the current data set. Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 26-year (1979-2004) monthly dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). One emphasis is to discriminate among the variations due to ENSO, volcanic events and possible long-term changes. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, the data set does indicate an upward trend (0.13 mm/day/25yr) and a downward trend (-0.06 mm/day/25yr) over tropical oceans and lands (25S-25N), respectively. This corresponds to a 4% increase (ocean) and 2% decrease (land) during this time period. Simple techniques are derived to attempt to eliminate variations due to ENSO and major volcanic eruptions in the Tropics. Using only annual values two "volcano years" are determined by examining ocean-land coupled variations in precipitation related to ENSO and other phenomena. The outlier years coincide with Pinatubo and El Chicon eruptions. The ENSO signal is reduced by deriving mean ocean and land values for El Nino, La Nina and neutral conditions based on Nino 3.4 SST and normalizing the annual ocean and land precipitation to the neutral set of cases. The impact of the two major volcanic eruptions over the past 25 years is estimated to be about a 5% reduction in tropical rainfall. The modified data set (with ENSO and volcano effect at least partially removed) retains the same approximate linear change slopes over the data set period, but with reduced variance leading to significance tests with results in the 90-95% range. Intercomparisons between the GPCP, SSM/I (1988-2004), and TRMM (1998-2004) satellite rainfall products and alternate gauge analyses over land are made to attempt to increase or decrease confidence in the changes seen in the GPCP analysis.

Adkerm Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA Satellite and field campaign cloud related data sets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. Also we have implemented a Land Information System (LIS that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models into the MMF. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) This modeling system has been applied and tested its performance for two different climate scenarios, El Nino (1998) and La Nina (1999). The coupled new modeling system produced more realistic propagation and intensity of tropical rainfall systems and intraseasonal oscillations, and diurnal variation of precipitation that are very difficult to forecast using even the state-of-the-art GCMs. In this talk I will present: (1) a brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (both Microphysical and land processes) and (2) The Goddard MMF and the Major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF) and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS1993

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Future Soybean Prices

Recently, it was shown that the application of a method combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the maximum entropy method to univariate indicators of the coupled ocean-atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be helpful in determining whether an El Nino (EN) or La Nina (LN) event will occur. SSA - a variant of principal component analysis applied in the time domain - filters out variability unrelated to ENSO and separates the quasi-biennial (QB), two-to-three year variability, from a lower-frequency (LF) four-to-six year EN-LN cycle; the total variance associated with ENSO combines the QB and LF modes. ENSO has been known to affect weather conditions over much of the globe. For example, EN events have been connected with unusually rainy weather over the Central and Western US, while the opposite phases of the oscillation (LN) have been plausibly associated with extreme dry conditions over much of the same geographical area...

Keppenne, C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

ECMWF and SSMI Global Surface Wind Speeds

Monthly mean, 2.5 deg - x 2.5 deg-resolution, 10-m height wind speeds from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) instrument and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast-analysis system are compared between 60 deg S and 60 deg N during 1988-1991. The SSMI data were uniformly processed while numerous changes were made to the ECMWF forecast-analysis system. The SSMI measurements, which were compared with moored-buoy wind observations, were considered to be a reference data set to evaluate the influence of the changes made to the ECMWF system upon the ECMWF surface wind speed over the ocean. A demonstrable yearly decrease of the difference between SSMI and ECMWF wind speeds occurred in the 10 deg S - 10 deg N region, including the 5 deg S - 5 deg N zone of the Pacific Ocean, where nearly all of the variations occurred in the 160 deg E - 160 deg W region. The apparent improvement of the ECMWF wind speed occurred at the same time as the yearly decrease of the equatorial Pacific SSMI wind speed, which was associated with the natural transition from La Nina to El Nino conditions. In the 10 deg S - 10 deg N tropical Atlantic, the ECMWF wind speed had a 4-year trend, which was not expected nor was it duplicated with the SSMI data. No yearly trend was found in the difference between SSMI and ECMWF surface wind speeds in middle latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres. The magnitude of the differences between SSMI and ECMWF was 0.4 m s^(-1) or 100 percent larger in the northern than in the southern hemisphere extratropics. In two areas (Arabian Sea and North Atlantic Ocean) where ECMWF and SSMI wind speeds were compared to ship measurements, the ship data had much better agreement with the ECMWF analyses compared to SSMI data. In the 10 deg S - 10 deg N area the difference between monthly standard deviations of the daily wind speeds dropped significantly from 1988 to 1989, but remained constant at about 30 percent for the remaining years. y.

Halpern, David↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Overview of Climatic Elements

This Technical Publication (TP) addresses some climatic elements with emphasis on atmospheric composition, including gas radiative characteristics. Solar radiation is discussed with considerable information on the mathematical and statistical formulae. On a worldwide basis, temperature and precipitation for the globe are discussed along with interaction in drought. Also included is the simultaneous interaction with winds, humidity, and solar radiation. Volcanology gets minimum treatment. The oceans and seas are treated in chart form along with the interrelationship of oceanic currents and El Nino and La Nina, and ENSO phenomena. Upper air circulations are discussed. Various cloud formations up to 85-95 km altitude are described. Information on tornadoes and hurricanes is also included. One section is devoted to the climate physical-chemical elements. A short discussion is given on the importance for the quality of data and/or information in descriptions of the climate. This TP presents only an overview or survey of these and other various climatic elements.

Crutcher, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships Between Anomalies of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, percent cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Near real time products, stating with September 2002, have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. Results in this paper included products through April 2008. The time period studied is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, are shown below, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. The ability to match this data represents a good test of a model's response to El Nino.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2009

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

Susskind, Joel↗