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Results for “Likelihood Function”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

A Monte Carlo comparison of the recovery of winds near upwind and downwind from the SASS-1 model function by means of the sum of squares algorithm and a maximum likelihood estimator

Backscatter measurements at upwind and crosswind are simulated for five incidence angles by means of the SASS-1 model function. The effects of communication noise and attitude errors are simulated by Monte Carlo methods, and the winds are recovered by both the Sum of Square (SOS) algorithm and a Maximum Likelihood Estimater (MLE). The SOS algorithm is shown to fail for light enough winds at all incidence angles and to fail to show areas of calm because backscatter estimates that were negative or that produced incorrect values of K sub p greater than one were discarded. The MLE performs well for all input backscatter estimates and returns calm when both are negative. The use of the SOS algorithm is shown to have introduced errors in the SASS-1 model function that, in part, cancel out the errors that result from using it, but that also cause disagreement with other data sources such as the AAFE circle flight data at light winds. Implications for future scatterometer systems are given.

Pierson, W. J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Interactive MATLAB Program for Fitting Transfer Functions to Frequency Responses

A computer program called FRFit (Frequency Response Fitting) is described for fitting single-input single-output transfer function models to empirical frequency response data. The program is interactive in that the user specifies ``elementary factors'' (gain, delay, pure differentiators and integrators, and first- and second-order zeros and poles) by entering numerical values or moving sliders in a graphical user interface. A nonlinear optimization can then be performed to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of transfer function parameters and uncertainties to provide feedback on the modeling and refine estimates. Several examples are discussed, including the identification of aircraft pitch dynamics from simulation data and data reported in the literature, approximating Theodorsen's function of unsteady aerodynamics, and obtaining a reduced-order model of a computational fluid dynamics code describing the unsteady aerodynamics around an aeroelastic wing. The program has some usefulness as a teaching aid, and can be applied to model structure determination, reduced-order modeling, preliminary analysis, and simple system identification problems. The program was written in MATLAB and is planned for public release through the NASA Software Catalog.

System identification↗
NASA NTRS1993

Luminosity functions for very low mass stars and brown dwarfs

A theoretical investigation of the luminosity function for low-mass objects to constrain the stellar initial mass function at the low-mass end is reported. The ways in which luminosity functions for low-mass stars are affected by star formation histories, brown dwarf and premain-sequence cooling rates and main-sequence mass luminosity relations, and the IMF are examined. Cooling rates and the mass-luminosity relation are determined through a new series of evolutionary calculations for very low mass stars and brown dwarfs in the range 0.05-0.50 solar mass. Model luminosity functions are constructed for specific comparison with the results of four recent observational surveys. The likelihood that the stellar mass function in the solar neighborhood is increasing at masses near the bottom of the main sequence and perhaps at lower masses is confirmed. In the most optimistic case, brown dwarfs contribute half of the local missing disk mass. The actual contribution is likely to be considerably less.

Laughlin, Gregory↗
NASA NTRS1980

The sensitivity of a very long baseline interferometer

The theoretical sensitivity of various methods of acquiring and processing interferometer data are compared. It is shown that for a fixed digital recording capacity one bit quantization of single sideband data filtered with a rectangular bandpass and sampled at the Nyquist rate yields the optimum signal to noise ratio. The losses which result from imperfect bandpass, poor image rejection, approximate methods of fringe rotation, fractional bit correction, and loss of quadrature are discussed. Also discussed is the use of the complex delay function as a maximum likelihood fringe estimator.

Rogers, A. E. E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evidence-Based Approach to the Analysis of Serious Decompression Sickness with Application to EVA Astronauts

It is important to understand the risk of serious hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS) in order to develop procedures and treatment responses to mitigate the risk. Since it is not ethical to conduct prospective tests about serious DCS with humans, the necessary information was gathered from 73 published reports. We hypothesize that a 4-hr 100% oxygen (O2) prebreathe results in a very low risk of serious DCS, and test this through analysis. We evaluated 258 tests containing information from 79,366 exposures in attitude chambers. Serious DCS was documented in 918 men during the tests. Serious DCS are signs and symptoms broadly classified as Type II DCS. A risk function analysis with maximum likelihood optimization was performed to identify significant explanatory variables, and to create a predictive model for the probability of serious DCS [P(serious DCS)]. Useful variables were Tissue Ratio, the planned time spent at altitude (T(sub alt)), and whether or not repetitive exercise was performed at altitude. Tissue Ratio is P1N2/P2, where P1N2 is calculated nitrogen (N2) pressure in a compartment with a 180-min half-time for N2 pressure just before ascent, and P2 is ambient pressure after ascent. A prebreathe and decompression profile Shuttle astronauts use for extravehicular activity (EVA) includes a 4-hr prebreathe with 100% O2, an ascent to P2 = 4.3 lb per sq. in. absolute, and a T(sub alt) = 6 hr. The P(serious DCS) is: 0.0014 (0.00096 - 0.00196, 95% confidence interval) with exercise and 0.00025 (0.00016 - 0.00035) without exercise. Given 100 Shuttle EVAs to date and no report of serious DCS, the true risk is less than 0.03 with 95% confidence (Binomial Theorem). It is problematic to estimate the risk of serious DCS since it appears infrequently, even if the estimate is based on thousands of altitude chamber exposures. The true risk to astronauts may lie between the extremes of the confidence intervals (0.00016 - 0.00196) since the contribution of other factors, particularly exercise, to the risk of serious DCS during EVA is unknown. A simple model that only accounts for four important variables in retrospective data is still helpful to increase our understanding about the risk of serious DCS.

Conkin, Johnny↗
NASA NTRS2013

Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

signal detection↗
NASA NTRS2016

Airport Traffic Conflict Detection and Resolution Algorithm Evaluation

Two conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) algorithms for the terminal maneuvering area (TMA) were evaluated in a fast-time batch simulation study at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center. One CD&R algorithm, developed at NASA, was designed to enhance surface situation awareness and provide cockpit alerts of potential conflicts during runway, taxi, and low altitude air-to-air operations. The second algorithm, Enhanced Traffic Situation Awareness on the Airport Surface with Indications and Alerts (SURF IA), was designed to increase flight crew awareness of the runway environment and facilitate an appropriate and timely response to potential conflict situations. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the performance of the aircraft-based CD&R algorithms during various runway, taxiway, and low altitude scenarios, multiple levels of CD&R system equipage, and various levels of horizontal position accuracy. Algorithm performance was assessed through various metrics including the collision rate, nuisance and missed alert rate, and alert toggling rate. The data suggests that, in general, alert toggling, nuisance and missed alerts, and unnecessary maneuvering occurred more frequently as the position accuracy was reduced. Collision avoidance was more effective when all of the aircraft were equipped with CD&R and maneuvered to avoid a collision after an alert was issued. In order to reduce the number of unwanted (nuisance) alerts when taxiing across a runway, a buffer is needed between the hold line and the alerting zone so alerts are not generated when an aircraft is behind the hold line. All of the results support RTCA horizontal position accuracy requirements for performing a CD&R function to reduce the likelihood and severity of runway incursions and collisions.

Jones, Denise R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of likelihood misspecification in Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

In recent years, several groups have designed Autonomous Experiment (AE) models with the aim of using them as an alternative method for neutron scattering scanning. In an AE, Gaussian processes (GPs) are most frequently used due to their interpretability, their non-parametric nature, their universal approximation, and their closed-form predictive distribution. GPs have two key components, namely, the model for the likelihood of a neutron count knowing the underlying dynamic structure factor and the acquisition function. In this paper, we investigate the impact, on the quality of an AE, of the likelihood and acquisition function choices, in energy scans and (Q, ω) ones, with respect to the signal-over-noise ratio. While we hypothesized that the quality of GP predictions would decrease when the normal to Poisson likelihood approximation breaks down at low count rates, we found that the use of the correct Poisson likelihood does not improve the quality of the data collected, as well as yields very poor results in (Q, ω) scans at low count rates. In fact, the best results are obtained with a combination of normal likelihood, including the observation noise, and the change in variance acquisition function. In addition, we find that the performance, or quality of the predictive distribution, is a misleading measure of efficiency, that is, of the quality of the data collected.

Perryman, David Elliott [Inst. Laue-Langevin (ILL)↗
NASA NTRS2011

Unsupervised Detection of Planetary Craters by a Marked Point Process

With the launch of several planetary missions in the last decade, a large amount of planetary images is being acquired. Preferably, automatic and robust processing techniques need to be used for data analysis because of the huge amount of the acquired data. Here, the aim is to achieve a robust and general methodology for crater detection. A novel technique based on a marked point process is proposed. First, the contours in the image are extracted. The object boundaries are modeled as a configuration of an unknown number of random ellipses, i.e., the contour image is considered as a realization of a marked point process. Then, an energy function is defined, containing both an a priori energy and a likelihood term. The global minimum of this function is estimated by using reversible jump Monte-Carlo Markov chain dynamics and a simulated annealing scheme. The main idea behind marked point processes is to model objects within a stochastic framework: Marked point processes represent a very promising current approach in the stochastic image modeling and provide a powerful and methodologically rigorous framework to efficiently map and detect objects and structures in an image with an excellent robustness to noise. The proposed method for crater detection has several feasible applications. One such application area is image registration by matching the extracted features.

Troglio, G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Interactive MATLAB Program for Fitting Transfer Functions to Frequency Responses

A computer program called FRFit (Frequency Response Fitting) for matching single-input single-output (SISO) transfer function models to empirical frequency response data is described. The program was written in MATLAB and has a graphical user interface (GUI). It is interactive in that the user manually builds the transfer function model using ``elementary factors'' (gain, delay, differentiators and integrators, and first- and second-order poles and zeros) and adjusts their values with sliders or entry fields. A nonlinear optimization can also be used to determine maximum-likelihood estimates of the transfer function parameters and their associated uncertainties. The program has some usefulness as a teaching aid, and can be applied to model structure determination, reduced-order modeling, preliminary analysis, and other system identification problems. FRFit is demonstrated using example problems, including the identification of aircraft transfer functions and rational function approximations of Theodorsen's function.

Frequency response↗
NASA NTRS1998

Low level CO2 effects on pulmonary function in humans

The purpose of the study was to determine whether chamber exposure to low levels of CO2 results in functional alterations in gas mixing and closing volume in humans. Four healthy volunteer subjects were exposed to 0.7% CO2 and to 1.2% CO2. Spirometry, lung volumes, single breath nitrogen washout, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) by two methods, and cardiac output were measured in triplicate. Values were obtained over two non-consecutive days during the training period (control) and on days 2 or 3, 4, 6, 10, 13, and 23 of exposure to each CO2 level. Measurements were made during the same time of day. There was one day of testing after exposure, while still in the chamber but off carbon dioxide. The order of testing, up until measurements of DLCO and cardiac output, were randomized to avoid presentation effects. The consistent findings were a reduction in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide and a fall in cardiac output, occurring to a similar degree with both exposures. For the group as a whole, there was no indication of major effects on spirometry, lung volumes, gas mixing or dead space. We conclude that small changes may occur in the function of distal gas exchanging units; however, these effects were not associated with any adverse health effects. The likelihood of pathophysiologic changes in lung function or structure with 0.7 or 1.2% CO2 exposure for this period of time, is therefore, low.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sampling Functions from Gaussian Processes and Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks

When learning aerodynamic models from data, it is critical to incorporate estimates of model uncertainty. This motivates the design of probabilistic aerodynamic databases which can be sampled to generate physically and statistically plausible aerodynamic models. In this talk we discuss how to sample deterministic functions from two different kinds of probabilistic models and demonstrate their use. First, Gaussian Process Regressors (GPRs) are a widely used probabilistic kernel-based model which can be thought of as Gaussian distributions over functions. GPRs are generally trained by maximizing the marginal likelihood of seeing the training data over the kernel parameter space. Sample functions are easily generated by drawing points from the Gaussian distribution at desired input points. However, when the points are not known ahead of time, the classical sampling approach is not possible since successive function samples will generate different function realizations. We present an approach for sampling consistent function evaluations from a GPR over multiple samples. Second, we describe a neural network architecture which learns a conditional Gaussian distribution by maximizing the marginal likelihood at each point in the input space. We then discuss and compare several options for generating sample functions which match this distribution. Finally, we demonstrate the use of these probabilistic aerodynamic models in an atmospheric reentry simulation.

Gaussian process regression↗
DOE OSTI2024

Joint inference of multiplicative and additive systematics in galaxy density fluctuations and clustering measurements

Galaxy clustering measurements are a key probe of the matter density field in the Universe. With the era of precision cosmology upon us, surveys rely on precise measurements of the clustering signal for meaningful cosmological analysis. However, the presence of systematic contaminants can bias the observed galaxy number density, and thereby bias the galaxy two-point statistics. As the statistical uncertainties get smaller, correcting for these systematic contaminants becomes increasingly important for unbiased cosmological analysis. We present and validate a new method for understanding and mitigating both additive and multiplicative systematics in galaxy clustering measurements (two-point function) by joint inference of contaminants in the galaxy overdensity field (one-point function) using a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE). We test this methodology with Kilo-Degree Survey-like mock galaxy catalogues and synthetic systematic template maps. We estimate the cosmological impact of such mitigation by quantifying uncertainties and possible biases in the inferred relationship between the observed and the true galaxy clustering signal. Our method robustly corrects the clustering signal to the sub-percent level and reduces numerous additive and multiplicative systematics from 1.5σ to less than 0.1σ for the scenarios we tested. In addition, we provide an empirical approach to identifying the functional form (additive, multiplicative, or other) by which specific systematics contaminate the galaxy number density. Even though this approach is tested and geared towards systematics contaminating the galaxy number density, the methods can be extended to systematics mitigation for other two-point correlation measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1968

Concept for simplified serial digital decoder

Modular decoder, which lends itself best to special purpose digital equipment using sequential access memories, decodes the first order Reed-Muller codes. It functions as a maximum-likelihood exhaustive-search decoder and is a modular implementation to accommodate codes of any length.

Green, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Nonparametric probability density estimation by optimization theoretic techniques

Two nonparametric probability density estimators are considered. The first is the kernel estimator. The problem of choosing the kernel scaling factor based solely on a random sample is addressed. An interactive mode is discussed and an algorithm proposed to choose the scaling factor automatically. The second nonparametric probability estimate uses penalty function techniques with the maximum likelihood criterion. A discrete maximum penalized likelihood estimator is proposed and is shown to be consistent in the mean square error. A numerical implementation technique for the discrete solution is discussed and examples displayed. An extensive simulation study compares the integrated mean square error of the discrete and kernel estimators. The robustness of the discrete estimator is demonstrated graphically.

Scott, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A complete X-ray sample of the high latitude sky from HEAO-1 A-2: log N lo S and luminosity functions

An experiment was performed in which a complete X-ray survey of the 8.2 steradians of the sky at galactic latitudes where the absolute value of b is 20 deg down to a limiting sensitivity of 3.1 x ten to the minus 11th power ergs/sq cm sec in the 2-10 keV band. Of the 85 detected sources 17 were identified with galactic objects, 61 were identified with extragalactic objects, and 7 remain unidentified. The log N - log S relation for the non-galactic objects is well fit by the Euclidean relationship. The X-ray spectra of these objects were used to construct log N - log S in physical units. The complete sample of identified sources was used to construct X-ray luminosity functions, using the absolute maximum likelihood method, for clusters galaxies and active galactic nuclei.

Piccinotti, G.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Einstein X-ray survey of the Pleiades - The dependence of X-ray emission on stellar age

The data obtained with two pointed observations of 1 deg by 1 deg fields of the Pleiades region have been analyzed, and the results are presented. The maximum-likelihood X-ray luminosity functions for the Pleiades G and K stars in the cluster are derived, and it is shown that, for the G stars, the Pleiades X-ray luminosity function is significantly brighter than the corresponding function for Hyades G dwarf stars. This finding indicates a dependence of X-ray luminosity on stellar age, which is confirmed by comparison of the same data with median X-ray luminosities of pre-main sequence and local disk population dwarf G stars. It is suggested that the significantly larger number of bright X-ray sources associated with G stars than with K stars, the lack of detection of M stars, and the relatively rapid rotation of the Pleiades K stars can be explained in terms of the onset of internal differential rotation near the convective envelope-radidative core interface after the spin-up phase during evolution to the main sequence.

Micela, G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

X-ray emission at low-mass end of the MS - Results from an extensive Einstein Observatory survey

The 0.16-4.0 keV X-ray emission from K and M stars of luminosity classes IV, V, and VI within 25 parsec of the sun was measured using all available Einstein Observatory IPC data and a critical compilation of catalogued optical data. Fifty four of 88 stars were detected, 70 of 138 M stars with Mv less than 13.4 (corresponding to M6) and 15 or 31 fainter M stars. The surveyed stars were grouped, on the basis of U, V, W space velocity components, into old-disk, young-disk, and halo population stars. Then, a subsample was selected which is statistically representative of the population of K and M stars in the solar neighborhood, on the basis of which unbiased Maximum Likelihood X-ray luminosity functions were constructed for K, early M, and late M stars. The investigation revealed a decrease of X-ray luminosity with increasing stellar age in the range of ages of disk population stars.

Barbera, M.↗