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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The RAM-SCB model and its applications to advance space weather forecasting

Energetic particle fluxes that are part of the Earth’s ring current and radiation belts can intensify significantly during space weather events like geomagnetic storms and could cause severe damage to satellite-based technologies. Understanding the physical processes that control their dynamics and improving our capability for their prediction is thus extremely important. In the context of space weather applications and user needs, this paper provides a brief description of our kinetic ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB) and its further extension to implement a self-consistent electric (E) field. Specific examples that demonstrate RAM-SCB capabilities and limitations to reproduce the near-Earth space weather environment are given. In this paper, the current status of RAM-SCB is assessed and plans for its further improvement are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dependence of EMIC wave parameters during quiet, geomagnetic storm, and geomagnetic storm phase times

As electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves may play an important role in radiation belt dynamics, there has been a push to better include them into global simulations. How to best include EMIC wave effects is still an open question. Recently many studies have attempted to parameterize EMIC waves and their characteristics by geomagnetic indices. However, this does not fully take into account important physics related to the phase of a geomagnetic storm. In this paper we first consider how EMIC wave occurrence varies with the phase of a geomagnetic storm and the SYM-H, AE, and Kp indices. Here we show that the storm phase plays an important role in the occurrence probability of EMIC waves. The occurrence rates for a given value of a geomagnetic index change based on the geomagnetic condition. Then in this study we also describe the typical plasma and wave parameters observed in L and magnetic local time for quiet, storm, and storm phase. These results are given in a tabular format in the supporting information so that more accurate statistics of EMIC wave parameters can be incorporated into modeling efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Role of EMIC Wave Scattering During the 27 February 2014 Storm by RAM–SCB Simulations

Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co–located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics–based RAM–SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data–driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. Notably, the results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He–band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP): A New NASA Mission

The Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) is a revolutionary mission that simultaneously investigates two of the most important overarching issues in Heliophysics today: the acceleration of energetic particles and interaction of the solar wind with the local interstellar medium. While seemingly disparate, these are intimately coupled because particles accelerated in the inner heliosphere play critical roles in the outer heliospheric interaction. Selected by NASA in 2018, IMAP is planned to launch in 2024. The IMAP spacecraft is a simple sun-pointed spinner in orbit about the Sun-Earth L1 point. IMAP’s ten instruments provide a complete and synergistic set of observations to simultaneously dissect the particle injection and acceleration processes at 1 AU while remotely probing the global heliospheric interaction and its response to particle populations generated by these processes. In situ at 1 AU, IMAP provides detailed observations of solar wind electrons and ions; suprathermal, pickup, and energetic ions; and the interplanetary magnetic field. For the outer heliosphere interaction, IMAP provides advanced global observations of the remote plasma and energetic ions over a broad energy range via energetic neutral atom imaging, and precise observations of interstellar neutral atoms penetrating the heliosphere. Complementary observations of interstellar dust and the ultraviolet glow of interstellar neutrals further deepen the physical understanding from IMAP. IMAP also continuously broadcasts vital real-time space weather observations. Finally, IMAP engages the broader Heliophysics community through a variety of innovative opportunities. This paper summarizes the IMAP mission at the start of Phase A development.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Bounce- and MLT-averaged diffusion coefficients in a physics-based magnetic field geometry obtained from RAM-SCB for the March 17 2013 storm

Local acceleration via whistler wave and particle interaction plays a significant role in particle dynamics in the radiation belt. In this work we explore gyro-resonant wave-particle interaction and quasi-linear diffusion in different magnetic field configurations related to the March 17 2013 storm. We consider the Earth's magnetic dipole field as a reference and compare the results against non-dipole field configurations corresponding to quiet and stormy conditions. The latter are obtained with the ring current-atmosphere interactions model with a self-consistent magnetic field RAM-SCB, a code that models the Earth's ring current and provides a realistic modeling of the Earth's magnetic field. By applying quasi-linear theory, the bounce- and MLT-averaged electron pitch angle, mixed term, and energy diffusion coefficients are calculated for each magnetic field configuration. For radiation belt (~1 MeV) and ring current (~100 keV) electrons, it is shown that at some MLTs the bounce-averaged diffusion coefficients become rather insensitive to the details of the magnetic field configuration, while at other MLTs storm conditions can expand the range of equatorial pitch angles where gyro-resonant diffusion occurs and significantly enhance the diffusion rates. When MLT average is performed at drift shell L = 4.25 (a good approximation to drift average), the diffusion coefficients become quite independent of the magnetic field configuration for relativistic electrons, while the opposite is true for lower energy electrons. These results suggest that, at least for the March 17 2013 storm and for L ≲ 4.25, the commonly adopted dipole approximation of the Earth's magnetic field can be safely used for radiation belt electrons, while a realistic modeling of the magnetic field configuration is necessary to describe adequately the diffusion rates of ring current electrons.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Model evaluation guidelines for geomagnetic index predictions

Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near–Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best–known indices are calculated from ground–based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM–H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) that are applied to a time–series comparison of model output and observations; and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection (POD) that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. Furthermore, a few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Effect of spatial density variation and O+ concentration on the growth and evolution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves

We simulate electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave growth and evolution within three regions, the plasmasphere (or plasmaspheric plume), the plasmapause, and the low-density plasmatrough outside the plasmapause. First, we use a ring current simulation with a plasmasphere model to model the particle populations that give rise to the instability for conditions observed on 9 June 2001. Then, using two different models for the cold ion composition, we do a full scale hybrid code simulation in dipole coordinates of the EMIC waves on a meridional plane at MLT = 18 and at 1900 UT within a range of L shell from L = 4.9 to 6.7. EMIC waves were observed during June 9, 2001 by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) spacecraft. While an exact comparison between observed and simulated spectra is not possible here, we do find significant similarities between the two, at least at one location within the region of largest wave growth. We find that the plasmapause is not a preferred region for EMIC wave growth, though waves can grow in that region. The density gradient within the plasmapause does, however, affect the orientation of wave fronts and wave vector both within the plasmapause and in adjacent regions. There is a preference for EMIC waves to be driven in the He+ band (frequencies between the O+ and He+ gyrofrequencies) within the plasmasphere, although they can also grow in the plasmatrough. If present, H+ band waves are more likely to grow in the plasmatrough. This fact, plus L dependence of the frequency and possible time evolution toward lower frequency waves, can be explained by a simple model. Large O+ concentration limits the frequency range of or even totally quenches EMIC waves. This is more likely to occur in the plasmatrough at solar maximum. Such large O+ concentration significantly affects the H+ cutoff frequency and hence the width in frequency of the stop band above the He+ gyrofrequency. EMIC wave surfaces predicted by cold plasma theory are altered by the finite temperature of the ring current H+.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The global context of the 14 November 2012 storm event

From 2 to 5 UT on 14 November 2012, the Van Allen Probes observed repeated particle flux dropouts during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm as the satellites traversed the post-midnight to dawnside inner magnetosphere. Each flux dropout corresponded to an abrupt change in the magnetic topology, i.e., from a more dipolar configuration to a configuration with magnetic field lines stretched in the dawn-dusk direction. Geosynchronous GOES spacecraft located in the dusk and near-midnight sectors and the LANL constellation with wide local time coverage also observed repeated flux dropouts and stretched field lines with similar occurrence patterns to those of the Van Allen Probe events. THEMIS recorded multiple transient abrupt expansions of the evening-side magnetopause ~20–30 min prior to the sequential Van Allen Probes observations. Ground-based magnetograms and all sky images demonstrate repeatable features in conjunction with the dropouts. We combine the various in-situ and ground-based measurements to define and understand the global spatiotemporal features associated with the dropouts observed by the Van Allen Probes. We discuss various proposed hypotheses for the mechanism that plausibly caused this storm-time dropout event as well as formulate a new hypothesis that explains the combined in-situ and ground-based observations: the earthward motion of magnetic flux ropes containing lobe plasmas that form along an extended magnetotail reconnection line in the near-Earth plasma sheet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Kinetic Alfvén waves and particle response associated with a shock-induced, global ULF perturbation of the terrestrial magnetosphere

On 2 October 2013, the arrival of an interplanetary shock compressed the Earth's magnetosphere and triggered a global ULF (ultra low frequency) oscillation. Furthermore, the Van Allen Probe B spacecraft observed this large-amplitude ULF wave in situ with both magnetic and electric field data. Broadband waves up to approximately 100 Hz were observed in conjunction with, and modulated by, this ULF wave. Detailed analysis of fields and particle data reveals that these broadband waves are Doppler-shifted kinetic Alfvén waves. This event then suggests that magnetospheric compression by interplanetary shocks can induce abrupt generation of kinetic Alfvén waves over large portions of the inner magnetosphere, potentially driving previously unconsidered wave-particle interactions throughout the inner magnetosphere during the initial response of the magnetosphere to shock impacts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Observations of discrete magnetosonic waves off the magnetic equator

Fast mode magnetosonic waves are typically confined close to the magnetic equator and exhibit harmonic structures at multiples of the local, equatorial proton cyclotron frequency. Here, we report observations of magnetosonic waves well off the equator at geomagnetic latitudes from -16.5°to -17.9° and L shell ~2.7–4.6. The observed waves exhibit discrete spectral structures with multiple frequency spacings. The predominant frequency spacings are ~6 and 9 Hz, neither of which is equal to the local proton cyclotron frequency. Backward ray tracing simulations show that the feature of multiple frequency spacings is caused by propagation from two spatially narrow equatorial source regions located at L ≈ 4.2 and 3.7. The equatorial proton cyclotron frequencies at those two locations match the two observed frequency spacings. Finally, our analysis provides the first observations of the harmonic nature of magnetosonic waves well away from the equatorial region and suggests that the propagation from multiple equatorial sources contributes to these off-equatorial magnetosonic emissions with varying frequency spacings.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during small geomagnetic storms

We report that past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms (Dst >₋50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result in flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit

Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of these predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The two-way relationship between ionospheric outflow and the ring current

It is now well established that the ionosphere, because it acts as a significant source of plasma, plays a critical role in ring current dynamics. However, because the ring current deposits energy into the ionosphere, the inverse may also be true: the ring current can play a critical role in the dynamics of ionospheric outflow. This study uses a set of coupled, first-principles-based numerical models to test the dependence of ionospheric outflow on ring current-driven region 2 field-aligned currents (FACs). A moderate magnetospheric storm event is modeled with the Space Weather Modeling Framework using a global MHD code (Block Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US), a polar wind model (Polar Wind Outflow Model), and a bounce-averaged kinetic ring current model (ring current atmosphere interaction model with self-consistent magnetic field, RAM-SCB). Initially, each code is two-way coupled to all others except for RAM-SCB, which receives inputs from the other models but is not allowed to feed back pressure into the MHD model. The simulation is repeated with pressure coupling activated, which drives strong pressure gradients and region 2 FACs in BATS-R-US. It is found that the region 2 FACs increase heavy ion outflow by up to 6 times over the non-coupled results. The additional outflow further energizes the ring current, establishing an ionosphere-magnetosphere mass feedback loop. This study further demonstrates that ionospheric outflow is not merely a plasma source for the magnetosphere but an integral part in the nonlinear ionosphere-magnetosphere-ring current system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Survey of radiation belt energetic electron pitch angle distributions based on the Van Allen Probes MagEIS measurements: Electron Pitch Angle Distributions

A statistical survey of electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) is performed based on the pitch angle-resolved flux observations from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument on board the Van Allen Probes during the period from 1 October 2012 to 1 May 2015. By fitting the measured PADs to a sin n α form, where α is the local pitch angle and n is the power law index, we investigate the dependence of PADs on electron kinetic energy, magnetic local time (MLT), the geomagnetic Kp index, and L shell. The difference in electron PADs between the inner and outer belt is distinct. In the outer belt, the common averaged n values are less than 1.5, except for large values of the Kp index and high electron energies. The averaged n values vary considerably with MLT, with a peak in the afternoon sector and an increase with increasing L shell. In the inner belt, the averaged n values are much larger, with a common value greater than 2. The PADs show a slight dependence on MLT, with a weak maximum at noon. A distinct region with steep PADs lies in the outer edge of the inner belt where the electron flux is relatively low. The distance between the inner and outer belt and the intensity of the geomagnetic activity together determine the variation of PADs in the inner belt. Finally, besides being dependent on electron energy, magnetic activity, and L shell, the results show a clear dependence on MLT, with higher n values on the dayside.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Nonlinearity in chorus waves during a geomagnetic storm on 1 November 2012

In this study, we investigate the possibility of nonlinearity in chorus waves during a geomagnetic storm on 1 November 2012. The data we use were measured by the Van Allen Probe B. Wave data and plasma sheet electron data are analyzed. Chorus waves were frequently measured in the morning side during the main phase of this storm. Large–amplitude chorus waves were seen of the order of ~0.6 nT and >7 mV/m, which are similar to or larger than the typical ULF waves. The waves quite often consist of rising tones during the burst sampling. Since the rising tone is known as a signature of nonlinearity, a large portion of the waves are regarded as nonlinear at least during the burst sampling periods. These results underline the importance of nonlinearity in the dynamics of chorus waves. We further compare the measurement and the nonlinear theories, based on the inhomogeneity ratio, our own calculation derived from the field equation and the backward wave oscillator model. The wave quantities examined are frequency, amplitude, frequency drift rate, and duration. Furthermore, this type of study is useful to more deeply understand wave-particle interactions and hence may lead to predicting the generation and loss of radiation belt electrons in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

O + ion conic and plasma sheet dynamics observed by Van Allen Probe satellites during the 1 June 2013 magnetic storm: Energetic Inner Magnetosphere O + Ions

The Van Allen Probe satellites were near apogee in the late evening local time sector during the 1 June 2013 magnetic storm's main phase. About an hour after crossing the ring current's “nose structure” into the plasma sheet, the satellites encountered a quasiperiodic sequence of 0.08–3 keV O + ions. Pitch angle distributions of this population consistently peaked nearly antiparallel to the local magnetic field. We then interpret this population as O + conics originating in the northern ionosphere. The sequences began as fairly steady state conic fluxes with energies in the ~ 80 to 100 eV range. Over about a half hour buildup phase, O + energies peaked near 1 keV. During subsequent release phases lasting ~ 20 min, O + energies returned to low-energy starting points. We argue these observations reflect repeated formations and dissolutions of downward, magnetically aligned electric fields (ε||) layers trapping O + conics between mirror points within heating layers below and electrostatic barriers above. Nearly identical variations were observed at the locations of both satellites during 9 of these 13 conic cycles. Phase differences between cycles were observed at both spacecraft during the remaining events. Most “buildup” to “release” phase transitions coincided with AL index minima. But, in situ magnetometer measurements indicate only weak dipolarizations of tail-like magnetic fields. The lack of field-aligned reflected O + and tail-like magnetic fields suggest that both ionospheres may be active. However, Southern Hemisphere origin conics cannot be observed since they would be isotropized and accelerated during neutral sheet crossings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗