Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “MARKOV”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Solar data uncertainty impacts on MCMC methods for r-process nucleosynthesis

In recent work, we developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure to predict the ground state masses capable of forming the observed Solar r-process rare-earth abundance peak. By applying this method to nucleosynthesis calculations which make use of distinct astrophysical conditions and comparing our results to the latest precision mass measurements, we are able to shed light on the conditions/masses capable of producing a rare-earth peak which matches Solar data. Here we examine how our mass predictions change when using a few different sets of r-process Solar abundance residuals that have been reported in the literature. We explore how the differing error estimates of these Solar evaluations propagate through the Markov Chain Monte Carlo to our mass predictions. We find that Solar data which reports the rare-earth peak to have its highest abundance at mass number A = 162 can require distinctly different mass predictions from data with the peak centered at A = 164. Nevertheless, we find that two important general conclusions from past work, regarding the inconsistency of ‘cold’ astrophysical outflows with current mass measurements and the need for local stability at N = 104 in ‘hot’ scenarios, remain robust in the face of differing Solar data evaluations. Additionally, we show that the masses our procedure finds capable of producing a peak at A < 164 are not in line with the latest precision mass measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning and Economic Models to Enable Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance of a Nuclear Plant Asset

The primary objective of this research is to address challenges in the implementation of risk-informed, condition-based predictive maintenance (PdM), which reduces operating costs while still maintaining the safety and reliability of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To achieve the objective, risk models are being developed by taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, deep learning, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI). The notable outcomes presented in the report include ? Development of a ML models using heterogeneous plant process and vibration data collected at different spatial and temporal resolutions from the Salem?s CWS to diagnose a circulating water pump (CWP) failure based on salient fault signatures. The developed diagnostic models are extendable to other faults associated with CWPs and CWP motors given associated fault signatures. ? Development of a natural language processing (NLP) technique to automatically classify the WO data into different categories. The developed NLP technique was validated on independent WO data. This automates the tedious and time-consuming activity of mining and classifying WOs by subject matter experts. ? Estimation of mean time between downtime (i.e., time duration between time instances when 1 or more CWPs are not available) and developed an approach to establish reliability of CWS components using unstructured WO data along with CWS plant process data. ? Formulation of economic model based on Markov chain models. The parameters of associated with the transition rate between different states of Markov chain models were estimated using WO data. The economic model formulation and discussion captures both time-independent and time-dependent parameter variation, leading to risk-informed decision-making.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

PANDEMIC: Occupancy driven predictive ventilation control to minimize energy consumption and infection risk

During the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, governments around the world have formulated policies requiring ventilation systems to operate at a higher outdoor fresh air flow rate for a sufficient time, which has led to a sharp increase in building energy consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to identify an energy-efficient ventilation strategy to reduce the risk of infection. In this study, we developed an occupant-number-based model predictive control (OBMPC) algorithm for building ventilation systems. First, we collected the occupancy and Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVAC) data from March to July 2021. Then, four different models (Auto regression moving average-based multilayer perceptron (ARMA_MLP), Recurrent neural networks (RNN), Long short-term memory networks (LSTM), and Nonhomogeneous Markov with change points detection (NH_Markov)) were used to predict the number of room occupants from 15 min to 24 h ahead with an interval output. We found that each model could predict the number of occupants with 85% accuracy using a one-person offset. Furthermore, the accuracy of 15 min of the ahead prediction could reach 95% with a one-person offset, but none of them could track abrupt changes. The occupancy prediction results were used to calculate the ventilation demand using the Wells-Riley equation, and the upper bound can maintain an infection risk lower than 2% for 93% of the day. This OBMPC model could reduce the coil load by 52.44% and shift the peak load by 3 h up to 5 kW compared with 24 × 7 h full outdoor air (OA) system when people wear masks in the space. The occupancy prediction uncertainty could cause a 9% to 26% difference in demand ventilation, a 0.3°C to 2.4°C difference in zone temperature, a 28.5% to 44.5% difference in outdoor airflow rate, and a 10.7% to 28.2% difference in coil load.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian uncertainty quantification of tristructural isotropic particle fuel silver release: Decomposing model inadequacy plus experimental noise and parametric uncertainties

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is one of the most promising fuel concepts enabling high temperature and high burnup reactor operation. One dominant source of radioactivity released from the TRISO particles is silver (Ag), which is subject to a high release fraction and long decay life compared to other fission products. Previous modeling efforts using the fuel performance code BISON indicated nonnegligible uncertainties in modeling the diffusion process of fission products in TRISO compared to the Advanced Gas Reactor experiments. The overall uncertainties observed when modeling the fission product diffusion can result from uncertainties in model parameters, noisy experimental measurements, and deficiencies in the developed models. The three types of underlying uncertainties have not yet been properly quantified in open literature. Here, this paper presents the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) using massively parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers. The uncertainties due to model parameters, model inadequacy, and experimental measurement noise are quantified, with the σ term used to represent the sum of the model inadequacy and measurement noise uncertainties. It is worth noting that this is the first time the σ term is inferred for nuclear fuel experiments, as compared to using prescribed values for uncertainty quantification in previous work. The parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers efficiently infer the model parameters and the σ term, giving insight into physical parameters like diffusion coefficients and the combined model discrepancy and measurement noise. A subsequent forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) is also performed based on the calibration results to generate more accurate predictions of the Ag release. The model inadequacy plus experimental noise is the most dominant source of uncertainty compared to the parametric uncertainty. All the UQ analyses presented in this work are based on the second series of the irradiation experiments in the Advanced Gas Reactor program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Aspects of Single-Molecule Kinetics for Coupled Catalytic Cycles: A Spectral Analysis

Catalysis from single active sites is analyzed using methods developed from single molecule kinetics. Using a stochastic Markov state description, the observable properties of general catalytic networks of reactions are expressed using an eigenvalue decomposition of the transition matrix for the Markov process. By the use of a sensitivity analysis, the necessary eigenvalues and eigenvectors are related to the energies of controlling barriers and wells located along the reaction routes. A generalization of the energetic span theory allows the eigenvalues to be computed from several activation energies corresponding to distinct barrier-well pairings. The formalism is demonstrated accurately for model problems for a physically realistic mechanism for an alkene hydrogenation reaction on a single atom catalyst.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unorthodox parallelization for Bayesian quantum state estimation

Quantum state tomography (QST) allows for the reconstruction of quantum states through measurements and some inference technique under the assumption of repeated state preparations. Bayesian inference provides a promising platform to achieve both efficient QST and accurate uncertainty quantification, yet is generally plagued by the computational limitations associated with long Markov chains. In this work, we present a novel Bayesian QST approach that leverages modern distributed parallel computer architectures to efficiently sample a D-dimensional Hilbert space. Using a parallelized preconditioned Crank–Nicholson Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, we demonstrate our approach on simulated data and experimental results from IBM Quantum systems up to four qubits, showing significant speedups through parallelization. Although highly unorthodox in pooling independent Markov chains, our method proves remarkably practical, with validation ex post facto via diagnostics like the intrachain autocorrelation time. We conclude by discussing scalability to higher-dimensional systems, offering a path toward efficient and accurate Bayesian characterization of large quantum systems.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning to Unknot

We introduce natural language processing into the study of knot theory, as made natural by the braid word representation of knots. We study the UNKNOT problem of determining whether or not a given knot is the unknot. After describing an algorithm to randomly generate N-crossing braids and their knot closures and discussing the induced prior on the distribution of knots, we apply binary classification to the UNKNOT decision problem. We find that the Reformer and shared-QK Transformer network architectures outperform fully-connected networks, though all perform at 95% accuracy. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that accuracy increases with the length of the braid word, and that the networks learn a direct correlation between the confidence of their predictions and the degree of the Jones polynomial. Finally, we utilize reinforcement learning (RL) to find sequences of Markov moves and braid relations that simplify knots and can identify unknots by explicitly giving the sequence of unknotting actions. Trust region policy optimization (TRPO) performs consistently well, reducing 80% of the unknots with up to 96 crossings we tested to the empty braid word, and thoroughly outperformed other RL algorithms and random walkers. Studying these actions, we find that braid relations are more useful in simplifying to the unknot than one of the Markov moves.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

End-to-end learning of multiple sequence alignments with differentiable Smith–Waterman

Abstract Motivation Multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) of homologous sequences contain information on structural and functional constraints and their evolutionary histories. Despite their importance for many downstream tasks, such as structure prediction, MSA generation is often treated as a separate pre-processing step, without any guidance from the application it will be used for. Results Here, we implement a smooth and differentiable version of the Smith–Waterman pairwise alignment algorithm that enables jointly learning an MSA and a downstream machine learning system in an end-to-end fashion. To demonstrate its utility, we introduce SMURF (Smooth Markov Unaligned Random Field), a new method that jointly learns an alignment and the parameters of a Markov Random Field for unsupervised contact prediction. We find that SMURF learns MSAs that mildly improve contact prediction on a diverse set of protein and RNA families. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that by connecting our differentiable alignment module to AlphaFold2 and maximizing predicted confidence, we can learn MSAs that improve structure predictions over the initial MSAs. Interestingly, the alignments that improve AlphaFold predictions are self-inconsistent and can be viewed as adversarial. This work highlights the potential of differentiable dynamic programming to improve neural network pipelines that rely on an alignment and the potential dangers of optimizing predictions of protein sequences with methods that are not fully understood. Availability and implementation Our code and examples are available at: https://github.com/spetti/SMURF. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs

When the time of an HIV transmission event is unknown, methods to identify it from virus genetic data can reveal the circumstances that enable transmission. We developed a single-parameter Markov model to infer transmission time from an HIV phylogeny constructed of multiple virus sequences from people in a transmission pair. Our method finds the statistical support for transmission occurring in different possible time slices. We compared our time-slice model results to previously described methods: a tree-based logical transmission interval, a simple parsimony-like rules-based method, and a more complex coalescent model. Across simulations with multiple transmitted lineages, different transmission times relative to the source’s infection, and different sampling times relative to transmission, we found that overall our time-slice model provided accurate and narrower estimates of the time of transmission. We also identified situations when transmission time or direction was difficult to estimate by any method, particularly when transmission occurred long after the source was infected and when sampling occurred long after transmission. Applying our model to real HIV transmission pairs showed some agreement with facts known from the case investigations. We also found, however, that uncertainty on the inferred transmission time was driven more by uncertainty from time calibration of the phylogeny than from the model inference itself. Encouragingly, comparable performance of the Markov time-slice model and the coalescent model—which make use of different information within a tree—suggests that a new method remains to be described that will make full use of the topology and node times for improved transmission time inference.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward shell model interactions with credible uncertainties

Background: The nuclear shell model is a powerful framework for predicting nuclear structure observables, but relies on interaction matrix elements fit to experimental data as its inputs. Extending the shell model's applicability, particularly toward dripline nuclei, requires efficient fitting methods and credible uncertainty quantification. Traditional approaches face computational challenges and may underestimate uncertainties. Purpose: We develop and test a framework combining eigenvector continuation and Markov chain Monte Carlo to efficiently fit shell model interaction matrix elements and quantify their uncertainties. Methods: Eigenvector continuation is used to emulate shell model calculations, reducing computational costs. The emulator enables Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to optimize interaction matrix elements and rigorously assess parametric uncertainties. Here, the framework is benchmarked using the USDB interaction in the 𝑠⁢𝑑 shell. Results: The emulator reproduces the USDB interaction with negligible error, validating its use in shell model fitting applications. However, we find that to obtain credible predictive intervals, the model defect of the shell model itself, rather than experimental or emulator error, must be taken into account in order to obtain credible uncertainties. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an efficient and rigorous approach for fitting shell model interactions and quantifying uncertainties. Further, the normality assumption used in the past appears sufficient to describe the distribution of interaction matrix elements. However, it is crucial to account for model correlations to avoid underestimating uncertainties.

Nuclear forces↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adversarial autoencoder ensemble for fast and probabilistic reconstructions of few-shot photon correlation functions for solid-state quantum emitters

Second-order photon correlation measurements [g (2) (τ) functions] are widely used to classify single-photon emission purity in quantum emitters or to measure the multiexciton quantum yield of emitters that can simultaneously host multiple excitations – such as quantum dots – by evaluating the value of g (2) (τ = 0). Accumulating enough photons to accurately calculate this value is time consuming and could be accelerated by fitting of few-shot photon correlations. Here, we develop an uncertainty-aware, deep adversarial autoencoder ensemble (AAE) that reconstructs noise-free g (2) (τ) functions from noise-dominated, few-shot inputs. The model is trained with simulated g (2) (τ) functions that are facilely generated by Poisson sampling time bins. The AAE reconstructions are performed orders-of-magnitude faster, with reconstruction errors and estimates of g (2) (τ = 0) that are lower in variance and similar in accuracy compared to Maximum likelihood estimation and Levenberg-Marquardt least-squares fitting approaches, for simulated and experimentally measured few-shot g (2) (τ) functions (~100 two-photon events) of InP/ZnS/ZnSe and CdS/CdSe/CdS quantum dots. The deep-ensemble model comprises eight individual autoencoders, allowing for probabilistic reconstructions of noise-free g (2) (τ) functions, and we show that the predicted variance scales inversely with number of shots, with comparable uncertainties to computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, this work demonstrates the advantage of machine learning models to perform uncertainty-aware, fast, and accurate reconstructions of simple Poisson-distributed photon correlation functions, allowing for on-the-fly reconstructions and accelerated materials characterization of solid-state quantum emitters.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum Algorithm for High Energy Physics Simulations

Simulating quantum field theories is a flagship application of quantum computing. However, calculating experimentally relevant high energy scattering amplitudes entirely on a quantum computer is prohibitively difficult. It is well known that such high energy scattering processes can be factored into pieces that can be computed using well established perturbative techniques, and pieces which currently have to be simulated using classical Markov chain algorithms. These classical Markov chain simulation approaches work well to capture many of the salient features, but cannot capture all quantum effects. To exploit quantum resources in the most efficient way, we introduce a new paradigm for quantum algorithms in field theories. This approach uses quantum computers only for those parts of the problem which are not computable using existing techniques. In particular, we develop a polynomial time quantum final state shower that accurately models the effects of intermediate spin states similar to those present in high energy electroweak showers with a global evolution variable. The algorithm is explicitly demonstrated for a simplified quantum field theory on a quantum computer.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generalized master equation for particle transport in binary random media with renewal statistics

Particle transport in binary stochastic mixtures is classically modeled assuming Markovian or exponential mixing statistics but in many applications material memory invalidates the Markov assumption. For non-Markovian mixing characterized by alternating renewal processes, a transport-theoretic framework is presented that provides an exact description of transport in nonscattering random binary media with general non-exponential statistics. Our approach is to Markovianize the problem by augmenting the {material type, particle flux} state space with the age or distance from the last interface. A Chapman-Kolmogorov equation is formulated for the joint probability density of the material type, particle flux, and age, and subsequently reduced to a generalized Master equation (GME) in differential form. This constitutes the primary result of this work. A state-updating Monte Carlo algorithm consistent with the GME is developed and benchmarked against analytical solutions for multiple chord-length laws. For purely absorbing renewal statistical media, the GME reproduces analytical benchmarks for the equilibrium age distribution, interior mean/variance of material-conditioned fluxes, and boundary transmittance. Simulations further demonstrate that a Markov (exponential) approximation of non-exponential statistics can introduce large errors in transmittance and interior flux profiles. Lastly, the reintroduction of memory due to scattering is briefly addressed through heuristic considerations.

Fluctuations & noise↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Landscape of Distributed Graph Clustering on Leadership Supercomputers

The rapid growth of large-scale datasets in fields like biology and social networks has driven the need for advanced graph analytics techniques. Community detection, a fundamental task in graph analytics, identifies closely connected groups of nodes within a network, providing valuable insights across various disciplines. This study focuses on two classic community detection methods, the Louvain algorithm and Markov Clustering (MCL), and evaluates the performance of two prominent distributed community detection algorithms: HiPDPL-GPU, our prior implementation, and HipMCL. We conduct experiments on GPU-accelerated heterogeneous HPC systems, Summit and Frontier, to assess their performance under varying conditions. Our objective is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of these algorithms in terms of scalability, and quality of solutions. We evaluate these algorithms on a diverse set of 70+ networks spanning 13 domains, with sizes ranging up to 4.2 billion edges. Our results demonstrate that HiPDPL-GPU consistently outperforms HipMCL, especially for large-scale networks. HiPDPL-GPU achieves significantly faster runtimes (47x to 1439x), higher modularity scores, and improved scalability. These findings highlight HiPDPL-GPU as a promising solution for efficient and effective large-scale graph analytics in diverse application domains, and provide insights into the feasibility of using MCL-based approaches for certain application domains.

Community detection, graph algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2025

pnnl/MCRASTA

McRasta (Markov Chain Rate and State Analysis) was developed to estimate parameter uncertainty in constitutive friction models via Bayesian inverse and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Fichera, Marissa [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conin

SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Automatic Learning Framework for Smart Residential Communities

Predictability has been foundational to matching supply and demand in the day-to-day operation of the electric power system. Demand predictability is eroding because of the increased use of renewable energy resources and more sophisticated loads, such as electric vehicles and smart appliances. In this paper, an automatic software framework is described which can be used for load forecasting in smart communities. A time-varying clustering-based Markov chain approach is used to predict the energy consumption of residential buildings in a smart community. The training data is based on 1-minute meter data of occupied homes over one month. The data points are first clustered based on the energy consumption and the time of the day. Then, the original data is converted using the Centroids of the clusters. A time-varying Markov chain is subsequently trained to model the energy consumption behavior of residents for each home using the transformed data. The trained model is shown to successfully predict load in 5-minute intervals over a 24 hours period.

Zandi, Helia↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supporting data for climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

This data supports the conclusions found in climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics. Included here are (i) the binarized geolocation vectors used for exhaustive vector comparisons, (ii) the resulting climatic networks, (iii) the results of applying Markov clustering to the climatic networks, and (iv) the results of applying Correlation-of-Correlations (cor-cor) to the climatic networks. The set of binarized geolocation vectors that are used as inputs for the Combinatorial Metrics library (CoMet) are of the form comet-UUUUUxVVVVV-XXXX-YYYY.shuffled.tped where UUUUU is the number of vectors, VVVVV is the length of each vector, XXXX is the starting year, and YYYY is the ending year. Each line corresponds to a geolocation vector of binary elements A (i.e., 0) and T (i.e., 1). The set of climatic networks that are used for downstream network analysis are of the form network-U-way-XXXX-YYYY.parsed.txt where U is the order of the comparison (2-way or 3-way), XXXX is the starting year, and YYYY is the ending year. Each line corresponds to an edge linking two geolocations (defined by latitude and longitude) with its corresponding edge weight (i.e., DUO score). The set of cluster results are of the form clusters-U-way-XXXX-YYYY-thresh-VVVV-inflation-WWW.clustered.txt where U is the order of the comparison (2-way or 3-way), XXXX is the starting year, YYYY is the ending year, VVVV is the similarity threshold, and WWW is the Markov clustering inflation rate. Each line corresponds to a single cluster and is composed of a number of corresponding geolocations (defined by latitude and longitude). The set of cor-cor results are of the form corcor-U-way-XXXX-YYYY.cumulative.txt where U is the order of the comparison (2-way or 3-way), XXXX is the starting year, and YYYY is the ending year. Each line corresponds to a single geolocation with it's corresponding cor-cor value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗