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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Earth as an Exoplanet. I. Time Variable Thermal Emission Using Spatially Resolved Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer Data

Among the more than 4000 exoplanets known today, some terrestrial planets have been detected in the so-called habitable zone of their host stars and their number is expected to increase in the near future, energizing a drive to understand and interpret the eagerly awaited wealth of data to identify signs of life beyond our solar system. So far, Earth remains the best and only example of a habitable (and inhabited) world. Although, it seems extremely unlikely that any other exoplanets will be true Earth twins, it is important to explore and understand the full range of spectral signatures and variability of Earth in order to inform the design of future instruments and missions, and understand their diagnostic power as well as potential limitations. In this work we use Earth observation data collected by the MODIS instrument aboard the Aqua satellite. The complete data set comprises 15 years of thermal emission observations in the 3.66–14.40 μm range for five different locations on Earth (Amazon Rainforest, Antarctica, Arctic, Indian Ocean, and the Sahara Desert). We then determine flux levels and variations as a function of wavelength and surface type (i.e., climate zone and surface thermal properties) and investigate whether periodic signals indicating Earth’s tilted rotation axis can be detected. Our findings suggest that (1) viewing geometry plays an important role when thermal emission data is analyzed as Earth’s spectrum varies by a factor of three and more depending on the dominant surface type underneath; (2) typically strong absorption bands from CO 2 (15 μm) and O 3 (9.65 μm) are significantly less pronounced and partially absent in data from the polar regions implying that estimating correct abundance levels for these molecules might be challenging in these cases; and (3) the time-resolved thermal emission spectrum encodes information about seasons/planetary obliquity, but the significance depends on the viewing geometry and spectral band considered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differences in fine particle chemical composition on clear and cloudy days

Clouds are prevalent and alter fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) mass and chemical composition. Cloud-affected satellite retrievals are subject to higher uncertainty and are often removed from data products, hindering quantitative estimates of tropospheric chemical composition during cloudy times. We examine surface PM 2.5 chemical constituent concentrations in the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network in the United States during cloudy and clear-sky times defined using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud flags from 2010 to 2014 with a focus on differences in particle species that affect hygroscopicity and aerosol liquid water (ALW). Cloudy and clear-sky periods exhibit significant differences in PM 2.5 mass and chemical composition that vary regionally and seasonally. In the eastern US, relative humidity alone cannot explain differences in ALW, suggesting that emissions and in situ chemistry related to anthropogenic sources exert determining impacts. An implicit clear-sky bias may hinder efforts to quantitatively understand and improve representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, which remain dominant uncertainties in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct and semi-direct radiative forcing of biomass-burning aerosols over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) and its sensitivity to absorbing properties: a regional climate modeling study

Simulations are performed for the period 2000-2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July-August-September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10°S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ~0.5-1K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ~0.2-0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m -2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m -2 (most absorbing BBAs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new classification of satellite-derived liquid water cloud regimes at cloud scale

Clouds are highly variable in time and space, affecting climate sensitivity and climate change. To study and distinguish the different influences of clouds on the climate system, it is useful to separate clouds into individual cloud regimes. In this work we present a new cloud classification for liquid water clouds at cloud scale defined using cloud parameters retrieved from combined satellite measurements from CloudSat and CALIPSO. The idea is that cloud heterogeneity is a measure that allows us to distinguish cumuliform and stratiform clouds, and cloud-base height is a measure to distinguish cloud altitude. The approach makes use of a newly developed cloud-base height retrieval. Using three cloud-base height intervals and two intervals of cloud-top variability as an inhomogeneity parameter provides six new liquid cloud classes. The results show a smooth transition between marine and continental clouds as well as between stratiform and cumuliform clouds in different latitudes at the high spatial resolution of about 20 km. Analysing the micro- and macrophysical cloud parameters from collocated combined MODIS, CloudSat and CALIPSO retrievals shows distinct characteristics for each cloud regime that are in agreement with expectation and literature. This demonstrates the usefulness of the classification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Open cells exhibit weaker entrainment of free-tropospheric biomass burning aerosol into the south-east Atlantic boundary layer

This work presents synergistic satellite, airborne and surface-based observations of a pocket of open cells (POC) in the remote south-east Atlantic. The observations were obtained over and upwind of Ascension Island during the CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing (CLARIFY) and the Layered Smoke Interacting with Clouds (LASIC) field experiments. A novel aspect of this case study is that an extensive free-tropospheric biomass burning aerosol plume that had been transported from the African continent was observed to be in contact with the boundary layer inversion over the POC and the surrounding closed cellular cloud regime. The in situ measurements show marked contrasts in the boundary layer thermodynamic structure, cloud properties, precipitation and aerosol conditions between the open cells and surrounding overcast cloud field. The data demonstrate that the overlying biomass burning aerosol was mixing down into the boundary layer in the stratocumulus cloud downwind of the POC, with elevated carbon monoxide, black carbon mass loadings and accumulation-mode aerosol concentrations measured beneath the trade-wind inversion. The stratocumulus cloud in this region was moderately polluted and exhibited very little precipitation falling below cloud base. A rapid transition to actively precipitating cumulus clouds and detrained stratiform remnants in the form of thin quiescent veil clouds was observed across the boundary into and deep within the POC. The subcloud layer in the POC was much cleaner than that in the stratocumulus region. The clouds in the POC formed within an ultra-clean layer (accumulation-mode aerosol concentrations of approximately a few cm -3 ) in the upper region of the boundary layer, which was likely to have been formed via efficient collision–coalescence and sedimentation processes. Enhanced Aitken-mode aerosol concentrations were also observed intermittently in this ultra-clean layer, suggesting that new particle formation was taking place. Across the boundary layer inversion and immediately above the ultra-clean layer, accumulation-mode aerosol concentrations were ~1000 cm -3 . Importantly, the air mass in the POC showed no evidence of elevated carbon monoxide over and above typical background conditions at this location and time of year. As carbon monoxide is a good tracer for biomass burning aerosol that is not readily removed by cloud processing and precipitation, it demonstrates that the open cellular convection in the POC is not able to entrain large quantities of the free-tropospheric aerosol that was sitting directly on top of the boundary layer inversion. This suggests that the structure of the mesoscale cellular convection may play an important role in regulating the transport of aerosol from the free troposphere down into the marine boundary layer. We then develop a climatology of open cellular cloud conditions in the south-east Atlantic from 19 years of September Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra imagery. This shows that the maxima in open cell frequency (> 0.25) occurs far offshore and in a region where subsiding biomass burning aerosol plumes may often come into contact with the underlying boundary layer cloud. If the results from the observational case study applied more broadly, then the apparent low susceptibility of open cells to free-tropospheric intrusions of additional cloud condensation nuclei could have some important consequences for aerosol–cloud interactions in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations of supermicron-sized aerosols originating from biomass burning in southern Central Africa

During the 3 years of the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) campaign, the NASA Orion P-3 was equipped with a 2D stereo (2D-S) probe that imaged particles with maximum dimension (D) ranging from 10 < D < 1280 µm. The 2D-S recorded supermicron-sized aerosol particles (SAPs) outside of clouds within biomass burning plumes during flights over the southeastern Atlantic off Africa's coast. Numerous SAPs with 10 < D < 1520 µm were observed in 2017 and 2018 at altitudes between 1230 and 4000 m, 1000 km from the coastline, mostly between 7–11° S. No SAPs were observed in 2016 as flights were conducted further south and further from the coastline. Number concentrations of refractory black carbon (rBC) measured by a single particle soot photometer ranged from 200 to 1200 cm –3 when SAPs were observed. Transmission electron microscopy images of submicron particulates, collected on Holey carbon grid filters, revealed particles with potassium salts, black carbon (BC), and organics. Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy spectra also detected potassium, a tracer for biomass burning. These measurements provided evidence that the submicron particles originated from biomass burning. NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) 3 d back trajectories show a source in northern Angola for times when large SAPs were observed. Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 6 active fire maps showed extensive biomass burning at these locations. Given the back trajectories, the high number concentrations of rBC, and the presence of elemental tracers indicative of biomass burning, it is hypothesized that the SAPs imaged by the 2D-S are examples of BC aerosol, ash, or unburned plant material.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Natural marine cloud brightening in the Southern Ocean

Abstract. The number of cloud droplets per unit volume (Nd) is a fundamentally important property of marine boundary layer (MBL) liquid clouds that, at constant liquid water path, exerts considerable controls on albedo. Past work has shown that regional Nd has a direct correlation to marine primary productivity (PP) because of the role of seasonally varying, biogenically derived precursor gases in modulating secondary aerosol properties. These linkages are thought to be observable over the high-latitude oceans, where strong seasonal variability in aerosol and meteorology covary in mostly pristine environments. Here, we examine Nd variability derived from 5 years of MODIS Level 2-derived cloud properties in a broad region of the summer eastern Southern Ocean and adjacent marginal seas. We demonstrate latitudinal, longitudinal and temporal gradients in Nd that are strongly correlated with the passage of air masses over high-PP waters that are mostly concentrated along the Antarctic Shelf poleward of 60∘ S. We find that the albedo of MBL clouds in the latitudes south of 60∘ S is significantly higher than similar liquid water path (LWP) clouds north of this latitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of covariance of aerosol and meteorology on co-located precipitating and non-precipitating clouds over the Indo-Gangetic Plain

Aerosol–cloud–precipitation interaction (ACPI) plays a pivotal role in the global and regional water cycle and the earth's energy budget; however, it remains highly uncertain due to the different underlying physical mechanisms. Therefore, this study aims to systematically analyze the effects of aerosols and meteorological factors on ACPI in the co-located precipitating clouds (PCs) and non-precipitating clouds (NPCs) in winter and summer seasons by employing the long-term (2001–2021) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) coupled with the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-II datasets over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The results exhibit a decadal increase in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over Lahore (5.2 %), Delhi (9 %), Kanpur (10.7 %), and Gandhi College (22.7 %) and a decrease over Karachi (-1.9 %) and Jaipur (-0.5 %). The most stable meteorology with high values of lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) is found in both seasons over Karachi. In the summer season, the occurrence frequency of clouds is high (74 %) over Gandhi College, 60 % of which are PCs. Conversely, the lowest number of PCs is found over Karachi. Similarly, in the winter season, the frequency of cloud occurrence is low over Karachi and high over Lahore and Gandhi College. The analysis of cloud top pressure (CTP) and cloud optical thickness (COT) indicates high values of cloud fraction (CF) for thick and high-level clouds over all study areas except Karachi. The microphysical properties such as cloud effective radius (CER) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) bear high values (CER ≳ 15 µm and CDNC ≳ 50 cm -3 ) for both NPCs and PCs in summer. The AOD–CER correlation is good (weak) for PCs (NPCs) in winter. Similarly, the sensitivity value of the first indirect effect (FIE) is high (ranging from 0.2 ± 0.13 to 0.3 ± 0.01 in winter and from 0.19 ± 0.03 to 0.32 ± 0.05 in summer) for PCs and low for NPCs. The sensitivity value for the second indirect effect (SIE) is relatively higher (such as 0.6 ± 0.14 in winter and 0.4 ± 0.04 in summer) than FIE. Sensitivity values of the aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) are low (i.e., -0.06 ± 0.09) for PCs in summer. Furthermore, the precipitation rate (PR) exhibits high values in the summer season, primarily due to the significant contribution from optically thick clouds with lower CDNC (≲ 50 cm -3 ) and larger CER and the intermediate contribution from optically thick clouds with higher CDNC ( ≳ 50 cm -3 ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote-sensing detectability of airborne Arctic dust

Remote-sensing (RS)-based estimates of Arctic dust are oftentimes overestimated due to a failure in separating out the dust contribution from that of spatially homogeneous clouds or low-altitude cloud-like plumes. A variety of illustrations are given with a particular emphasis on questionable claims of using brightness temperature differences (BTDs) as a signature indicator of Arctic dust transported from mid-latitude deserts or generated by local Arctic sources. While there is little dispute about the presence of both Asian and local dust across the Arctic, the direct RS detectability of airborne dust, as ascribed to satellite (MODIS and AVHRR) measurements of significantly negative brightness temperature differences at 11 and 12 µm (BTD 11–12 ), has been misrepresented in certain cases. While it is difficult to account for all examples of strongly negative BTD 11–12 values in the Arctic, it is unlikely that airborne dust plays a significant role. One much more likely contributor would be water clouds in the Arctic inversion layer. The RS detectability of the impact of Arctic dust (notably due to Arctic dust from local sources) can, however, be of significance. Sustained dust deposition can substantially decrease (visible to shortwave IR) snow and ice reflectance albedo (pan-chromatic reflectance) and the signal measured by satellite sensors. Significantly negative BTD 11–12 values would, however, only represent a limited area near the drainage basin sources according to our event-level case studies. The enhanced ice-nucleating particle (INP) role of local Arctic dust can, for example, induce significant changes in the properties of low-level mixed-phase clouds (cloud optical depth changes <~ 1) that can readily be detected by active and passive RS instruments. It is critical that the distinction between the RS detectability of airborne Arctic dust versus the RS detectability of the impacts of that dust be understood if we are to appropriately parameterize, for example, the radiative forcing influence of dust in this climate-sensitive region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact on cloud properties of reduced-sulphur shipping fuel in the Eastern North Atlantic

The global reduction in shipping fuel sulphur that culminated in 2020 with an ∼ 80 % reduction has created a large-scale natural experiment on the role of aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) in the climate system. We compare observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Eastern North Atlantic site (ARM-ENA; 39.1° N, 28.0° W) during two June to September periods: 2016–2018 (pre-2020) and 2021–2023 (post-2020). We find a significant (∼ 15 %) decrease in cloud condensation nuclei concentrations post-2020, which resulted in a decrease in cloud droplet number (N d ) and an increase in effective radius (r e ) of marine boundary layer clouds. However, cloud liquid water path (LWP) increased post-2020. The increase in LWP offset the increase in r e , resulting in insignificant changes to optical depth. MODIS and CERES data in the vicinity of ENA during these periods produce similar results also with negligible change in albedo and optical depth. Regional cloud occurrence declined in line with changes in the large-scale meteorology. Our results highlight the complex interplay of factors that modulate cloud feedbacks in the Eastern North Atlantic.

Mace, Gerald G. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deriving cloud droplet number concentration from surface-based remote sensors with an emphasis on lidar measurements

Abstract. Given the importance of constraining cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) in low-level clouds, we explore two methods for retrieving Nd from surface-based remote sensing that emphasize the information content in lidar measurements. Because Nd is the zeroth moment of the droplet size distribution (DSD), and all remote sensing approaches respond to DSD moments that are at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the zeroth moment, deriving Nd from remote sensing measurements has significant uncertainty. At minimum, such algorithms require the extrapolation of information from two other measurements that respond to different moments of the DSD. Lidar, for instance, is sensitive to the second moment (cross-sectional area) of the DSD, while other measures from microwave sensors respond to higher-order moments. We develop methods using a simple lidar forward model that demonstrates that the depth to the maximum in lidar-attenuated backscatter (Rmax⁡) is strongly sensitive to Nd when some measure of the liquid water content vertical profile is given or assumed. Knowledge of Rmax⁡ to within 5 m can constrain Nd to within several tens of percent. However, operational lidar networks provide vertical resolutions of > 15 m, making a direct calculation of Nd from Rmax⁡ very uncertain. Therefore, we develop a Bayesian optimal estimation algorithm that brings additional information to the inversion such as lidar-derived extinction and radar reflectivity near the cloud top. This statistical approach provides reasonable characterizations of Nd and effective radius (re) to within approximately a factor of 2 and 30 %, respectively. By comparing surface-derived cloud properties with MODIS satellite and aircraft data collected during the MARCUS and CAPRICORN II campaigns, we demonstrate the utility of the methodology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A coupled ground heat flux–surface energy balance model of evaporation using thermal remote sensing observations

Abstract. One of the major undetermined problems in evaporation (ET) retrieval using thermal infrared remote sensing is the lack of a physically based ground heat flux (G) model and its integration within the surface energy balance (SEB) equation. Here, we present a novel approach based on coupling a thermal inertia (TI)-based mechanistic G model with an analytical surface energy balance model, Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC, version STIC1.2). The coupled model is named STIC-TI. The model is driven by noon–night (13:30 and 01:30 local time) land surface temperature, surface albedo, and a vegetation index from MODIS Aqua in conjunction with a clear-sky net radiation sub-model and ancillary meteorological information. SEB flux estimates from STIC-TI were evaluated with respect to the in situ fluxes from eddy covariance measurements in diverse ecosystems of contrasting aridity in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Sensitivity analysis revealed substantial sensitivity of STIC-TI-derived fluxes due to the land surface temperature uncertainty. An evaluation of noontime G (Gi) estimates showed 12 %–21 % error across six flux tower sites, and a comparison between STIC-TI versus empirical G models also revealed the substantially better performance of the former. While the instantaneous noontime net radiation (RNi) and latent heat flux (LEi) were overestimated (15 % and 25 %), sensible heat flux (Hi) was underestimated (22 %). Overestimation (underestimation) of LEi (Hi) was associated with the overestimation of net available energy (RNi−Gi) and use of unclosed surface energy balance flux measurements in LEi (Hi) validation. The mean percent deviations in Gi and Hi estimates were found to be strongly correlated with satellite day–night view angle difference in parabolic and linear pattern, and a relatively weak correlation was found between day–night view angle difference versus LEi deviation. Findings from this parameter-sparse coupled G–ET model can make a valuable contribution to mapping and monitoring the spatiotemporal variability of ecosystem water stress and evaporation using noon–night thermal infrared observations from future Earth observation satellite missions such as TRISHNA, LSTM, and SBG.

Bhattacharya, Bimal K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecosystem leaf area, gross primary production, and evapotranspiration responses to wildfire in the Columbia River basin

Wildfires impact vegetation mortality and productivity and are increasing in intensity, frequency, and spatial area in the western United States. The rates of vegetation recovery after fires play a major role in the reestablishment of biomass and ecosystem functioning (e.g., structure, resilience, and productivity), but such recovery rates are poorly understood. Here we use remotely sensed data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify the resistance and resilience of leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET) to 138 wildfires of various burn severity across the Columbia River basin (CRB) of the Pacific Northwest in 2015. Increasing burn severity caused lower resistance and resilience for all three variables. Resistance and resilience are highest in grasslands, intermediate in savanna, and lowest in needleleaf evergreen forests, consistent with the adaptation of these vegetation types to fire. LAI has consistently lower resistance and resilience than GPP and ET, which is consistent with physical and physiological mechanisms that compensate for reduced LAI. Resilience is influenced by precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and burn severity across all three vegetation types; however, burn severity plays a more minor role in grasslands. Increasing wildfire severity will reduce the resistance and resilience and lengthen the recovery time of vegetation structure and fluxes with climate change, with significant consequences for the provision of ecosystem functioning and implications for model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cutting out the middleman: calibrating and validating a dynamic vegetation model (ED2-PROSPECT5) using remotely sensed surface reflectance

Canopy radiative transfer is the primary mechanism by which models relate vegetation composition and state to the surface energy balance, which is important to light- and temperature-sensitive plant processes as well as understanding land–atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, certain parameters (e.g., specific leaf area, SLA) that have an outsized influence on vegetation model behavior can be constrained by observations of shortwave reflectance, thus reducing model predictive uncertainty. Importantly, calibrating against radiative transfer outputs allows models to directly use remote sensing reflectance products without relying on highly derived products (such as MODIS leaf area index) whose assumptions may be incompatible with the target vegetation model and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we created the EDR model by coupling the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT-5) and a simple soil reflectance model to predict full-range, high-spectral-resolution surface reflectance that is dependent on the underlying ED2 model state. We then calibrated this model against estimates of hemispherical reflectance (corrected for directional effects) from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration significantly reduced uncertainty in model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an open-source regional data assimilation system in PEcAn v. 1.7.2: application to carbon cycle reanalysis across the contiguous US using SIPNET

Abstract. The ability to monitor, understand, and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle requires the capacity to robustly and coherently synthesize multiple streams of information that each provide partial information about different pools and fluxes. In this study, we introduce a new terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system, built on the PEcAn model–data eco-informatics system, and its application for the development of a proof-of-concept carbon “reanalysis” product that harmonizes carbon pools (leaf, wood, soil) and fluxes (GPP, Ra, Rh, NEE) across the contiguous United States from 1986–2019. We first calibrated this system against plant trait and flux tower net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using a novel emulated hierarchical Bayesian approach. Next, we extended the Tobit–Wishart ensemble filter (TWEnF) state data assimilation (SDA) framework, a generalization of the common ensemble Kalman filter which accounts for censored data and provides a fully Bayesian estimate of model process error, to a regional-scale system with a calibrated localization. Combined with additional workflows for propagating parameter, initial condition, and driver uncertainty, this represents the most complete and robust uncertainty accounting available for terrestrial carbon models. Our initial reanalysis was run on an irregular grid of ∼ 500 points selected using a stratified sampling method to efficiently capture environmental heterogeneity. Remotely sensed observations of aboveground biomass (Landsat LandTrendr) and leaf area index (LAI) (MODIS MOD15) were sequentially assimilated into the SIPNET model. Reanalysis soil carbon, which was indirectly constrained based on modeled covariances, showed general agreement with SoilGrids, an independent soil carbon data product. Reanalysis NEE, which was constrained based on posterior ensemble weights, also showed good agreement with eddy flux tower NEE and reduced root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the calibrated forecast. Ultimately, PEcAn's new open-source regional data assimilation framework provides a scalable workflow for harmonizing multiple data constraints and providing a uniform synthetic platform for carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) as well as accelerating terrestrial carbon cycle research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

BESS-STAIR: a framework to estimate daily, 30m, and all-weather crop evapotranspiration using multi-source satellite data for the US Corn Belt

Abstract. With increasing crop water demands and drought threats, mapping andmonitoring of cropland evapotranspiration (ET) at high spatial and temporalresolutions become increasingly critical for water management andsustainability. However, estimating ET from satellites for precise waterresource management is still challenging due to the limitations in bothexisting ET models and satellite input data. Specifically, the process of ETis complex and difficult to model, and existing satellite remote-sensing datacould not fulfill high resolutions in both space and time. To address theabove two issues, this study presents a new high spatiotemporal resolution ETmapping framework, i.e., BESS-STAIR, which integrates a satellite-drivenwater–carbon–energy coupled biophysical model, BESS (Breathing Earth SystemSimulator), with a generic and fully automated fusion algorithm, STAIR(SaTallite dAta IntegRation). In this framework, STAIR provides daily 30'mmultispectral surface reflectance by fusing Landsat and MODIS satellite datato derive a fine-resolution leaf area index and visible/near-infrared albedo,all of which, along with coarse-resolution meteorological and CO 2 data, are used to drive BESS to estimate gap-free 30 m resolution daily ET.We applied BESS-STAIR from 2000 through 2017 in six areas across the US CornBelt and validated BESS-STAIR ET estimations using flux-tower measurementsover 12 sites (85 site years). Results showed that BESS-STAIR daily ETachieved an overall R2=0.75, with root mean square error RMSE=0.93 mm d -1 and relative error RE =27.9 % when benchmarkedwith the flux measurements. In addition, BESS-STAIR ET estimations capturedthe spatial patterns, seasonal cycles, and interannual dynamics well indifferent sub-regions. The high performance of the BESS-STAIR frameworkprimarily resulted from (1) the implementation of coupled constraints onwater, carbon, and energy in BESS, (2) high-quality daily 30 m data from theSTAIR fusion algorithm, and (3) BESS's applicability under all-skyconditions. BESS-STAIR is calibration-free and has great potentials to be areliable tool for water resource management and precision agricultureapplications for the US Corn Belt and even worldwide given the globalcoverage of its input data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗