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At least 127 records · Page 7

Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

Barlow, Jonathan S.↗

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected by the Interplanetary Network

We present the results of a search for gravitational waves associated with 223 gamma ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) in 2005-2010 during LIGO's fifth and sixth science runs and Virgo's first, second, and third science runs. The IPN satellites provide accurate times of the bursts and sky localizations that vary significantly from degree scale to hundreds of square degrees. We search for both a well-modeled binary coalescence signal, the favored progenitor model for short GRBs, and for generic, unmodeled gravitational wave bursts. Both searches use the event time and sky localization to improve the gravitational wave search sensitivity as compared to corresponding all-time, all-sky searches. We find no evidence of a gravitational wave signal associated with any of the IPN GRBs in the sample, nor do we find evidence for a population of weak gravitational wave signals associated with the GRBs. For all IPN-detected GRBs, for which a sufficient duration of quality gravitational wave data are available, we place lower bounds on the distance to the source in accordance with an optimistic assumption of gravitational wave emission energy of 10(exp−2) solar mass c(exp 2) at 150 Hz, and find a median of 13 Mpc. For the 27 short-hard GRBs we place 90% confidence exclusion distances to two source models: a binary neutron star coalescence, with a median distance of 12 Mpc, or the coalescence of a neutron star and black hole, with a median distance of 22 Mpc. Finally, we combine this search with previously published results to provide a population statement for GRB searches in first-generation LIGO and Virgo gravitational wave detectors and a resulting examination of prospects for the advanced gravitational wave detectors.

gravitational wave detectors↗

Halpha Emitting Galaxies at Z ~ 0.6 in the Deep and Wide Narrow-Band Survey

We present new measurements of the Hα luminosity function (LF) and star formation rate (SFR) volume density for galaxies at z∼0.62 in the COSMOS field. Our results are part of the Deep And Wide Narrow-band Survey (DAWN), a unique infrared imaging program with large areal coverage (∼1.1 deg2 over five fields) and sensitivity (9.9 x 10(exp -18) erg cm(exp -2) s(exp -1) at 5σ). The present sample, based on a single DAWN field, contains 116 Hα emission line candidates at z∼0.62, 25% of which have spectroscopic confirmations. These candidates have been selected through the comparison of narrow and broad-band images in the infrared and through matching with existing catalogs in the COSMOS field. The dust-corrected LF is well described by a Schechter function with L* = 10 (exp 42.64 +/- 0.92) erg s (exp −1), Phi* = 10 (exp -3.320.93)Mpc(exp −3), L*Phi* = L 10(exp 39.40) 0.15 erg s(exp −1)Mpc(exp −3), and α=−1.75+/-0.09. From this LF, we calculate a SFR density of ρSFR=10(exp −1.37+/-0.08)solar mass yr(exp −1)Mpc(exp −3). We expect an additional cosmic variance uncertainty of ∼20%. Both the faint end slope and luminosity density that we derive are consistent with prior results at similar redshifts, with reduced uncertainties. We also present an analysis of these Hα emitters' sizes, which shows a direct correlation between the galaxies' sizes and their Hα emission.

Coughlin, Alicia↗

Development of Predictive Models for Advanced Reactor Autonomous Control

Advanced reactor designs including microreactors and small modular reactors will contribute to the clean production of cheap energy, and autonomous control for advanced reactors is an appealing option for reducing cost. However, there is a lack of industry experience applying autonomous control for advanced nuclear reactors. To accelerate the development and industry acceptance of autonomous control software for nuclear reactors, we aim to demonstrate autonomous control of the Purdue University research reactor (PUR-1) using INL-developed model predictive control (MPC) methods. To prepare for this demonstration, data-driven predictive models based on process data collected from PUR-1 have been developed and integrated with MPC and used to control a physics-based model of PUR-1. A data-driven dynamics model and a gated recurrent unit (GRU) network were both trained on process data from PUR-1. The dynamics model was shown to effectively control the reactor model with MPC when provided reactivity as a control variable but failed to control the model through the control rod positions. The GRU network produced more accurate predictions than the dynamics model when evaluated on operational data, and future work will include the evaluation of the GRU network in the controller.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Stochastic Model Predictive Control With Gaussian Wind Direction Preview for Wake Steering

This article addresses the problem of wake steering control for wind farms that explicitly consider the tradeoff between farm-level power generation and yaw duty cycle under variable and uncertain wind conditions. A novel stochastic model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented, which utilizes a stochastic model of the freestream wind field components in a receding horizon framework to compute optimal yaw set points that maximize the expected value of the farm power while constraining the yaw actuation. Different configurations of the algorithm are evaluated using a steady-state wind farm simulator. The proposed stochastic MPC algorithm can plan control actions over a future prediction horizon based on probabilistic estimates of the incoming wind magnitude and direction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Safe Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active Distribution System Model Predictive Control with EVs and DERs

The temporal and spatial mismatch between PV generation and electric vehicle (EV) charging and discharging may cause voltage violations in active distribution networks. Despite the widespread use of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in power system optimization and control, it lacks guarantees on constraint satisfaction during both training and deployment. This paper proposes a Lagrangian-based safe DRL approach for model predictive control (MPC) of active distribution systems with large-scale integration of PVs, EVs, and energy storage systems (ESSs). A Transformer-LSTM time-series model is proposed to forecast EV charging demand, which is then formulated as a constraint to ensure charging requirements are met. Using this prediction, a Lagrangian-based safe soft actor-critic (SAC) framework is developed for real-time control in a three-phase unbalanced distribution system, enforcing voltage safety constraints while optimizing the cumulative net reward. By integrating the forecasting model with multi-period constraints, the proposed framework jointly coordinates PV systems, EV charging and discharging, and ESS scheduling within the MPC horizon. Numerical experiments on a modified IEEE 123-bus system with real-world data show that, under a high PV penetration scenario, the proposed method increases the net reward by 30.74% and reduces average voltage violations from 0.0011 p.u. to 0.0002 p.u. compared with standard SAC. Compared with the optimal power flow (OPF) approach, it achieves similar voltage security while yielding lower line losses. It also maintains real-time control capability, reducing operation latency to 53.21 ms per 15-minute control interval. The proposed method remains effective under varying PV/EV penetrations and load conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Combining Generative Modeling and Advanced Control for Building Scenario Generation

Buildings make up a large portion of energy consumption in the U.S. today. Understanding their energy consumption patterns can improve their efficiency, but requires detailed models that rely on incomplete or unknown information. Previous work has shown that artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to predict missing information and even suggest upgrades to improve building efficiency. However, building upgrades may require undesirable upfront costs. Oppositely, advanced control could improve building efficiency with negligible upfront cost. To explore the tradeoffs between these two approaches, in this work we propose a workflow to compute optimal temperature setpoint schedules to minimize energy consumption and operational cost. Results show that modifying the temperature setpoints in a building using model predictive control (MPC) can effectively reduce its energy consumption and operational cost. This optimal operation cannot fully meet a desired goal. However, we show that by considering MPC in addition to component upgrades, a desired goal can be met with significantly less upfront costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine learning modeling and model predictive control of a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

Closed-circuit reverse osmosis (CCRO) offers a flexible and energy-efficient alternative to conventional reverse osmosis by operating in a semi-batch mode that recycles brine, enabling higher recovery rates and reduced specific energy consumption (SEC). However, developing accurate, system-level dynamic models for CCRO remains challenging due to its nonlinear, multi-phase operation and sensitivity to variable feed water conditions. Traditional modeling approaches, such as NARMAX (nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs), often struggle to generalize across varying inlet feed concentrations, necessitating frequent parameter re-estimation and limiting their utility for real-time control applications. To address these limitations, we developed a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model trained on an extensive experimental data set from a CCRO pilot plant. The model accepts three inputs, feed flow rate, recirculation flow rate, and initial feed conductivity, and predicts three key outputs: reject conductivity, feed pump power draw, and recirculation pump power draw. We validated the LSTM model against experimental data, demonstrating its ability to distinguish between different feed conductivities and adapt to variable flow rates. Subsequently, we incorporated the LSTM model within a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) scheme and conducted closed-loop simulations to optimize the integrated SEC (iSEC). In conclusion, the results project up to a 6% reduction in iSEC by using MPC to optimize performance over the entire experiment duration, without requiring any random excitation for data collection or parameter re-estimation.

Desalination↗

A bi-level advanced control framework for large-scale control of buildings with system-level impact

Increased electricity consumption combined with new forms of generation is testing the reliability of our grid infrastructure. This work describes a method to improve the reliability of the grid through large-scale advanced building control. This paper develops a bi-level distributed control framework to shift the load of 153 buildings to achieve a system-level objective of tracking a power reference signal. This bi-level control is based on the previously-developed ANPV-MPC, a predictive controller that uses a Bayesian neural network to generate an accurate control model and adapt to changing conditions over time. By shifting the building electricity demand to better match the available power, the grid system supplying the buildings is more reliable as evidenced by the analysis of node voltages across an IEEE 13-bus distribution system. The proposed bi-level control framework tracks the system-level power reference with enough accuracy to regulate node voltages across the IEEE 13-bus distribution system within ANSI limits of ±5%. Additionally, the adaptive nature of ANPV-MPC allows each building across the system to adapt to changing conditions, further amplifying the system-level reliability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Machine learning-enhanced hybrid modeling approach for better identification of a building thermal network model and improved prediction

The gray-box modeling approach, which uses a semi-physical thermal network model, has been widely used in building prediction applications, such as model predictive control (MPC). However, unmeasured disturbances, such as occupants, lighting, and in/exfiltration loads, make it challenging to apply this approach to practical buildings. In this word, we propose a hybrid modeling approach that integrates the gray-box model with a model for unmeasured disturbance. After reviewing several system identification approaches, we systematically designed the unmeasured disturbance model with a model selection process based on statistical tests to make it robust. We generated data based on the building model calibrated by real operational data and then trained the hybrid model for two different weather conditions. The hybrid model approach demonstrates an RMSE reduction of approximately 0.2–0.9 °C and 0.3–2 °C on 1-day ahead temperature prediction compared to the Conventional approach for mild (Berkeley, CA) and cold (Chicago, IL) climates, respectively. In addition, this approach was applied to experimental data obtained from the laboratory building to be used for the MPC application, showing superior prediction performances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

MHONGOOSE: A MeerKAT nearby galaxy H I survey

The MHONGOOSE (MeerKAT H IObservations of Nearby Galactic Objects: Observing Southern Emitters) survey maps the distribution and kinematics of the neutral atomic hydrogen (H I) gas in and around 30 nearby star-forming spiral and dwarf galaxies to extremely low H Icolumn densities. The H Icolumn density sensitivity (3σover 16 km s −1 ) ranges from ∼5 × 10 17 cm −2 at 90″ resolution to ∼4 × 10 19 cm −2 at the highest resolution of 7″. The H Imass sensitivity (3σover 50 km s −1 ) is ∼5.5 × 10 5 M ⊙ at a distance of 10 Mpc (the median distance of the sample galaxies). The velocity resolution of the data is 1.4 km s −1 . One of the main science goals of the survey is the detection of cold accreting gas in the outskirts of the sample galaxies. The sample was selected to cover a range in H Imasses from 10 7 M ⊙ to almost 10 11 M ⊙ in order to optimally sample possible accretion scenarios and environments. The distance to the sample galaxies ranges from 3 to 23 Mpc. In this paper, we present the sample selection, survey design, and observation and reduction procedures. We compared the integrated H Ifluxes based on the MeerKAT data with those derived from single-dish measurement and find good agreement, indicating that our MeerKAT observations are recovering all flux. We present H Imoment maps of the entire sample based on the first ten percent of the survey data, and find that a comparison of the zeroth- and second-moment values shows a clear separation in the physical properties of the H Ibetween areas with star formation and areas without related to the formation of a cold neutral medium. Finally, we give an overview of the H I-detected companion and satellite galaxies in the 30 fields, five of which have not previously been cataloged. We find a clear relation between the number of companion galaxies and the mass of the main target galaxy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

ForestFlow: predicting the Lyman-α forest clustering from linear to nonlinear scales

On large scales, the Lyman-α forest provides insights into the expansion history of the Universe, while on small scales, it imposes strict constraints on the growth history, the nature of dark matter, and the sum of neutrino masses. This work introduces ForestFlow, a novel framework that bridges the gap between large- and small-scale analyses, which have traditionally relied on distinct modeling approaches. Using conditional normalizing flows, ForestFlow predicts the two Lyman-α linear biases (b δ and b η ) and six parameters describing small-scale deviations of the three-dimensional flux power spectrum (P 3D ) from linear theory as a function of cosmology and intergalactic medium physics. These are then combined with a Boltzmann solver to make consistent predictions, from arbitrarily large scales down to the nonlinear regime, for P 3D and any other statistics derived from it. Trained on a suite of 30 fixed-and-paired cosmological hydrodynamical simulations spanning redshifts from z = 2 to 4.5, ForestFlow achieves 3 and 1.5% precision in describing P 3D and the one-dimensional flux power spectrum (P 1D ) from linear scales to k = 5 Mpc −1 and k ∥ = 4 Mpc −1 , respectively. Thanks to its conditional parameterization, ForestFlow shows similar performance for ionization histories and two ΛCDM model extensions – massive neutrinos and curvature – even though none of these are included in the training set. This framework will enable full-scale cosmological analyses of Lyman-α forest measurements from the DESI survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The clustering of Lyman Alpha Emitting galaxies at 𝗓=2–3

Here, we measure the clustering of Lyman Alpha Emitting galaxies (LAEs) selected from the One-hundred-square-degree DECam Imaging in Narrowbands (ODIN) survey, with spectroscopic follow-up from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We use DESI spectroscopy to optimize our selection and to constrain the interloper fraction and redshift distribution of our narrow-band selected sources. We select samples of 4000 LAEs at z = 2.45 and 3.1 in 9 sq. deg. centered on the COSMOS field with median Lyα fluxes of ≈ 10 -16 erg s -1 cm -2 . Covariances and cosmological inferences are obtained from a series of mock catalogs built upon high-resolution N-body simulations that match the footprint, number density, redshift distribution and observed clustering of the sample. We find that both samples have a correlation length of r 0 = 3.0 ± 0.2 h -1 Mpc. Within our fiducial cosmology these correspond to 3D number densities of ≈ 10 -3 h 3 Mpc -3 and, from our mock catalogs, biases of 1.7 and 2.0 at z= 2.45 and 3.1, respectively. We discuss the implications of these measurements for the use of LAEs as large-scale structure tracers for high-redshift cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DESI 2024 IV: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the Lyman alpha forest

We present the measurement of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) from the Lyman-α(Lyα) forest of high-redshift quasars with the first-year dataset of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Our analysis uses over 420 000 Lyα forest spectra and their correlation with the spatial distribution of more than 700 000 quasars. An essential facet of this work is the development of a new analysis methodology on a blinded dataset. We conducted rigorous tests using synthetic data to ensure the reliability of our methodology and findings before unblinding. Additionally, we conducted multiple data splits to assess the consistency of the results and scrutinized various analysis approaches to confirm their robustness. For a given value of the sound horizon (r d ), we measure the expansion at z eff = 2.33 with 2% precision, H(z eff ) = (239.2 ± 4.8) (147.09 Mpc /r d ) km/s/Mpc. Similarly, we present a 2.4% measurement of the transverse comoving distance to the same redshift, DM(z eff ) = (5.84 ± 0.14) (r d /147.09 Mpc) Gpc. Together with other DESI BAO measurements at lower redshifts, these results are used in a companion paper to constrain cosmological parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of systematic redshift errors on the cross-correlation of the Lyman-α forest with quasars at small scales using DESI Early Data

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will measure millions of quasar spectra by the end of its 5 year survey. Quasar redshift errors impact the shape of the Lyman-α forest correlation functions, which can affect cosmological analyses and therefore cosmological interpretations. Here, using data from the DESI Early Data Release and the first two months of the main survey, we measure the systematic redshift error from an offset in the cross-correlation of the Lyman-α forest with quasars. We find evidence for a redshift dependent bias causing redshifts to be underestimated with increasing redshift, stemming from improper modeling of the Lyman-α optical depth in the templates used for redshift estimation. New templates were derived for the DESI Year 1 quasar sample at z > 1.6 and we found the redshift dependent bias, Δr ∥ , increased from -1.94 ± 0.15 h -1 Mpc to -0.08 ± 0.04 h -1 Mpc (-205 ± 15 km s -1 to -9.0 ± 4.0 km s -1 ). These new templates will be used to provide redshifts for the DESI Year 1 quasar sample.

Lyman alpha forest↗

DESI 2024 VI: cosmological constraints from the measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations

We present cosmological results from the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in galaxy, quasar and Lyman-α forest tracers from the first year of observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), to be released in the DESI Data Release 1. DESI BAO provide robust measurements of the transverse comoving distance and Hubble rate, or their combination, relative to the sound horizon, in seven redshift bins from over 6 million extragalactic objects in the redshift range 0.1 < z < 4.2. To mitigate confirmation bias, a blind analysis was implemented to measure the BAO scales. DESI BAO data alone are consistent with the standard flat ΛCDM cosmological model with a matter density Ω m =0.295±0.015. Paired with a baryon density prior from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and the robustly measured acoustic angular scale from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), DESI requires H 0 =(68.52±0.62) km s -1 Mpc -1 . In conjunction with CMB anisotropies from Planck and CMB lensing data from Planck and ACT, we find Ω m =0.307± 0.005 and H 0 =(67.97±0.38) km s -1 Mpc -1 . Extending the baseline model with a constant dark energy equation of state parameter w, DESI BAO alone requirew=-0.99 +0.15 -0.13 . In models with a time-varying dark energy equation of state parametrised by w 0 and w a , combinations of DESI with CMB or with type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) individually prefer w 0 > -1 and w a < 0. This preference is 2.6σ for the DESI+CMB combination, and persists or grows when SN Ia are added in, giving results discrepant with the ΛCDM model at the 2.5σ, 3.5σ or 3.9σ levels for the addition of the Pantheon+, Union3, or DES-SN5YR supernova datasets respectively. For the flat ΛCDM model with the sum of neutrino mass ∑ m ν free, combining the DESI and CMB data yields an upper limit ∑ m ν < 0.072 (0.113) eV at 95% confidence for a ∑ m ν > 0 (∑ m ν > 0.059) eV prior. These neutrino-mass constraints are substantially relaxed if the background dynamics are allowed to deviate from flat ΛCDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Frequentist cosmological constraints from full-shape clustering measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set {σ 8 , H 0 , Ω m , w 0 , w a } using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the w 0 w a CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following 1σ frequentist confidence intervals for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM): σ 8 = 0.863 +0.048 -0.040 , H 0 = 68.96 +0.81 -0.80 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.3034 ± 0.0110 (σ 8 = 0.782 +0.060 -0.036 , H 0 = 63.7 +4.2 -2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.378 +0.024 -0.047 , w 0 = -0.16 +0.10 -0.50 , w a = -3.0 +1.7 ), corresponding to 0.8σ, 0.3σ, 0.7σ (2.1σ, 4.1σ, 6.5σ, 6.3σ, 6.6σ) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM) respectively.

Bayesian reasoning↗

Calibrating the absolute magnitude of type Ia supernovae in nearby galaxies using [O II ] and implications for H 0

The present state of cosmology is facing a crisis where there is a fundamental disagreement in measurements of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$), with significant tension between the early and late Universe methods. Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are important to measuring $H_{0}$ through the astronomical distance ladder. However, there remains potential to better standardize SN Ia light curves by using known dependencies on host galaxy properties after the standard light curve width and colour corrections have been applied to the peak SN Ia luminosities. To explore this, we use the 5-yr photometrically identified SNe Ia sample obtained by the Dark Energy Survey, along with host galaxy spectra obtained by the Australian Dark Energy Survey. Using host galaxy spectroscopy, we find a significant trend with the equivalent width (EW) of the [O II ] $\lambda \lambda$ 3727, 29 doublet, a proxy for specific star formation rate, and Hubble residuals. We find that the correlation with [O II ] EW is a powerful alternative to the commonly used mass step after initial light-curve corrections. Applying this [O II ] EW correction to 20 SNe Ia in calibrator galaxies observed with WiFeS, we examined the impact on SN Ia absolute magnitudes and $H_{0}$. Our [O II ] EW corrections result in $H_{0}$ values ranging between 73.04 and 73.51 $km$ $s^{-1} \, Mpc^{-1}$, with a combined statistical and systematic uncertainty of $\sim 1.31$ $km$ $s^{-1} \, Mpc^{-1}$. However, even with this additional correction, the impact of host galaxy properties in standardizing SNe Ia appears limited in reducing the current tension ($\sim 5\sigma$) with the cosmic microwave background result for $H_{0}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗