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NASA NTRS1988

How climate evolved on the terrestrial planets

It is argued that the difference in the climates of Venus, earth, and Mars is due largely to differences in their ability to cycle CO2 between the crust and atmosphere. It is suggested that the earth has always had a moderate climate primarily because its cycling mechanism increases the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere when the surface of the planet cools and reduces the amount when the ground temperature rises. Mars is now frozen because it has lost the ability to cycle the gas back into its atmosphere, and Venus is a hothouse because it has no way of removing CO2 from its atmosphere.

Kasting, James F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Dynamics of planetary atmospheres

The overall goal is to illuminate the mechanisms that control weather and climate on the Earth and other planets. Each planet presents its own puzzling behavior - the stability of jets and vortices in Jupiter's otherwise turbulent atmosphere, the superrotation of the Venus atmosphere, the interplay of dust, polar volatiles, and climate change in Mars, the supersonic meteorology of Io, and the counterintuitive equator-to-pole temperature gradients on the outer planets. The data sets are generally those obtained from spacecraft - cloud-tracked winds, radiometrically inferred temperatures, and the results of in situ observations where appropriate. The approach includes both data analysis and modeling, ranging from analytic modeling to time-dependent numerical modeling of atmospheric dynamics. The latter approach involves the use of supercomputers such as the San Diego Cray. Progress is generally made when a model with a small number of free parameters either fits a data set that has a large number of independent observations or applies to several planets at once.

Ingersoll, Andrew P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. The primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-110 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase I aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase I aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars' middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. ne primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-110 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase 1 aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase 1 aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars' middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. The primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-1 10 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase 1 aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase I aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Evolution of the atmospheres of the terrestrial planets

It is pointed out that, even though the atmospheres of the earth, Venus, and Mars have distinctly different climates, it appears likely that all three planets were created under similar conditions; the planets are different only in terms of mass and incident solar radiation. This paper considers some of the difficulties in assessing the nature of the primordial climates and in extrapolating these climates to the present day. In particular, questions concerning clouds, water, and CO2 on the earth and on Mars are addressed.

Chamberlain, Joseph W.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Terrestrial Planets Comparative Climatology (TPCC) mission concept

The authors and co-signers of the Terrestrial Planets Comparative Climatology (TPCC) mission concept white paper advocate that planetary science in the next decade would greatly benefit from comparatively studying the fundamental behavior of the atmospheres of Venus and Mars, contemporaneously and with the same instrumentation, to capture atmospheric response to the same solar forcing, and with a minimum of instrument-related variability. NASA’s vision is to understand the effects of the Sun on the solar system and the potential for life elsewhere (Obj,1.1 of [1]). This vision directly motivates the study of terrestrial climate histories and evolution, with the ultimate goal of understanding what factors allow the emergence and sustainability of life/biosphere. It is widely accepted that Venus, Mars, and Earth were formed at the same time and in the same neighborhood of the solar nebula [2,3], and had water—a necessary ingredient for life. In spite of strong overlap in the atmospheric composition of these planets, their current climatic states are vastly different. While Earth retains water, both Mars and Venus’ surfaces are now dry. The manner in which these terrestrial bodies evolved, and whether Mars or Venus currently hosts or previously hosted life, are fundamental mysteries in planetary science. As such, the TPCC mission concept has been developed.The TPCC guiding science goals are:(1) to understand Venus’ evolutionary history compared to Mars and Earth, and (2) to elucidate the driving forces and mechanisms of global circulation at Mars and Venus. These goals address the science question: Why have Mars’ and Venus’ climates evolved so differently from each other and from Earth’s? Furthermore, a greater depth of understanding our own solar system, enables us to understand the variability and likelihood of habitable conditions within extra-solar planetary systems.We suggest a mission architecture and payload that would determine the noble gas content and isotopic ratios, including the D/H ratio, at Venus with sufficient accuracy to identify the timeline of Venus’ climatic evolution for comparison with Mars. In addition, our concept would systematically “follow the energy” at Mars and Venus, in order to establish how solar forcing on the two atmospheric systems leads to the current balance of dynamical, chemical, and radiative processes responsible for each planet’s climatic state.This would include acquisition of the first global atmospheric wind profiles on either planet;global, continuous profiles of aerosols, gases, and water vapor at vertical resolutions higher than any previous mission;and regular UV and IR night glow observations tracking global circulation on both planets.To increase the fidelity of the planned planetary comparisons, the TPCC mission concept baseline (estimated to be New Frontiers Class)would send a single spacecraft to visit one planet and then the next, allowing measurements of each planet with the same instrumentation within similar parts of the solar cycle. The concept uses commercial solar-electric propulsion (SEP; e.g., [4])similar to the Psyche mission [5], plus a probesent deep into Venus’ atmosphere(e.g., LLISSE concept; [6]).Alternatively, “twin” spacecraft (with added probe to the Venus craft),developed at the same time,and launched close in time,would increase the overlap in operation periods and should also be studied. Either architecture is a timely alternative to independently developed and launched spacecraft payloads, which ultimately are more costly and difficult to inter-calibrate.

Leslie K. Tamppari↗
NASA NTRS1993

Early Mars was wet but not warm: Erosion, fluvial features, liquid water habitats, and life below freezing

There is considerable evidence that Mars had liquid water early in its history and possibly at recurrent interval. It has generally been assumed that this implied that the climate was warmer as a result of a thicker CO2 atmosphere than at the present. However, recent models suggest that Mars may have had a thick atmosphere but may not have experienced mean annual temperatures above freezing. In this paper we report on models of liquid water formation and maintenance under temperatures well below freezing. Our studies are based on work in the north and south polar regions of Earth. Our results suggest that early Mars did have a thick atmosphere but precipitation and hence erosion was rare. Transient liquid water, formed under temperature extremes and maintained under thick ice covers, could account for the observed fluvial features. The main difference between the present climate and the early climate was that the total surface pressure was well above the triple point of water.

Mckay, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The South Residual CO2 Cap on Mars: Investigations with a Mars Global Climate Model

The CO2 cycle is one of the three controlling climate cycles on Mars. One aspect of the CO2 cycle that is not yet fully understood is the existence of a residual CO2 ice cap that is offset from the south pole. Previous investigations suggest that the atmosphere could control the placement of the south residual cap (e.g., Colaprete et al., 2005). These investigations show that topographically forced stationary eddies in the south during southern hemisphere winter produce colder atmospheric temperatures and increased CO2 snowfall over the hemisphere where the residual cap resides. Since precipitated CO2 ice produces higher surface albedos than directly deposited CO2 ice, it is plausible that CO2 snowfall resulting from the zonally asymmetric atmospheric circulation produces surface ice albedos high enough to maintain a residual cap only in one hemisphere. Our current work builds on these initial investigations with a version of the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model (GCM) that includes a sophisticated CO2 cloud microphysical scheme. Processes of cloud nucleation, growth, sedimentation, and radiative effects are accounted for. Simulated results thus far agree well with the Colaprete et al. study—the zonally asymmetric nature of the atmospheric circulation produces enhanced snowfall over the residual cap hemisphere throughout much of the winter season. However, the predicted snowfall patterns vary significantly with season throughout the cap growth and recession phases. We will present a detailed analysis of the seasonal evolution of the predicted atmospheric circulation and snowfall patterns to more fully evaluate the hypothesis that the atmosphere controls the placement of the south residual cap.

climate cycles on Mars↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Mars Micro-Meteorological Station Mission

The Mars Micro-Meteorological Station (Micro-Met) Mission is designed to provide the global surface pressure measurements required to help characterize the martian general circulation and climate system. Measurements of surface pressure distributed both spatially and temporally, coupled with simultaneous measurements from orbit, will enable the determination of the general circulation, structure and driving factors of the martian atmosphere as well as the seasonal CO2 cycle. The influence of these atmospheric factors will in turn provide insight into the overall martian climate system. With the science objective defined as the long term (at least one Mars year) globally distributed measurement of surface atmospheric pressure, a straightforward, near term and low cost network mission has been designed. The Micro-Met mission utilizes a unique silicon micro-machined pressure sensor coupled with a robust and lightweight surface station to deliver to Mars 16 Micro-Met stations via a Med-Lite launch vehicle. The battery powered Micro-Met surface stations are designed to autonomously measure, record and transmit the science data via a UHF relay satellite. Entry, descent and landing is provided by an aeroshell with a new lightweight ceramic thermal protection system, a parachute and an impact absorbing structure. The robust lander is capable of surviving the landing loads imposed by the high altitude landing sites required in a global network. By trading the ability to make many measurements at a single site for the ability to make a single measurement at several sites, the Micro-Met mission design satisfies the requirement for truly global meteorological science.

Merrihew, Steven C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Climate Change on Mars

Today, Mars is cold and dry. With a 7 mbar mean surface pressure, its thin predominantly CO2 atmosphere is not capable of raising global mean surface temperatures significantly above its 217K effective radiating temperature, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is equivalent to a global ocean only 10 microns deep. Has Mars always been in such a deep freeze? There are several lines of evidence that suggest it has not. First, there are the valley networks which are found throughout the heavily cratered terrains. These features are old (3.8 Gyr) and appear to require liquid water to form. A warm climate early in Mars' history has often been invoked to explain them, but the precise conditions required to achieve this have yet to be determined. Second, some of the features seen in orbiter images of the surface have been interpreted in terms of glacial activity associated with an active hydrological cycle some several billion years ago. This interpretation is controversial as it requires the release of enormous quantities of ground water and enough greenhouse warming to raise temperatures to the melting point. Finally, there are the layered terrains that characterize both polar regions. These terrains are geologically young (10 Myr) and are believed to have formed by the slow and steady deposition of dust and water ice from the atmosphere. The individual layers result from the modulation of the deposition rate which is driven by changes in Mars' orbital parameters. The ongoing research into each of these areas of Martian climate change will be reviewed, and similarities to the Earth's climate system will be noted.

Haberle, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Low-Level Jets and the Convergence of Mars Data Assimilation Algorithms

Data assimilation is an increasingly popular technique in Mars atmospheric science, but its effect on the mean states of the underlying atmosphere models has not been thoroughly examined. The robustness of results to the choice of model and assimilation algorithm also warrants further study. We investigate these issues using two Mars general circulation models (MGCMs), with particular emphasis on zonal wind and temperature fields. When temperature retrievals from the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) are assimilated into the U.K.-Laboratoire de M ́et ́eorologie Dynamique (UK-LMD) MGCM to create the Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA) reanalysis, low-level zonal jets in the winter northern hemisphere shift equatorward and weaken relative to a free-running control simulation from the same MGCM. The Ensemble Mars Atmosphere Reanalysis System (EMARS) reanalysis, which is also based on TES temperature retrievals, also shows jet weakening (but less if any shifting) relative to a control simulation performed with the underlying Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) MGCM. Examining higher levels of the atmosphere, monthly mean three-dimensional temperature and zonal wind fields are in generally better agreement between the two reanalyses than between the two control simulations. In conjunction with information about the MGCMs’ physical parametrizations, intercomparisons between the various reanalyses and control simulations suggest that overall the EMARS control run is plausibly less biased (relative to the true state of the Martian atmosphere) than the MACDA control run. Implications for future observational studies are discussed. Plain Language Summary An increasingly popular way to study Martian weather and climate is to combine atmospheric temperature observations with a computer model (specifically, a global climate model). The process of combining model and observations is called “data assimilation”, and the resulting merged data set is called a “reanalysis”. One advantage of reanalyses is that they include variables (such as wind) that are not directly observed. For scientific and practical applications we want these variables to be reasonably accurate— however, it is not clear how well data assimilation algorithms compute them. Our study investigates this issue using two Mars reanalyses and two model simulations that do not assimilate temperature data. We focus on slowly-varying atmospheric phenomena (timescales from 10 Mars days to a season). Assimilating temperature data into two different global climate models changes the strength and/or spatial pattern of east-west winds at low altitudes. Furthermore, monthly mean three-dimensional temperature and east-west wind fields agree better between reanalyses than between non-assimilating model simulations. This suggests that the data assimilation process is basically successful. One non-assimilating model simulation has less realistic representations of atmospheric physical processes than the other—we argue that this plausibly gives it larger biases relative to the true state of the atmosphere.

Todd A Mooring↗
NASA NTRS2013

Mars-GRAM 2010: Additions and Resulting Improvements

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM has been utilized during previous aerobraking operations in the atmosphere of Mars. Mars-GRAM has also been used in the prediction and validation of Mars Pathfinder hypersonic aerodynamics, the aerothermodynamic and entry dynamics studies for Mars Polar Lander, the landing site selection process for the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), the Mars Aerocapture System Study (MASS) as well as the Aerocapture Technology Assessment Group (TAG). Most recently, Mars-GRAM 2010 was used to develop the onboard atmospheric density estimator that is part of the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Plan. The most recent release of Mars-GRAM 2010 contains several changes including an update to Fortran 90/95 and the addition of adjustment factors. Following the completion of a comparison analysis between Mars-GRAM, Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), as well as Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Odyssey (ODY), and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) aerobraking density data, adjustment factors were added to Mars-GRAM 2010 that alter the input data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) and the University of Michigan Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) for the mapping year 0 user-controlled dust case. The addition of adjustment factors resolved the issue of previous versions of Mars-GRAM being less than realistic when used for sensitivity studies for mapping year 0 and large optical depth values, such as tau equal to 3. Mars-GRAM was evaluated at locations and times of TES limb observations and adjustment factors were determined. For altitudes above 80 km and below 135 km, Mars-GRAM (MTGCM) densities were compared to aerobraking densities measured by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Odyssey (ODY), and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to determine the adjustment factors. The adjustment factors generated by this process had to satisfy the gas law as well as the hydrostatic relation and are expressed as a function of height (z), Latitude (Lat) and areocentric solar longitude (Ls). The greatest adjustments are made at large optical depths such as tau greater than 1. The addition of the adjustment factors has led to better correspondence to TES Limb data from 0-60 km altitude as well as better agreement with MGS, ODY and MRO data at approximately 90-130 km altitude. Improved Mars-GRAM atmospheric simulations for various locations, times and dust conditions on Mars will be presented at the workshop session. The latest results validating Mars-GRAM 2010 versus Mars Climate Sounder data will also be presented. Mars-GRAM 2010 updates have resulted in improved atmospheric simulations which will be very important when beginning systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for future aerocapture, aerobraking or landed missions to Mars.

Justh, Hilary L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Ultraviolet Photooxidation of Smectite-Bound Fe(II) and Implications for the Origin of Martian Nontronites

Clay minerals detected with orbital and in situ instruments in ancient Martian terrains constrain Mars' climate and aqueous alteration history. Early in its history, Mars experienced an atmospheric redox change and iron-bearing clay minerals may preserve the effects of that transition. Ferrous smectites, the thermodynamically predicted product of chemical weathering of basalts under anoxic conditions, may have undergone oxidation by exposure to chemical oxidants in the atmosphere or regolith, or by direct photooxidation at the surface. To assess these potential oxidation pathways, ferrous trioctahedral smectites of varying initial iron content were synthesized and subjected to oxidation by ultraviolet (UV) irradiation. Experimental UV irradiation under an anoxic atmosphere equivalent to approximately 7 years of flux on the Martian surface caused partial oxidation of smectite-bound Fe (Fe3+/ΣFe = 16–18%) and octahedral sheet contraction. Metal-OH vibrational bands in visible/near infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectra of oxidized smectites changed in band depth and asymmetry with higher iron content. X-ray diffraction patterns of UV irradiated samples indicate the formation of a mixed di- and trioctahedral smectite or a secondary nontronite phase, possibly on the surfaces of higher iron content smectites. These experiments suggest that UV irradiation is able to oxidize structurally bound iron in smectites without the presence of other chemical oxidants. Photooxidation may have influenced the mineralogy, both syndepositionally and postdepositionally, of Martian alteration assemblages formed near the surface and this process needs not be limited to one part of their formation history. Plain Language Summary: Martian mineral assemblages observed with orbiters and rover instruments allow us to understand the planet's past climate and aqueous activity. Hydrated minerals that contain Fe(II) are of particular interest as they would have been affected by the early atmosphere becoming more oxidizing overtime, changing the structural iron into Fe(III). In this study, we synthesized Fe(II) smectites with varying iron content and irradiated them with an ultraviolet (UV) light source to test whether they could be photooxidized. Iron in the smectite minerals was incompletely oxidized by UV radiation after being exposed for the equivalent of approximately 7 years of exposure on the early Mars surface. The smectites with higher iron content showed more changes with photooxidation in their visible/near infrared spectra as well as in their X-ray diffraction patterns, two datasets collected by instruments on currently active Martian missions. These results suggest that UV photooxidation is a plausible contributor to the mineralogy and redox state of clay mineral assemblages observed at the Martian surface.

V. B. Rivera Banuchi↗
NASA NTRS1979

Climatic change on the terrestrial planets

Observational data related to climatic change on Venus, earth and Mars are reviewed. The channel features on Mars suggest an early to intermediate epoch of warmer and wetter climate, while the layered polar deposits imply more recent periodic variations in climate. A more reducing atmosphere, which would have produced an enhanced greenhouse effect, may have been responsible for warmer periods in the early history of Mars and earth. Detailed calculations relating atmospheric pressure and composition to the temperature state of Mars are presented. The possibility of a runaway greenhouse effect on Venus resulting in the emplacement of volatiles entirely in the atmosphere is also examined. Periodic variations in orbital eccentricity and axial obliquity may have contributed to alternating glacial and interglacial periods on earth. Mechanisms accounting for the laminated terrain of Mars, and the influence of Martian tectonic distortions on the planet's climate also receive attention.

Pollack, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Brief Summary of the Geomorphic Evidence for an Active Surface Hydrologic Cycle in Mars' Past

Because Mars is just over half the Earth's diameter (about 6800 km), it does not exhibit global tectonism on a scale comparable to Earth and Venus. But because it is still a large body compared to Mercury and the moon, it has had an atmosphere and climate over the history of the solar system. This is why Mars has been able to retain surfaces produced both through volcanic and climatic processes that are intermediate in age between volcanic surfaces on the moon and Mercury and both types of surfaces on Venus and Earth. For the purposes of this discussion, this has important implications about the origins and evolution of topographic depressions that potentially may have contained lakes. Tectonism is probably the most important process on Earth for producing closed depressions on the continents, and is clearly responsible for maintenance of the ocean basins through geologic time. This is probably also true for depressions in the highland terrains and lowland plains of Venus. On Mars, however, tectonism appears limited to relatively small amounts of regional extension, compression, and vertical motion largely due to crustal loading of the two major volcanic provinces - Tharsis and Elysium Impact craters and large impact basins (including all or parts of the northern plains) are clearly more important sites for potential lake basins on Mars, though they were likely more important on Earth, and Venus as well, during the period of heavy meteorite bombardment throughout the solar system prior to 3.5 Ga. Comparisons of the relative importance of other formative processes on Mars with those on Earth are less obvious, and some may be quite speculative, since our understanding of the early Martian environment is still rather limited. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Parker, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Ice-Covered Lakes Hypothesis in Gale Crater: Implications for the Early Hesperian Climate

Recent geological discoveries from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), including stream and lake sedimentary deposits, provide evidence that Gale crater may have intermittently hosted a fluviol-acustine environment during the Hesperian, with individual lakes lasting for a period of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Estimates of the CO2 content of the atmosphere at the time the Gale sediments formed are far less than needed by any climate model to warm early Mars, given the low solar energy input available at Mars 3.5 Gya. We have therefore explored the possibility that the lakes in Gale during the Hesperian were perennially covered with ice using the Antarctic lakes as analogs.

CO2 content of the atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS1993

The effect of polar caps on obliquity

Rubincam has shown that the Martian obliquity is dependent on the seasonal polar caps. In particular, Rubincam analytically derived this dependence and showed that the change in obliquity is directly proportional to the seasonal polar cap mass. Rubincam concludes that seasonal friction does not appear to have changed Mars' climate significantly. Using a computer model for the evolution of the Martian atmosphere, Haberle et al. have made a convincing case for the possibility of huge polar caps, about 10 times the mass of the current polar caps, that exist for a significant fraction of the planet's history. Since Rubincam showed that the effect of seasonal friction on obliquity is directly proportional to polar cap mass, a scenario with a ten-fold increase in polar cap mass over a significant fraction of the planet's history would result in a secular increase in Mars' obliquity of perhaps 10 degrees. Hence, the Rubincam conclusion of an insignificant contribution to Mars' climate by seasonal friction may be incorrect. Furthermore, if seasonal friction is an important consideration in the obliquity of Mars, this would significantly alter the predictions of past obliquity.

Lindner, B. L.↗