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Results for “Maximum Likelihood Estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Maximum-Likelihood Parameter-Estimation Algorithm

Efficient version of maximum-likelihood algorithm devised for calculating normal-mode frequencies and damping parameters of vibrating system from experimental data where both process noise and measurement noise present. Method applicable in vibration analysis of such complicated structures as vehicles, aircraft, and spacecraft. New algorithm simplification of existing maximum-likelihood formulation using Kalman filter that allows for both process and measurement noise.

Eldred, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Comparative Study of Co-Channel Interference Suppression Techniques

We describe three methods of combatting co-channel interference (CCI): a cross-coupled phase-locked loop (CCPLL); a phase-tracking circuit (PTC), and joint Viterbi estimation based on the maximum likelihood principle. In the case of co-channel FM-modulated voice signals, the CCPLL and PTC methods typically outperform the maximum likelihood estimators when the modulation parameters are dissimilar. However, as the modulation parameters become identical, joint Viterbi estimation provides for a more robust estimate of the co-channel signals and does not suffer as much from "signal switching" which especially plagues the CCPLL approach. Good performance for the PTC requires both dissimilar modulation parameters and a priori knowledge of the co-channel signal amplitudes. The CCPLL and joint Viterbi estimators, on the other hand, incorporate accurate amplitude estimates. In addition, application of the joint Viterbi algorithm to demodulating co-channel digital (BPSK) signals in a multipath environment is also discussed. It is shown in this case that if the interference is sufficiently small, a single trellis model is most effective in demodulating the co-channel signals.

Hamkins, Jon↗
NASA NTRS2012

Sensitivity Analysis for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO2 Retrieval

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a thermal infrared sensor able to retrieve the daily atmospheric state globally for clear as well as partially cloudy field-of-views. The AIRS spectrometer has 2378 channels sensing from 15.4 micrometers to 3.7 micrometers, of which a small subset in the 15 micrometers region has been selected, to date, for CO2 retrieval. To improve upon the current retrieval method, we extended the retrieval calculations to include a prior estimate component and developed a channel ranking system to optimize the channels and number of channels used. The channel ranking system uses a mathematical formalism to rapidly process and assess the retrieval potential of large numbers of channels. Implementing this system, we identifed a larger optimized subset of AIRS channels that can decrease retrieval errors and minimize the overall sensitivity to other iridescent contributors, such as water vapor, ozone, and atmospheric temperature. This methodology selects channels globally by accounting for the latitudinal, longitudinal, and seasonal dependencies of the subset. The new methodology increases accuracy in AIRS CO2 as well as other retrievals and enables the extension of retrieved CO2 vertical profiles to altitudes ranging from the lower troposphere to upper stratosphere. The extended retrieval method for CO2 vertical profile estimation using a maximum-likelihood estimation method. We use model data to demonstrate the beneficial impact of the extended retrieval method using the new channel ranking system on CO2 retrieval.

sensitivity analysis↗
NASA NTRS1987

Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Likelihood estimation for distributed parameter models for NASA Mini-MAST truss

A maximum likelihood estimation for distributed parameter models of large flexible structures was formulated. Distributed parameter models involve far fewer unknown parameters than independent modal characteristics or finite element models. The closed form solutions for the partial differential equations with corresponding boundary conditions were derived. The closed-form expressions of sensitivity functions led to highly efficient algorithms for analyzing ground or on-orbit test results. For an illustration of this approach, experimental data of the NASA Mini-MAST truss was used. The estimations of modal properties involve lateral bending modes and torsional modes. The results show that distributed parameter models are promising in the parameter estimation of large flexible structures.

Shen, Ji-Yao↗
NASA NTRS1992

Likelihood estimation for distributed parameter models of large beam-like structures

A maximum likelihood estimation for distributed parameter models of large flexible structures was formulated. Distributed parameter models involve far fewer unknown parameters than independent modal characteristics or finite element models. The closed form solutions for the partial differential equations with corresponding boundary conditions were derived. The closed-form expressions of sensitivity functions led to highly efficient algorithms for analyzing ground or on-orbit test results. For an illustration of this approach, experimental data of the NASA Mini-Mast truss was used. The estimations of modal properties involve lateral bending modes and torsional modes. The results show that distributed parameter models are promising in the parameter estimation of large flexible structures.

Shen, J.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Signal-to-noise ratio estimation in digital computer simulation of lowpass and bandpass systems with applications to analog and digital communications, volume 3

Techniques are developed to estimate power gain, delay, signal-to-noise ratio, and mean square error in digital computer simulations of lowpass and bandpass systems. The techniques are applied to analog and digital communications. The signal-to-noise ratio estimates are shown to be maximum likelihood estimates in additive white Gaussian noise. The methods are seen to be especially useful for digital communication systems where the mapping from the signal-to-noise ratio to the error probability can be obtained. Simulation results show the techniques developed to be accurate and quite versatile in evaluating the performance of many systems through digital computer simulation.

Tranter, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Establishment of a center of excellence for applied mathematical and statistical research

The state of the art was assessed with regards to efforts in support of the crop production estimation problem and alternative generic proportion estimation techniques were investigated. Topics covered include modeling the greeness profile (Badhwarmos model), parameter estimation using mixture models such as CLASSY, and minimum distance estimation as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. Approaches to the problem of obtaining proportion estimates when the underlying distributions are asymmetric are examined including the properties of Weibull distribution.

Woodward, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Identification of integrated airframe-propulsion effects on an F-15 aircraft for application to drag minimization

The application of an adaptive real-time measurement-based performance optimization technique is being explored for a future flight research program. The key technical challenge of the approach is parameter identification, which uses a perturbation-search technique to identify changes in performance caused by forced oscillations of the controls. The controls on the NASA F-15 highly integrated digital electronic control (HIDEC) aircraft were perturbed using inlet cowl rotation steps at various subsonic and supersonic flight conditions to determine the effect on aircraft performance. The feasibility of the perturbation-search technique for identifying integrated airframe-propulsion system performance effects was successfully shown through flight experiments and postflight data analysis. Aircraft response and control data were analyzed postflight to identify gradients and to determine the minimum drag point. Changes in longitudinal acceleration as small as 0.004 g were measured, and absolute resolution was estimated to be 0.002 g or approximately 50 lbf of drag. Two techniques for identifying performance gradients were compared: a least-squares estimation algorithm and a modified maximum likelihood estimator algorithm. A complementary filter algorithm was used with the least squares estimator.

Schkolnik, Gerald S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Identification of integrated airframe: Propulsion effects on an F-15 aircraft for application to drag minimization

The application of an adaptive real-time measurement-based performance optimization technique is being explored for a future flight research program. The key technical challenge of the approach is parameter identification, which uses a perturbation-search technique to identify changes in performance caused by forced oscillations of the controls. The controls on the NASA F-15 highly integrated digital electronic control (HIDEC) aircraft were perturbed using inlet cowl rotation steps at various subsonic and supersonic flight conditions to determine the effect on aircraft performance. The feasibility of the perturbation-search technique for identifying integrated airframe-propulsion system performance effects was successfully shown through flight experiments and postflight data analysis. Aircraft response and control data were analyzed postflight to identify gradients and to determine the minimum drag point. Changes in longitudinal acceleration as small as 0.004 g were measured, and absolute resolution was estimated to be 0.002 g or approximately 50 lbf of drag. Two techniques for identifying performance gradients were compared: a least-squares estimation algorithm and a modified maximum likelihood estimator algorithm. A complementary filter algorithm was used with the least squares estimator.

Schkolnik, Gerard S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Estimation and classification by sigmoids based on mutual information

An estimate of the probability density function of a random vector is obtained by maximizing the mutual information between the input and the output of a feedforward network of sigmoidal units with respect to the input weights. Classification problems can be solved by selecting the class associated with the maximal estimated density. Newton's s method, applied to an estimated density, yields a recursive maximum likelihood estimator, consisting of a single internal layer of sigmoids, for a random variable or a random sequence. Applications to the diamond classification and to the prediction of a sun-spot process are demonstrated.

Baram, Yoram↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disaggregating Customer-Level Behind-the-Meter PV Generation Using Smart Meter Data and Solar Exemplars

Customer-level rooftop photovoltaic (PV) has been widely integrated into distribution systems. In most cases, PVs are installed behind-the-meter (BTM), and only the net demand is recorded. Therefore, the native demand and PV generation are unknown to utilities. Separating native demand and solar generation from net demand is critical for improving grid-edge observability. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed for disaggregating customer-level BTM PV generation using low-resolution but widely available hourly smart meter data. The proposed approach exploits the strong correlation between monthly nocturnal and diurnal native demands and the high similarity among PV generation profiles. First, a joint probability density function (PDF) of monthly nocturnal and diurnal native demands is constructed for customers without PVs, using Gaussian mixture modeling (GMM). Deviation from the constructed PDF is utilized to probabilistically assess the monthly solar generation of customers with PVs. Then, to identify hourly BTM solar generation for these customers, their estimated monthly solar generation is decomposed into an hourly timescale; to do this, we have proposed a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based technique that utilizes hourly typical solar exemplars. Leveraging the strong monthly native demand correlation and high PV generation similarity enhances our approach's robustness against the volatility of customers’ hourly load and enables highly-accurate disaggregation. Furthermore, the proposed approach has been verified using real native demand and PV generation data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1981

Software models: A Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in the Jelenski-Moranda software reliability model

Maximum likelihood estimation procedures for the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability model often give misleading answers. A reparameterization and a Bayesian analysis eliminate some of the problems incurred by MLE methods and often give better predictions on sets of real and simulated data. Practical difficulties in estimating the initial number of errors N and the failure rate of each error phi by the method of maximum likelihood are: N, the MLE of N, is occasionally infinite (i.e., the routines for calculating N and phi do not converge). It is shown that N is finite sub i only if the regression line of the interevent times t sub i vs. i has positive slope. A serious problem is that often N approximates n, the sample size, and sometimes N = n. Thus the MLE predicts that the program is perfect even when it is far from being so. Only when almost all failures have been removed can N and phi be trusted near the end of debugging.

Littlewood, B.↗
NASA NTRS1972

System identification computational considerations.

System identification methods may be accurately characterized as inverse computational problems. Three approaches to the computational problem are considered. Equation error methods are based on regression analysis techniques. Attention is given to the maximum conditional likelihood estimate and the maximum unconditional likelihood (Bayesian) estimate. Gradient dependent algorithms for solving the minimization problems are discussed, taking into account Gaussian methods, quadratic model methods, and the homogeneous function model method of Jacobson and Oksman. Some advanced methods are also examined.

Bowles, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Digital adaptive control laws for VTOL aircraft

Honeywell has designed a digital self-adaptive flight control system for flight test in the VALT Research Aircraft (a modified CH-47). The final design resulted from a comparison of two different adaptive concepts: one based on explicit parameter estimates from a real-time maximum likelihood estimation algorithm and the other based on an implicit model reference adaptive system. The two designs are compared on the basis of performance and complexity.

Hartmann, G. L.↗