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At least 127 records · Page 7

Idealized Offshore Low‐Level Jets for Turbine Structural Impact Considerations

Low-level jets (LLJs) describe conditions in which the wind speed reaches a local maximum with respect to altitude near the surface; they have been observed intermittently in the US mid-Atlantic offshore environment. LLJs pose unique operating conditions for future wind turbines operating in the region, such as negative shear and locally strong veer, but they are not typically considered in existing turbine standards. This work builds upon recent research that explains the formation and evolution of the US mid-Atlantic LLJs through a simple analytical governing equation. We generate several LLJ inflow conditions with varying jet characteristics based on this analytical model and create monotonically sheared (MS) analogues with matched veer to assess the impacts of the LLJ on turbine performance and loading. Using aeroelastic simulations with these inflow conditions on the International Energy Agency 15-MW reference turbine, we find that the LLJ leads to a greater range of tower-top pitching and yawing moments, which could contribute to larger accumulated structural fatigue in components compared to MS inflow. These preliminary results demonstrate a path toward a unified set of test cases for low-level wind maxima that can inform the International Electrotechnical Commission standards related to offshore wind turbine design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Statistical models of summer rainshowers derived from fine-scale radar observations

A statistical modeling of rain cell characteristics is presented; the modeling is based on high-resolution radar measurements of the cell structure. The analysis of the fine-scale three-dimensional structure of summer rainshowers in the mid-Atlantic region leads to statistical descriptions of the rain cells in terms of a variety of physical cell parameters. Core reflectivity profiles, contour area, and altitude extent of the cells have been determined along with the frequency of occurrence for various storm classes and categories. The statistical descriptions of the rain cells for the mid-Atlantic region were compared to descriptions for other areas, and the similarities and differences are described. Simplified models of rain cells based on the statistical descriptions are developed for the different rain categories as a function of frequency of occurrence.

Konrad, T. G.↗

Empirical orthogonal function analysis of cloud-containing coastal zone color scanner images of northeastern North American coastal waters

Empirical-orthogonal-function (EOF) analyses were carried out on 36 images of the Mid-Atlantic Bight and the Gulf of Maine, obtained by the CZCS aboard Nimbus 7 for the time period from February 28 through July 9, 1979, with the purpose of determining pigment concentrations in coastal waters. The EOF procedure was modified so as to include images with significant portions of data missing due to cloud obstruction, making it possible to estimate pigment values in areas beneath clouds. The results of image analyses explained observed variances in pigment concentrations and showed a south-to-north pattern corresponding to an April Mid-Atlantic Bight bloom and a June bloom over Nantucket Shoals and Platts Bank.

Eslinger, David L.↗

Identifying priority ecosystem services in tidal wetland restoration

Classification systems can be an important tool for identifying and quantifying the importance of relationships, assessing spatial patterns in a standardized way, and forecasting alternative decision scenarios to characterize the potential benefits (e.g., ecosystem services) from ecosystem restoration that improve human health and well-being. We present a top-down approach that systematically leverages ecosystem services classification systems to identify potential services relevant for ecosystem restoration decisions. We demonstrate this approach using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Ecosystem Service Classification System Plus (NESCS Plus) to identify those ecosystem services that are relevant to restoration of tidal wetlands. We selected tidal wetland management documents from federal agencies, state agencies, wetland conservation organizations, and land stewards across three regions of the continental United States (northern Gulf of Mexico, Mid-Atlantic, and Pacific Northwest) to examine regional and organizational differences in identified potential benefits of tidal wetland restoration activities and the potential user groups who may benefit. We used an automated document analysis to quantify the frequencies at which different wetland types were mentioned in the management documents along with their associated beneficiary groups and the ecological end products (EEPs) those beneficiaries care about, as defined by NESCS Plus. Results showed that a top combination across all three regions, all four organizations, and all four tidal wetland types was the EEP naturalness paired with the beneficiary people who care (existence). Overall, the Mid-Atlantic region and the land steward organizations mentioned ecosystem services more than the others, and EEPs were mentioned in combination with tidal wetlands as a high-level, more general category than the other more specific tidal wetland types. Certain regional and organizations differences were statistically significant. Those results may be useful in identifying ecosystem services-related goals for tidal wetland restoration. This approach for identifying and comparing ecosystem service priorities is broadly transferrable to other ecosystems or decision-making contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of fractional crystallization and cumulus processes on mineral composition trends of some lunar and terrestrial rock series

A plot of Mg of mafic minerals versus An of plagioclase in cumulate rocks from various lunar and terrestrial rock series shows each series to have a distinct curvilinear trend. The slopes of these trends vary from nearly vertical in the case of lunar anorthosites and Mg-norites to nearly horizontal in the case of gabbros from the mid-Atlantic ridge. Calculations based upon known major element partitioning between mafic minerals, plagioclase and subalkaline basaltic liquids indicate that fractional crystallization coupled with cotectic accumulation of mafic minerals and plagioclase will produce mineral composition trends on the Mg versus An diagram with slopes greater than 1 for cases where An is approximately greater than Mg. Furthermore, fractional crystallization of basaltic magmas with alkali concentrations approaching zero will produce near vertical Mg versus An trends. Therefore, the steep slopes of the lunar rock series are consistent with relatively simple fractionation processes. The relatively flat slope of mineral compositions from gabbros collected from the mid-Atlantic ridge at 26 deg N is inconsistent with simple fractionation processes, and calculations show that periodic refilling of a fractionating magma chamber with picritic magma cannot simply explain this flat slope either.

Longhi, J.↗

Potential Weakening of the June 2012 North American Derecho Under Future Warming Conditions

Derechos produce widespread and long-lived damaging wind, causing severe life and property loss. Here, this study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming. Convection-permitting regional model simulations of the derecho as observed are compared with simulations under a pseudo global warming scenario of the future environments by the end of the 21st century following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5). The control simulations can well reproduce the observed derecho features, including storm evolution, surface wind, and precipitation, except for a 2-hour delay relative to observations. Compared to the control simulations, the derecho shrinks and decays earlier in the future environments, with much less destructive impacts on the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. The shrinkage of the derecho is attributed to the lower relative humidity on both sides of the derecho propagation path under global warming, which suppresses updraft and strengthens downdraft, impeding the spatial extent of the derecho. The premature decay is due to the intensification of an isolated deep convection (IDC) event that develops ahead of the derecho. The meridional gradient of future warming strengthens the synoptic environments, enhancing convergence in a corridor of higher instability that facilitates intensification and continuous development of the IDC event. By consuming most of the energy and moisture on the derecho propagation path, the IDC hinders the derecho development in the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. Focusing on a single derecho event, this study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux from Space: With Application to Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

This study uses a neural network model trained with in situ data, combined with satellite data and hydrodynamic model products, to compute the daily estuarine export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the mouths of Chesapeake Bay (CB) and Delaware Bay (DB) from 2007 to 2011. Both bays show large flux variability with highest fluxes in spring and lowest in fall as well as interannual flux variability (0.18 and 0.27 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2010 for CB; 0.04 and 0.09 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2011 for DB). Based on previous estimates of total organic carbon (TOCexp) exported by all Mid-Atlantic Bight estuaries (1.2 Tg C/year), the DOC export (CB + DB) of 0.3 Tg C/year estimated here corresponds to 25% of the TOCexp. Spatial and temporal covariations of velocity and DOC concentration provide contributions to the flux, with larger spatial influence. Differences in the discharge of fresh water into the bays (74 billion m(exp3)/year for CB and 21 billion m9exp3)/year for DB) and their geomorphologies are major drivers of the differences in DOC fluxes for these two systems. Terrestrial DOC inputs are similar to the export of DOC at the bay mouths at annual and longer time scales but diverge significantly at shorter time scales (days to months). Future efforts will expand to the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine, and its major rivers and estuaries, in combination with coupled terrestrial-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical models that include effects of climate change, such as warming and CO2 increase.

Signorini, Sergio↗

Tracking Climate Effects on Plant-Pollinator Interaction Phenology with Satellites and Honey Bee Hives

Background/Question/Methods: The complexity of plant-pollinator interactions, the large number of species involved, and the lack of species response functions present challenges to understanding how these critical interactions may be impacted by climate and land cover change on large scales. Given the importance of this interaction for terrestrial ecosystems, it is desirable to develop new approaches. We monitor the daily weight change of honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies to record the phenology of the Honey Bee Nectar Flow (HBNF) in a volunteer network (honeybeenet.gsfc.nasa.gov). The records document the successful interaction of a generalist pollinator with a variety of plant resources. We extract useful HBNF phenology metrics for three seasons. Sites currently exist in 35 states/provinces in North America, with a concentration in the Mid-Atlantic region. HBNF metrics are compared to standard phenology metrics derived from remotely sensed vegetation indices from NASA's MODIS sensor and published results from NOAA's A VHRR. At any given time the percentage of plants producing nectar is usually a sma11 fraction of the total satellite sensor signal. We are interested in determining how well the 'bulk' satellite vegetation parameters relate to the phenology of the HBNF, and how it varies spatially on landscape to continental scales. Results/Conclusions: We found the median and peak seasonal HBNF dates to be robust, with variation between replicate scale hives of only a few days. We developed quality assessment protocols to identify abnormal colony artifacts. Temporally, the peak and median of the HBNF in the Mid-Atlantic show a significant advance of 0.58 d/y beginning about 1970, very similar to that observed by the A VHRR since 1982 (0.57 d/y). Spatially, the HBNF metrics are highly correlated with elevation and winter minimum temperature distribution, and exhibit significant but regionally coherent inter-annual variation. The relationship between median of the spring HBNF with the "Green-up" metric from the 500 meter MODIS NDVI phenology product, for sites throughout the Eastern US 2000-2009, is well described by a single linear fit (r(exp 2) = 0.72). We conclude.that for the tree-dominated areas of the Eastern US at least the spring HBNF can be tracked very well by MODIS phenology. Analysis of other regions and seasons is presently underway but with more limited data. Spatial patterns in the eastern US and management implications will be presented and discussed.

Esaias, Wayne E.↗

MRCI - Final Technical Report

The objective of the Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) project was to implement a collaborative Regional Initiative to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in the Midwest-Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic areas of the United States. This area encompasses a 20-state region with much of the country’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The MRCI project is co-led by Battelle Memorial Institute (Battelle) in Columbus, Ohio, and the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) in Champaign, Illinois, and benefitted from the experience these organizations have acquired over the past 10-plus years leading two Department of Energy (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs): the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP), led by Battelle, and the Midwest Geologic Sequestration Consortium (MGSC), led by the ISGS.

CCS↗

Regional-scale, sector-specific evaluation of global CO2 inversion models using aircraft data from the ACT-America project

We use vertical profiles of airborne measurements of CO2 from frontal cases during the summer 2016 Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) campaign to evaluate the skill of a set of ten global CO2 inversion models participating in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory – 2 (OCO-2) Model Intercomparison Project (MIP). Model errors and biases (model minus observation) were categorized by region (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and South), frontal sector (warm or cold), and transport model (predominantly Tracer Model 5 (TM5) and Goddard Earth Observing System – Chemistry (GEOS-Chem)). Overall, the inversions reproduce the general structures of the observed vertical profiles and the enhanced / depleted low-level CO2 in warm / cold sectors, but tend to underestimate the magnitude of the sector difference in each region. In the Midwest and South warm sectors, inversion biases were about 1 ppm above 1500 m AGL, though model spread (quantified by interquartile range) was often even smaller; below 1500 m AGL, model biases were negative and about -2 ppm near the surface. For the Midwest and South cold sectors, models had +2-3 ppm biases below 1500 m AGL, but with comparable model spread. Uniquely, in the Mid-Atlantic there was a consistent difference between TM5 and GEOS-Chem mole fractions for both sectors up to 3000 m AGL (TM5 lower by 2 ppm), on the order of the observation-relative biases. In the MidAtlantic TM5 inversions had negative biases in warm sectors, while GEOS-Chem inversions had positive biases in cold sectors. Possible reasons for the regional variability are discussed.

Gaudet, Brian J.↗

Assessing Carbon Properties in Coastal Waters with a New Observing System Testbed

Large rainfall events over land can lead to a substantial flux of carbon and nutrients to estuaries and the coastal ocean. In the mid-Atlantic on the east coast of North America (35° - 42° N), these events often happen due to tropical storm activity as well as less predictable anomalously large midlatitude storms or abrupt spring snow melt runoff. Storms can directly impact the coastal carbon cycle via export of carbon from land to sea, while also stimulating phytoplankton production due to the influx of nutrients to the coastal ocean. To assess the impact of high precipitation and river flow events on the coastal carbon cycle, we have integrated multiple observing platforms in an analytical framework to dynamically observe carbon-related properties. The new observing system testbed (NOS-T) allows for an estimate of phytoplankton and organic carbon stocks in the surface ocean, with a goal of providing near real time analytical capability. A case study of high river discharge in the mid-Atlantic in the summer and fall of 2018 and 2021 were used to examine how riverine carbon manifests along the land-estuary-ocean continuum particularly in Chesapeake Bay. Chesapeake Bay was chosen as the study site because of long term monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program and a robust and well-developed regional biogeochemical modeling system, the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System (CBEFS), that is publicly available. There is also new capability in Chesapeake Bay to combine hyperspectral radiometric data from the Aerosol Robotic Network site that is online in 2022 with in-water observations of optical properties. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement IMERG data set was used to establish triggering criteria for storm carbon flux observation. USGS and in-water carbon data were used to establish statistical models to estimate the mass flux of organic carbon into Chesapeake Bay using measured river discharge. The year 2018 was examined as there was record rainfall and near record river flow in the late summer. The CBEFS modeling was compared with in-water estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to assess the model’s ability to capture storm fluxes of carbon to the ecosystem. Multiple satellite platforms were also used to assess how remote sensing using passive Earth orbiting sensors can be used to observe carbon in this complex coastal region. A set of recommendations have been established to improve sensing capability to measure aquatic carbon during storm events. A unique challenge in these dynamic inland waters is how rapidly carbon fluxes can evolve in space and time, with many sources contributing to the water leaving reflectance that satellites can observe. To improve our ability to quantify carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time, a suite of satellite sensors and high-resolution modeling capability is needed, all supplemented by in situ monitoring. Future inclusion of in-water observations that would be deployed when the system reaches triggering criteria, as well as taskable orbital instruments, will improve estimates of ocean carbon properties and provide the ability to calculate major carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time following episodic storm events.

land-ocean continuum↗

Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S.

Future configurations of the power system in the central region of the USA are dependent on relative costs of alternative power generation technologies, energy and environmental policies, and multiple climate-induced stresses. Higher demand in the summer months combined with compounding supply shocks in several power generation technologies can potentially cause a “perfect storm” leading to failure of the power system. Potential future climate stress must be incorporated in investment decisions and energy system planning and operation. We assess how projected future climate impacts on the power system would affect alternative pathways for the electricity sector considering a broad range of generation technologies and changes in demand. We calculate a “potential supply gap” metric for each pathway, system component, and sub-region of the US Heartland due to climate-induced effects on electricity demand and power generation. Potential supply gaps range from 5% in the North Central region under mild changes in climate to 21% in the Lakes-Mid Atlantic region under more severe climate change. We find increases in electricity demand to be more important in determining the size of the potential supply gap than stresses on power generation, while larger shares of renewables in the power system contribute to lower supply gaps. Our results provide a first step toward considering systemic climate impacts that may require changes in managing the grid or on potential additional capacity/reserves that may be needed.

Gurgel, Angelo Costa↗

Surface Ocean pCO2 Seasonality and Sea-Air CO2 Flux Estimates for the North American East Coast

Underway and in situ observations of surface ocean pCO2, combined with satellite data, were used to develop pCO2 regional algorithms to analyze the seasonal and interannual variability of surface ocean pCO2 and sea-air CO2 flux for five physically and biologically distinct regions of the eastern North American continental shelf: the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), the Gulf of Maine (GoM), Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank (NS+GB), and the Scotian Shelf (SS). Temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon variability are the most influential factors driving the seasonality of pCO2. Estimates of the sea-air CO2 flux were derived from the available pCO2 data, as well as from the pCO2 reconstructed by the algorithm. Two different gas exchange parameterizations were used. The SS, GB+NS, MAB, and SAB regions are net sinks of atmospheric CO2 while the GoM is a weak source. The estimates vary depending on the use of surface ocean pCO2 from the data or algorithm, as well as with the use of the two different gas exchange parameterizations. Most of the regional estimates are in general agreement with previous studies when the range of uncertainty and interannual variability are taken into account. According to the algorithm, the average annual uptake of atmospheric CO2 by eastern North American continental shelf waters is found to be between 3.4 and 5.4 Tg C/yr (areal average of 0.7 to 1.0 mol CO2 /sq m/yr) over the period 2003-2010.

interannual variability↗

Remote sensing of smoke, clouds, and radiation using AVIRIS during SCAR experiments

During the past two years, researchers from several institutes joined together to take part in two SCAR experiments. The SCAR-A (Sulfates, Clouds And Radiation - Atlantic) took place in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States in July, 1993. remote sensing data were acquired with the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), the MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS), and a RC-10 mapping camera from an ER-2 aircraft at 20 km. In situ measurements of aerosol and cloud microphysical properties were made with a variety of instruments equipped on the University of Washington's C-131A research aircraft. Ground based measurements of aerosol optical depths and particle size distributions were made using a network of sunphotometers. The main purpose of SCAR-A experiment was to study the optical, physical and chemical properties of sulfate aerosols and their interaction with clouds and radiation. Sulfate particles are believed to affect the energy balance of the earth by directly reflecting solar radiation back to space and by increasing the cloud albedo. The SCAR-C (Smoke, Clouds And Radiation - California) took place on the west coast areas during September - October of 1994. Sets of aircraft and ground-based instruments, similar to those used during SCAR-A, were used during SCAR-C. Remote sensing of fires and smoke from AVIRIS and MAS imagers on the ER-2 aircraft was combined with a complete in situ characterization of the aerosol and trace gases from the C-131A aircraft of the University of Washington and the Cesna aircraft from the U.S. Forest Service. The comprehensive data base acquired during SCAR-A and SCAR-C will contribute to a better understanding of the role of clouds and aerosols in global change studies. The data will also be used to develop satellite remote sensing algorithms from MODIS on the Earth Observing System.

Gao, Bo-Cai↗

A Regional Approach to Offshore Wind Energy Manufacturing in the Central Atlantic: Supply Chain

Growth of the offshore wind industry in the United States is likely to require growth in the nation's manufacturing capacity and additional resources and investments to meet energy project demands. Such growth has the potential to provide positive economic impacts for local communities, workers, and entire states. To realize the benefits of developing a domestic offshore wind supply chain, the states of Maryland, North Carolina and Virginia are working together under the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Regional Transformative Partnership for Offshore Wind Resources (SMART-POWER) regional collaboration to advance the industry, with Delaware as a supporting state. This report is part of the SMART-POWER Workforce and Supply Chain Analysis study, funded by the National Offshore Wind Research and Development Consortium. The study assesses challenges and opportunities for the four Central Atlantic states to understand key regional strengths and identify supply chain investments that could effectively leverage their resources and provide benefits to both the member states and the offshore wind sector as a whole.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Regional Geology Capstone Report for the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (Volume V)

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The MRCSP regional geology Capstone report summarizes the regional characterization of geologic storage subtasks performed under MRCSP Phase III. The regional characterization work was completed by the state geological surveys of Delaware, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia along with Western Michigan University and Rutgers University. Building on the Phases I and II, the Phase III research was focused on key research topics identified in previous MRCSP efforts: [1] Regional Geologic Cross Sections for Potential Storage and Containment Zones; [2] Appalachian Basin: Enhanced Recovery Opportunities; [3] Michigan Basin: Assessment of Enhanced Oil Recovery Using Carbon Dioxide in Silurian Pinnacle Reefs; [4] Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain and Adjacent Offshore Region: Characterization of Carbon Storage Targets; [5] Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates; [6] Upper Silurian to Middle Devonian Strata of Ohio: Structural Characterization of Potential CO 2 Reservoirs and Adjacent Strata; [7] Triassic Rift Basins: Preliminary Study of Long-Term CO 2 Storage Potential Together, the regional characterization effort developed useful products to support project developers, policy makers and other stakeholders in the MRCSP region seeking to understand where potential storage exists relative to large stationary sources of CO 2 emissions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗