Supporting Carbon Storage Data and Modeling Needs: An Illinois Basin Geomodel
Poster presentation for 2023 NETL Carbon Management Review Meeting
Creason, Christopher↗
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Application and Evaluation of a Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Tamor River Basin, Eastern Himalaya Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Data Assimilation Approach
Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree-day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash-Sutcliffe metric approx. 0.84, annual volume bias <3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002-2006 period is estimated to be 29.7+/-2.9% (which includes 4.2+/-0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3+/-2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000-5500m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9+/-3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9+/-1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree-day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds.
runoff↗
Calibration of Two-dimensional Floodplain Modeling in the Atchafalaya River Basin Using SAR Interferometry
Two-dimensional (2D) satellite imagery has been increasingly employed to improve prediction of floodplain inundation models. However, most focus has been on validation of inundation extent, with little attention on the 2D spatial variations of water elevation and slope. The availability of high resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imagery offers unprecedented opportunity for quantitative validation of surface water heights and slopes derived from 2D hydrodynamic models. In this study, the LISFLOOD-ACC hydrodynamic model is applied to the central Atchafalaya River Basin, Louisiana, during high flows typical of spring floods in the Mississippi Delta region, for the purpose of demonstrating the utility of InSAR in coupled 1D/2D model calibration. Two calibration schemes focusing on Manning s roughness are compared. First, the model is calibrated in terms of water elevations at a single in situ gage during a 62 day simulation period from 1 April 2008 to 1 June 2008. Second, the model is calibrated in terms of water elevation changes calculated from ALOS PALSAR interferometry during 46 days of the image acquisition interval from 16 April 2008 to 1 June 2009. The best-fit models show that the mean absolute errors are 3.8 cm for a single in situ gage calibration and 5.7 cm/46 days for InSAR water level calibration. The optimum values of Manning's roughness coefficients are 0.024/0.10 for the channel/floodplain, respectively, using a single in situ gage, and 0.028/0.10 for channel/floodplain the using SAR. Based on the calibrated water elevation changes, daily storage changes within the size of approx 230 sq km of the model area are also calculated to be of the order of 107 cubic m/day during high water of the modeled period. This study demonstrates the feasibility of SAR interferometry to support 2D hydrodynamic model calibration and as a tool for improved understanding of complex floodplain hydrodynamics
Hahn Chul Jung↗
Subsurface Morphology and Scaling of Lunar Impact Basins
Impact bombardment during the first billion years after the formation of the Moon produced at least several tens of basins. The Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission mapped the gravity field of these impact structures at significantly higher spatial resolution than previous missions, allowing for detailed subsurface and morphological analyses to be made across the entire globe. GRAIL-derived crustal thickness maps were used to define the regions of crustal thinning observed in centers of lunar impact basins, which represents a less unambiguous measure of a basin size than those based on topographic features. The formation of lunar impact basins was modeled numerically by using the iSALE-2D hydrocode, with a large range of impact and target conditions typical for the first billion years of lunar evolution. In the investigated range of impactor and target conditions, the target temperature had the dominant effect on the basin subsurface morphology. Model results were also used to update current impact scaling relationships applicable to the lunar setting (based on assumed target temperature). Our new temperature-dependent impact-scaling relationships provide estimates of impact conditions and transient crater diameters for the majority of impact basins mapped by GRAIL. As the formation of lunar impact basins is associated with the first approximately 700 Myr of the solar system evolution when the impact flux was considerably larger than the present day, our revised impact scaling relationships can aid further analyses and understanding of the extent of impact bombardment on the Moon and terrestrial planets in the early solar system.
Miljkovic, K.↗
Asymmetric Distribution of Lunar Impact Basins Caused by Variations in Target Properties
Maps of crustal thickness derived from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission revealed more large impact basins on the nearside hemisphere of the Moon than on its farside. The enrichment in heat-producing elements and prolonged volcanic activity on the lunar nearside hemisphere indicate that the temperature of the nearside crust and upper mantle was hotter than that of the farside at the time of basin formation. Using the iSALE-2D hydrocode to model impact basin formation, we found that impacts on the hotter nearside would have formed basins up to two times larger than similar impacts on the cooler farside hemisphere. The size distribution of lunar impact basins is thus not representative of the earliest inner Solar system impact bombardment.
Distribution↗
Supplemental Information For: Asymmetric Distribution of Lunar Impact Basins Caused by Variations in Target Properties
Maps of crustal thickness derived from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission revealed more large impact basins on the nearside hemisphere of the Moon than on its farside. The enrichment in heat-producing elements and prolonged volcanic activity on the lunar nearside hemisphere indicate that the temperature of the nearside crust and uppermantle was hotter than that of the farside at the time of basin formation. Using the iSALE-2D hydrocode to model impact basin formation, we found that impacts on the hotter nearside would have formed basins up to two times larger than similar impacts on the cooler farside hemisphere. The size distribution of lunar impact basins is thus not representative of the earliest inner Solar system impact bombardment
Lunar↗
Advancing Diagnostic Model Evaluation to Better Understand Water Shortage Mechanisms in Institutionally Complex River Basins
Abstract Water resources systems models enable valuable inferences on consequential system stressors by representing both the geophysical processes determining the movement of water and the human elements distributing it to its various competing uses. This study contributes a diagnostic evaluation framework that pairs exploratory modeling with global sensitivity analysis to enhance our ability to make inferences on water scarcity vulnerabilities in institutionally complex river basins. Diagnostic evaluation of models representing institutionally complex river basins with many stakeholders poses significant challenges. First, it needs to exploit a large and diverse suite of simulations to capture important human‐natural system interactions as well as institutionally aware behavioral mechanisms. Second, it needs to have performance metrics that are consequential and draw on decision‐relevant model outputs that adequately capture the multisector concerns that emerge from diverse basin stakeholders. We demonstrate the proposed model diagnostic framework by evaluating how potential interactions between changing hydrologic conditions and human demands influence the frequencies and durations of water shortages of varying magnitudes experienced by hundreds of users in a subbasin of the Colorado River. We show that the dominant factors shaping these effects vary both across users and, for an individual user, across percentiles of shortage magnitude. These differences hold even for users sharing diversion locations, demand levels or water right seniority. Our findings underline the importance of detailed institutional representation for such basins, as institutions strongly shape how dominant factors of stakeholder vulnerabilities propagate through the complex network of users.
Hadjimichael, Antonia↗
Comparison and Assessment of Three Advanced Land Surface Models in Simulating Terrestrial Water Storage Components over the United States
In preparation for next generation North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), 3 three advanced land surface models (CLM4.0, Noah-MP, and CLSM-F2.5) were run from 1979 4 to 2014 within the NLDAS-based framework. Monthly total water storage anomaly (TWSA) and 5 its individual water storage components were evaluated against satellite-based and in situ 6 observations, and reference reanalysis products at basin-wide and statewide scales. In general, all 7 three models are able to reasonably capture the monthly and interannual variability and 8 magnitudes for TWSA. However, contributions of the anomalies of individual water 9 components to TWSA are very dependent on the model and basin. A major contributor to the 10 TWSA is the anomaly of total column soil moisture content (SMCA) for CLM4.0 and Noah-MP 11 or groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) for CLSM-F2.5 although other components such as 12 the anomaly of snow water equivalent (SWEA) also play some role. For each individual water 13 storage component, the models are able to capture broad features such as monthly and 14 interannual variability. However, there are large inter-model differences and quantitative 15 uncertainties in this study. Therefore, it should be thought of as a preliminary synthesis and 16 analysis.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
488-1D Ash basin closure cap help modeling-Microdrain® liner option
At the request of Area Completion Engineering and in support of the 488-1D Ash Basin closure, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) performed hydrologic simulations of the revised 488-1D Ash Basin closure cap design using the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model. The revised design substitutes a MicroDrain Liner®—50-mil linear low-density polyethylene geomembrane structurally integrated with 130-mil drainage layer—for the previously planned drainage/barrier system—300-mil geosynthetic drainage layer (GDL), 300-mil geosynthetic clay liner (GCL), and 6-inch common fill soil layer. For a 25-year, 24-hour storm event, HELP model v3.07 was employed to (1) predict the peak maximum daily hydraulic head for the geomembrane layer, and (2) ensure that South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC) requirements for the barrier layer (i.e., ≤ 12 inches hydraulic head on top of a barrier having a saturated hydraulic conductivity ≤ 1.0E-05 cm/s) will not be exceeded. A 25-year, 24-hour storm event at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is 6.1 inches rainfall (Weber 1998). HELP model v3.07 results based upon the new planned cap design suggest that the peak maximum daily hydraulic head on the geomembrane barrier layer will be 0.179 inches for a minimum slope equal to 3%, which is approximately two orders of magnitude below the SCDHEC upper limit of 12 inches.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Modelling soil erosion in a Mediterranean watershed: Comparison between SWAT and AnnAGNPS models
Highlights: • Outputs, input data and time requirements are compared for SWAT and AnnAGNPS. • Models are assessed also in wet and dry seasons. • Most of the basin is under moderate or high risk of erosion. • SWAT and AnnAGNPS are compared with RUSLE2015 and PESERA. In this study, the simulations generated by two of the most widely used hydrological basin-scale models, the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), were compared in a Mediterranean watershed, the Carapelle (Apulia, Southern Italy). Input data requirements, time and efforts needed for input preparation, strength and weakness points of each model, ease of use and limitations were evaluated in order to give information to users. Models were calibrated and validated at monthly time scale for hydrology and sediment load using a four year period of observations (streamflow and suspended sediment concentrations). In the driest year, the specific sediment load measured at the outlet was 0.89 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}, while the simulated values were 0.83 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1} and 1.99 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1} for SWAT and AnnAGNPS, respectively. In the wettest year, the specific measured sediment load was 7.45 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}, and the simulated values were 8.27 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1} and 6.23 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1} for SWAT and AnnAGNPS, respectively. Both models showed from fair to a very good correlation between observed and simulated streamflow and satisfactory for sediment load. Results showed that most of the basin is under moderate (1.4–10 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}) and high-risk erosion (> 10 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}). The sediment yield predicted by the SWAT and AnnAGNPS models were compared with estimates of soil erosion simulated by models for Europe (PESERA and RUSLE2015). The average gross erosion estimated by the RUSLE2015 model (12.5 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}) resulted comparable with the average specific sediment yield estimated by SWAT (8.8 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}) and AnnAGNPS (5.6 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}), while it was found that the average soil erosion estimated by PESERA is lower than the other estimates (1.2 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Availability and Spring Flows: Observations from the Highly Productive Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System
Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System, located in northeastern California, is home to some of the largest first-order springs in the United States. This work assesses the likely effects of projected climate change on spring flow. Four anticipated climate futures (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5, CNRM rcp 8.5) for California, which predict a range of conditions (generally warming and transitioning from snow to rain with variable amounts of total precipitation), are postulated to affect groundwater recharge primarily by changing evapotranspiration. The linkages between climate variables and spring flow are evaluated using a water balance model that represents the physics of evapotranspiration and recharge, the Basin Characterization Model. Three of the four climate scenarios (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5) project that by the year 2100, groundwater recharge (and consequently decreased spring flow) will decrease by 27%, 21%, and 9%, respectively. The fourth scenario (CNRM rcp 8.5) showed an increase in recharge of 32% due to a significant increase in precipitation (27%). Evapotranspiration increases due to a shift in the type of precipitation and a longer growing season. While the likelihood of each scenario is outside the scope of this work, unless total precipitation increases dramatically in the future, increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation will likely result in reduced spring flows, along with warmer water temperatures in downstream habitats.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP) Geological Models, July 7, 2021. Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC) Phase III Data Sets. DOE Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC26-05NT42588.
Three geological models in Petrel (Mark of Schlumberger) and data output from shallow groundwater modeling using TOUGH Codes from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, included under folders: Static_Geologic_Model, Dynamic_Reservoir_Model, Geomechanical_Model, and Groundwater_Model.
3D Geological Model↗
The evolution of impact basins - Cooling, subsidence, and thermal stress
The present study is concerned with an assessment of the contribution of thermal contraction and thermal stress to the topography and tectonics of large lunar impact basins. Exploratory models are developed, giving attention to the temperature structure following basin formation, the subsequent cooling of the basin region, and the resulting thermal displacements and stresses as functions of time. The subsidence and stress at the surface are compared with topography and tectonic features in the comparatively well-preserved Orientale basin. The results of the comparison are used as a basis to derive approximate constraints on the quantity and distribution of heat implanted during the basin-formation process.
Bratt, S. R.↗
Lunar impact basins: New data for the nearside northern high latitudes and eastern limb from the second Galileo flyby
During the December 1992 Galileo Earth/Moon encounter the northern half of the nearside, the eastern limb, and parts of the western farside of the Moon were illuminated and in view, a geometry that was complementary to the first lunar encounter in December, 1990, which obtained images of the western limb and eastern farside. The Galileo Solid State Imaging System (SSI) obtained multispectral images for these regions during the second encounter and color ratio composite images were compiled using combinations of band ratios chosen on the basis of telescopic spectra and laboratory spectra of lunar samples. Ratios of images taken at 0.41 and 0.76 micron are sensitive to changes in the slope in the visible portion of the spectrum, and ratios of 0.99 and 0.76 micron relate to the strength of near-infrared absorptions due to iron-rich mafic minerals (0.76/0.99 ratio) such as olivine and pyroxene. Results of the analyses of the compositional diversity of the crust, maria, and Copernican craters are presented elsewhere. Primary objectives for lunar basin analysis for the second encounter include analysis of: the north polar region and the Humboldtianum basin; the characteristics of the Imbrium basin along its northern border and the symmetry of associated deposits; the origin of light plains north of Mare Frigoris and associated with several other basins; the nature and significance of pre-basin substrate; the utilization of the stereo capability to assess subtle basis structure; the identification of previously unrecognized ancient basins; basin deposits and structure for limb and farside basins; and assessment of evidence for proposed ancient basins. These data and results will be applied to addressing general problems of evaluation of the nature and origin of basin deposits, investigation of mode of ejecta emplacement and ejecta mixing, analysis of the origin of light plains deposits, analysis of basin deposit symmetry/asymmetry, investigation of basin depth of excavation and crustal stratigraphy, and assessment of models for basin formation and evolution. Here we discuss some preliminary results concerning lunar impact basins, their deposits, and prebasin substrates, using the same approaches that we employed for the Orientale and South Pole-Aitken basins using the data from the first encounter.
Head, J. W.↗
Using a New Crustal Thickness Model to Test Previous Candidate Lunar Basins and to Search for New Candidates
A new crustal thickness model was used to test the viability of 110 candidate large lunar basins previously identified using older topographic and crustal thickness data as well as photogeologic data. The new model was also used to search for new candidate lunar basins greater than 300 km in diameter. We eliminated 11 of 27 candidates previously identified in the older crustal thickness model, and found strong evidence for at least 8 new candidates.
Meyer, H. M.↗
Maps, Models and Data from Southeastern Great Basin PFA
This submission includes composite risk segment models in raster format for permeability, heat of the earth, and MT, as well as the final PFA model of geothermal exploration risk in Southwestern Utah, USA. Additionally, this submission has data regarding hydrothermally altered areas, and opal sinter deposits in the study area. All of this information lends to the understanding and exploration for hidden geothermal systems in the area.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Expansion of smallmouth bass distribution and habitat overlap with juvenile Chinook salmon in the Willamette River, Oregon
Abstract Smallmouth bass populations have expanded far beyond their native range and these predatory fish present a pervasive threat to native aquatic species throughout North America. In the western United States, smallmouth bass are now present in river and reservoir habitats where Pacific salmon are found and are considered a potential threat to salmon recovery in many locations. We conducted a study to determine if smallmouth bass are expanding their range in the mainstem Willamette River, Oregon, and developed a model to assess habitat overlap between smallmouth bass and juvenile Chinook salmon. Sampling during 2011–2022 revealed that the distribution of smallmouth bass had expanded throughout that timeframe to encompass the entire mainstem Willamette River, including important rearing habitats for juvenile Chinook salmon. The model predicted that smallmouth bass and juvenile Chinook salmon habitat overlap was substantial, highlighting the need for additional research to evaluate for potential negative impacts to salmon recovery in the basin. The model was also used to evaluate the efficacy of using flow management to reduce interactions between these two species, but the scenarios we examined suggested that this was not a viable option. These results highlight the need for continued research to assess interactions between smallmouth bass and juvenile salmon, and other native species of concern, in the Willamette River Basin. The development of the model is useful for resource managers to understand interactions between these species to prioritize locations for sampling in the future.
White, James S.↗
Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble
Despite recent advances in land surfacemodeling and remote sensing, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the water budget of the Amazon basin based on several state-ofthe- art land surface model (LSM) outputs. Water budget variables (terrestrial water storage TWS, evapotranspiration ET, surface runoff R, and base flow B) are evaluated at the basin scale using both remote sensing and in situ data. Meteorological forcings at a 3-hourly time step and 18 spatial resolution were used to run 14 LSMs. Precipitation datasets that have been rescaled to matchmonthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) andGlobal Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) datasets and the daily Hydrologie du Bassin de l'Amazone (HYBAM) dataset were used to perform three experiments. The Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme was forced with R and B and simulated discharges are compared against observations at 165 gauges. Simulated ET and TWS are compared against FLUXNET and MOD16A2 evapotranspiration datasets andGravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE)TWSestimates in two subcatchments of main tributaries (Madeira and Negro Rivers).At the basin scale, simulated ET ranges from 2.39 to 3.26 mm day(exp -1) and a low spatial correlation between ET and precipitation indicates that evapotranspiration does not depend on water availability over most of the basin. Results also show that other simulated water budget components vary significantly as a function of both the LSM and precipitation dataset, but simulated TWS generally agrees with GRACE estimates at the basin scale. The best water budget simulations resulted from experiments using HYBAM, mostly explained by a denser rainfall gauge network and the rescaling at a finer temporal scale.
GPCP↗