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DOE OSTI2025

Conformal Hierarchical Simulation-Based Inference with Local Validity

Trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty quantification is a long-standing challenge in artificial intelligence. Simulation-based inference (SBI) comprises a broad swath of approaches for estimating latent parameters with uncertainties. Although flexible neural density estimators in SBI can be remark- ably expressive capturing highly structured, high-dimensional posteriors their credible regions can be badly mis-calibrated and are often only accompanied by heuristic coverage checks. We present the first SBI framework that delivers finite-sample local valid coverage guarantees that hold in the neighborhood of each observation. Our framework can couple any off-the-shelf hierarchical SBI engine with a confor- mal Bayesian post-processing step that operates on the posterior predictive density. A kernel-weighted conformity score adapts the conformal quantile to the local geometry of the data, yielding prediction sets that are simultaneously (i) marginally calibrated, (ii) locally valid, and (iii) hierarchical, handling global and observation-specific parameters in a single pass. Through experiments on synthetic data and benchmarks from neuroscience and physics, we show that our approach attains 1 − α coverage, where prior SBI methods under- or over-cover. Our approach also maintains a competitive, credible set size with minimal computational overhead. Finally, our approach can be used to make predictions on real data and give valid credible regions modulo weight-initialization-based model mis-specification.

Trivedi, Shubhendu [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Low-Density Parity-Check Codes as Stable Phases of Quantum Matter

Phases of matter with robust ground-state degeneracy, such as the quantum toric code, are known to be capable of robust quantum information storage. Here, we address the converse question: given a quantum error-correcting code, when does it define a stable gapped quantum phase of matter, whose ground-state degeneracy is robust against perturbations in the thermodynamic limit? We prove that a low-density parity-check (LDPC) code defines such a phase, robust against all few-body perturbations, if its code distance grows at least logarithmically in the number of degrees of freedom, and it exhibits “check soundness.” Many constant-rate quantum LDPC expander codes have such properties, and define stable phases of matter with a constant zero-temperature entropy density, violating the third law of thermodynamics. Our results also show that quantum toric-code phases are robust to spatially nonlocal few-body perturbations. Similarly, phases of matter defined by classical codes are stable against symmetric perturbations. In the classical setting, we present improved locality bounds on the quasiadiabatic evolution operator between two nearby states in the same code phase.

quantum error correction↗

DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Routing of Quantum LDPC Codes on Programmable 2D Toric Architectures

Quantum low-density parity-check codes are promising candidates towards scalable fault-tolerant quantum computation. Among these, bivariate bicycle (BB) codes offer superior encoding rates and large code distance compared to surface codes. However, their requirement on long-range stabilizer measurements poses significant challenges for implementation on realistic hardware with limited connectivity, such as superconducting circuit platforms. In this work, we introduce a novel hardware-software co-design that leverages a programmable communication network architecture to address these limitations. Our approach utilizes a 2D toric network of oscillators as a flexible communication fabric linking qubits at each site. Such architecture significantly reduces the number of long-range couplers required from O ( n ) to O (√ n ). Dual-rail qubits, along with native gates including Swap-Wait-Swap gates and beamsplitter SWAPs, ensure that long-range two-qubit gates can be executed with high fidelity and low latency. To further enhance performance, our qubit layout and routing algorithm utilize symmetries of the codes and enable maximum parallelism for long-range two-qubit gates, maintaining a low syndrome extraction cycle duration and scalability over the code length. We perform circuit-level simulation with realistic noise modeling based on experimental hardware parameters, observing an logical error rate per logical qubit per cycle of 3.06% for [[18,4,4]] BB code, 2.6× less than the existing experimental result. These findings provide a practical roadmap and identify key technological advancements needed to achieve low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum computing at scale.

Liu, Kun [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire time series of sensor and geochemistry sample data from surface water, groundwater, precipitation, soil, and vegetation across Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Stream sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2 in 2024, affecting the five study sites at varying burn severities. Each site is equipped with YSI EXO2 sondes logging sub-hourly throughout the year, and grab samples are collected approximately every six weeks. YSI sondes are used to measure temporally resolved proxies for groundwater inputs (specific conductivity) and organic matter (fluorescent dissolved organic matter; fDOM) along with basic water quality and depth. Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, and precipitation are analyzed for water stable isotopes and conductivity to understand endmembers for hydrologic mixing Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, soil water, and litter/vegetation/soil leachates are analyzed for organic matter composition measured by Fourier-Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS) to understand organic matter dynamics. Game camera photos are provided in a separate data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018598. Future versions of this dataset will include time series data from YSI EXO2 sondes (fDOM, dissolved oxygen, temperature, depth, specific conductance, turbidity, pH), BaroTROLL sensors (air temperature and barometric pressure), rain gauges (precipitation), and data from the soil and vegetation samples. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected data and the additional data types. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of field photos; (2) a folder of surface water sample data; (3) a folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data; (4) a data checks report; (5) file-level metadata; (6) data dictionary; (7) field metadata; (8) readme; (9) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (10) field protocols. The sample data subfolder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) total dissolved nitrogen data and averages; (3) stable water isotopes and averages; (4) methods codes; (5) FTICR-MS methods; and (15) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the water CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .d, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, .png, .mov, or .mp4.

Biogeochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

When to vaccinate for seasonal influenza: check the peak forecast

Background Seasonal influenza infects 5-20% of people every year in the United States, resulting in hospitalizations, deaths, and adverse economic impacts. To mitigate these impacts, influenza vaccines are developed and distributed annually; however, growing evidence suggests that vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a flu season. Delaying influenza vaccination for older adults has attracted attention as a potential public health strategy. However, given the uncertainties in seasonal peak, vaccine effectiveness, and waning rates, postponing vaccination could also lead to increased morbidity, motivating an evaluation of a range of potential scenarios. The aim of this study was to investigate favorable age group-specific vaccination schedules that could lead to the greatest disease burden reduction. Methods We systematically investigated a broad range of vaccination start times for five age groups under six combinations of initial effectiveness and waning rates, based on influenza cases and vaccine uptake data from 10 influenza seasons. We defined the most favorable vaccination schedule as the one that resulted in the greatest reduction in disease burden. Results In scenarios with fast waning, all age groups benefit from delaying vaccination regardless of initial VE and peak timing. In scenarios with slower waning, results are mixed. For the ≥65 group, high initial VE and slow waning suggests that in early-peaking seasons, early vaccination most effectively reduces disease burden, while in late-peaking seasons delaying vaccination is most effective. For the ≥65 group in medium and low initial VE, and slow waning scenarios, delaying vaccination appears to prevent the greatest number of cases, regardless of whether the season peaks early or late. Conclusion The most favorable vaccination schedule is sensitive to changes in initial VE, waning rate, and peak timing. Given estimates of these quantities from statistical and immunological models and observations, our methods can inform vaccination recommendations in order to most effectively reduce the annual disease burden caused by seasonal influenza. Specifically, accurate peak timing forecasts for the upcoming season have the potential to guide decisions on when to vaccinate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

WHONDRS Surface Water and Sediment Geochemistry and Organic Matter Characterization Data from Streams across HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon (v2)

This dataset supports a broader study developing conceptual models for river corridor critical zone processes across spatial scales and was generated in collaboration with the HJ Andrews River Corridor Critical Zone Workshop in 2025. The dataset provides surface water geochemistry (dissolved organic carbon, total dissolved nitrogen) from 48 sites across the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon (https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu). Some of the sites have been impacted by the Holiday Farm Fire and the Lookout Fire in 2020 and 2023, respectively. Related data were collected as part of the workshop and will be published separately in collaboration with other workshop attendees and available at http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/b274c4a234bf4b12b7cb8a54a696c629. Related genomic data can be found on the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) under BioProject PRJNA1503030 (see critical details section below for more information). Additional related data collected in 2016 from a similar effort can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3377027 and http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/ea6c0832885a46c3939e7bb22e48e754 and are described within https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1-2019 (Ward et al., 2019). This data package was originally published in March 2026. It was updated in August 2026 (v2; new and modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of field photos, (2) a folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data, (3) a data checks report, (4) a folder of sample data, (5) file-level metadata, (6) data dictionary, (7) field metadata, (8) readme, (9) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (10) field protocol. The sample data subfolder contains surface water and sediment (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages, (2) total dissolved nitrogen data and averages, (3) methods codes, (4) FTICR-MS methods; and (5) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the CoreMS processed data and seven subfolders, thee containing .xml files for each sample type (sediment, surface water and blank samples), three containing the sediment CoreMS output files for each sample type (sediment, surface water and blank samples), and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, or .jpeg.

Biogeochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Regression Testing

Via programs including the Light Water Reactor Sustainability and Integrated Energy Systems, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) software framework (Idaho National Laboratory 2024a) for the technical and economic analysis of nuclear-integrated energy systems (IES). Nuclear IES expand the use of nuclear from traditional baseload electricity generation to a flexible and adaptive source of combined heat and power. Nuclear heat can be used in the production of a variety of energy currencies such as hydrogen and ammonia as well as other heat applications including water desalination and district heating. FORCE is designed with the intent to provide interconnected analysis tools that enable the accurate technical and economic assessment of specific nuclear IES configurations for individual energy markets. FORCE consists of three main analysis pathways: HYBRID (Idaho National Laboratory 2024b), which contains high-resolution physical models for IES; Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) (Idaho National Laboratory 2024c), which analyzes IES long-term economic viability; and Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA) (Idaho National Laboratory 2024d), designed for real-time control of IES via digital twins and optimal decision making, including autonomous and remote operation research. Development of the FORCE ecosystem is guided by three pillars: capability, which assures that the computational requirements of IES analysis are met by the software tools; reliability, which provides for consistent code performance and expected behaviors; and accessibility, which lowers the barrier to entry for using the software and accelerates analysis by users beyond the FORCE primary developers. Reliability of the FORCE ecosystem is established according to the American Nuclear Society?s Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) program [American Society of Mechanical Engineers 1982], with specific levels of software quality assurance (SQA) within NQA-1 applied to each software tool in FORCE. As the tools within FORCE have matured, some integration algorithms to accurately connect the software tools for holistic analysis have been developed and deployed within the FORCE software repository. In accordance with NQA-1 standards, regression tests are required to guarantee the software performs consistently even when new capabilities are added to the software. In this report, we document the deployment of both unit tests, which test the consistent behavior of small pieces of the FORCE code base, as well as integration tests, which test the consistent performance of full use cases for the FORCE integration algorithms. We further document the encapsulation of these tests within a test harness, which collectively checks for each successful test completion on demand. Finally, we document the automation of the test harness using GitHub Actions [GitHub 2024], which require all tests succeed before any new capability or other changes can be added to the FORCE integration software

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗