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At least 127 records · Page 7

Dynamics of the DAZd Disks

New observations of DAZ dwarfs suggest that many of these stars---the DAZd subclass---host rings of debris. We will discuss the minerology and dynamics ofthese rings as inferred from models of new mid-infrared spectra and photometry raken with the Spitzer space telescope, I will show that rhe DAZd rings do not need to be recently supplied by a single comet; they can survive for approx. 1 Gyr.

Kuchner, Marc↗

A Starfish Preplanetary Nebula: IRAS 19024+0044

Using the Hubble Space Telescope, we have imaged the OH/IR star IRAS 19024+0044 (I19024) at 0.6, 0.8, 1.1, and 1.6 micrometers, as part of our surveys of candidate preplanetary nebulae. The images show a multipolar nebula of size approximately equal to 3.'7 2.'3, with at least six elongated lobes emanating from the center of the nebula. Two of the lobes show limb-brightened tips having point-symmetric structure with respect to the expected location of the central star. The central region shows two dark bands southwest and northeast of a central shallow maximum that may be either two inclined dusty toroidal structures or the dense parts of a single wide, inhomogeneous, toroid. Avery faint, surface brightness-limited, diffuse halo surrounds the lobes. Long-slit/echelle optical spectroscopy obtained at the Mount Palomar and Keck observatories shows a spatially compact source of H(alpha) emission; the H(alpha) line shows a strong, narrow, central core with very broad (+/-1000 km/sec), weak wings, and a narrower blueshifted absorption feature signifying the presence of an approximately 100 km/sec(exp -1) outflow. The spectrum is characterized by a strong, relatively featureless, continuum and lacks the strong forbidden emission lines characteristic of planetary nebulae, confirming that IRAS 19024 is a preplanetary nebula; the spectral type for the central star, although uncertain, is most likely early G. Interferometric observations of the CO J = 1 -0 line emission with the Owens Valley Radio Interferometer show a marginally resolved molecular envelope (size 5.'5 x 4.'4) with an expansion velocity of 13 km/sec (exp -1), resulting from the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) progenitor's dense, slow wind. We derive a kinematic distance of 3.5 kpc to I19024, based on its radial velocity. The bolometric flux is 7:3 x 10(exp -9) erg s(exp -1) cm(exp -2), and the luminosity 2850 L. The relatively low luminosity of I19024, in comparison with stellar evolutionary models, indicates that the initial mass of its central star was approximately 1-1.5 solar mass. The lobes, which appear to be hollow structures with dense walls, have a total mass greater than or equal to about 0.02 solar mass. The lobes, which appear to be hollow structures with dense walls, have a total mass greater than or equal to about 0.02 solar mass. The dusty tori in the center have masses of a few times 10(exp -3) solar mass. The faint halo has a power-law radial surface brightness profile with an exponent of about -3 and most likely represents the remnant spherical circumstellar envelope formed as a result of constant mass loss during the AGB expansion age of less than or approximately equal to 2870 yr, giving a mass-loss rate of greater than or approximately equal to 10(exp -5) solar mass yr (exp -1), The far-infrared fluxes of I19024 indicate the presence of a large mass of cool dust in the nebula, from a simple model we infer the presence of 'cool' (109 K) and 'warm' (280 K) components of dust mass 5.7 x 10(exp -4) and 1.5 x 10(exp -7) solar mass. We discuss our results for I19024 in the light of past and current ideas for the dramatic transformation of the morphology and kinematics of mass-ejecta as AGB stars evolve into planetary nebulae.

circumstellar matter↗

A Giant Radio Halo in a Low-Mass SZ-Selected Galaxy Cluster: ACT-CL J0256.5+0006

We present the detection of a giant radio halo (GRH) in the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ)-selected merging galaxy cluster ACT-CL J0256.5+0006 (zeta = 0.363), observed with the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope at 325 MHz and 610 MHz. We find this cluster to host a faint (S(sub 610) = 5.6 +/- 1.4 mJy) radio halo with an angular extent of 2.6 arcmin, corresponding to 0.8 Mpc at the cluster redshift, qualifying it as a GRH. J0256 is one of the lowest-mass systems, M(sub 500,SZ) = (5.0 +/- 1.2) x 10(sup14) solar mass foud to host a GRH. We measure the GRH at lower significance at 325 MHz (S(sub 325) = 10.3 +/- 5.3 mJy), obtaining a spectral index measurement of alpha sup 610 sub 325 = 1.0(sup +0.7)(sub 0.9). This result is consistent with the mean spectral index of the population of typical radio halos, alpha = 1.2 +/- 0.2. Adopting the latter value, we determine a 1.4 GHz radio power of P(sub 1.4GHz) = (1.0 +/- 03) x 10(sup 24) W Hz(sup -1), placing this cluster within the scatter of known scaling relations. Various lines of evidence, including the ICM morphology, suggest that ACT-CL J0256.5+0006 is composed of two subclusters. We determine a merger mass ratio of 7:4, and a line-of-sight velocity difference of perpendicular = 1880 +/- 210 km s(sup -1). We construct a simple merger model of infer relevant time-scales in the merger. From its location on the P1.4GHz-L(sub x) scaling relation, we infer that we observe ACT-CL J0256.5+0006 just before first core crossing.

core crossing↗

A Giant Radio Halo in a Low-Mass Sz-selected Galaxy Cluster: ACT-CLJ0256.5+0006

We present the detection of a giant radio halo (GRH) in the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ)- selected merging galaxy cluster ACT-CL J0256.5+ 0006 (z = 0.363), observed with the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope at 325 and 610 MHz. We find this cluster to host a faint (S610 = 5.6 +/- 1.4mJy) radio halo with an angular extent of 2.6 arcmin, corresponding to 0.8 Mpc at the cluster redshift, qualifying it as a GRH. J0256 is one of the lowest mass systems, M500, SZ = (5.0 +/- 1.2) × 10(exp14) M, found to host a GRH. We measure the GRH at lower significance at 325 MHz (S325 = 10.3 +/- 5.3mJy), obtaining a spectral index measurement of α610 325 = 1.0+ 0.7 − 0.9. This result is consistent with the mean spectral index of the population of typical radio haloes, alpha = 1.2 +/- 0.2. Adopting the latter value, we determine a 1.4 GHz radio power of P1.4 GHz = (1.0 +/- 0.3) × 10(exp 24)W/Hz, placing this cluster within the scatter of known scaling relations. Various lines of evidence, including the intracluster medium morphology, suggest that ACT-CL J0256.5+ 0006 is composed of two subclusters. We determine a merger mass ratio of 7:4, and a line-of-sight velocity difference of v⊥ = 1880 +/- 210 km/s. We construct a simple merger model to infer relevant time-scales in the merger. From its location on the P1.4GHz-LX scaling relation, we infer that we observe ACT-CL J0256.5+ 0006 just before first core crossing.

Knowles, Kendra↗

NuSTAR, SWIFT, and GROND Observations of the Flairing MeV Blazar PMN J0641-0320

MeV blazars are a sub-population of the blazar family, exhibiting larger-than-average jet powers, accretion luminosities, and black hole masses. Because of their extremely hard X-ray continua, these objects are best studied in the X-ray domain. Here, we report on the discovery by the Fermi Large Area Telescope and subsequent follow-up observations with NuSTAR, Swift, and GROND of a new member of the MeV blazar family: PMN J0641-0320. Our optical spectroscopy provides confirmation that this is a flat-spectrum radio quasar located at a redshift of z = 1.196. Its very hard NuSTAR spectrum (power-law photon index of approx.1 up to approx. 80 keV) indicates that the emission is produced via inverse Compton scattering off of photons coming from outside the jet. The overall spectral energy distribution of PMN J0641-0320 is typical of powerful blazars and, using a simple one-zone leptonic emission model, we infer that the emission region is located either inside the broad line region or within the dusty torus.

galaxies: active quasars: general↗

Optical and Near-Infrared Observations of SN 2013DX Associated with GRB 130702A

We present optical and near-infrared (NIR) light curves and optical spectra of SN 2013dx, associated with the nearby (redshift 0.145) gamma-ray burst GRB 130702A. The prompt isotropic gamma-ray energy released from GRB 130702A is measured to be E(sub gamma, iso) = 6.4(+1.3/-1.0) x 10(exp 50) erg (1 keV to 10 MeV in the rest frame), placing it intermediate between low-luminosity GRBs like GRB 980425/SN 1998bw and the broader cosmological population. We compare the observed g'r'i'z' light curves of SN 2013dx to a SN 1998bw template, finding that SN 2013dx evolves approx. 20% faster (steeper rise time), with a comparable peak luminosity. Spectroscopically, SN 2013dx resembles other broad-lined SNe Ic, both associated with (SN 2006aj and SN 1998bw) and lacking (SN 1997ef, SN 2007I, and SN 2010ah) gamma-ray emission, with photospheric velocities around peak of approx. 21,000 km/s. We construct a quasi-bolometric (g'r'z'yJ) light curve for SN 2013dx, only the fifth GRB-associated SN with extensive NIR coverage and the third with a bolometric light curve extending beyond (Delta)t > 40 days. Together with the measured photospheric velocity, we derive basic explosion parameters using simple analytic models. We infer a Ni-56 mass of M(sub Ni) = 0.37+/- 0.01 Stellar Mass, an ejecta mass of M(sub ej) = 3.1+/- 0.1 Stellar Mass, and a kinetic energy of E(sub K) = (8.2+/- 0.43) x 10(exp 51) erg (statistical uncertainties only), consistent with previous GRB-associated supernovae. When considering the ensemble population of GRB-associated supernovae, we find no correlation between the mass of synthesized Ni-56 and high-energy properties, despite clear predictions from numerical simulations that M(sub Ni) should correlate with the degree of asymmetry. On the other hand, M(sub Ni) clearly correlates with the kinetic energy of the supernova ejecta across a wide range of core-collapse events.

gamma-ray burst: individual (GRB 130702A) – supe↗

H- and Dissociation in Ultra-hot Jupiters: A Retrieval Case Study of WASP-18b

Atmospheres of a number of ultra-hot Jupiters (UHJs) with temperatures gsim2000 K have been observed recently. Many of these planets show largely featureless thermal spectra in the near-infrared observed with the HST WFC3 spectrograph (1.1–1.7 μm) even though this spectral range contains strong H2O opacity. Recent works have proposed the possibility of H- opacity masking the H2O feature and/or thermal dissociation of H2O causing its apparent depletion at the high temperatures of UHJs. In this work, we test these hypotheses using observations of the exoplanet WASP-18b as a case study. We report detailed atmospheric retrievals of the planet using the HyDRA retrieval code, extended to include the effects of H- opacity and thermal dissociation. We report constraints on the H2O, CO, and H- abundances as well as the pressure–temperature profile of the dayside atmosphere for retrievals with and without H-/dissociation for each data set. We find that the H2O and H- abundances are relatively unconstrained given the featureless WFC3 spectra. We do not conclusively detect H- in the planet, contrary to previous studies that used equilibrium models to infer its presence. The constraint on the CO abundance depends on the combination of WFC3 and Spitzer data, ranging from solar to super-solar CO values. We additionally see signs of a thermal inversion from two of the data sets. Our study demonstrates the potential of atmospheric retrievals of UHJs, including the effects of H- and thermal dissociation of molecules.

Siddharth Gandhi↗

GeneLab: Current and Future Omics Data Integration Between Space Biology and HRP

For the past five years, the Biological and Physical Sciences Division has pioneered Open Science in Space Biology by funding the NASA GeneLab project. Along with the Ames Life Sciences Data Archive, GeneLab has quickly become the world leader in archiving and scientifically curating spaceflight and spaceflight relevant multi-omics data. Specifically, the GeneLab Data System has become a full enterprise solution providing advanced mining capabilities, several application programming interfaces for data federation and machine learning approaches, and delivering to the world an analytical and visualization platform which has enabled collaboration within the scientific community. Over the past three years, large meta-analysis and modeling studies have been published by the GeneLab Analysis Working Groups (AWGs), which are comprised of ~200 volunteer scientists. One natural extension of GeneLab data reuse has recently turned towards linking animal data with human data, which is the next necessary step to further validate animal models for inferring biological risks to humans conducting LEO, lunar or Martian missions. As such, data from the Human Research Program are an essential component of GeneLab and ALSDA. At the moment, simulated space radiation experiments conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory make the most of HRP GeneLab data, and the scientific community has been eager to also link their animal spaceflight results to actual Astronaut data and human analog data. We will discuss further the current status of knowledge and future approaches to accelerate our basics understanding of the impact of space stressors on humans using latest omics technology.

omics↗

NASA Satellites and Data Fusion: A Case Study with Coral Reefs

As the world is experiencing a significant rise in both AI, Climate, and Space start-up companies, we are in a new wave of limitless innovation. NASA's statutory responsibility is to "provide for the widest practicable and appropriate dissemination of information concerning its activities and the results thereof." (51 U.S.C. § 20112) In particular, through machine learning, the public data drawn from NASA’s space assets can provide insights for addressing climate-related problems here on Earth. And many climate start-up companies can benefit from leveraging this data, either for proof of concepts or their own missions. In the Fall of 2021, several scientists from NASA and Coral Vita led a Practicum with the Georgia Institute of Technology Masters in Data Analytics program. The Practicum saw two teams of students develop and implement machine learning models to infer, from CALIPSO satellite imagery, vitality properties upon satellite pass. This kind of capability can lead to real-time mapping of coral health around the world, giving organization an understanding of where to prioritize reef reconstitution.. In this presentation, we will highlight this use case and discuss other concrete applications in which space data is used to solve problems here on Earth.

Earth Sciences↗

X-Ray Polarization From the Atoll 4U 1735−44 Suggests a Low Inclination

X-ray polarimetry is a new tool capable of probing the geometry of accretion onto weakly magnetized neutron stars. Here we present the first X-ray spectro-polarimetric results from coordinated observations of the atoll source 4U 1735−44, conducted with the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), NICER, and NuSTAR . Over the 2–8 keV energy range, we obtained a marginal detection of polarization with the polarization degree of 1.4% ± 0.7% and polarization angle of −29◦ ± 14◦, corresponding to a 3σ upper limit on the polarization degree of 3.5%. The best-fit model to describe the spectrum comprises a thermal component associated with the accretion disk, a Comptonized black body component, and a relativistic reflection component. From the reflection model, we infer a disk inclination of ∼40◦. The spectroscopic and polarimetric properties of 4U 1735−44 are consistent with those observed in other atoll sources studied by IXPE, with its low polarization likely due to its low inclination

X-rays: binaries↗

Li-7 abundances in halo stars: Testing stellar evolution models and the primordial Li-7 abundance

A large number of stellar evolution models with (Fe/H) = -2.3 and -3.3 have been calculated in order to determine the primordial Li-7 abundance and to test current stellar evolution models by a comparison to the extensive database of accurate Li abundances in extremely metal-poor halo stars observed by Thorburn (1994). Standard models with gray atmospheres do a very good job of fitting the observed Li abundances in stars hotter than approximately 5600 K. They predict a primordial. Li-7 abundance of log N(Li) = 2.24 +/- 0.03. Models which include microscopic diffusion predict a downward curvature in the Li-7 destruction isochrones at hot temperatures which is not present in the observations. Thus, the observations clearly rule out models which include uninhibited microscopic diffusion of Li-7 from the surface of the star. Rotational mixing inhibits the microscopic diffusion and the (Fe/H) = -2.28 stellar models which include both diffusion and rotational mixing provide an excellent match to the mean trend in T(sub eff) which is present in the observations. Both the plateau stars and the heavily depleted cool stars are well fit by these models. The rotational mixing leads to considerable Li-7 depletion in these models and the primordial Li-7 abundance inferred from these models is log N(Li) = 3.08 +/- 0.1. However, the (Fe/H) = -3.28 isochrones reveal problems with the combined models. These isochrones predict a trend of decreasing log N(Li) with increasing T(sub eff) which is not present in the observations. Possible causes for this discrepancy are discussed.

Chaboyer, Brian↗

Modular Spectral Inference Framework Applied to Young Stars and Brown Dwarfs

In practice, synthetic spectral models are imperfect, causing inaccurate estimates of stellar parameters. Using forward modeling and statistical inference, we derive accurate stellar parameters for a given observed spectrum by emulating a grid of precomputed spectra to track uncertainties. Spectral inference as applied to brown dwarfs re: Synthetic spectral models (Marley et al 1996 and 2014) via the newest grid spans a massive multi-dimensional grid applied to IGRINS spectra, improving atmospheric models for JWST. When applied to young stars(10Myr) with large starpots, they can be measured spectroscopically, especially in the near-IR with IGRINS.

Neutrinos from SN 1987A - Implications for cooling of the nascent neutron star and the mass of the electron antineutrino

Data on neutrinos from SN 1987A are compared here with parameterized models of the neutrino emission using a consistent and straightforward statistical methodology. The empirically measured detector background spectra are included in the analysis, and the data are compared with a much wider variety of neutrino emission models than was explored previously. It is shown that the inferred neutrino emission model parameters are strongly correlated. The analysis confirms that simple models of the neutrino cooling of the nascent neutron star formed by the SN adequately explain the data. The inferred radius and binding energy of the neutron star are in excellent agreement with model calculations based on a wide range of equations of state. The results also raise the upper limit of the electron antineutrino rest mass to roughly 25 eV at the 95 percent confidence level, roughly 1.5-5 times higher than found previously.

Loredo, Thomas J.↗

Escarpment evolution on high-elevation rifted margins: Insights derived from a surface processes model that combines diffusion, advection and reaction

Experiments with a surface processes model of large-scale (1-1000 km) long-term (1-100 m.y.) erosional denudation are used to establish the controls on the evolution of a model escarpment that is related to the rifting of a continent. The mdoel describes changes in topographic form as a result of sumultaneous short- and long-range mass transport representing hillslope (diffusive) processes and fluvial transport (advection), repsectively. Fluvial entrainment is modeled as a first-order kinetic reaction which reflects the erodibility of the substrate, and therefore the fluvial system is not necessarily carrying at capacity. One dimensional and planform models demonstrate that the principal controls on the evolution of an initially steep model escarpment are (1) antecedent topography/drainage; (2) the timesale (or equivalently a length scale) in the fluvial entrainment reaction; (3) the flexural response of the lithosphere to denudation; and (4) the relative efficiencies of the short- and long-range transport processes. When rainfall and substrate lithology are uniform, a significant amount of discharge draining over the escarpment top causes it to degrade. Only when the top of the model escarpment coincides with a drainage divide can escarpment retreat occur for these conditions. An additional requirement for retreat of a model escarpment without decline is a long reaction time scale for fluvial entrainment. This corresponds to a substrate that is hard to detach by flucial erosion, and therefore to fluvial erosion that is not transport limited. Coninuous backtilting of an escarpment due ot flexural isostatic uplift in response to denudational unloading helps maintain the scarp top as a divide. It is essntial if the escarpment gradient is to be preserved during retreat in a uniform lithology. Low flexural rigidieties propote steep and slowly retreating escarpments. For given rainfall and substrate conditions, the morphology of a retraeating model escarpment is determined by the ratio of hte short-range diffusive and long range advective transport efficiencies. A low ration (which is interpreted to correspond to a more humid, temperate climate) produces a convex upper slope, and concave lower slope morphology and only major escarpments are predicted to preserve a high scarp gradient. Lithological contrasts in hte model produce more complex morphologies and predict the formation of scarps crowned by an erosionaly resistant caprock. However, resistant caprocks are not an essential requirement for model scarps to retreat. We conclude that the inferred controls and model behavior are both consistent with the present-day morphology of rifted continental margins and with modern conceptual models of landscape evolution.

Kooi, Henk↗

Crustal Deformation and the Seismic Cycle across the Kodiak Islands, Alaska

The Kodiak Islands are located approximately 130 to 250 km from the Alaska-Aleutian Trench where the Pacific plate is underthrusting the North American plate at a rate of about 57 mm/yr. The southern extent of the 1964 Prince William Sound (${M-w}$ = 9.2) earthquake rupture occurred offshore and beneath the eastern portion of the Kodiak Islands. Here we report GPS results (1993-2001) from northern Kodiak Island that span the transition between the 1964 uplift region along the eastern coast and the region of coseismic subsidence further inland. The horizontal velocity vectors range from 22.9 $\pm$ 2.2 mm/yr at N26.3$\deg$W $\pm$ 2.5$\deg$, about 150 km from the trench, to 5.9 $\pm$ 1.3 mm/yr at N65.9$\deg$W $\pm$ 6.6$\deg$, about 190 km from the trench. Near the northeastern coast of Kodiak the velocity vector above the shallow, locked main thrust zone is between the orientation of PCFC-NOAM plate motion (N22$/deg$W) and the trench-normal (N3O$\deg$W). Further west, our geodetic results suggest the accumulation of shear strain that will be released eventually as left-lateral motion on upper plate faults such as the Kodiak Island fault. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the difference between the Pacific-North American plate motion and the orientation of the down going slab would lead to 4-8 mm/yr of left-lateral slip. Short-term geodetic uplift rates range from 2 - 14 mm/yr, with the maximum uplift located near the axis of maximum subsidence during the 1964 earthquake. We evaluated alternate interseismic models for Kodiak to test the importance of various mechanisms responsible for crustal deformation rates. These models are based on the plate interface slip history inferred from earlier modeling of coseismic and post-seismic geodetic results. The horizontal (trench perpendicular) and vertical deformation rates across Kodiak are consistent with a model that includes the viscoelastic response to : (1) a downgoing Pacific plate interface that is locked at shallow depths,(2) coseismic slip in the 1964 and (3) interseismic creep below the seismogenic zone. The change in orientation of the horizontal velocity vector occurs down-dip from the locked main thrust zone. In southern Kodiak, the coseismic slip in the 1964 earthquake was smaller than in the northern Kodiak region; yet, the horizontal, interseismic velocities as a function of distance from the trench are comparable to those in northern Kodiak. Based on the earthquake history prior to, and following the 1964 earthquake, we hypothesize that the plate interface in southern Kodiak slips in more frequent large earthquakes than in northern Kodiak.

Sauber, Jeanne↗

GEOS-CF Model Assessment of PM2.5 During Wildfires: Inferring the Impact of PM2.5 Exposure on Adverse Respiratory & Cardiovascular Conditions

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can aggravate pre-existing respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. When PM2.5 is inhaled it can cause damage to the lungs such as reduced lung function and shortness of breath. After being inhaled PM2.5 can enter the bloodstream and cause harm to the heart. One major natural source of PM2.5 exposure is from wildfire smoke. The particulates within the smoke from the wildfires can spread from the initial source region, potentially impacting communities both near and far. During and after wildfire events, PM2.5 levels can exceed the WHO air quality guidelines (10 gm^3 annual mean; 25 gm^3 daily mean), becoming hazardous to an individual's health. Global models can be used to simulate the emission and transport of these particulates and subsequently they can be valuable to air quality forecasting in highly polluted areas. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) system has been used to produce near-real time air quality forecasts of atmospheric composition at a high global resolution of 25 km. The GEOS-CF system utilizes the GEOS weather forecast model coupled with GEOS-Chem (version 11) chemistry module to provide analyses and forecasts of various toxic air pollutants, including PM2.5. The GEOS-CF simulated high levels of PM2.5 (40 gm^3 to 250 gm^3 ), exceeding the WHO guidelines, during multiple recent regional and global wildfire seasons, including the 2017 Seattle, WA and Los Angeles, CA wildfire seasons, and biomass burning events in India. Furthermore, the GEOS-CF simulated PM2.5 applied to a human health assessment model, BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, version 1.3), estimates the impact on adverse respiratory health conditions due to PM2.5 exposure from wildfires. The GEOS-CF predicted PM2.5 during the wildfire season with the corresponding BenMAP results provides an assessment of the human health impact of PM2.5 exposure.

Saunders, Emily↗

NASA's GEOS Composition Model Assessment of PM2.5 During Wildfires: Inferring the Impact of PM2.5 Exposure on Adverse Respiratory & Cardiovascular Conditions

Particulate matter pollution is a mixture of solid and liquid droplets floating in the air that can lead to reduced air quality and increased adverse health impact. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can be emitted into the air from anthropogenic sources such as the burning of fossil fuels, motor vehicles, and powerplant emissions. Exposure to PM2.5 can aggravate pre-existing respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. When PM2.5 is inhaled it can cause damage to the lungs such as reduced lung function and shortness of breath. After being inhaled PM2.5 can enter the bloodstream and cause harm to the heart. One major natural source of PM2.5 exposure is from wildfire smoke. The particulates within the smoke from the wildfires can spread from the initial source region, potentially impacting communities both near and far. During and after wildfire events, PM2.5 levels can exceed the WHO air quality guidelines (10 m.g/m^3 annual mean; 25 m.g/m^3 daily mean), becoming hazardous to an individual's health. Global models can be used to simulate the emission and transport of these particulates and subsequently they can be valuable to air quality forecasting in highly polluted areas. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) system has been used to produce near-real time air quality forecasts of atmospheric composition at a high global resolution of 25x25 km2. The GEOS-CF system utilizes the GEOS weather forecast model coupled with GEOS-Chem (version 11) chemistry module to provide analyses and forecasts of various toxic air pollutants, including PM2.5. The GEOS-CF simulated high levels of PM2.5 (40 m.g/m^3 to 250 m.g/m^3 ), exceeding the WHO guidelines, during multiple recent regional and global wildfire seasons, including the 2017 Washington State and Northern and Southern California wildfire seasons. Furthermore, the GEOS-CF simulated PM2.5 applied to a human health assessment model, BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, version 1.3), estimates the impact on adverse respiratory health conditions due to PM2.5 exposure from wildfires. The GEOS-CF predicted PM2.5 during the wildfire season with the corresponding BenMAP results provides an assessment of the human health impact of PM2.5 exposure.

Saunders, Emily↗

Astrophysical Model Selection in Gravitational Wave Astronomy

Theoretical studies in gravitational wave astronomy have mostly focused on the information that can be extracted from individual detections, such as the mass of a binary system and its location in space. Here we consider how the information from multiple detections can be used to constrain astrophysical population models. This seemingly simple problem is made challenging by the high dimensionality and high degree of correlation in the parameter spaces that describe the signals, and by the complexity of the astrophysical models, which can also depend on a large number of parameters, some of which might not be directly constrained by the observations. We present a method for constraining population models using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach which simultaneously infers the source parameters and population model and provides the joint probability distributions for both. We illustrate this approach by considering the constraints that can be placed on population models for galactic white dwarf binaries using a future space-based gravitational wave detector. We find that a mission that is able to resolve approximately 5000 of the shortest period binaries will be able to constrain the population model parameters, including the chirp mass distribution and a characteristic galaxy disk radius to within a few percent. This compares favorably to existing bounds, where electromagnetic observations of stars in the galaxy constrain disk radii to within 20%.

hierarchical↗