Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model discrepancy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

An Analytical Solution of Radiative Transfer in the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System with Rough Surface

Using the efficient discrete-ordinate method, we present an analytical solution for radiative transfer in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system with rough air-water interface. The theoretical formulations of the radiative transfer equation and solution are described. The effects of surface roughness on radiation field in the atmosphere and ocean are studied and compared with measurements. The results show that ocean surface roughness has significant effects on the upwelling radiation in the atmosphere and the downwelling radiation in the ocean. As wind speed increases, the angular domain of sunglint broadens, the surface albedo decreases, and the transmission to ocean increases. The downward radiance field in the upper ocean is highly anisotropic, but this anisotropy decreases rapidly as surface wind increases and as depth in ocean increases. The effects of surface roughness on radiation also depend greatly on both wavelength and angle of incidence (i.e., solar elevation); these effects are significantly smaller throughout the spectrum at high sun. The model-observation discrepancies may indicate that the Cox-Munk surface roughness model is not sufficient for high wind conditions.

Jin, Zhonghai↗
DOE OSTI2021

Divergent controls of soil organic carbon between observations and process-based models

Abstract The storage and cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) are governed by multiple co-varying factors, including climate, plant productivity, edaphic properties, and disturbance history. Yet, it remains unclear which of these factors are the dominant predictors of observed SOC stocks, globally and within biomes, and how the role of these predictors varies between observations and process-based models. Here we use global observations and an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models to quantify the emergent importance of key state factors – namely, mean annual temperature, net primary productivity, and soil mineralogy – in explaining biome- to global-scale variation in SOC stocks. We use a machine-learning approach to disentangle the role of covariates and elucidate individual relationships with SOC, without imposing expected relationships a priori . While we observe qualitatively similar relationships between SOC and covariates in observations and models, the magnitude and degree of non-linearity vary substantially among the models and observations. Models appear to overemphasize the importance of temperature and primary productivity (especially in forests and herbaceous biomes, respectively), while observations suggest a greater relative importance of soil minerals. This mismatch is also evident globally. However, we observe agreement between observations and model outputs in select individual biomes – namely, temperate deciduous forests and grasslands, which both show stronger relationships of SOC stocks with temperature and productivity, respectively. This approach highlights biomes with the largest uncertainty and mismatch with observations for targeted model improvements. Understanding the role of dominant SOC controls, and the discrepancies between models and observations, globally and across biomes, is essential for improving and validating process representations in soil and ecosystem models for projections under novel future conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Discrepancies between empirical and theoretical models of the flaring solar chromosphere and their possible resolution

Models of the solar chromosphere during flaring deduced theoretically or empirically are compared. Marked discrepancies are noted and various reasons are offered to explain their existence. A means is presented for testing theoretical heating models (electron heating) by analyzing the net energy loss rates in (observed) empirical atmospheres and inverting the flare energy equation to deduce the parameters of the supposed heating mechanism.

Emslie, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Diagnostic studies of the 1987 Antarctic spring vortex

Dynamical fields form the UK Meteorological office global forecast model were used throughout the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) for flight planning and diagnostic studies. Here, several studies based on the Meteorological Office global analysis (resolution 1.5 degrees lattitude x 1.875 degrees longitude, Lyne et al.) are described. The wind and temperature data derived from the model analysis are compared with observations made from both the DCB and ER-2, and an assessment of the model performance given. Derived quantities such as potential vorticity and model data and discrepancies due to the model data are discussed.

Austin, J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

LDEF data correlation to existing NASA debris environment models

Since the Long Duration Exposure Facility was gravity gradient stabilized and did not rotate, the directional dependence of the flux can be easily distinguished. During the deintegration of LDEF, all impact features larger than 0.5 mm into aluminum were documented for diameters and locations. In addition, all diameters and locations of all impact features larger than 0.3 mm into Scheldahl G411500 thermal control blankets were also documented. This data, along with additional information collected from LDEF materials archived at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) on smaller features, will be compared with current meteoroid and debris models. This comparison will provide a validation of the models and will identify discrepancies between the models and the data.

Atkinson, Dale R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

LDEF data correlation to existing NASA debris environment models

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) was recovered in January 1990, following 5.75 years exposure of about 130 sq. m to low-Earth orbit. About 25 sq. m of this surface area was aluminum 6061 T-6 exposed in every direction. In addition, about 17 sq. m of Scheldahl G411500 silver-Teflon thermal control blankets were exposed in 9 of the 12 directions. Since the LDEF was gravity gradient stabilized and did not rotate, the directional dependence of the flux can be easily distinguished. During the disintegration of the LDEF, all impact features larger than 0.5 mm into aluminum were documented for diameters and locations. In addition, the diameters and locations of all impact features larger than 0.3 mm into Scheldahl G411500 thermal control blankets were also documented. This data, along with additional information collected from LDEF materials will be compared with current meteoroid and debris models. This comparison will provide a validation of the models and will identify discrepancies between the models and the data.

Atkinson, Dale R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mapping TpPa-1 covalent organic framework (COF) molecular interactions in mixed solvents via atomistic modeling and experimental study

Complex solvent environments continue to limit the widespread adoption of organic solvent nanofiltration (OSN) in many chemical industry applications. In this paper we employ a commercially available covalent organic framework (COF), TpPa-1, and force field models to molecularly map separation performance of TpPa-1 membrane in mixed solvents. To minimize time and length scale mismatch between atomistic modeling and experiments, solvent permeance was normalized with water in modeling and experimental results to enable direct comparison. Model outputs, such as organic solvent permeance and solute rejection rate, matched well with filtration results. Since the atomistic models assume that all mass transfer is via through-pore transport, the discrepancies between modeling and experimental results provide insights on the effect of linear polymer defects, adsorption and interstitial mass transfer on polycrystalline COF membrane performance. In sum, force field models can serve as digital twins of COF membranes to simulate separation processes while capturing the effects of COF structure, chemistry, and crystallinity on membrane performance in complex organic solvent environments. Finally, this approach will provide insight into future COF design and synthesis for persisting separation challenges.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2016

Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of timedependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000-2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model-observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

carbon monoxide↗
DOE OSTI2018

High‐Frequency Intermittency in Observed and Model‐Simulated Precipitation

Abstract A newly reprocessed, bias‐corrected version of hourly satellite observations that provides global coverage of precipitation at high space‐time resolution is evaluated and compared with climate model simulations. Irregular subdaily fluctuations are the dominant component around the world, greater than variance of daily mean precipitation, and much greater than variance associated with the mean diurnal cycle of precipitation. Irregular subdaily fluctuations of precipitation are severely underestimated by models, even after taking into account the observational “error bars” implied by different space‐time resolutions. Variance of daily mean precipitation is less severely underestimated. Although mean diurnal cycle amplitudes vary among the models, this component is but a small part of total precipitation variance. Therefore, the total precipitation variance is significantly underestimated by models in general. Further exploration of model‐data discrepancies in precipitation at high‐time frequency may lead to new and useful climate model diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Laser Absorption Spectroscopy Measurements of Post-Shock Non-Equilibrium Species in the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube

The NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) is a unique facility capable of generating high enthalpy, shock-heated impulse gas flows representative of the kinetic and radiative conditions encountered by atmospheric entry vehicles. The facility maintains a successful history with emission spectroscopy, providing measurements of absolute radiance upon which various validation studies are anchored. The central objective of this work is to develop a comprehensive tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS) sensing capability to provide complementary experimental insights to existing emission techniques. More specifically, a fast-scanning TDLAS-based diagnostic targeting the cyano radical (CN) in the near-infrared(near-IR) near 926.6 nm is employed in mixtures of 2.2% CH4in N2by mole for a sweep of incident shock velocities ranging 3.0-5.5 km/s and fill pressures 0.3-1.15 Torr. Laser scan rates up to 500 kHz probe multiple absorption features to provide quantitative measurements of temperature and species number density profiles behind the incident shock. In all instances, the temperature trend is consistent between emission-inferred and TDLAS-inferred measurements. However, at the lower-velocity conditions, there is an appreciable offset between the Data Parallel Line Relaxation Code (DPLR) simulation and experimental measurements. A similar behavior is observed in number density profiles, with emission measurements providing inferences of the CN(B) and CN(A) state, while TDLAS measurements provide an additional inference of the CN(X) state. In the fast-scanned experiments, measurement inferred number densities suggest a much faster production of CN at early times than captured by the model. This discrepancy motivates ongoing, additional spectroscopic and kinetics CN experiments to resolve the accuracy of modeling assumptions.

Efaine Chang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced production of 60 Fe in massive stars

Massive stars are a major source of chemical elements in the cosmos, ejecting freshly produced nuclei through winds and core-collapse supernova explosions into the interstellar medium. Among the material ejected, long-lived radioisotopes, such as 60 Fe (iron) and 26 Al (aluminum), offer unique signs of active nucleosynthesis in our galaxy. There is a long-standing discrepancy between the observed 60 Fe/ 26 Al ratio by γ-ray telescopes and predictions from supernova models. This discrepancy has been attributed to uncertainties in the nuclear reaction networks producing 60 Fe, and one reaction in particular, the neutron-capture on 59 Fe. Here we present experimental results that provide a strong constraint on this reaction. We use these results to show that the production of 60 Fe in massive stars is higher than previously thought, further increasing the discrepancy between observed and predicted 60 Fe/ 26 Al ratios. The persisting discrepancy can therefore not be attributed to nuclear uncertainties, and points to issues in massive-star models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast—Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a wide range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosol, gas, and wet deposition. Seasonal changes in the circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration along the coast in winter, and minima in summer, suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. The performance of four climate models are assessed against satellite cloud retrievals. The models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2021

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast – Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosols, gases, and wet deposition.Seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration with maxima (minima) along the coast in winter (summer), suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. Compared with satellite cloud retrievals, four climate models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

David Painemal↗
NASA NTRS1991

Implications of C2H photochemistry on the modeling of C2 distributions in comets

Laboratory studies of the secondary photolysis of the C2H radical are summarized and used to explain some discrepancies between models of C2 emission in comets. These studies show that several states of the C2 radicals produced in the photolysis of C2H2 at 193 nm have bimodal rotational distributions when plotted as a Boltzmann diagram. They also establish that the C2 radicals are formed with varying degrees of vibrational excitation, so that if they are formed in a similar manner in comets, the C2 radicals must start out with this initial vibrational excitation.

Jackson, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Refined Use of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Snapshots to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions in the GOCART Model

Simulations of biomass burning (BB) emissions in global chemistry and aerosol transport models depend on external inventories, which provide location and strength of burning aerosol sources. Our previous work (Petrenko et al., 2012) shows that satellite snapshots of aerosol optical depth (AOD) near the emitted smoke plume can be used to constrain model-simulated AOD, and effectively, the assumed source strength. We now refine the satellite-snapshot method and investigate applying simple multiplicative emission correction factors for the widely used Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFEDv3) emission inventory can achieve regional-scale consistency between MODIS AOD snapshots and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The model and satellite AOD are compared over a set of more than 900 BB cases observed by the MODIS instrument during the 2004, and 2006-2008 biomass burning seasons. The AOD comparison presented here shows that regional discrepancies between the model and satellite are diverse around the globe yet quite consistent within most ecosystems. Additional analysis of including small fire emission correction shows the complimentary nature of correcting for source strength and adding missing sources, and also indicates that in some regions other factors may be significant in explaining model-satellite discrepancies. This work sets the stage for a larger intercomparison within the Aerosol Inter-comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) multi-model biomass burning experiment. We discuss here some of the other possible factors affecting the remaining discrepancies between model simulations and observations, but await comparisons with other AeroCom models to draw further conclusions.

aerosol optical depth↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improvements in Simulating a Mach 0.80 Transonic Truss-Braced Wing Configuration using the Spalart-Allmaras and k-ω SST Turbulence

Teams from the NASA Ames Research Centers (ARC) and Langley Research Center (LaRC) have been working on validating their computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results for the Boeing Mach 0.80 Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) configuration. Experimental data used for the validation were gathered from a test conducted of a 4.5% scale Mach 0.80 TTBW model in the NASA Ames Research Center 11-by 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel. The CFD simulations were initially run with both LAVA and USM3D Mixed Element solvers utilizing the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. A discrepancy was observed between CFD and experimental loads and moments ranging on average from 0.047 to 0.063 for lift coefficient, 16.5 to 27 in drag counts, and -0.02 to -0.032 for pitching moment, varying with the solver used. With introducing the refactored version of LAVA these values dropped to 0.034 to 0.047 for lift coefficient, 7.74 to 16.5 in drag counts, and lastly -0.012 to -0.02 for pitching moment. Based on findings from Boeing, who observed an improved comparison to experimental data when using the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model, the NASA teams conducted simulations with SST to investigate turbulence modeling sensitivities. OVERFLOW and USM3D V6 solvers were used for the comparison of SST and SA simulations. CFD results using the SST turbulence model demonstrate an improvement in matching with experimental CL values, reducing the discrepancies seen by 0.021-0.055 (62-93% reduction in discrepancy respective to the OVERFLOW and USM3D V6). The SST model has varying effects on CD, based on the solver / grid paradigm; for USM3D this prediction is only improved at higher angles of attack (above the cruise design point) resulting in a reduced discrepancy of 8.8–25 drag counts However, at the mid-to-low angles of attack, SST increases the CD discrepancy by 4-55 counts, increasing at lower angles of attack. For OVERFLOW this discrepancy only exists at the low angles of attack and maxes out at 10 counts of drag. Above α = 1.5° OVERFLOW SST reduces discrepancy by 9.3 drag counts on average.

AATT↗
NASA NTRS1976

USB environment measurements based on full-scale static engine ground tests

Flow turning parameters, static pressures, surface temperatures, surface fluctuating pressures and acceleration levels were measured in the environment of a full-scale upper surface blowing (USB) propulsive-lift test configuration. The test components included a flightworthy CF6-50D engine, nacelle and USB flap assembly utilized in conjunction with ground verification testing of the USAF YC-14 Advanced Medium STOL Transport propulsion system. Results, based on a preliminary analysis of the data, generally show reasonable agreement with predicted levels based on model data. However, additional detailed analysis is required to confirm the preliminary evaluation, to help delineate certain discrepancies with model data and to establish a basis for future flight test comparisons.

Sussman, M. B.↗