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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements and opportunities to improve bottom–up estimates of global wetland methane emissions

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH 4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH 4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH 4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 yr -1 ). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (~80 Tg CH 4 yr -1 ), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH 4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH 4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH 4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 ) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH 4 observations directed at wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

The formation and structure of iron-dominated planetesimals

Metal-rich asteroids and iron meteorites are considered core remnants of differentiated planetesimals and/or products of oxygen-depleted accretion. Investigating the origins of iron-rich planetesimals could provide key insights into planet formation mechanisms. Using differentiation models, we evaluate the interior structure and composition of representative-sized planetesimals (~200 km diameter), while varying oxygen fugacity and initial bulk meteoritic composition. Under the oxygen-poor conditions that likely existed early in the inner regions of the Solar System and other protoplanetary disks, core fractions remain relatively consistent across a range of bulk compositions (CI, H, EH, and CBa). Some of these cores could incorporate significant amounts of silicon (10–30 weight%) and explain the metal fractions of Fe-rich bodies in the absence of mantle stripping. Conversely, planetesimals forming under more oxidizing conditions, such as beyond snow lines, could exhibit smaller cores, enriched in carbon, sulfur (>1 wt%), and oxides. Sulfur-rich cores, like those formed from EH and H bulk compositions, could remain partly molten, sustain dynamos, and even drive sulfur-rich volcanism. Additionally, bodies with high carbon contents, such as CI compositions, can form graphitic outer layers. These variations highlight the importance of initial formation conditions in shaping planetesimal structures. Future missions, such as NASA’s Psyche mission, offer an opportunity to measure the relative abundances of key elements (Fe, Ni, Si, and S) necessary to distinguish among formation scenarios and structure models for Fe-rich and reduced planetesimals.

meteorites↗
DOE OSTI2026

CHESS 2025: Location data for field observations and sampling

This dataset represents geolocation data associated with field observations and sampling from the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) during June and July of 2025. Location data were collected using Trimble DA2 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers with Trimble Catalyst 2 centimeter (cm) positioning service and the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri) Field Maps mobile app. Files in this data package include meadow site polygons, shrub site polygons, tree site polygons and stem point locations, and Leaf Area Index (LAI) plot polygons (.geojson). The geojson files can be opened with open-source GIS software (e.g, QGIS). A csv file is also provided with point coordinates for all locations. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgment: Field and remote-sensing data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). This work was also supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
DOE OSTI2026

Aerosol effective radiative forcing increases Earth’s energy imbalance in recent decades

Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, has risen markedly over the last two decades. Greenhouse gas forcing, aerosol forcing, and cloud feedback all contribute to this increase. However, the role of aerosol forcing, particularly effective radiative forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF ACI ), remains highly uncertain and closely intertwined with cloud feedback. Here, we estimate shortwave ERF ACI using satellite observations and show its importance as a contributor to the EEI increase between 2003 and 2023. ERF ACI exhibits a significant increasing trend of 0.33 Wm −2 /decade averaged over oceans between 60°S and 60°N. The increasing trend of ERF ACI stems from a global decline in cloud droplet number concentration driven by decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is of similar magnitude as the combined instantaneous forcing trend from greenhouse gases and aerosol-radiation interactions. Our results may reduce the gap between the simulated and observed shortwave contribution to EEI trends while implying a weak shortwave cloud feedback. They also suggest a stronger aerosol forcing than the multi-model mean.

Yuan, Tianle [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward a more realistic representation of surface albedo in NASA CERES-derived surface radiative fluxes

Accurate multidecadal radiative flux records are vital to understand Arctic amplification and constrain climate model uncertainties. Uncertainty in the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES)-derived irradiances is larger over sea ice than any other surface type and comes from several sources. The year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic provides a rare opportunity to explore uncertainty in CERES-derived radiative fluxes. First, a systematic and statistically robust assessment of surface shortwave and longwave fluxes was conducted using in situ measurements from MOSAiC flux stations. The CERES Synoptic 1degree (SYN1deg) product overestimates the downwelling shortwave flux by +11.40 Wm –2 and underestimates the upwelling shortwave flux by –15.70 Wm –2 and downwelling longwave fluxes by –12.58 Wm –2 at the surface during summer. In addition, large differences are found in the upwelling longwave flux when the surface approaches the melting point (approximately 0°C). The biases in downwelling shortwave and longwave fluxes suggest that the atmosphere represented in CERES is too optically thin. The large negative bias in upwelling shortwave flux can be attributed in large part to lower surface albedo (–0.15) in satellite footprint relative to surface sensors. Additionally, the results show that the spectral surface albedo used in SYN1deg overestimates albedo in visible and mid-infrared bands. A series of radiative transfer model perturbation experiments are performed to quantify the factors contributing to the differences. The CERES-MOSAiC broadband albedo differences (approximately 20 Wm –2 ) explain a larger portion of the upwelling shortwave flux difference than the spectral albedo shape differences (approximately 3 Wm –2 ). In addition, the differences between perturbation experiments using hourly and monthly MOSAiC surface albedo suggest that approximately 25% of the sea ice surface albedo variability is explained by factors not correlated with daily sea ice concentration variability. Biases in net shortwave and longwave flux can be reduced to less than half by adjusting both albedo and cloud inputs toward observed values. The results indicate that improvements in the surface albedo and cloud data would substantially reduce the uncertainty in the Arctic surface radiation budget derived from CERES data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Region-Growing Segmentation Approach to Delineating Timberline from Satellite-Derived Tree Fractional Cover Products

Timberline marks the transitions from continuous forests to sparse forests and tundra landscapes. As the spatial distribution and dynamics of timberline are closely associated with regional energy and carbon balance, mapping timberline is important to a wide range of environmental and ecological studies. However, current timberline delineation approaches remain under-developed. We proposed an automatic timberline delineation method based on a seeded region-growing segmentation technique and satellite-derived products of tree fractional cover. We applied our approach to the West Siberian Plain and Alaska treeline regions as defined by the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for the accurate delineation of the timberlines that spatially align well with very-high-resolution satellite images. Based on the delineated timberlines, we find regional-scale tree encroachment to be not as substantial as previously reported. The proposed approach can be applied to understanding climate-induced forest responses and inform forest management practices.

Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote Sensing of Live Fuel Moisture for Wildfires Using SMAP Satellite Observations

Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) is a critical parameter for wildfire risk assessment, traditionally measured by labor-intensive field sampling. However, sampled LFM data are influenced by site-specific factors, such as local vegetation types and plant traits, and are often collected retrospectively after wildfire events, making it difficult to obtain pre-fire data for predictive applications. Here, we evaluate the relationship between LFM and Vegetation Water Content (VWC) and Soil Moisture (SM) retrieved from SMAP L-band brightness temperature using the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) approach. The MEP-retrieved VWC exhibited strong correlation with in situ measurements of LFM ( r > 0.6) in the Western U.S. The integration of high-resolution vegetation coverage data enhances the detection of sub-grid vegetation heterogeneity. This study demonstrates the operational potential of remote sensing derived VWC as a scalable proxy of LFM, supporting its application in regional assessment of wildfire risk.

Cho, Kyeungwoo [Georgia Institute of Technology, A↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regime-based aerosol–cloud interactions from CALIPSO-MODIS and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) over the Eastern North Atlantic

This study investigates aerosol-cloud interactions in marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds using an advanced deep-learning-driven synoptic-regime-based framework, combining satellite data (CALIPSO vertically resolved aerosol extinction and MODIS cloud properties) with 1° nudged Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) simulation over the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA; ∼10°×10°, 2006–2014). The E3SMv2 captures observed seasonal variations in cloud droplet number concentrations (N d ) and liquid water path (LWP), though it systematically underestimates N d . We then partition ENA meteorology into four synoptic regimes (Pre-Trough, Post-Trough, Ridge, Trough) via a deep-learning clustering of ERA5 reanalysis fields, enabling regime-dependent aerosol-cloud interactions analyses. Both satellite and E3SMv2 exhibit an inverted-V LWP-N d relationship. In Post-Trough and Ridge regimes, the satellite shows stronger negative LWP-N d sensitivities than in Pre-Trough regime. The Trough regime displays a muted satellite LWP response. In comparison, the model predicts more exaggerated LWP responses across regimes, with LWP increasing too quickly at low N d and decreasing more sharply at high N d , especially in Pre-Trough and Trough regimes. These exaggerated model LWP sensitivities may stem from uncertainties in representing drizzle processes, entrainment, and turbulent mixing. As for N d susceptibility to aerosols, N d increases with MBL aerosol extinction in both datasets, but the simulated aerosol-cloud interactions appear oversensitive to meteorological conditions. Overall, E3SMv2 better captures aerosol effects under regimes that favor stratiform clouds (Post-Trough, Ridge), but performance deteriorates for regimes with deeper, dynamically complex clouds (Trough), highlighting the need for improved representations of those cloud processes in climate models.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Physics behind Precipitation Onset Bias in CMIP6 Models: The Pseudo-Entrainment Diagnostic and Trade-Offs between Lapse Rate and Humidity

Conditional instability and the buoyancy of plumes drive moist convection but have a variety of representations in model convective schemes. Vertical thermodynamic structure information from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites and reanalysis (ERA5), satellite-derived precipitation (TRMM3b42), and diagnostics relevant for plume buoyancy are used to assess climate models. Previous work has shown that CMIP6 models represent moist convective processes more accurately than their CMIP5 counterparts. However, certain biases in convective onset remain pervasive among generations of CMIP modeling efforts. Here we diagnose these biases in a cohort of nine CMIP6 models with sub-daily output, assessing conditional instability in profiles of equivalent potential temperature θ e and saturation equivalent potential temperature θ es in comparison to a plume model with different mixing assumptions. Most models capture qualitative aspects of the θ es vertical structure, including a substantial decrease with height in the lower free troposphere associated with the entrainment of subsaturated air. We define a “pseudo-entrainment” diagnostic that combines subsaturation and a θ es measure of conditional instability similar to what entrainment would produce under the small-buoyancy approximation. This captures the trade-off between larger θ es lapse rates (entrainment of dry air) and small subsaturation (permits positive buoyancy despite high entrainment). This pseudo-entrainment diagnostic is also a reasonable indicator of the critical value of integrated buoyancy for precipitation onset. Models with poor θ e /θ es structure (those using variants of the Tiedtke Scheme) or low entrainment runs of CAM5, and models with low subsaturation, such as NASA-GISS, lie outside the observational range in this diagnostic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NOAA Arctic Report Card 2024 : Tundra Greenness

The Arctic tundra biome occupies Earth’s northernmost lands, covering a 5.1 million km 2 area that encircles the Arctic Ocean and is bound to the south by the boreal forest biome. Arctic tundra ecosystems are experiencing profound changes as vegetation and underlying permafrost soils are strongly influenced by rising air temperatures and the rapid decline of sea ice (see essays Surface Air Temperature and Sea Ice). By the late 1990s, an increase in the productivity of tundra vegetation became evident in global satellite observations, a phenomenon that continued and soon became known as “the greening of the Arctic.” Arctic greening is dynamically linked with Earth’s changing climate, seasonal snow, permafrost, and sea-ice cover, and remains a focus of multidisciplinary scientific research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗
DOE OSTI2024

Process Modeling of Aerosol‐Cloud Interaction in Summertime Precipitating Shallow Cumulus Over the Western North Atlantic

Abstract Process modeling of Aerosol‐cloud interaction (ACI) is essential to bridging gaps between observational analysis and climate modeling of aerosol effects in the Earth system and eventually reducing climate projection uncertainties. In this study, we examine ACI in summertime precipitating shallow cumuli observed during the Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). Aerosols and precipitating shallow cumuli were extensively observed with in‐situ and remote‐sensing instruments during two research flight cases on 02 June and 07 June, respectively, during the ACTIVATE summer 2021 deployment phase. We perform observational analysis and large‐eddy simulation (LES) of aerosol effect on precipitating cumulus in these two cases. Given the measured aerosol size distributions and meteorological conditions, LES is able to reproduce the observed cloud properties by aircraft such as liquid water content (LWC), cloud droplet number concentration ( N c ) and effective radius r eff . However, it produces smaller liquid water path (LWP) and larger N c compared to the satellite retrievals. Both 02 and 07 June cases are over warm waters of the Gulf Stream and have a cloud top height over 3 km, but the 07 June case is more polluted and has larger LWC. We find that the N a ‐induced LWP adjustment is dominated by precipitation feedback for the 2 June precipitating case and there is no clear entrainment feedback in both cases. An increase of cloud fraction due to a decrease of aerosol number concentration is also shown in the simulations for the 02 June case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Galaxy Clusters Discovered via the Thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich Effect in the 500-square-degree SPTpol Survey

We present a catalog of 689 galaxy cluster candidates detected at significance ξ > 4 via their thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect signature in 95 and 150 GHz data from the 500-square-degree SPTpol survey. We use optical and infrared data from the Dark Energy Camera and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and Spitzer satellites, to confirm 544 of these candidates as clusters with ~ 94% purity. The sample has an approximately redshift-independent mass threshold at redshift z > 0.25. The confirmed sample spans 1.5 × 10 14 < M 500 c < 9 × 10 14 M ⊙ /h 70 and 0.03 < z ≲ 1.6 in mass and redshift, respectively, with a median mass of 2.5×10 14 M ⊙ /h 70 and median redshift z = 0.7; 21% of the confirmed clusters are at z > 1. We use external radio data from the Sydney University Molonglo Sky Survey (SUMSS) to estimate contamination to the SZ signal from synchrotron sources. The contamination reduces the recovered ξ by a median value of 0.032, or ~ 0.8% of the ξ = 4 threshold value, and ~ 7% of candidates have a predicted contamination greater than Δξ = 1. With the exception of a small number of systems (< 1%), an analysis of clusters detected in single-frequency 95 and 150 GHz data shows no significant contamination of the SZ signal by emission from dusty or synchrotron sources. This cluster sample, representing the deepest SZ-selected cluster sample to date, will be a key component in upcoming astrophysical and cosmological analyses of clusters. In addition to the cluster catalog, we also release the millimeter-wave maps and associated data products used to produce this sample. These maps have depths of 5.3 (11.7) µK CMB -arcmin at 150 (95) GHz and an effective angular resolution of 1. '2 (1. '7). The SPTpol products are available at https:// pole.uchicago.edu/public/data/sptpol_500d_clusters/index.html, and the NASA LAMBDA website. An interactive sky server with the SPTpol maps and Dark Energy Survey data release 2 images is also available at NCSA https://skyviewer.ncsa.illinois.edu.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-sensor Observations of a High-velocity Fireball over the South Atlantic on 2026 April 1

A high-velocity fireball was detected over the South Atlantic (41.9°S, 54.7°W) on 2026 April 1 at 02:13:14 UTC by U.S. Government (USG) sensors, with peak brightness at 90.5 km altitude. The event was well-observed from geostationary orbit by two civilian lightning imagers with near-orthogonal geometry, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-East Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites Meteosat Third Generation Imager 1 Lightning Imager, and it produced low-frequency acoustic signatures. The GLM measured a total radiated energy of 2.4 × 10 10 J, corresponding to a calculated impact energy of 0.086 kt TNT equivalent. Stereoscopic triangulation of the imager tracks yields an independent pre-atmospheric velocity of ~57 km s −1 , some 18% below the USG-reported value. Because orbital provenance is acutely sensitive to the entry velocity, whose reported uncertainty could be substantial, this discrepancy is notable. We document the multi-sensor record and identify the analysis required to assess provenance, which a subsequent study will present.

Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce [Sandia National Lab. (↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Hunga Volcanic Eruption Atmospheric Impacts Report

On 15 January 2022 a highly explosive eruption of the Hunga volcano occurred in the Kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific Ocean (175°24’ W, 20°33’ S). The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 eruption originated from a shallow submarine vent, making it distinct from large subaerial eruptions of recent decades (e.g., 1982 El Chichón, 1991 Mt. Pinatubo). In particular, seawater enhanced explosivity and dampened sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions. The eruption was the culmination of ~1 month of precursory activity; however, the timing and size of the eruption were unexpected, partly due to the challenges of monitoring submarine volcanoes. The stratospheric hydration caused by the eruption was unprecedented in magnitude, altitude, and duration in the satellite record. This Executive Summary reflects the current assessment of the Hunga eruption and its impact on the climate system. We report key observations of the eruption and its aftermath, as well as simulations of its impact by global chemistry-climate models. The Hunga eruption had an unprecedented impact on the stratosphere and mesosphere due to the plume height and large water content, which increased the global stratospheric water vapour burden by 10%. Most of this water has remained in the atmosphere into 2025. However, Hunga’s net impact on surface climate was small compared to that of earlier large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, due to limited sulfate aerosol loading in the stratosphere and the high altitude of the water vapour injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark of the Fe xvv 𝓡 ratio in photoionized plasma during eclipse of Centaurus X-3 with XRISM/Resolve

The $\mathcal {R}$ ratio is a useful diagnostic of the X-ray emitting astrophysical plasmas and is defined as the intensity ratio of the forbidden over the inter-combination lines in the K$\alpha$ line complex of He-like ions. The value is altered by excitation processes (electron impact or UV photoexcitation) from the metastable upper level of the forbidden line, thereby constraining the electron density or UV field intensity. The diagnostic has been applied mostly in electron density constraints in collisionally ionized plasmas using low-Z elements, as was originally proposed for the Sun (Gabriel & Jordan, 1969a, MNRAS, 145, 241), but it can also be used in photoionized plasmas. To make use of this diagnostic, we need to know its value in the limit of no excitation of metastables ($\mathcal {R}_{0}$), which depends on the element, how the plasmas are formed, how the lines are propagated, and the spectral resolution affecting line blending principally with satellite lines from Li-like ions. We benchmark $\mathcal {R}_0$ for photoionized plasmas by comparing calculations using radiative transfer codes and observation data taken with the Resolve X-ray microcalorimeter onboard XRISM. We use the Fe xxv He$\alpha$ line complex of the photo-ionized plasma in Centaurus X-3 observed during eclipse, in which the plasma is expected to be in the limit of no metastable excitation. The measured $\mathcal {R} = 0.65 \pm 0.08$ is consistent with the value calculated using xstar for the plasma parameters derived from other line ratios of the spectrum. We conclude that the $\mathcal {R}$ ratio diagnostic can be used for high-Z elements such as Fe in photoionized plasmas, which has wide applications in plasmas around compact objects at various scales.

X-rays: binaries↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spectroscopic diagnostics of high-temperature plasma in stellar coronae using Fe XXIV-XXIV K-shell lines with XRISM

The RS CVn type binary star GT Muscae was observed during its quiescence using the Resolve X-ray microcalorimeter spectrometer onboard XRISM. The main and satellite lines of the Fe XXIV-XXIV K-shell transitions were resolved for the first time from stellar sources. We conducted line ratio analysis to investigate any deviations from collisional ionization equilibrium and Maxwell electron energy distribution with a single temperature. By using five combinations of direct excitation lines and dielectronic recombination satellite lines in three line complexes (Fe He$\alpha$, Ly$\alpha$, and He$\beta$), we found that the plasma is well characterized by two-temperature thermal plasmas with temperatures of 1.7 and 4.3 keV, which is consistent with thermal broadening of Fe xxv, and the broad-band fitting results in the 1.7–10 keV band. Other forms of deviation from a single-temperature plasma, such as different ionization and electron temperatures or the $\kappa$ distribution for the electron energy distributions, are not favored, which is reasonable for stellar coronae at quiescence. This study demonstrates the utility of the Fe K-shell line ratio diagnostics to probe plasma conditions using X-ray microcalorimeters.

X-rays: stars↗