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NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

risk assessment↗

NASA NTRS1996

Radar Reconnaissance of Near-Earth Objects at the Dawn of the Next Millenium

From Intro.: Radar, the most powerful groundbased technique for post-discovery investigation of NEOs, can contribute a great deal to their exploration as well as to identification and mitigation of hazardous objects. My intentions in this article are to review the current state of NEO radar reconnaissance, examine the imminent prospects for this work as upgraded instrumentation becomes available, and propose construction of a next-generation radar telescope that, unlike any existing radar instrument, would be optimized for, and dedicated to, NEO radar.

radar near-Earth objects NEO NEO radar↗

NASA NTRS1994

(abstract) Asteroid Radar Astronomy at Goldstone in the 1990s

Since 1990, much effort has been devoted to optimizing Goldstone's capability to study near-Earth objects (NEOs). Three different configurations are now available. The nominal system on the 70-m antenna (DSS 14) uses separate feed horns for transmitting and receiving, and the 15-plus seconds required for transmit-to-receive switching renders the system useless for targets much closer than about 0.025 AU (about 10 lunar distances, about 25 seconds of echo time delay) and unwieldy even for targets twice that far. However, an additional, recently installed single horn system shrinks switching time to about 5 seconds, letting DSS 14 observe NEOs as close as about 5 lunar distances. Closer targets will require two-station observations, with DSS 14 transmitting continuously while DSS 13, a 34-m antenna 22 km away, receives. That configuration, first used for Toutatis, will also be required for delay-Doppler imaging that places thousands of pixels on any NEO whose rotation period P(h) and echo roundtrip time delay RTT (s) satisfy P > RTT. Between January 1990 and June 1994, the Goldstone radar has detected 11 asteroids. During the next 2 years, seven asteroids are scheduled for Goldstane observations. After completion of the Arecibo upgrade, Goldstone will play an important complementary role to that much more sensitive instrument.

asteroids radar Goldstone delay-Doppler imaging Ar↗

NASA NTRS2012

Modeling and Simulation of Anchoring Processess for Small Body Exploration

This paper describes recent work done in modeling and simulation of anchoring processes in granular media, with applications to anchoring on a Near Earth Object (NEO), where the forces due to interactions with the regolith are much stronger than the local surface gravity field. This effort is part of a larger systems engineering capability developed at JPL to answer key questions, validate requirements, conduct key system and mission trades,and evaluate performance and risk related to NEO operations for any proposed human or robotic missions to a NEO.

anchoring↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Optimal Mitigation Strategy Against the Asteroid Impact Threat with Short Warning Time

This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results.

NEO Impact threat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reliable p K a Prediction through Efficient Incorporation of Anharmonicity within the Nuclear–Electronic Orbital Framework

Accurate pK a prediction is critical for understanding chemical reactivity and molecular properties across a wide range of applications. Computational approaches usually invoke a harmonic treatment of the vibrational modes for zero-point energies, as well as thermal and entropic contributions. Herein, we present a general protocol for relative pK a prediction that incorporates the significant anharmonic effects using nuclear–electronic orbital (NEO) theory. This protocol is validated against experimental data for a range of molecules in acetonitrile, including protonated nitrogen bases, nitrophenols, anilines, and diamines, as well as cobalt electrocatalysts. For simple acids, the NEO approach offers only a slight improvement over conventional density functional theory with the standard harmonic vibrational treatment, whereas for hydrogen-bonded acids, the NEO approach offers more significantly improved performance at a comparable computational cost. This accessible methodology provides a practical route for accurate pKa prediction in challenging systems and is extendable to related thermodynamic properties such as hydricities and proton-coupled redox potentials.

Density functional theory↗

DOE OSTI2024

Principles of paralog-specific targeted protein degradation engaging the C-degron E3 KLHDC2

Abstract PROTAC® (proteolysis-targeting chimera) molecules induce proximity between an E3 ligase and protein-of-interest (POI) to target the POI for ubiquitin-mediated degradation. Cooperative E3-PROTAC-POI complexes have potential to achieve neo-substrate selectivity beyond that established by POI binding to the ligand alone. Here, we extend the collection of ubiquitin ligases employable for cooperative ternary complex formation to include the C-degron E3 KLHDC2. Ligands were identified that engage the C-degron binding site in KLHDC2, subjected to structure-based improvement, and linked to JQ1 for BET-family neo-substrate recruitment. Consideration of the exit vector emanating from the ligand engaged in KLHDC2’s U-shaped degron-binding pocket enabled generation of SJ46421, which drives formation of a remarkably cooperative, paralog-selective ternary complex with BRD3 BD2 . Meanwhile, screening pro-drug variants enabled surmounting cell permeability limitations imposed by acidic moieties resembling the KLHDC2-binding C-degron. Selectivity for BRD3 compared to other BET-family members is further manifested in ubiquitylation in vitro, and prodrug version SJ46420-mediated degradation in cells. Selectivity is also achieved for the ubiquitin ligase, overcoming E3 auto-inhibition to engage KLHDC2, but not the related KLHDC1, KLHDC3, or KLHDC10 E3s. In sum, our study establishes neo-substrate-specific targeted protein degradation via KLHDC2, and provides a framework for developing selective PROTAC protein degraders employing C-degron E3 ligases.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constrained nuclear–electronic orbital method for periodic density functional theory: Application to H 2 chemisorption on Si(001) surfaces

The nuclear–electronic orbital (NEO) method provides a powerful computational framework for incorporating nuclear quantum effects (NQE) in electronic structure calculations beyond the Born–Oppenheimer approximation. By incorporating additional constraints to the position operator on quantum particles like protons, the NEO method enables calculation of effective potential that accounts for NQE. Here, in this work, we present a new constrained NEO (cNEO) formulation for density functional theory (cNEO-DFT) calculations in the context of extended periodic systems. Using the nudged elastic band method, we discuss an application of the cNEO-DFT approach to studying the adsorption of a hydrogen molecule on the Si(001) surfaces. The calculation shows how NQE impacts the reaction energetics. The proton density changes are computed along the reaction pathways. This work demonstrates the capability of the new cNEO-DFT method to study a wide range of chemical processes, such as surface reactions where the quantum nature of light atoms like protons is non-negligible.

Chemical processes↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lightcurves, Rotation Periods, and Colors for Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s First Asteroid Discoveries

We present lightcurves, rotation periods, and colors for the first asteroid discoveries made with the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. These are the first science results derived from the 2103 asteroid discoveries released as part of the Rubin First Look (RFL) media event on 2025 June 23, in which the first LSST Camera commissioning images were released. The ∼340,000 observations in which the discoveries were made span nine nights between 2025 April 21 and May 5. With a limiting single-epoch 5σ depth of ∼23–25 mag and dense temporal sampling under an irregular, commissioning-driven cadence, the RFL observations provide an ideal test bed for determination of rotation periods, including sensitivity to rapid rotation. We model lightcurves and derive rotation periods and colors for the ∼2000 objects. We find 75 main-belt asteroids (MBAs) and one near-Earth object (NEO) with reliable rotation periods spanning 0.031–21.3 hr and a photometric precision in the range of 0.05–0.15 mag. We find 19 superfast rotators with periods shorter than the 2.2 hr spin barrier. Rubin-discovered MBA 2025 MN 45 is the fastest-rotating d > 0.5 km known asteroid with a rotation period of 1.9 minutes; along with NEO 2025 MJ 71 (1.9 minutes) and Rubin-discovered MBAs 2025 MK 41 (3.8 minutes), 2025 MV 71 (13 minutes), and 2025 MG 56 (16 minutes), these five super- to ultrafast rotators join a couple of NEOs as the fastest-spinning subkilometer asteroids known. As this study demonstrates, even in early commissioning, Rubin is successfully probing a previously sparsely sampled region of the subkilometer size−spin rate regime for MBAs.

Greenstreet, Sarah [NSF National Optical-Infrared ↗

NASA NTRS1997

Radar Reconnaissance of Near-Earth-Objects at the Dawn of the Next Millennium

Radar, the most powerful ground-based technique for post discovery investigation of NEO's (near-Earth objects), can contribute a great deal to their exploration as well as to identification and mitigation of hazardous objects. My intentions in this article are to review the current state of NEO radar reconnaissance, examine the imminent prospects for this work as upgraded instrumentation becomes available, and propose construction of a next-generation radar telescope that, unlike any existing radar instrument, would be optimized for, and dedicated to, NEO radar.

Ostro, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Thermal Studies of Near Earth Objects

In this proposal, we seek to apply the optical/thermal method to the measurement of the diameters and albedos of a large sample of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Whereas main-belt asteroids have been studied in large numbers, principally using thermal detections from the IRAS satellite, relatively few thermal observations of NEOs have been secured. This program capitalizes on our access to large telescopes and imaging thermal IR detectors in pursuit of the definitive set of albedo data on the NEOs.

Jewitt, David↗

NASA NTRS2003

Physical Characterization of the Near-Earth Object Population

This program seeks to address the fundamental question: What are the relationships between asteroids, comets, and meteorites? To answer this question, we are studying the population of asteroids near the Earth which likely contain both asteroids and extinct comets and which is the immediate source for meteorites. An analysis of new and existing visible wavelength spectral data for more than 100 (Near-Earth Objects) NEOs, and Keck albedo data for more than 20 NEOs is underway. New asteroid-meteorite links are being found, the NEO population and hazard is being characterized, and the extinct comet component is being constrained. These results are contained within the following publication work during the current period: 1 book, 2 book chapters, 1 published paper, 2 papers submitted, 2 papers in preparation, 1 Ph. D. thesis in preparation, and 7 meeting abstracts/presentations.

Binzel, Richard P.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Time course of myosin heavy chain transitions in neonatal rats: importance of innervation and thyroid state

During the postnatal period, rat limb muscles adapt to weight bearing via the replacement of embryonic (Emb) and neonatal (Neo) myosin heavy chains (MHCs) by the adult isoforms. Our aim was to characterize this transition in terms of the six MHC isoforms expressed in skeletal muscle and to determine the importance of innervation and thyroid hormone status on the attainment of the adult MHC phenotype. Neonatal rats were made hypothyroid via propylthiouracil (PTU) injection. In normal and PTU subgroups, leg muscles were unilaterally denervated at 15 days of age. The MHC profiles of plantaris (PLN) and soleus (Sol) muscles were determined at 7, 14, 23, and 30 days postpartum. At day 7, the Sol MHC profile was 55% type I, 30% Emb, and 10% Neo; in the PLN, the pattern was 60% Neo and 25% Emb. By day 30 the Sol and PLN had essentially attained an adult MHC profile in the controls. PTU augmented slow MHC expression in the Sol, whereas in the PLN it markedly repressed IIb MHC by retaining neonatal MHC expression. Denervation blunted the upregulation of IIb in the PLN and of Type I in the Sol and shifted the pattern to greater expression of IIa and IIx MHCs in both muscles. In contrast to previous observations, these findings collectively suggest that both an intact thyroid and innervation state are obligatory for the attainment of the adult MHC phenotype, particularly in fast-twitch muscles.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2005

Continued Astrometric Follow-up Of Near-Earth Objects

As the grant periods overlapped, some of this information below will also be present on the previous final report. During the period May 1 2004 to April 30 2005, approximately 100 NEOs fainter than V = 20 were observed on separate nights from the 1.2-m telescope at Mt. Hopkins. Additionally, a few comets were targeted, including astrometric support of the Deep Impact mission by observing comet P/Tempel 1. Kyle Smalley was again employed as an independent contractor, and he was trained in use of the telescope, performed several remote observing runs on his own, and has now begun critical software support of the observing program. Code to automatically operate the telescope, given a target list, is approximately 90% done. During the first observing run scheduled in late September or early October, this code will be tested at on the telescope. It is probable that the 1.2m telescope will be run automatically all night without any interruption from the observer for anything during this time. Additional work on selecting which NEO targets to observe is progressing, with a beta-release of a simple target selection web page. Additionally, two-night objects with the potential of being NEOs have been extracted on a routine basis during this last grant cycle. These will also be added to a web page to facilitate additional astrometric follow-up.

Spahr, Timothy↗

NASA NTRS2007

Scientific Exploration of Near-Earth Objects via the Crew Exploration Vehicle

The concept of a crewed mission to a near-Earth object (NEO) has been previously analyzed several times in the past. A more in depth feasibility study has been sponsored by the Advanced Projects Office within NASA's Constellation Program to examine the ability of a Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) to support a mission to a NEO. The national mission profile would involve a crew of 2 or 3 astronauts on a 90 to 120 day mission, which would include a 7 to 14 day stay for proximity operations at the target NEO.

Abell, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

NEOCAM: Near Earth Object Chemical Analysis Mission: Bridging the Gulf between Telescopic Observations and the Chemical and Mineralogical Compositions of Asteroids or Diogenes A: Diagnostic Observation of the Geology of Near Earth Spectrally-Classified Asteroids

Studies of meteorites have yielded a wealth of scientific information based on highly detailed chemical and isotopic studies possible only in sophisticated terrestrial laboratories. Telescopic studies have revealed an enormous (greater than 10(exp 5)) number of physical objects ranging in size from a few tens of meters to several hundred kilometers, orbiting not only in the traditional asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter but also throughout the inner solar system. Many of the largest asteroids are classed into taxonomic groups based on their observed spectral properties and are designated as C, D. X, S or V types (as well as a wide range in sub-types). These objects are certainly the sources far the meteorites in our laboratories, but which asteroids are the sources for which meteorites? Spectral classes are nominally correlated to the chemical composition and physical characteristics of the asteroid itself based on studies of the spectral changes induced in meteorites due to exposure to a simulated space environment. While laboratory studies have produced some notable successes (e.g. the identification of the asteroid Vesta as the source of the H, E and D meteorite classes), it is unlikely that we have samples of each asteroidal spectral type in our meteorite collection. The correlation of spectral type and composition for many objects will therefore remain uncertain until we can return samples of specific asteroid types to Earth for analyses. The best candidates for sample return are asteroids that already come close to the Earth. Asteroids in orbit near 1 A.U. have been classified into three groups (Aten, Apollo & Amor) based on their orbital characteristics. These Near Earth Objects (NEOs) contain representatives of virtually all spectral types and sub-types of the asteroid population identified to date. Because of their close proximity to Earth, NEOs are prime targets for asteroid missions such as the NEAR-Shoemaker NASA Discovery Mission to Eros and the Japanese Hyabusa Mission to Itokawa. Also due to their close proximity to Earth, NEOs constitute the most likely set of celestial objects that will impact us in the relatively near future.

Nuth, Joseph A.↗