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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Manhattan Project Nuclear Science and Technology Developments at Los Alamos: A Special Issue of Nuclear Technology

The year 2020 marked the 75th anniversary of the Trinity experiment, the world’s first nuclear explosion, on July 16, 1945, near Alamogordo, New Mexico. Trinity was a vital proof step toward the culmination of the Manhattan Project and the end of World War II. The technical accomplishments made by scientists and engineers from the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada (some originating in Germany, Hungary, Italy, France, and other countries) were recognized by many events in 2020, including a visit to New Mexico’s Los Alamos National Laboratory by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) dignitaries; historical documentaries. The importance of Trinity as a foundational accomplishment for the broad nuclear science and engineering community is clear; indeed, New Mexico’s chapter of the American Nuclear Society (ANS) is referred to as the Trinity Section. The events surrounding Trinity have even entered into high culture with recent performances of John Adams’s opera Doctor Atomic in San Francisco, Amsterdam, Chicago, New York, and Santa Fe.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Chloride Salt Mixture for a Fusion Blanket

Deuterium-tritium fusion reactors cannot operate for a significant period without a closed tritium fuel cycle, according to a recent National Academies of Sciences (NAS) report on bringing fusion reactors to the US electrical grid. This fact places breeder blankets as one of the foundational systems for self-sustained fusion reactor operation. The typical functional requirements for a breeder blanket system include producing tritium, absorbing kinetic energy, transporting thermal energy, and being environmentally attractive. State-of-the-art research on liquid blankets has converged to primarily focus on (LiF) 2 and BeF 2 (FLiBe) molten salts and a metallic eutectic of lead and lithium (PbLi), but “virtually all of the technologies related to the tritium fuel cycle are at a low technological readiness level”. This work sought to explore optimum blanket configurations as it aligned with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) FY 2023 Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program’s research priority of developing and expanding the current understanding of fusion blanket science and technology. This purpose of this work was to address ORNL research priorities and NAS recommendations by investigating novel liquid blanket materials that could provide self-sustaining operation and draw on experience from research on molten salts used for advanced fission reactors, concentrated solar, and thermal energy storage. The hypothesis when proposing this research was that there could be chloride-based blanket designs that can exceed the tritium breeding ratios of (FLiBe) molten salt blankets while reducing the use of Be (FLiBe), avoiding the generation of HF (FLiBe), and minimizing magnetohydrodynamic (MHD)-perturbed flow fields (PbLi). The fastest and most cost-effective path to deploying liquid fusion breeder blankets could be from maximizing the synergistic technological overlap between fusion, fission, concentrated solar, and thermal energy storage industries.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Section 3 Reporting: Preserve America

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is a multidisciplinary laboratory with seven Nobel Prize-winning discoveries, 37 R&D 100 Awards, and countless advances in science and technology. For over 75 years, the Laboratory has played a leading role in the Department of Energy (DOE) Science and Technology mission and continues to contribute to the DOE’s missions in energy resources, environmental quality, and national security. The Laboratory is operated and managed by Brookhaven Science Associates (BSA), which was founded by the Research Foundation for the State University of New York on behalf of Stony Brook University, and Battelle, a non-profit applied science and technology organization. BNL is committed to longstanding partnerships with researchers, academic institutions, industry, students, teachers, and the surrounding community. BNL is located near the center of Suffolk County on Long Island, New York within Brookhaven Township, about 60 miles east of New York City. Most of BNL’s principal facilities are located near the center of the 5,265-acre (8.23 square mile) site (Figure 1). The developed area encompasses approximately 1,820 acres, consisting of: ▪ 500 acres originally developed by the Army (as part of WW II Camp Upton) and still used for offices and other operational buildings. ▪ 200 acres occupied by large, specialized research facilities. ▪ 520 acres occupied by outlying facilities, such as the Sewage Treatment Plant, research agricultural fields, housing facilities, and fire breaks. ▪ 400 acres of roads, parking lots, and connecting areas. ▪ 200 acres developed for the Long Island Solar Farm. The balance of the site, approximately 3,400 acres, is largely wooded and represents a native pine barrens ecosystem. In November 2000, DOE set aside 530 acres of undeveloped land at BNL as the Upton Ecological and Research Reserve. The Upton Reserve preserves this portion of the pine barrens ecosystem and provides an area for ecological research and education activities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

ToPolyAgent: AI agents for coarse-grained bead-spring topological polymer simulations

We introduce ToPolyAgent, a multi-agent AI framework for performing coarse-grained molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of topological polymers through natural language instructions. By integrating large language models (LLMs) with domain-specific computational tools, ToPolyAgent supports both interactive and autonomous simulation workflows across diverse polymer architectures, including linear, ring, brush, and star polymers, as well as dendrimers. The system consists of four LLM-powered agents: a Config Agent for generating initial polymer–solvent configurations, a Simulation Agent for executing LAMMPS-based MD simulations and conformational analyses, a Report Agent for compiling markdown reports, and a Workflow Agent for streamlined autonomous operations. Interactive mode incorporates user feedback loops for iterative refinements, while autonomous mode enables end-to-end task execution from detailed prompts. We demonstrate ToPolyAgent's versatility through case studies involving diverse polymer architectures under varying solvent conditions, thermostats, and simulation lengths. Furthermore, we highlight its potential as a research assistant by directing it to investigate the effect of interaction parameters on the linear polymer conformation, and the influence of grafting density on the persistence length of the brush polymer. By coupling natural language interfaces with rigorous simulation tools, ToPolyAgent lowers barriers to complex computational workflows and advances AI-driven materials discovery in polymer science. It lays the foundation for autonomous and extensible multi-agent scientific research ecosystems.

Ding, Lijie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-quality Acinetobacter genomes recovered from combat wounds via metagenomic sequencing resemble cultured isolate genomes

The ability to accurately characterize wound pathogens is critical to informing clinical decisions for wound infections with complex treatment requirements. Acinetobacter baumannii is an impactful nosocomial pathogen in combat wounds and civilian hospital-acquired infections. An informed understanding of the phylogenetics and epidemiology of A. baumannii infections in military and civilian environments could guide approaches that improve antibiotic treatment regimens for both military and civilian patients. Whole-genome data for bacterial strains can be difficult to obtain due to challenges in culturing isolates from preserved military specimens. Metagenomic sequencing and assembly create opportunities for genomic analysis of pathogens directly from clinical specimens. The ability to perform comparative analyses between metagenome-derived genomes and culture-derived genomes would support a range of comparative bacterial genomic studies. Wound tissue biopsy and effluent samples from combat injuries were subjected to metagenomic sequencing and assembly. In total, 42 microbial metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) were obtained directly from metagenomic sequence data, 36 of which were designated “high” quality. Thirty of these genomes corresponded to Acinetobacter, with 29 mapping specifically to A. baumannii. Other observed genera included Bordetella, Citrobacter, Escherichia, and Pseudomonas. Single-copy and multi-copy orthologs were identified across Acinetobacter MAGs and publicly available isolate genomes derived from military and civilian sources. Both MAG and military isolate genomes were annotated with antimicrobial resistance data, and MAG genomes were statistically comparable to genomes obtained from isolates. Our results highlight the potential of de novo metagenome assembly for enabling high-resolution characterization directly from clinical specimens, thereby improving diagnostic precision, guiding antimicrobial stewardship, and enhancing understanding of pathogen evolution across diverse healthcare and battlefield environments.

Acinetobacter baumannii↗
DOE OSTI2024

DOE BSSD Performance Management Metrics Report Q1

Microbes play key roles in our biosphere, from driving global nutrient cycling to impacting plant, animal and human health and disease. Complex data from microbial genomes, proteins, and metabolites provide a window into these tiny engines that drive life on our planet. Yet these data are dispersed among researchers’ laboratories and various repositories, making it difficult to access. This calls for new ways of managing data, improving data interoperability, advancing community standards, and creating an infrastructure where data are shared efficiently. We have built the National Microbiome Data Collaborative (NMDC) to advance how scientists create, use, and reuse data to redefine the way we understand and harness the power of microbes. The vision of the National Microbiome Data Collaborative (NMDC) is to drive a microbiome data sharing network connecting data, people, and ideas to advance microbiome innovation and discovery. The NMDC was launched in 2019 and brought together DOE National Laboratories to collaborate across resources, capabilities, and expertise. The NMDC team was strategically assembled to include software developers, microbial researchers, metadata experts, and multi-omics specialists. The diversity of the NMDC team reflects the inherently interdisciplinary nature of microbiome science, and we leverage the strengths of the DOE National Laboratory system. Towards BER’s goal of advancing an iterative systems biology approach to the understanding of microbial genomes, the NMDC serves as a foundation for infrastructure, data standards, and community building. Together with the flagship DOE User Facilities, the Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), we are developing core capabilities in metadata standards for environmental descriptors and sample handling and processing; standardized bioinformatic workflows; an interface for data search and access; and robust community engagement activities. The NMDC production platform supports long-term data infrastructure and community building for BER’s bioenergy and environmental research goals. Our approach leverages lessons learned and an ambitious framework for collaborative, interdisciplinary data infrastructure to support microbiome research. The NMDC supports data, information, and knowledge access through three defined software tools – the Submission Portal, NMDC EDGE, and the Data Portal – driven by community needs. Herein, we describe the value proposition for the microbiome research community, our overarching strategy, and challenges and opportunities for developing the NMDC as both an infrastructure and community engagement program.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalable phononic metamaterials: Tunable bandgap design and multi-scale experimental validation

Phononic metamaterials offer unprecedented control over wave propagation, making them essential for applications such as vibration isolation, waveguiding, and acoustic filtering. However, achieving scalable and precisely tunable bandgap properties across different length scales remains challenging. This study presents a user-friendly design framework for phononic metamaterials, enabling ultra-wide bandgap tunability (B/ω c ratios up to 172 %) across multiple frequency ranges and scales. Using finite element simulations of a Yablonovite-inspired unit cell, we establish a comprehensive parametric design space that illustrates how geometric parameters, such as sphere size and beam diameter, controls bandgap width and frequency. The scalability and robustness of the framework are validated through experimental testing on additively manufactured structures at both macro (10 mm) and micro (80 µm) scales, fabricated using Stereolithography and Two-Photon Polymerization. Transmission loss measurements, conducted with piezoelectric transducers and laser vibrometry, closely match simulations in the kHz and MHz frequency ranges, confirming the reliability and consistency of the bandgap behavior across scales. This work bridges theory and experiments at multiple scales, offering a practical methodology for the rapid design of phononic metamaterials and expanding their potential for diverse applications across a broad range of frequencies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beyond sequence similarity: toward function-based screening of nucleic acid synthesis

Synthetic nucleic acids are a key input to modern biotechnology, yet they represent dual-use materials that require robust screening to mitigate biosecurity risks. The prevailing screening paradigm, which identifies sequences of concern (SoCs) through sequence similarity to controlled pathogens and toxins, may not fully capture risks posed by AI tools that can decouple biomolecular function from reliance on known sequences. Rapidly advancing biodesign capabilities enable the generation of genes and proteins that might evade sequence-based detection. We highlight the critical need for function-based screening approaches that can detect sequences capable of hazardous biological functions, regardless of similarity to known SoCs. We examine the feasibility of function-based screening with an initial focus on proteins, arguing that, while protein sequence space is vast, biologically functional proteins are significantly constrained by biophysical and biochemical requirements that can be learned and modeled. We propose a concrete implementation framework organized along a continuum of complexity, starting with toxins as the most tractable targets before expanding to more complex pathogenic functions. We then discuss open challenges and describe a research and development strategy to address them.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A dual promotional effect of doping tantalum (Ta) in atomically dispersed Ru/CeO 2 catalyst toward CO 2 methanation: Enhanced associative adsorption of CO 2 and activation of H 2

Precisely controlling the product selectivity in CO 2 hydrogenation through rational catalyst design presents a promising approach to mitigate environmental and energy-related challenges, though it remains a significant scientific hurdle. Herein, the CH 4 selectivity of 0.5 wt% Ru loaded catalysts at 250 °C was effectively shifted from approximately 35 % to 100 % through the incorporation of Ta dopant into the CeO 2 support. The EXAFS spectra in conjunction with CO DRIFTS experiment indicated the presence of atomically dispersed Ru particles anchored on the Ta-doped CeO 2 surface. A higher oxidized CeO 2 surface was evidenced in the presence of Ta dopant. The presence of Ta dopant also improved the dispersion of Ru species and their interaction with the support. Most importantly, the Ru/Ta-CeO 2 catalyst exhibited a pronounced capacity for associative CO 2 -adsorption under atmospheric pressure at 50 °C. An improved H 2 activation was also observed under CO 2 hydrogenation conditions. This novel finding of the dual promotional effect of Ta carries a significant impact in the field of CO 2 capture and utilization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement With Georgetown University Report: National Institutes of Health, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences Clinical and Translational Science Award

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is participating with Georgetown University (GU) as a subrecipient in response to the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) (U54 Clinical Trial Optional) funding opportunity announcement. This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement is put in to place to facilitate the development and implementation of clinical interventions that demonstrably improve human health is currently a complex, recursive, and inefficient process that leads to delays of years or decades before discoveries in biomedical research result in health benefits for patients and communities. NCATS conducts and supports research in the science of translation, to discover the mechanistic and operational principles of the intervention development and dissemination process, thereby providing the scientific foundation for improvements in translational efficiency that will accelerate the realization of interventions that improve human health. Under NCATS’ leadership, the CTSA Program supports a national network of medical research institutions called hubs. GU is the lead institution in one of the NIH hubs that was created as a result of a previous NIH CTSA. The missions of the GU have historically included the advancement of health through research in the clinical and biomedical sciences, the education of future leaders in medical and nursing practice and academia, and the provision of compassionate and scientifically competent patient care and service to the Washington, DC community and the nation. GU is the lead institution for the Georgetown-Howard Universities Center for Clinical and Translational Science (GHUCCTS), a multi-institutional partnership of medical research institutions forged from a desire to promote clinical research and translational science. Through multiple collaborations among these institutions, GHUCCTS is transforming clinical research and translational science in order to bring new scientific advances to health care. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is the Department of Energy's (DOE) largest science and energy laboratory. Managed since April 2000 by a partnership of the University of Tennessee and Battelle, ORNL was established in 1943 as a part of the secret Manhattan Project to pioneer a method for producing and separating plutonium. During the 1950s and 1960s, ORNL became an international center for the study of nuclear energy and related research in the physical and life sciences. With the creation of DOE in the 1970s, ORNL's mission broadened to include a variety of energy technologies and strategies. Today the laboratory supports the nation with a peacetime science and technology mission that is just as important as, but very different from, its role during the Manhattan Project. ORNL is home to the world's premier center for high performance supercomputing to enable scientific discovery. ORNL has extensive expertise in various areas of computer science that are uniquely situated to support GU. Additionally, ORNL’s leading computational user facilities present a unique opportunity to leverage the largest scale machines for open science in support of the stated mission of the NCATS CTSA. ORNL's partnership with GU will offer unparalleled opportunity in data analytics, deep-learning, artificial intelligence, and urban dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Final Report for CSP Tower Public Opinion and Education Project

As part of the CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market (DE-EE0009809) the project wanted to understand the public’s opinion of the technology and and explore the types of community engagement that is needed to support such development. The initial objectives for the public perception activities were twofold. The primary objective was to gather public opinion and feedback from the communities living near the two operating solar power tower plants, Ivanpah and Crescent Dunes, and to distill lessons learned from the community engagement conducted before, during, and after the plants were developed to inform future development. This included outreach to nearby airports. The other objective was to gauge public opinion about large-scale solar, specifically CSP towers, to start educating the public on the benefits and to begin building relationships with communities of interest, initially targeting the Kingman, Arizona area. The objectives shifted after the first exploratory trip to Ivanpah and Kingman, however, as it became apparent that it would be challenging to gather public opinion from the community surrounding Ivanpah that could be useful for other community profiles, and the company wasn’t ready to address the concerns in Kingman. Another area was chosen, therefore, to represent those where future development is possible. The recently published Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Perceptions of Large-Scale Solar Project Neighbors Study exemplified public perception polling based on social science and served as the foundation for the survey questions taken to the field. The intent was to ensure that people knew their input was valued and that the time they spent was valuable for the participant as well. It has been noted in the literature that in-person interaction has greater benefits than activities online or via mail, as well as limits the expense.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Materials and Fuels Complex FY-23 - FY-27: Five-Year Investment Strategy

The Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) vision is to “Advance nuclear energy science and technology to meet U.S. energy, environmental, and economic needs.” The Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) serves as the foundation of a nuclear RD&D enabling test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and is an integral part of a National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) strategy. MFC facilities focus on developing and maintaining RD&D capabilities that can increase research throughput, reduce barriers to deployment, and facilitate commercialization of new ideas and technologies for clean and secure sources of energy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient online quantum circuit learning with no upfront training

Optimization is a promising candidate for studying the utility of variational quantum algorithms (VQAs). However, evaluating cost functions using quantum hardware introduces runtime overheads that limit exploration. Surrogate-based methods can reduce calls to a quantum computer, yet existing approaches require hyperparameter pre-training and have been tested only on small problems. Here, we show that surrogate-based methods can enable successful optimization at scale, without pre-training, by using radial basis function interpolation (RBF) to construct an adaptive, hyperparameter-free surrogate. Using the surrogate as an acquisition function drives hardware queries to the vicinity of the true optima. For 16-qubit random 3-regular Max-Cut instances with the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA), our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, without considering their upfront training costs. Furthermore, we successfully optimize QAOA circuits for 127-qubit random Ising models on an IBM processor using 10 4 −10 5 measurements. Strong empirical performance demonstrates the promise of automated surrogate-based learning for large-scale VQA applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Status and Ambitions of the US Heavy Element Program

The aim of this whitepaper is to highlight the current capabilities and priorities of the US Heavy Element community and to provide the framework for a coordinated advancement of nuclear science from these studies. This is an organized effort to reflect on what has been achieved in the field given the recommendations and initiatives of the 2015 NSAC Long Range Plan, and on what can be realized in the next decade given current and possibly expanded investments. Current investments have positioned the US community to be among the world leaders in studies of the nuclear and chemical properties of the heaviest elements. These include studies of reaction mechanisms, moving us ever closer to the “island of stability”, in spectroscopy, allowing us to better understand nuclear structure at these extreme proton numbers, in chemical behavior, looking to determine how these elements should be placed on the Periodic Table, in performing the first measurements where isotopes are directly identified by their mass numbers, and in laying the foundation for a potential US-led new element discovery experiment. At present, the highest priority of the US Heavy Element community is to capitalize on the current investments by supporting the operations of US facilities at optimal values. These facilities include the Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System at Argonne National Laboratory and other Department of Energy facilities such as the 88-Inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which has a dedicated superheavy element program, as well as university laboratories, including Texas A&M University. The High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is crucial to providing the radioactive isotopes required for heavy element science targets. This facility should be supported to provide the actinide materials that are essential for US-based science. Production of stable, rare isotopes for beam material, including 48 Ca, 50 Ti, 54 Cr and 58 Fe, at the Stable Isotope Production and Research Center is critical to continued research in heavy element science and should be a priority. The continued development of targets for heavy element science and retaining US-based expertise is critical for the heavy element community. This is an area that is currently under pressure. For example, the target laboratory at Argonne National Laboratory serves a broad community and is currently under threat due to loss of critical personnel. The skills needed to make targets for nuclear science and develop new targetry methods need to be supported long term at Argonne, Oak Ridge and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories as well as maintaining the programs at Oregon State University and San José State University as vital pipelines for training students. Advances in theory are the foundation to understand how nuclei behave and to predict those behaviors in new circumstances. Progress in these studies will necessitate continued and new investment and access to high-performance computing. The future health of the heavy element field is dependent on the continuous support of talented early-career professionals at all levels. It is critical that opportunities continue to be created for the next generation to become established in heavy element research so that we can ensure the field is attracting and retaining the best minds for continued success. It is also clear that to ensure diversity of ideas, perspectives and techniques, we need to recruit diverse personnel that are trained at the best facilities. The heavy element community is in support of continued investment to programs with initiatives in diversity, equity, and inclusion. Looking to the next decade of research, support needs to maintain and grow US leadership in heavy element science. Specifically, new investments in state-of-the-art instrumentation will be essential to scientific development of the field and in expanding scientific knowledge. Advances in the next generation of electron cyclotron resonance ion sources, multi-reflection time-of-flight devices, laser spectroscopy, trapping methods and next generation alpha and gamma spectroscopy systems should be prioritized.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Archaeal Diversity Revealed Through Massive Data Integration: Uncovering Just Tip of Iceberg

The domain of Archaea has gathered significant interest for its ecological and biotechnological potential and its role in helping us to understand the evolutionary history of Eukaryotes. In comparison to the bacterial domain, the number of adequately described members in Archaea is relatively low, with less than 1000 species described. It is not clear whether this is solely due to the cultivation difficulty of its members or, indeed, the domain is characterized by evolutionary constraints that keep the number of species relatively low. Based on molecular evidence that bypasses the difficulties of formal cultivation and characterization, several novel clades have been proposed, enabling insights into their metabolism and physiology. Given the extent of global sampling and sequencing efforts, it is now possible and meaningful to question the magnitude of global archaeal diversity based on molecular evidence. To do so, we extracted all sequences classified as Archaea from 500 thousand amplicon samples available in public repositories. After processing through our highly conservative pipeline, we named this comprehensive resource the ‘Global Archaea Diversity’ (GAD), which encompassed nearly 3 million molecular species clusters at 97% similarity, and organized it into over 500 thousand genera and nearly 100 thousand families. Saline environments have contributed the most to the novel taxa of this previously unseen diversity. The majority of those 16S rRNA gene sequence fragments were verified by matches in metagenomic datasets from IMG/M. These findings reveal a vast and previously overlooked diversity within the Archaea, offering insights into their ecological roles and evolutionary importance while establishing a foundation for the future study and characterization of this intriguing domain of life.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Discovery

Advanced energy technologies are enabled by the constituent materials found in functional devices. Scientists at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are leaders in discovering the new materials that provide the foundation for future innovations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and simulating the weather forecast uncertainty for advanced building control

Weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable despite technological advancements. Accurately quantifying and modelling this uncertainty is essential for developing and comparing advanced building controllers. In this study, we present a structured approach using a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)) to model uncertainty in ambient temperature and global solar irradiation (GHI) forecasts. We analyzed weather data from four cities and employed Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD) to evaluate the similarity between synthetic and actual forecast errors. The average JSD values for temperature are 0.027 (Berkeley), 0.021 (Leuven), 0.018 (Berlin), and 0.008 (Oslo), and for GHI, the average JSD values are 0.016 (Berkeley), 0.058 (Leuven), and 0.013 (Berlin). The low JSD values indicate a high similarity between the synthetic and real forecast error distributions. Further, our approach successfully generates synthetic weather forecasts that mirror the statistical properties of actual forecasts. The implementation of our method for uncertain forecast generation is being added to the BOPTEST framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗