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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The prevalence of precipitation from polar supercooled clouds

Abstract. Supercooled clouds substantially impact polar surface energy budgets, but large-scale models often underestimate their occurrence, which motivates accurately establishing metrics of basic processes. An analysis of long-term measurements at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, combines lidar-validated use of soundings to identify supercooled cloud layers and colocated ground-based profiling radar measurements to quantify cloud base precipitation. We find that more than 85 % (75 %) of sampled supercooled layers are precipitating over the Arctic (Antarctic) site, with more than 75 % (50 %) precipitating continuously to the surface. Such high frequencies can be reconciled with substantially lesser spaceborne estimates by considering differences in radar hydrometeor detection sensitivity. While ice precipitation into supercooled clouds from aloft is common, we also find that the great majority of supercooled cloud layers without ice falling into them are themselves continuously generating precipitation. Such sustained primary ice formation is consistent with continuous activation of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles (INPs), suggesting that supercooled cloud formation is a principal gateway to ice formation at temperatures greater than ∼-38 ∘C over polar regions. The prevalence of weak precipitation fluxes is also consistent with supercooled cloud longevity and with well-observed and widely simulated case studies. An analysis of colocated microwave radiometer retrievals suggests that weak precipitation fluxes can be nonetheless consequential to moisture budgets for supercooled clouds owing to small liquid water paths. The results here also demonstrate that the observed abundance of mixed-phase clouds can vary substantially with instrument sensitivity and methodology. Finally, we suggest that these ground-based precipitation rate statistics offer valuable guidance for improving the representation of polar cloud processes in large-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Prevalence of Precipitation From Polar Supercooled Clouds

Supercooled clouds substantially impact polar surface energy budgets, but large-scale models often underestimate their occurrence, which motivates accurately establishing metrics of basic processes. An analysis of long-term measurements at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, combines lidar-validated use of soundings to identify supercooled cloud layers and colocated ground-based profiling radar measurements to quantify cloud base precipitation. We find that more than 85 % (75 %) of sampled supercooled layers are precipitating over the Arctic (Antarctic) site, with more than 75 % (50 %) precipitating continuously to the surface. Such high frequencies can be reconciled with substantially lesser spaceborne estimates by considering differences in radar hydrometeor detection sensitivity. While ice precipitation into supercooled clouds from aloft is common, we also find that the great majority of supercooled cloud layers without ice falling into them are themselves continuously generating precipitation. Such sustained primary ice formation is consistent with continuous activation of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles (INPs), suggesting that supercooled cloud formation is a principal gateway to ice formation at temperatures greater than ∼−38 ∘C over polar regions. The prevalence of weak precipitation fluxes is also consistent with supercooled cloud longevity and with well-observed and widely simulated case studies. An analysis of colocated microwave radiometer retrievals suggests that weak precipitation fluxes can be nonetheless consequential to moisture budgets for supercooled clouds owing to small liquid water paths. The results here also demonstrate that the observed abundance of mixed-phase clouds can vary substantially with instrument sensitivity and methodology. Finally, we suggest that these ground-based precipitation rate statistics offer valuable guidance for improving the representation of polar cloud processes in large-scale models.

Supercooled clouds↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanism for Anomalous Hall Ferromagnetism in Twisted Bilayer Graphene

Motivated by the recent observation of an anomalous Hall effect in twisted bilayer graphene, here we use a lowest Landau level model to understand the origin of the underlying symmetry-broken correlated state. This effective model is rooted in the occurrence of Chern bands which arise due to the coupling between the graphene device and its encapsulating substrate. Our model exhibits a phase transition from a spin-valley polarized insulator to a partial or fully valley unpolarized metal as the bandwidth is increased relative to the interaction strength, consistent with experimental observations. In sharp contrast to standard quantum Hall ferromagnetism, the Chern number structure of the flat bands precludes an instability to an intervalley coherent phase, but allows for an excitonic vortex lattice at large interaction anisotropy.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2015

Cloud fraction at the ARM SGP site: Reducing uncertainty with self-organizing maps

Instrument downtime leads to uncertainty in the monthly and annual record of cloud fraction (CF), making it difficult to perform time series analyses of cloud properties and perform detailed evaluations of model simulations. As cloud occurrence is partially controlled by the large-scale atmospheric environment, this knowledge is used to reduce uncertainties in the instrument record. Synoptic patterns diagnosed from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) during the period 1997–2010 are classified using a competitive neural network known as the self-organizing map (SOM). The classified synoptic states are then compared to the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) instrument record to determine the expected CF. A number of SOMs are tested to understand how the number of classes and the period of classifications impact the relationship between classified states and CFs. Bootstrapping is utilized to quantify the uncertainty of the instrument record when statistical information from the SOM is included. Although all SOMs significantly reduce the uncertainty of the CF record calculated in Kennedy et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 115:91–105, 2014), SOMs with a large number of classes and separated by month are required to produce the lowest uncertainty and best agreement with the annual cycle of CF. Lastly, this result may be due to a manifestation of seasonally dependent biases in NARR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effect of Wear on Surface Crack Propagation in Rail–Wheel Wet Contact

The interaction between wear and rolling contact fatigue in wet contact was investigated by means of experiments on a two-disk test bench. Specimens of various railway wheel steels were coupled with specimens of the same rail steel, subjected to rolling and sliding wet contact with varying sliding/rolling ratio. Some tests with a dry rolling–sliding contact phase preceding wet contact were carried out as well (dry–wet tests). The pressurization of the fluid entrapped in the surface cracks was the cause of a rapid and severe damage in the dry–wet tests, due to the nucleation of surface cracks by ratcheting in the dry phase, which subsequently propagate in the wet phase. In the wet tests, the fluid pressurization effect was much mitigated due to the absence of initial surface cracks; the specimens subjected to higher sliding/rolling ratio showed the best performance against rolling contact fatigue, due to the effect of wear in reducing the length of surface cracks. A model for assessing the interaction between wear and rolling contact fatigue was proposed, based on the correction of the classical Paris law for crack propagation by taking into account the effect of wear on crack length reduction. The application of the model to the experimental tests allowed finding a correlation between the model predictions and the occurrence of fatigue failure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microbial Communities Associated with Methylmercury Degradation in Paddy Soils

Bioaccumulation of the neurotoxin methylmercury (MeHg) in rice has raised worldwide concerns because of its risks to human health. Certain microorganisms are able to degrade MeHg in pure cultures, but the roles and diversities of the microbial communities in MeHg degradation in rice paddy soils are unknown. Using a series of microcosms, we investigated MeHg degradation in paddy soils from Hunan, Guizhou, and Hubei provinces, representing three major rice production regions in China, and further characterized one of the soils from the Hunan Province for microbial communities associated with MeHg degradation. Microbial demethylation was observed in all three soils, demonstrated by significantly more MeHg degraded in the unsterilized soils than in the sterilized controls. More demethylation occurred in water-saturated soils than in unsaturated soils, but the addition of molybdate and bromoethanesulfonic acid as the respective inhibitors of sulfate reducing bacteria and methanogens showed insignificant effects on MeHg degradation. However, the addition of Cu enhanced MeHg degradation and the enrichment of Xanthomonadaceae in the unsaturated soil. 16S rRNA Illumina sequencing and metatranscriptomic analyses of the Hunan soil consistently revealed that Catenulisporaceae, Frankiaceae, Mycobacteriaceae, and Thermomonosporaceae were among the most likely microbial taxa in influencing MeHg degradation in the paddy soil, and they were confirmed by combined analyses of the co-occurrence network, random forest modeling, and linear discriminant analysis of the effect size. Furthermore, our results shed additional light onto the roles of microbial communities in MeHg degradation in paddy soils and its subsequent bioaccumulation in rice grains.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Evolution of dark state of an open atomic system in constant intensity laser field

We studied experimentally and theoretically the evolution of open atomic systems in the constant intensity laser field. The study is performed by analyzing the line shapes of Hanle electromagnetically induced transparency (EIT) obtained in different segments of a laser beam cross section of constant intensity, i.e., a {Pi}-shaped laser beam. Such Hanle EIT resonances were measured using a small movable aperture placed just in front of the photodetector, i.e., after the entire laser beam had passed through the vacuum Rb cell. The laser was locked to the open transition F{sub g}=2{yields}F{sub e}=1 at the D{sub 1} line of {sup 87}Rb with laser intensities between 0.5 and 4 mW/cm{sup 2}. This study shows that the profile of the laser beam determines the processes governing the development of atomic states during the interaction. The resonances obtained near the beam center are narrower than those obtained near the beam edge, but the significant changes of the linewidths occur only near the beam edge, i.e., right after the atom enters the beam. The Hanle EIT resonances obtained near the beam center exhibit two pronounced minima next to the central maximum. The theoretical model reveals that the occurrence of these transmission minima is a joint effect of the preparation of atoms into the dark state and the optical pumping into the uncoupled ground level F{sub g}=1. The appearance of the transmission minima, although similar to that observed in the wings of a Gaussian beam [A. J. Krmpot et al., Opt. Express 17, 22491 (2009)], is of an entirely different nature for the {Pi}-shaped laser beam.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the electron Yukawa coupling via resonant s-channel Higgs production at FCC-ee

The Future Circular Collider (FCC-ee) offers the unique opportunity of studying the Higgs Yukawa coupling to the electron, \(y_\mathrm {e}\) , via resonant s -channel production, \(\mathrm {e^+e^-}\rightarrow \mathrm {H}\) , in a dedicated run at \(\sqrt{s} = m_\mathrm {H}\) . The signature for direct Higgs production is a small rise in the cross sections for particular final states, consistent with Higgs decays, over the expectations for their occurrence due to Standard Model (SM) background processes involving \(\mathrm {Z}^*\) , \(\gamma ^*\) , or t -channel exchanges alone. Performing such a measurement is remarkably challenging for four main reasons. First, the low value of the e \(^\pm \) mass leads to a tiny \(y_\mathrm {e}\) coupling and correspondingly small cross section: \(\sigma _\mathrm {ee\rightarrow H} \propto m_\mathrm {e}^2 = 0.57\) fb accounting for initial-state \(\gamma \) radiation. Second, the \(\mathrm {e^+e^-}\) beams must be monochromatized such that the spread of their centre-of-mass (c.m.) energy is commensurate with the narrow width of the SM Higgs boson, \(\varGamma _\mathrm {H} = 4.1\) MeV, while keeping large beam luminosities. Third, the Higgs mass must also be known beforehand with a few-MeV accuracy in order to operate the collider at the resonance peak, \(\sqrt{s} = m_\mathrm {H}\) . Last but not least, the cross sections of the background processes are many orders-of-magnitude larger than those of the Higgs decay signals. A preliminary generator-level study of 11 Higgs decay channels using a multivariate analysis, which exploits boosted decision trees to discriminate signal and background events, identifies two final states as the most promising ones in terms of statistical significance: \(\mathrm {H}\rightarrow gg\) and \(\mathrm {H}\rightarrow \mathrm {W}\mathrm {W}^*\!\rightarrow \ell \nu \) + 2 jets. For a benchmark monochromatization with 4.1-MeV c.m. energy spread (leading to \(\sigma _\mathrm {ee\rightarrow H} = 0.28\) fb) and 10 ab \(^{-1}\) of integrated luminosity, a \(1.3\sigma \) signal significance can be reached, corresponding to an upper limit on the e \(^\pm \) Yukawa coupling at 1.6 times the SM value: |y e | < 1.6|y e SM | at 95% confidence level, per FCC-ee interaction point per year. Directions for future improvements of the study are outlined.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Geoscience Perspectives in Carbon Sequestration - Educational Training and Research Through Classroom, Field, and Laboratory Investigations

The most effective mechanism to limit CO 2 release from underground Geologic Carbon Sequestration (GCS) sites over multi-century time scales will be to convert the CO 2 into solid carbonate minerals. This report describes the results from four independent research investigations on carbonate mineralization: 1) Colloidal calcite particles forming in Maramec Spring, Missouri, provide a natural analog to evaluate reactions that may occur in a leaking GCS site. The calcite crystals form as a result of physiochemical changes that occur as the spring water rises from a depth of more than 190'. The resultant pressure decrease induces a loss of CO 2 from the water, rise in pH, lowering of the solubility of Ca 2+ and CO 3 2- , and calcite precipitation. Equilibrium modelling of the spring water resulted in a calculated undersaturated state with respect to calcite. The discontinuity between the observed occurrence of calcite and the model result predicting undersaturated conditions can be explained if bicarbonate ions (HCO 3 - ) are directly involved in precipitation process rather than just carbonate ions (CO 3 2- ). 2) Sedimentary rocks in the Oronto Group of the Midcontinent Rift (MCR) system contain an abundance of labile Ca-, Mg-, and Fe-silicate minerals that will neutralize carbonic acid and provide alkaline earth ions for carbonate mineralization. One of the challenges in using MCR rocks for GCS results from their low porosity and permeability. Oronto Group samples were reacted with both CO 2 -saturated deionized water at 90°C, and a mildly acidic leachant solution in flow-through core-flooding reactor vessels at room temperature. Resulting leachate solutions often exceeded the saturation limit for calcite. Carbonate crystals were also detected in as little as six days of reaction with Oronto Group rocks at 90oC, as well as experiments with forsterite-olivine and augite, both being common minerals this sequence. The Oronto Group samples have poor reservoir rock characteristics, none ever exceeded a permeability value of 2.0 mD even after extensive dissolution of calcite cement during the experiments. The overlying Bayfield Group – Jacobsville Formation sandstones averaged 13.4 ± 4.3% porosity and a single sample tested by core-flooding revealed a permeability of ~340 mD. The high porosity-permeability characteristics of these sandstones will allow them to be used for GCS as a continuous aquifer unit with the overlying Mt. Simon Formation. 3) Anaerobic sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) can enhance the conversion rate of CO 2 into solid minerals and thereby improve long-term storage. SRB accelerated carbonate mineralization reactions between pCO 2 values of 0.0059 and 14.7 psi. Hydrogen, lactate and formate served as suitable electron donors for SRB metabolism. The use of a 13 CO 2 spiked gas source also produced carbonate minerals with ~53% of the carbon being derived from the gas phase. The sulfate reducing activity of the microbial community was limited, however, at 20 psi pCO 2 and carbonate mineralization did not occur. Inhibition of bacterial metabolism may have resulted from the acidic conditions or CO 2 toxicity. 4) Microbialite communities forming in the high turbidity and hypersaline water of Storrs’ Lake, San Salvador Island, The Bahamas, were investigated for their distribution, mineralogy and microbial diversity. Molecular analysis of the organic mats on the microbialites indicate only a trace amount of cyanobacteria, while anaerobic and photosynthetic non-sulfur bacteria of the phyla Chloroflexi and purple sulfur bacteria of class Gammaproteobacteria were abundant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

FAST-1.0.1 User Installation and Verification Guide

The purpose of this document is to provide the user information about the installation of FAST-1.0.1 on their computers or servers. General information about the code and supported operating systems is described in Section 1.0.1. Self-service oriented FAST-1.0.1 software licensing steps are described in Section 2.0. An installation verification test suite is provided with FAST-1.0.1 and described in Section 3.0. A convenience script for converting FRAPCON to FAST inputs is discussed in Section 4.0. FAST-1.0.1 was developed and released under a software quality assurance program based upon NQA-1-2017. FAST-1.0.1 is the latest baseline code and the result of a bug fixes to FAST-1.0 with other software and methodology developments. The installation verification test suite contains both steady state and transient Anticipated Operation Occurrences (AOOs). Capability to model accident conditions, such as Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIAs) and Loss Of Coolant Accidents (LOCAs), are targeted for a later release of FAST. FRAPTRAN-2.0 will continue to be used for accident conditions until the release of FAST with accident condition modeling capabilities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗
NASA NTRS1981

Global patterns in cloud forms on Mars

Mariner 9 images and all Viking orbiter images through July 1979 were searched for cloud forms. A computer-accessible catalog was assembled, consisting of a classification of cloud type (lee wave, for example) and properties (directionality, wavelength, for example). Lee wave directionality shows a pattern and seasonal variation at high latitudes which is consistent with predictions of theoretical modeling. Fog and haze occurrence shows no obvious correlation with water abundance or any other simple causal factor. Lee waves are rare at equatorial latitudes. Plumes (probably dust) occur preferentially at locations where strong boundary layer convection is expected.

French, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Space Shuttle Main Engine Propellant Path Leak Detection Using Sequential Image Processing

Initial research in this study using theoretical radiation transport models established that the occurrence of a leak is accompanies by a sudden but sustained change in intensity in a given region of an image. In this phase, temporal processing of video images on a frame-by-frame basis was used to detect leaks within a given field of view. The leak detection algorithm developed in this study consists of a digital highpass filter cascaded with a moving average filter. The absolute value of the resulting discrete sequence is then taken and compared to a threshold value to produce the binary leak/no leak decision at each point in the image. Alternatively, averaging over the full frame of the output image produces a single time-varying mean value estimate that is indicative of the intensity and extent of a leak. Laboratory experiments were conducted in which artificially created leaks on a simulated SSME background were produced and recorded from a visible wavelength video camera. This data was processed frame-by-frame over the time interval of interest using an image processor implementation of the leak detection algorithm. In addition, a 20 second video sequence of an actual SSME failure was analyzed using this technique. The resulting output image sequences and plots of the full frame mean value versus time verify the effectiveness of the system.

Smith, L. Montgomery↗
NASA NTRS2004

Malaria Modeling using Remote Sensing and GIS Technologies

Malaria has been with the human race since the ancient time. In spite of the advances of biomedical research and the completion of genomic mapping of Plasmodium falciparum, the exact mechanisms of how the various strains of parasites evade the human immune system and how they have adapted and become resistant to multiple drugs remain elusive. Perhaps because of these reasons, effective vaccines against malaria are still not available. Worldwide, approximately one to three millions deaths are attributed to malaria annually. With the increased availability of remotely sensed data, researchers in medical entomology, epidemiology and ecology have started to associate environmental and ecological variables with malaria transmission. In several studies, it has been shown that transmission correlates well with certain environmental and ecological parameters, and that remote sensing can be used to measure these determinants. In a NASA project, we have taken a holistic approach to examine how remote sensing and GIs can contribute to vector and malaria controls. To gain a better understanding of the interactions among the possible promoting factors, we have been developing a habitat model, a transmission model, and a risk prediction model, all using remote sensing data as input. Our objectives are: 1) To identify the potential breeding sites of major vector species and the locations for larvicide and insecticide applications in order to reduce costs, lessen the chance of developing pesticide resistance, and minimize the damage to the environment; 2) To develop a malaria transmission model characterizing the interactions among hosts, vectors, parasites, landcover and environment in order to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission, and 3) To develop a risk model to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity using epidemiological data and satellite-derived or ground-measured environmental and meteorological data.

Kiang, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Restoration Strategy for Distribution System Resilience Enhancement

In electric power distribution systems, distributed energy resources (DERs) can act as controllable power sources and support utility operators to minimize power outages after extreme weather events (e.g., hurricane, earthquake, wildfire) and thus help enhance the grid's resilience. Meanwhile, the influences of extreme events and the capabilities of DERs are dynamic and difficult to predict. Hence, the desired distribution system restoration strategy should be able to evolve according to real-time fault/disturbance information and the availability of DERs. In this paper, we propose a new dynamic restoration strategy for distribution systems to enhance system resilience against potential hazards. An efficient reconfiguration algorithm is developed to eliminate the use of integer variables to relieve the computational burden. Model predictive control is implemented to adjust the system topology and DER operation set points based on the updated fault information and DER forecasts. The effectiveness of the proposed restoration model in enhancing distribution system resilience is validated through an IEEE 123-bus test system. Simulation results also validate that the proposed restoration model can mitigate the occurrence of unexpected events and the fluctuations of DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2016

Risks from Solar Particle Events for Long Duration Space Missions Outside Low Earth Orbit

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) simulates the medical occurrences and mission outcomes for various mission profiles using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. As part of the work with the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), this project focuses on radiation risks from acute events during extended human missions outside low Earth orbit (LEO). Of primary importance in acute risk assessment are solar particle events (SPEs), which are low probability, high consequence events that could adversely affect mission outcomes through acute radiation damage to astronauts. SPEs can be further classified into coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares/impulsive events (Fig. 1). CMEs are an eruption of solar material and have shock enhancements that contribute to make these types of events higher in total fluence than impulsive events.

health↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed machine learning modeling for predictive control using noisy data

Due to the occurrence of over-fitting at the learning phase, the modeling of chemical processes via artificial neural networks (ANN) by using corrupted data (i.e., noisy data) is an ongoing challenge. Therefore, this work investigates the effect of both Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise on the performance of process-structure based recurrent neural networks (RNN) models, which take the form of partially-connected RNN models in this work, that are used to approximate a class of multi-input-multi-outputs nonlinear systems. Furthermore, two different techniques, specifically Monte Carlo dropout and co-teaching, are utilized in the development of partially-connected RNN models. Here, these two techniques are employed to reduce the over-fitting in ANNs when noisy data is used in the training process and, hence, to improve the open-loop accuracy as well as the closed-loop performance under a Lyapunov-based model predictive controller (MPC). Aspen Plus Dynamics, a well-known high-fidelity process simulator, is used to simulate a large-scale chemical process application in order to demonstrate the anticipated improvements in both open-loop approximation and closed-loop controller performance in the presence of Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise in the data set using physics-informed RNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new method for predicting hurricane rapid intensification based on co-occurring environmental parameters

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) that undergo Rapid Intensification (RI) can pose serious socioeconomic threats and can potentially result in major damaging impacts along coastal areas. Considering the complexity of various physical mechanisms that play a role in RI and its relatively low probability of occurrence, predicting RI remains a major operational challenge. In this study, we propose a simple deterministic binary classification model based on the co-occurrence of environmental parameters (MCE) to predict an RI event. More specifically, the model determines the possibility of RI based on a simple count of the number of environmental predictors deemed favorable and unfavorable. We compare our model results to logistic regression (LR) and decision tree (DT) models, well-trained using the same set of environmental predictors. Results reveal that at an RI threshold of 30 kt, the MCE exhibits a critical success index score of 0.233 which is 14% higher than DT and LR model performances. When tested at multiple RI thresholds, the MCE displays relatively higher skill scores across multiple metrics. By simultaneously evaluating the favorability of predictors, the MCE is able to comparatively reduce the number of false alarms predicted when certain predictors are unfavorable toward RI. Interpreting these model results to gain a physical understanding of how co-occurring environmental parameters can affect RI, we highlight future directions for using models based on the MCE approach to understand and predict TC RI as well as other meteorological extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗