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NASA NTRS2001

Gravitational Signal of Mass Redistribution Due to Interannual Meteorological Oscillations in Atmosphere and Ocean

Interannual meteorological oscillations (ENSO, QBO, NAO, etc.) have demonstrable influences on Earth's rotation. Here we study their effects on global gravitational field, whose temporal variations are being studied using SLR (satellite laser ranging) data and in anticipation of the new space mission GRACE. The meteorological oscillation modes are identified using the EOF (empirical orthogonal function)/PC (principal component) decomposition of surface fields (in which we take care of issues associated with the area-weighting and non-zero mean). We examine two fields, one for the global surface pressure field for the atmosphere obtained from the NCEP reanalysis (for the past 40 years), one for the surface topography field for the ocean from the Topex/Poseidon (T/P) data (for the past 8 years). We use monthly maps, and remove the mean-monthly ("climatology") values from each grid point, hence focusing only on non-seasonal signals. The T/P data were first subject to a steric correction where the steric contribution to the ocean surface topography was removed according to output of the numerical POCM model. The respective atmospheric and oceanic contributions to the gravitational variation, in terms of harmonic Stokes coefficients, are then combined mode-by-mode. Since the T/P data already contain the oceanic response to overlying atmospheric pressure, no regards to the inverted-barometer behavior for the ocean need be considered. Results for the lowest-degree Stokes coefficients can then be compared with space geodetic observations including the Earth's rotation and the SLR data mentioned above, to identify the importance of each meteorological oscillations in gravitational variation signals.

Chao, B. F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Evidence of an Intrinsic Intraseasonal Oscillation over Tropical South America During Austral Summer

The intraseasonal variation (ISV) in the 30-60 day band, also known as Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), has been studied for decades. Madden and Julian showed that the oscillation originated from the western Indian Ocean, propagated eastward, got enhanced over the maritime continent and weakened after passing over the dateline. Composite studies showed evidences of a signal in upper and lower level zonal wind propagating around the globe during an oscillation. Theoretical studies pointed out that the interaction with the warm ocean surface and the coupling with the convective and radiative processes in the atmosphere could manifest the oscillation, which propagates eastward via mutual feedbacks between the wave motions and the cumulus heating. Over tropical South America, no independent 30-60 day oscillation has been reported so far, despite that Amazon is the most distinct tropical convection center over the western hemisphere and the fluxes from its surface of tropical rainforests are close to that from the warm tropical ocean. Liebmann et al. showed a distinct spectral peak of 40-50 day oscillation in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over tropical South America and considered that was manifested by the MJO propagation. Nogues-Paegle et al. (2000) focused on a dipole pattern of the OLR anomaly with centers of action over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the subtropical plain. They used the regional 10-90 day filtered data and demonstrated this pattern could be represented by the fifth mode of the rotated empirical orthogonal function. Its principal component was further analyzed using the singular spectrum analysis. Their result showed two oscillatory modes with periods of 36-40 days and 22-28 days, of which the former was related to the MJO influence and the latter linked to the remote forcing over southwest of Australia, which produced a wave train propagating southeastward, rounding the southern tip of South America and returning back toward the northeast. The 22-28 day mode has distinct impact on SACZ, responsible for the regional seesaw pattern of alternating dry and wet conditions. In this study we will focus on the 30-60-day spectral band and investigate whether the independent oscillation source over tropical South America is existed. First, we will show the seasonal dependence of the tropical South American ISV in Section 3. Then, the leading principal modes of 30-60 day bandpass filtered 850-hPa velocity potential (VP850) will be computed to distinguish the stationary ISV over tropical South America (SISA) from the propagating MJO in the austral summertime in Section 4. The importance of SISA in representing the regional ISV over South America will be discussed. In Section 5, we will demonstrate the mass oscillation regime of SISA, which is well separated from that of MJO by the Andes, and the convective coupling with rainfall. The dynamical response of SISA and the impact on the South American summer monsoon (SASM) will be presented. Finally, we will give the concluding remarks.

Zhou, Jiayu↗
NASA NTRS2003

Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola↗
NASA NTRS2002

Causes of Long-Term Drought in the United States Great Plains

The United States Great Plains (USGP) experienced a number of multi-year droughts during the last century, most notably the droughts of the 1930s and 1950s. This study examines the causes of such droughts using ensembles of long term (1930-1999) simulations carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show that the model produces long-term (multi-year) variations in the USGP precipitation that are similar to those observed. A correlative analysis suggests that the ensemble mean low frequency (time scales longer than about 6 years) rainfall variations in the USGP are linked to a pan-Pacific pattern of SST variability that is the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) in the low frequency SST data. The link between the SST and the Great Plains precipitation is confirmed in idealized AGCM simulations, in which the model is forced by the 2 polarities of the pan-Pacific SST pattern. The idealized simulations further show that it is primarily the tropical part of the SST anomalies that influence the USGP. As such, the USGP tend to have above normal precipitation when the tropical Pacific SSTs are above normal, while there is a tendency for drought when the tropical SSTs are cold. The upper tropospheric response to the pan-Pacific SST EOF shows a global-scale pattern with a strong wave response in the Pacific and a substantial zonally-symmetric component in which USGP pluvial (drought) conditions are associated with reduced (enhanced) heights throughout the extra-tropics. The potential predictability of rainfall in the USGP associated with SSTs is rather modest, with on average about 1/3 of the total low frequency rainfall variance forced by SST anomalies. Further idealized experiments with climatological SST, suggest that the remaining low frequency variance in the USGP precipitation is the result of interactions with soil moisture. In particular, simulations with soil moisture feedback show a six-fold increase in the variance in annual USGP precipitation compared with simulations in which the soil feedback is excluded. In addition to increasing variance, the interactions with the soil introduce year-to-year memory in the hydrological cycle that is consistent with a red noise process, in which the low frequencies in the deep soil are the result of integrating a net forcing (precipitation-evaporation-runoff) that is white noise on interannual time scales. As such, the role of low frequency SST variability is to introduce a bias to the net forcing on the soil moisture that drives the random process preferentially to either wet or dry conditions.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

TRMM Fire Algorithm, Product and Applications

Land fires are frequent menaces to human lives and property. They also change the state of the vegetation and contribute to the climate forcing by releasing large amount of aerosols and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This paper summarizes methodologies of detecting global land fires from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible Infrared Scanner FIRS) measurements. The TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) fire products include global images of daily hot spots and monthly fire counts at 0.5 deg. x 0.5 deg. resolution, as well as text fiies that details necessary information of all fire pixels. The information includes date, orbit number, pixel number, local time, solar zenith angle, latitude, longitude, reflectance of visible/near infrared channels, brightness temperatures of infrared channels, as well as background brightness temperatures of infrared channels. These products have been archived since January 1998. The TSDIS fire products are compared with the coincidental European Commission (EC) Joint Research Center (JRC) 1 km AVHRR fire products. Analyses of the TSDIS monthly fire products during the period from 1998 to 2003 manifested seasonal cycles of biomass fires over Southeast Asia, Africa, North America and South America. The data also showed interannual variations associated with the 98/99 ENS0 cycle in Central America and the Indonesian region. In order to understand the variability of global land fires and their effects on the distribution of atmospheric aerosols, statistical methods were applied to the TSDIS fire products as well as to the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index products for a period of five years from January 1998 to December 2002. The variability of global atmospheric aerosol is consistent with the fire variations over these regions during this period. The correlation between fire count and TOMS aerosol index is about 0.55 for fire pixels in Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and Africa. Parallel statistical analyses such as Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) methods were applied to pentad TRMM fire data and TOMS aerosol data. The EOF analyses showed contrast between North and South hemispheres and also inter- continental transitions in Africa and America. EOF and SSA analyses also identified 25-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations that were superimposed on the annual cycles of both fire and aerosol data. The intra-seasonal variability of fires showed similarity of tropical rainfall oscillation modes. The TRMM fire products were also compared to the coincident TRMh4 rainfall and other rainfall products to investigate the interaction between rainfall and fire. The results indicate that the annual, interannual and intraseasonal variability of fire are dominated by global rainfall variations. However, the feedback of fire to the rainfall occurrence at regional scale for certain regions is also evident.

Ji, Yi-Min↗
NASA NTRS2004

Chemistry and Transport in a Multi-Dimensional Model

Our work has two primary scientific goals, the interannual variability (IAV) of stratospheric ozone and the hydrological cycle of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Our efforts are aimed at integrating new information obtained by spacecraft and aircraft measurements to achieve a better understanding of the chemical and dynamical processes that are needed for realistic evaluations of human impact on the global environment. A primary motivation for studying the ozone layer is to separate the anthropogenic perturbations of the ozone layer from natural variability. Using the recently available merged ozone data (MOD), we have carried out an empirical orthogonal function EOF) study of the temporal and spatial patterns of the IAV of total column ozone in the tropics. The outstanding problem about water in the stratosphere is its secular increase in the last few decades. The Caltech/PL multi-dimensional chemical transport model (CTM) photochemical model is used to simulate the processes that control the water vapor and its isotopic composition in the stratosphere. Datasets we will use for comparison with model results include those obtained by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV and SBUV/2), Stratosphere Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE I and II), the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Atmospheric Trace Molecular Spectroscopy (ATMOS) and those soon to be obtained by the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) mission. The focus of the investigations is the exchange between the stratosphere and the troposphere, and between the troposphere and the biosphere.

Yung, Yuk L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Time Changes of the European Gravity Field from GRACE: A Comparison with Ground Measurements from Superconducting Gravimeters and with Hydrology Model Predictions

We investigate the time-variable gravity changes in Europe retrieved from the initial GRACE monthly solutions spanning a 18 month duration from April 2002 to October 2003. Gravity anomaly maps are retrieved in Central Europe from the monthly satellite solutions we compare the fields according to various truncation levels (typically between degree 10 and 20) of the initial fields (expressed in spherical harmonics to degree 120). For these different degrees, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of the time-variable gravity field leads us to its main spatial and temporal characteristics. We show that the dominant signal is found to be annual with an amplitude and a phase both in agreement with predictions in Europe modeled using snow and soil-moisture variations from recent hydrology models. We compare these GRACE gravity field changes to surface gravity observations from 6 superconducting gravimeters of the GGP (Global Geodynamics Project) European sub-network, with a special attention to loading corrections. Initial results suggest that all 3 data sets (GRACE, hydrology and GGP) are responding to annual changes in near-surface water in Europe of a few microGal (at length scales of approx.1000 km) that show a high value in winter and a summer minimum. We also point out that the GRACE gravity field evolution seems to indicate that there is a trend in gravity between summer 2002 and summer 2003 which can be related to the 2003 heatwave in Europe and its hydrological consequences (drought). Despite the limited time span of our analysis and the uncertainties in retrieving a regional solution from the network of gravimeters, the calibration and validation aspects of the GRACE data processing based on the annual hydrology cycle in Europe are in progress.

Hinderer, J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

High-Frequency Orographically Forced Variability in a Single-Layer Model of the Martian Atmosphere

A shallow water model with realistic topography and idealized zonal wind forcing is used toinvestigate orographically forced modes in the Martian atmosphere. Locally, the model reproduceswell the climatology at the sites of Viking Lander I and II (VL1 and VL2) as inferred from theViking Lander fall and spring observations. Its variability at those sites is dominated by a 3-sol(Martian solar day) oscillation in the region of VL1 and by a 6-sol oscillation in that of VL2. Theseoscillations are forced by the zonal asymmetries of the Martian mountain field. It is suggested thatthey contribute to the observed variability by reinforcing the baroclinic oscillations with nearbyperiods identified in observational studies. The spatial variability associated with the orographicallyforced oscillations is studied by means of extended empirical orthogonal function analysis. The 3-solVL1 oscillation corresponds to a tropical, eastward-traveling, zonal-wavenumber one pattern...

Keppenne, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Long-Term Validation and Variability of the Shortwave and Longwave Radiation Data of the GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Project

In this investigation, we make systematic Surface Radiation Budget-Baseline Surface Radiation Network (SRB-BSRN), Surface Radiation Data Centre (SRB-WRDC) and Surface Radiation Budget-Global Energy Balance Archive (SRB-GEBA) comparisons for both shortwave and longwave daily and monthly mean radiation fluxes at the Earth's surface. We first have an overview of all the comparable pairs of data in scatter or scatter density plots. Then we show the time series of the SRB data at grids in which there are ground sites where longterm records of data are available for comparison. An overall very good agreement between the SRB data and ground observations is found. To see the variability of the SRB data during the 21.5 years, we computed the global mean and its linear trend. No appreciable trend is detected at the 5% level. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the SRB deseasonalized shortwave downward flux are computed over the Pacific region, and the first EOF coefficient is found to be correlated with the ENSO Index at a high value of coefficient of 0.7083.

Zhang, Taiping↗
NASA NTRS2004

Satellite Observations of Spatial and Interannual Variability of Lightning and Radar Reflectivity

The authors use satellite data to examine the relationship between lightning and upper-level radar reflectivity. They find correlations between average flash rates and upper-level reflectivities over both land and ocean, although both flash rates and reflectivities are much lower over ocean than land. Analysis of the data using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) shows similar EOFs for averaged lightning and reflectivity. In contrast, the EOFs of the anomalies of lightning and reflectivity have different spatial patterns; however, both have principal component time series that are correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and, hence, El Nino. Differences in behavior of the lightning and reflectivity anomaly EOFs and principal components suggest that El Nino plays a smaller role in lightning anomaly than precipitation anomaly.

lightning↗
NASA NTRS2006

Annual Cycles of Surface Shortwave Radiative Fluxes

The annual cycles of surface shortwave flux are investigated using the 8-yr dataset of the surface radiation budget (SRB) components for the period July 1983-June 1991. These components include the downward, upward, and net shortwave radiant fluxes at the earth's surface. The seasonal cycles are quantified in terms of principal components that describe the temporal variations and empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) that describe the spatial patterns. The major part of the variation is simply due to the variation of the insolation at the top of the atmosphere, especially for the first term, which describes 92.4% of the variance for the downward shortwave flux. However, for the second term, which describes 4.1% of the variance, the effect of clouds is quite important and the effect of clouds dominates the third term, which describes 2.4% of the variance. To a large degree the second and third terms are due to the response of clouds to the annual cycle of solar forcing. For net shortwave flux at the surface, similar variances are described by each term. The regional values of the EOFs are related to climate classes, thereby defining the range of annual cycles of shortwave radiation for each climate class.

Wilber, Anne C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Mechanisms of Interannual Variations of the Meridional Overturning Circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean

The authors investigate the nature of the interannual variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the North Atlantic Ocean using an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) assimilation product for the period of 1993-2003. The time series of the first empirical orthogonal function of the MOC is found to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, while the associated circulation anomalies correspond to cells extending over the full ocean depth. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the wind is responsible for most of this interannual variability, at least south of 40(deg)N. A dynamical decomposition of the meridional streamfunction allows a further look into the mechanisms. In particular, the contributions associated with 1) the Ekman flow and its depth-independent compensation, 2) the vertical shear flow, and 3) the barotropic gyre flowing over zonally varying topography are examined. Ekman processes are found to dominate the shorter time scales (1.5-3 yr), while for longer time scales (3-10 yr) the MOC variations associated with vertical shear flow are of greater importance. The latter is primarily caused by heaving of the pycnocline in the western subtropics associated with the stronger wind forcing. Finally, how these changes in the MOC affect the meridional heat transport (MHT) is examined. It is found that overall, Ekman processes explain a larger part of interannual variability (3-10 yr) for MHT (57%) than for the MOC (33%).

meridional heat transport↗
NASA NTRS2007

TRMM-TMI Satellite Observed Soil Moisture and Vegetation Density (1998-2005) Show Strong Connection with El Nino in Eastern Australia

Spatiotemporal patterns in soil moisture and vegetation water content across mainland Australia were investigated from 1998 through 2005, using TRMMITMI passive microwave observations. The Empirical Orthogonal Function technique was used to extract dominant spatial and temporal patterns in retrieved estimates of moisture content for the top 1-cm of soil (theta) and vegetation moisture content (via optical depth tau). The dominant temporal theta and tau patterns were strongly correlated to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in spring (3 = 0.90), and to a progressively lesser extent autumn, summer and winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index also explained part of the variation in spring 8 and z. Cluster analysis suggested that the regions most affected by ENS0 are mainly located in eastern Australia. The results suggest that the drought conditions experienced in eastern Australia since 2000 an clearly expressed in these satellite observations have a strong connection with ENSO patterns.

Liu, Yi↗
NASA NTRS2010

Nonlinear Dynamics of Cantilever-Sample Interactions in Atomic Force Microscopy

The interaction of the cantilever tip of an atomic force microscope (AFM) with the sample surface is obtained by treating the cantilever and sample as independent systems coupled by a nonlinear force acting between the cantilever tip and a volume element of the sample surface. The volume element is subjected to a restoring force from the remainder of the sample that provides dynamical equilibrium for the combined systems. The model accounts for the positions on the cantilever of the cantilever tip, laser probe, and excitation force (if any) via a basis set of set of orthogonal functions that may be generalized to account for arbitrary cantilever shapes. The basis set is extended to include nonlinear cantilever modes. The model leads to a pair of coupled nonlinear differential equations that are solved analytically using a matrix iteration procedure. The effects of oscillatory excitation forces applied either to the cantilever or to the sample surface (or to both) are obtained from the solution set and applied to the to the assessment of phase and amplitude signals generated by various acoustic-atomic force microscope (A-AFM) modalities. The influence of bistable cantilever modes of on AFM signal generation is discussed. The effects on the cantilever-sample surface dynamics of subsurface features embedded in the sample that are perturbed by surface-generated oscillatory excitation forces and carried to the cantilever via wave propagation are accounted by the Bolef-Miller propagating wave model. Expressions pertaining to signal generation and image contrast in A-AFM are obtained and applied to amplitude modulation (intermittent contact) atomic force microscopy and resonant difference-frequency atomic force ultrasonic microscopy (RDF-AFUM). The influence of phase accumulation in A-AFM on image contrast is discussed, as is the effect of hard contact and maximum nonlinearity regimes of A-AFM operation.

Cantrell, John H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Warm Season Subseasonal Variability and Climate Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves

This study examines the nature of boreal summer subseasonal atmospheric variability based on the new NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the period 1979-2010. An analysis of the June, July and August subseasonal 250hPa v-wind anomalies shows distinct Rossby wave-like structures that appear to be guided by the mean jets. On monthly subseasonal time scales, the leading waves (the first 10 rotated empirical orthogonal functions or REOFs of the 250hPa v-wind) explain about 50% of the Northern Hemisphere vwind variability, and account for more than 30% (60%) of the precipitation (surface temperature) variability over a number of regions of the northern middle and high latitudes, including the U.S. northern Great Plains, parts of Canada, Europe, and Russia. The first REOF in particular, consists of a Rossby wave that extends across northern Eurasia where it is a dominant contributor to monthly surface temperature and precipitation variability, and played an important role in the 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat waves. While primarily subseasonal in nature, the Rossby waves can at times have a substantial seasonal mean component. This is exemplified by REOF 4 which played a major role in the development of the most intense anomalies of the U.S. 1988 drought (during June) and the 1993 flooding (during July), though differed in the latter event by also making an important contribution to the seasonal mean anomalies. A stationary wave model (SWM) is used to reproduce some of the basic features of the observed waves and provide insight into the nature of the forcing. In particular, the responses to a set of idealized forcing functions are used to map the optimal forcing patterns of the leading waves. Also, experiments to reproduce the observed waves with the SWM using MERRA-based estimates of the forcing indicate that the wave forcing is dominated by sub-monthly vorticity transients.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2011

Annual Cycle of Surface Longwave Radiation

The annual cycles of upward and downward longwave fluxes at the Earth s surface are investigated by use of the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Data Set. Because of the immense difference between the heat capacity of land and ocean, the surface of Earth is partitioned into these two categories. Principal component analysis is used to quantify the annual cycles. Over land, the first principal component describes over 95% of the variance of the annual cycle of the upward and downward longwave fluxes. Over ocean the first term describes more than 87% of these annual cycles. Empirical orthogonal functions show the corresponding geographical distributions of these cycles. Phase plane diagrams of the annual cycles of upward longwave fluxes as a function of net shortwave flux show the thermal inertia of land and ocean.

Mlynczak, Pamela E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗