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Open Source Software Prevalence Ingest Tool

The OSSP Ingest Tool accepts user-input organizational information, ingests IT/OT asset lists in Excel format, and ingests the associated CycloneDX SBOM's. It then performs analytics demonstrating the ability to answer the follow research questions: o RQ1. Ability to identify all OSS services running on, and all OSS components present within, an OT device o RQ1a: Ability to differentiate multiple versions of the same OSS component within each OT device. o RQ1b: Ability to differentiate running from not-running OSS components. o RQ1c: Ability to differentiate based on the originator of the component, because a supplier may have modified it after retrieval from the upstream software source. o RQ2. Ability to correlate the identity of a single OSS component across multiple OT devices, mitigating common name variations such as differences in capitalization, '-' vs '_', and so on. o RQ3. Ability to perform subset analysis of OSS components across multiple OT devices o RQ3a: Ability to perform subset analysis across OSS libraries, generating density & distribution graphs to identify commonly-used libraries and outliers. o RQ3b: Ability to perform subset analysis of a single OSS library, generating density & distribution by CI sector, by device type, by device make/model, and/or by firmware version. o RQ3c: Ability to perform subset analysis by grouping OSS libraries according to programming language, then overlay with RQ4b. o RQ3d: Ability to perform subset analysis by OSS upstream source, providing insight into degree of modifications performed by suppliers. o RQ4. Ability to identify dependencies (transitive and direct) of each differentiated OSS library within each OT device, and enable RQ1,2,3 iteratively for dependencies. o RQ1. Ability to identify all OSS services running on, and all OSS components present within, an OT device o RQ1a: Ability to differentiate multiple versions of the same OSS component within each OT device. o RQ1b: Ability Page

Kapadia, Shayna [Lawrence Livermore National Labor

Temporal Variability of Observed and Simulated Hyperspectral Earth Reflectance

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a climate observation system designed to study Earth's climate variability with unprecedented absolute radiometric accuracy and SI traceability. Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were developed using GCM output and MODTRAN to simulate CLARREO reflectance measurements during the 21st century as a design tool for the CLARREO hyperspectral shortwave imager. With OSSE simulations of hyperspectral reflectance, Feldman et al. [2011a,b] found that shortwave reflectance is able to detect changes in climate variables during the 21st century and improve time-to-detection compared to broadband measurements. The OSSE has been a powerful tool in the design of the CLARREO imager and for understanding the effect of climate change on the spectral variability of reflectance, but it is important to evaluate how well the OSSE simulates the Earth's present-day spectral variability. For this evaluation we have used hyperspectral reflectance measurements from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY), a shortwave spectrometer that was operational between March 2002 and April 2012. To study the spectral variability of SCIAMACHY-measured and OSSE-simulated reflectance, we used principal component analysis (PCA), a spectral decomposition technique that identifies dominant modes of variability in a multivariate data set. Using quantitative comparisons of the OSSE and SCIAMACHY PCs, we have quantified how well the OSSE captures the spectral variability of Earth?s climate system at the beginning of the 21st century relative to SCIAMACHY measurements. These results showed that the OSSE and SCIAMACHY data sets share over 99% of their total variance in 2004. Using the PCs and the temporally distributed reflectance spectra projected onto the PCs (PC scores), we can study the temporal variability of the observed and simulated reflectance spectra. Multivariate time series analysis of the PC scores using techniques such as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Multichannel SSA will provide information about the temporal variability of the dominant variables. Quantitative comparison techniques can evaluate how well the OSSE reproduces the temporal variability observed by SCIAMACHY spectral reflectance measurements during the first decade of the 21st century. PCA of OSSE-simulated reflectance can also be used to study how the dominant spectral variables change on centennial scales for forced and unforced climate change scenarios. To have confidence in OSSE predictions of the spectral variability of hyperspectral reflectance, it is first necessary for us to evaluate the degree to which the OSSE simulations are able to reproduce the Earth?s present-day spectral variability.

Roberts, Yolanda

Status of the NASA GMAO Observing System Simulation Experiment

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a pure modeling study used when actual observations are too expensive or difficult to obtain. OSSEs are valuable tools for determining the potential impact of new observing systems on numerical weather forecasts and for evaluation of data assimilation systems (DAS). An OSSE has been developed at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Errico et al 2013). The GMAO OSSE uses a 13-month integration of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts 2005 operational model at T511/L91 resolution for the Nature Run (NR). Synthetic observations have been updated so that they are based on real observations during the summer of 2013. The emulated observation types include AMSU-A, MHS, IASI, AIRS, and HIRS4 radiance data, GPS-RO, and conventional types including aircraft, rawinsonde, profiler, surface, and satellite winds. The synthetic satellite wind observations are colocated with the NR cloud fields, and the rawinsondes are advected during ascent using the NR wind fields. Data counts for the synthetic observations are matched as closely as possible to real data counts, as shown in Figure 2. Errors are added to the synthetic observations to emulate representativeness and instrument errors. The synthetic errors are calibrated so that the statistics of observation innovation and analysis increments in the OSSE are similar to the same statistics for assimilation of real observations, in an iterative method described by Errico et al (2013). The standard deviations of observation minus forecast (xo-H(xb)) are compared for the OSSE and real data in Figure 3. The synthetic errors include both random, uncorrelated errors, and an additional correlated error component for some observational types. Vertically correlated errors are included for conventional sounding data and GPS-RO, and channel correlated errors are introduced to AIRS and IASI (Figure 4). HIRS, AMSU-A, and MHS have a component of horizontally correlated error. The forecast model used by the GMAO OSSE is the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DAS. The model version has been updated to v. 5.13.3, corresponding to the current operational model. Forecasts are run on a cube-sphere grid with 180 points along each edge of the cube (approximately 0.5 degree horizontal resolution) with 72 vertical levels. The DAS is cycled at 6-hour intervals, with 240 hour forecasts launched daily at 0000 UTC. Evaluation of the forecasting skill for July and August is currently underway. Prior versions of the GMAO OSSE have been found to have greater forecasting skill than real world forecasts. It is anticipated that similar forecast skill will be found in the updated OSSE.

OSSE

Output Capacitance Loss of GaN HEMTs in Steady-State Switching

The output capacitance (C OSS ) loss, a loss produced when the device’s output capacitor is charged and discharged, has become a concern for GaN high electron mobility transistors (HEMTs) in high-frequency applications. This work presents a new, easy-to-implement method for the C OSS loss characterization based on the unclamped inductive switching (UIS) setup. As compared to prior approaches, this method involves the device’s ON-state conduction and could measure the C OSS loss in a single pulse and the steady-state switching. The C OSS loss of three types of mainstream commercial GaN HEMTs is characterized, which exhibit some common dependencies including a non-monotonic relation with the dv/dt (or resonance frequency), a linear relation with the ON-state current, a power-law relation with the peak blocking voltage, and little temperature dependence. In addition, their C OSS losses all show minimal distinctions in a single pulse and the steady-state switching, despite the increased on-resistance in the steady-state switching. Furthermore, this suggests that the traps accounting for the C OSS loss possess different de-trapping time constants as compared to the traps governing the dynamic on-resistance. Finally, a unified model is established to describe the C OSS loss of all three types of GaN HEMTs. These results provide important references for the high-frequency application of GaN HEMTs and new insights into the physical origin of their C OSS loss.1

42 ENGINEERING

On-orbit spacecraft servicing: An element in the evolution of space robotics applications

This paper addresses the renewed interest in on-orbit spacecraft servicing (OSS), and how it fits into the evolution of space applications for intelligent robots. Investment in the development of space robotics and associated technologies is growing as nations recognize that it is a critical component of the exploration and commercial development of space. At the same time, changes in world conditions have generated a renewal of the interest in OSS. This is reflected in the level of activity in the U.S., Japan and Europe in the form of studies and technology demonstration programs. OSS is becoming widely accepted as an opportunity in the evolution of space robotics applications. Importantly, it is a feasible proposition with current technologies and the direction of ongoing research and development activities. Interest in OSS dates back more than two decades, and several programs have been initiated, but no operational system has come on line, arguably with the Shuttle as the exception. With new opportunities arising, however, a fresh look at the feasibility of OSS is warranted. This involves the resolution of complex market, technical and political issues, through market studies, economic analyses, mission requirement definitions, trade studies, concept designs and technology demonstrations. System architectures for OSS are strongly dependent on target spacecraft design and launch delivery systems. Performance and cost factors are currently forcing significant changes in these areas. This presents both challenges and opportunities in the provision of OSS services. In conclusion, there is no question OSS will become a reality, but only when the technical feasibility is combined with either economic viability or political will. In the evolution of space robotics satellite servicing can become the next step towards its eventual role in support of planetary exploration and human beings' journey out into the universe.

Anders, Carl J.

The Gmao Hybrid 4d-Envar Observing System Simulation Experiment Framework.

This work describes the extension of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework to use a hybrid 4D-EnVar scheme instead of 3D-Var. The original 3D-Var and hybrid 4D-EnVar OSSEs use the same version of the data assimilation system (DAS) so that a direct comparison is possible in terms of the validation with respect to their corresponding real cases. Rather than quantifying the differences between the two data assimilation methodologies, a short inter-comparison of upgrading from a 3D- to a 4D-OSSE is provided to highlight aspects where this change matters to the OSSE community and to identify features of data assimilation that can only be explored in a four-dimensional OSSE framework. A short validation of the hybrid 4D-EnVar OSSE shows that conclusions from previous assessments of the 3D-Var OSSE in its ability to mimic the behavior of the real system still hold with the same caveats. Furthermore, some aspects of the ensemble configuration and behavior are discussed along with forecast sensitivity to observation impacts (FSOI). Estimates of error standard deviations are shown to be smaller in the hybrid 4D-EnVar OSSE but with little impact on the character of the error. A discussion on future work directions focuses on exploring the four-dimensional aspect such as the error distribution within the assimilation window or four-dimensional handling of high-temporal density observations.

Data assimilation

Robustness of Observing System Simulation Experiments

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are used to investigate the potential performance of proposed new instruments on numerical weather prediction (NWP). As OSSEs involve a framework in which the atmosphere and observations are all completely simulated, it is necessary to perform validation of the OSSE to ensure that it is sufficiently realistic to provide useful experimental results. A common issue that affects the forecast skill and observation impacts is the tendency of OSSEs to have insufficient model error compared to NWP in the real world. In this work, two versions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) NWP OSSE framework are compared, with the newer framework having more simulated forecast model error than the older framework due to changes to the NWP system. The performance of the updated OSSE is validated against corresponding behavior of the same NWP system in the real world in terms of the simulated observations, the analysis increments, forecast error, and observation impacts. OSSE results of analysis and forecast impacts for three proposed new observation systems are also compared between the older and newer frameworks to evaluate the robustness of the OSSE experiments and the role of model error in observation impacts. These three new instruments are the Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) hyperspectral infrared sounder (GXS), the Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and humidity in a Constellation for Winds (MISTiC Winds) atmospheric motion vectors, and additional Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultations (GNSS-RO).

Observing System Simulation Experiments

Capabilities of GRO/OSSE for observing solar flares

The launch of the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) near solar maximum makes solar flare studies early in the mission particularly advantageous. The Oriented Scintillation Spectrometer Experiment (OSSE) on GRO, covering the energy range 0.05 to 150 MeV, has some significant advantages over the previous generation of satellite-borne gamma-ray detectors for solar observations. The OSSE detectors will have about 10 times the effective area of the Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) on Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) for both photons and high-energy neutrons. The OSSE also has the added capability of distinguishing between high-energy neutrons and photons directly. The OSSE spectral accumulation time (approx. 4s) is four times faster than that of the SMM/GRS; much better time resolution is available in selected energy ranges. These characteristics will allow the investigation of particle acceleration in flares based on the evolution of the continuum and nuclear line components of flare spectra, nuclear emission in small flares, the anisotropy of continuum emission in small flares, and the relative intensities of different nuclear lines. The OSSE observational program will be devoted primarily to non-solar sources. Therefore, solar observations require planning and special configurations. The instrumental and operational characteristics of OSSE are discussed in the context of undertaking solar observations. The opportunities for guest investigators to participate in solar flare studies with OSSE is also presented.

Kurfess, J. D.

Office of Space Science: Integrated technology strategy

This document outlines the strategy by which the Office of Space Science, in collaboration with the Office of Advanced Concepts and Technology and the Office of Space Communications, will meet the challenge of the national technology thrust. The document: highlights the legislative framework within which OSS must operate; evaluates the relationship between OSS and its principal stakeholders; outlines a vision of a successful OSS integrated technology strategy; establishes four goals in support of this vision; provides an assessment of how OSS is currently positioned to respond to the goals; formulates strategic objectives to meet the goals; introduces policies for implementing the strategy; and identifies metrics for measuring success. The OSS Integrated Technology Strategy establishes the framework through which OSS will satisfy stakeholder expectations by teaming with partners in NASA and industry to develop the critical technologies required to: enhance space exploration, expand our knowledge of the universe, and ensure continued national scientific, technical and economic leadership.

Huntress, Wesley T., Jr.

The New Millenium Program: Serving Earth and Space Sciences

NASA has exciting plans for space science and Earth observations during the next decade. A broad range of advanced spacecraft and measurement technologies will be needed to support these plans within the existing budget and schedule constraints. Many of these technology needs are common to both NASA's Office of Earth Science (OES) and Office of Space Sciences (OSS). Even though some breakthrough technologies have been identified to address these needs, project managers have traditionally been reluctant to incorporate them into flight programs because their inherent development risk. To accelerate the infusion of new technologies into its OES and OSS missions, NASA established the New Millennium Program (NMP). This program analyzes the capability needs of these enterprises, identifies candidate technologies to address these needs, incorporates advanced technology suites into validation flights, validates them in the relevant space environment, and then proactively infuses the validated technologies into future missions to enhance their capabilities while reducing their life cycle cost. The NMP employs a cross-enterprise Science Working Group, the NASA Enterprise science and technology roadmaps to define the capabilities needed by future Earth and Space science missions. Additional input from the science community is gathered through open workshops and peer-reviewed NASA Research Announcement (NRAs) for advanced measurement concepts. Technology development inputs from the technology organizations within NASA, other government agencies, federally funded research and development centers (FFRDC's), U.S. industry, and academia are sought to identify breakthrough technologies that might address these needs. This approach significantly extends NASA's technology infrastructure. To complement other flight test programs that develop or validate of individual components, the NMP places its highest priority on system-level validations of technology suites in the relevant space environment. This approach is not needed for all technologies, but it is usually essential to validate advanced system architectures or new measurement concepts. The NMP has recently revised its processes for defining candidate validation flights, and selecting technologies for these flights. The NMP now employs integrated project formulation teams, 'Which include scientists, technologists, and mission planners, to incorporate technology suites into candidate validation flights. These teams develop competing concepts, which can be rigorously evaluated prior to selection for flight. The technology providers for each concept are selected through an open, competitive, process during the project formulation phase. If their concept is selected for flight, they are incorporated into the Project Implementation Team, which develops, integrates, tests, launches, and operates the technology validation flight. Throughout the project implementation phase, the Implementation Team will document and disseminate their validation results to facilitate the infusion of their validated technologies into future OSS and OES science missions. The NMP has successfully launched its first two Deep Space flights for the OSS, and is currently implementing its first two Earth Orbiting flights for the OES. The next OSS and OES flights are currently being defined. Even though these flights are focused on specific Space Science and Earth Science themes, they are designed to validate a range of technologies that could benefit both enterprises, including advanced propulsion, communications, autonomous operations and navigation, multifunctional structures, microelectronics, and advanced instruments. Specific examples of these technologies will be provided in our presentation. The processes developed by the NMP also provide benefits across the Space and Earth Science enterprises. In particular, the extensive, nation-wide technology infrastructure developed by the NMP enhances the access to breakthrough technologies for both enterprises.

Li, Fuk K.

Observing System Simulation Experiments to Determine the Potential Impact of Space-Based Lidar Wind Profiles on Weather Prediction

Observing system simulation experiments (OSSE's) provide an effective means to evaluate the potential impact of a proposed observing system, as well as to determine tradeoffs in their design, and to evaluate data assimilation methodology. Great care must be taken to ensure realism of the OSSE's, and in the interpretation of OSSE results. All of the OSSE's that have been conducted to date have demonstrated tremendous potential for space-based wind profile data to improve atmospheric analyses, forecasts, and research. This has been true for differing data assimilation systems, analysis methodology, and model resolutions. OSSE's clearly show much greater potential for observations of the complete wind profile than for single-level wind data or observations of the boundary layer alone.

Atlas, Robert

Evaluation of the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run

This report documents an evaluation by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) of a two-year 7-km-resolution non-hydrostatic global mesoscale simulation produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The simulation was produced as a Nature Run for conducting observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Generation of the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) was motivated in part by the desire of the OSSE community for an improved high-resolution sequel to an existing Nature Run produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has served the community for several years. The intended use of the G5NR in this context is for generating simulated observations to test proposed observing system designs regarding new instruments and their deployments. Because NASA's interest in OSSEs extends beyond traditional weather forecasting applications, the G5NR includes, in addition to standard meteorological components, a suite of aerosol types and several trace gas concentrations, with emissions downscaled to 10 km using ancillary information such as power plant location, population density and night-light information. The evaluation exercise described here involved more than twenty-five GMAO scientists investigating various aspects of the G5NR performance, including time mean temperature and wind fields, energy spectra, precipitation and the hydrological cycle, the representation of waves, tropical cyclones and midlatitude storms, land and ocean surface characteristics, the representation and forcing effects of clouds and radiation, dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere, and the representation of aerosols and trace gases. Comparisons are made with observational data sets when possible, as well as with reanalyses and other long model simulations. The evaluation is broad in scope, as it is meant to assess the overall realism of basic aspects of the G5NR deemed relevant to the conduct of OSSEs. However, because of the relatively short record and other practical considerations, these comparisons cannot provide a definitive, statistically sound assessment of all model deficiencies, or guarantee the G5NR's suitability for all OSSE applications. Differences between the observed and simulated behavior also must be judged in the context of basic internal atmospheric variability which can introduce variations that are not necessarily controlled by the prescribed sea surface temperatures used in generating the G5NR. The results show that the G5NR performs well as measured by the majority of metrics applied in this evaluation. Particular benefits derived from the 7-km resolution of G5NR include realistic representations of extreme weather events in both the tropics and extratropics including tropical cyclones, Nor'easters and mesoscale convective complexes; improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land; well-resolved surface-atmosphere interactions such as katabatic wind flows over Antarctica and Greenland; and resolution of orographically generated gravity waves that propagate into the upper atmosphere and influence the large scale circulation. Obvious deficiencies in the G5NR include a "splitting" of the inter-tropical convergence zone, which leads to a weaker-than-observed Hadley circulation and related deficiencies in the depiction of stationary wave patterns. Also, while the G5NR captures global cloud features and radiative effects well in general, close comparison with observations reveals higher-than-observed cloud brightness, likely due to an overabundance of cloud condensate; less distinct cloud minima in subtropical subsidence zones, consistent with a weak Hadley circualtion; and too few near-coastal marine stratocumulus clouds.

GEOS-5

Observing System Simulations for Small Satellite Formations Estimating Bidirectional Reflectance

The bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) gives the reflectance of a target as a function of illumination geometry and viewing geometry, hence carries information about the anisotropy of the surface. BRDF is needed in remote sensing for the correction of view and illumination angle effects (for example in image standardization and mosaicing), for deriving albedo, for land cover classification, for cloud detection, for atmospheric correction, and other applications. However, current spaceborne instruments provide sparse angular sampling of BRDF and airborne instruments are limited in the spatial and temporal coverage. To fill the gaps in angular coverage within spatial, spectral and temporal requirements, we propose a new measurement technique: Use of small satellites in formation flight, each satellite with a VNIR (visible and near infrared) imaging spectrometer, to make multi-spectral, near-simultaneous measurements of every ground spot in the swath at multiple angles. This paper describes an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) to evaluate the proposed concept and select the optimal formation architecture that minimizes BRDF uncertainties. The variables of the OSSE are identified; number of satellites, measurement spread in the view zenith and relative azimuth with respect to solar plane, solar zenith angle, BRDF models and wavelength of reflection. Analyzing the sensitivity of BRDF estimation errors to the variables allow simplification of the OSSE, to enable its use to rapidly evaluate formation architectures. A 6-satellite formation is shown to produce lower BRDF estimation errors, purely in terms of angular sampling as evaluated by the OSSE, than a single spacecraft with 9 forward-aft sensors. We demonstrate the ability to use OSSEs to design small satellite formations as complements to flagship mission data. The formations can fill angular sampling gaps and enable better BRDF products than currently possible.

small satellite

Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) Sensitivity Analysis Experiment

Geostationary Coastal and Air pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) is a NASA decadal survey mission to be designed to provide surface reflectance at high spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions from a geostationary orbit necessary for studying regional-scale air quality issues and their impact on global atmospheric composition processes. GEO-CAPE's Atmospheric Science Questions explore the influence of both gases and particles on air quality, atmospheric composition, and climate. The objective of the GEO-CAPE Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is to analyze the sensitivity of ozone to the global and regional NOx emissions and improve the science impact of GEO-CAPE with respect to the global air quality. The GEO-CAPE OSSE team at Jet propulsion Laboratory has developed a comprehensive OSSE framework that can perform adjoint-sensitivity analysis for a wide range of observation scenarios and measurement qualities. This report discusses the OSSE framework and presents the sensitivity analysis results obtained from the GEO-CAPE OSSE framework for seven observation scenarios and three instrument systems.

Lee, Meemong

Tools for Performing SBG hyperspectral Observing System Simulation Experiment

One of NASA’s Decadal Survey mission, Surface Biology and Geology (SBG), will include a hyperspectral remote sensing imager, which has a very high spatial resolution and a wide spectral coverage (from UV to Near IR). Unprecedented large data volumes will be generated by the SBG hyperspectral instrument. Before the launch of the new satellite, an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) can be used to study different designs of the new satellite system. One of the key components in an OSSE study is a radiative transfer model (RTM) or forward model. In this presentation, we will describe a Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) which is capable of simulating atmospheric (TOA) radiance or reflectance spectra from far IR to visible and UV spectral regions (50 wavenumber to 30000 wavenumber) quickly and accurately. Multiple scattering from multiple layers of clouds/aerosols are included in the model. The PCRTM has a very good accuracy relative to reference line-by-line radiative transfer models (LBLRTM), and it saves 3-4 orders of magnitude computational time relative to LBLRTM or MODTRAN. The PCRTM model has been successfully used to analyze large volumes of data from hyperspectral sensors such as AIRS, CrIS, and IASI. It has also been used to perform OSSE studies for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission. Another useful tool for the OSSE is surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) database. It is very crucial for the SBG OSSE to include realistic BRDF spectra. Currently, most of the surface reflectance spectra such as those in the ECOSIS and ECOSTRESS are measured at specific observation geometries. We have developed a hyperspectral bidirectional reflectance (HSBR) model which combines Ross-Li BRDF model with the existing reflectance spectral libraries using a principal component analysis. This HSBR model can provide realistic BRDF spectra under various observation conditions. It can also be used to generate realistic BRDF spectra using measurements from multi-band imagers or spectrometers such as MODIS or VIIRS.

Xu Liu

The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

Model Error

Observing System Simulation Experiments: An Overview

An overview of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) will be given, with focus on calibration and validation of OSSE frameworks. Pitfalls and practice will be discussed, including observation error characteristics, incestuousness, and experimental design. The potential use of OSSEs for investigation of the behaviour of data assimilation systems will be explored, including some results from experiments using the NASAGMAO OSSE.

OSSE

Observing System Simulation Experiments: An Overview

An overview of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) will be given, with focus on calibration and validation of OSSE frameworks. Pitfalls and practice will be discussed, including observation error characteristics, incestuousness, and experimental design. The potential use of OSSEs for investigation of the behaviour of data assimilation systems will be explored, including some results from experiments using the NASAGMAO OSSE.

OSSE