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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Optimal sensing on an asymmetric exceptional surface

We study the connection between exceptional points (EPs) and optimal parameter estimation, in a simple system consisting of two counterpropagating traveling wave modes in a microring resonator. The unknown parameter to be estimated is the strength of a perturbing cross-coupling between the two modes. Partially reflecting the output of one mode into the other creates a non-Hermitian Hamiltonian that exhibits a family of EPs, creating an exceptional surface (ES). We use a fully quantum treatment of field inputs and noise sources to obtain a quantitative bound on the estimation error by calculating the quantum Fisher information (QFI) in the output fields, whose inverse gives the Cramér-Rao lower bound on the mean-squared error of any unbiased estimator. We determine the bounds for two input states, namely, a semiclassical coherent state and a highly nonclassical NOON state. We find that the QFI is enhanced in the presence of an EP for both of these input states and that both states can saturate the Cramér-Rao bound. We then identify idealized yet experimentally feasible measurements that achieve the minimum bound for these two input states. We also investigate how the QFI changes for parameter values that do not lie on the ES, finding that these can have a larger QFI, suggesting alternative routes to optimize the parameter estimation for this problem.

Exceptional points↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parametric analysis on optimized design of hybrid solar power plants

There is increasing interest in utility-scale solar power plants with storage which can flexibly dispatch renewable energy to the grid. However, plant design possesses many degrees of freedom and non-obvious trade-offs in performance. Software tools can estimate or optimize the performance of a specific plant configuration under market and weather conditions of interest; the associated cost parameters and operating assumptions strongly influence estimates of plant performance and decisions regarding optimal sizing. We employ the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform, which incorporates optimal dispatch when evaluating plant performance, and investigate the sensitivity to weather and market conditions, operating limitations, and the presence of a capacity-based incentive. We demonstrate changes in plant performance and optimal sizing with respect to these inputs and discuss implications. Here results show that PV-with-battery designs are more profitable under our assumptions, but that designs including a concentrated solar power (CSP) system produce significantly greater annual energy; and that CSP-with-thermal energy storage designs maximizing the benefit-to-cost ratio have an input-dependent linear relationship between the CSP field solar multiple and the hours of storage as the project budget varies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the value of jointly optimized electric power generation and end use: a study of ISO-scale load shaping applied to the residential building stock

A generation-to-load simulation estimated the impact, in terms of production costs and CO2 emissions, attributable to the joint optimization of electric power generation and flexible end uses to support increasing penetrations of renewable energy. Newly conceived, evaluated, and foundational in developing a U.S. National Standard was a transaction-less yet continuous demand response system based on a day-ahead optimum load shape (OLS) designed to encourage Internet-connected devices to autonomously and voluntarily explore options to favour lowest cost generators - without requiring two-way communications, personally identifiable information, or customer opt-in. Boundary conditions used for model calibration included historical weather, residential building stock construction attributes, home appliance and device empirical operating schedules, prototypical power distribution feeder models, thermal generator heat rates, startup and ramping constraints, and fuel costs. Results of an hourly-based annual case study of Texas indicate a 1/3 reduction in production costs and a 1/5 reduction in CO2 emissions are possible.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

OEDI—Solar Grid Integration Data and Analytics Library

As a part of the Open Energy Data Initiative, this effort aims to develop and demonstrate novel distribution state estimation, control optimization, and transient analysis as well as provide access to data, data integration, and mapping information. More specifically, the focus of the effort will be on physics-based distribution system state estimation, hybrid (physics-based and machine learning) distribution optimal power flow, and event detection/analysis for solar integration and analytics. This work will enable reproducible, robust, replicable, and generalizable R&D in simulation and emulation of solar system integration. These test models and datasets will provide an integrated library for developing and testing power system operation technologies. To make the library user-friendly, this project will provide data curation tools such as data translators, mapping scripts and APIs, database schemas and metadata, interfaces and user dashboard, source code for the reference algorithms, description of the use-cases/scenarios, and comprehensive information on all the assumptions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization-Based Fast-Frequency Estimation and Control of Low-Inertia Microgrids

The lack of inertial response from non-synchronous, inverter-based generation in microgrids makes the power system vulnerable to a large rate of change of frequency (ROCOF) and frequency excursions. Energy storage systems (ESSs) can be utilized to provide fast-frequency support to prevent such large excursions in the system. However, fast-frequency support is a power-intensive application that has a significant impact on the ESS lifetime. In this paper, a framework that allows the ESS operator to provide fast-frequency support as a service is proposed. The framework maintains the desired quality-of-service (limiting the ROCOF and frequency) while taking into account the ESS lifetime and physical limits. The framework utilizes moving horizon estimation (MHE) to estimate the frequency deviation and ROCOF from noisy phase-locked loop (PLL) measurements. These estimates are employed by a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that computes control actions by solving a finite-horizon, online optimization problem. Additionally, this approach avoids oscillatory behavior induced by delays that are common when using low-pass filters as with traditional derivative-based (virtual inertia) controllers. MATLAB/Simulink simulations on a test system from Cordova, Alaska, show the effectiveness of the MHE-MPC approach to reduce frequency deviations and ROCOF of a low-inertia microgrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

How good are learning-based control v.s. model-based control for load shifting? Investigations on a single zone building energy system

Both model predictive control (MPC) and deep reinforcement learning control (DRL) have been presented as a way to approximate the true optimality of a dynamic programming problem, and these two have shown significant operational cost saving potentials for building energy systems. Furthermore, there is still a lack of in-depth quantitative studies on their approximation levels to the true optimality, especially in the building energy domain. To fill in the gap, this paper provides a numerical framework that enables the evaluation of the optimality levels of different controllers for building energy systems. This framework is then used to comprehensively compare the optimal control performance of both MPC and DRL controllers with given computation budgets for a single zone fan coil unit system. Note the optimality is estimated based on a user-specific selection of trade-off weights among energy costs, thermal comfort and control slew rates. Compared with the best optimality we can find through expensive optimization simulations, the best DRL agent can maximally approximate the optimality by 96.54%, which outperforms the best MPC whose optimality level is 90.11%. However, due to the stochasticity, the DRL agent is only expected to approximate the optimality by 90.42%, which is almost equivalent to the best MPC. Except for Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), all DRL agents can have a better approximation to the optimality than the best MPC, and are expected to have better approximation than the MPC with a prediction horizon of 32 steps (15 min per step). In terms of reducing energy cost and thermal discomfort, MPC can outperform the rule-based control (RBC) by 18.47%–25.44%. DRL can be expected to outperform RBC by 18.95%–25.65% ,and the best DRL control policy can outperform RBC by 20.29%–29.72%. Although the comparison of the optimality level is performed in a perfect setting, e.g., MPC assumes perfect models, and DRL assumes a perfect offline training process and online deployment process, this can shed insight on their capabilities of approximating to the original dynamic programming problem.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advances in statistical methods for cancer surveillance research: an age-period-cohort perspective

Background: Analysis of Lexis diagrams (population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates indexed by age group and calendar period) requires specialized statistical methods. However, existing methods have limitations that can now be overcome using new approaches. Methods: We assembled a “toolbox” of novel methods to identify trends and patterns by age group, calendar period, and birth cohort. We evaluated operating characteristics across 152 cancer incidence Lexis diagrams compiled from United States (US) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program data for 21 leading cancers in men and women in four race and ethnicity groups (the “cancer incidence panel”). Results: Nonparametric singular values adaptive kernel filtration (SIFT) decreased the estimated root mean squared error by 90% across the cancer incidence panel. A novel method for semi-parametric age-period-cohort analysis (SAGE) provided optimally smoothed estimates of age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions and stabilized estimates of lack-of-fit (LOF). SAGE identified statistically significant birth cohort effects across the entire cancer panel; LOF had little impact. As illustrated for colon cancer, newly developed methods for comparative age-period-cohort analysis can elucidate cancer heterogeneity that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to discern using standard methods. Conclusions: Cancer surveillance researchers can now identify fine-scale temporal signals with unprecedented accuracy and elucidate cancer heterogeneity with unprecedented specificity. Birth cohort effects are ubiquitous modulators of cancer incidence in the US. The novel methods described here can advance cancer surveillance research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal 1D Ly α forest power spectrum estimation – I. DESI-lite spectra

ABSTRACT The 1D Ly α forest flux power spectrum P1D is sensitive to scales smaller than a typical galaxy survey, and hence ties to the intergalactic medium’s thermal state, suppression from neutrino masses, and new dark matter models. It has emerged as a competitive framework to study new physics, but also has come with various challenges and systematic errors in analysis. In this work, we revisit the optimal quadratic estimator for P1D, which is robust against the relevant problems such as pixel masking, time evolution within spectrum, and quasar continuum errors. We further improve the estimator by introducing a fiducial power spectrum, which enables us to extract more information by alleviating the discreteness of band powers. We meticulously apply our method to synthetic Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) spectra and demonstrate how the estimator overcomes each challenge. We further apply an optimization scheme that approximates the Fisher matrix to three elements per row and reduces computation time by 60 per cent. We show that we can achieve per cent precision in P1D with 5-yr DESI data in the absence of systematics and provide forecasts for different spectral qualities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Boosting the Performance of Plug-and-Play Priors via Denoiser Scaling

Plug-and-play priors (PnP) is an image reconstruction framework that utilizes an image denoiser as an imaging prior. Unlike traditional regularized inversion, PnP does not require the prior to be expressible in the form of a regularization function. This flexibility enables PnP algorithms to exploit the most effective image denoisers, leading to their state-of-the-art performance in various imaging tasks. However, many powerful denoisers, such as the ones based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs), do not have tunable parameters that would allow controlling their influence within PnP. To address this issue, in this paper, we introduce a scaling parameter that adjusts the magnitude of the denoiser input and output. We theoretical justify the denoiser scaling from the perspectives of proximal optimization, statistical estimation, and consensus equilibrium. Finally, we provide numerical experiments demonstrating the ability of denoiser scaling to systematically improve the performance of PnP for denoising CNN priors that do not have explicitly tunable parameters.

Boosting↗
DOE OSTI2021

The influence of fire aerosols on surface climate and gross primary production in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

Fire-emitted aerosols play an important role in influencing Earth’s climate, directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by influencing cloud microphysics. The quantification of fire-aerosol interactions, however, remains challenging and subject to uncertainties in emissions, plume parameterizations, and aerosol properties. Here we optimized fire-associated aerosol emissions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) using the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations during 1997-2016. Furthermore, we distributed fire emissions vertically using smoke plume heights from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) satellite observations. From the optimization, we estimate that global fires emit 45.5 Tg y -1 of primary particulate organic matter and 3.9 Tg y -1 of black carbon. We then performed two climate simulations with and without the optimized fire emissions. We find that fire aerosols significantly increase global AOD by 14 ± 7% and contribute to a reduction in net shortwave radiation at the surface (-2.3 ± 0.5 W m -2 ). Together, fire-induced direct and indirect aerosol effects cause annual mean global land surface air temperature to decrease by 0.17 ± 0.15°C, relative humidity to increase by 0.4 ± 0.3%, and diffuse light fraction to increase by 0.5 ± 0.3%. In response, GPP declines by 2.8 Pg C y -1 , as a result of large positive drivers (decreases in temperature and increases in humidity and diffuse light) nearly cancelling out large negative drivers (decreases shortwave radiation and soil moisture). Our analysis highlights the importance of fire aerosols in modifying surface climate and photosynthesis across the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural Networks to Find the Optimal Forcing for Offsetting the Anthropogenic Climate Change Effects

Abstract Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity. Significance Statement Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.

Ren, Huiying↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weighted FFT estimators for 1D and 3D correlations of the Lyman- α forest

Correlations in the Lyman-α (Lyα) forest, both as a function of line of sight separation (1D) and 3D separation, provide a unique window to the distribution of matter at redshifts not accessible by current galaxy surveys. While optimal quadratic estimators have been used to measure 1D correlations, they are computationally expensive and difficult to extend to 3D analyses. On the other hand, estimators based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) are significantly faster, but are affected by missing data in the spectra (masked pixels) and so far have not used pixel weights to reduce the uncertainties in the measurement. In this publication we describe how to compute the window matrix that enables forward-modelling the impact of masked pixels and weights on the FFT-based estimators. Here, we use Gaussian and hydrodynamical simulations with artificially masked pixels to validate the method on the measurement of 1D correlations. Finally, we show that the formalism can be extended to model the impact on 3D correlations, in particular on the cross-spectrum, the correlation of 1D Fourier modes as a function of transverse separation. This work will enable more precise clustering measurements with the Lyα forest dataset recently collected by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI).

Lokken, Martine [Univ. Autonoma de Barcelona (Spai↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Leaf Chlorophyll Concentration of Sorghum from Hyperspectral Data Using Derivative Calculus and Machine Learning

Leaf chlorophyll concentration (LCC) is an important indicator of plant health, vigor, physiological status, productivity, and nutrient deficiencies. Hyperspectral spectroscopy at leaf level has been widely used to estimate LCC accurately and non-destructively. This study utilized leaf-level hyperspectral data with derivative calculus and machine learning to estimate LCC of sorghum. We calculated fractional derivative (FD) orders starting from 0.2 to 2.0 with 0.2 order increments. Additionally, 43 common vegetation indices (VIs) were calculated from leaf spectral reflectance factor to make comparisons with reflectance-based data. Within the modeling pipeline, three feature selection methods were assessed: Pearson’s correlation coefficient (PCC), partial least squares based variable importance in the projection (VIP), and random forest-based mean decrease impurity (MDI). Finally, we used partial least squares regression (PLSR), random forest regression (RFR), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme learning regression (ELR) to estimate the LCC of sorghum. Results showed that: (1) increasing derivative order can show improved model performance until certain order for reflectance-based analysis; however, it is inconclusive to state that a particular order is optimal for estimating LCC of sorghum; (2) VI-based modeling outperformed derivative augmented reflectance factor-based modeling; (3) mean decrease impurity was found effective in selecting sensitive features from large feature space (reflectance-based analysis), whereas simple Pearson’s correlation coefficient worked better with smaller feature space (VI-based analysis); and (4) SVR outperformed all other models within reflectance-based analysis; alternatively, ELR with VIs from original reflectance yielded slightly better results compared to all other models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multilevel Monte Carlo Estimators For Derivative-Free Optimization Under Uncertainty

Optimization is a key tool for scientific and engineering applications; however, in the presence of models affected by uncertainty, the optimization formulation needs to be extended to consider statistics of the quantity of interest. Optimization under uncertainty (OUU) deals with this endeavor and requires uncertainty quantification analyses at several design locations; i.e., its overall computational cost is proportional to the cost of performing a forward uncertainty analysis at each design location. An OUU workflow has two main components: an inner loop strategy for the computation of statistics of the quantity of interest, and an outer loop optimization strategy tasked with finding the optimal design, given a merit function based on the inner loop statistics. Here, in this work, we propose to alleviate the cost of the inner loop uncertainty analysis by leveraging the so-called multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method, which is able to allocate resources over multiple models with varying accuracy and cost. The resource allocation problem in MLMC is formulated by minimizing the computational cost given a target variance for the estimator. We consider MLMC estimators for statistics usually employed in OUU workflows and solve the corresponding allocation problem. For the outer loop, we consider a derivative-free optimization strategy implemented in the SNOWPAC library; our novel strategy is implemented and released in the Dakota software toolkit. We discuss several numerical test cases to showcase the features and performance of our approach with respect to its Monte Carlo single fidelity counterpart.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data compression and covariance matrix inspection: Cosmic shear

Covariance matrices are among the most difficult pieces of end-to-end cosmological analyses. In principle, for two-point functions, each component involves a four-point function, and the resulting covariance often has hundreds of thousands of elements. We investigate various compression mechanisms capable of vastly reducing the size of the covariance matrix in the context of cosmic shear statistics. This helps identify which of its parts are most crucial to parameter estimation. We start with simple compression methods, by isolating and “removing” 200 modes associated with the lowest eigenvalues, then those with the lowest signal-to-noise ratio, before moving on to more sophisticated schemes like compression at the tomographic level and, finally, with the massively optimized parameter estimation and data compression (MOPED). We find that, while most of these approaches prove useful for a few parameters of interest, like Ω m , the simplest yield a loss of constraining power on the intrinsic alignment (IA) parameters as well as S 8 . For the case considered—cosmic shear from the first year of data from the Dark Energy Survey—only MOPED was able to replicate the original constraints in the 16-parameter space. Finally, we apply a tolerance test to the elements of the compressed covariance matrix obtained with MOPED and confirm that the IA parameter A IA is the most susceptible to inaccuracies in the covariance matrix.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values, assuming uniformly distributed wind directions. For a spacing of five rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10 %, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain equivalent to 3.24 % of wake losses recovered, compared to 1.42 % of wake losses recovered with yaw offsets optimized for static wind directions. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

An optimized search for dark matter in the galactic halo with HAWC

The Galactic Halo is a key target for indirect dark matter detection. The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory is a high-energy (~300 GeV to >100 TeV) gamma-ray detector located in central Mexico. HAWC operates via the water Cherenkov technique and has both a wide field of view of ~ 2 sr and a >95% duty cycle, making it ideal for analyses of highly extended sources. We made use of these properties of HAWC and a new background-estimation technique optimized for extended sources to probe a large region of the Galactic Halo for dark matter signals. With this approach, we set improved constraints on dark matter annihilation and decay between masses of 10 and 100 TeV. Due to the large spatial extent of the HAWC field of view, these constraints are robust against uncertainties in the Galactic dark matter spatial profile.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗