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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Multi-Objective Cost of Uncertainty

Various real-world applications involve modeling complex systems with immense uncertainty and optimizing multiple objectives based on the uncertain model. Quantifying the impact of the model uncertainty on the given operational objectives is critical for designing optimal experiments that can most effectively reduce the uncertainty that affect the objectives pertinent to the application at hand. In this paper, we propose the concept of mean multi-objective cost of uncertainty (multi-objective MOCU) that can be used for objective-based quantification of uncertainty for complex uncertain systems considering multiple operational objectives. We provide several illustrative examples that demonstrate the concept and strengths of the proposed multi-objective MOCU. Furthermore, we present a real-world example based on the mammalian cell cycle network to demonstrate how the multi-objective MOCU can be used for quantifying the operational impact of model uncertainty when there are multiple, possibly competing, objectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification for equations of state: copper as an example

Equations of state are essential for providing a fundamental description of materials properties in thermodynamic equilibrium and are used to provide closure relations for hydrodynamics simulations. Generally, equations of state rely on simple physics-based parameterized materials models to inform on the free energy of a material through out a given thermodynamic state space. Historically the parameters of these models have been tuned by hand to fit various experimental data. However, modern optimization and uncertainty quantification techniques allow us to quickly test thousands of parameter combinations and obtain meaningful uncertainty estimates on the parameters, opening opportunities for assessing systematic uncertainties in experiments, assessing model adequacy, and more. In this report, we use Bayesian inference to fit the solid (fcc) equation of state of copper. We focus on fitting five different experimental datasets, including the isobaric density, isobaric heat capacity, room temperature isotherm, principal isentrope, and principal Hugoniot. We fit all five data types simultaneously, and then explore the extent to which combinations of 2 subsets of the 5 datasets can constrain the EOS parameters, as compared to the fit to all 5. This information is useful for investigating the extent to which different datasets can con strain EOS models and thereby help guide experimental investigations in order to best constrain the EOS. We also discuss ways that the methodologies can be used to investigate systematic discrepancies between experiments, as well as how the methods can be used to assess model uncertainty. The framework we develop is general, in that it can be used with a variety of optimization or uncertainty quantification techniques and with a variety of data sources, including both experimental and ab-inito data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-fidelity machine-learning with uncertainty quantification and Bayesian optimization for materials design: Application to ternary random alloys

We present a scale-bridging approach based on a multi-fidelity (MF) machine-learning (ML) framework leveraging Gaussian processes (GP) to fuse atomistic computational model predictions across multiple levels of fidelity. Through the posterior variance of the MFGP, our framework naturally enables uncertainty quantification, providing estimates of confidence in the predictions. We used density functional theory as high-fidelity prediction, while a ML interatomic potential is used as low-fidelity prediction. Practical materials’ design efficiency is demonstrated by reproducing the ternary composition dependence of a quantity of interest (bulk modulus) across the full aluminum–niobium–titanium ternary random alloy composition space. The MFGP is then coupled to a Bayesian optimization procedure, and the computational efficiency of this approach is demonstrated by performing an on-the-fly search for the global optimum of bulk modulus in the ternary composition space. The framework presented in this manuscript is the first application of MFGP to atomistic materials simulations fusing predictions between density functional theory and classical interatomic potential calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

State-of-the-Art Techniques for Large-Scale Stochastic Unit Commitment

Recent advances in deterministic unit commitment, both formulaic and algorithmic, along with modern algorithmic approaches for stochastic programming, have enabled the solution of stochastic unit commitment problems with hundreds of scenarios on large-scale transmission networks. In this presentation, we will give an overview of these methods, including lazy transmission constraint generation, lower-bounding techniques, and heuristics, all of which can be executed in concert with customized decomposition approaches for optimization under uncertainty. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques on the TAMU Texas7K synthetic transmission network, leveraging realistic high-resolution forecasts based on NREL renewable resource availability data. The software leveraged for these demonstrations is available via the open-source software packages EGRET (for electrical grid optimization) and mpi-sppy (for optimization under uncertainty).

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Look-Ahead Commitment: A Case Study in MISO

This paper introduces the Stochastic Look Ahead Commitment (SLAC) software prototyped and tested for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) look ahead commitment process. SLAC can incorporate hundreds of wind, load, and net scheduled interchange (NSI) uncertainty scenarios. It uses a progressive hedging method to solve a novel two-stage stochastic unit commitment. The first stage commitment decisions, made only for those generators whose decision to commit or not in each time period cannot be deferred, can cover the uncertainties within the next three hours. The second stage includes both the dispatch for each of the scenarios and the commitment decisions that can be deferred. Study results on 15 MISO production days show that SLAC may bring economic and reliability benefits under uncertainty.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal design of acoustic metamaterial cloaks under uncertainty

In this work, we consider the problem of optimal design of an acoustic cloak under uncertainty and develop scalable approximation and optimization methods to solve this problem. The design variable is taken as an infinite-dimensional spatially-varying field that represents the material property, while an additive infinite-dimensional random field represents the variability of the material property or the manufacturing error. Discretization of this optimal design problem results in high-dimensional design variables and uncertain parameters. To solve this problem, we develop a computational approach based on a Taylor approximation and an approximate Newton method for optimization, which is based on a Hessian derived at the mean of the random field. We show our approach is scalable with respect to the dimension of both the design variables and uncertain parameters, in the sense that the necessary number of acoustic wave propagations is essentially independent of these dimensions, for numerical experiments with up to one million design variables and half a million uncertain parameters. Additionally, we demonstrate that, using our computational approach, an optimal design of the acoustic cloak that is robust to material uncertainty is achieved in a tractable manner. The optimal design under uncertainty problem is posed and solved for the classical circular obstacle surrounded by a ring-shaped cloaking region, subjected to both a single-direction single-frequency incident wave and multiple-direction multiple-frequency incident waves. Finally, we apply the method to a deterministic large-scale optimal cloaking problem with complex geometry, to demonstrate that the approximate Newton method’s Hessian computation is viable for large, complex problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Raman Spectroscopy Based On-Line, Real-Time Monitoring to Reduce Composition Uncertainties: Enhanced sensitivity through optimization of Raman Parameters

Optical spectroscopy-based on-line monitoring of Hanford processing streams can enable real-time characterization of chemical composition of process streams and batches, ultimately enabling and enhancing process control. It can provide immediate feedback on process conditions and has the potential to reduce the needed number of grab sample collections, thereby reducing times and costs associated with laboratory processing. Here we discuss the utilization of Raman spectroscopy to quantify multiple target analytes that are common within Hanford tanks and waste processing streams. Analytes include: nitrate, nitrite, carbonate, chromate, sulfate, phosphate, hydroxide, oxalate, ammonia, and aluminate. Most notably in this work, Raman applications to low-concentration streams are explored and optimized. Raman instrument specifications are compared; specifically, the impact of utilizing three different Raman excitation wavelengths, 405, 532, and 671 nm, is discussed. Also, Raman data collection parameters such as collection time and spectral averaging are measured and discussed. Finally, optical libraries of chemical targets were collected using optimized collection parameters and chemometric models were built to automate quantification of chemical targets. These models were validated through application to simulants and real Hanford process samples. Chemometric models performed well on both training and validation sets, suggesting these approaches can be successfully applied to on-line and real-time monitoring of low concentration Hanford processing streams. The use of the combine Raman wave lengths with the enhanced chemometric models for the low concentration streams significantly improved the chemical detection levels and significantly reduced uncertainties of those measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

A multistage distributionally robust optimization approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty

This paper investigates a Multistage Distributionally Robust Optimization (MDRO) approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty. The MDRO is formed by creating sets of conditional distributions (called conditional ambiguity sets) on a finite scenario tree. The distributions in the conditional ambiguity sets remain close to a nominal conditional distribution according a ø-divergence (e.g., Kullback-Leibler divergence, Hellinger distance, Burg entropy, etc.). Here, the paper discusses a decomposition algorithm to solve the resulting MDRO with ø-divergences, which uses the dual formulation and solves only linear subproblems instead of convex ones. Some properties of the algorithm such as generating feasible policies and valid upper/lower bounds are established. The paper then applies the modeling and solution techniques to allocate water in a rapidly-developing area of Tucson, Arizona. Tucson, like many arid and semi-arid regions around the world, faces considerable uncertainty in its ability to provide water for its citizens in the future. The primary sources of uncertainty in the Tucson region include (1) unpredictable population growth, (2) the availability of water from the Colorado River, and (3) the effects of climate variability on water consumption. This paper integrates forecasts for all these sources of uncertainty into a single optimization model for robust and sustainable water allocation. Then, it uses this model to analyze the value of constructing additional treatment facilities to reduce future water shortages. The results indicate that the MDRO approach can be very valuable for water managers by providing insights to minimize their risks and help them plan for the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Simulation Based Approach to Optimize Berth Throughput Under Uncertainty at Marine Container Terminals

Berth scheduling is a critical function at marine container terminals and determining the best berth schedule depends on several factors including the type and function of the port, size of the port, location, nearby competition, and type of contractual agreement between the terminal and the carriers. In this paper we formulate the berth scheduling problem as a bi-objective mixed-integer problem with the objective to maximize customer satisfaction and reliability of the berth schedule under the assumption that vessel handling times are stochastic parameters following a discrete and known probability distribution. A combination of an exact algorithm, a Genetic Algorithms based heuristic and a simulation post-Pareto analysis is proposed as the solution approach to the resulting problem. Based on a number of experiments it is concluded that the proposed berth scheduling policy outperforms the berth scheduling policy where reliability is not considered.

Golias, Mihalis M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis for constrained optimization of nuclear waste vitrification

Abstract The vitrification of high‐level waste (HLW) by heating a mixture of glass‐forming chemicals (GFCs) with the waste can be improved using a constrained optimization problem. This study explores how different uncertainty propagation (UP) methods implemented with the optimization process can affect the glass formulation of nuclear waste glasses. UP is the effort of propagating uncertain inputs through a system to understand and quantify output distributions. Uncertainty intervals are crafted from output distributions to inform the optimization algorithm. UP is often implemented with Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for large nonlinear systems, which can be difficult to implement within a constrained optimization algorithm that requires derivative information. Other UP methods often used for optimization under uncertainty (OUU) can be designed to work within an established constrained optimization framework. Methods of UP are evaluated in this study including iterative sampling approaches, first‐order approximations, and surrogate modeling with machine learning (ML). A method of dimensional reduction based on global sensitivity analysis is introduced to support the UP methods for the large dimensionality of the problem. Analytical UP methods able to achieve similar optimums 10 times faster than the baseline MC approach, and produce 93.9% similar output distributions are reported.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Finite elements for Matérn-type random fields: Uncertainty in computational mechanics and design optimization

This work highlights an approach for incorporating realistic uncertainties into scientific computing workflows based on finite elements, focusing on prevalent applications in computational mechanics and design optimization. We leverage Matérn-type Gaussian random fields (GRFs) generated using the SPDE method to model aleatoric uncertainties, including environmental influences, variating material properties, and geometric ambiguities. Our focus lies on delivering practical GRF realizations that accurately capture imperfections and variations and understanding how they impact the predictions of computational models as well as the shape and topology of optimized designs. Here we describe a numerical algorithm based on solving a generalized SPDE to sample GRFs on arbitrary meshed domains. The algorithm leverages established techniques and integrates seamlessly with the open-source finite element library MFEM and associated scientific computing workflows, like those found in industrial and national laboratory settings. Our solver scales efficiently for large-scale problems and supports various domain types, including surfaces and embedded manifolds. We showcase its versatility through biomechanics and topology optimization applications, emphasizing the potential to influence these domains. The flexibility and efficiency of SPDE-based GRF generation empowers us to run large-scale optimization problems on 2D and 3D domains, including finding optimized designs on embedded surfaces, and to generate design features and topologies beyond the reach of conventional techniques. Moreover, these capabilities allow us to model and quantify geometric uncertainties on reconstructed submanifolds, such as the interpolated surfaces of cerebral aneurysms provided by postprocessing CT scans. In addition to offering benefits in these specific domains, the proposed techniques transcend specific applications and generalize to arbitrary forward and backward problems in uncertainty quantification involving finite elements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning of a crystal plasticity flow rule from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations

Continuum-scale material deformation models, such as crystal plasticity (CP), can significantly enhance their predictive accuracy by incorporating input from lower-scale (i.e. mesoscale) models. The procedure to generate and extract the relevant information is however typically complex and ad hoc, involving decision and intervention by domain experts, leading to long development times. In this study, we develop a principled approach for calibration of continuum-scale models using lower scale information by representing a CP flow rule as a Gaussian process model. This representation allows for efficient parameter space exploration, guided by the uncertainty embedded in the model through a process known as Bayesian optimization (BO). We demonstrate a semi-autonomous BO loop which instantiates discrete dislocation dynamics simulations whose initial conditions are automatically chosen to optimize the uncertainty of a model CP flow rule. Our self-guided computational pipeline efficiently generated a dataset and corresponding model whose error, uncertainty, and physical feature sensitivities were validated with comparison to an independent dataset four times larger, demonstrating a valuable and efficient active learning implementation readily transferable to similar material systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗