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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1994

Galactic dual population models of gamma-ray bursts

We investigate in more detail the properties of two-population models for gamma-ray bursts in the galactic disk and halo. We calculate the gamma-ray burst statistical properties, mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), as functions of the detection flux threshold for bursts coming from both Galactic disk and massive halo populations. We consider halo models inferred from the observational constraints on the large-scale Galactic structure and we compare the expected values of mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), with those measured by Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and other detectors. We find that the measured values are consistent with solely Galactic populations having a range of halo distributions, mixed with local disk distributions, which can account for as much as approximately 25% of the observed BATSE bursts. M31 does not contribute to these modeled bursts. We also demonstrate, contrary to recent arguments, that the size-frequency distributions of dual population models are quite consistent with the BATSE observations.

Higdon, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The derived population of luminous supersoft X-ray sources

The existence of a new class of astrophysical object, luminous supersoft X-ray sources, has been established through ROSAT satellite observations and analysis during the past approximately 3 yr. Because most of the radiation emitted by supersoft sources spans a range of wavelengths readily absorbed by interstellar gas, a substantial fraction of these sources may not be detectable with present satellite instrumentation. It is therefore important to derive a reliable estimate of the underlying population, based on the approximately 30 sources that have been observed to date. The work reported here combines the observational results with a theoretical analysis, to obtain an estimate of the total number of sources likely to be present in M31, the Magellanic Clouds, and in our own Galaxy. We find that in M31, where approximately 15 supersoft sources have been identified and roughly an equal number of sources are being investigated as supersoft candidates, there are likely to be approximately 2500 active supersoft sources at the present time. In our own Galaxy, where about four supersoft sources have been detected in the Galactic plane, there are likely to be approximately 1000 active sources. Similarly, with about six and about four (nonforeground) sources observed in the Large (LMC) and Small Magellanic Clouds (SMC), respectively, there should be approximately 30 supersoft sources in the LMC, and approximately 20 in the SMC. The likely uncertainties in the numbers quoted above, and the properties of observable sources relative to those of the total underlying population, are also derived in detail. These results can be scaled to estimate the numbers of supersoft sources likely to be present in other galaxies. The results reported here on the underlying population of supersoft X-ray sources are in good agreement with the results of a prior population synthesis study of the white dwarf accretor model for luminous supersoft X-ray sources. It should be emphasized, however, that the questions asked in these two investigations are distinct, that the approaches taken to answer these questions are largely independent and that the findings of these two studies could in principle have been quite different.

Di Stefano, R.STEFANO↗
NASA NTRS1995

Implications of a high population 2 B/Be ratio

The observed boron/beryllium ratio in extreme Population II stars has been interpreted as evidence of Be and B synthesis by early Galactic cosmic rays. However, a recent reanalysis of the boron abundance in the Population II halo star HD 140823 suggests that B/H may be larger than previously reported, by as much as a factor of 4. This would yield a B/Be ratio lying in the range 14 less than or approximately equal to B/Be less than or approximately equal to 50. The possibilty of a high Population II B/Be ratio stresses the importance of the upper limit to the B/Be ratio arising from cosmic-ray production. It is found that the limit to cosmic-ray-produced B/Be depends upon the assumed cosmic-ray spectrum. For any Population II cosmic-ray spectrum that is a single power law in either total energy per nucleon or in momentum, the B/Be ratio constrained to lie in the range 7.6 less than or approximately equal to B/Be less than or approximately equal to 14. Thus, if the new B/Be ratio is correct, it requires either a bimodal cosmic-ray flux with a large low-energy component, or, for another B source, possibly the proposed nu-process in supernovae, either of which may be helpful in explaining the observed B-11/B-10 ratio. Finally, it is noted that the boron reanalysis highlights the uncertainty in our knowledge of the B/Be ratio, and the need for additional data on Be and B abundances.

Fields, Brian D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Ultraviolet radiation from evolved stellar populations. 2: The ultraviolet upturn phenomenon in elliptical galaxies

We discuss the far-ultraviolet upturn phenomenon (UVX) observed in elliptical galaxies and spiral galaxy bulges. Our premise is the UV radiation from these systems emanates primarily from extreme horizontal branch (EHB) stars and their progeny. We derive the broad-band UV colors 1500-V and 2500-V for globular clusters and elliptical galaxies from the available satellite data and investigate color-color and color-line strength correlation. Clusters can be bluer than any galaxy in 15-V and 25-V, implying larger hot star populations, but galaxies are significantly bluer than clusters in 15-25 at a given 15-V. We attribute this primarily to the effect of metal abundance on the mid-UV (2500 A) light. These redder colors of the galaxies also imply that the UVX in galaxies is not produced by metal-poor subpopulations similar to the clusters. We devlop a simple spectral synthesis formulation for all phases of single star evolution from the zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) to the white dwarf cooling track that requires only one or two parameters for each choice of age and abundance. We provide the ingredients necessary for constructing models with arbitrary horizontal branch (HB) morphologies in the age range 2 less than t less than 20 Gyr and for six metallicities in the range -2.26 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.58; we also consider the efect of enhanced Y in metal-rich models. The maximum lifetime UV output is produced by EHB stars with (M(sub env))(sup 0) approximately 0.02 solar mass and can be up to 30 times higher than for post-asymptotic giant branch (P-AGB) stars. The ultraviolet output of old populations is governed primarily by the distribution of (M(sub env))(sup 0)P(M(sub env))(sup 0), on the ZAHB. The UV output is not very sensitive to (Fe/H) or to Y, but it can change very rapidly with (M(sub env))(sup 0). Thus it is extremely sensitive to the precise nature of giant-branch mass loss. Our models use simple descriptions of P(M(sub env))(sup 0) to bracket the colors produced from any real distribution of stars. Our models accurately predict the range of UV colors observed for the globular clusters, given known constraints on their age, abundances, and HB morphologies. We find that models with (Fe/H) greater than or = 0 that do not contain EHB stars cannot reproduce the colors of most of the galaxies. The models also predict that the fraction of the far-UV light from P-AGB stars, which are spatially resolvable in nearby galaxies, is approximately 70% and approximately 20% for moderate UVX and strong UVX systems, respectively. We find that 25-V, but not 15-V, is sensitive to the age and abundance, though these cannot always be cleanly distinguished. The galaxy colors place limits of (Fe/H) greater than -0.5 and less than 15% on the contribution of globular cluster-type populations to the V light. Galaxy colors are consistent with solar-abundance models with ages in the range 6-14 Gyr. We discuss several implications of the observations and the models, including the question of light metal versus iron peak enhancements in galaxies, whether the UV color-Mg(sub 2) correlation is continuous or discrete, effects of helium abundnace on the UVX, and the key question of whether red giant branch mass loss can be large enough to produce the necessary EHB population in the strong UVX galaxies.

Dorman, Ben↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Study of the Stellar Population in Selected SO Galaxies

The goal of this program was to observe at least two SO galaxies with abnormal colors in the blue and clear optical signatures of dust and gas. The galaxies NGC 2217 and NGC 1808 were observed at least in one of the IUE cameras (1200-200 and 2000-3200 A) during the 13th episode, using the 4 US1 shifts assigned to this program. The galaxy NGC 2217 had been found to be part of a subgroup of SO galaxies with external gas rotating in retrograde motion with respect to the stars. This galaxy is a face-on object with indications of large amount of gas, quite rare for a SO galaxy. We observed this object on three different occasions with IUE at different positions of the large aperture (spacecraft roll angle) with respect to the nuclear region. These exposures allowed us to take full advantage of the spatial resolution of IUE by mapping nuclear and bulge region of this galaxy. We found that the data point to a marginally earlier stellar population toward the central region. The UV light as a whole is dominated by a late-type stellar population of principally G and K stars. The almost face-on view of this galaxy appears optically thick to UV light. It is conceivable that in analogy to out own Galaxy, the stellar populations weakly detected in NGC 2217, are mostly halo and late-type stars in the center with an increasing contribution of dust and early stellar populations (so far undetected) as we move outward along the faint spiral arms. This result is contrary to our initial expectation, since the counterrotating gas does not appear to be enhancing star formation in this galaxy. Even more interesting were the observations of NGC 1808; galaxy which has been classified, with a handful of other objects, both as a starburst and Seyfert galaxy. Attachment: 'The White-Dwarf Companions of 56 Persei and HR 3643.'

Perez, M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Beta-Adrenergic Receptor Population is Up-Regulated by Increased Cyclic Amp Concentration in Chicken Skeletal Muscle Cells in Culture

Skeletal muscle hypertrophy is promoted in vivo by administration of beta-drenergic receptor (bAR) agonists. Chicken skeletal muscle cells were treated with 1 (mu)M isoproterenol, a strong bAR agonist, between days 7 and 10 in culture. bAR population increased by approximately 40% during this treatment; however, the ability of the cells to synthesize cyclic AMP (cAMP) was diminished by two-fold. The quantity of myosin heavy chain (MHC) was not affected. To understand further the relationship between intracellular cAMP levels, bAR population, and muscle protein accumulation, intracellular cAMP levels were artificially elevated by treatment with 0-10 uM forskolin for up to three days. The basal concentration of CAMP in forskolin-treated cells increased up to 7-fold in a dose dependent manner. Increasing concentrations of forskolin also led to an increase in bAR population, with a maximum increase of approximately 40-60% at 10 uM forskolin. A maximum increase of 40-50% in the quantity of MHC was observed at 0.2 uM forskolin, but higher concentrations of forskolin reduced the quantity of MHC back to control levels. At 0.2 uM forskolin, intracellular levels of cAMP were higher by approximately 35%, and the (beta)AR population was higher by approximately 30%. Neither the number of muscle nuclei fused into myotubes nor the percentage of nuclei in myotubes were affected by forskolin at any of the concentrations studied.

Young, Ronald B.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Thermal Inertia of Rocks and Rock Populations and Implications for Landing Hazards on Mars

Rocks represent an obvious potential hazard to a landing spacecraft. They also represent an impediment to rover travel and objects of prime scientific interest. Although Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) images are of high enough resolution to distinguish the largest rocks (an extremely small population several meters diameter or larger), traditionally the abundance and distribution of rocks on Mars have been inferred from thermal inertia and radar measurements, our meager ground truth sampling of landing sites, and terrestrial rock populations. In this abstract, we explore the effective thermal inertia of rocks and rock populations, interpret the results in terms of abundances and populations of potentially hazardous rocks, and conclude with interpretations of rock hazards on the Martian surface and in extremely high thermal inertia areas.

Golombek, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Effect of Serum from Chickens Treated with Clenbuterol on Myosin Accumulation, Beta-Adrenergic Receptor Population, and Cyclic AM Synthesis in Embryonic Chicken Skeletal Muscle Cell Cultures

Broiler chickens at 35 days of age were fed 1 ppm clenbuterol for 14 days. This level of dietary clenbuterol led to 5-7% increases in weights of leg and breast muscle tissue. At the end of the 14-day period, serum was prepared from both control and clenbuterol-treated chickens and was then employed as a component of cell culture media at a final concentration of 20% (v/v). Muscle cell cultures were prepared from both the leg and breast muscle groups of twelve-day chick embryos. Treatment groups included control chicken serum to which 10 nM, 50 nM, and 1 micron clenbuterol had been added, as well as cells grown in media containing 10% horse serum. Cultures were subjected to each treatment for 3 days beginning on the seventh day in culture. Neither the percent fusion nor the number of nuclei in myotubes were significantly affected by any of the treatments. The quantity of MHC was not increased by serum from clenbuterol-treated chickens in either breast and leg muscle cultures; however, MHC quantity was 50- 100% higher in cultures grown in control chicken serum to which 10 nM and 50 nM clenbuterol had also been added. The Beta-AR population was 4,000-7,000 Beta-AR per cell in cultures grown in chicken serum, with leg muscle cultures having approximately 25-30% more receptors than breast muscle cultures. Receptor population was not significantly affected by the presence of clenbuterol or by the presence of serum from clenbuterol-treated chickens. In contrast, the Beta-AR population in leg and breast muscle cultures grown in the presence of 10% horse serum was 18,000-20,000 Beta-AR per cell. Basal concentration of cAMP was not significantly affected by any of the treatments. When cultures grown in chicken serum were stimulated for 10 min with 1 micron isoproterenol, limited increases of 12-20% in cAMP concentration above basal levels were observed. However, when cultures grown in the presence of horse serum were stimulated with 1 micron isoproterenol, increases of 600-800 % in cAMP concentration above basal levels were observed. Thus, not only did cells grown in horse serum have a higher Beta-AR population, each receptor had a higher capacity for cAMP synthesis following isoproterenol stimulation. Finally, the hypothesis was tested that clenbuterol exerts its action on muscle protein content by changes in cAMP concentration. No correlation was apparent between basal cAMP concentration and MHC content.

Young, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Effect of Serum from Chickens Treated with Clenbuterol on Myosin Accumulation, Beta-Adrenergic Receptor Population, and Cyclic AMP Synthesis in Embryonic Chicken Skeletal Muscle Cell Cultures

Broiler chickens at 35 d of age were fed 1 ppm clenbuterol for 14 d. This level of dietary clenbuterol led to 5-7% increases in the weights of leg and breast muscle tissue. At the end of the 14-d period, serum was prepared from both control and clenbuterol-treated chickens, and was then employed as a component of cell culture media at a final concentration of 20% (v/v). Muscle cell cultures were prepared from both the leg and the breast muscle groups of 12-d chick embryos. Treatment groups included control chicken serum to which 10 nM, 50 nM, and 1 uM clenbuterol had been added, as well as cells grown in media containing 10% horse serum. Cultures were subjected to each treatment for 3 d, beginning on the seventh d in culture. Neither the percent fusion nor the number of nuclei in myotubes was significantly affected by any of the treatments. The quantity of myosin heavy chains (MHCs) was not increased by serum from clenbuterol-treated chickens in either breast or leg muscle cultures; however, the MHC quantity was 50-150% higher in cultures grown in control chicken serum to which 10 and 50 nM clenbuterol had also been added. The B-adrenergic receptor (betaAR) population was 4000-7000 betaARs per cell in cultures grown in chicken serum with leg muscle cultures having approximately 25-30% more receptors than breast muscle Culture. Receptor population was not significantly affected by the presence of clenbuterol or by the presence of serum from clenbuterol-treated chickens. In contrast, the betaAR Population in leg and breast muscle cultures grown in the presence of 10% horse serum was 16,000-18,000 betaARs per cell. Basal concentration of cyclic adenosine 3':5'monophosphate (cAMP) was not significantly affected by the treatments. When cultures grown in chicken serum were stimulated for 10 min with 1 uM isoproterenol, limited increases of 12-20% in cAMP Concentration above the. basal levels were observed. However, when cultures grown in the presence of horse serum were stimulated with 1 uM isoproterenol, cAMP concentration was stimulated 5- to 9-fold above the basal levels. Thus, not only did cells, grown in horse serum have a higher PAR population, but also each receptor had a higher capacity for cAMP synthesis following isoproterenol stimulation. Finally, the hypothesis that clenbuterol exerts its action on muscle protein content by changes in cAMP concentration was tested. No correlation was apparent between basal cAMP concentration and MHC content.

Young, Ronald B.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Quantification of rat retinal growth and vascular population changes after single and split doses of proton irradiation: translational study using stereology methods

This study quantified architectural and population changes in the rat retinal vasculature after proton irradiation using stereology. A 100 MeV conformal proton beam delivered 8, 14, 20 and 28 Gy as single and split doses to the whole eye. The vascular networks were prepared from retinal digests. Stereological methods were used to obtain the area of the retina and unbiased estimates of microvessel/artery/vein endothelial, pericyte and smooth muscle population, and vessel length. The retinal area increased progressively in the unirradiated, age-matched controls and in the retinas irradiated with 8 and 14 Gy, indicating uniform progressive retinal growth. No growth occurred after 20 and 28 Gy. Regression analysis of total endothelial cell number in all vessels (arteries, veins and capillaries) after irradiation documented a progressive time- and dose-dependent cell loss occurring over 15 to 24 months. The difference from controls was significant (P<0.01) after 28 Gy given in single and split doses and after 20 Gy given as a split dose (P<0.05). Total vessel length in microvessel was significantly shortened at 20 and 28 Gy compared to that of controls (P<0.05). No evident dose recovery was observed in the endothelial populations after split doses. At 10 Gy, the rate of endothelial cell loss, a dose parameter used to characterize the time- and dose-dependent loss of the endothelial population, was doubled.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2006

Current Characteristics and Trends of the Tracked Satellite Population in the Human Space Flight Regime

Since the end of the Apollo program in 1972, human space flight has been restricted to altitudes below 600 km above the Earth s surface with most missions restricted to a ceiling below 400 km. An investigation of the tracked satellite population transiting and influencing the human space flight regime during the past 11 years (equivalent to a full solar cycle) has recently been completed. The overall effects of satellite breakups and solar activity are typically less pronounced in the human space flight regime than other regions of low Earth orbit. As of January 2006 nearly 1500 tracked objects resided in or traversed the human space flight regime, although two-thirds of these objects were in orbits of moderate to high eccentricity, significantly reducing their effect on human space flight safety. During the period investigated, the spatial density of tracked objects in the 350-400 km altitude regime of the International Space Station demonstrated a steady decline, actually decreasing by 50% by the end of the period. On the other hand, the region immediately above 600 km experienced a significant increase in its population density. This regime is important for future risk assessments, since this region represents the reservoir of debris which will influence human space flight safety in the future. The paper seeks to put into sharper perspective the risks posed to human space flight by the tracked satellite population, as well as the influences of solar activity and the effects of compliance with orbital debris mitigation guidelines on human space flight missions. Finally, the methods and successes of characterizing the population of smaller debris at human space flight regimes are addressed.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

ALPS: The Age-Layered Population Structure for Reducing the Problem of Premature Convergence

To reduce the problem of premature convergence we define a new attribute of an individual, its age, and propose the Age-Layered Population Structure (ALPS), in which age is used to restrict competition and breeding between members of the population. ALPS differs from a typical EA by segregating individuals into different age-layers by their age - a measure of how long the genetic material has been in the population - and by regularly replacing all individuals in the bottom layer with randomly generated ones. The introduction of new, randomly generated individuals at regular intervals results in an EA that is never completely converged and is always looking at new parts of the fitness landscape. By using age to restrict competition and breeding search is able to develop promising young individuals without them being dominated by older ones. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the ALPS algorithm on an antenna design problem in which evolution with ALPS produces antennas more than twice as good as does evolution with two other types of EAs. Further analysis shows that the ALPS model does allow the offspring of newly generated individuals to move the population out of mediocre local-optima to better parts of the fitness landscape.

Hornby, Gregory S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Cosmic Infrared Background From Population III Stars and Its Effect on Spectra of High-z Gamma-Ray Bursts

We discuss the contribution of Population III stars to the near-IR (NIR) cosmic infrared background (CIB) and its effect on spectra of high-z, high-energy gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and other sources. It is shown that if Population III is composed of massive stars, the claimed NIR CIB excess will be reproduced if only approx. 4% plus or minus 2% of all baryons went through these stars. Regardless of the precise amount of the NIR CIB due to them, they likely left enough photons to provide a large optical depth for high-energy photons from distant GRBs. Observations of such GRBs are expected following the planned launch of NASA's GLAST mission. Detecting such damping in the spectra of high-z GRBs will then provide important information on the emissions from the Population III epoch, and the location of this cutoff may serve as an indicator of the GRBs' redshifts. We also point out the difficulty of unambiguously detecting the CIB part originating from Population III in spectra of low-z blazars.

Kashlinsky, A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth's carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

An High Resolution Near-Earth Objects Population Enabling Next-Generation Search Strategies

Over the past decade, the dedicated search for kilometer-size near-Earth objects (NEOs), potentially hazardous objects (PHOs), and potential Earth impactors has led to a boost in the rate of discoveries of these objects. The catalog of known NEOs is the fundamental ingredient used to develop a model for the NEOs population, either by assessing and correcting for the observational bias (Jedicke et al., 2002), or by evaluating the migration rates from the NEOs source regions (Bottke et al., 2002). The modeled NEOs population is a necessary tool used to track the progress in the search of large NEOs (Jedicke et al., 2003) and to try to predict the distribution of the ones still undiscovered, as well as to study the sky distribution of potential Earth impactors (Chesley & Spahr, 2004). We present a method to model the NEOs population in all six orbital elements, on a finely grained grid, allowing us the design and test of targeted and optimized search strategies. This method relies on the observational data routinely reported to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) and by other active NEO surveys over the past decade, to determine on a nightly basis the efficiency in detecting moving objects as a function of observable quantities including apparent magnitude, rate of motion, airmass, and galactic latitude. The cumulative detection probability is then be computed for objects within a small range in orbital elements and absolute magnitude, and the comparison with the number of know NEOs within the same range allows us to model the population. When propagated to the present epoch and projected on the sky plane, this provides the distribution of the missing large NEOs, PHOs, and potential impactors.

Tricaico, Pasquale↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O'Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

From Parasite Encounter to Infection: Multiple-Scale Drivers of Parasite Richness in a Wild Social Primate Population

Host parasite diversity plays a fundamental role in ecological and evolutionary processes, yet the factors that drive it are still poorly understood. A variety of processes, operating across a range of spatial scales, are likely to influence both the probability of parasite encounter and subsequent infection. Here, we explored eight possible determinants of parasite richness, comprising rainfall and temperature at the population level, ranging behavior and home range productivity at the group level, and age, sex, body condition, and social rank at the individual level. We used a unique dataset describing gastrointestinal parasites in a terrestrial subtropical vertebrate (chacma baboons, Papio ursinus), comprising 662 faecal samples from 86 individuals representing all age-sex classes across two groups over two dry seasons in a desert population. Three mixed models were used to identify the most important factor at each of the three spatial scales (population, group, individual); these were then standardised and combined in a single, global, mixed model. Individual age had the strongest influence on parasite richness, in a convex relationship. Parasite richness was also higher in females and animals in poor condition, albeit at a lower order of magnitude than age. Finally, with a further halving of effect size, parasite richness was positively correlated to day range and temperature. These findings indicate that a range of factors influence host parasite richness through both encounter and infection probabilities, but that individual-level processes may be more important than those at the group or population level.

Benavides J. A.↗