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Movement through Dams Facilitates Population Connectivity in a Large River

Even in heavily impounded river ecosystems, aquatic populations and communities retain limited connectivity via movement through dams. This connectivity has the potential to influence population dynamics but has been infrequently characterized. We used 1995–2008 paddlefish mark–recapture data to perform the following: (i) quantify rates of movement through dams and (ii) examine the influence of dam discharge on fish passing dams. We found that there are substantial one-way (upstream to downstream) population connections maintained via fish passing dams and that dam discharge is a key driver of downstream fish movement. Results of our study suggest that population connections maintained by fish passing dams can play an important role in population dynamics depleting upstream populations and subsidizing downstream populations, particularly in years with high flow events. We suggest that the influence of hydrology on maintaining populations in fragmented ecosystems is an increasingly important consideration for conservation and management of aquatic ecosystems in the face of predicted hydrological changes from climate change.

Pracheil, Brenda↗

Accumulation of Large Ion Populations with High Ion Densities and Effects Due to Space Charge in Traveling Wave-Based Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations (SLIM) IMS-MS

The accumulation of very large ion populations in traveling wave (TW)-based Structures for Lossless ion Manipulations (SLIM) has been studied to better understand aspects of ‘in-SLIM’ ion accumulation, and particularly its use in conjunction with ion mobility spectrometry (IMS). A linear SLIM ion path was implemented that had a ‘gate’ for blocking and accumulating ions for arbitrary time periods. Removing the gate potential caused ions to exit and the spatial distributions of accumulated ions were examined. The ion populations for a set of peptides were observed to increase with increased accumulation times until space change effects became significant, after which the peptide precursor ion populations decreased due to growing space charge-related ion activation, reactions, and losses. Ions closest to the gate were preferentially activated, and increasingly so with added storage times, TW amplitude, and the size of the total ion population. For analytical applications, we found that relatively weak TWs in the accumulation/storage region should be utilized to prevent or minimize ion losses and/or ion heating effects that can also lead to fragmentation. Our results further indicate that an accumulation region close to the SLIM entrance is advantageous for both speeding accumulation, minimizing ion heating, and avoiding ion population profiles that result in IMS peak tailing. Importantly, space charge-driven separations were observed for large populations of accumulated species and attributed to the opposing effects of space charge and the TW. In these separations, ion species form distributions or peaks, sometimes moving against the TW, and ordered in the SLIM based on their mobilities. Such separations may offer utility for ion pre-fractionation of ions and increasing the dynamic range measurements, increasing the resolving power of IMS separations by decreasing peak widths for accumulated ion populations, and other purposes benefitting from separations of extremely large ion populations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Evaluating the Accuracy and Precision of Multiple Abundance Estimators Using State-Space Models: A Case Study for a Threatened Population of Chinook Salmon in Johnson Creek, Idaho

Abstract Over the last century, Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha populations in the Pacific Northwest have experienced dramatic declines, leading to many of them being listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. The abundance of these threatened populations relative to the thresholds for delisting remains the primary metric for assessing recovery, yet determining the true population abundances from multiple survey types with unknown levels of accuracy and precision remains difficult. The abundance of the spring–summer Chinook Salmon population in Johnson Creek, Idaho, has been measured using a mark–recapture survey and three different redd count surveys (RCSs) that vary temporally and spatially. Using a state-space model, we determined the accuracy and precision of each survey type by decoupling the observation error of the survey from the process error describing the annual variability in the true population abundance. We then extended the results of the model to determine the risk of managers’ incorrectly delisting the population (a type I error) or incorrectly keeping it listed (a type II error). Finally, we show that salmon managers with data-limited populations (primarily those with only single-pass index RCSs) might use the results of our risk analysis to determine whether expanding survey efforts to minimize management risks is appropriate when they are confronted with dwindling financial resources. For example, we determined that although both the multiple-pass extended RCS (CV = 0.06) and mark–recapture surveys (CV = 0.14) provide unbiased estimates of salmon abundance in Johnson Creek, the mark–recapture study can have annual costs that are 30–100 times greater. Managers may determine that directing research funds toward acquiring information unique to weir-based mark–recapture surveys (i.e., migration timing, good genetics samples, etc.) may not be justified for all populations. Received October 7, 2013; accepted March 5, 2014

Chasco, Brandon E.↗

OGLE-ing the Magellanic system: stellar populations in the Magellanic Bridge

We report the discovery of a young stellar bridge that forms a continuous connection between the Magellanic Clouds. This finding is based on number density maps for stellar populations found in data gathered by OGLE-IV that fully cover over 270 deg{sup 2} of the sky in the Magellanic Bridge area. This is the most extensive optical survey of this region to date. We find that the young population is present mainly in the western half of the MBR, which, together with the newly discovered young population in the eastern Bridge, form a continuous stream of stars connecting both galaxies along δ ∼ –73.5 deg. The young population distribution is clumped, with one of the major densities close to the SMC and the other fairly isolated and located approximately mid-way between the Clouds, which we call the OGLE island. These overdensities are well matched by H I surface density contours, although the newly found young population in the eastern Bridge is offset by ∼2 deg north from the highest H I density contour. We observe a continuity of red clump stars between the Magellanic Clouds which represent an intermediate-age population. Red clump stars are present mainly in the southern and central parts of the Magellanic Bridge, below its gaseous part, and their presence is reflected by a strong deviation from the radial density profiles of the two galaxies. This may indicate either a tidal stream of stars, or that the stellar halos of the two galaxies overlap. On the other hand, we do not observe such an overlap within an intermediate-age population represented by the top of the red giant branch and the asymptotic giant branch stars. We also see only minor mixing of the old populations of the Clouds in the southern part of the Bridge, represented by the lowest part of the red giant branch.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Describing patterns of familial cancer risk in subfertile men using population pedigree data

STUDY QUESTION Can we simultaneously assess risk for multiple cancers to identify familial multicancer patterns in families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men? SUMMARY ANSWER Here, distinct familial cancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in familial cancer risk by both type of subfertility and within subfertility type. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Subfertile men and their relatives show increased risk for certain cancers including testicular, thyroid, and pediatric. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A retrospective cohort of subfertile men (N = 786) was identified and matched to fertile population controls (N = 5674). Family members out to third-degree relatives were identified for both subfertile men and fertile population controls (N = 337 754). The study period was 1966–2017. Individuals were censored at death or loss to follow-up, loss to follow-up occurred if they left Utah during the study period. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Azoospermic (0 × 10 6 /mL) and severely oligozoospermic (<1.5 × 10 6 /mL) men were identified in the Subfertility Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort (SHARE). Subfertile men were age- and sex-matched 5:1 to fertile population controls and family members out to third-degree relatives were identified using the Utah Population Database (UPDB). Cancer diagnoses were identified through the Utah Cancer Registry. Families containing ≥10 members with ≥1 year of follow-up 1966–2017 were included (azoospermic: N = 426 families, 21 361 individuals; oligozoospermic: N = 360 families, 18 818 individuals). Unsupervised clustering based on standardized incidence ratios for 34 cancer phenotypes in the families was used to identify familial multicancer patterns; azoospermia and severe oligospermia families were assessed separately. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Compared to control families, significant increases in cancer risks were observed in the azoospermia cohort for five cancer types: bone and joint cancers hazard ratio (HR) = 2.56 (95% CI = 1.48–4.42), soft tissue cancers HR = 1.56 (95% CI = 1.01–2.39), uterine cancers HR = 1.27 (95% CI = 1.03–1.56), Hodgkin lymphomas HR = 1.60 (95% CI = 1.07–2.39), and thyroid cancer HR = 1.54 (95% CI = 1.21–1.97). Among severe oligozoospermia families, increased risk was seen for three cancer types: colon cancer HR = 1.16 (95% CI = 1.01–1.32), bone and joint cancers HR = 2.43 (95% CI = 1.30–4.54), and testis cancer HR = 2.34 (95% CI = 1.60–3.42) along with a significant decrease in esophageal cancer risk HR = 0.39 (95% CI = 0.16–0.97). Thirteen clusters of familial multicancer patterns were identified in families of azoospermic men, 66% of families in the azoospermia cohort showed population-level cancer risks, however, the remaining 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 2-7 cancer types. Several of the clusters with elevated cancer risks also showed increased odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages with six clusters showing increased odds of adolescent and young adult (AYA) diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) = 1.96–2.88] and two clusters showing increased odds of pediatric cancer diagnosis (OR = 3.64–12.63). Within the severe oligozoospermia cohort, 12 distinct familial multicancer clusters were identified. All 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 1–3 cancer types. An increase in odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages was also seen in five of the severe oligozoospermia familial multicancer clusters, three clusters showed increased odds of AYA diagnosis (OR = 2.19–2.78) with an additional two clusters showing increased odds of a pediatric diagnosis (OR = 3.84–9.32). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Although this study has many strengths, including population data for family structure, cancer diagnoses and subfertility, there are limitations. First, semen measures are not available for the sample of fertile men. Second, there is no information on medical comorbidities or lifestyle risk factors such as smoking status, BMI, or environmental exposures. Third, all of the subfertile men included in this study were seen at a fertility clinic for evaluation. These men were therefore a subset of the overall population experiencing fertility problems and likely represent those with the socioeconomic means for evaluation by a physician. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This analysis leveraged unique population-level data resources, SHARE and the UPDB, to describe novel multicancer clusters among the families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men. Distinct overall multicancer risk and familial multicancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in cancer risk by type of subfertility and within subfertility type. Describing families with similar cancer risk patterns provides a new avenue to increase homogeneity for focused gene discovery and environmental risk factor studies. Such discoveries will lead to more accurate risk predictions and improved counseling for patients and their families. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was funded by GEMS: Genomic approach to connecting Elevated germline Mutation rates with male infertility and Somatic health (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD): R01 HD106112). The authors have no conflicts of interest relevant to this work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Historical separation and present-day structure of common dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) populations in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea

Abstract The common dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) is an epipelagic, mid-trophic level, highly migratory species distributed throughout the world’s tropical and subtropical oceans in waters greater than 20°C. Life-history variables, migratory behaviour, and genetic markers have been used to define major stocks in the central Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Here, we used the mitochondrial DNA gene NADH subunit 1 (688 bp) to test for differences between population groups. A total of 103 haplotypes were detected among 203 fish. Gene diversities in samples were large and similar among populations (mean h = 0.932; range 0.894–0.987), but nucleotide diversities varied widely among samples (range π = 0.004–0.034) and appear to reflect population histories. Principal component analysis revealed two large populations groups, and the analysis of molecular variation and pairwise values of ΦST resolved population structure within these groups. Populations in the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean showed the largest amounts of divergence from one another (ΦCT = 0.331). Adult movement and biophysical barriers to larval dispersal may explain contemporary differences between stocks, but the divergent populations in the Mediterranean Sea are likely due to isolations by cold temperature barriers during Pleistocene glaciations. The geographically large stock groupings require international cooperation in the harvest management and conservation of local dolphinfish populations.

Maggio, Teresa↗

Unravelling the orbits of cluster galaxy populations according to their dominant gas ionization source

ABSTRACT We investigate the kinematical and dynamical properties of cluster galaxy populations classified according to their dominant source of gas ionization, namely: star-forming (SF) galaxies, optical active galactic nuclei (AGNs), mixed SF plus AGN ionization (transition objects, T), and quiescent (Q) galaxies. We stack 8892 member galaxies from 336 relaxed galaxy clusters to build an ensemble cluster and estimate the observed projected profiles of numerical density and velocity dispersion, $\sigma _P(R)$, of each galaxy population. The MAMPOSSt code and the Jeans equations inversion technique are used to constrain the velocity anisotropy profiles of the galaxy populations in both parametric and non-parametric ways. We find that Q (SF) galaxies display the lowest (highest) typical cluster-centric distances and velocity dispersion values. Transition galaxies are more concentrated and tend to exhibit lower velocity dispersion values than SF galaxies. Galaxies that host an optical AGN are as concentrated as Q galaxies but display velocity dispersion values similar to those of the SF population. MAMPOSSt is able to find equilibrium solutions that successfully recover the observed $\sigma _P(R)$ profile only for the Q, T, and AGN populations. We find that the orbits of all populations are consistent with isotropy in the inner regions, becoming increasingly radial with the distance from the cluster centre. These results suggest that Q galaxies are in equilibrium within their clusters, while SF galaxies have more recently arrived in the cluster environment. Finally, the T and AGN populations appear to be in an intermediate dynamical state between those of the SF and Q populations.

Valk, Greique A. (ORCID:0009000827731299)↗

Population Genomics of Pseudocercospora griseola Reveals New Groups in the Middle American Clade and the Presence of the Endophytic Bacterium Achromobacter xylosoxidans

Angular leaf spot (ALS), caused by Pseudocercospora griseola is an important disease of common beans. P. griseola, is highly variable and has co-evolved with its host. In this study, 48 isolates of P. griseola from Puerto Rico, Guatemala, Honduras and Tanzania were sequenced (3RADseq), resulting in the de novo assembly of 42,214 contigs. Phylogenomic, population genetic structure and principal component analyses using 1,260 SNPs divided these isolates into two populations, Andean and Middle American, while the Middle American population was further divided into three sub-populations. There were moderate to high levels of differentiation between P. griseola populations, with pairwise Fst values ranging from 0.11 to 0.95. The Andean population was composed of isolates from Tanzania, and was separated from the Middle American population (Fst = 0.95). The Middle American population was separated into 3 subpopulations including isolates from: 1. Guatemala and Honduras, 2. Tanzania, and 3. Puerto Rico. Pathogenicity testing of 27 isolates from Puerto Rico, using 12 common bean differential lines, identified ten races, but these races were not associated with SNPs found in virulence genes. DNA of an endophytic bacterium (Achromobacter xylosoxidans) was found in seven mildly virulent isolates suggesting a possible role of the bacterium in the observed virulence patterns. To understand the evolution and diversity of P. griseola, further study of the virulence genes and the interactions among the endophytic bacterium, the fungus, and the host plant is required. Such information is critical to inform breeding strategies for the development of resistant germplasm and cultivars.

Serrato-Diaz, Luz M. [U.S. Department of Agricultu↗

Declining population trends of European mountain birds

Abstract Mountain areas often hold special species communities, and they are high on the list of conservation concern. Global warming and changes in human land use, such as grazing pressure and afforestation, have been suggested to be major threats for biodiversity in the mountain areas, affecting species abundance and causing distribution shifts towards mountaintops. Population shifts towards poles and mountaintops have been documented in several areas, indicating that climate change is one of the key drivers of species’ distribution changes. Despite the high conservation concern, relatively little is known about the population trends of species in mountain areas due to low accessibility and difficult working conditions. Thanks to the recent improvement of bird monitoring schemes around Europe, we can here report a first account of population trends of 44 bird species from four major European mountain regions: Fennoscandia, UK upland, south‐western (Iberia) and south‐central mountains (Alps), covering 12 countries. Overall, the mountain bird species declined significantly (−7%) during 2002–2014, which is similar to the declining rate in common birds in Europe during the same period. Mountain specialists showed a significant −10% decline in population numbers. The slope for mountain generalists was also negative, but not significantly so. The slopes of specialists and generalists did not differ from each other. Fennoscandian and Iberian populations were on average declining, while in United Kingdom and Alps, trends were nonsignificant. Temperature change or migratory behaviour was not significantly associated with regional population trends of species. Alpine habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change, and this is certainly one of the main drivers of mountain bird population trends. However, observed declines can also be partly linked with local land use practices. More efforts should be undertaken to identify the causes of decline and to increase conservation efforts for these populations.

Lehikoinen, Aleksi↗

Impact of the HIV-1 genetic background and HIV-1 population size on the evolution of raltegravir resistance

Background Emergence of resistance against integrase inhibitor raltegravir in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) patients is typically associated with selection of one of three signature mutations: Y143C/R, Q148K/H/R or N155H, representing three distinct resistance pathways. The mechanisms that drive selection of a specific pathway are still poorly understood. We reviewed the effect of the HIV-1 genetic background and population dynamics on the emergence of raltegravir resistance. Using deep sequencing we analyzed the integrase coding sequence (CDS) in longitudinal samples from five patients who initiated raltegravir plus optimized background therapy at viral loads > 5000 copies/ml. To investigate the role of the HIV-1 genetic background we created recombinant viruses containing the viral integrase coding region from pre-raltegravir samples from two patients in whom raltegravir resistance developed through different pathways. The in vitro selections performed with these recombinant viruses were designed to mimic natural population bottlenecks. Results Deep sequencing analysis of the viral integrase CDS revealed that the virological response to raltegravir containing therapy inversely correlated with the relative amount of unique sequence variants that emerged suggesting diversifying selection during drug pressure. In 4/5 patients multiple signature mutations representing different resistance pathways were observed. Interestingly, the resistant population can consist of a single resistant variant that completely dominates the population but also of multiple variants from different resistance pathways that coexist in the viral population. We also found evidence for increased diversification after stronger bottlenecks. In vitro selections with low viral titers, mimicking population bottlenecks, revealed that both recombinant viruses and HXB2 reference virus were able to select mutations from different resistance pathways, although typically only one resistance pathway emerged in each individual culture. Conclusions The generation of a specific raltegravir resistant variant is not predisposed in the genetic background of the viral integrase CDS. Typically, in the early phases of therapy failure the sequence space is explored and multiple resistance pathways emerge and then compete for dominance which frequently results in a switch of the dominant population over time towards the fittest variant or even multiple variants of similar fitness that can coexist in the viral population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Gut microbiota and their putative metabolic functions in fragmented Bengal tiger population of Nepal

Bengal tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) serve a pivotal role as an apex predator in forest ecosystems. To increase our knowledge on factors impacting the viability and health of this endangered species, we studied the gut microbiota in 32 individual Bengal tigers from three geographically separated areas (Chitwan National Park (CNP), Bardia National Park (BNP) and Suklaphanta Wildlife Reserve (SWR)) in Nepal, using noninvasive genetic sampling methods. Gut microbiota influence the immune system, impact various physiological functions, and modulates metabolic reactions, that ultimately impact the host health, behavior and development. Across the tiger populations in Nepal, we found significant differences in the composition of microbial communities based on their geographic locations. Specifically, we detected significant differences between CNP and the other two protected areas (CNP vs BNP: pseudo t = 1.944, P = 0.006; CNP vs SWR: pseudo t = 1.9942, P = 0.0071), but no differences between BNP and SWR. This mirrors what has been found for tiger gene flow in the same populations, suggesting gut microbiota composition and host gene flow may be linked. Furthermore, predictive metagenome functional content analysis (PICRUSt) revealed a higher functional enrichment and diversity for significant gut microbiota in the Chitwan tiger population and the lowest enrichment and diversity in Suklaphanta. The CNP tiger population contained higher proportions of microbiota that are associated with predicted functions relevant for metabolism of amino acid, lipid, xenobiotics biodegradation, terpenoides and polyketides than the SWR population. We conclude the tiger population structure, gut microbiota profile and associated functional metabolic categories are correlated, with geographically most separated CNP and SWR tiger population having the most distinct and different host genotype and microbiota profiles. Our work dramatically expands the understanding of tiger microbiota in wild populations and provides a valuable case study on how to investigate genetic diversity at different hierarchical levels, including hosts as well as their microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite Embedding-Based Population Imputation for Areas with Missing Building Footprint Data: A Computer Vision-Based Approach

High-resolution population modeling is important for supporting effective decision-making across diverse sectors. LandScan Mosaic generates population estimates at the level of individual buildings and aggregates them to 3 arc-second grids, and this approach performs well in regions where building footprint data are comprehensive and reliable. However, large portions of the globe still suffer from incomplete, sparse, or entirely missing building stock datasets, creating a structural limitation for strictly building-based population models. To address this research gap, this study proposes a computer vision-based framework that employs Google Earth Engine satellite embeddings and UNet, which allows us to directly impute grid-level population estimates in building-data-deficient areas. Applied to Taiwan as a case study, the framework achieved strong predictive performance with R$^{2}$ of 0.89, RMSE of 18.70, and MAE of 8.41, outperforming traditional machine learning approaches. Notably, the proposed framework effectively addressed building false-positive errors inherent in Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data, correctly identifying uninhabited areas that were erroneously classified as populated. The framework also offers significant advantages for global population mapping, particularly in terms of scalability and temporal consistency, thereby extending the coverage and accuracy of high-resolution population products in data-scarce regions worldwide. Urban planners, decision makers, and related stakeholders can obtain granular population distributions to support more accurate and targeted infrastructure investment, service delivery, resource allocation, and risk assessment decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

OSSOS. IX. Two Objects in Neptune's 9:1 Resonance—Implications for Resonance Sticking in the Scattering Population

We discuss the detection in the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) of two objects in Neptune’s distant 9:1 mean motion resonance at semimajor axis a ≈ 130 au. Both objects are securely resonant on 10 Myr timescales, with one securely in the 9:1 resonance’s leading asymmetric libration island and the other in either the symmetric or trailing asymmetric island. These objects are the largest semimajor axis objects with secure resonant classifications, and their detection in a carefully characterized survey allows for the first robust resonance population estimate beyond 100 au. The detection of these objects implies a 9:1 resonance population of 1.1 × 10{sup 4} objects with H {sub r} < 8.66 (D ≳ 100 km) on similar orbits (95% confidence range of ∼(0.4–3) × 10{sup 4}). Integrations over 4 Gyr of an ensemble of clones spanning these objects’ orbit-fit uncertainties reveal that they both have median resonance occupation timescales of ∼1 Gyr. These timescales are consistent with the hypothesis that these objects originate in the scattering population but became transiently stuck to Neptune’s 9:1 resonance within the last ∼1 Gyr of solar system evolution. Based on simulations of a model of the current scattering population, we estimate the expected resonance sticking population in the 9:1 resonance to be 1000–4500 objects with H {sub r} < 8.66; this is marginally consistent with the OSSOS 9:1 population estimate. We conclude that resonance sticking is a plausible explanation for the observed 9:1 population, but we also discuss the possibility of a primordial 9:1 population, which would have interesting implications for the Kuiper Belt’s dynamical history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Light Element Abundances and Multiple Populations in M53

We present results from a study of 94 red giant stars in the globular cluster M53. We use low-resolution spectra to measure the strength of CN and CH features at ∼3800 and 4300 Å, respectively. The strengths of these features are used to classify stars into a CN-enhanced and CN-normal population and to measure C and N abundances in all 94 stars. We find the red giant branch stars to be evenly split between the two populations identified, and observe the presence of CN-enhanced stars on the asymptotic giant branch. In addition, we identify five CH star candidates based on the strength of their CN and CH band features, and the presence of a P-branch in their CH band. We compare our identification of multiple populations to those based on the Na–O anticorrelation and pseudo-color indices in Hubble Space Telescope UV photometry, and find general agreement between all three methods. Our large sample size also allows us to study the radial distribution of each population, and we find that the CN-enhanced population is more centrally concentrated. We use our C and N measurements to compare the evolutionary changes in these elements as a function of magnitude between the two populations, and show that both populations experience similar evolutionary changes to the surface abundances of C and N. Finally, we calculate C+N+O abundances for each population and compare them to similar measurements made in M10; we find that in both clusters, CN-enhanced stars have a slightly enhanced C+N+O (Δ(C+N+O) ∼ 0.2 dex).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

Xu, Y.-L.↗

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

Xu, Y.-L.↗

NASA Orbital Debris Baseline Populations

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has created high fidelity populations of the debris environment. The populations include objects of 1 cm and larger in Low Earth Orbit through Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit. They were designed for the purpose of assisting debris researchers and sensor developers in planning and testing. This environment is derived directly from the newest ORDEM model populations which include a background derived from LEGEND, as well as specific events such as the Chinese ASAT test, the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 accidental collision, the RORSAT sodium-potassium droplet releases, and other miscellaneous events. It is the most realistic ODPO debris population to date. In this paper we present the populations in chart form. We describe derivations of the background population and the specific populations added on. We validate our 1 cm and larger Low Earth Orbit population against SSN, Haystack, and HAX radar measurements.

Krisko, Paula H.↗