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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

An evaluation of prognostic factors, oncologic outcomes, and management for primary and recurrent squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva

Objective: To evaluate prognostic factors, outcomes, and management patterns of patients treated for squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva. Methods: One hundred sixty-four women were retrospectively identified with primary squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva treated at our institution between 1/1996–12/2018. Descriptive statistics were performed on patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. The χ 2 tests and t-tests were used to compare categorical variables and continuous variables, respectively. Recurrence free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and disease-specific survival (DSS) were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier estimates, the log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards. Results: Median follow-up was 52.5 months. Five-year RFS was 67.9%, 60.0%, 42.1%, and 20.0% for stage I–IV, respectively. Five-year DSS was 86.2%, 81.6%, 65.0%, and 42.9% for stage I–IV, respectively. On multivariate analysis, positive margins predicted overall RFS (hazard ratio [HR]=3.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.18–10.73; p=0.025), while presence of lichen sclerosus on pathology (HR=2.78; 95% CI=1.30–5.91; p=0.008) predicted local RFS. OS was predicted by nodal involvement (HR=2.51; 95% CI=1.02–6.13; p=0.043) and positive margins (HR=5.19; 95% CI=2.03–13.26; p=0.001). Adjuvant radiotherapy significantly improved RFS (p=0.016) and DSS (p=0.012) in node-positive patients. Median survival after treatment of local, groin, and pelvic/distant recurrence was 52, 8, and 5 months, respectively. Conclusion: For primary treatment, more conservative surgical approaches can be considered with escalation of treatment in patients with concurrent precursor lesions, positive margins, and/or nodal involvement. Further studies are warranted to improve risk stratification in order to optimize treatment paradigms for vulvar cancer patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of land use change and elevated CO 2 on the interannual variations and seasonal cycles of gross primary productivity in China

Climate change, rising CO 2 concentration, and landuse and land cover change (LULCC) are primary driving forces for terrestrialgross primary productivity (GPP), but their impacts on the temporal changesin GPP are uncertain. In this study, the effects of the three main factorson the interannual variation (IAV) and seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of GPPin China were investigated using 12 terrestrial biosphere models from theMulti-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project. Thesimulated ensemble mean value of China's GPP between 1981 and 2010, drivenby common climate forcing, LULCC and CO 2 data, was found to be7.4±1.8 Pg C yr -1 . In general, climate was the dominant controlfactor of the annual trends, IAV and seasonality of China's GPP. Theoverall rising CO2 led to enhanced plant photosynthesis, thusincreasing annual mean and IAV of China's total GPP, especially innortheastern and southern China, where vegetation is dense. LULCC decreasedthe IAV of China's total GPP by ~7%, whereas rising CO 2 induced an increase of 8 %. Compared to climate change andelevated CO 2 , LULCC showed less contributions to GPP's temporalvariation, and its impact acted locally, mainly in southwestern China.Furthermore, this study also examined subregional contributions to thetemporal changes in China's total GPP. Southern and southeastern Chinashowed higher contributions to China's annual GPP, whereas southwestern andcentral parts of China explained larger fractions of the IAV in China's GPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Primary Radiation Damage Formation in Solids

The processes that give rise to changes in the microstructure and the physical and mechanical properties of solid metals and ceramics exposed to energetic particles are initiated by essentially elastic collisions between atoms in what has been called an atomic displacement cascade. These processes are similar in metals and ceramics, with some differences related to the ionic and covalent bonding in ceramics compared to metallic bonding. The formation and evolution of primary radiation damage mechanisms are described to provide an overview of how stable defects are formed by displacement cascades, as well as the nature and morphology of the defects themselves. The impact of the primary variables cascade energy and irradiation temperature are discussed, along with a range of secondary factors that can influence damage formation.

Zarkadoula, Eva↗
DOE OSTI2022

sCO2 Primary Power Large-Scale Pilot Plant FEED Summary

Echogen Power Systems and its project partners the Electric Power Research Institute, CDM Smith, Riley Power Inc. (a Babcock Power Inc. company), and the University of Missouri completed the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) study of a nominal 10 MWe supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) large-scale pilot plant based on Recompression Brayton Cycle (RCBC) architecture. The FEED study was completed under Phase II of the U.S. Department of Energy Fossil Fuel Large-Scale Pilots program. The FEED study scope included the preliminary design of the combustion and environmental control systems, the primary heater, the sCO2 power cycle and its associated turbomachinery, and the balance of plant equipment to determine accurate cost and schedule requirements for fabrication and installation of the system at the University of Missouri’s Combined Cooling, Heat, and Power Plant, located in Columbia, Missouri. The RCBC sCO2 cycle presents superior thermodynamic efficiency compared to steam-Rankine cycles and is adaptable to a broad range of heat sources. The risk aversion of the power generation industry requires a successful large-scale pilot plant demonstration to enable financing and deployment of commercial-scale plants. Therefore, successful construction and demonstration of a 10 MWe RCBC sCO2 power plant would empower a transformational step forward for the efficiency of the next generation of utility power plants. This paper provides details on the primary heater, environmental control systems, and sCO2 power cycle design and performance.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Trade-Off Study Between the Primary and Transient Responses of Grid-Forming Inverters

The control parameters of the grid-forming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBRs) directly impact power system dynamics. The primary control requires the GFM inverter to balance generation and load. It is also preferred that a GFM inverter maintain the terminal frequency after a power system fault. In this paper, we investigate the trade-off between the primary control objective and the transient response. To quantify the transient performance of the GFM inverter, we introduce a new real-time transient stability index (TSI). This index plays a crucial role in our investigation, as it allows us to compare the performance trade-offs of different sets of GFM control parameters.

Lin, Xuheng↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating the State of Charge in Lithium Primary Batteries: Recent Advances and Critical Insights

Lithium primary batteries (LPBs) remain essential in critical applications such as military, aerospace, medical and emergency devices, and portable electronics. Their superior energy density over lithium-ion batteries offers a significant advantage for long-duration use. Therefore, accurate estimation of the state of charge (SoC) is essential for ensuring the reliable and safe operation of these batteries. While extensive research has been conducted on SoC estimation techniques for lithium-ion secondary batteries, LPBs present unique challenges that complicate accurate SoC estimation. Moreover, research on nondestructive testing techniques for SoC estimation in LPBs is significantly lacking. In this review article, it is aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of recent advancements in SoC estimation for LPBs and generates new insights and directions for future research. Herein, existing methods are discussed and their effectiveness and mechanisms are identified, and areas for further optimization are outlined. More theoretical/experimental efforts to advance SoC detection in LPBs is recommended due to challenges identified with existing techniques.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of cellulose reducing ends and primary hydroxyl groups modifications on cellulose-cellulase interactions and cellulose hydrolysis

Cellulose reducing ends are believed to play a vital role in the cellulose recalcitrance to enzymatic conversion. However, their role in insoluble cellulose accessibility and hydrolysis is not clear. Thus, in this study, reducing ends of insoluble cellulose derived from various sources were modified by applying reducing and/or oxidizing agents. Here, the effects of cellulose reducing ends modification on cellulose reducing ends, cellulose structure, and cellulose accessibility to cellulase were evaluated along with the impact on cellulose hydrolysis with complete as well purified cellulase components. Sodium borohydride (NaBH 4 ) reduction and sodium chlorite-acetic acid (SC/AA) oxidation were able to modify more than 90% and 60% of the reducing ends, respectively, while the bicinchoninic acid (BCA) reagent applied for various cycles oxidized cellulose reducing ends to various extents. X-ray diffractograms of the treated solids showed that these treatments did not change the cellulose crystalline structure and the change in crystallinity index was insignificant. Surprisingly, it was found that the cellulose reducing ends modification, either through selective NaBH 4 reduction or BCA oxidation, had a negligible impact on cellulose accessibility as well on cellulose hydrolysis rates or final conversions with complete cellulase at loadings as low as 0.5 mg protein/g cellulose. In fact, in contrast to what is traditionally believed, modifications of cellulose reducing ends by these two methods had no apparent impact on cellulose conversion with purified cellulase components and their synergy. However, SC/AA oxidation resulted in significant drop in cellulose conversion (10%–50%) with complete as well purified cellulase components. Nonetheless, further research revealed that the cause for drop in cellulose conversion for the SC/AA oxidation case was due to primary hydroxyl groups (PHGs) oxidation and not the oxidation of reducing ends. Furthermore, it was found that the PHGs modification affects cellulose accessibility and slows the cellulase uptake as well resulting in significant drop in cellulose conversions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land cover change-induced decline in terrestrial gross primary production over the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2016

As one of the most dynamic aspects of global environmental change, land cover change (LCC) has a profound impact on terrestrial carbon sequestration. However, LCC-induced carbon fluxes are still the most uncertain terms in global and regional carbon budgets. Ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) is the total carbon uptake by vegetation through photosynthesis, serving as a major control on ecosystem function and land carbon balance during and after the modification of the land surface. However, accurately capturing LCC-induced GPP changes requires both high-quality land cover data and controlling for variation driven by other environmental factors such as climate. In this study, we comprehensively examined the effects of LCC on annual GPP trends over the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2016 using the USGS National Land Cover Database, a remote sensing-driven ecosystem model, and the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform. We designed a series of model experiments to identify LCC effects on GPP by controlling climate effects. During the study period, LCC exerted a strong negative effect on total GPP across the CONUS ([-2.2, -1.8] Tg C yr -2 ), while climate had smaller positive effects ([0.17, 0. 92] Tg C yr -2 ). The LCC-induced reduction of GPP was mainly caused by net forest loss ([-1.98, -1.39] Tg C yr -2 ) and urban expansion ([-2.03, -1.92] Tg C yr -2 ), but was partially offset by increases in crop area ([+0.66, +0.79] Tg C yr -2 ). Ensemble simulations from TRENDY did not capture the strong negative LCC influences on GPP, likely due to limitations of the adopted land use/cover data. Overall, our study provides a novel perspective on LCC-induced GPP changes, which could help to improve our understanding of ecosystem function changes and constrain the estimation of land carbon balance in the context of anthropogenic activity and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Attributing differences of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF)-gross primary production (GPP) relationships between two C4 crops: corn and miscanthus

There remains limited information to characterize the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF)-gross primary production (GPP) relationship in C4 cropping systems. The annual C4 crop corn and perennial C4 crop miscanthus differ in phenology, canopy structure and leaf physiology. Investigating the SIF-GPP relationships in these species could deepen our understanding of SIF-GPP relationships within C4 crops. Using in situ canopy SIF and GPP measurements for both species along with leaf-level measurements, we found considerable differences in the SIF-GPP relationships between corn and miscanthus, with a stronger SIF-GPP relationship and higher slope of SIF-GPP observed in corn compared to miscanthus. These differences were mainly caused by leaf physiology. For miscanthus, high non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) under high light, temperature and water vapor deficit (VPD) conditions caused a large decline of fluorescence yield (Φ F ), which further led to a SIF midday depression and weakened the SIF-GPP relationship. The larger slope in corn than miscanthus was mainly due to its higher GPP in mid-summer, largely attributed to the higher leaf photosynthesis and less NPQ. Furthermore, our results demonstrated variation of the SIF-GPP relationship within C4 crops and highlighted the importance of leaf physiology in determining canopy SIF behaviors and SIF-GPP relationships.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dryness controls temperature-optimized gross primary productivity across vegetation types

Temperature response of gross primary productivity (GPP) is a well-known property of ecosystem, but GPP at the optimum temperature (GPP_T opt ) has not been fully discussed. Our understanding of how GPP_T opt responds to warming and water availability is highly limited. Here, in this study, we analyzed data at 326 globally distributed eddy covariance sites (79°N-37°S), to identify controlling factors of GPP_T opt . Although GPP_T opt was significantly influenced by soil moisture, global solar radiation, mean annual temperature, and vapor pressure deficit in a non-linear pattern (R 2 = 0.47), the direction and magnitude of these climate variables’ effects on GPP_T opt depend on the dryness index (DI), a ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation. The spatial pattern showed that soil moisture did not affect GPP_T opt across energy-limited sites with DI < 1 while dominated GPP_T opt across water-limited sites with DI >1. The temporal pattern showed that GPP_T opt was lowered by warming or low precipitation in water-limited sites while energy-limited sites tended to maintain a stable GPP_T opt regardless of changes in air temperature. Vegetation types in humid climates tended to have higher GPP_T opt and were more likely to benefit from a warmer climate since it was not restricted by water conditions. This study highlights that the response of GPP_T opt to global warming depends on the dryness conditions, which explains the nonlinear control of water and temperature over GPP_T opt . Our finding is essential to realistic prediction of terrestrial carbon uptake under future climate and vegetation conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

TROPOMI observations allow for robust exploration of the relationship between solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and terrestrial gross primary production

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) observed by satellites has advanced the monitoring of terrestrial photosynthesis regionally and globally. The relationship between SIF and gross primary production (GPP) at leaf, canopy, and ecosystem scales has received tremendous attention in recent years. It remains controversial whether the SIF-GPP relationship at the ecosystem scale is universal or dependent upon vegetation type. New SIF observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) with unprecedented high spatial and temporal resolution provide a new opportunity to elucidate the SIF-GPP relationship. Here, we examine the SIF-GPP relationship for seven major vegetation types across the U.S. with TROPOMI SIF and in-situ GPP data for 83 eddy covariance flux sites. We find that TROPOMI SIF shows a strong and consistent relationship with tower-based GPP at both satellite footprint and grid-cell levels. The slope of the SIF-GPP relationship is similar among all the vegetation types except croplands, demonstrating a nearly universal (converging to ~13.5 g C m -2 d -1 /W m -2 μm -1 sr -1) rather than vegetation type-specific SIF-GPP relationship. This confirms that TROPOMI SIF can be used as a proxy for GPP across a wide variety of vegetation types and can also be used to quantify GPP by avoiding uncertainty associated with land cover maps. The C 4 crops have a much higher slope than the C 3 crops, and therefore croplands tend to have a higher slope than C 3 -dominated vegetation types (e.g., forests, shrublands, savannas). We also find that the TROPOMI SIF is well correlated with GPP under normal or wetter conditions, while their relationship becomes weaker under water stress. In conclusion, our TROPOMI-based study could improve our understanding of the SIF-GPP relationship at the ecosystem scale and advance the mapping of GPP globally with SIF observations from space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving estimates of sub-daily gross primary production from solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence by accounting for light distribution within canopy

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has long been regarded as a proxy for photosynthesis and has shown superiority in estimating gross primary production (GPP) compared to traditional vegetation indices, especially in evergreen ecosystems. However, current SIF-based GPP estimations regard the canopy as a large leaf and seldom consider the impact of interactions among light, canopy structure, and leaf physiology. In this study, we proposed GPP estimation models with different descriptions of light–structure–physiology interactions (including the layered model, the two-leaf model, and the layered two-leaf model) and compared their performances with the big-leaf model using half-hourly (or hourly) observations at evergreen needleleaf forest sites. First, we found that the big-leaf model underestimated GPP, especially at noon. All models showed higher accuracy than that of the big-leaf model. Second, we investigated the diurnal dynamics of GPP estimations in each canopy layer and found that models with a two-leaf assumption captured the diurnal variations in GPP better than that with the layered assumption. Here we also deduced that the poor performance of the big-leaf model was related to its overestimation of the overall light stress on the redox state of PSII reaction centers (qL). Finally, we noticed that the qL at the canopy scale had lower sensitivity to light change than the single-leaf qL and that the light response of canopy-scale qL was influenced by the leaf area index during seasonal cycles. Overall, this study describes methods to accurately estimate sub-daily GPP from SIF in evergreen needleleaf forests and demonstrates that the interactions among light, canopy structure, and leaf physiology regulate the SIF-GPP relationship at the canopy scale. Further, it indicates the need to consider the description of light distribution within the canopy in next-generation terrestrial biosphere models, even if they incorporate SIF to constrain their parameterization. Thus, upscaling the established leaf-scale mechanistic SIF-GPP relationship or findings to canopy-scale applications still requires much work, especially when there are significant changes in environmental conditions and their within-canopy distributions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

State-of-Charge Investigation of Lithium Manganese Dioxide Primary Batteries Utilizing X-ray Computed Tomography

Lithium primary batteries (LPBs) represent a class of energy storage devices, uniquely suited for mission-critical applications including emergency backup power, aerospace and defense electronics, implantable medical devices, and remote sensing. Despite their technological maturity and distinct advantages over rechargeable lithium-ion batteries (i.e., superior shelf life and operational simplicity), state-of-charge (SoC) estimation in these batteries remains a persistent challenge due to the lack of a reliable, quantifiable diagnostic technique. In this work, we investigate X-ray computed tomography (X-CT) as a transformative and accurate SoC estimation technique for LPBs. Results gained through X-CT measurements reveal systematic, quantifiable structural changes in cathode morphology and geometry during discharge, establishing a direct structural basis for SoC estimation, with a maximum relative standard deviation of 2.3%. This work establishes a pathway toward operando, imaging-driven SoC diagnostics that can significantly enhance the reliability of SoC estimation in LPBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Detection of Primary Biological Aerosol Particles Using Machine Learning and Single-Particle Measurement

Accurately identifying primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) using analytical techniques poses inherent challenges due to their resemblance to other atmospheric carbonaceous particles. Here, we present a study of an enhanced method for detecting PBAPs by combining single-particle measurement with advanced supervised machine learning (SML) techniques. We analyzed ambient particles from a variety of environments and lab-generated standards, focusing on chemical composition for traditional rule-based and clustering approaches and incorporating morphological features into the SML approaches, neural networks and XGBoost, for improved accuracy. This study demonstrates that SML methods outperform traditional methods in quantifying PBAPs, achieving significant improvements in precision, recall, F1-score, and accuracy, leading to an increased number of detected PBAPs by at least 19%. The adaptability of the proposed XGBoost-based SML model is showcased in comparison to traditional methods in categorizing PBAPs for blind data sets from different geographical locations. Two field case studies were investigated, over agricultural land and Amazonia rain forest, representing relatively low and high concentrations of PBAPs, respectively, where XGBoost consistently detected up to 3.5 times more PBAPs than traditional methods. Precise detection of PBAPs in the atmosphere could significantly improve the prediction of climatic impacts by them.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Diffuse Radiation Forcing Constraints on Gross Primary Productivity and Global Terrestrial Evapotranspiration

Abstract The diffuse radiation fertilization effect—the increase in plant productivity in the presence of higher diffuse radiation ( K ↓,d )—is an important yet understudied aspect of atmosphere‐biosphere interactions and can modify the terrestrial carbon, energy, and water budgets. The K ↓,d fertilization effect links the carbon cycle with clouds and aerosols, all of which are large sources of uncertainties for our current understanding of the Earth system and for future climate projections. Here we establish to what extent observational and modeling uncertainty in sunlight's diffuse fraction ( k d ) affects simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and terrestrial evapotranspiration ( λE ). We find only 48 eddy covariance sites with simultaneous sufficient measurements of K ↓,d with none in the tropical climate zone, making it difficult to constrain this mechanism globally using observations. Using a land modeling framework based on the latest version of the Community Land Model, we find that global GPP ranges from 114 Pg C year −1 when using k d forcing from the Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 reanalysis to a ∼7% higher value of 122 Pg C year −1 when using the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System satellite product, with especially strong differences apparent over the tropical region (mean increase ∼9%). The differences in λE , although smaller (−0.4%) due to competing changes in shaded and sunlit leaf transpiration, can be greater than regional impacts of individual forcing agents like aerosols. Our results demonstrate the importance of comprehensively and systematically validating the simulated k d by atmosphere modules as well as the response to differences in k d within land modules across Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biodiversity and Stoichiometric Plasticity Increase Pico‐Phytoplankton Contributions to Marine Net Primary Productivity and the Biological Pump

Earth System Models generally predict increasing upper ocean stratification from 21st century warming, which will cause a decrease in the vertical nutrient flux forcing declines in marine net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon export. Recent advances in quantifying marine ecosystem carbon to nutrient stoichiometry have identified large latitudinal and biome variability, with low-latitude oligotrophic systems harboring pico-sized phytoplankton exhibiting large phosphorus to carbon cellular plasticity. The climate forced changes in nutrient flux stoichiometry and phytoplankton community composition are thus likely to alter the ocean's biogeochemical response and feedback with the carbon-climate system. We have added three pico-phytoplankton functional types within the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling component of the Community Earth System Model while incorporating variable cellular phosphorus to carbon stoichiometry for all represented phytoplankton types. The model simulates Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations that dominate the productivity and sinking carbon export of the tropical and subtropical ocean, and pico-eukaryote populations that contribute significantly to productivity and export within the subtropical to mid-latitude transition zone, with the western subtropical regions of each basin supporting the most P-poor stoichiometries. Subtropical gyre recirculation regions along the poleward flanks of surface western boundary currents are identified as regional hotspots of enhanced carbon export exhibiting C-rich/P-poor stoichiometry, preferentially inhabited by pico-eukaryotes and diatoms. Collectively, pico-phytoplankton contribute ∼58% of global NPP and ∼46% of global particulate organic carbon export below 100 m through direct and ecosystem processing pathways. Biodiversity and cellular nutrient plasticity in marine pico-phytoplankton combine to increase their contributions to ocean productivity and the biological carbon pump.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased salinity decreases annual gross primary productivity at a Northern California brackish tidal marsh

Tidal marshes sequester 11.4–87.0 Tg C yr –1 globally, but climate change impacts can threaten the carbon capture potential of these ecosystems. Tidal marshes occur across a wide range of salinity, with brackish marshes (0.5–18 ppt (parts per thousand)) dominating global tidal marsh extents. A diverse mix of freshwater- and saltwater-tolerant plant and microbial communities has led researchers to predict that carbon cycling in brackish wetlands may be less sensitive to changes in salinity than fresh- or saltwater wetlands. Rush Ranch, a well-monitored brackish tidal wetland of the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, experiences highly variable annual salinity regimes. Within a five-year period (2014–2018), Rush Ranch experienced particularly extreme drought-induced salinization during the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons. During drought years, tidal channel salinity rose from a 15 year baseline of 4.7 ppt to growing season peaks of 10.3 ppt and 12.5 ppt. Continuous eddy covariance data from 2014 to 2018 demonstrate that during drought summers, gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by 24%, whereas ecosystem respiration remained similar among all five years. Stepwise linear regression revealed that salinity, not air temperature or tidal height, was the dominant driver of annual GPP. A random forest model trained to predict GPP based on environmental data from low salinity years (i.e. naive to salinization) significantly over predicted GPP in drought years. When growing season salinities were doubled, annual estimates of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 decreased by up to 30%. These results provide ecosystem-scale evidence that increased salinity influences CO 2 fluxes dominantly through reductions in GPP. This relationship provides a starting point for incorporating the effect of changes in salinity in wetland carbon models, which could improve wetland carbon forecasting and management for climate resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonnegligible cascading impacts of global urban expansion on net primary productivity

Accelerated global urban expansion not only directly occupies surrounding ecosystems, but also induces cascading losses of natural vegetation elsewhere through cropland displacement. Yet, how such effects alter the net primary productivity (NPP) worldwide remains unclear. Here, we quantified the direct and cascading impacts of global urban expansion on terrestrial NPP from 1992 to 2020 and projected the impacts under the shared socioeconomic pathways framework by 2100. We found that global urban expansion caused a cascading loss of 29.2 to 63.9 Tg C/year of terrestrial NPP in the historical period (1992–2020), accounting for 13–29% of the total direct NPP loss. Instead, our projections indicate that during 2020–2100, mainly due to the increased relocation of displaced croplands to low-productive ecosystems, the cascading impacts gradually change from negative to positive, leading to a net NPP increase. Such an increase may offset up to 7% of the total direct NPP loss, better balancing crop compensation with NPP maintenance. Our findings highlight the unexpected large cascading impacts of urban expansion on the carbon cycle and stress the importance of regulating land transitions to curtail land-use emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗