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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1972

Correlation signatures of wet soils and snows

Interpretation, analysis, and development of algorithms have provided the necessary computational programming tools for soil data processing, data handling and analysis. Algorithms that have been developed thus far, are adequate and have been proven successful for several preliminary and fundamental applications such as software interfacing capabilities, probability distributions, grey level print plotting, contour plotting, isometric data displays, joint probability distributions, boundary mapping, channel registration and ground scene classification. A description of an Earth Resources Flight Data Processor, (ERFDP), which handles and processes earth resources data under a users control is provided.

Phillips, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Disturbance Dynamics in Transitional and Turbulent Flows

In order to expand the predictive capability of single-point turbulence closure models to account for the early-stage transition regime, a methodology for the formulation and calibration of model equations for the ensemble-averaged disturbance kinetic energy and energy dissipation rate is presented. First the decay of laminar disturbances and turbulence in mean shear-free flows is studied. In laminar flows, such disturbances are linear superpositions of modes governed by the Orr-Sommerfeld equation. In turbulent flows, disturbances are described through transport equations for representative mean quantities. The link between a description based on a deterministic evolution equation and a probability based mean transport equation is established. Because an uncertainty in initial conditions exists in the laminar as well as the turbulent regime, a probability distribution must be defined even in the laminar case. Using this probability distribution, it is shown that the exponential decay of the linear modes in the laminar regime can be related to a power law decay of both the (ensemble) mean disturbance kinetic energy and the dissipation rate. The evolution of these mean disturbance quantities is then described by transport equations similar to those for the corresponding turbulent decaying flow. Second, homogeneous shear flow, where disturbances can be described by rapid distortion theory (RDT), is studied. The relationship between RDT and linear stability theory is exploited in order to obtain a closed set of modeled equations. The linear disturbance equations are solved directly so that the numerical simulation yields a database from which the closure coefficients in the ensemble-averaged disturbance equations can be determined.

Grosch, Chester E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Velocity distributions among colliding asteroids

The probability distribution for impact velocities between two given asteroids is wide, non-Gaussian, and often contains spikes according to our new method of analysis in which each possible orbital geometry for collision is weighted according to its probability. An average value would give a good representation only if the distribution were smooth and narrow. Therefore, the complete velocity distribution we obtain for various asteroid populations differs significantly from published histograms of average velocities. For all pairs among the 682 asteroids in the main-belt with D greater than 50 km, we find that our computed velocity distribution is much wider than previously computed histograms of average velocities. In this case, the most probable impact velocity is approximately 4.4 km/sec, compared with the mean impact velocity of 5.3 km/sec. For cases of a single asteroid (e.g., Gaspra or Ida) relative to an impacting population, the distribution we find yields lower velocities than previously reported by others. The width of these velocity distributions implies that mean impact velocities must be used with caution when calculating asteroid collisional lifetimes or crater-size distributions. Since the most probable impact velocities are lower than the mean, disruption events may occur less frequently than previously estimated. However, this disruption rate may be balanced somewhat by an apparent increase in the frequency of high-velocity impacts between asteroids. These results have implications for issues such as asteroidal disruption rates, the amount/type of impact ejecta available for meteoritical delivery to the Earth, and the geology and evolution of specific asteroids like Gaspra.

Bottke, William F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A simulator for evaluating methods for the detection of lesion-deficit associations

Although much has been learned about the functional organization of the human brain through lesion-deficit analysis, the variety of statistical and image-processing methods developed for this purpose precludes a closed-form analysis of the statistical power of these systems. Therefore, we developed a lesion-deficit simulator (LDS), which generates artificial subjects, each of which consists of a set of functional deficits, and a brain image with lesions; the deficits and lesions conform to predefined distributions. We used probability distributions to model the number, sizes, and spatial distribution of lesions, to model the structure-function associations, and to model registration error. We used the LDS to evaluate, as examples, the effects of the complexities and strengths of lesion-deficit associations, and of registration error, on the power of lesion-deficit analysis. We measured the numbers of recovered associations from these simulated data, as a function of the number of subjects analyzed, the strengths and number of associations in the statistical model, the number of structures associated with a particular function, and the prior probabilities of structures being abnormal. The number of subjects required to recover the simulated lesion-deficit associations was found to have an inverse relationship to the strength of associations, and to the smallest probability in the structure-function model. The number of structures associated with a particular function (i.e., the complexity of associations) had a much greater effect on the performance of the analysis method than did the total number of associations. We also found that registration error of 5 mm or less reduces the number of associations discovered by approximately 13% compared to perfect registration. The LDS provides a flexible framework for evaluating many aspects of lesion-deficit analysis.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Determination of proton PDF uncertainties with Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present an analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC approach naturally implements Bayes’ theorem and, thus, provides a means to directly sample the underlying probability distribution—in this case, the probability distribution of the PDF parameters. This allows for a straightforward propagation of the resulting uncertainties into any PDF-dependent observable, preserving their simple probabilistic interpretation. In our analysis we include a broad set of deep inelastic scattering data from HERA, BCDMS and NMC experiments along with the Drell-Yan, 𝑊 and 𝑍 boson data from LHC and Tevatron experiments, which combined with theoretical calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order in QCD allow for realistic determination of PDFs. The main focus of this analysis is to explore alternative methods for PDF uncertainty estimation that are more firmly grounded in statistical principles. We show that the flexibility of the Bayes framework, allowing one, e.g., to account for non-Gaussianity or inconsistencies of datasets, is crucial to extract realistic uncertainties when such assumptions are not fulfilled. We also demonstrate that MCMC allows one to determine the Δ⁢𝜒 2 value corresponding to a given confidence level in the sample, which can, in turn, be used as a statistically well-founded tolerance criterion used in the Hessian method, thus addressing one of its main long-standing drawbacks.

Risse, Peter Clemens [Universität Münster (Germany↗
NASA NTRS1981

The reliability of multistate, multioutput systems

A system which can generate multiple signals such that each signal can have different quality states is modeled. A measure of the effectiveness of the system as a function of the status of its components is developed. Assuming only that the probability distribution of the status of each component is known, bounds on the probability distribution of the system's measure of effectiveness are developed.

Subelman, E. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Review of probabilistic analysis of dynamic response of systems with random parameters

The various methods that have been studied in the past to allow probabilistic analysis of dynamic response for systems with random parameters are reviewed. Dynamic response may have been obtained deterministically if the variations about the nominal values were small; however, for space structures which require precise pointing, the variations about the nominal values of the structural details and of the environmental conditions are too large to be considered as negligible. These uncertainties are accounted for in terms of probability distributions about their nominal values. The quantities of concern for describing the response of the structure includes displacements, velocities, and the distributions of natural frequencies. The exact statistical characterization of the response would yield joint probability distributions for the response variables. Since the random quantities will appear as coefficients, determining the exact distributions will be difficult at best. Thus, certain approximations will have to be made. A number of techniques that are available are discussed, even in the nonlinear case. The methods that are described were: (1) Liouville's equation; (2) perturbation methods; (3) mean square approximate systems; and (4) nonlinear systems with approximation by linear systems.

Kozin, F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence

A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation of the dynamical models in a parameterized form reduces the task of common-sense-based decision making to a solution of the following hetero-associated-memory problem: store a set of m predetermined stochastic processes given by their probability distributions in such a way that when presented with an unexpected change in the form of an input out of the set of M inputs, the coupled motormental dynamics converges to the corresponding one of the m pre-assigned stochastic process, and a sample of this process represents the decision.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS1983

Four-dimensional symmetry from a broad viewpoint. II Invariant distribution of quantized field oscillators and questions on infinities

The foundation of the quantum field theory is changed by introducing a new universal probability principle into field operators: one single inherent and invariant probability distribution P(/k/) is postulated for boson and fermion field oscillators. This can be accomplished only when one treats the four-dimensional symmetry from a broad viewpoint. Special relativity is too restrictive to allow such a universal probability principle. A radical length, R, appears in physics through the probability distribution P(/k/). The force between two point particles vanishes when their relative distance tends to zero. This appears to be a general property for all forces and resembles the property of asymptotic freedom. The usual infinities in vacuum fluctuations and in local interactions, however complicated they may be, are all removed from quantum field theories. In appendix A a simple finite and unitary theory of unified electroweak interactions is discussed without assuming Higgs scalar bosons.

Hsu, J. P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1973

System statistical reliability model and analysis

A digital computer code was developed to simulate the time-dependent behavior of the 5-kwe reactor thermoelectric system. The code was used to determine lifetime sensitivity coefficients for a number of system design parameters, such as thermoelectric module efficiency and degradation rate, radiator absorptivity and emissivity, fuel element barrier defect constant, beginning-of-life reactivity, etc. A probability distribution (mean and standard deviation) was estimated for each of these design parameters. Then, error analysis was used to obtain a probability distribution for the system lifetime (mean = 7.7 years, standard deviation = 1.1 years). From this, the probability that the system will achieve the design goal of 5 years lifetime is 0.993. This value represents an estimate of the degradation reliability of the system.

Lekach, V. S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Generalized probability model for calculation of interference to the Deep Space Network due to circularly Earth-orbiting satellites

The probability of exceeding interference power levels and the duration of interference at the Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna is calculated parametrically when the state vector of an Earth-orbiting satellite over the DSN station view area is not known. A conditional probability distribution function is derived, transformed, and then convolved with the interference signal uncertainties to yield the probability distribution of interference at any given instant during the orbiter's mission period. The analysis is applicable to orbiting satellites having circular orbits with known altitude and inclination angle.

Ruggier, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Main Geomagnetic Field Models from Oersted and Magsat Data Via a Rigorous General Inverse Theory with Error Bounds

The purpose of the grant was to study how prior information about the geomagnetic field can be used to interpret surface and satellite magnetic measurements, to generate quantitative descriptions of prior information that might be so used, and to use this prior information to obtain from satellite data a model of the core field with statistically justifiable error estimates. The need for prior information in geophysical inversion has long been recognized. Data sets are finite, and faithful descriptions of aspects of the earth almost always require infinite-dimensional model spaces. By themselves, the data can confine the correct earth model only to an infinite-dimensional subset of the model space. Earth properties other than direct functions of the observed data cannot be estimated from those data without prior information about the earth. Prior information is based on what the observer already knows before the data become available. Such information can be "hard" or "soft". Hard information is a belief that the real earth must lie in some known region of model space. For example, the total ohmic dissipation in the core is probably less that the total observed geothermal heat flow out of the earth's surface. (In principle, ohmic heat in the core can be recaptured to help drive the dynamo, but this effect is probably small.) "Soft" information is a probability distribution on the model space, a distribution that the observer accepts as a quantitative description of her/his beliefs about the earth. The probability distribution can be a subjective prior in the sense of Bayes or the objective result of a statistical study of previous data or relevant theories.

Backus, George E.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Technology Development Risk Assessment for Space Transportation Systems

A new approach for assessing development risk associated with technology development projects is presented. The method represents technology evolution in terms of sector-specific discrete development stages. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate development probability distributions based on statistical models of the discrete transitions. Development risk is derived from the resulting probability distributions and specific program requirements. Two sample cases are discussed to illustrate the approach, a single rocket engine development and a three-technology space transportation portfolio.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗
NASA NTRS1954

A study of the application of power-spectral methods of generalized harmonic analysis to gust loads on airplanes

The applicability of some results from the theory of generalized harmonic analysis (or power-spectral analysis) to the analysis of gust loads on airplanes in continuous rough air is examined. The general relations for linear systems between power spectrums of a random input disturbance and an output response are used to relate the spectrum of airplane load in rough air to the spectrum of atmospheric gust velocity. The power spectrum of loads is shown to provide a measure of the load intensity in terms of the standard deviation (root mean square) of the load distribution for an airplane in flight through continuous rough air. For the case of a load output having a normal distribution, which appears from experimental evidence to apply to homogeneous rough air, the standard deviation is shown to describe the probability distribution of loads or the proportion of total time that the load has given values. Thus, for airplane in flight through homogeneous rough air, the probability distribution of loads may be determined from a power-spectral analysis. In order to illustrate the application of power-spectral analysis to gust-load analysis and to obtain an insight into the relations between loads and airplane gust-response characteristics, two selected series of calculations are presented. The results indicate that both methods of analysis yield results that are consistent to a first approximation.

Press, Harry↗
NASA NTRS1986

An information measure for class discrimination

This article describes a separability measure for class discrimination. This measure is based on the Fisher information measure for estimating the mixing proportion of two classes. The Fisher information measure not only provides a means to assess quantitatively the information content in the features for separating classes, but also gives the lower bound for the variance of any unbiased estimate of the mixing proportion based on observations of the features. Unlike most commonly used separability measures, this measure is not dependent on the form of the probability distribution of the features and does not imply a specific estimation procedure. This is important because the probability distribution function that describes the data for a given class does not have simple analytic forms, such as a Gaussian. Results of applying this measure to compare the information content provided by three Landsat-derived feature vectors for the purpose of separating small grains from other crops are presented.

Shen, S. S.↗