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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

PyPVRPM: Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model in Python

The ability to perform accurate techno-economic analysis of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is essential for bankability and investment purposes. Most energy yield models assume an almost flawless operation (i.e., no failures); however, realistically, components fail and get repaired stochastically. This package, PyPVRPM, is a Python translation and improvement of the Language Kit (LK) based PhotoVoltaic Reliability Performance Model (PVRPM), which was first developed at Sandia National Laboratories in Goldsim software (Granata et al., 2011) (Miller et al., 2012). PyPVRPM allows the user to define a PV system at a specific location and incorporate failure, repair, and detection rates and distributions to calculate energy yield and other financial metrics such as the levelized cost of energy and net present value (Klise, Lavrova, et al., 2017). Our package is a simulation tool that uses NREL’s Python interface for System Advisor Model (SAM) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020b) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020a) to evaluate the performance of a PV plant throughout its lifetime by considering component reliability metrics. Besides the numerous benefits from migrating to Python (e.g., speed, libraries, batch analyses), it also expands on the failure and repair processes from the LK version by including the ability to vary monitoring strategies. These failures, repairs, and monitoring processes are based on user-defined distributions and values, enabling a more accurate and realistic representation of cost and availability throughout a PV system’s lifetime.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

pvplr-python: Python package implementation of PVplr for Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis

Due to software fragmentation, PV system modeling teams can be limited to language specific packages, preventing cross-sectional analysis of different modeling techniques and workflows. To this end, PVplr, a popular PV performance modeling R software package, has been ported to the Python programming language. To verify and test the robustness of the port, NSRDB data has been used to simulated PV installations at native resolution (~2 million Sites), with a variety of degradation rates, degradation patterns, and modules. Performance Ratios were calculated using the ported functions from pvplr-python and compared against Rdtools YoY values. Due to the complicated nature of degradation, a new metric has been proposed to quantify the performance loss of a system. The cumulative production loss, is the total amount of energy lost due to the degrading performance of the system. Cumulative production loss alleviates the problems with fitting linear functions to non-linear degradation. Cumulative Production loss was shown to better estimate the total lost revenue for non-linear degradation patterns. $XbX + UTC$ was found to most accurately predict the total lost revenue in simulated systems.

Kumar, Suraj↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: Modeling and Comparison Against Conventional Methods

Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (RD) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear RD based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio (PR) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, “nonconventional” models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid renewable energy systems: the value of storage as a function of PV-wind variability

As shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) on the electric grid increase, sources of grid flexibility will become increasingly important for maintaining the reliability and affordability of electricity supply. Lithium-ion battery energy storage has been identified as an important and cost-effective source of flexibility, both by itself and when coupled with VRE technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind. In this study, we explored the current and future value of utility-scale hybrid energy systems comprising PV, wind, and lithium-ion battery technologies (PV-wind-battery systems). Using a price-taker model with simulated hourly energy and capacity prices, we simulated the revenue-maximizing dispatch of a range of PV-wind-battery configurations across Texas, from the present through 2050. Holding PV capacity and point-of-interconnection capacity constant, we modeled configurations with varying wind-to-PV capacity ratios and battery-to-PV capacity ratios. We found that coupling PV, wind, and battery technologies allows for more effective utilization of interconnection capacity by increasing capacity factors to 60%–80%+ and capacity credits to close to 100%, depending on battery capacity. We also compared the energy and capacity values of PV-wind and PV-wind-battery systems to the corresponding stability coefficient metric, which describes the location-and configuration-specific complementarity of PV and wind resources. Our results show that the stability coefficient effectively predicts the configuration-location combinations in which a smaller battery component can provide comparable economic performance in a PV-wind-battery system (compared to a PV-battery system). These PV-wind-battery hybrids can help integrate more VRE by providing smoother, more predictable generation and greater flexibility.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Economic and Deployment Benefits of Wind-PV Hybrid Power Plants

The least-cost approach to decarbonizing the U.S. electricity supply will likely involve a significantly expanded share of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation. Many strategies and approaches have been identified to address integration challenges in a VRE-dominated system, including standalone and coupled battery systems. In this study, we explored the current and future potential of utility-scale hybrid energy systems comprising PV, wind, and lithium-ion battery technologies (PV-wind-battery systems). Analysis results include temporal complementarity of wind and PV resources across the contiguous United States, with an emphasis on metrics that quantify reductions in variability that can be achieved through hybridization. We further use a price-taker model with simulated hourly energy and capacity prices to determine the revenue-maximizing dispatch of a range of PV-wind-battery configurations across Texas, from the present through 2050. We find that coupling PV, wind, and battery technologies allows for more effective utilization of interconnection capacity by increasing capacity factors to 60-80%+ and capacity credits to close to 100%, depending on battery capacity. We also compared the energy and capacity values of PV-wind and PV-wind-battery systems to the corresponding stability coefficient metric, which describes the location-and configuration-specific complementarity of PV and wind resources. Our results show that the stability coefficient effectively predicts the configuration-location combinations in which a smaller battery component can provide comparable economic performance in a PV-wind-battery system (compared to a PV-battery system). These PV-wind-battery hybrids can help integrate more VRE by providing smoother, more predictable generation and greater flexibility. Finally, capacity expansion modeling of PV-wind systems indicates that hybridization can reduce transmission expansion requirements associated with a heavily decarbonized U.S. electricity system.

complementarity↗
DOE OSTI2025

sdt (Solar Data Tools) [SWR-25-130]

Solar Data Tools (sdt) is an open-source Python library for analyzing PV power (and irradiance) time-series data. It was developed to enable analysis of unlabeled PV data, i.e. with no model, no meteorological data, and no performance index required, by taking a statistical signal processing approach in the algorithms used in the package’s main data processing pipeline. Solar Data Tools empowers PV system fleet owners or operators to analyze system performance a hundred times faster even when they only have access to the most basic data stream—power output of the system.

Meyers-Im, Bennet [National Laboratory of the Rock↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of duration and missing data on the long-term photovoltaic degradation rate estimation

Accurate quantification of photovoltaic (PV) system degradation rate (R D ) is essential for lifetime yield predictions. Although R D is a critical parameter, its estimation lacks a standardized methodology that can be applied on outdoor field data. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of time period duration and missing data on R D by analyzing the performance of different techniques applied to synthetic PV system data at different linear R D patterns and known noise conditions. The analysis includes the application of different techniques to a 10-year synthetic dataset of a crystalline Silicon PV system, with emulated degradation levels and imputed missing data. Here, the analysis demonstrated that the accuracy of ordinary least squares (OLS), year-on-year (YOY), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and robust principal component analysis (RPCA) techniques is affected by the evaluation duration with all techniques converging to lower R D deviations over the 10-year evaluation, apart from RPCA at high degradation levels. Moreover, the estimated R D is strongly affected by the amount of missing data. Filtering out the corrupted data yielded more accurate R D results for all techniques. It is proven that the application of a change-point detection stage is necessary and guidelines for accurate R D estimation are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models: Preprint

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to inter-hourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of said approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating two different clipping correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons will be performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The models can improve accuracy up to 3% in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

clipping↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Adaptive Volt-VAR to Mitigate PV Impacts [Slides]

Distributed generation (DG) sources like photovoltaic (PV) systems with advanced inverters are able to perform grid-support functions, like autonomous Volt-VAR that attempts to mitigate voltage issues by injecting or consuming reactive power. However, the Volt-VAR function operates with VAR priority, meaning real power may be curtailed to provide additional reactive power support. Since some locations on the grid may be more prone to higher voltages than others, PV systems installed at those locations may be forced to curtail more power, adversely impacting the value of that PV system. Adaptive Volt-VAR (AVV) could be implemented as an alternative, whereby the Volt-VAR reference voltage changes over time, but this functionality has not been well-explored in the literature. In this work, the potential benefits and grid impacts of AVV were investigated using yearlong quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations. After testing a variety of allowable AVV settings, we found that even with aggressive settings AVV resulted in <0.01% real power curtailment and significantly reduced the reactive power support required from the PV inverter compared to conventional Volt-VAR but did not provide much mitigation for extreme voltage conditions. The reactive power support provided by AVV was injected to oppose large deviations in voltage (in either direction), indicating that it could be useful for other applications like reducing voltage flicker or minimizing interactions with other voltage regulating devices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaics module reliability for the terawatt age

Photovoltaics (PV), or solar electricity generation, has become the cheapest form of energy in many locations worldwide and, combined with energy storage, has the potential to satisfy most of our electricity needs. PV has grown at an annual compounded growth rate of approximately 30% in the last three decades. Solar energy systems will continue their impressive growth in distributed energy, microgrids, and utility scale, as efforts are made for dependable electricity in an age with increasing extreme weather. However, within this remarkable success lies a new challenge. The growth curve, combined with rapid product innovation and scale up, means that the majority of PV systems are new, without the three years of performance data that have been required in the past to estimate product lifetime. PV reliability has to address this challenge. In this review we present a brief summary of PV reliability starting with brief historical synopsis, detailing some of the technological challenges and present a framework required for long lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved PV System Control Strategies to Reduce Power Management Costs in Nanogrids

An improved PV system control method is proposed to reduce nanogrid operation costs in this paper. A model including it various components such as photovoltaic (PV) systems, energy storage systems (ESSs), gateways, and household loads is considered with the constraints of the ESS, PV irradiance from real data, and household load. We designed an optimal economic dispatch strategy with an improved PV system control method. Combining the proposed optimal economic dispatch and PV system control strategies, it can improve the control performance for both transient and steady-state responses thereby enabling the maximum power to be extracted from the PV. Consequently, the PV power is maximized, which allows the ESS to use less power and sell the surplus to external power sources, which means the proposed method decreases the nanogrid operation costs. Furthermore, this performance is verified via nanogrid simulations and PV experimental kit.

PV system control↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to subhourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

accuracy↗
DOE OSTI2026

SolarAPP+ Performance Review (2024 Data)

The Solar Automated Permit Processing Plus (SolarAPP+) platform is an online portal to facilitate and expedite rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage permitting processes. SolarAPP+ allows PV contractors to upload system specifications, have that information automatically reviewed for code compliance, and receive instant approval for code-compliant systems, reducing authority having jurisdiction (AHJ) staff time needed for review. SolarAPP+ also provides inspection checklists to verify installation practices and adherence to approved designs. This report is part of an ongoing series of reviews of SolarAPP+ performance. Consistent with previous performance reviews, we summarize SolarAPP+ adoption trends to date and compare various metrics for PV systems permitted through SolarAPP+ versus systems permitted through traditional AHJ permitting processes. As of the end of 2024, 799 AHJs had expressed interest in the platform, with 264 fully adopting (215) or piloting (49) the platform. In 2024, 861 installers submitted 37,393 permits through the SolarAPP+ platform, including 27,375 permits for PV+storage systems. SolarAPP+ permits accounted for around 43% of all permits issued in all participating AHJs, and more than 60% of all permits in several participating AHJs. We compare permitting timelines through SolarAPP+ to traditional AHJ permitting processes to assess the platform's performance. Consistent with previous SolarAPP+ performance reviews, we find that permitting timelines are significantly shorter for SolarAPP+ projects. Based on median timelines, a typical SolarAPP+ project is permitted and inspected 12 business days sooner than traditional projects. We estimate that automatic SolarAPP+ permitting saved around 18,400 hours of AHJ staff time in 2024. Finally, we estimate that SolarAPP+ eliminated over 100,000 business days in permitting-related delays in 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series: Preprint

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as abrupt time series data shifts. These shifts, which are usually unintentional, may be caused by software or hardware configuration changes on a PV system, and do not reflect an actual change in overall system performance. Locating these shifts and segmenting the associated time series aids in more accurate future PV analysis. In this research, an offline changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects these abrupt data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window for the labeled data sets. To promote further research in this space, we are releasing the labeled data shift sets on U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package.

changepoint detection↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cyber and Physical Security Analysis of GSI and Noventum Application for IoT Communications

We present our findings of the red team exercise conducted on the device and application developed by Guardian Sensors, Inc. (GSI) and Noventum. The app is used for situational awareness and control of photovoltaics (PV) and microgrid energy systems. The assessments performed are practical case scenarios that assess the risks and vulnerabilities posed by the app through targeted activities that could be engaged by an adversary. The assessment team’s results and recommendations are provided to inform on and mitigate the identified weaknesses to improve secure user authentication, connections, and communications. The recommendations in this report are not intended to be a security panacea but will add the desired defense-in-depth layer to securing communication of such interconnected systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as abrupt time series data shifts. These shifts, which are usually unintentional, may be caused by software or hardware configuration changes on a PV system, and do not reflect an actual change in overall system performance. Locating these shifts and segmenting the associated time series aids in more accurate future PV analysis. In this research, an offline changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects these abrupt data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window for the labeled data sets. To promote further research in this space, we are releasing the labeled data shift sets on U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package.

changepoint detection↗