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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Effect of causality constraints on Bayesian analyses of heavy-ion collisions

There have long been questions about the limits to the validity of relativistic fluid dynamics and whether it is being used outside its regime of validity in modern simulations of relativistic heavy-ion collisions. An important new tool for answering this question is a causality analysis in the nonlinear regime—if the solutions of the evolution equations do not respect relativistic causality, then they are not a faithful representation of the underlying relativistic theory (in this case, quantum chromodynamics). Using this nonlinear criterion, it has recently been shown that hydrodynamics is indeed being used outside its regime of validity in simulations, at least sometimes. Here we explore the phenomenological implications, particularly the quantitative effects of demanding limits on acausality in modern Bayesian parameter estimation. We find that, while typically only a small fraction of the system's energy is initially in an acausal regime, placing strict limits on the allowed energy fraction significantly changes the preferred properties of the initial condition, which in turn alters the extracted medium properties such as bulk viscosity, where large values are no longer favored. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of developing better theoretical descriptions of the early-time, out-of-equilibrium dynamics of relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

Bayesian methods↗

Detectability of QCD phase transitions in binary neutron star mergers: Bayesian inference with the next generation gravitational wave detectors

We study the detectability of postmerger QCD phase transitions in neutron star binaries with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope. We perform numerical relativity simulations of neutron star mergers with equations of state that include a quark deconfinement phase transition through either a Gibbs or Maxwell construction. These are followed by Bayesian parameter estimation of the associated gravitational-wave signals using the nrpmw waveform model, with priors inferred from the analysis of the inspiral signal. We assess the ability of the model to measure the postmerger peak frequency $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ and identify aspects that should be improved in the model. We show that, even at postmerger signal to noise ratios as low as 10, the model can distinguish (at the 90% level) $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ between binaries with and without a phase transition in most cases. Phase-transition induced deviations in the $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ from the predictions of equation-of-state insensitive relations can also be detected if they exceed 1.6⁢σ. Our results suggest that next-generation gravitational wave detectors can measure phase transition effects in binary neutron star mergers. Furthermore, unless the phase transition is “strong,” disentangling it from other hadronic physics uncertainties will require significant theory improvements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probing electromagnetic nonreciprocity with quantum geometry of photonic states

Reciprocal and nonreciprocal effects in dielectric and magnetic materials provide crucial information about the microscopic properties of electrons. However, experimentally distinguishing the two has proven to be challenging, especially when the associated effects are extremely small. To this end, we propose a contactless detection using a cross-cavity device where a material of interest is placed at its center. We show that the optical properties of the material, such as Kerr and Faraday rotation, or birefringence, manifest in the coupling between the cavity's electromagnetic modes and in the shift of their resonant frequencies. By calculating the dynamics of a geometrical photonic state, we formulate a measurement protocol based on the quantum metric and quantum process tomography that isolates the individual components of the material's complex refractive index and minimizes the quantum mechanical Cramér-Rao bound on the variance of the associated parameter estimation. Our approach is expected to be applicable across a broad spectrum of experimental platforms including Fock states in optical cavities, or coherent states in microwave and THz resonators. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Petrides, Ioannis (ORCID:0000000174842444)↗

Generalized Cycle Benchmarking Algorithm for Characterizing Midcircuit Measurements

Midcircuit measurements (MCMs) are crucial ingredients in the development of fault-tolerant quantum computation. While there have been rapid experimental progresses in realizing MCMs, a systematic method for characterizing noisy MCMs is still under exploration. In this work, we develop a cycle benchmarking (CB)-type algorithm to characterize noisy MCMs. The key idea is to use a joint Fourier transform on the classical and quantum registers and then estimate parameters in the Fourier space, analogous to Pauli fidelities used in CB-type algorithms for characterizing the Pauli-noise channel of Clifford gates. Furthermore, we develop a theory of the noise learnability of MCMs, which determines what information can be learned about the noise model (in the presence of state preparation and terminating measurement noise) and what cannot, which shows that all learnable information can be learned using our algorithm. As an application, we show how to use the learned information to test the independence between measurement noise and state-preparation noise in an MCM. Finally, we conduct numerical simulations to illustrate the practical applicability of the algorithm. Similar to other CB-type algorithms, we expect the algorithm to provide a useful toolkit that is of experimental interest. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Zhang, Zhihan (ORCID:0009000862907691)↗

Greybox Thermal Parameter Identification of Electric Machine Stators

The parameters of electric machine thermal equivalent circuit networks are difficult to predict due to material and manufacturing uncertainties. In this paper, a Greybox system identification approach is used to identify parameters of electric machine stator lumped parameter thermal networks (LPTNs). LPTNs provide a low order, computationally efficient, dynamic model of temperatures at specific locations. Second and third order LPTN model structures are defined as state space equations with stator thermal parameters to be identified. To test the Greybox electric machine stator thermal system identification, five stator motorette prototypes were constructed with controlled variations in slot fill and slot liner thickness. The variation in the motorette thermal parameters and thermal time constants are detected using the Greybox identification. Special attention is given to the impact of sampling rate and Greybox data record length on parameter estimation accuracy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Optimal Power Management for Large-Scale Battery Energy Storage Systems via Bayesian Inference

Large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) have found ever-increasing use across industry and society to accelerate clean energy transition and improve energy supply reliability and resilience. However, their optimal power management poses significant challenges: the underlying high-dimensional nonlinear nonconvex optimization lacks computational tractability in real-world implementation, and the uncertainty of the exogenous power demand makes exact optimization difficult. This paper presents a new solution framework to address these bottlenecks. The solution pivots on introducing power-sharing ratios to specify each cell’s power quota from the output power demand. To find the optimal power-sharing ratios, we formulate a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) problem to achieve power-loss-minimizing BESS operation while complying with safety, cell balancing, and power supply-demand constraints. We then propose a parameterized control policy for the power-sharing ratios, which utilizes only three parameters, to reduce the computational demand in solving the NMPC problem. This policy parameterization allows us to translate the NMPC problem into a Bayesian inference problem for the sake of 1) computational tractability, and 2) overcoming the nonconvexity of the optimization problem. We leverage the ensemble Kalman inversion technique to solve the parameter estimation problem. Concurrently, a low-level control loop is developed to seamlessly integrate our proposed approach with the BESS to ensure practical implementation. This low-level controller receives the optimal power-sharing ratios, generates output power references for the cells, and maintains a balance between power supply and demand despite uncertainty in output power. We conduct extensive simulations and experiments on a 20-cell prototype to validate the proposed approach.

Battery energy storage systems (BESSs)↗

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

pnnl/MCRASTA

McRasta (Markov Chain Rate and State Analysis) was developed to estimate parameter uncertainty in constitutive friction models via Bayesian inverse and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Fichera, Marissa [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Towards modeling phage therapy

Patients infected with life-threatening multi-drug resistant (MDR) bacteria have been treated with cocktails of bacteriophages. This is a complicated form of personalized medicine as the phages given to a patient have to be selected beforehand on the basis of their lytic capacity of the infecting bacteria. Because bacteria rapidly become resistant, the evolution of resistance to a diverse cocktail of phages is a complicated dynamical process, during which competing bacterial strains replace one another by accumulating several resistance mechanisms, each of which may involve a fitness cost. As a consequence, it is typically not known why a particular phage therapy succeeded or failed, and how one can optimize the composition of the cocktails to maximize the rate of success. To improve upon this, we extend an existing in vivo -calibrated mouse model into a novel mathematical model for the human situation, and include multiple phages infecting multiple bacterial strains, differing in their resistance to each of the phages. We adjust several parameter estimates of the bacterial model to the human situation, and use the model to describe a successful case of phage therapy involving several cocktails, each containing several phages. In the model, treatment success crucially depended on pretreatment resistance levels, and on the diversity and the timing of the cocktails. Once an appropriate cocktail is found, it is less important to further optimize the infection rates of the phages. Resistant bacterial strains expand rapidly when sensitive strains decline, and the higher the infectivity of the phages, the faster resistant strains expand. Because resistance evolves rapidly, it is best to provide a diverse set of phages right from the start of therapy, i.e., to hit hard and early, and create a high genetic barrier to bacterial resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hyporheic-zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights from a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model: Modeling Archive

This archive contains the data and Python scripts required to reproduce the analyses and figures in the study: Gomez-Velez, J. D., Rathore, S. S., Cohen, M. J., & Painter, S. L. (2025). Hyporheic-zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights from a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model. Submitted to Water Resources Research. The analysis utilizes the subgrid model Advection Dispersion Equation with Lagrangian Subgrids (ADELS) implemented in the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS; https://amanzi.github.io/ats/stable/). In this case, the ATS and Amanzi versions are (1) ATS version 1.5.1_f5ba18f8 and (2) Amanzi version 1.6-dev_53444cca4. The repository includes a Jupyter Notebook and the necessary data (Pandas DataFrames stored as pickle files) to generate the figures for the manuscript. Additionally, it contains Python scripts to create ATS input files, run the ATS simulations, and post-process the results. Finally, it provides routines for parameter estimation using the Single-Station Metabolism (SSM) model with the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm with ZS enhancements (DREAM-ZS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extraction of Vibration Data with Imaging

To date, the primary sensing technology used to measure the vibration response has been accelerometers and strain gages mounted directly to the structure and using either wired or, more recently, wireless telemetry. Cost issues with these sensors and the associated data acquisition systems typically limit the numbers that are deployed on in situ structures. Although there are a few structures with larger sensing counts that in some cases exceed over 1000 sensors, more typical numbers range from ten to one hundred sensors resulting in low spatial resolution when they are applied to physically large systems. When one considers that nuclear power plant structures usually have complex geometries, material properties, connectivity and boundary conditions, it is clear these current approaches to vibration measurements can only provide limited information about a system’s dynamics response characteristics. As an alternative, many non-contact measurement technologies have emerged, including point wise measurement methods such as Global Positioning System (GPS), microwave interferometry, and laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV), as well as simultaneous full-field measurement methods such as electronic speckle pattern interferometry, holography interferometry, and muon tomography, some of which can provide high spatial resolution measurements. Among these methods, digital video imaging techniques have emerged as a feasible solution for full-field vibration measurements that provide significantly more detailed dynamic response information because every pixel becomes a measurement point. Furthermore, recent advances in image processing and computer vision algorithms have been successfully used to process video data for experimental and operational modal analysis. Such full-field measurements have the potential to significantly improve many current structural assessment procedures including system identification (modal parameter estimation), structural health monitoring, load reconstruction, model validation, and model updating. Furthermore, more recent full-field imaging techniques can be accomplished with relatively low-cost, commercially-available off-the-shelf cameras. However, these measurement procedures have other limitations that must be considered such as the ability to only measure visibly accessible points on a structure and a more limited dynamic range and bandwidth than can be achieved with accelerometers or strain gages.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Improving the Parameterization of Cloud and Rain Microphysics in E3SM using Novel Observationally-Constrained Bayesian Approach (Final Technical Report)

In this project, we sought to develop new cloud and rain microphysics frameworks within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). This work encompassed two primary avenues of research: 1) Further development of a Bayesian-based scheme called BOSS (Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme) to represent cloud and rain microphysics, testing it in realistic high-resolution cloud models, and implementing it in E3SM; 2) Development of a methodology utilizing machine learning to enable computationally tractable use of tractable use of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian parameter estimation in Earth system and cloud models. In this project, we adapted the BOSS microphysics scheme, originally formulated for rain-only, to include all liquid-phase microphysical processes for cloud and rain, in particular the processes that mediate between these two categories, for example the conversion from cloud to rain through collision and coalescence of drops. We constrained the scheme via comparison and testing against a detailed model that explicitly represents the evolution of cloud and rain particles, called a bin microphysics scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Five Year Comparison of Mixing Height Determinations at the Savannah River Site

Air quality dispersion modeling is performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) to demonstrate compliance with applicable regulations. The AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) modeling system is an EPA recommended model for air quality applications with a data preprocessor (AERMET) to incorporate meteorological data collected on site. AERMET parameterizes or calculates meteorological variables that are not directly measured onsite. One of the parameters estimated by AERMET is the atmospheric mixing height. While the mixing height is not currently a measurement input into AERMET, SRS has the capability to measure the local mixing height. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) operates a Vaisala CL31 Lidar Ceilometer which estimates mixing height from aerosol backscatter. This study compares the parameterized mixing height from AERMET to the ceilometer estimated mixing height for the current regulatory period at SRS incorporating data from 2015-2019. Results from this study showed the average daily minimum values (morning) from AERMET were an order of magnitude lower than the commonly used Holzworth (1972) method and the ceilometer estimated mixing heights. Additionally, on average, the ceilometer exhibited a daily maximum mixing height value that occurred 1-3 hours later than the AERMET estimated maximum. This difference is likely due to the nighttime atmospheric mixing height assumptions and calculations used by AERMET. The AERMET algorithm cuts off mixing height growth at sunset while the ceilometer data show ongoing evening convection typical of the southeastern United States. These results suggest that the AERMET parametrization scheme assumptions may not be representative of a forested landscape and evening convection which could account for more mixing overnight. The results obtained in this study are significant for air dispersion modeling applications for regulatory purposes and worker safety. Mixing height can impact model estimated pollutant concentrations. A greater mixing height will provide more volume for pollutant dispersion. This report documents efforts to quantify the dependence of mixing height inputs toward a conservative estimated pollutant concentration.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Weak Form Scientific Machine Learning: Test Function Construction for System Identification

Weak form Scientific Machine Learning (WSciML) is a recently developed framework for data-driven modeling and scientific discovery. It leverages the weak form of equation error residuals to provide enhanced noise robustness in system identification via convolving model equations with test functions, reformulating the problem to avoid direct differentiation of data. The performance, however, relies on wisely choosing a set of compactly supported test functions. In this work, we mathematically motivate a novel data-driven method for constructing Single-scale-Local reference functions for creating the set of test functions. Our approach numerically approximates the integration error introduced by the quadrature and identifies the support size for which the error is minimal, without requiring access to the model parameter values. Through numerical experiments across various models, noise levels, and temporal resolutions, we demonstrate that the selected supports consistently align with regions of minimal parameter estimation error. We also compare the proposed method against the strategy for constructing Multi-scale-Global (and orthogonal) test functions introduced in our prior work, demonstrating the improved computational efficiency.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗

HDSense: An efficient method for ranking observable sensitivity

Identifying which observables most effectively constrain model parameters can be computationally prohibitive when considering full likelihoods of many correlated observables. This is especially important for, e.g., hadronization models, where high precision is required to interpret the results of collider experiments. We introduce the High-Dimensional Sensitivity (HDSense) score, a computationally efficient metric for ranking observable sets using only one-dimensional histograms. Derived by profiling over unknown correlations in the Fisher information framework, the score balances total information content against redundancy between observables. We apply HDSense to rank a set observables in terms of their constraining power with respect to five parameters of the Lund string model of hadronization implemented in Pythia using simulated leptonic collider events at the $Z$ pole. Validation against machine-learning--based full-likelihood approximations demonstrates that HDSense successfully identifies near-optimal observable subsets. The framework naturally handles data from multiple experiments with different acceptances and incorporates detector effects. While demonstrated on hadronization models, the methodology applies broadly to generic parameter estimation problems where correlations are unknown or difficult to model.

Assi, Benoît [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:00000003092433↗

A Theoretical Operational Model for Complex Experiments and its Invariance Theorems

We develop and systematize the Theoretical–Operational Model (TOM), a framework that treats preparation and measurement —including their operational residues— as intrinsic structures of physical theory. The central contribution is a principled geometric–algebraic organization of admissible operational deformations, formulated using quantum channels, renormalization-style flows, and information-geometric tools. Within this structure, operational residues and background processes are represented as effective morphisms attached to these operational components, whose invariants yield constraints on how theoretical parameters vary under specified classes of deformations. Illustrations drawn from muon–electron conversion, long-baseline neutrino oscillations, and quark–gluon-plasma phenomenology show how TOM maps operational effects into inferences about theoretical parameters, enables systematic cross-experimental comparisons, and stabilizes parameter estimation against defined deformation families. By embedding the operational layer—together with its residues—within a structured theoretical setting, TOM supports both theory testing and theory development, clarifying the conceptual relation between experimental realization and the physical quantities represented by the theory.

Pronskikh, Vitaly [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002518174↗

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗